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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #150 on: March 06, 2014, 02:35:57 AM »
I am not sure how significant (or accurate) this Albany University forecast is out to March 13, 2014; however, I am posting it for consistency with the previous series of AlbanyU forecasts that I have posted.
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OldLeatherneck

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #151 on: March 06, 2014, 04:40:37 AM »
The following linked reference concludes that the minimum equilibrium climate sensitivity is significantly higher than 3 degrees C, due to the influence of convective atmospheric  mixing dehydrates the low-cloud layer in the tropics at a rate that increases as the climate warms.  It is my concern that when we combine the influence of both global warming and a Super El Nino on convective atmospheric mixing near the equator (possibly by late Fall of 2014), could the resulting local decrease in cloud cover temporarily drive climate sensitivity higher than expected, which could push some earth systems (say severe droughts in tropical rainforests, or say methane emissions from the permafrost) to "ratchet-up" to a more positive state from accelerating global warming faster than expected:


I'm beginning to sense a convergence of several factors that could negatively influence the earth's minimum equilibrium climate sensitivity.  With the impending 2014/2015 El Nino, this might be a time to consider all of these factors.  Several weeks ago Neven posted "Decreasing Arctic albedo boosts global warming" on the ASIB.  As we all know Albedo has not been adequately accounted for in many of the IPCC models.  Recently, Jim Hunt started a thread in Consequences, titled "AVOIDing dangerous climate change. Can Global Warming be Limited to Two Degrees?" .  In that thread (Reply #28:), ASLR provided some alarming information as to how ocean acidification reduces the biogenic production of the marine sulfur component dimethylsulphide (DMS), which helps cool the planet.  When all of these factors are combined with the better understood radiative forcing factors, I fear that a Super El-Nino in 2014/15 will take us to a newer and more hostile climate regime than what we are currently dealing with.


Full Quote @ http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=post;quote=21274;topic=761.0

The following linked reference (followed by another link to a summary which, together with the two attached figures, is better than the abstract), that discusses the positive feedback caused by the acidification of the oceans reducing sulfur flux from the ocean which then results in more radiative forcing (see the second attached image) particularly over the Southern Ocean:

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1981.html

Global warming amplified by reduced sulphur fluxes as a result of ocean acidification; Katharina D. Six, Silvia Kloster, Tatiana Ilyina, Stephen D. Archer, Kai Zhang & Ernst Maier-Reimer; Nature Climate Change;  (2013); doi:10.1038/nclimate1981


http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/nc/en/communication/news/single-news/article/climate-change-ocean-acidification-amplifies-global-warming.html

Summary:

"Scientists at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Dr. Katharina Six, Dr. Silvia Kloster, Dr. Tatiana Ilyina, the late Dr. Ernst Maier-Reimer and two co-authors from the US, demonstrate that ocean acidification may amplify global warming through the biogenic production of the marine sulfur component dimethylsulphide (DMS).

It is common knowledge that fossil fuel emissions of CO2 lead to global warming. The ocean, by taking up significant amounts of CO2, lessens the effect of this anthropogenic disturbance. The "price" for storing CO2 is an ongoing decrease of seawater pH (ocean acidification1), a process that is likely to have diverse and harmful impacts on marine biota, food webs, and ecosystems. Until now, however, climate change and ocean acidification have been widely considered as uncoupled consequences of the anthropogenic CO2 perturbation2. Recently, ocean biologists measured in experiments using seawater enclosures (mesocosms)3 that DMS concentrations were markedly lower in a low-pH environment (Figure 1).

When DMS is emitted to the atmosphere it oxidizes to gas phase sulfuric acid, which can form new aerosol particles that impact cloud albedo and, hence, cool the Earth's surface. As marine DMS emissions are the largest natural source for atmospheric sulfur, changes in their strength have the potential to notably alter the Earth's radiation budget. Based on the results from the mesocosm studies the researchers from the MPI-M have established relationships between pH changes and DMS concentrations in seawater. They projected changes in DMS emissions into the atmosphere in a future climate with enhanced ocean acidification using the MPI-M Earth system model4. In the journal Nature Climate Change it is demonstrated, that modeled DMS emissions decrease by about 18 (±3)% in 2100 compared to preindustrial times as a result of the combined effects of ocean acidification and climate change. The reduced DMS emissions induce a significant positive radiative forcing of which 83% (0.4 W/m2) can, in the model, be attributed to the impact of ocean acidification alone (Figure 2).
Compared to the Earth system response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 this is tantamount to an equilibrium temperature increase between 0.23 and 0.48 K. Simply put, their research shows that ocean acidification has the potential to speed up global warming considerably.

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Bruce Steele

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #152 on: March 06, 2014, 05:52:36 AM »
Oldleatherneck, I have been rather remiss at updating the "carbon cycle page "lately but my last post referenced a Riebesell et al 2013 paper without a appropriate link...see below

On page 5623 #5     "Concentrations of DMS were reduced by 35% at intermediate(340-600pCo2) and60% at high( 675-1085pCo2) levels.".      I added the pCo2 levels to this quote ,it is a mole fraction in the report but I can't make the little u correctly.     

http://www.biogeosciences.net/10/5619/2013/bg-10-5619-2013.pdf

« Last Edit: March 06, 2014, 06:11:36 AM by Bruce Steele »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #153 on: March 06, 2014, 04:27:41 PM »
Also,

For those who haven't checked the discussion in the AVOID thread in the Science folder, I have recently posted that attached image of changes in specific humidity measure over the oceans by NOAA in 2012.  The me it is clear that during periods of positive PDO the atmospheric specific humidity increases rapidly, while in periods of negative PDO the specific humidity increases more slowly.  Thus as increased atmospheric water vapor accelerates global warming rates, I conclude that that as we enter the coming period of positive PDO that increasing atmospheric specific humidity will be yet another transient positive feedback factor.
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deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #154 on: March 06, 2014, 04:36:36 PM »
NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch, officially, as of March 6th.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

Quote
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with about a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall.


idunno

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #155 on: March 06, 2014, 05:43:48 PM »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #156 on: March 06, 2014, 07:18:56 PM »
idunno,

