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Author Topic: What's new in Antarctica ?  (Read 52220 times)

Laurent

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What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: October 27, 2013, 08:30:02 PM »
Metallica will play a show in Antartica !
http://todaynewsgazette.com/metallica-antarctica/

Laurent

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Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2013, 04:56:11 PM »
Delegates frustrated as talks to create huge Antarctic marine reserves fail
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/01/antarctic-marine-reserve-talks-fail

Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #3 on: November 17, 2013, 09:44:31 PM »
A question to solve the problem of the milankovitch cycle changing from 40.000 years to 120.000 years.

Where to find 1.5 million yr old ice for the IPICS “Oldest-Ice”
ice core
http://www.clim-past.net/9/2489/2013/cp-9-2489-2013.pdf

Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2014, 12:00:59 PM »

Laurent

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Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2014, 01:29:03 PM »
THE LOST WORLD OF LAKE VOSTOK

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AbruptSLR

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2014, 02:00:26 AM »
Selected quotes from the linked opinion article are as follow:

" Although the only form of exploration currently allowed in Antarctica is scientific — as the Antarctic Treaty, and the Protocol on Environmental Protection to this treaty, ban any other activities relating to the continent’s mineral resources — this may change in 2048 when the moratorium on exploration and exploitation is up for a review."

"Allocating a large budget to Antarctic research and hosting scientific facilities on the continent are considered suitable ways for a country to signal its presence in this territory, experts say such actions could aid future claims if access to fishing resources is expanded or access to mineral resources is ever granted.
 
“From 2048, only the consultative countries of the Antarctic Treaty will have the right to vote [on any proposed changes to the treaty],” says Marcello Melo da Gama, deputy secretary of Brazil’s Inter-ministerial Commission for the Resources of the Sea (CIRM), the national agency responsible for implementing the country’s Antarctic programme. Twenty-eight countries are consultative parties to the Antarctic Treaty because they were original signatories or now conduct substantial research in Antarctica.
 
“And countries need to have a presence in Antarctica and carry out scientific research there and even have a research base in order to become a consultative party — that is one of the political and strategic reasons to have a base in Antarctica.”
 
As a result, several nations are building or hoping to build new research centres on the continent. This year, both Brazil and China will build research stations."


http://www.trust.org/item/20140212132723-awc5o/?source=hppartner
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JackTaylor

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2014, 04:22:40 PM »
" Although the only form of exploration currently allowed in Antarctica is scientific — as the Antarctic Treaty, and the Protocol on Environmental Protection to this treaty, ban any other activities relating to the continent’s mineral resources — this may change in 2048 when the moratorium on exploration and exploitation is up for a review."

http://www.trust.org/item/20140212132723-awc5o/?source=hppartner

THANKS for the reminder on this, (2048 date).

Of note, from the link, is the additional
"tensions are quietly rising regarding sovereignty over the Antarctic continent and the resources on and around it"

Could be an interesting 34 years.

Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #10 on: April 12, 2014, 07:22:03 PM »

crandles

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #11 on: April 13, 2014, 01:22:51 AM »
Antarctic sea ice back up to positive anomaly of over 1.5 m Km^2.

2014.2712   1.5424454   5.8333502   4.2909045

Only 4 years have been higher and they are all recent: 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2013.

This puts global anomaly at nearly +1.1 the highest since 2008 reached +1.237 at a very similar time of year:

2014.2712   1.0981402  18.9336891  17.8355484
2008.2767   1.2369218  19.1605587  17.9236374

Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #12 on: April 25, 2014, 08:26:27 PM »
Paleoclimate studies suggest that increased global warmth during the Eocene epoch was greatly amplified at high latitudes, a state that climate models cannot fully reproduce. However, proxy estimates of Eocene near-Antarctic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have produced widely divergent results at similar latitudes, with SSTs above 20 °C in the southwest Pacific contrasting with SSTs between 5 and 15 °C in the South Atlantic.


http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/04/16/1321441111.abstract?sid=416fb7a8-dbf3-43d0-9dba-8b4bbcf0c1a0

Stephen

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #13 on: May 05, 2014, 06:55:07 AM »
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2226.html

New nature article suggest instability in Wilkes basin

Quote from Matthias Mengel of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
"The Wilkes is vulnerable because it is held in place by a small rim of ice, resting on bedrock below sea level by the coast of the frozen continent. That ice plug might melt away in coming centuries if ocean waters warm up."
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Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #14 on: June 17, 2014, 01:02:28 AM »
'Weedy thing' thrives as Antarctic shores warm
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-27831958

Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #15 on: June 30, 2014, 04:29:57 PM »
« Last Edit: June 30, 2014, 04:37:34 PM by Laurent »

DavidR

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #16 on: July 08, 2014, 01:16:49 AM »
Australian Scientists have identified a mechanism that  will accelerate the loss of Antarctic ice over the next Century.
"Warm water is likely to increasingly displace cold water around the Antarctic coastline, prompting accelerated ice melt and more sea level rise, according to new Australian research. "
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-07/giant-antarctic-ice-shelves-could-melt-faster-than-expected/5579678

wili

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #17 on: July 08, 2014, 03:00:45 PM »
So when you put all the accelerating factors toward increased slr that we have been hearing about for the past few months together, where does that put us?

