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JackTaylor

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #50 on: February 17, 2014, 04:18:30 PM »
Local water agencies quibble about what's fair for their water users. A local rich verses less rich conundrum. 

http://www.independent.com/news/2014/jan/30/let-sleeping-dogs-snore/?print


Bruce,
You don't own a stable of polo ponies?

Will I hear about  armed militia on the banks of the Santa Inez River such as
http://www.usbr.gov/lc/phoenix/AZ100/1950/whiskey_drinking_water_fighting.html


JimD

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #51 on: February 17, 2014, 08:32:01 PM »
It is widely known today that the allocations of water from the Colorado River that were agreed to in the Colorado River Compact in 1922 were based upon data from very wet years.  Not average.  And now, of course, average is ... changing?

If the droughts in CA, AZ and the rest of the southwest persist for another two years or so we are going to have to readdress that 1922 compact as we will have no choice because there will not be enough water to fill allocations and cities will run out of water.  That will be an interesting fight to watch.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Bruce Steele

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #52 on: February 18, 2014, 01:57:57 AM »
Jack Taylor, I don't know much about the Colorado but the Santa Ynez is similar to the Salinas River.
A lot of the same issues ,steelhead, endangered songbirds, off road vehicles , agriculture runoff and pesticides, etc. If you look at this link for the Salinas you will see a picture with heavy off road vehicle damaged river bottom. I am the guy who goes down and tries to preserve part of the river from experiencing similar problems. It is about the most dangerous it gets around here. The ORV folks carry, I don't.

 http://conservationconsulting.net/UpsideDownRiver.html

OldLeatherneck

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #53 on: February 18, 2014, 01:58:14 AM »
It is widely known today that the allocations of water from the Colorado River that were agreed to in the Colorado River Compact in 1922 were based upon data from very wet years.  Not average.  And now, of course, average is ... changing?

If the droughts in CA, AZ and the rest of the southwest persist for another two years or so we are going to have to readdress that 1922 compact as we will have no choice because there will not be enough water to fill allocations and cities will run out of water.  That will be an interesting fight to watch.


I did some checking of the respective population growth of Arizona and California since the 1920s at http://www.demographia.com/db-state1900.htm.  At this site the last year posted was 2003, however for my purposes it is enough to show the dramatic growth of both states:

           POPULATION      
YEAR      ARIZONA   CALIFORNIA
1920        334,162      3,426,861
2003     5,580,811    35,484,453

In addition to the growth of the population, we have to consider the many ways per capita water consumption has increased in the past 90+ years.

1.  How many of the individual homes in 1920 did not have indoor plumbing?
2.  How many of the individual homes in 1920 did not have lawns that required irrigation?
3.  How many of the individual homes in 1920 did not have swimming pools?
4.  How many of the individual families in 1920 did not have automobiles that required water for cooling and washing?
5.  How many acres of agricultural land in 1920 were irrigated?
6.  How many golf courses were there in 1920?
7.  How many buildings (homes/offices/stores/public buildings) used water for cooling?
8.  How many water intensive heavy industries were there in 1920?

This list could go on ad infinitum, and others may add to it.  Oh Yeah, I just remembered that we are using fresh water for fracking!!

Things aren't much different here in Texas, where the population has increased from 4,663,228 in 1920 to  22,118,509 in 2003.  And Texas is heavily dependent on water for both agricultural purposes as well as the oil/gas industry.  Last month my wife had the opportunity to listen to Alyssa Burgin, Director of the Texas Drought Project, speak at her garden club regarding the desertification of Texas.  This particular garden club consists primarily of wealthy right-wing conservatives, who deny AGW/CC and were somewhat put off when Alyssa was introduced and the words "Climate Change " were used.  However, my wife told me that they paid rapt attention to the speaker when given absolute facts.  The Texas desert is moving Eastward at the rate of 10 miles/year.  It will soon be crossing the I-35 corridor between Dallas and San Antonio.  Fortunately, San Antonio has one of the more progressive plans to address water issues of any city in the US that is vulnerable to water shortages.  Unfortunately, San Marcos, just south of Austin is the fastest growing city in the US and has no current plans to address future water issues.  In comparing the water crisis in Texas to that of California, Alyssa stated the Texas is in "Dire Straights" while it is probably "Too Late" for California.

