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Author Topic: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"  (Read 220483 times)

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #50 on: May 12, 2013, 12:29:37 PM »
I wasn't impressed by his method of selection or the questions he chose, and uncharitably suspect there's a bit of confirmation bias going on with him.

Seemed OK to me. I see no grounds for confirmation bias.

Lucas Durand

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #51 on: May 12, 2013, 03:03:02 PM »
To any who may be interested in the subject of communicating climate change risks:

A new blog has been recently launched with a specific focus on exploring this subject.
http://thefrogthatjumpedout.blogspot.it/

TerryM

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #52 on: May 13, 2013, 06:48:06 PM »
Second, we're building a history of "weather whiplash".  One drought, one flood, one weirdly strong or located storm can be dismissed as weather.  Build a year-after-year record of unusual events and people have an easier time understanding that something important has happened.

The true deniers are getting whittled down to a smaller and smaller percentage of the population.  They'll soon be at the level of tinfoil hatters than think the Moon landings were faked.
I think most "believers" (as opposed to deniers) either have very poor memories, can't read, or both.


Since "believers" by your definition includes just about every educated person that has studied the matter, assuming they all have poor memories, can't read, or both, seems more likely to be based on projection rather than observation.


Terry

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #53 on: May 15, 2013, 12:50:41 AM »
I think that we need to differentiate between "Belief" and "Awareness".

On one hand we have many people who believe in AGW/CC yet they are not aware of the imminence or severity of the problem.

On the other hand we have many people who are aware that something is happening to the climate, yet they do not believe that these patterns could be caused by AGW/CC.

These are two completely different audiences that need to be communicated to completely differently.
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Laurent

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #54 on: May 30, 2013, 02:33:20 PM »
http://noam-chomsky.tumblr.com/post/13867896307/noam-chomsky-10-strategies-of-manipulation-by-the
I did not hear speaking of Chomsky on this blog yet, but what he say's may apply to global denying in action (also known as GDA(by myself)) . like what is being massively told to the public of the slow down in the trend of warming.

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #55 on: June 15, 2013, 09:38:53 PM »

I ran cross this blog post on a blog (declineoftheempire) run by an old Peak Oiler named Dave Cohen.  I got a big kick out of it (being a dedicated pessimist and accused of such all the time) so I thought I would post it here and see if it generated any discussion.


http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2011/10/the-optimists-brain.html


Jim D just posted an interesting piece, http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,379.0.html, about how the human brain seems to be wired to reject negative information.  I think is important to combine the understanding of human cognitive abilities along with psychology and the  influences of a biased media when it comes to the lack off accepting the truths regarding AGW/CC.
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

Lynn Shwadchuck

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #56 on: June 20, 2013, 04:12:35 PM »
For an authoritative history of climate change denial I'm reading Naomi Oreskes Merchants of doubt.

TalkingStickTV - Prof. Naomi Oreskes - Merchants of Doubt


My feeling is that there's an epidemic of chronic anxiety and compulsive behavior (obesity is one result). These are the deniers, who unconsciously feel the truth but consciously whistle in the dark.

Of those of us who are sure we're circling the drain, many are paralyzed with despondency and/or seek the company of fellow pessimists (say, here). In working on local resilience I like to feel I'm not failing to act, but really, shouldn't I be getting involved in politics? But I don't, because I lack sufficient hope. 
I'm putting this site as my signature. I built it five years ago to make it easy for people to eat less meat. This is a major way individuals can make a difference.
www.10in10diet.com

Laurent

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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #58 on: July 02, 2013, 05:28:01 PM »
Climate Change Denial Books and Conservative Think Tanks
Exploring the Connection
 
The general lack of peer review allows authors or editors of denial books to make inaccurate assertions that misrepresent the current state of climate science. Like the vast range of other non-peer-reviewed material produced by the denial community, book authors can make whatever claims they wish, no matter how scientifically unfounded.11 In fact, the lack of peer review in the “denialosphere” (Pooley, 2010) means that denial claims are continually recycled, no matter how many times they are refuted by empirical test or shown to be logically untenable (Powell, 2011; Washington& Cook, 2011). Weart (2011, p. 48) terms them “zombie arguments” because they repeatedly rise from the grave.
Whereas scientific knowledge slowly but surely accumulates through testing, and then rejecting, modifying, and/or verifying hypotheses and theories,12 the denial literature is cumulative in the literal sense. Regardless of how thoroughly discredited in the scientific literature, denialist claims (the recent warming trend reflects a natural cycle, is the result of solar activity, won’t produce harmful impacts, etc.) are retained and reused whenever convenient. Non-peer-reviewed books espousing climate change denial offer an ideal means of presenting these claims, accounting for the growing popularity of such books. Strikingly, many of these books not only provide fallacious critiques of climate science but also present an alternate reality in which global warming is a hoax created by a conspiracy of supposedly greedy scientists, liberal politicians, and environmentalists (McKewon, 2012).
The general lack of peer review for the denial books is a common feature of the vast body of literature produced by the climate change denial community, ranging from blogs to newspaper op-eds to policy briefs from CTTs. Not being subject to peer review allows authors or editors of denial books to make scientifically inaccurate and discredited claims that are often amplified in conservative media and the blogosphere, potentially reaching significant segments of the general public. Their false claims are also used by conservative politicians, who sometimes invite the authors to testify at congressional hearings (McCright & Dunlap, 2003) and thereby provide them a direct voice in the policy-making arena. Although mainstream scientists occasionally take the time to debunk some of the more visible denial volumes, the proliferation of such books makes it impossible for busy scientists to critically review most of them. Thus, denial books are likely to continue to multiply, and many will receive considerable attention from sympathetic and scientifically unsophisticated audiences (McKewon, 2012). They are clearly a vital weapon in the conservative movement’s war on climate science, and one of the key means by which it diffuses climate change denial throughout American society and into other nations


http://abs.sagepub.com/content/57/6/699.full.pdf+html

The quoted part is towards the end of the paper.