Before all these studies, iirc, the consensus estimate was about one meter by the end of the century. So where are we now? A meter by mid-century? In thirty years? Twenty?...Two meters by century's end? Three? Four?

Has anyone put all these together to come up with new estimates with probabilities for each?

ASLR, are you out there?
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AbruptSLR

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #18 on: July 08, 2014, 06:59:37 PM »
wili,

First, no new published papers have yet been issued putting together all of these different recent accelerating factors, and no new expert survey's have been published reflecting any specific changes in SLR expert thought on this matter.  NOAA already has a curve showing 2m of SLR by 2100 for their "high range" value.

Second, as for myself, I have had essentially no change in my position on projected SLR by 2100 in my over 2,500 posts, so if you go to the "Philosophical" thread you can see my projections posted there from over 1.5 years ago, where I already assumed all of the findings just newly being published now.

Third, I doubt that policy makers will change any guidance on this matter for another several years (maybe 10-years), as they can still hide behind uncertainty until the glacier models become much more sophisticated than they current are.

Best,
ASLR
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AbruptSLR

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #19 on: July 08, 2014, 07:14:29 PM »
wili,

I guess that I should add that given the limitations of the glacial models, Eric Rignot is currently working on a Big Data approach to estimate coming SLR estimates; however, I have already seen articles by denialists saying that Big Data approaches are biased and cannot be relied upon by policy makers entrusted with the public purse.  Therefore, it appears that there will not be a global consensus on eustatic SLR anytime soon; which will leave various local authorities using different projections based on their risk tolerance.

Best,
ASLR

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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wili

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #20 on: July 08, 2014, 08:18:44 PM »
Thanks, ASLR. I wonder if a statistical number cruncher like tamino might take this on.

So just to be clear (and so I don't have to read again through all 2500+ of your wonderful posts, educational as that would be  :) ), you are sticking with Hansen's projection of 5 meters by 2100?
« Last Edit: July 08, 2014, 08:29:00 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

steve s

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #21 on: July 08, 2014, 08:37:35 PM »
Two meters by 2100 is roughly an inch or 2.5 cm per year on average. If, as most of us on this thread seem to think, this proves low estimate, policy makers will soon be forced to accept SLR as important. Actually, much earlier as Rignot has set the stage for the rate of change of the rate of change entering the public awareness as a justification.

("Let the cry ring out to all who will listen: To arms, to arms, for the Thwaites is coming.")

A Pyrrhic victory, no matter how soon the recognition comes, but sooner is better.


AbruptSLR

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #22 on: July 09, 2014, 12:21:11 AM »
wili,

As I live in California, and I am convinced that the world will more or less stay on a BAU pathway through at least 2050, I have provided the attached projections for RSLR in California for RCP 8.5 forcing scenario.  While these are close to Hansen's projections they are different on a number of counts, and a the third image shows an assumed grounding line retreat comparable to that stated by Rignot to be the onset of the rapid collapse phase for the ASE marine glaciers (the "WAIS Collapse" thread contains may other details):

(edit: note that these PDFs include all sources of RSLR and include a 1.4 multiplier on eustatic SLR contribution from the WAIS for the RSLR in California)

Best,
ASLR
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solartim27

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #23 on: July 18, 2014, 12:46:10 AM »
The CT chart shows a crash in the AASI anomaly of over 1M km2.  The graphs from the previous 2 years also show similar pauses in growth, but nothing that dramatic.  Anyone have any theories?
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.antarctic.png
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #24 on: July 18, 2014, 01:36:43 PM »
Cryosat2 data for Antarctica now out;

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060111/abstract

seems we saw west antarctica step up it's losses from 2005 to 2010 by 31%???
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AbruptSLR

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #25 on: July 18, 2014, 10:56:19 PM »
solartim 27,

Per the attached link, the AAO has been largely positive since about June 7 2014, so maybe this has changed the wind patterns sufficiently to slow the rate of Antarctic sea ice formation (particularly in the Weddell, and Ross, Seas):

http://ossfoundation.us/projects/environment/global-warming/antarctic-oscillation-aao

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #26 on: July 19, 2014, 03:37:08 PM »
Sleepy,

Thanks for the great legwork on this matter.  While the AAO still might be one contributing factor to the behavior you indicate, I also note that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) went negative in this general timeframe (which could encourage the export of warm winds from Australia southward; see attached the first attached image of the recent IOD history plot through July 13 2014, and the second attached figure of the IOD forecast, both by the BoM):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #27 on: July 23, 2014, 05:01:56 AM »
Sleepy (and AlanW),