For those interested in more facts about drought conditions in Texas, here is the link to  the Texas Drought Project:

  http://texasdroughtproject.org/aboutus.html 

I've heard Alyssa speak several times in political venues and I highly respect her, however, their website has been a work-in-progress.  It's now mature enough for me to share it with a broader community.

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OldLeatherneck

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #54 on: February 18, 2014, 02:55:43 AM »

The New Dust Bowl

 In the 1930s, Okies saw California's Central Valley as a Garden of Eden. Now it's dying of thirst.



2009 article from Mother Jones:  http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2009/11/new-dust-bowl

When I meet Javier Vaca on a dusty strip of blacktop, he's been walking for three days. The skinny 18-year-old is being carried along in a procession of 7,000 farmworkers and farmers as it crosses California's Central Valley, his baggy jeans and hoodie standing out amid the work boots and button-downs. He's been told only one thing that matters: Marching 50 miles might earn him a job..........................
................He passes an ATV draped in an American flag, where Sharon Wakefield, an almond farmer, is resting her feet. She says she believes that the Mexicans and Central Americans who have joined the California March for Water are basically no different from her mother, who fled Oklahoma during the Great Depression to earn a pittance harvesting hay and cotton in the valley. Except this time, the state has even less to offer them: "We've got no water, no food, no future," she says.


What is happening in California is not NEW news to those who  have been impacted by the impacts of AGW/CC in California's agricultural areas.

BTW, I found the link to  this article on the Texas Drought Project website, which I referenced in my previous post on this topic. http://texasdroughtproject.org/newsonclimate.html

The suffering has been going on for years......and it will only get worse!!
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

JimD

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #55 on: February 18, 2014, 05:01:44 PM »
OLN

To show how much things are growing population wise out here.  Here are the figures for 2013

Arizona 6.626 million  up 18.7% in 10 years.

California 38.041 million up 7.2% in 10 years.

And they are building houses in our area at a good clip.  As it has been for a long time the economy is based upon all the retired people who have and are moving here to live.  Nice weather.  But down in the Valley (Phoenix) it has been pushing 90 F for a few days.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

ritter

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #56 on: February 18, 2014, 06:13:28 PM »
Possible chance (80%) of rain in the later part of the 10-day forecast here. I was ready to buy a couple ~500 gallon tanks to capture rain off my shed for use on the vegies later in the year. But I'm not sure the investment is worth it since it's looking like we may not get any more rain this year.  :-\

ccgwebmaster

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #57 on: February 18, 2014, 06:53:27 PM »
Possible chance (80%) of rain in the later part of the 10-day forecast here. I was ready to buy a couple ~500 gallon tanks to capture rain off my shed for use on the vegies later in the year. But I'm not sure the investment is worth it since it's looking like we may not get any more rain this year.  :-\

The only thing you can be sure of is that whatever you decide will be wrong?

sidd

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #58 on: February 18, 2014, 09:01:35 PM »
Re: rainwater tanks

get some used totes, 250 gall a pop (from ag or feed or food companies)
clean em out,
i can find them on the east coast for as low as 25$ a pop.
100$ gets you a thousand gallons

sidd

JimD

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #59 on: February 18, 2014, 09:10:01 PM »
Re: rainwater tanks

get some used totes, 250 gall a pop (from ag or feed or food companies)
clean em out,
i can find them on the east coast for as low as 25$ a pop.
100$ gets you a thousand gallons

sidd

I used to try and give the 1 ton fertilizer totes away and could not find anyone who wanted them.  I am not sure that they are water tight but one could line them with plastic perhaps. 

Is that the same thing you are talking about?
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

ritter

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #60 on: February 18, 2014, 10:35:57 PM »
Re: rainwater tanks

get some used totes, 250 gall a pop (from ag or feed or food companies)
clean em out,
i can find them on the east coast for as low as 25$ a pop.
100$ gets you a thousand gallons

sidd


I can't find them for less than ~$150. And I don't have a truck.  >:(

Jim,
sidd is talking about these:


The only thing you can be sure of is that whatever you decide will be wrong?


 :D It's a definite trend in my life!