JimD

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #59 on: July 07, 2013, 12:45:49 AM »
I have made comments in a number of posts on why almost all proposed behaviors/solutions to mitigate or adapt to AGW are dead on arrival because they fail to take into account the basics of fundamental human nature.  A solution, any solution, is doomed to failure, no matter how apparently beneficial it may be, if that solution requires that our species act in ways that are contrary to our basic nature.  We are not rational beings and will not behave as such.  No species can do this and we cannot either.  So solutions or mitigating strategies proposed must first pass that smell test.  Can and will humans act that way?  If not, then throw that idea in the bustbin and find another idea.

In light of the above I was drifting through various blogs today and found an old post by Dave Cohen on his blog "Decline of the Empire" that puts what I am trying to say in perhaps a more rigorous framework.  Enjoy and let me know what you think.

The Limits of Free Will in Human Action by Dave Cohen

http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2013/01/the-limits-of-free-will-in-human-action.html
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

wili

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #60 on: July 07, 2013, 02:26:27 AM »
"contrary to our basic nature"

Doesn't this assume that you know exactly what our "basic nature" is?

Isn't this one of the most contested issues in human-related fields of academia?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

ccgwebmaster

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #61 on: July 07, 2013, 02:33:10 AM »
http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2013/01/the-limits-of-free-will-in-human-action.html


I gave it a quick scan - I think my objection is that the argument appears to be that one can justify all sorts of behaviour by saying there isn't free will when it comes to that behaviour. I don't think I agree with that. I think we do have the capacity to make those choices (as evinced by the occasional historical exception to the norm in various individuals or even societies) but as a general rule evolutionary pressures and the setup of society are predicated upon timeframes too short and competitive (with other groups) to make the right choice (viewed through either a moral or long term lens).

As I see it, the choices an individual or society tend to make are rational in the context in which they are made. In other words if I go down a beans and bullets and whatever it takes route to survival as a result of a collapse that could have been avoided - that is a valid response within the framework in which it occurred. Likewise I may prefer to select the view that the general bulk of society exercised their free will in choosing not to avert such a situation (due to inappropriate focus on short term and competitive world views) and therefore I need not be morally concerned with their well being (they chose the outcome just as much as I did).

In this sense the response of individual and societies is generally established by the herd and it is the will of the majority (even if only through passive compliance with the system as implemented by the socioeconomic elites of the day) that restricts the options available to me.

In that sense I am logically bound to select a strategy that appears to offer the greatest chances of personal success because although the capacity for free will and other choices does in principle exist - evolution tends to reward selfish thinking. That said - the exceptions to the rule show that there must be some basis or reward for selfless thinking, just apparently less. This is in the same sense that any genetic basis for rape as a route to reproduction is preserved, while not being the normal or majority expression of genetics (in our species at least).

If one reduces the universe to the most basic elements possible I am unclear how one can have a universe that is not intrinsically pre-determined anyway (as one must base a universe upon rules - or do we think there is a truly random element at the quantum level? My impression is that all we can say at the quantum level is that we don't know something, not that the universe doesn't know it). That would make free will an illusion in a more fundamental manner (this is a digression however, and irrelevant for practical purposes as we can't look outside the "box").

Anyway the problem to me is not the absence of free will, but rather the absence of the framework within which to apply it with a longer term and more morally productive outlook. In my opinion this is a result of our species having advanced technologically far beyond our evolutionary ability to exercise wisdom and good judgement. In this respect we must evolve or we will die or regress.

Accordingly my question would be - if the right genetics (currently in the minority) survived a collapse and prospered above the mainstream genetics in this matter - is there not at least a theoretical possibility of the species making this evolutionary move? Much depends of course on what the best fit response is to the situation and the extent to which a long term and morally sound world view can be the optimum (versus extreme violence and the usual physical arms race).

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #62 on: July 07, 2013, 11:58:37 AM »
I second that, a discussion about free will is a dead end. Although I support finding explanations or even solutions based on brain science, I would propose 'motivation' as an aspect explaining more . What drives you to do that extra step beyond basic needs every day? And if I look at the current resource hungry economy being incompatible with but operating on this finite planet I wonder what might create a motivation scheme beyond economic needs, i.e. better salary, steeper carrier and fancier gadgets?

Some headlines spend hope: Americans, especially young, continue to drive less, report says

SATire

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #63 on: July 07, 2013, 02:20:17 PM »
I second that, a discussion about free will is a dead end. Although I support finding explanations or even solutions based on brain science, I would propose 'motivation' as an aspect explaining more . What drives you to do that extra step beyond basic needs every day? And if I look at the current resource hungry economy being incompatible with but operating on this finite planet I wonder what might create a motivation scheme beyond economic needs, i.e. better salary, steeper carrier and fancier gadgets?
I agree to that - without the assumption of an existing free will all religions, ethics, laws and social live would have no basis, thus we need the concept of free will anyway.