Thanks for the link to the Dr. Masters' article, I thought that it was excellent (as his articles normally are).  However, while his article did point out the past contribution that the MJO made to the WWB in the Western Pacific; his article did not point out that the MJO will be moving eastward across the Pacific for the next month, which is perfect timing for reinforcing (via thunderstorms to disrupt the normal Walker Cell circulation pattern into an El Nino pattern) the Kelvin wave as it moves eastward.  The attached forecast map (from the following NOAA link) for the next 15-day makes the timing of this contribution more clear:

The caption for the figure is: "Forecasts of MJO associated anomalous OLR for the next 15 days from the constructed analogue forecasts based of forecasts of RMM1 and RMM2. Blue (yellow/red) shades show negative (positive) OLR anomalies and enhanced (suppressed) convection. Forecasts do not include direct contributions from other climate modes such as ENSO, monsoons, etc. - only the MJO."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/forca.shtml

Furthermore, while it is nice to see that NOAA has issued an El Nino watch (as deep octopus cites), we should all remember that NOAA needs to be (correctly so) relatively conservative in their warnings (based on data through March 4); however, I expect by the end of March that the NOAA forecast will give more than a 50% chance of an El Nino by June, based on the on-going monsoon trough, and MJO conditions (plus the trade winds look to be weakening to me).
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deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #157 on: March 06, 2014, 08:27:14 PM »
NOAA would probably wait until El Niño can be unequivocally observed (say, the third month with Niño 3.4 above 0.5 C) before issuing an "Advisory" stating that El Niño is in the here and now. That was the case for the last El Niño in 2009. In 2012, they maintained a "Watch" for a few months before pulling it in November. Nothing was happening. More likely, they will probably wait until summer to figure if the watch is warranted, should be bumped to an advisory on the grounds of an obvious El Niño event, or pull it altogether. Right now, we don't even have a positive seasonal read (-0.7 for DJF) of which to speak. Of course this is changing rapidly. Likely, we go positive on Niño 3.4 this month, but that would still mean waiting a couple months longer to eke out a seasonal average of 0.5. The odds are good, mind us. There's no reciprocating cool, upwelling Kelvin wave in the cards yet that would obviously disturb this process. This could always change, but I'm reporting only based on the evidence we have.

But what matters at this point is that NOAA is basically saying, "Let's get this possibility of an El Niño on the board, given the evidence, but we're not ready to get ahead of the spring barrier."

End of April and heading into May is about the point when all our hard work covering the Kelvin wave, the westerlies, etc. is going to either bear fruit or not. One thing is clear: the more the trends are sustained throughout the next couple of months, the better the odds. An El Niño event by May or June would be very mature in its youth, indeed, and would become self-reinforcing until an violent disturbance in the oscillation again occurs.

I think your remarks on the MJO, ASLR, are on point, and they are part of what is guiding us through this uncertainty. If there's an El Niño to be had, we can maybe look back to this point in March and see that it will have been the strong westerlies and the volume of warm water that explains why it happened.

And update to the ocean surface temperature anomaly maps give us some interesting clues about what is happening around South America to the east of 110 W. I suspect that the warm Kelvin wave has maybe already breached the surface. I'm monitoring GODAS' weekly updates to the subsurface temperatures to see if this is in fact the case, or something else is going on. Such an event would signal that the upwelling phase has effectively ended.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #158 on: March 06, 2014, 10:55:08 PM »
deep octopus,

My guess (but only a guess) is that the relatively warm surface temperatures of the coast of Ecuador may well be relatedly to a slow down in the Humboldt current which normal delivers cold water along the coast from the South.  I think that we should think that the PDO is now positive and thus the large Pacific climate state may be reinforcing the more local El Nino factors.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #159 on: March 06, 2014, 11:45:48 PM »
Not to cross post too much, but in the Mauna Loa CO2 thread in the Science folder, JimD referred to the possibility that the relatively flat portion of the CO2 curve from January to early March 2014 (see the attached image from NOAA), maybe related to the reduction in CO2 emissions in the Eastern Pacific associated with the initial stages of a Super El Nino (such as the 1997-1998 event).  If so, he raises the possibility of NOAA adopting such observations as part of the factors that they consider when determining the probability of an impending Super El Nino.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #160 on: March 07, 2014, 12:08:46 AM »
Also, not to over-sell my point to deep octopus that the warming of the SST off the coast of Ecuador may be more related to conditions of the coast of Central and South America (instead of changes in upwelling/down-welling associated with the Kelvin wave [which I believe is still further to the west]); I attached the accompanying earth wind map of the Eastern Pacific for March 6 2014, which shows: (a) stunted southerlies winds along the Chilean/Peruvian coasts; and (b) low trade winds in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific area.  Such conditions would both: (a) reduce the upwelling of cold deep water off the coast of Ecuador, and (b) deliver less cold water from the Humboldt Current up to coastal Ecuador:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #161 on: March 07, 2014, 12:55:09 AM »
The apparent mechanism (see attached image) cited by Sherwood et al 2014, is that such convective mixing dehydrates the low-cloud layer at a rate that increases as the climate warms, thus creating a positive feedback for more warming

The caption for the attached image, includes the following: "Illustration of atmospheric overturning circulations.  Deep overturning strongly coupled to the hydrological cycle and atmospheric energy budget is shown by solid lines; lower-tropospheric mixing is shown by dashed lines."