JackTaylor

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #61 on: February 19, 2014, 11:57:01 AM »
Jack Taylor, I don't know much about the Colorado but the Santa Ynez is similar to the Salinas River.
A lot of the same issues ,steelhead, endangered songbirds, off road vehicles , agriculture runoff and pesticides, etc. If you look at this link for the Salinas you will see a picture with heavy off road vehicle damaged river bottom. I am the guy who goes down and tries to preserve part of the river from experiencing similar problems. It is about the most dangerous it gets around here. The ORV folks carry, I don't.

 http://conservationconsulting.net/UpsideDownRiver.html

Bruce Steele,
That picture of the Salinas River bottom is pathetic.  I hope your river never gets to that condition.

JackTaylor

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #62 on: February 19, 2014, 12:27:04 PM »

What is happening in California is not NEW news to those who  have been impacted by the impacts of AGW/CC in California's agricultural areas.

BTW, I found the link to  this article on the Texas Drought Project website, which I referenced in my previous post on this topic. http://texasdroughtproject.org/newsonclimate.html

The suffering has been going on for years......and it will only get worse!!


OldLeatherneck,

Are you still near the banks of the Guadalupe?
Thinking I read sometime back you were contemplating relocating to a different "political clime."

Since the town of Robert Lee, near Lake E.V. Spence on the upper Colorado (Texas Colorado), received so much attention several years ago for loss of water, west Texas water has become a topic of discussion in my extended family.

While east Texas seems O.K. - via reference of Data App: Track Texas Reservoir Levels
http://www.texastribune.org/library/data/texas-reservoir-levels/
also
Water Data for Texas Data App: Texas Reservoir Levels
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

It's amazing to hear of so many people praying for Hurricanes to hit their part of their state !!!

Perhaps a separate thread/topic on the Texas Drought should be started as Texas with its gas and oil production is a USA and "world item" IMO.
   
« Last Edit: February 19, 2014, 01:47:01 PM by JackTaylor »

OldLeatherneck

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #63 on: February 19, 2014, 04:09:58 PM »
OldLeatherneck,

Are you still near the banks of the Guadalupe?
Thinking I read sometime back you were contemplating relocating to a different "political clime."..........................

............It's amazing to hear of so many people praying for Hurricanes to hit their part of their state !!!

Perhaps a separate thread/topic on the Texas Drought should be started as Texas with its gas and oil production is a USA and "world item" IMO.
   


Jack,

Yes, I do live less than a mile from the Guadalupe river and it is running at a very low level right now.  We are planning to leave here as soon as our house sells.  While the primary reason is to be closer to family, the political "clime" in this part of Texas makes it just that easier to leave.

I've taken your suggestion and started a new topic to discuss Texas drought conditions and water issues!!


http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,753.0.html
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ccgwebmaster

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #64 on: February 19, 2014, 04:43:19 PM »
It's interesting - and rather telling - to consider the notion that places in America could now start to experience the sharper edge of a globalised market place.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26124989

That's similar in concept to farmers in Argentina exporting food when people in the country cannot afford to eat.

Question is - at what point does the US - proponent of free trade that it is - start to consider export tariffs or quotas or embargoes?

Whether you ship the product or not, there is an effect somewhere. You can't avoid the shortfall landing somewhere. The resource limit and consequences can be passed around like a hot potato but not eliminated, at least not in the context of modern civilisation running under currently dominant ideologies.

JimD

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #65 on: February 19, 2014, 04:48:53 PM »
rittrer

Got it, thanks.  In my area there was an outfit making bio-diesel and they seemed to have all of those at their place sitting full of used oil from restaurants all over the area.  Never saw a used one for sale.  At my place I had a 1550 gallon tank which caught the water from the roof just like your picture.  In Australia many people had special tanks at their places which were 5000 to 10000 liters if I remember correctly.  But you could not pump ground water there (too salty) so it was catch water from the roof or else.

On the SW drought stuff I note that Phoenix just finished a 5 day in a row stretch of record high temps.  Thus well exceeding by mid-Feb the statistical total record high days expected in an entire year for a place keeping records back to the late 1800's.  Might be a warm year if that kind of trend holds.  We were in t shirts and shorts here in the mountains the last few days. 
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #66 on: February 20, 2014, 04:24:02 AM »
Below is an interesting comment from the RealClimate blog comment section.