The question of motivation for work/effort needs to be adressed. I think man try hard to impress the girls - that is it. The main motivation is sex - in the end we are just the taxi-cab of the germ cells.
Since male motivation for sex is in principle near-sighted some shift of emphasis towards femal motivation could rescue us in the longer term. So include some care-taking, education and conservaton to sex - sustainable reproduction is done not after fertilization but after children have grown up with good education and in an environment worth enough for the children to think of reproduction, too. Maybe even include the grandchildren into that motivation. Since that is allready femal nature of mankind we still have a chance to survive just by decrease the impact of male (mis-)behavior.

JimD

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #64 on: July 07, 2013, 05:19:00 PM »
Wili,

"contrary to our basic nature"

Doesn't this assume that you know exactly what our "basic nature" is?

Isn't this one of the most contested issues in human-related fields of academia?

Well I have to admit that I put most academic work by behavioral scientists right up there with that of economists so I don't put a huge stock in what either of them say.  Neither is science and their results are not repeatable.  But one thing we do have to look at when discussing human nature/behavior is lots of empirical evidence.  We have thousands of years of human history to look at.  How people perceive and react to threats.  What happens when someone or a very small group of people try to break out of these boundaries.

While one can say that there are individual people who break the mold and/or try and argue different behavior from a framework of rational thought, such 'behavior' is certainly not a common trait and is totally overwhelmed by what the 'mob' is going to do.  The basic nature of the species is not determined by any individual but by the group.  I think we all know this and it is a great source of frustration for some.  How often do you hear or read comments expressing total frustration with standard human behavior which fits exactly into OLN's hierarchy listed in the first post in this thread.  I just try and accept it and find a way to act within its boundaries. 

I try and force myself to take into account how Joe Sixpack is going to think and react.  I learned this the hard way as I grew up deep in a very blue collar place.  I learned overtime that it does not matter what makes 'sense' or is 'fair' or 'right', but that what matters is what 'is'.  You may think that what everyone wants to do, or thinks, or cares about will makes things worse, or is not 'fair' or is not good for everyone or is just plain wrong, but you better be prepared to face the consequences if you decide to say anything about what they are doing or act to stop them.  I did not have a happy childhood.

I also learned that it is not just Joe who acts this way.  It is almost everyone.  Some, most, people just follow their nature and do what everyone else does.  A few others are the people who are motivated to grab the reins of power and wealth and who lead the rabble.  But they are also part of the pack and fit into a standard place in it.  They are not rational actors either but more like the Alpha wolf who runs the show but is wedded firmly into the basic nature of the species (a good example is Dick Cheney whom my older sister said was just like he is now when she went to high school with him).
I am not saying that action is impossible, just that it is bounded.  Since history has firmly demonstrated those bounds you just operate within them is all.  Don't propose going against the tide so to speak.  Don't ask of the group what it is not capable of doing.  Manipulate them by getting them to do something that they ARE capable of doing and which moves everyone towards your goal.  Appeals to action based upon rational thought structures (science based arguments) do not tend to get traction or work within those bounds.   You have to attack your opponents on the basis that what they are doing is an immediate threat to the listeners ability to feed, clothe and shelter himself and his family.  A threat to his security and ability to have what he and his family need to survive.  You have to use harsh language that appeals directly to the most basic instincts and concerns.  You have to scare people into actions which move the 'mob' towards behaviors that accomplish your goals.  Have you any doubt that your opponents are already doing exactly that type of thing in opposition to you?  You have to take over, you have to find your Alpha's and run the show.  Or not. 
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #65 on: July 12, 2013, 01:19:49 PM »
James Inhofe: Climate 'Alarmists,' Obama Bureaucrats Plot To Control Americans

WASHINGTON -- Denying climate change isn't new for Oklahoma Republican Sen. James Inhofe. But in a Senate floor speech Wednesday night, Inhofe added a conspiratorial wrinkle -- proposed new carbon dioxide regulations are meant not to curb greenhouse gases, but to curb people's freedom.

Inhofe was reacting to President Barack Obama's recent speech detailing his administration's intention to restrict emissions from coal-powered power plants. Inhofe pointed the language that officials were using as evidence they're trying to hide their true intentions, noting that environmental advocates and the administration are using the phrase "carbon pollution" rather than manmade global warming, which Inhofe said he doesn't believe in.

"Their goal is not to protect the American people, it is to control them," Inhofe said. "They want top-down control, and carbon dioxide regulations will give this to them."

Inhofe argued that the administration is furthering its ends by giving talking points to "alarmists" who, he explained, are "people who believe the world is coming to an end, and it's all man's fault."


Full article @ Huffington Post:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/11/james-inhofe-climate_n_3582585.html

I'm so appalled that this man is a US Senator that I don't know what else to say.  Every time I hear him speak about AGW/CC, my stomach turns.  This man is the most powerful "Denialist" in the US Government.  In my estimation James Inhofe is committing a "Grievous Crime Against Humanity"!!
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ritter

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #66 on: July 12, 2013, 05:44:41 PM »
In my estimation James Inhofe is committing a "Grievous Crime Against Humanity"!!

Preach on, brother.

If you want to consider loss of freedoms, consider nothing to eat and nowhere to live because this boogeyman AGW has destroyed our home (certainly, we had nothing to do with it). What short-sighted stupid creatures we are.

Anne

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #67 on: July 14, 2013, 03:27:45 PM »
Has anyone here read this paper, which suggests that Chinese students are more likely to believe in AGW than US students?
Abstract
Despite the overwhelming scientific consensus, climate change is a divisive national and international policy issue. There is still much public debate and uncertainty regarding the reality of climate change and the degree to which human activities are responsible. In terms of climate change issues, the US and China are of particular interest because they are disproportionately responsible for the world's greenhouse gas emissions. Using the data from a survey of US and Chinese college students, this paper compares climate change public opinion among young adults in these two countries. We found that US students much less likely to believe anthropogenic climate change is happening compared to Chinese students. US students were also less convinced of the consensus among climate scientists regarding human-induced climate change. In addition, US students rated the economy higher than the environment as a government priority, whereas Chinese students rated the economy and environment as equally important. In terms of familiarity with the current policy debate, Chinese students were more familiar with both national and international climate change policies. Although Chinese students favor joining an international agreement to address climate change more than US students, on average, there was a relatively strong support among students in both countries for joining such an agreement. However, within the US, there are significant differences in climate change public opinion between those with conservative and liberal political ideologies for almost every variable studied. These results are interesting and could have meaningful implications for both national and international climate change policies in the future.

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #68 on: July 14, 2013, 03:45:13 PM »
Has anyone here read this paper, which suggests that Chinese students are more likely to believe in AGW than US students?
Abstract
Despite the overwhelming scientific consensus, climate change is a divisive national and international policy issue. There is still much public debate and uncertainty regarding the reality of climate change and the degree to which human activities are responsible. In terms of climate change issues, the US and China are of particular interest because they are disproportionately responsible for the world's greenhouse gas emissions. Using the data from a survey of US and Chinese college students, this paper compares climate change public opinion among young adults in these two countries. We found that US students much less likely to believe anthropogenic climate change is happening compared to Chinese students. US students were also less convinced of the consensus among climate scientists regarding human-induced climate change. In addition, US students rated the economy higher than the environment as a government priority, whereas Chinese students rated the economy and environment as equally important. In terms of familiarity with the current policy debate, Chinese students were more familiar with both national and international climate change policies. Although Chinese students favor joining an international agreement to address climate change more than US students, on average, there was a relatively strong support among students in both countries for joining such an agreement. However, within the US, there are significant differences in climate change public opinion between those with conservative and liberal political ideologies for almost every variable studied. These results are interesting and could have meaningful implications for both national and international climate change policies in the future.



Anne,

This is not surprising news to me.  Although the abstract you linked to talks about the opinions of college students, we know that the US is falling far behind other countries at the high school level, particularly in math and science.  Then you also factor in the political climate where the extreme conservative movement continues to believe that AGW/CC is a "Communist/Socialist Conspiracy".  If you showed the results of that survey to the average right-winger, they would claim that the Chinese students believe that because they are being brainwashed by their communist government.  As opposed to the fact that the Chinese students are better educated.

WAKE UP AMERICA!!
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Superman1

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #69 on: July 14, 2013, 06:58:01 PM »
Bob Wallace,

"Let the Arctic Ocean go ice-free in about ~2016 and I suspect deniers will be only a tiny, unimportant niche."  That's important only if you believe the 'deniers' are a central roadblock.  They certainly are 'a' problem, but I don't believe they are 'the' problem. 

If we do what is necessary to avoid the climate cliff, such as eliminating all non-essential uses of fossil fuel starting today as a first step in achieving the required ~20% global CO2 emissions reductions per annum stated by experts for a 2 C ceiling, then we will have to face both a deep global depression and severe constraints on the 'good life' enabled by the unlimited availability of cheap fossil fuel.  Kevin Anderson uses the terminology 'prolonged austerity' and Tim Garrett the more provocative 'global economic collapse', but in my view, they, and others, are saying the same thing.  I don't see the investors or the workers or the retirees or the industrialists who want to face those consequences.  So, if the 'deniers' vanished tomorrow, we would still be faced with our reluctance to experience the harsh economic and personal sacrifices that would result.

Anne

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #70 on: July 23, 2013, 04:17:00 PM »
A readable article by Robert Manne in today's Guardian analyses the reasons for denialism and lack of political will.

You can play denialism bingo below the line, but there are some good people on there fighting back. One of them put up a link to Futerra's "Sell the Sizzle, not the Sausage" (pdf) which has PR advice on how to persuade people to adopt green policies. In brief, don't frighten them, don't blind them with science, don't patronise them, but know your audience and show them a vision.
Imagine just for a moment you’re standing on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington DC. It’s a hot August day, fuelled by the largest crowd ever gathered in that capital city. Every one of those thousands of faces are watching and waiting for you to speak. What will you say? Angry words would be fair. You’ve been fighting a long fight, sometimes a long defeat. Your home has been bombed and your family persecuted. Every phone call is tapped and jail is a familiar step away. The anger and frustration of your supporters is tangible. Blood has spilled… including your own. Even the righteous now suspect that civil war is the only answer. Terror may be the only way out. What will you say?

“I have a dream today”

That’s how it works. When you’re faced with hell – you sell heaven.
It is well worth reading through (even if the breezy ad-man tone grates at times).

Clare

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #71 on: August 06, 2013, 11:09:41 AM »
Just joining this here:
I've just read a book called 'Madlands' by Anna Rose, about the making of this doco that was shown in Oz last year, one some of you might be interested in: 
Can I Change Your Mind About Climate? now on Youtube
I Can Change Your Mind on Climate

"Anna Rose, environmental activist and co-founder of the Australian Youth Climate Coalition, goes on a journey around the world with former Liberal Party powerbroker Nick Minchin in tow. She's on a mission: to see if she can change the mind of one sceptic, and with him, the views of a nation confused about the science behind the biggest threat humanity has ever faced.

Anna's journey with Nick forces them both to confront closely held assumptions, think deeply about complex science, and ultimately ask what our responsibilities are as humans alive in uncertain times acting on substantial but incomplete scientific knowledge. Drawing upon in-depth interviews with experts around the world, as well as field visits to a farm in north-western New South Wales, a remote Hawaiian volcano 13,000 feet above the middle of the Pacific Ocean, and the crystal waters of the Great Barrier Reef, Madlands traces the rise of climate scepticism and the struggles of scientists and activists to communicate the facts to an increasingly confused public.

Through the eyes of one young Australian, we're invited to step back and look at the bigger picture of what we know about climate change, and what we don't. Madlands is part travel story, part scientific exploration, part tale of self-discovery, and part call to arms. It is written to inform, entertain and ultimately to change the debate on climate change in Australia."

The finished doco unfortuneately edited out interviews with Naomi Oreskes & Rear Admiral Titley but they are available online, Naomi's here.
http://www.abc.net.au/environment/articles/2012/04/26/3489290.htm
I felt this doco & the book gave a real good insight into how & why how a commited skeptic thinks. But I think she may have wasted her time?

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #72 on: August 06, 2013, 10:43:13 PM »
Clare,

Thanks for that link, I'm looking forward to viewing it in it's entirety.  The fact that was produced by an Australian will be very helpful to me.  I've just been asked by another forum member from Australia to help him develop presentation about the Declining Arctic Sea Ice much like I did in helping TerryM with his presentation to the Canadian Mensa Society.
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Clare

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #73 on: August 07, 2013, 01:02:27 AM »
Glad if it can be useful for you & our Fellow Forum Friend, OLN.
If nothing it may help you understand the viewpoints that can prevail in Australia. Not surprising really when their economy is soooo dependent on coal. Our FFF will understand this way better than I.
http://www.abc.net.au/tv/changeyourmind/
and here are the survey questions used in the survey & doco.
http://www.abc.net.au/tv/changeyourmind/survey/

I am sure you already have plenty of resources but you may care to check out these from John Cook & co, they are Australian afterall.
;-)
http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php
The other thing, if I might so boldly suggest is, as well as having very clear uncluttered slides like their's are, is to include pics that set the scene so to speak. Pictures are worth a lot of words. Maybe you can pull some recent ones from the pole webcams or from the Healy bridge cam?

When I have ever given talks about going to Scott Base in Antarctica I always download the latest base webcam pic & weather data, seems to make it more real to people. We even had live webcam feeds in the gallery during my (pay back for getting taken there!) art exhibition.
Respecfully,
Clare

Anne

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #74 on: August 08, 2013, 07:36:06 AM »
A new study1 finds that consumption of Fox News is correlated with denial of AGW.
You don't say.

Article in today's Guardian here.

A new study published in the journal Public Understanding of Science (PDF available here) surveyed a nationally representative sample of over 1,000 Americans in 2008 and 2011 about their media consumption and beliefs about climate change.

The results suggest that conservative media consumption (specifically Fox News and Rush Limbaugh) decreases viewer trust in scientists, which in turn decreases belief that global warming is happening. In contrast, consumption of non-conservative media (specifically ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, NPR, The New York Times, and The Washington Post) increases consumer trust in scientists, and in turn belief that global warming is happening.

The study also examined previous research on this issue and concluded that the conservative media creates distrust in scientists through five main methods:

1) Presenting contrarian scientists as "objective" experts while presenting mainstream scientists as self-interested or biased.

2) Denigrating scientific institutions and peer-reviewed journals.

3) Equating peer-reviewed research with a politically liberal opinion.

4) Accusing climate scientists of manipulating data to fund research projects.

5) Characterizing climate science as a religion.


However, a ray of light: "A growing number of American conservatives are demanding that the Republican Party stop denying the problem and begin participating in crafting the solution."

Worth looking at the whole article, which has more detail and links to relevant material. I'm off now to look at the study itself. 


1An attack on science? Media use, trust in scientists, and perceptions of global warming, Jay D. Hmielowski and others
Abstract
There is a growing divide in how conservatives and liberals in the USA understand the issue of global warming. Prior research suggests that the American public’s reliance on partisan media contributes to this gap. However, researchers have yet to identify intervening variables to explain the relationship between media use and public opinion about global warming. Several studies have shown that trust in scientists is an important heuristic many people use when reporting their opinions on science-related topics. Using within-subject panel data from a nationally representative sample of Americans, this study finds that trust in scientists mediates the effect of news media use on perceptions of global warming. Results demonstrate that conservative media use decreases trust in scientists which, in turn, decreases certainty that global warming is happening. By contrast, use of non-conservative media increases trust in scientists, which, in turn, increases certainty that global warming is happening.
(pdf available here)

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #75 on: August 10, 2013, 03:18:11 PM »
.................However, a ray of light: "A growing number of American conservatives are demanding that the Republican Party stop denying the problem and begin participating in crafting the solution."....................................

I say the same article and found it interesting, but my understanding is that it is the college age Republicans that are beginning to accept AGW/CC.  Unfortunately they do not have the clout or influence to change the current direction of the Republican Party.  And we can not wait decades until they are old enough to assume leadership positions.

Meanwhile, we're left with Inhofe, et all!!
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jbg

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #76 on: August 13, 2013, 01:56:13 PM »
.................However, a ray of light: "A growing number of American conservatives are demanding that the Republican Party stop denying the problem and begin participating in crafting the solution."....................................

I say the same article and found it interesting, but my understanding is that it is the college age Republicans that are beginning to accept AGW/CC.  Unfortunately they do not have the clout or influence to change the current direction of the Republican Party.  And we can not wait decades until they are old enough to assume leadership positions.

Meanwhile, we're left with Inhofe, et all!!
I am politically an extremely liberal Democrat yet I do not believe in AGW. As for whether we're warming or cooling it varies by point in the PDO phase, sunspots, volcanic activity and other variables.

It is the poor and middle class that will take it on the chin for ill-advised or panicky responses to a possible problem.  If we simply reduce our "footprint" here India and China will happily step up to the plate.

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #77 on: August 13, 2013, 02:15:18 PM »
I am politically an extremely liberal Democrat yet I do not believe in AGW. As for whether we're warming or cooling it varies by point in the PDO phase, sunspots, volcanic activity and other variables.

It is the poor and middle class that will take it on the chin for ill-advised or panicky responses to a possible problem.  If we simply reduce our "footprint" here India and China will happily step up to the plate.


jbg,

Welcome to the Forum.  While I'm glad that you are a liberal Democrat, however I have some suggestions for you regarding your understanding of Climate Change.  This forum is not meant to be a place to discuss whether climate change is occurring or whether it is caused by human activity.  AGW/CC is a proven fact and we consider I settled science.

The "Denialists" continue to float the sunspot, volcano, etc. crap all of the time.  I suggest you go here to learn about AGW/CC:

http://skepticalscience.com/
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

TerryM

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #78 on: August 13, 2013, 06:22:02 PM »
jbg
OLN's advice is good. Could I supplement it with a suggestion to look for internal inconsistencies at the sites where you are now getting your information from.
Denial sites claim to be purveyors of truth regarding AGW but often give equal credence to theories that contradict each other. A quick example that you mention is volcanoes. They claim on one hand that CO2 is not responsible for global warming and on the other that volcanoes emit such huge amounts of CO2 that this explains the warming. Look for this kind of logical inconsistency and after a period of time you will probably conclude that CO2 is the cause and volcanic emissions are not the source.
Try to avoid the mistake of posting until your research is well advanced. We all feel compelled to defend what we've written and this can lead to cherry picking facts that seemingly support a position we've staked out. While remaining mute for a month or two may take willpower it allows you to soak up a much broader swath of information.
Separate the politics and policies from the facts. Understand what the climate is doing. Then if you wish, assign blame. The last thing to consider is policies. Doing this in any other order isn't productive.
Terry

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #79 on: August 13, 2013, 06:33:43 PM »
jbg
OLN's advice is good. Could I supplement it with a suggestion to look for internal inconsistencies at the sites where you are now getting your information from.
Denial sites claim to be purveyors of truth regarding AGW but often give equal credence to theories that contradict each other. A quick example that you mention is volcanoes. They claim on one hand that CO2 is not responsible for global warming and on the other that volcanoes emit such huge amounts of CO2 that this explains the warming. Look for this kind of logical inconsistency and after a period of time you will probably conclude that CO2 is the cause and volcanic emissions are not the source.
Try to avoid the mistake of posting until your research is well advanced. We all feel compelled to defend what we've written and this can lead to cherry picking facts that seemingly support a position we've staked out. While remaining mute for a month or two may take willpower it allows you to soak up a much broader swath of information.
Separate the politics and policies from the facts. Understand what the climate is doing. Then if you wish, assign blame. The last thing to consider is policies. Doing this in any other order isn't productive.
Terry

Well said Terry!!
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

jbg

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #80 on: August 13, 2013, 06:36:33 PM »
I am politically an extremely liberal Democrat yet I do not believe in AGW. As for whether we're warming or cooling it varies by point in the PDO phase, sunspots, volcanic activity and other variables.

It is the poor and middle class that will take it on the chin for ill-advised or panicky responses to a possible problem.  If we simply reduce our "footprint" here India and China will happily step up to the plate.
The earth being flat was also at one point not subject to discussion.  Nor, in McCarthy's 1950's was the fact that some low-level dentist a threat to national security subject to discussion. Nor the status of Jews in Czarist Russia or Nazi Germany.

Does it help to bar constructive discussion?

jbg,

Welcome to the Forum.  While I'm glad that you are a liberal Democrat, however I have some suggestions for you regarding your understanding of Climate Change.  This forum is not meant to be a place to discuss whether climate change is occurring or whether it is caused by human activity.  AGW/CC is a proven fact and we consider I settled science.

The "Denialists" continue to float the sunspot, volcano, etc. crap all of the time.  I suggest you go here to learn about AGW/CC:

http://skepticalscience.com/

chopper

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #81 on: August 14, 2013, 11:45:46 PM »
coming to this forum and arguing that AGW is not real is like joining an email listserve at the NCI and arguing that 'smoking doesn't cause cancer'.

further wrapping it up in godwin-esque talk about the plight of the jews in nazi germany does not help your cause here.

I am politically an extremely liberal Democrat yet I do not believe in AGW. As for whether we're warming or cooling it varies by point in the PDO phase, sunspots, volcanic activity and other variables.

It is the poor and middle class that will take it on the chin for ill-advised or panicky responses to a possible problem.  If we simply reduce our "footprint" here India and China will happily step up to the plate.
The earth being flat was also at one point not subject to discussion.  Nor, in McCarthy's 1950's was the fact that some low-level dentist a threat to national security subject to discussion. Nor the status of Jews in Czarist Russia or Nazi Germany.

Does it help to bar constructive discussion?

jbg,

Welcome to the Forum.  While I'm glad that you are a liberal Democrat, however I have some suggestions for you regarding your understanding of Climate Change.  This forum is not meant to be a place to discuss whether climate change is occurring or whether it is caused by human activity.  AGW/CC is a proven fact and we consider I settled science.

The "Denialists" continue to float the sunspot, volcano, etc. crap all of the time.  I suggest you go here to learn about AGW/CC:

http://skepticalscience.com/


deep octopus

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #82 on: August 15, 2013, 12:04:46 AM »
Watching potholer54's anthology of climate change videos would also be a more productive use of time rather than "believing" or "not believing" in falsifiable (and long-tested) ideas like climate change. The overwhelming evidence that has accrued in the last century converges on AGW theory very strongly and I will leave it at that.






OldLeatherneck

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #83 on: August 15, 2013, 12:20:02 AM »
coming to this forum and arguing that AGW is not real is like joining an email listserve at the NCI and arguing that 'smoking doesn't cause cancer'.

further wrapping it up in godwin-esque talk about the plight of the jews in nazi germany does not help your cause here.


chopper,

Welcome to the Forum.  thanks for your supportive comments!!
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

chopper

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #84 on: August 15, 2013, 12:34:18 AM »
thanks. i lurked for a long time here. post a lot at rood's blog at wunderground, but under the name 'schwankmoe'. too many deniers there though, it's gotten to the point where i don't post so much anymore.

coming to this forum and arguing that AGW is not real is like joining an email listserve at the NCI and arguing that 'smoking doesn't cause cancer'.

further wrapping it up in godwin-esque talk about the plight of the jews in nazi germany does not help your cause here.


chopper,

Welcome to the Forum.  thanks for your supportive comments!!

jbg

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #85 on: August 15, 2013, 12:49:33 AM »
coming to this forum and arguing that AGW is not real is like joining an email listserve at the NCI and arguing that 'smoking doesn't cause cancer'.

further wrapping it up in godwin-esque talk about the plight of the jews in nazi germany does not help your cause here.
What are we supposed to "discuss" at a forum of this variety unless this is an amen society of universal agreement?

prokaryotes

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #86 on: August 15, 2013, 01:06:43 AM »
Why So Many Conservatives Deny The Climate Problem: They Hate The Solution http://climatestate.com/2013/08/14/why-so-many-conservatives-deny-the-climate-problem-they-hate-the-solution/

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #87 on: August 15, 2013, 01:09:20 AM »
coming to this forum and arguing that AGW is not real is like joining an email listserve at the NCI and arguing that 'smoking doesn't cause cancer'.

further wrapping it up in godwin-esque talk about the plight of the jews in nazi germany does not help your cause here.
What are we supposed to "discuss" at a forum of this variety unless this is an amen society of universal agreement?

If you care to read the many posts on this topic and others, you will find that we have heated, yet collegial, discussions about many issues.  What we do NOT waste our time on is discussing whether Climate Change is occurring (IT IS!!) or whether it is due to human activity (IT IS!!).

We welcome people here and we hope that we can  share our collective knowledge and diverse opinions with them.  However, this is NOT Climate Change 101.  We moved beyond that and we're trying to discuss the present problems and the path to the future.  You're welcome to stay here and  "Lurk 'n Learn", just don't pester us with "Denialist" nonsense.
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

chopper

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #88 on: August 15, 2013, 01:13:47 AM »
there are lots of details about the effects of AGW to discuss. just like there's lots for oncologists and cancer researchers to discuss about lung cancer.

i don't see why this is so hard to grasp.

i mean, you could continue to spout all sorts of denialist stuff if you want. all it would do is interrupt the actual conversations going on regarding the effects of a real, measurable physical phenomenon in real life.

or just follow my advice, make your way onto a listserve at the NCI, argue that smoking in no way causes cancer. when the people there roll their eyes at you, accuse them of being an 'echo chamber'.  either way it's a waste of time.

coming to this forum and arguing that AGW is not real is like joining an email listserve at the NCI and arguing that 'smoking doesn't cause cancer'.

further wrapping it up in godwin-esque talk about the plight of the jews in nazi germany does not help your cause here.
What are we supposed to "discuss" at a forum of this variety unless this is an amen society of universal agreement?

ccgwebmaster

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #89 on: August 15, 2013, 02:53:16 AM »
If you care to read the many posts on this topic and others, you will find that we have heated, yet collegial, discussions about many issues.  What we do NOT waste our time on is discussing whether Climate Change is occurring (IT IS!!) or whether it is due to human activity (IT IS!!).

Or to put it another way, we discuss within the parameters of uncertainty - which leaves lots of discussion space. Only idiots still argue the established science that climate change is happening and is due to human activity and natural feedbacks amplifying effects of said activity.

Glenn Tamblyn

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #90 on: August 15, 2013, 08:20:12 AM »
Linking together the Madlands reference to the doco, the image of Naomi Oreskes and "Why So Many Conservatives Deny The Climate Problem: They Hate The Solution ". One segment for the documentary that was filmed but never used was Anna taking Nick Minchin to meet Naomi Oreskes.

Naomi talked to him about 'Implicatory Denial'. Problem A implies a need for solution B. Since I hate, reject, am terrified of, have world view contrary to whatever, B, A can't be true.

Implicatory Denial is at the heart of denialism. And since people might reject the implications for a wide range of reasons, there can be all sorts of deniers. A passionate environmentalist, who cares deeply about all the other bad stuff we are doing to the environment may find the implications of AGW just too much to bear. 'We couldn't cause THAT MUCH damage, that is unthinkable' So AGW can't be true.

While there is certainly a strong component to denial among Conservatives of the 'Capitalism is the Greatest, it can do no wrong!' variety, it is the underlying psychology of how some people can reject the possibility of something because of its implications that is the stumbling block .

Many here on this forum are possibly scientifically trained in some fashion. More importantly we may be comfortable with looking at the world in terms of cause and effect, physics etc. That the world around us is something we 'apprehend' as being deeply a cause and effect thing. If cause and effect means that something is going to happen, how we feel about that fact has zero relevance to whether it will occur - cause and effect rules.

This is not how the human mind actually works! Most people don't think this way, or they reserve these types of thinking processes for specific activities in life. Generally most people see most things about the world around them as if they are an extension of their emotions. Something that feels wrong cant be true.

Look at much religious thinking. Remember Dubya talking about people who have a 'faith based reality', look at the continuing rise of 'motivationalist' thinking - positive attitude training, the idea of having a preferred way of looking at life as if this is a choice that changes things. Look at the widespread acceptance of astrology, luck thinking etc. In the world of broader humanity Astrology is mainstream, Astronomy is weird rubbish.

AGW Denialism isn't some strange aberration. It is actually grounded in human psychology. The surprising thing is that it isn't more common.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2013, 08:10:06 AM by Glenn Tamblyn »

jbg

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #91 on: August 16, 2013, 03:04:55 PM »
Why So Many Conservatives Deny The Climate Problem: They Hate The Solution http://climatestate.com/2013/08/14/why-so-many-conservatives-deny-the-climate-problem-they-hate-the-solution/
Does the so-called liberal "solution" extend to China and India?

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #92 on: August 16, 2013, 06:04:53 PM »
I thought this might be relevant here

Decision making under uncertainty

JimD

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #93 on: August 16, 2013, 06:47:01 PM »
BFTV

Thanks!  That was excellent.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #94 on: August 16, 2013, 07:40:49 PM »
jbg, you're our only skeptic/contrarian/denier/etc here (thanks for not trolling!), and I'm really curious to know what you think of that short Andrew Dessler video. Does what he says, make sense to you?
Il faut cultiver notre jardin

Chuck Yokota

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #95 on: August 16, 2013, 09:01:36 PM »
Why So Many Conservatives Deny The Climate Problem: They Hate The Solution http://climatestate.com/2013/08/14/why-so-many-conservatives-deny-the-climate-problem-they-hate-the-solution/
Does the so-called liberal "solution" extend to China and India?


jbg,
The discussion was not on the merits (or lack thereof) of a proposed solution, but the state of mind that refuses to acknowledge the problem because the solution is unacceptable.  By zeroing in on faults of the solution, are you not demonstrating that state of mind?

deep octopus

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #96 on: August 16, 2013, 09:13:34 PM »
It's also a fallacy of argument from adverse consequences. Whether or not one agrees with the solution to climate change says nothing of the theory's veracity. One has to argue the preponderance of evidence supporting AGW, not the outcomes that follow.

domen_

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #97 on: August 16, 2013, 09:50:02 PM »
There are several different kinds of denialists. Some people are simply confused because of confusion propaganda and mistakenly think science is not settled, some deny it because they feel it threatens their ideological beliefs (free market),..

George Marshall (psychologist) has a very nice talk titled "Ingenious ways we avoid believing in climate change".
The Ingenious Ways We Avoid Believing in Climate Change. Part One


The Ingenious Ways We Avoid Believing in Climate Change. Part Two


Ned W

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #98 on: August 16, 2013, 10:07:39 PM »
This problem may be exacerbated when we talk about "the solution" ... which seems to imply that once someone accepts that climate change is real, there's only one possible way to respond. 

It is probably helpful to keep in mind that the "is it real" questions and the "what will the effects be" questions are questions about science, where at least in principle there is a right answer (even if we don't yet know all the answers).  But the "how should we respond" question is ultimately about values, not science, and there's not necessarily any one right answer.

So for example if someone says "I think the second law of thermodynamics means that CO2 in the atmosphere cannot warm the earth" they are simply wrong.  Plain, flat-out wrong.

Or if someone says "I think that the rise in atmospheric CO2 is coming from the oceans, not from fossil fuels" they're objectively wrong.

But the question of what to do about climate change is different.  People can legitimately disagree about how to balance mitigation vs adaptation, or what targets are reasonable for emissions reductions, or whatever.  Those questions should definitely be informed by science, but ultimately they're about values which are fundamentally subjective.

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« Reply #99 on: August 17, 2013, 02:53:54 AM »
This problem may be exacerbated when we talk about "the solution" ... which seems to imply that once someone accepts that climate change is real, there's only one possible way to respond. 


NedW,

This is exactly why I started this topic to identify the reasons why people "Deny" or "Fail to Act".  The fear of the solutions is a very valid reason for much of the political reticence to acknowledge AGW/CC.

I personally don't like the required solutions yet I see no alternatives being offered.  Sadly, the longer we wait to address the problems the more draconian the potential  solutions will be.
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama