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Author Topic: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc  (Read 27008 times)

solartim27

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #100 on: October 27, 2016, 10:10:50 PM »
Posted by https://www.facebook.com/SkepticalScience/?hc_ref=NEWSFEED&fref=nf

http://qz.com/817354/scientists-have-been-forecasting-that-burning-fossil-fuels-will-cause-climate-change-as-early-as-1882/
A 1912 news article ominously forecasted the catastrophic effects of fossil fuels on climate change

"A short news clip from a New Zealand paper published in 1912 has gone viral as an example of an early news story to make the connection between burning fossil fuels and climate change.
It wasn’t, however, the first article to suggest that our love for coal was wreaking destruction on our environment that would lead to climate change. The theory—now widely accepted as scientific reality—was mentioned in the news media as early as 1883, and was discussed in scientific circles much earlier than that."

FNORD

AbruptSLR

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #101 on: November 10, 2016, 08:12:25 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "NASA's space-based maps of carbon dioxide emissions". Hopefully, such tools will (may) allow us to make better decisions:

https://cosmosmagazine.com/climate/nasa-s-space-based-map-of-carbon-dioxide-emissions

Extract: "Carbon dioxide emissions have been mapped in high resolution by NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite, showing widespread carbon dioxide across major urban areas and smaller pockets of high emissions emanating from individual cities."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #102 on: November 15, 2016, 07:42:47 PM »
I have previously posted similar information on this matter in the Conservative Scientist thread (as it is still not clear whether we will get off the RCP 8.5 scenario or not, see the two attached images); however, it should also be posted in this the thread as well.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/what-global-co2-emissions-2016-mean-climate-change

“Emissions have levelled out, but it’s too early to say whether that’s a peak in global emissions. First of all, we’d need to see emissions going down…Then after that, we’d need several years, maybe even a decade, to be confident that it was actually a peak.”
First things first, we need to first see where the final figure for 2016 ends up. The scientists’ central projection is for a 0.2% rise, but uncertainties inherent in these kind of carbon budget calculations means fossil fuel emissions could fall by as much as 1%, or rise by up to 1.8%. There’s even a 32% chance the figure could be outside both of these limits, say the scientists."

See also:
Le Quéré, C. et al. (2016) Global carbon budget 2016. Earth System Science Data. DOI: 10.5194/essd-8-1-2016
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #103 on: November 17, 2016, 12:14:32 AM »
The linked reference indicates that there are more abandoned well than previously believe that may (or are) leak methane gas; while the following linked article indicates that most likely Donald J. Trump will likely gut Obama's tighter regulations to control such methane leaks from wells:

Mary Kang, et. al. (2016), "Identification and characterization of high methane-emitting abandoned oil and gas wells", PNAS, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1605913113

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2016/11/08/1605913113

Significance: "Millions of abandoned oil and gas wells exist across the United States and around the world. Our study analyzes historical and new field datasets to quantify the number of abandoned wells in Pennsylvania, individual and cumulative methane emissions, and the attributes that help explain these emissions. We show that (i) methane emissions from abandoned wells persist over multiple years and likely decades, (ii) high emitters appear to be unplugged gas wells and plugged/vented gas wells, as required in coal areas, and (iii) the number of abandoned wells may be as high as 750,000 in Pennsylvania alone. Knowing the attributes of high emitters will lead to cost-effective mitigation strategies that target high methane-emitting wells."

Abstract: "Recent measurements of methane emissions from abandoned oil/gas wells show that these wells can be a substantial source of methane to the atmosphere, particularly from a small proportion of high-emitting wells. However, identifying high emitters remains a challenge. We couple 163 well measurements of methane flow rates; ethane, propane, and n-butane concentrations; isotopes of methane; and noble gas concentrations from 88 wells in Pennsylvania with synthesized data from historical documents, field investigations, and state databases. Using our databases, we (i) improve estimates of the number of abandoned wells in Pennsylvania; (ii) characterize key attributes that accompany high emitters, including depth, type, plugging status, and coal area designation; and (iii) estimate attribute-specific and overall methane emissions from abandoned wells. High emitters are best predicted as unplugged gas wells and plugged/vented gas wells in coal areas and appear to be unrelated to the presence of underground natural gas storage areas or unconventional oil/gas production. Repeat measurements over 2 years show that flow rates of high emitters are sustained through time. Our attribute-based methane emission data and our comprehensive estimate of 470,000–750,000 abandoned wells in Pennsylvania result in estimated state-wide emissions of 0.04–0.07 Mt (1012 g) CH4 per year. This estimate represents 5–8% of annual anthropogenic methane emissions in Pennsylvania. Our methodology combining new field measurements with data mining of previously unavailable well attributes and numbers of wells can be used to improve methane emission estimates and prioritize cost-effective mitigation strategies for Pennsylvania and beyond."