297.I offered the speculation near the last of January, that empty Sierra reservoirs could still be significantly replenished if the blocking ridge broke down, but that, should rains continue to fail, damages from drought could eclipse such recent climatic heartaches as storm Sandy and the inundation of New Orleans. Today marks a noteworthy moment in this situation, for while the ridge did indeed yield to abrupt multi-day, record-setting torrent in early February, this month’s accumulation has now fallen back to dead-on average. Moreover, the remainder of the month is now forecast to be quite dry.

Sacramento can illustrate California’s Central Valley. On average, it receives 82% of its annual twenty-one inches, during five rainy months from November thru March, with the tapers beginning and ending this season separated by an utterly dry July. The drought started last Winter in mid-season, unfortunate because flood control is practiced in early season releases. Rain in quarter I of 2013 was off by 3/4ths, and the blocking ridge set up following a record half-inch of rain which fell on the fall equinox. From there, to the end of January 20014, Sacramento received two rains and a drizzle which totaled an inch and a half, off 87% for that interval. Thus, should the current 10-day forecast prove out, Sacramento will have wracked up a deficit only four days worth shy of a full-year, 21 inch shortfall, since January 1, 2013.

Salient circumstances at present include a forecast zero flow nomination to the State Water Project, a counter-intuitive assessment that supplies for southern, highly populated counties are far less seriously threatened due to more robust storage, Bay Area delta eco systems threatened with “collapse”, and land fallowing in the San Joaquin running to half a million acres (of a CA total of ~8 million irrigated, that produce nearly half the nation’s fruits and veggies). Lastly, the harrowing prospect for mass residential service loss, hangs on the receipt of March moisture, and frantic local efforts to effect emergency alternative water sources.

Comment by Dave Peters — 18 Feb 2014 @ 9:20 PM
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

ritter

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #67 on: February 20, 2014, 05:22:29 PM »
Jim,

Considerably less "interesting" to those of us living here!  :)

We have some rain in the forecast next week. A week away, so let's see if it holds....

JimD

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #68 on: February 20, 2014, 05:48:30 PM »
Jim,

Considerably less "interesting" to those of us living here!  :)

We have some rain in the forecast next week. A week away, so let's see if it holds....

Since you live in California I would think that you should be becoming one with your misery as a way of reaching enlightenment.  ;D

I think it was Nietzsche who said that "Suffering builds character." to paraphrase a bit.  I told my philosophy teacher that was undoubtedly true but what he failed to mention is that it builds bad character most of the time.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #69 on: February 25, 2014, 10:37:54 AM »
According to the BBC's weather man rain and snow are finally on their way to California in quantity:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/26314753

Storm after storm from mid-week onwards
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Shared Humanity

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #70 on: February 25, 2014, 03:30:04 PM »
Great news! Hopefully the heavy rainfall is steady, allowing it to soak into the horribly dry hard ground.

JimD

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #71 on: February 25, 2014, 04:58:45 PM »
The weather forecasters are saying that the coming storm will drop as much as 1 inch here is AZ.  That would be big as here in Prescott we have not had more than a few drops since early Dec.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #72 on: February 27, 2014, 02:49:05 PM »
I decided to summarize the California and US drought situation and the resulting climate impacts - which are sobering despite whatever rain might fall.

See: http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/


Shared Humanity

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #73 on: February 27, 2014, 05:04:50 PM »
I decided to summarize the California and US drought situation and the resulting climate impacts - which are sobering despite whatever rain might fall.

See: http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/


Well, that was a depressing read. I am a news junkie and I have an index (subjective) that I use to evaluate the seriousness of any situation that is reported. The index is related to the number of anonymous expert sources that get quoted in articles. These experts choose to  remain anonymous  because they are sharing discussions by experts that are occurring behind closed doors. If they are recognized as the source of information they could be locked out of further discussions.


ritter

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #74 on: February 27, 2014, 05:24:18 PM »
We got an inch and a half of rain yesterday. It was wonderful to feel it on my face again. It doesn't fix the drought, but it sure helped the soul.  :)

RaenorShine

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #75 on: March 06, 2014, 03:50:52 PM »
Radio Ecoshock have an hour long California Drought Special this week

RADIO ECOSHOCK SPECIAL ON CALIFORNIA DROUGHT Despite recent rains, California's reservoirs are near empty, snow-pack light, and groundwater depleted. Four experts on a drought that really started in 2006, impacts on economy, food, farming, and nature. Guests: Dr. Peter Gleick, Dr. Jay Famiglietti, David Schroeder, Dr. Reagan Waskom


http://www.ecoshock.info/2014/03/california-drought-is-this-big-one.html

JimD

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #76 on: March 06, 2014, 04:37:10 PM »
RaenorShine

Thanks that is interesting stuff.  Note the following quote from your link.

Jay Familietti describes what we know. He says the average of prediction of when California will run out of groundwater at current rates is 60 years from now. After that, the glory days of big populations and big cities may be done. Some experts say it will come sooner than that.

60 years to empty (or less of course) but what that really means is that 30 years from now a big area will already be depleted as aquifers are not equally distributed and of even depth.  Like with the Ogalalla in the mid-west there are already areas which are dry.  Big changes coming in ag in Calif over the next 20 years.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

CraigsIsland

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #77 on: March 10, 2014, 06:58:10 PM »
"Weekly Drought Update (3-10-2014)" from CA Governors Office. http://www.calema.ca.gov/NewsandMedia/Documents/2014%20Weekly%20Drought%20Update/Weekly%20Drought%20Update%20(03-10-14).pdf

Good bits of information on the situation in CA in that report

Lots of general information to other links/sites/data in the following link: http://www.water.ca.gov/waterconditions/

JimD

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #78 on: March 10, 2014, 07:59:49 PM »
CraigsIsland

I noted this from the last paragraph of your link.  Not a good sing for later in the year.  Triple normal fire activity.

Fire Danger:  665 fires have been reported across the state since January 1, burning 1,388 acres.  CALFIRE reports that this current fire activity is well above the year-to-date average of 223 fires, burning 773 acres.  22 new fires were reported over the past week.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #79 on: March 20, 2014, 02:19:11 AM »
LAKE OF THE WOODS, California (The New York Times) –  People in this mountain town straddling the San Andreas Fault are used to scrapping for water. The lake for which it is named went dry 40 years ago. But now, this tiny community is dealing with its most unsettling threat yet: It could run out of water by summer.

As of last week, just two of the five wells drilled into the dry lake bed that serve its 300 homes were producing water. The mountains of the nearby Los Padres National Forest got their first dusting of snow — and it was a light one — last week; it is the winter snow that feeds the wells come spring...

We did drill three test holes, and we found nothing,” Mr. Stowell said. “Went down, three, four, five hundred feet. And we didn’t find anything. Now we’re going to go down more, 1,000 feet.




http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2014/03/in-parched-california-town-taps-run.html
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #80 on: April 11, 2014, 01:57:07 AM »
California snowpack water content, which provides about 1/3 of the state's water, was measured at 32% of normal on April 8.

http://pacinst.org/news/update-on-the-california-drought-april-10-2014/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

JimD

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #81 on: April 11, 2014, 09:16:58 PM »
Sig

And we are moving into the dry time of the year out here now so there will not be too much more moisture until the monsoon season here in AZ in July and when the summer high pressure system breaks down in CA (Sept-Oct).

Here in central AZ we have had an astonishingly dry winter.  About 0.1 inch at my house since early Dec. 6.6 inches below normal for that time period.  And only 2% of what is normal for this time of year.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #82 on: April 17, 2014, 07:15:49 PM »
"Bombshell: Study Ties Epic California Drought, ‘Frigid East’ To Manmade Climate Change"

I thought at first their title was sarcastic.  But no. After years of scientists saying, "We can't tie any specific weather pattern to global warming" -- here is, apparently, the first study that does.  Bad news for the US: the jet stream pattern it predicts would mean more drought for the West and more frigid weather for the East in the years ahead.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/04/15/3426810/california-drought-climate-change/
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Shared Humanity

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #83 on: April 17, 2014, 09:12:30 PM »
"Bombshell: Study Ties Epic California Drought, ‘Frigid East’ To Manmade Climate Change"

I thought at first their title was sarcastic.  But no. After years of scientists saying, "We can't tie any specific weather pattern to global warming" -- here is, apparently, the first study that does.  Bad news for the US: the jet stream pattern it predicts would mean more drought for the West and more frigid weather for the East in the years ahead.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/04/15/3426810/california-drought-climate-change/


As long as normal precipitation occurs, frigid for the East is fine. In fact, snow precipitation is preferable in the winter as it encourages more of the moisture to soak into the ground with less  run off.

Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #84 on: April 18, 2014, 02:23:38 AM »
....
As long as normal precipitation occurs, frigid for the East is fine. In fact, snow precipitation is preferable in the winter as it encourages more of the moisture to soak into the ground with less  run off.

Maybe "frigid for the East is fine" from a water perspective, but I bet most easterners would disagree with you otherwise.  The cold this winter was brutal.  It caused infrastructure damage, and there were emergencies declared due to natural gas and propane shortages, with major price hikes.  Plus, the record snows caused their own problems.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #85 on: April 18, 2014, 02:28:50 AM »
Half of the CA snowpack gone in one week in some areas!

"In California's Sierra Nevada Mountains, where runoff from the spring snowpack provides much-needed water supplies during the dry season, half of the snowpack's liquid water equivalent melted in just the past week in some areas, due to temperatures that soared as high as 12 degrees Fahrenheit above average of early April, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor."

Click on the "liquid water equivalent" link in the article for snowpack comparison images.

http://mashable.com/2014/04/17/california-snowpack-melt-drought/
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #86 on: April 18, 2014, 06:56:12 AM »
Masters includes an impressive literature review...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2665

Evidence accumulates.

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #87 on: April 18, 2014, 10:28:31 PM »
....
As long as normal precipitation occurs, frigid for the East is fine. In fact, snow precipitation is preferable in the winter as it encourages more of the moisture to soak into the ground with less  run off.

Maybe "frigid for the East is fine" from a water perspective, but I bet most easterners would disagree with you otherwise.  The cold this winter was brutal.  It caused infrastructure damage, and there were emergencies declared due to natural gas and propane shortages, with major price hikes.  Plus, the record snows caused their own problems.

And if cold long into spring winters become the norm it will have a strong negative impact on agriculture production.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #88 on: April 19, 2014, 03:13:52 AM »
CA groundwater discussion:

"April 18th, 2014, Oakland, Calif. – Groundwater has been on the lips (both literally and metaphorically) of Californians since the drought began. During normal years, groundwater use accounts for about 40% of total water use in the state and can increase up to 60% or more during dry years. This has resulted in groundwater levels that have been steadily declining since the early 1960s and these levels have yet to totally rebound, indicating unsustainable use (see figure...)."

http://pacinst.org/news/update-on-the-california-drought-april-18/
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #89 on: April 23, 2014, 12:15:28 AM »
"After a warm April so far, California snowpack down to ~18% of normal. Just 4.5" of water equivalent remain."

https://mobile.twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/458297361878351872/photo/1

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #90 on: April 23, 2014, 12:36:03 AM »
18% of normal is crazy! :o

NPR reported this morning that 40% of the Central Valley is expected to be left fallow due to water shortages. It's the most productive agricultural region in the US. It won't be critical to food calories, but you'll feel it in your pocket everywhere I suspect. Employment impacts in the area will be huge as well.

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #91 on: April 23, 2014, 03:45:56 AM »
Employment impacts in the area will be huge as well.

What is the estimated number of illegals working there? That might be interesting - as they can't trivially easily go back and forth across the border... nor can they easily avail themselves of social support mechanisms.

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #92 on: April 23, 2014, 08:14:43 AM »
Here's another interesting knock on effect of the drought, this time on Food Banks. In times of shortage those with the least get hurt first:

http://www.sfgate.com/default/article/California-drought-Food-banks-drying-up-too-5416846.php

This site pulls together a lot of news on the California drought if you haven't seen it

http://www.aquafornia.com/index.php/category/weather-snowpack/


ritter

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #93 on: April 23, 2014, 06:57:14 PM »
Employment impacts in the area will be huge as well.

What is the estimated number of illegals working there? That might be interesting - as they can't trivially easily go back and forth across the border... nor can they easily avail themselves of social support mechanisms.