Thanks again.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #28 on: August 10, 2014, 04:33:13 PM »
What to do when the power goes out in Antarctica
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26019-what-to-do-when-the-power-goes-out-in-antarctica.html?cmpid=RSS|NSNS|2012-GLOBAL|environment#.U-d-bZjodeQ

Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #29 on: August 21, 2014, 09:46:43 AM »

solartim27

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #30 on: August 31, 2014, 05:37:10 PM »
FNORD

Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #31 on: September 13, 2014, 09:21:33 AM »
26. August 2014: Greenhouse Gases in the Southern Ocean: First Evidence of Active Methane Emission at the Antarctic Seafloor
http://www.awi.de/en/news/press_releases/detail/item/greenhouse_gases_in_the_southern_ocean_first_evidence_of_active_methane_emission_at_the_antarctic_s/?tx_list_pi1[mode]=6&cHash=ac9056f0576b288b18d7c3989cf78865

Laurent

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Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #33 on: September 26, 2014, 12:50:12 AM »

Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #34 on: October 31, 2014, 09:55:31 PM »
China And Russia Block International Plan To Create Antarctic Ocean Sanctuary
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/31/plan-antarctic-ocean-sanctuary_n_6082986.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green

Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #35 on: November 29, 2014, 12:55:12 PM »
Researchers stock up on way to Antarctic
http://www.ecns.cn/2014/11-19/143291.shtml

China's 31st Antarctic expedition group is set to call in at Hobart, Australia, to pick up supplies before continuing its journey aboard the Xuelong, or Snow Dragon, the country's only research icebreaker.

Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #36 on: December 02, 2014, 01:35:29 PM »
A complete breeding failure in an Adélie penguin colony correlates with unusual and extreme environmental events
http://www.ecography.org/accepted-article/complete-breeding-failure-adelie-penguin-colony-correlates-unusual-and-extreme

Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #37 on: December 20, 2014, 10:33:15 AM »
Antarctic photo science archive unlocked
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30471542

Sigmetnow

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #38 on: December 29, 2014, 03:21:37 PM »
What happened to the tourist/research ship that got stuck in Antarctic ice last year.  Some of their findings on sea flow and marine life were quite surprising.
Article and 20-min video.
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/dec/25/rescued-scientists-warning-from-antarctica
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #39 on: January 10, 2015, 10:58:38 AM »

AbruptSLR

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #40 on: January 10, 2015, 05:37:48 PM »
While I have seen some minor criticisms that Richard Alley can be too caution, I disagree with such criticisms, given the state of our current decision making system/process.  Therefore, I would like to congratulate Richard Alley on winning the 2015 BBVA Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Award in the Climate Change category, for his pioneering work on abrupt climate change.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-bbva-foundation-frontiers-of-knowledge-award-goes-to-richard-alley-the-interpreter-of-ice-who-uncovered-the-evidence-of-sudden-climate-changes-300018445.html

Extract: "The seventh annual BBVA Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Award in the Climate Change category goes to U.S. glaciologist Richard Alley for his "pioneering research" into the "mechanics of ice and its implications for abrupt climate change," in the words of the jury's citation."

Also see:
http://www.fbbva.es/TLFU/tlfu/ing/microsites/premios/fronteras/index.jsp
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Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #41 on: January 12, 2015, 10:15:40 AM »
Should tourists be banned from Antarctica?
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-30709924

Yuha

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #42 on: January 18, 2015, 03:48:16 PM »

Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #43 on: January 21, 2015, 05:32:03 PM »

solartim27

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FNORD

AbruptSLR

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #45 on: January 24, 2015, 05:33:49 PM »
Did Meteorite Carve Icy Antarctic Crater?
http://www.livescience.com/49398-antarctica-ice-meteorite-crater-found.html


The nearly 2 miles (3 kilometers) wide ring of sunken ice on the Roi Baudoin Ice Shelf in East Antarctica is most likely not an meteor impact crater but instead is actually an ice doline formed by water draining out of a sub-ice-surface lake (see linked article below).

http://www.nbcnews.com/science/weird-science/scientists-shoot-down-meteorite-theory-antarctica-crater-mystery-n292326
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Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #46 on: February 03, 2015, 08:43:25 PM »
Lewis Pugh to undertake 'world's most dangerous swim' in Antarctic for campaign to make Ross Sea a protected area
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/lewis-pugh-to-undertake-worlds-most-dangerous-swim-in-antarctic-for-campaign-to-make-ross-sea-a-protected-area-10021130.html

Laurent

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #47 on: February 04, 2015, 10:16:43 AM »
Subglacial Lake Vostok cracked for a second time
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26907-subglacial-lake-vostok-cracked-for-a-second-time.html?cmpid=RSS|NSNS|2012-GLOBAL|environment#.VNHhO2N3_z8

johnm33

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #48 on: February 04, 2015, 11:31:42 AM »

Jim Hunt

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Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #49 on: February 04, 2015, 01:14:17 PM »
Anyone have a sub to N.S. to access this?

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