See the relevant article on Trump likely walking-back Obama's tighter methane emission regulations:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/11/this-is-the-other-way-that-trump-could-worsen-global-warming/?utm_term=.668fcd59cef1

Extract: "… Trump is also expected to seek to reverse or undermine another set of Obama policies meant to curb climate change that focus not on carbon dioxide, the most notorious greenhouse gas, but rather methane …

… Obama’s 45 percent reduction target for methane emissions by 2025 now appears unlikely to happen, says Stanford’s Jackson …"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

DrTskoul

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #104 on: January 22, 2017, 05:27:21 PM »
2014 US end use CO2 emissions by sector ( from the "United States Mid-Century Strategy FOR DEEP DECARBONIZATION" - Nov 2016)


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DrTskoul

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #105 on: January 22, 2017, 05:30:28 PM »
Since the server got scrubbed I am attaching original. 

edIt: found here

https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/docs/mid_century_strategy_report-final.pdf
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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ecojosh

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #106 on: January 25, 2017, 12:30:24 AM »
Daily average CO2 levels "unavailable" at NOAA since January 21.  Is this concerning or just a bad coincident? https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html

DrTskoul

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #107 on: January 25, 2017, 12:55:32 AM »
Coincidence I hope... It happens regularly...
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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MrVisible

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #108 on: January 25, 2017, 09:56:44 PM »
Does anyone know what's going on with earth.nullschool.net's CO2sc readings?

From what I'm seeing, sometime late on the night of the 23rd, the readings went wonky. It's gone all grey and blue instead of its usual orange and red. I'm guessing a worldwide overnight jump of 30ppm is somewhat unlikely?

DrTskoul

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #109 on: January 26, 2017, 03:42:35 AM »
It is the hot air coming from the White House....
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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Darvince

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #110 on: January 26, 2017, 10:29:14 PM »
Reposting from the 2016/17 freezing season thread...

If you read the documentation for nullschool, you will note that the creator pulls the data from the GEOS-5 model, which for some reason output data with a global average of 368ppm. GEOS-5 has been updated, and now produces correct CO2 data, but nullschool still does the adjustment resulting in the global average appearing to be in the upper 430ppms, when in reality it is 405ppm as can be viewed if you visit the CO2 threads elsewhere on the forum.

Edit:
It wasn't a smooth transition at all:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/01/24/0130Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=co2sc/orthographic=-35.74,28.27,463
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/01/24/0430Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=co2sc/orthographic=-35.74,28.27,463

Tigertown

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #111 on: January 27, 2017, 01:06:48 AM »
Mauna Loa is way above sea level. Earth NS shows surface concentration. I have no idea how the two vary, to be honest. I do know that surface concentrations have gone up, a lot, and despite any re-calibrations. Darvince pointed out about the 32 ppm, ENS usually adds. Perhaps they are still adding it, despite no longer needing to. I don't doubt that at all, but we still have a big problem. I know the CO2 in the atmosphere is going to have a bigger effect on warming, as a GHG.
What effects will the surface concentration have on living things? High levels have been shown to make trees more susceptible to insects and disease, but what about other plant life and ocean life?
Here is a video time lapse over the year 2016.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oc2JNZiB_Lo

MrVisible

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #112 on: January 27, 2017, 01:36:17 AM »
What effects will the surface concentration have on living things? High levels have been shown to make trees more susceptible to insects and disease, but what about other plant life and ocean life?


My question is, what about mammals? Specifically, what about us?

It would be pretty straightforward to run multigenerational lab rat experiments to explore the effects of elevated carbon dioxide on mammals, but I can't find any.

It does, however, take a surprisingly small rise in ambient CO2 to impair cognition in the short term.

This paper is a good discussion of the current state of our knowledge on the subject.


Tigertown

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #113 on: January 27, 2017, 02:45:48 AM »
@MrVisible
I don't know much about long term but we are all exposed to high levels for shorter terms on a regular basis.

www.co2meter.com/blogs/news/co2-levels-at-home

MrVisible

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #114 on: January 27, 2017, 02:57:36 AM »
I know, I got interested enough in the subject to buy a CO2 monitor last year, and I've been surprised at how difficult it is to keep my house below 1000 parts per million.

For millions of years, humans rarely experienced a CO2 level above 400; now it's the lowest we'll ever see. We can see measurable short-term and medium-term effects at surprisingly low levels.

Since we're headed for what, 600ppm at the minimum, it would make sense to me to do some experimentation to find out what sort of effects that will have on us.

