Mauna Loa CO2

[AbruptSLR]

I'm curious why the hourly averages on Feb. 18 nearly all soar above the daily average on the 18th.  Other dates on the graph (2 posts above, and reproduced below) have daily averages 'looking like' averages.

Tor,
As this also appear on the attached NOAA plot thru Feb 22 2016, I suspect that it is not a graphing error.  Possibly it is due to the hour of the day some of the high points went to the 19th, leaving the 18th lower than eyeballing the plot:
Best,
ASLR

[Pmt111500]

Week of 21-27th February 2016 scored 404.35 ppm at Mauna Loa CO2-scale. This is 3.33 ppm higher score than last year. The continued development towards higher scores is emphazised by the fact that ten years ago the same score was only 381.99 ppm. There's no knowing how high this score might end up, does the score board have only 5 digits and reset at 1000.00? Should we then talk of 1 ppt + 10 ppm or what? What should we do about ppbs?

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot shows that the March 2 2016 Mauna Loa CO2 concentration is now in record territory (I suspect widespread fires in the tropical rainforests):

[jai mitchell]

doesn't the peak always occur around this time of the year due to NH growing season just starting?

[bosbas]

The peak is always in May.

[Pmt111500]

The peak is always in May.

Yea, the last years' trash takes a while to get processed. I've rather hoped this date would get earlier as the winters warm so the plants would be more ready to adapt to the rising levels. I don't remeber the exact average date for peak, but early may it is. In southern parts, of the seasonal growth regions, the balance of intake and exhale is reached earlier of course, but it's the matter of balancing the whole globe.

[AbruptSLR]

The peak is always in May.

Yea, the last years' trash takes a while to get processed. I've rather hoped this date would get earlier as the winters warm so the plants would be more ready to adapt to the rising levels. I don't remeber the exact average date for peak, but early may it is. In southern parts, of the seasonal growth regions, the balance of intake and exhale is reached earlier of course, but it's the matter of balancing the whole globe.

Per the attached Mauna Loa CO2 plot through March 2 2016, the peak normally comes just before Mid-May:

[Pmt111500]

Thanks ASRL for the more accurate date, I remembered that was around the 10th.

[Shared Humanity]

The peak is always in May.

Yea, the last years' trash takes a while to get processed. I've rather hoped this date would get earlier as the winters warm so the plants would be more ready to adapt to the rising levels. I don't remeber the exact average date for peak, but early may it is. In southern parts, of the seasonal growth regions, the balance of intake and exhale is reached earlier of course, but it's the matter of balancing the whole globe.

Per the attached Mauna Loa CO2 plot through March 2 2016, the peak normally comes just before Mid-May:

Looking at this, will we see values below 400 ppm this year in the fall?

[AbruptSLR]

The peak is always in May.

Yea, the last years' trash takes a while to get processed. I've rather hoped this date would get earlier as the winters warm so the plants would be more ready to adapt to the rising levels. I don't remeber the exact average date for peak, but early may it is. In southern parts, of the seasonal growth regions, the balance of intake and exhale is reached earlier of course, but it's the matter of balancing the whole globe.

Per the attached Mauna Loa CO2 plot through March 2 2016, the peak normally comes just before Mid-May:

Looking at this, will we see values below 400 ppm this year in the fall?

Not in your lifetime.

[Shared Humanity]

The peak is always in May.

Yea, the last years' trash takes a while to get processed. I've rather hoped this date would get earlier as the winters warm so the plants would be more ready to adapt to the rising levels. I don't remeber the exact average date for peak, but early may it is. In southern parts, of the seasonal growth regions, the balance of intake and exhale is reached earlier of course, but it's the matter of balancing the whole globe.

Per the attached Mauna Loa CO2 plot through March 2 2016, the peak normally comes just before Mid-May:

Looking at this, will we see values below 400 ppm this year in the fall?

Not in your lifetime.

Are you suggesting I'm not going to make it to September? 

[Pmt111500]

Are you suggesting I'm not going to make it to September? 

I think that might translate to:
"even if all the years, in the future of our collective asses, would be labelled 2016, there would be no septembers nor any other months of 30 days of duration, labelled september, of under 400 ppm."  But as some have suggested there might be a daily reading or a few under this. Not that I believe so.

[AbruptSLR]

Are you suggesting I'm not going to make it to September? 

I think that might translate to:
"even if all the years, in the future of our collective asses, would be labelled 2016, there would be no septembers nor any other months of 30 days of duration, labelled september, of under 400 ppm."  But as some have suggested there might be a daily reading or a few under this. Not that I believe so.

Thanks for the clarification

[AbruptSLR]

The linked article indicates both that: (1) 2015 had the highest annual level of CO₂ increase in the last 56 years of Mauna Loa readings; and that (2) the year on year CO₂ concentration change from Feb 2015 to Feb 2016 was 3.76 ppm; which was the highest year on year change recorded on the past 56 years.

http://nhv.us/content/16034854-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-level-rises-most-2015-noaa-report

Extract: "A surprising rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration has been witnessed in 2015, marking the highest level of CO2 rise in the last 56 years. For the last four years, CO2 level in the atmosphere has gone up by two or more parts per million each year. The increase is more than the level seen in other periods dating back to 1959, said a scientist from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Earth System Research Laboratory.
Pieter Tans, lead scientist of NOAA’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network, said that the change in the average concentrations between February 2015 and February 2016 was 3.76 parts per million at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii."


See also:
http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2016/0311/CO2-levels-reached-new-peak-in-2015

&
http://mashable.com/2016/03/10/carbon-dioxide-increased-by-record-amount-in-2015/#JmMhEJ9A3PqS

[Pmt111500]

Oops, almost missed the last week of Mauna Loa measurements. I see no point in following the daily numbers as they might be influenced by the volcano by uncertain amounts, instead, the weekly numbers may say something of the state of the nearby ocean:
Period           Week             Atmospheric CO2
Last Week    Feb. 28 - Mar. 5, 2016    404.01 ppm
1 Year Ago    Feb. 28 - Mar. 5, 2015    401.12 ppm
10 Years Ago Feb. 28 - Mar. 5, 2006    382.13 ppm

[Shared Humanity]

The linked article indicates both that: (1) 2015 had the highest annual level of CO₂ increase in the last 56 years of Mauna Loa readings; and that (2) the year on year CO₂ concentration change from Feb 2015 to Feb 2016 was 3.76 ppm; which was the highest year on year change recorded on the past 56 years.

http://nhv.us/content/16034854-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-level-rises-most-2015-noaa-report

Extract: "A surprising rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration has been witnessed in 2015, marking the highest level of CO2 rise in the last 56 years. For the last four years, CO2 level in the atmosphere has gone up by two or more parts per million each year. The increase is more than the level seen in other periods dating back to 1959, said a scientist from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Earth System Research Laboratory.
Pieter Tans, lead scientist of NOAA’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network, said that the change in the average concentrations between February 2015 and February 2016 was 3.76 parts per million at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii."


See also:
http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2016/0311/CO2-levels-reached-new-peak-in-2015

&
http://mashable.com/2016/03/10/carbon-dioxide-increased-by-record-amount-in-2015/#JmMhEJ9A3PqS

We're going to need a few more windmills. 

[jai mitchell]

CO2 record increase values corresponded to a slowdown in the global economy http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35797209

The increase is due to carbon cycle feedbacks associated with the El Nino.

[AbruptSLR]

CO2 record increase values corresponded to a slowdown in the global economy http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35797209

The increase is due to carbon cycle feedbacks associated with the El Nino.

Probably due both to: (a) carbon cycle feedbacks associated with the Super El Nino, & (b) increased transfer of global production to nations that keep poor emission records.

[Pmt111500]

Mauna Loa Last Week, March 6 - 12, 2016, [CO2 (atm)] = 403.97 ppm
 which is 2.09 ppm rise from
1 Year Ago, March 6 - 12, 2015, with [CO2 (atm)] = 401.88 ppm ,
and which is +21.06 ppm from
10 Years Ago, March 6 - 12, 2006, with [CO2 (atm)] 382.91 ppm

It looks like the immediate effect of El Nino to the atmospheric levels of CO2 near the measurement site has temporarily subsided and more closely matches to what has been seen for the last 50 years. The average yearly peak is still almost two months away, so I'm expecting a sharp peak. The first flowers of spring have been spotted even in Finland, but there's a prediction of colder week so the plant growth hasn't actually started yet here.

[AbruptSLR]

The attached NOAA image shows that the daily Mauna Loa CO2 concentration for March 18 2016, reached a new all time high of 407.12ppm:

[Pmt111500]

On the week of March 13 - 19, 2016 , at Mauna Loa the measured, pretty reliable, average of CO₂-portion in the atmosphere was 404.74 ppm, some 3.72 ppm more than on the week of March 13 - 19, 2015 when at Mauna Loa the measured, pretty reliable, average of CO₂-portion in the atmosphere was 401.02 ppm. The March 13 - 19, 2016 , at Mauna Loa the measured, pretty reliable, average of CO₂-portion in the atmosphere was also some 21.87 ppm more than on the week of March 13 - 19, 2006 when at Mauna Loa the measured, pretty reliable, average of CO₂-portion in the atmosphere was 382.97 ppm.

Using the larger unit, as in "0,40474 ‰", is likely not yet warranted since the current CO₂-portion in the atmosphere at Mauna Loa would round to zero, if we would be capable of using just the cardinal numbers, as in "one, two, three...", etc. But it must be noted that a skilled speaker or another kind of performer may excite a crowd of very large cardinal number of people to doing or not-doing things. The inverse of the current CO₂-portion in the atmosphere at Mauna Loa is ~2471, so you may imagine a Justin Bieber-concert, where this kind of thing might be going on.

[AbruptSLR]

In the linked article Joe Romm makes an effort to discuss why atmospheric CO₂ levels are soaring (indeed they are currently following a BAU pathway*) at a time when anthropogenic fossil fuel CO₂ emissions are theoretically flat.  While Romm makes some good points (& the article is worth reading), climate change is a "wicked problem" and our situation is much worse that what he is conveying:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/03/21/3761903/co2-levels-soar-emissions-flat/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=cptop3

Extract: "A crucial point is that, based on actual observations and measurements, the world’s top carbon cycle experts have determined that the land and oceans are becoming steadily less effective at removing excess CO2 from the atmosphere, as I reported last year. This makes it more urgent for us to start cutting carbon pollution ASAP, since it will become progressively harder and harder for us to do so effectively in the coming decades.
In particular, the defrosting permafrost and the resultant release of CO2 and methane turns part of the land sink into a source of airborne greenhouse gases. Similarly, as global warming increases forest and peatland fires — burning trees and vegetation — that also turns one part of the land carbon sink into a source of atmospheric CO2. So does ever-worsening droughts that scientists are observing in the United States southwest and other parts of the world.
We are destroying nature’s ability to help us stave off catastrophic climate change. “Clearly nature is helping us” deal with atmospheric CO2 right now much more than it will be decades to come, as Dr. Josep (Pep) Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project, told me last year. Ultimately this is one more reason why delaying action to cut carbon pollution is a costly and dangerous mistake."

* To be clearer, RCP 8.5/BAU is not a linearly increasing pathway, but slowly increases nonlinearly, as illustrated by the example that on March 25 2016 the Mauna Loa CO2 concentration was 405.83ppm, while on March 25 2015 it was 400.88ppm.

[bosbas]

Latest value:
Week beginning on March 20, 2016: 405.62 ppm
That is 4.19 ppm more than a year ago - a new record for a yearly increase of the weekly average? Makes me wonder when we will have a redo of the Paris talks - but maybe I am exaggerating, and once the current El Nino goes away these big increases will come down with it - at least, I hope so.

[crandles]

Latest value:
Week beginning on March 20, 2016: 405.62 ppm
That is 4.19 ppm more than a year ago - a new record for a yearly increase of the weekly average?

Not quite, recently there was
2016   1  31  2016.0833    404.55  5           400.20
an increase of 4.35

further ago there was also:

1998   9   6  1998.6808    364.56  6           359.89
an increase of 4.67
2013   2   3  2013.0918    396.67  7           392.16
increase of 4.51
1998   9  27  1998.7384    364.10  7           359.61
an increase of 4.49

[silkman]

New record at Mauna Loa with a month or so to go to the expected peak. A single daily reading means little but seems to be increasingly unlikely that this year's trough will be south of 400 ppm.

With 410 ppm already on the horizon the chance of limiting the increase to <450 has to be extremely small.

[Pmt111500]

Sorry been too exhausted to report the values of Mauna Loa weekly carbon dioxide averages for the past month since there's been some more society-related stuff going on in my life. This stupidish service might continue in a week or two, but that's not entirely up to me. Again sorry for the pause of taking a copy of the co2today site readings  and associating it with poorly constructed filler texts.
Too tired to write the fillers now, so here  just the numbers for some week that ended lately.
Last Week

March 27 - April 2, 2016

405.41 ppm

1 Year Ago

March 27 - April 2, 2015

402.43 ppm

10 Years Ago

March 27 - April 2, 2006

382.42 ppm

[crandles]

2014  10    2014.792      395.95   
2014  11    2014.875      397.27   
2014  12    2014.958      398.84   
2015   1    2015.042      399.96     
2015   2    2015.125      400.26     
2015   3    2015.208      401.52     
2015   4    2015.292      403.26     
...     
2015  10    2015.792      398.29     up 2.34
2015  11    2015.875      400.16     up 2.89
2015  12    2015.958      401.85     up 3.01
2016   1    2016.042      402.52      up 2.56
2016   2    2016.125      404.02      up 3.76
2016   3    2016.208      404.83      up 3.31

March 98 at 367.13 compared to March 97 of 364.47 is only up 2.66 and the differences following that El Nino reached their peak in Sept 98 at 364.01 vs 360.31 an increase of 3.7.

Not really sure whether that means the differences still have some way to grow over next few months or whether this El Nino is just different with peak CO2 rise occurring earlier.

[Sigmetnow]

Bill McKibben: Daily co2 measurement at Mauna Loa crosses 407 ppm. Maybe more important than where the Dow stands...
https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/718862170218434560

[Pmt111500]

April 3 - 9,  the last week without personal butterfly observations on year 2016 in southwestern Finland, had 406.57 ppm of CO2 at Mauna Loa, approximately, that is to say the exact number of moles measured is impossible to determine with current tech. This is way more than last year 2015
when 402.93 ppm was measured. I do not remember the butterfly situation last year, but likely they were in flight already. I should check the records regarding the butterfly observations 10 Years Ago, but at Mauna Loa 384.62 ppm of CO2 was observed.

Still no personal observations of Nymphalis xanthomelas, though the species has been seen on flight in southern Finland on year 2016 already, and the location I checked yesterday has been a home to this southestern species in Europe during recent years.

[Barthol]

NOAA reports a daily average for april 10 of:
409.34 PPM

[Sigmetnow]

NOAA reports a daily average for april 10 of:
409.34 PPM

And that is their All Time High.  409.34 ppm in air April 10, 2016
[The yellow dots.]

... NOAA Mauna Loa data via co2.earth/daily-co2

https://twitter.com/co2_earth/status/719526440207667200

[Bruce Steele]

It looks like we will sail past 410 this year. That will be something close to a 3.25 ppm averaged increase over the last four years. That average includes several years before we entered our now weakening El Nino.
When do we start the " when do we hit the 420 poll? "
It might get more coverage in Colorado, Oregon, Washington and Amsterdam, priorities being where they are.
It was 2013 when we started the " will we hit 400 this year poll " so let me take a guess about 2019 being the year we cross into the 420 range.
Is there anybody out there? I think I will put on some old Pink Floyd.

[crandles]

When do we start the " when do we hit the 420 poll? "

Be bold, start a new thread for it.

I'll go for as late as April 2021.

Is it first to post the right month wins and only one guess per person?

[DrTskoul]

When do we start the " when do we hit the 420 poll? "

Be bold, start a new thread for it.

I'll go for as late as April 2021.

Is it first to post the right month wins and only one guess per person?

~50% there...

April 10:     409.34 ppm
April 09:     Unavailable
April 08:     Unavailable
April 07:     407.74 ppm
April 06:     Unavailable
Last Updated: April 11, 2016

[Barthol]

Scripps has published their daily averages too

April  8 -  409.39 ppm
April  9 -  409.44 ppm   !!!!!
April 10 - 409.29 ppm

[Barthol]

Looking at the seasonal cycle as pictured on the Scripps site, and what values can be expected, I think these values higher than 409 ppm are outliers. Values between 406 and 407 ppm are more likely to be expected.

[wili]

rscribbler on recent CO2 reading and context: https://robertscribbler.com/2016/04/11/hothouse-gas-spikes-to-extreme-409-3-parts-per-million-on-april-10-record-rate-of-atmospheric-co2-increase-likely-for-2016/#comment-74587

Hothouse Gas Spikes to Extreme 409.3 Parts Per Million on April 10 — Record Rate of Atmospheric CO2 Increase Likely for 2016

Simply put, a rapid atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gasses is swiftly pushing the Earth well outside of any climate context that human beings are used to. The influence of an extreme El Nino on the world ocean system’s ability to take down a massive human carbon emission together with signs of what appears to be a significantly smaller but growing emission from global carbon stores looks to be setting the world up for another record jump in atmospheric CO2 levels during 2016.

Already, as we near the annual peak during late April through early May, major CO2 spikes are starting to show up. On Sunday, April 10 the Mauna Loa Observatory recorded a daily CO2 reading in the extraordinary range of 409.3 parts per million. These readings follow March monthly averages near 405 parts per million and precede an annual monthly peak in May that’s likely to hit above 407 parts per million and may strike as high as 409 parts per million. These are levels about 135 to 235 parts per million above the average interglacial to ice age range for CO2 levels during the relatively stable climate period of the last 2 million years.

In other words — atmospheric CO2 levels continue to climb into unprecedented ranges. Levels that are increasingly out-of-context scary. For we haven’t seen readings of this heat trapping gas hit so high in any time during at least the past 15 million years.

Sorry to get dramatic, but shouldn't we all be starting to get a bit...dramatic??

[Bruce Steele]

Wili, I think alarm is warranted. The drivers of this years spiking CO2 might be reduced to a shortlist.
1. A slowdown in North Atlantic deep water formation. And
    A continued slowdown of Antarctic bottom water formation both reduce the strength of atmosphere 
    to deep ocean transfer of CO2
2. El Nino heats ocean surface water. Cold water absorbs CO2 more efficiently.
3. Long term surface ocean heating.                            "
4. El Nino reduces upwelling of deep water in the eastern equatorial Pacific which is a negative forcing
    but it also reduces nutrients and therefore reduces surface bioproductivity in the equatorial Pacific.
    These two effects of El Nino counter each other to some degree.
5. El Nino driven fires in drought areas of Indonesia
6. Siberian, Alaskan and Canadian fires driven by Arctic amplification.

EIA says there is some slowdown in anthropogenic CO2 emissions that I personally distrust and part of the reason is if we are dealing with faulty accounting it is at least something we can?fix.( the accounting and anthropogenic CO2 contributions )
If we have entered a long term flip in the PDO a warm water PDO can be expected to send us an increased rate of El Nino events over the next 15-35 years and some repeat of the CO2 drivers related to El Nino will result in a trend line of increasing CO2 extending over the length of the current warm water PDO.
 
 

[wili]

Thanks, Bruce. I had forgotten about Indonesia. And I share your doubts about reductions in human emissions.

Do you (or anyone) know of a good source that breaks down atmospheric carbon into isotopes? Is there a strong signal from that indicator that carbon feedbacks are increasing significantly?

[Barthol]

(NOAA) April 11   - 408.97 PPM

Slightly lower, but still  an exceptional high value

[Bruce Steele]

Wili, This paper documents a C13 shift in the shells of Blue Mussels collected at Tatoosh Island off the coast of Washington state. The paper speculates on some potential drivers, shift in food preferences and a couple other drivers but compared to Much older mussels shells collected from Indian kitchen middens the shift in C13 stands out. You might want to look through the references to find a larger reading list.
 I would think studying shell middens and C13 at multiple sites around the world might better separate local drivers from atmospheric trends.

 http://www.seadocsociety.org/files/pdfs/Pfister-et-al.-2011-isotopes-show-rapid-oc-change.pdf

[Timothy Astin]

A well-written intoduction (over several web pages) to carbon isotopes in atmospheric carbon is at
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/outreach/isotopes/

Data on isotpes in atmospheric carbon is available here (example of Mauna Loa CO2)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts

The takeaway is that the progressive lowering of the carbon-13/carbon-12 ratio shows that a lot of carbon is coming from a combination of fossil fuels and the terrestial biosphere (not exactly news).

The rate of isotopic shift over more than a decade seems little changed, with some short-term fluctuations. For 2015/2016 the rate of shift is little changed. 

So, for example, if you think fossil fuel use is dropping off, then release from the terrestial biosphere would be increasing to keep the overall isotopic change roughly constant.


 

[wili]

Thanks Bruce and Timothy.

"if you think fossil fuel use is dropping off, then release from the terrestial biosphere would be increasing to keep the overall isotopic change roughly constant."

I feel like I must be missing something here.

If contributions from ff were going down and contributions from the biosphere going up, would that be exactly the situation where we would expect to see a significant shift in the isotope ratio?

[Pmt111500]

I feel like I must be missing something here.

If contributions from ff were going down and contributions from the biosphere going up, would that be exactly the situation where we would expect to see a significant shift in the isotope ratio?

Yea, likely the youngest sediments would decompose first givimg a rise of 14C. The same would happen if there'd be a massive loss of forests. Guessing they're talking of 12C/13C-ratio.

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot shows a 408.49ppm CO2 for April 12 2016 for Mauna Loa:

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot shows a 408.7ppm CO2 for April 13 2016 for Mauna Loa:

[AbruptSLR]

The attached one year Keeling Curve shows a weekly CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa above 408ppm and a daily value of 408.90ppm for April 13 2016

[AbruptSLR]

The linked SciAm article discusses probable causes for the record year on year jump in Mauna Loa daily CO₂ concentrations on April 9, 2016:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/humans-and-el-nino-team-up-to-create-a-record-jump-in-co2-pollution/

Extract: "Remember 2016—it is the infamous year that has already recorded the largest annual change on record in the makeup of the air you breathe. Fueled by people's pyromania and the El Niño global weather phenomenon, carbon dioxide concentrations reached 409.44 parts per million on April 9 at an air-sampling station atop Hawaii’s Mauna Loa, a rise of more than five ppm since the same date last year."

[crandles]

Week beginning on April 10, 2016:     408.69 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:     404.10 ppm

4.59 increase week on week

Edit: I think that is second only to a 1998 increase of 4.67

[AbruptSLR]

Week beginning on April 10, 2016:     408.69 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:     404.10 ppm

4.59 increase week on week

Edit: I think that is second only to a 1998 increase of 4.67

I take it that this indicates that we continue on a pathway on the high end of a BAU emissions scenario, as indicated by fact that we are above the blue curve in the attached Mauna Loa One-Year CO2 concentrations thru April 17 2016.