Considering the marked impact of a Super El Nino on the humid boundary layer, it is easy to imagine that a strong El Nino could amplify the positive feedback mechanism discussed by Sherwood et al. 2014.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Bruce Steele

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #162 on: March 07, 2014, 01:18:01 AM »
 ASLR, you posted while i was typing. I will read Sherwood and maybe that will give me some better insight.    Atmospheric Co2 flux with the oceans is sensitive to plankton growth in the spring, as well as upwelling and downwelling of surface and deep water masses. Co2 levels are also influenced by terrestrial plant growth .It is both seasonally and geographically influenced. Some areas of the ocean tend to be Co2 sinks and others like the eastern tropical pacific tending to be sources.  The actual Co2 levels at any one location is influenced by both time of year and it's latitude north or south of the equator but atmospheric Co2 at altitude is a mixed product of all these various factors. The mixing of atmospheric Co2 isn't something I have read up on but the Co2 levels at the top of Mauna Loa are the product of all these influences. 
 I am linking a graph of Co2 fluxes with latitude.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/feel2331/images/fig05.gif

Here is the paper this graph came from.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/feel2331/feel2331.shtml

Trying to pinpoint the reasons for a temporary flattening of the Co2 growth curve at Mauna Loa ( it is undoubtably temporary ) requires the quantification of the various fluxes. In real time I think this isn't possible...   If and when the El Nino does show up in 3.4 I am certain the dissolved Co2 in the sea surface waters will drop dramatically. We will see the pCo2 drop at TAO 110 when that warm water at depth we have been watching cross the Pacific rises to the surface.  The pCo2 levels at TAO 110W are still very high so explaining the flattening of the Mauna Loa Co2 growth curve is dependent on something other than the current high level of ventilation happening there. I looked at TAO 155W today and pCO2 is still at about 500. I would think 155W would show a drop before 110W. Soon I think but it is the first potential El Nino since those bouy's were installed so I am speculating. Time will tell.         

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #163 on: March 07, 2014, 02:09:04 AM »
Bruce,

I agree with all of your concerns about the possibility of considering using CO2 measurements at Mauna Loa as a predictor of large El Nino events.  I believe that it would takes several super events with similar measurements (correlated/corrected for all of the possible contributing factors that you mentioned).  I have not looked at the Mauna Loa readings during either 1982-1983 or the 1997-1998 El Nino events, and I do not know if daily/weeks readings are available for those period; but it would be interest to see if they exhibit any of the current behavior.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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crandles

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #164 on: March 07, 2014, 01:18:01 PM »
Weekly Mauna Loa back to 1974 is available at

ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_weekly_mlo.txt

The way they do 365 days ago and 3653 days ago indicate ESRL have daily numbers - but I would think they are a bit noisy and weekly is likely to suit the purpose better.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #165 on: March 07, 2014, 02:53:43 PM »
Regarding a partial status report on current conditions:

The first image from ( http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/SSHA_10day.png ) shows the 10-day average ocean elevation for the Pacific Ocean, which shows the progress of the Kelvin wave across the equatorial Pacific (note the 20cm elevation anomaly).

The second image shows a high probability of new tropical cyclones in the Tropical South Pacific Ocean.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #166 on: March 07, 2014, 04:57:29 PM »
After scanning the Mauna Loa CO2 records that crandles linked to, my general impression is that it would be difficult to attribute any given change in CO2 to any one factor such as the on-set of a Super El Nino, by itself.  However, if one thinks about both ENSO and the PDO synergy, then one might be able to see more of the holistic patterns.

In this frame of thinking, I present a little bit of additional information about the PDO cycle, together with some limited discussion of the influence of the PDO on both the prospects of a Super El Nino in 2014-2015 and on possible influences on the MLO CO2 readings:

For those not familiar with the PDO, the first image from Washington University shows the Pacific Ocean in both a typical positive PDO (in the left panel) and a typical negative PDO condition (in the right panel); while the second image (from the same source) compare a positive PDO state to a strong El Nino condition.  The synergies between a positive PDO and a strong El Nino condition is clear from these images.

The following table from the Washington University link shows PDO data from 1981 to 2014:


http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest


YEAR     JAN    FEB    MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC

1981     0.59   1.46   0.99   1.45   1.75   1.69   0.84   0.18   0.42   0.18   0.80   0.67
1982     0.34   0.20   0.19  -0.19  -0.58  -0.78   0.58   0.39   0.84   0.37  -0.25   0.26
1983     0.56   1.14   2.11   1.87   1.80   2.36   3.51   1.85   0.91   0.96   1.02   1.69
1984     1.50   1.21   1.77   1.52   1.30   0.18  -0.18  -0.03   0.67   0.58   0.71   0.82
1985     1.27   0.94   0.57   0.19   0.00   0.18   1.07   0.81   0.44   0.29  -0.75   0.38
1986     1.12   1.61   2.18   1.55   1.16   0.89   1.38   0.22   0.22   1.00   1.77   1.77
1987     1.88   1.75   2.10   2.16   1.85   0.73   2.01   2.83   2.44   1.36   1.47   1.27
1988     0.93   1.24   1.42   0.94   1.20   0.74   0.64   0.19  -0.37  -0.10  -0.02  -0.43
1989    -0.95  -1.02  -0.83  -0.32   0.47   0.36   0.83   0.09   0.05  -0.12  -0.50  -0.21
1990    -0.30  -0.65  -0.62   0.27   0.44   0.44   0.27   0.11   0.38  -0.69  -1.69  -2.23
1991    -2.02  -1.19  -0.74  -1.01  -0.51  -1.47  -0.10   0.36   0.65   0.49   0.42   0.09
1992     0.05   0.31   0.67   0.75   1.54   1.26   1.90   1.44   0.83   0.93   0.93   0.53
1993     0.05   0.19   0.76   1.21   2.13   2.34   2.35   2.69   1.56   1.41   1.24   1.07
1994     1.21   0.59   0.80   1.05   1.23   0.46   0.06  -0.79  -1.36  -1.32  -1.96  -1.79
1995    -0.49   0.46   0.75   0.83   1.46   1.27   1.71   0.21   1.16   0.47  -0.28   0.16
1996     0.59   0.75   1.01   1.46   2.18   1.10   0.77  -0.14   0.24  -0.33   0.09  -0.03
1997     0.23   0.28   0.65   1.05   1.83   2.76   2.35   2.79   2.19   1.61   1.12   0.67
1998     0.83   1.56   2.01   1.27   0.70   0.40  -0.04  -0.22  -1.21  -1.39  -0.52  -0.44
1999    -0.32  -0.66  -0.33  -0.41  -0.68  -1.30  -0.66  -0.96  -1.53  -2.23  -2.05  -1.63
2000    -2.00  -0.83   0.29   0.35  -0.05  -0.44  -0.66  -1.19  -1.24  -1.30  -0.53   0.52
2001     0 .60    0.29   0.45  -0.31  -0.30  -0.47  -1.31  -0.77  -1.37  -1.37  -1.26  -0.93
2002   0.27  -0.64  -0.43  -0.32  -0.63  -0.35  -0.31   0.60   0.43   0.42   1.51   2.10 
2003   2.09   1.75   1.51   1.18   0.89   0.68   0.96   0.88   0.01   0.83   0.52   0.33
2004   0.43   0.48   0.61   0.57   0.88   0.04   0.44   0.85   0.75  -0.11  -0.63  -0.17
2005   0.44   0.81   1.36   1.03   1.86   1.17   0.66   0.25  -0.46  -1.32  -1.50   0.20
2006   1.03   0.66   0.05   0.40   0.48   1.04   0.35  -0.65  -0.94  -0.05  -0.22   0.14
2007   0.01   0.04  -0.36   0.16  -0.10   0.09   0.78   0.50  -0.36  -1.45  -1.08  -0.58
2008  -1.00  -0.77  -0.71  -1.52  -1.37  -1.34  -1.67  -1.70  -1.55  -1.76  -1.25  -0.87
2009  -1.40  -1.55  -1.59  -1.65  -0.88  -0.31  -0.53   0.09   0.52   0.27  -0.40   0.08
2010   0.83   0.82   0.44   0.78   0.62  -0.22  -1.05  -1.27  -1.61  -1.06  -0.82  -1.21
2011  -0.92  -0.83  -0.69  -0.42  -0.37  -0.69  -1.86  -1.74  -1.79  -1.34  -2.33  -1.79
2012  -1.38  -0.85  -1.05  -0.27  -1.26  -0.87  -1.52  -1.93  -2.21  -0.79  -0.59  -0.48
2013  -0.13  -0.43  -0.63  -0.16   0.08  -0.78  -1.25  -1.04  -0.48  -0.87  -0.11  -0.41
2014   0.30     