Tigertown

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #115 on: January 27, 2017, 03:40:14 AM »
That would be good to know. I have a good idea what kind of effects not having anything to eat for lack of being able to grow it, would have.

nicibiene

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #116 on: January 27, 2017, 09:55:44 AM »
Just had a look at the measured here in Germany:

http://www.dwd.de/DE/forschung/atmosphaerenbeob/zusammensetzung_atmosphaere/spurengase/inh_nav/klimagase_node.html



 :o ??? anyone with other database than Hawaii?
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DoomInTheUK

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #117 on: January 27, 2017, 12:06:05 PM »
I think it'll be a while before we get to levels that effect us directly.

https://www.kane.co.uk/knowledge-centre/what-are-safe-levels-of-co-and-co2-in-rooms

More than 1,000ppm before complaints of drowsiness.

Paddy

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #118 on: January 27, 2017, 12:20:46 PM »
Agreed, and even the higher concentrations in cities should ease with the rise of electric cars.

MrVisible

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #119 on: January 27, 2017, 02:16:12 PM »
I think it'll be a while before we get to levels that effect us directly.

https://www.kane.co.uk/knowledge-centre/what-are-safe-levels-of-co-and-co2-in-rooms

More than 1,000ppm before complaints of drowsiness.

People complain about drowsiness (also measurable loss of cognitive ability) at 1,000ppm in the short term; doesn't that make you wonder if the constantly increasing ambient CO2 levels might have some long-term effects?

Most people spend a good portion of their days indoors at 1,000 ppm or higher. 280ppm used to be the norm; now people will never see that in their lifetimes. Soon the ambient level will be over 600, which means increasing your indoor exposure levels even more.

I'm just suggesting that experiments to figure out what that actually does to people would be helpful.

crandles

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #120 on: January 27, 2017, 07:54:54 PM »
Just had a look at the measured here in Germany:

 :o ??? anyone with other database than Hawaii?

It happens from time to time.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=OXK&program=ccgg&type=ts

Tigertown

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #121 on: January 28, 2017, 07:47:53 PM »
By the way:
Earth Null School has removed the extra 32 ppm of sc CO2 from their model and the numbers showing now are actual and they are still not good, some places are as high as 440 ppm plus in Asia, Europe, and Putin Land.

NY city is at about 428 ppm, Atlanta about 425 ppm, and the rest of the U.S. between 420 and 428 ppm. This thing with checking levels at Mauna Loa which is 11,150 ft or about 3400 m above sea level and putting that out as a standard of where we are at is a bunch of crap.

DrTskoul

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #122 on: January 28, 2017, 08:36:03 PM »
MLCO2
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

AbruptSLR

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #123 on: March 20, 2017, 09:35:54 PM »
Here is a plot of the Mauna Loa Methane concentrations from 2015 to March 20 2017.  I do not see any reduction in the trend line.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #124 on: March 20, 2017, 10:26:13 PM »
By the way:
Earth Null School has removed the extra 32 ppm of sc CO2 from their model and the numbers showing now are actual and they are still not good, some places are as high as 440 ppm plus in Asia, Europe, and Putin Land.

NY city is at about 428 ppm, Atlanta about 425 ppm, and the rest of the U.S. between 420 and 428 ppm. This thing with checking levels at Mauna Loa which is 11,150 ft or about 3400 m above sea level and putting that out as a standard of where we are at is a bunch of crap.
That Keeling guy set it up there as he reckoned the readings would not be affected by local condtions - e.g. trucks and autos, steelworks, coal-powered electricity power stations et al. Smart move. It is the source of 50+ years of unpolluted data. Does it reflect conditions in NY or the coal regions of NE China ? No. Is it still the best measure of additional CO2 in the atmosphere ? Yes.


Shared Humanity

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #125 on: March 21, 2017, 02:44:14 PM »
Here is a plot of the Mauna Loa Methane concentrations from 2015 to March 20 2017.  I do not see any reduction in the trend line.

Interesting the reduced variability of CO2 measurements at minimum when compared to the rest of the year. Does this happen consistently (farther back in the record)?

AbruptSLR

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Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« Reply #126 on: March 21, 2017, 04:15:26 PM »
Here is a plot of the Mauna Loa Methane concentrations from 2015 to March 20 2017.  I do not see any reduction in the trend line.

Interesting the reduced variability of CO2 measurements at minimum when compared to the rest of the year. Does this happen consistently (farther back in the record)?

First, the March 20 plot and the attached March 21 2017 plot, are both for methane not CO2 at Mauna Loa,  while the attached plot beginning with 2010 data shows an acceleration in methane concentration after 2013 (you can plot your own graph at the link below).

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson