Here's a comment Hyperion made in the wrong thread:
Thanks slow wing. Especially for pointing out my elderly muddleheaded mixuped mismemoring of the enthalpy of vapourisation figure. How embarrassing to under calculate a figure by some 500 times.
And you Jai. Wish I had more time right now to read those papers. Very busy day unfortunately. These worldwide changes to the circulation patterns we are used to seem to be happening almost hour by hour right now. It does seem like, particularly in the polar regions the tropopause has lifted suddenly and dramatically as predicted by some models and proposed as necessary for single cell circulation regimes in past equable climates. As for whether I'm a magnitude out in those estimated flow rates? As an engineer you tend to go "how bad could it get? What is the level of safety we need built in to handle it?" the precautionary principle with a mind to the future is the mindset. Not scientific understatement, with no credibility placed on any data but the solidly studied and proven historic data. And so I think it is possibly the best introduction we currently have, to what to expect in the late Arctic summer to observe whats going on down south here right now. That TPW fist that was heading for the Antarctic peninsula is now there. 15kg/sqm of water aboard and suddenly the whole peninsula is hotter by 6-10 degC. Up to 6 above freezing in places. The one heading for Ross, south of NZ is packing 30kg/sqm and came from mainly over Australia. The Fist from the Indian Ocean Tropics is packing 45kg/sqm and just about to pass the Kerguellens at 52 sth and ram East Antarctica.
The huge 930hpa low taking up the whole space between Australia and Antarctica is the scariest mother I've ever seen, and looks capable of grabbing the whole of the Pacific Tropical airmass and squeezing all of it out on Antarctica. Especially as it comes across and meshes with the Anticyclone taking up nearly all the cental south pacific. Also absurdly large.
No I don't think its usual for the whole of the south Pacific trades to be turned from the tropics and sprayed on Antarctica Tigertown. It happened two weeks ago. There's even some of the Trades from Nth of the equator being pulled into the flow that just hit the Antarctic Peninsula, and the big puddle that just grazed our New Zealand east coast that's setting itself up to be shot south from between those two Flywheels.
Your Nth Atlantic Storm is looking serious. Its very tall, above 30km. Reckon its going to do much the same with the atlantic Tropical Air. We seem to have transitioned to a primarily Ferral cell circulation mode. The angular momentum of Polewards air is being stored in the jets, and retrieved by the high altitude equator wise backflows IMHO. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=total_precipitable_water/azimuthal_equidistant=159.15,-58.94,371