Clearly, in the 1982-1983 and the 1997-1998 Super El Nino events the PDO was positive during the initial stages of the event, and the January 2014 PDO is was plus 0.3 & I imagine in a few days we will see that the PDO for February 2014 is also positive.

It seem possible to me that some of the changes in CO2 reading at the MLO in January & February of 2014 might be related to the positive PDO in that period, possible due to such factors as: (a) changes in upwelling around the Pacific Ocean and along the coast of Chile and Peru in particular due to changes in the winds and currents (Humboldt) there in that time frame; (b) possible changes in plankton and terrestrial plants related to positive PDO changes in precipitation and local temperatures; and (c) positive PDO related changes in atmospheric mixing patterns in January and February 2014.

These are just thoughts.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2014, 05:27:01 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #167 on: March 07, 2014, 05:25:42 PM »
The following links provide some discussion and cautionary words about the El Nino Watch that NOAA just issued (many of the cautionary words are similar to points that deep octopus raised):

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/El-Nino-Watch-May-Be-A-Long-Wait-248943981.html
http://www.sbsun.com/environment-and-nature/20140306/el-nixf1o-watch-issued-by-us-weather-agency


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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #168 on: March 07, 2014, 10:50:03 PM »
I believe that the attached images showing Albany University's March 14 & 15, respectively, forecasts for vorticity and wind speed shows a meaningful amount of westerly wind activity on the Southern side of the equator.
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #169 on: March 08, 2014, 12:40:01 AM »
The following link leads to an older NOAA publication clearly identifying that El Nino events can decrease CO2 emissions from the equatorial Pacific Ocean; however, after reading the article it is not clear whether the information from the article can be used to explain the flat portion of the mlo CO2 curve in January and February 2014:


http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/feel1868/feel1868.shtml


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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #170 on: March 08, 2014, 05:28:14 PM »
The following link leads to (it also leads to an updated image of the figure that I showed in reply #156) the attached image of: Constructed Analogue (CA) -- Time-Longitude OLR Anomalies.  This data is updated to March 7, and the forecast is through March 22 2014.  This reconstruction of the Time-Longitude Outgoing Long-wave Radiation indicates that the MJO is moving slowing eastward; which in my opinion should give it more time to feed energy in to Kelvin wave.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/forca.shtml


The caption for the image is:
"Time-longitude section (7.5N-7.5S) of MJO associated anomalous OLR for the last 180 days and for the next 15 days from the constructed analogue forecast based on RMM1 and RMM2. Blue (yellow/red) shades show negative (positive) OLR anomalies and enhanced (suppressed) convection. Forecasts do not include direct contributions from other climate modes such as ENSO, monsoons, etc. - only the MJO."
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #171 on: March 08, 2014, 06:18:47 PM »
For those who want a longer term EWP-based forecast for the MJO eastward progress across the Pacific, I provide the attached figure from the following link.  To me, this indicates that the period from March 20 to March 30 may be a critical time for any thunderstorms associated with this MJO to possibly disrupt the Walker Circulation Cell (& if this were to happen the probability of a strong El Nino event occurring in 2014 should increase significantly):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjo/chi/ewp.gif
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #172 on: March 08, 2014, 06:32:43 PM »
To me the attached earth wind map focused on the Equatorial Pacific indicates that:

(a) Clearly two Tropical Cyclones are forming of the north coast of Queensland,
(b) A possible Tropical Disturbance is forming near Vanuatu.
(c) Between 5N and 5S the trade winds are almost absent in the Western Pacific all the way up to at least 170W.

Some of these may help the Kelvin wave progress, but none of these conditions would serve to weaken the Kelvin wave.
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #173 on: March 09, 2014, 12:22:13 AM »
ASLR, according to GODAS, you're correct about the Kelvin wave still sitting beneath the surface. Though its "nose" on the easternmost point is ever more closely extending to the surface. It is positioned at about 50 meters beneath the surface at 120 W. So in any event, it is waiting in the wings to surface in the east. Right now, the Kelvin wave is expanding its presence in the central Pacific's surface.



Directing attention to another symptom we've been watching—the oceanic currents and the trade winds—the oceanic equatorial countercurrent is strengthening in the Pacific. Particularly since February has this been the case. I take this to be symptomatic of some positive feedbacks generated by the multiple low pressure systems in recent weeks, as well as the surfacing of warm ocean water near the central Pacific. This surface warming will tend to weaken trade winds, warming waters further, and the cycle renews. The strengthening of the current has a convincing monopoly right now throughout, essentially, the entire Pacific basin. This, to me, is a very serious turn of events favoring El Niño.