I'm not sure of the number but it's high. As you know, climate change will impact the poorest and under served first, even in the US.

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #94 on: April 23, 2014, 08:40:14 PM »
What is the estimated number of illegals working there? That might be interesting - as they can't trivially easily go back and forth across the border... nor can they easily avail themselves of social support mechanisms.

I'm not sure of the number but it's high. As you know, climate change will impact the poorest and under served first, even in the US.

I can see scope for problems whatever happens in that regard, assuming a significant drop in demand for illegal workers.

On the one hand, it might drive people back across the border - but that would leave the agricultural sector significantly under supplied for labour when conditions improve (as happened in some states when they cracked down and scared off the illegal labour - which appears to be necessary to sectors of the US economy).

On the other hand without access to the (limited anyway) social safety nets of the US - those who decide not to return may be driven to desperate measures to get by anyway. Damned if you do, damned if you don't (given the improbability of the US meaningfully reforming the immigration system).

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #95 on: April 25, 2014, 01:58:16 AM »
Employment impacts in the area will be huge as well.

What is the estimated number of illegals working there? That might be interesting - as they can't trivially easily go back and forth across the border... nor can they easily avail themselves of social support mechanisms.

I'm not sure of the number but it's high. As you know, climate change will impact the poorest and under served first, even in the US.

I am at my sons little farm outside of Sacramento this week and we were talking about this a few days ago.

He told me that there are not high levels of illegals in California working the farms any longer and that this has resulted in a big jump in hourly wages (Americans just won't work for the lower rates).  But there is high unemployment in the Central Valley and the ag sector anyway. The need to fallow such large amounts of land due to the drought has cut the demand for all kinds of products from lots of businesses which support the ag sector thus less employment and of course less land to farm means less workers needed.

Driving up I5 there are just huge amounts of dead orchards visible.  Plus just lots of fallow land.  Down south by Bakersfield the grass in the hills has not even greened up yet (or maybe won't at all I suppose).  Looks like Arizona.

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #96 on: April 25, 2014, 03:09:07 AM »
The latest US Drought Monitor is out.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

This week marks the first time in the 15-year history of the Monitor that 100% of California was in moderate to exceptional drought.

The cost of the drought in California is estimated at least $7.48 billion in direct and indirect costs, according to Mike Wade, executive director of the California Farm Water Coalition. This includes crop losses and about 20,000 job losses tied to 800,000 acres of idled farmland.

The amount of acres idled equals the size of Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose, Fresno and Bakersfield combined — some 1,250 square miles.

Crops such as iceberg lettuce, broccoli, bell peppers, cantaloupes and tomatoes are being hardest hit, the farm coalition reports.

"If you combine the current drought with the nearly $450 million in damage to the state's citrus crop from a freeze last December, the state's agriculture has really had a rough couple of months," says Steve Bowen, a meteorologist with Aon Benfield, a global reinsurance firm based in London.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/04/24/california-western-drought/8097827/
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ritter

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #97 on: April 25, 2014, 05:41:28 PM »
I am at my sons little farm outside of Sacramento this week and we were talking about this a few days ago.

He told me that there are not high levels of illegals in California working the farms any longer and that this has resulted in a big jump in hourly wages (Americans just won't work for the lower rates).

Interesting. There are definitely a fair number of illegals (or marginally legal) workers up here in wine country. Although the numbers definitely dropped during and after the rescission when the building industry collapsed. Still, white folk are generally too lazy and self entitled to do ag labor and grapes don't pick themselves.  ;)

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #98 on: April 25, 2014, 08:27:30 PM »
CA Drought Monitor numbers over time:

"@sftransitblog: CA drought: an inexorable, terrifying march of deeper shades of red. Via @DroughtCenter http://t.co/RxeLuvdiPI    "
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ritter

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« Reply #99 on: April 30, 2014, 10:42:39 PM »
This current ~20* above average heat wave sure isn't helping things. 1,100 homes evacuated in Rancho Cucamonga due to the wildfire there. It's going to be a whopper of a fire season.

http://www.sanluisobispo.com/2014/04/30/3043749/wind-gusts-drive-fire-in-san-bernardino.html?sp=/99/177/348//