You can also see signs of a weakening of currents in the equatorial Indian Ocean, another effect we may wish to watch as the southern hemisphere transitions to autumn and winter. During the austral winter, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events will occur and they behave in ways that can be traced to El Niño, usually happening prior to El Niño. For instance, positive IOD events are observed in 1963, 1972, 1977, 1982, 1994, 1997, and 2006, which all led El Niño events by a few months. This is related to possible Indian Ocean Dipole-ENSO teleconnections.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/IOD/positive/

The easterly motion would portend cooling waters around the western Pacific/eastern Indian Ocean, suggesting a positive IOD event, which is compatible with El Niño. Conversely, negative IOD corresponds with La Niña. A positive IOD event coupled with El Niño would seriously amplify drought in south Asia/Australia, and lead to serious flooding in east Africa. Bureau of Meteorology has no obvious IOD event forecasted in the coming months though it is worth reviewing in the future, should El Niño pan out. I'm less learned about IOD, so I won't go too further on the subject at this point.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2014, 01:25:25 AM by deep octopus »

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #174 on: March 09, 2014, 01:10:42 AM »
The panel of the MJO forecast from ASLR seems to be choking off any negative feedbacks that would disturb the trend. BOM's 30-day SOI chart is also apparently at its lowest point since early 2013. Not yet in El Niño territory, but let's say that the preponderance of evidence otherwise speaks for itself: a.) the presence of a very warm Kelvin wave positioned beneath the surface of the Pacific, b.) the weakening of trade winds and the strengthening of the equatorial countercurrent, c.) the drop in sea level pressure over Tahiti while sea level pressure at Darwin has increased, d.) the decline of upwelling from the Humboldt current, e.) the sharp increase in oceanic heat content and the warm water volume, and f.) the increased convective, low pressure activity over the central Pacific, and the increase in westerly wind bursts, partially the result of a strengthening MJO.

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #175 on: March 09, 2014, 01:18:06 AM »
deep octopus,

Thanks for all of the great information, including that about: (a) the increasing westerly current velocities in the Central/Eastern Pacific and (b) the fact that a positive IOD often precedes an El Nino by a few months.

As I have stated in a few posts, I view the period from the middle to the end of March as a critical time period as to whether a Super El Nino occurs in beginning in early May 2014, or not.  It seems possible to me that if the current strong Kelvin wave does not continue to receive positive reinforcement through the end of March (say from the MJO), then it is possible that it will reflect as a Rossby wave by the end of April (to early May), and if so the next Kelvin wave may not reach the Central Pacific until early Nov. 2014 (for a second chance of a moderate El Nino by the next austral summer, ie: 2014-2015).

The attached image of the past and forecast IOD, shows that the IOD became negative in February 2014 (so a few months from the end of January would be the end of April), so if the IOD is going to have any influence on the current Kelvin wave triggering El Nino conditions, that it seems to me that that transition in state would need to begin by early April and be complete by early May 2014.

I guess we will all need to watch what happens (strong MJO, increasing counter currents, WWB's, positive PDO, decreasing trade winds, etc.) in the next one to two months, as to whether we get a Super in the 2014-2015 period; otherwise, it would seem like we have another good chance of an El Nino by December 2014.

« Last Edit: March 09, 2014, 01:27:41 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #176 on: March 09, 2014, 01:40:14 AM »
Further to my last post that if a Super El Nino is going to occur during 2014-2015, then the Equatorial Pacific would need to transition to an El Nino state by the end of April, I note that the accompanying figure shows that in a typical El Nino state, there is an atmospheric low pressure system over the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, and if you scroll back to the MJO forecast that I posted in reply #171 that is exactly the possible case (ie a low pressure system in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific) by the end of April, due to the departure of the MJO by that time.
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #177 on: March 09, 2014, 02:04:31 AM »
If this attached Albany University forecast for March 16 is correct, then by that date the trade winds will be largely absent east of 160E between 5N & 5S (which might assist more warm water to flow eastward from the Western to the Eastern Pacific).
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #178 on: March 09, 2014, 04:39:08 AM »
I am posting the two attached images related to the impact of the 1997-1998 Super El Nino event on the sea temperature and sea level data collected at the tide-station at Fort Point, San Francisco, and temperature reading taken from the Davenport Mooring in Monterey Bay (see the second image for locations).  The first figure clearly shows the impact (including flooding in February 1998) at San Francisco occurred in a series of Kelvin waves (and associated temperature effects) beginning as early as May 1997.  If our current (2014) pattern continues as we have discussed, we could see a very similar (if not worst) conditions develop from 2014 to 2015.  This figure indicates how a series of Kelvin waves can build up a normal El Nino in May into a Super El Nino by January to February of the following year (roughly speaking)

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1999/fs175-99/
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #179 on: March 09, 2014, 04:52:23 AM »
In my last post I forgot the attached USGS image of the sea level record at Fort Point, San Francisco from before 1900; which shows the past recorded Super El Nino events of 1915-16, 1940-41, 1957-58, 1982-83, and 1997-98.  We will see if 2014-15 joins this string of Super El Nino events.
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #180 on: March 09, 2014, 06:47:24 AM »
ASLR, I thought I would comment on some biological impacts I witnessed in the 82-83 and 97-98 events. I was younger and spent ~ 200 days per year underwater diving commercially around the Channel Islands in Southern Calif. I had about ten years experience diving before the 82 season and with thousands of hours underwater I had a pretty good idea of how much production came off the various reefs . My career had started before the cold water PDO regime switched to a warm water one ~ 76-77. So in 82 huge storms arrived with swells in the 20 ft.+ range. The Queen was visiting Reagan at the time and almost got washed down the creek at Refugio Canyon while trying to cross a flooded creek with Reagan in a jeep.
 The swells ripped up the kelp beds and as spring arrived the normal upwelling that supplies nutrients
failed . The hot water stressed the sea urchin and abalone herbivores I depended upon to make a living and the starfish began to dissolve( like current die off). The normally colorful reefs began to fade as the pink and purple colored crustose coraline began to bleach . Purple urchins began to die and in places the bottom was covered in dead urchin tests. The abalone would hang on to the reef but they had no strength. As the summer wore on the small creatures that didn't have mussel and fat reserves that seemed to get the larger animal though just disappeared. What happened next was a bit of a revelation for me. I call it " the wildfire effect " for lack of a better analogy. The normally verdant reefs were now white and bleached out but the urchins and abalone began an enormous spawn. Mid December 83 the water temperature dropped dramatically and there appeared enormous numbers of very small urchins and abalone under the sea urchins. I have a theory that all the micro-predators that normally feast on such spawn events had perished during the long hot summer. The recruitment event was very successful and as result the abalone and urchin businesses were very good about five years later as the animals grew to legally harvestable sizes.
 The 97-98 event followed a similar trajectory but with it arrived an abalone disease called withering foot syndrome. The disease didn't go away at the end of the El Nino like the starfish disease or the heat stressed urchin dieoffs of 82-83. It spread and eventually reduced 8 different species of abalone by over 90%. The fishery closed after that. The disease is still spreading north after twenty five years.
Sardines that were almost absent when I started diving in 73 became abundant but that is largely due to the warm water PDO 1977-2000.  I don't know what surprises the next bid El Nino will bring but
after 40 years diving I won't be getting near the dive time in that I used to. I don't look forward to it's return but " the wildfire effect" shows broadcast spawners can take advantage of the carnage these things inflict.   
     

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #181 on: March 09, 2014, 11:44:07 AM »
Bruce,

I used to do sport SCUBA diving in Southern California in 1973 (before I went to college), and I found your first hand account of the biological effects of Super El Nino's gripping, and I feel bad about the withering foot syndrome's effect on the abalone.  Nevertheless, these ENSO cycles have been going on for a long time and many creatures have adapted to the cycles, but with a superimposed global warming trend (and increasing pollution concentrations), I am concerned that we will hear more stories like the withering foot syndrome & the current starfish die-off.

While it is still not certain that a Super will occur (or any El Nino) in 2014-15; the attached figure and associated selected forecast extract indicate the high probability of a tropical cyclone near 15S and 168E within the next day:

Cyclocane forecast extract: "THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S
169.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 167.7E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE BUILDING OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
STARTED TO FORM IN THE PERIPHERIES. A 090634Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS IMPROVING STRUCTURE AS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
BECOME APPARENT IN THE CDO FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
REGION ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.
SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 090900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING
STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH."

A tropical storm near 15S and 168E will clearly provide a boost to the current Kelvin wave, which will increase the probability of a 2014-15 Super.

Best,
ASLR
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #182 on: March 09, 2014, 06:06:27 PM »
While most of the information presented in the linked Economist article about the hiatus is not new, I would like to emphasize the following quotes:

http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21598610-slowdown-rising-temperatures-over-past-15-years-goes-being

Quotes from the Economist:
"But that is not the end of it. Laid on top of these cyclical patterns is what looks like a one-off increase in the strength of trade winds during the past 20 years. According to a study in Nature Climate Change, by Matthew England of the University of New South Wales and others, record trade winds have produced a sort of super-Niña. On average, sea levels have risen by about 3mm a year in the past 30 years. But those in the eastern Pacific have barely budged, whereas those near the Philippines have risen by 20cm since the late 1990s. A wall of warm water, in other words, is being held in place by powerful winds, with cool water rising behind it. According to Dr England, the effect of the trade winds explains most of the temperature pause.
….. Gravity wants the western-Pacific water wall to slosh back; it is held in place only by exceptionally strong trade winds. If those winds slacken, temperatures will start to rise again."

These quotes emphasize that the two decades-long unusually strong Pacific trade winds have built-up an almost 20cm gravitational potential energy head to drive a possible Super El Nino, now that the trade wind strength has diminished.  Also, we should remember that the Super La Nina from 2010-2011 (see: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-362 ) drove large quantities of heat into the Tropical Pacific Ocean that could be driving ocean gradients to try to release some of this stored potential energy.

Furthermore, the following link to a research paper by Fang et al 2014, indicates that the frequency of the PDO oscillation is increasing due to global warming, which makes it more likely that we are now entering a positive PDO cycle phase.


http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00376-013-2260-7#page-1

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #183 on: March 09, 2014, 06:37:29 PM »
The linked reference (with a free access pdf), which focuses on the biological impact of Equatorial Kelvin waves on the Peruvian and Chilean coastal areas:

Vincent Echevin, Aurélie Albert, Marina Lévy, Michelle Graco, Olivier Aumont, Alice Piétri,
Gilles Garric, (2014), "Intraseasonal variability of nearshore productivity in the Northern Humboldt Current System: the role of coastal trapped waves",
Continental Shelf Research, February 2014, Volume 73, Pages 14–30; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2013.11.015


http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00166/27692/25885.pdf

However, this paper also illustrates how Equatorial Kelvin waves (EKW) transition into poleward-propagating coastal trapped waves (CTW) that can propagate both northward and southward (see attached image and following quote).  The CTW is another form of Kelvin wave such as the ones measured during the 1997-98 Super El Nino event at Fort Point and the Davenport Mooring, in California (see reply #178):

This paper contains the following quote: "A specific feature of this system in comparison with other Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) is its relative proximity to the equatorial Pacific ocean which makes it particularly sensitive to oceanic perturbations of equatorial origin. These perturbations are characterized by the eastward propagation of energetic intraseasonal Equatorial Kelvin waves (IEKW) across the tropical ocean, forced by westerly wind bursts in the western Pacific (Kessler and McPhaden, 1995, Cravatte et al., 2003). Upon reaching the coasts of Ecuador and Peru, IEKW generate poleward-propagating coastal trapped waves (hereafter CTW) (Clarke, 1983, Belmadani et al., 2012) which, in turn, may force westward-propagating Rossby waves in frequency-dependent latitude ranges (Clarke and Shi, 1991). Such Rossby waves modulate the width of the nearshore chlorophyll-rich band as the associated currents and eddies transport phytoplankton-rich coastal waters offshore (Bonhomme et al., 2007)."
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #184 on: March 09, 2014, 08:03:01 PM »
In my last post, I pointed out that there is more than one type of oceanic Kelvin wave [e.g. an equatorial Kelvin wave (EKW) or a poleward –propagating coastal trapped Kelvin wave (CTW, eg those traveling north past California and those traveling south past Chile), while the linked reference discusses still other types of oceanic Kelvin waves]; therefore, I thought that I should provide a link to an article about Kelvin waves, which contains for the attached image related to how a CTW works, and the following quotes about how a Kelvin wave uses the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographical boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator, to act as a non-dispersive wave:

http://lifesun.info/tag/kelvin-wave/

"A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth’s Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape in the alongshore direction over time."

"Coriolis parameter with latitude. This equatorial Beta plane assumption requires a geostrophic balance between the eastward velocity and the north-south pressure gradient. The phase speed is identical to that of coastal Kelvin waves, indicating that the equatorial Kelvin waves propagate toward the east without dispersion. For the 1st baroclinic mode in the ocean, a typical phase speed would be about 2.8 m/s, causing an equatorial Kelvin wave to take 2 months to cross the Pacific Ocean between New Guinea and South America; for higher ocean and atmospheric modes, the phase speeds are comparable to fluid flow speeds.
When the motion at the equator is to the east, any deviation toward the north is brought back toward the equator because the Coriolis force acts to the right of the direction of motion in the Northern Hemisphere, and any deviation to the south is brought back toward the equator because the Coriolis force acts to the left of the direction of motion in the Southern Hemisphere. Note that for motion toward the west, the Coriolis force would not restore a northward or southward deviation back toward the equator; thus, equatorial Kelvin waves are only possible for eastward motion. Both atmospheric and oceanic equatorial Kelvin waves play an important role in the dynamics of El Nino-Southern Oscillation, by transmitting changes in conditions in the Western Pacific to the Eastern Pacific.
There have been studies that connect equatorial Kelvin waves to coastal Kelvin waves. Moore found that as an equatorial Kelvin wave strikes an “eastern boundary,” part of the energy is reflected in the form of planetary and gravity waves; and the remainder of the energy is carried poleward along the eastern boundary as coastal Kelvin waves. This process indicates that some energy may be lost from the equatorial region and transported to the poleward region.
Equatorial Kelvin waves are often associated with anomalies in surface wind stress. For example, positive anomalies in wind stress in the central Pacific excite positive anomalies in 20xC isotherm depth which propagate to the east as equatorial Kelvin waves."

Also, note that as the leading edge of the current strong equatorial Kelvin wave (EKW) is already just over halfway across the Pacific Ocean, this leading edge should interface with the Peruvian coast starting in early April, so by that time either the newly created Rossby waves and coastal trapped (Kelvin) waves will either serve to dissipate the EKM energy, or if the current EKM is strong enough the newly created Rossby waves and CTW's will help to transition the Equatorial Pacific into an El Nino state.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2014, 08:14:13 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #185 on: March 10, 2014, 11:08:48 AM »
The first attached image shows that there are now three tropical cyclones in the South Pacific area as reported below by Cyclocane:

"SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 100600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.9S 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPS33 PGTW 100900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 100000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5S 141.6E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS32 PGTW 100300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) AT 100600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.9S 166.6E, APPROXIMATELY 433 NM NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS31 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS."

The second attached image from earth wind map for March 10 2014 shows: (a) TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) is contributing a WWB to the equatorial tropical; and (b) the trade winds between 5N & 5S are continuing to decrease.

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #186 on: March 10, 2014, 11:17:39 AM »
Attached are two updated images related to the MJO status updated on March 8 2014.  These images show that the MJO is still strong and should provide reinforcement to the Equatorial Kelvin wave, EKW:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #187 on: March 10, 2014, 02:42:26 PM »
The attached AlbanyU image of the vorticity and wind forecast for March 17 2014, shows the projected continued strong westerlies in the Western Equatorial Pacific.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Bruce Steele

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #188 on: March 10, 2014, 04:13:11 PM »
ASLR, Kelvin waves  move across the Pacific then divide and move poleward once they hit the South American continent as described in your post # 184. When viewed in the computer simulation I linked Feb. 23 #66 they have the potential to move back westward as they contact Alaska or potentially the Antarctic Continent. I can see where this is a actually very feasible for the northward moving waves but could you perhaps speculate on their fate once they encounter the Antarctic circumpolar current?
Any heat they carry once they get that far south would likely get entrained into the ACC and dissipate but I would like to hear your thoughts.
Here is a link to the computer animation re. Kelvin Waves.

 http://oxbow.sr.unh.edu/WaveMovies/
« Last Edit: March 10, 2014, 08:55:19 PM by Bruce Steele »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #189 on: March 10, 2014, 10:11:29 PM »
Bruce,

If you will look at my reply #133, you will see that some researchers believe that when the southward directed Kelvin wave encounters the Southern Ocean, it then creates the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave, ACW (you can Google it), that travels slowly around Antarctica; however, this theory has not been proven (but I believe it is still debated).  I believe that the other option is that the heat from the Kelvin wave disperses slowly throughout the Southern Ocean (primarily into the ACC).

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #190 on: March 10, 2014, 11:54:17 PM »
Normally, wili makes a post about the fact that NOAA's weekly ENSO forecast is out and can be downloaded at:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

For me the most telling information in the report is the attached image of the weekly SST departures for the last four weeks; which shows that as of March 5, 2014 the entire equatorial Pacific is warming; which supports recent posts citing that the Eastern Equatorial Pacific is warming steadily.  Other than that there are few meaning changing in the ENSO forecast, other than the fact that the Kelvin wave (EKW) is still strong and is proceeding eastward.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #191 on: March 11, 2014, 12:19:08 AM »
As no one has posted an image of the progression of Kelvin waves (EKWs) across the Pacific in a while, I thought that I could post the attached image from the March 10 2014 NOAA update; and I would like to note that if this pattern of Kelvin waves continues, and also if the current strong EKW establishes El Nino conditions in early May 2014, then the next EKW should reach the western coast of South America around the beginning of September 2014 (thus strengthening the El Nino condition) and a third EKW could reach the Peruvian coast about the beginning of January 2015 (assuming about a 4 month interval between EKWs); which would normally correspond to the peak of the Super El Nino.  See reply #178 for comparable timing for the 1997-98 Super El Nino.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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CraigsIsland

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #192 on: March 11, 2014, 12:31:55 AM »
So what would the scanario of a "gradual" ramp up of a El Niño start to affect California? Around July? Heavy rains is what I'm expecting from a unusual season in California. It'd be nice to inform people around what stage of El Niño actually could (or measurably) affect them

JimD

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #193 on: March 11, 2014, 02:52:12 AM »
I'm pretty sure that El Nino or not California cannot expect any significant rains (excepting what they get from the rest of this winter) until the monsoons arrive in the summer or fall as the case may be depending on where in CA you live.  During the dry season there will just not be hardly any rain no matter what.

During the 1998 super El Nino Sacramento only got 1" of rain from 1 June to 1 Nov for instance.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #194 on: March 11, 2014, 03:20:16 AM »
CraigsIsland,

First, I am not making a weather forecast; and second, I have repeatedly said that a Super El Nino in 2014-15 is not a sure thing (in my opinion the biggest current uncertainty is the behavior of the MJO over the next two to three weeks).

However, I do believe that the chances of a Super El Nino in 2014-15 beginning this late Spring is better than 50-50.  However, some of this matter depends on definitions.  In 1997 the Nino3.4 went above 0.5 degrees C the week of April 23rd, but NOAA did not provisionally recognize an El Nino event until May; while formally an El Nino event is not recognized until the ENSO index has been above 0.5 degrees C for 5 continuous months.  That said, I guess that in 2014 (if we get a Super this year) the coastal trapped wave (Kelvin wave) will start North around April 30th and will reach SF around June 1 (or so), but then the strength of this El Nino will likely ramp-up gradually (due to two more incoming EKWs space apart by 3 to 5 months) to Super status sometime between late Nov. 2013 and early Feb 2014; so that in the winter of 2014-15 there may likely be extensive flooding in California (so CA will likely go from not enough water now to too much water then).

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

CraigsIsland

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #195 on: March 11, 2014, 05:37:50 AM »
Thank you both for the great responses!

Thaat's what I had in mind and will keep watching with the rest of you

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #196 on: March 11, 2014, 05:58:57 AM »
It is late and won't go through the trouble with putting up graphics now, but some research I did on NOAA's ESRL Reanalysis tools yields possible positive correlations between Niño 3.4 and increases in precipitation throughout the continental US during the northern hemispheric warm season (May through October) in years of developing El Niños.

Using analogous, monthly data from super El Niños developing in 1957, 1972, 1982, and 1997 show minor increases in precipitation rates during the warm season of those respective years around California. Should El Niño conditions build by summer, some improvement to drought is possible. However, it's important to note that these positive anomalies are of course compared to those seasonal normalities. Thus, a normally dry summer perhaps becomes slightly less dry. Jim has said as much.

Cheers.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #197 on: March 11, 2014, 02:00:32 PM »
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, BoM, issued the follow statement on March 11 2014.  Besides being as reserved as the NOAA statement yesterday, it does note that: (a) the recent WWB were the strongest since 2009; (b) the tropical Pacific sub-surface is warming rapidly (due to the Kelvin wave) which should result in the tropical Pacific surface warming soon (in a month or so), which could facilitate El Nino conditions; and (c) the chances of a positive IOD event elevate during El Nino; which I take to indicate that if an El Nino starts at the end of April 2014, a positive IOD event should contribute to one of two more Kelvin waves following our current EKW, which could boost an April El Nino into a Super status by the coming austral summer.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

"The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral – neither El Niño nor La Niña. However, international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that warming of the tropical Pacific is likely in the coming months, with most models showing temperatures approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds during the austral winter.
Recent observations indicate that warming of the tropical Pacific is occurring. The tropical Pacific Ocean sub-surface has warmed substantially over the past few weeks, which is likely to result in a warming of the sea surface in the coming months. A recent burst of westerly winds over the far western Pacific is the strongest seen since at least 2009 – the last time an El Niño developed.
El Niño is often, but not always, associated with below-average rainfall during the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia. Daytime temperatures also tend to be above average over southern Australia.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is typically too weak to have a significant influence on the Australian climate from December to April. Current model outlooks indicate a neutral IOD through late autumn and early winter. However, the chance of a positive IOD event is elevated during El Niño."

The first attached image from Cyclocane 48-hr Tropical Storm forecast issued on March 11 2014, shows that both tropical cyclones HADI and LUSI will contribute to WWBs in the Western Tropical Pacific over the next couple of days, and that there might be a couple of more tropical storms forming in one to three days (?), with one north of the equator and one to the south.  The second attached image from earth wind map for the morning of March 11 2014, supports the Cyclocane forecast, which indicates that the current EKW is receiving reinforcement from the Western Tropical Pacific.

Also, CraigsIsland,
(1) If you don't want to wait for deep octopus's more accurate information, the images that I posted in reply #68 confirms that the precipitation trend in California is not changed much by a summer El Nino event; and (2) the June 1 date that I gave for the arrival of the Kelvin wave in SF is for the crest of the wave (while the leading edge of the Kelvin wave should arrive in May).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #198 on: March 11, 2014, 02:17:28 PM »
If the attached MJO forecast for March 10 to 24 (from yesterday) holds, then the MJO should be re-entering the Western Tropical Pacific between March 17 and 24; which should give the Kelvin wave (EKW) a good positive reinforcement kick just when it needs strength to switch the Pacific system into an El Nino condition.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #199 on: March 11, 2014, 11:48:39 PM »
The two attached images of Albany University forecasts for vorticity and wind for March 18 and 19, 2014, respectively; both show a significant Tropical Cyclone forming around 170W and 15S; which if it occurs should give a significant kick of positive reinforcement to the Kelvin wave (EKW), at nearly the same time as the MJO is forecast to strengthen the EKW.  Things should very interesting between March 19 and the end of that month.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson