2014 El Nino?

[wili]

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/08/is-el-nino-finding-its-second-wind/

Is El Niño finding its second wind?

(Apologies if this was already posted.)

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued by the BoM today, the 30-day moving average for the SOI has drifted down to -12.1:

20140801,20140830,-12.1

edit: Here is the plot

[bigB]

The attached video is for those who would like to view the latest ENSO/MJO update/forecast video from STORMSURF.COM, by MARK SPONSLER, updated August 31, 2014. Skip to 10:22 to view ENSO/MJO update/forecast.

[AbruptSLR]

First, according to the following NOAA Nino Indices data, for the week centered on August 27 2014, the Nino 3.4 index has increased up to +0.4 degrees C (which, during an upswing period, has not been seen since the week centered on June 11 2014):

                     Nino1+2       Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 11JUN2014     24.6 1.6     27.3 0.8     28.1 0.4     29.5 0.6
 18JUN2014     24.8 2.1     27.4 1.0     28.1 0.5     29.4 0.5
 25JUN2014     24.0 1.6     27.2 1.0     28.0 0.5     29.3 0.5
 02JUL2014     23.6 1.4     27.0 1.0     27.8 0.4     29.1 0.3
 09JUL2014     23.0 1.1     26.5 0.6     27.6 0.3     29.1 0.3
 16JUL2014     23.1 1.5     26.2 0.6     27.4 0.2     29.1 0.4
 23JUL2014     22.9 1.6     26.0 0.5     27.1-0.1     28.9 0.2
 30JUL2014     21.8 0.6     25.5 0.2     26.9-0.1     29.0 0.3
 06AUG2014    22.2 1.2     25.6 0.4     27.0 0.0     29.2 0.5
 13AUG2014    21.9 1.2     25.5 0.5     26.9 0.0     29.0 0.4
 20AUG2014    22.1 1.4     25.5 0.5     27.1 0.3     29.1 0.4
 27AUG2014    21.3 0.8     25.4 0.4     27.2 0.4     29.2 0.5

Second, according to the first attached NOAA image of the Subsurface Equatorial Pacific subsurface temperatures and temperature anomalies for August 26 2014, the current EKW is continuing to gain strength, and to increase the equatorial surface temperature anomalies.

Third, the second attached images shows that the Equatorial Pacific Upper-Ocean Heat Anomalies (circa Sept 1, 2014) continue to increase steadily.

[bigB]

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of September 1st, the daily SOI value was up to -4.81, the 30 day avg was down to -11.17, and the 90 day avg was down to -5.86. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies. Interesting to see almost every single value on the attached SOI chart is negative except a few values for the 90 day avg. Not something you see often. However, according to the latest runs by GFS models for SLP and precipitation, we may POSSIBLY see a slightly less favorable SLP pattern for the next few days(not really completely unfavorable just slightly less favorable). We may even see a few weak positive daily SOI values, but at this time it doesn’t appear that they will be strong, if they were to occur. Unfortunately, this would coincide with a cluster of strong negative daily SOI values leaving the 30 day time period, which would help facilitate a noticeable rise in the 30 day avg SOI values. Again, if it even occurs. The GOOD news is that by about Saturday or Sunday, a very favorable pattern is forecast to kick right back in and if that were to occur, the 30 day avg SOI values would quickly begin falling again. Also, as previously mentioned by ASLR, we may soon see a very weak active phase of the MJO enter the Western Pacific(the current area of suppressed convection is rapidly weakening and finally moving east out of the Western Pacific, even a neutral phase would help), which would increase chances of tropical and westerly wind activity in that region. In fact, some long range models are already hinting a TC activity within the next 1-2 weeks, but nothing of much interest just yet. The cool SSTA seen in the Nino 1+2 region appear to be the tail end of the cool upwelling Kelvin wave being squeezed to the surface by the much larger approaching warm downwelling Kelvin wave cycle. There's very little cool water left on the subsurface and thus, its appears to be of no real threat. This can easily be seen in the images provided by ASLR. I suspect that our latest warm downwelling Kelvin wave is only about 3-4 weeks away from beginning its surfacing process and due to the warm SSTA that already exist, this Kelvin wave does not have to be as strong as the last massive kelvin wave to warm SST's above the El Nino thresh hold(at or above +0.5 deg c in the Nino 3.4 region). It appears we are on track for at least a weak El Nino at the moment.

[AbruptSLR]

Per both the BoM data and the attached plot, the 30-day moving average SOI index remained constant at -12.1:

20140802,20140831,-12.1

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached BoM plots for the week ending August 31, 2014: (a) the Nino 3.4 increased to +0.38, while, (b) the IOD remained constant at +0.51.  This indicates a neutral condition for the ENSO, with an increasing possibility of a weak to moderate El Nino developing this year:

[AbruptSLR]

The attached Nino 1, 2, 3, and 4 indices plots, respectively, were issued by the BoM for the week ending August 31 2014, and they support the general case that a new/current EKW is strengthening while it moves eastward:

[AbruptSLR]

According to the attached ECMM - MJO forecast plot, the active phase of the MJO reached the Maritime Continent yesterday, but is forecast to weaken significantly as it moves eastward.  If this forecast is correct, the MJO, during this phase of its oscillation, should have little influence on a potential El Nino:

[Lord M Vader]

BigB, ASLR, Deep Octopus, Neven & Co: here is something that should be considered as really ominous both for the sea ice in Arctic & the rest of the world. Recent long term forecast from NOAA hints of an upward trend for the Niño index 1-3 and a stall of Niño 4 by spring 2015. If the atmosphere will be teleconnected to the ocean at that time there should be a decent chance for a BIG El Niño by the end of 2015.

If this scenario come true we should definitely see a record warm 2015 and an even warmer 2016 unless there are some wild cards like big eruptions from volcanoes. That should do some huge damage to the Arctic sea ice if also the weather conditions are right.

My personal thought is that the world is on the verge to see a rapid warming up. The oceans can't absorb all this extra heat for ever. Sooner or later it all comes back to haunt us. We've also put the world into a new territory and it seems to me that the Pacific needs more time to redirect all this heat in the western part to the eastern part than what would have been the case for about 20 years ago.

[TheWeatherMan]

BigB, ASLR, Deep Octopus, Neven & Co: here is something that should be considered as really ominous both for the sea ice in Arctic & the rest of the world. Recent long term forecast from NOAA hints of an upward trend for the Niño index 1-3 and a stall of Niño 4 by spring 2015. If the atmosphere will be teleconnected to the ocean at that time there should be a decent chance for a BIG El Niño by the end of 2015.

If this scenario come true we should definitely see a record warm 2015 and an even warmer 2016 unless there are some wild cards like big eruptions from volcanoes. That should do some huge damage to the Arctic sea ice if also the weather conditions are right.

My personal thought is that the world is on the verge to see a rapid warming up. The oceans can't absorb all this extra heat for ever. Sooner or later it all comes back to haunt us. We've also put the world into a new territory and it seems to me that the Pacific needs more time to redirect all this heat in the western part to the eastern part than what would have been the case for about 20 years ago.

I think you may be on to something.  I've been tracking the potential "barreled" Nino potential this fall and it could be a real possibility.  Given the anomalies in the NPAC have shifted east, I think the decadal trade wind strength could potentially weaken after the current Nino fires up.  This could lead to a a new EKW next spring (similar to the one earlier this year) that would actually have atmospheric support.    If anything, a 2003-2005 scenario might be possible (if not a larger nino), with 15+ months of ENSO positive indices.  Either way, global temperatures will take a major step up.

[deep octopus]

LMV,

We are genuinely entering an unknown realm, and our follies in delaying an effective response to rising greenhouse gas emissions up to this point is going to result in some frightening consequences. Particularly with the prospect of the PDO flipping positive, our urgency grows. We need concrete action, immediately. I cannot say with any degree of certainty how bad a relapse into El Niño for 2015/2016 would look, other than that, yes, three consecutive years of record breaking surface temperatures would be a fairly predictable outcome (2014 so far tracking to be the first of the set, as more and more data comes in). With that could mean more severe wildfires on land, which would amplify deposits of soot in the far north, or would at least temporarily speed up the rise of atmospheric CO₂. Though there is certainly no guarantee of it playing out precisely that way either, and a sudden cool Kelvin wave could disrupt things abruptly. It behooves us not to play with fate, but I hold slight fears that things are going to turn in a bad direction (relative to the current position and pace of things) soon.

[bigB]

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of September 2nd, the daily SOI value was up slightly to -4.51, the 30 day avg was up slightly to -10.73, and the 90 day avg was down to -5.91. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies.

[AbruptSLR]

According to the attached plot issued today (Sept 3 2014, Sydney time) by the BoM of the 30-day moving average SOI, today's value has moved up to -11.5:

[Lennart van der Linde]

El Nino chances seem to be rising again:
http://www.nature.com/news/stalled-el-ni%C3%B1o-poised-to-resurge-1.15814?utm_content=buffera96b1&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

"Anthony Barnston, a seasonal climate forecaster at Columbia University in New York City, says the latest data show that winds from the west are again forming — a second chance for a full-blown El Niño. His team estimates that there is a 75% chance that a weak to moderate event will form by the end of this year, just a bit later than researchers had thought. The predictions are in line with those from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which puts the chance of a weak to moderate El Niño at 65%."

[bigB]

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of September 3nd, the daily SOI value was down slightly to -13.90, the 30 day avg was up slightly to -10.31, and the 90 day avg was down to -6.08. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies. The SLP pattern at Darwin and Tahiti that has been favoring negative SOI values as of late, appears to be holding up better than what the models had previously been suggesting. The 30 day avg is still likely to rise a bit more for the next day or two before stabilizing. Then by Sep 7 or 8, models are calling for a very favorable pattern to kick in as low pressure passes south of Tahiti. I guess we'll have to watch and see. OF NOTE: Two areas of invest, 90W and 91W, are currently spinning in the far Western Pacific. At this time it doesn’t appear that they will be of much help to us. 91W is actually in a halfway decent location(12N, 133E) to help facilitate westerly wind, but is currently much too weak to do so. Then of course you got Norbert, currently spinning off Baja, which looks to me(based on recent data of storm structure and the relatively favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions that lie ahead) like it could become our next MAJOR hurricane in the Eastern pacific. Norbert could be a threat to parts of southern/central Baja as Norbert is forecast to track just off shore.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued by the BoM on Sept 4 2014 (Sydney time), the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -11.1.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm also firming up on the opinion that we are on the verge of seeing a sudden leap in atmospheric warming as the 'hiatus years' come to an end.

We are told that the augmented trades are a response to a temperature imbalance between the tropical Pacific and Atlantic but that 'parity' between the basins appears to be close. Every time a warm surge heads east from the pacific warm pool this must lessen the difference further to the point that one surge will drive the basins into parity ,or even make the pacific the warmer basin further upsetting the workings of the walker cell driving the enhanced trades?

Will we see this current 'fledgling' Nino limp through into next year? Will we again see a large WWB in late winter early spring next year? Is this what the models are beginning to hint at?

If so I would again look at a large , long lasting, Nino that will signal a 'switch' back to positive the major naturals that have fueled the 'Hiatus' whilst in their negative phase? The PDO has been trending positive whilst this last move toward Nino has been ongoing and this may be signalling the switch to ocean surface phase ( warming) of the IPO.

This time around any 'warming' will also have the impacts of a low ice Arctic adding into things so I would expect even faster warming than we saw in the 80's/90's?

It may be that we will see a Nino 'spike' in global temps but then the 'switch' of the natural , back into augmenting warming, will mean that global temps do not fall back from that Nino high in global temps?

If this occurs then we will see Arctic ice drop further ( ice free?) and a resumption in the Antarctic Sea ice losses we saw from the 50's through 80's? We will , in effect, see a 'climate Flip' into the next 'semi stable' state for global temps. This , in its turn, will impact both the submerged and terrestrial Permafrost's further possibly impacting Global GHG levels adversely?

[bigB]

The first Attachment is of the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of September 4th, the daily SOI value was up slightly to -6.65, the 30 day avg was up slightly to -9.68, and the 90 day avg was down to -6.22. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies.

The second attached image shows that as of August 31, sea level height anomalies along the Central and western edge of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific have increased, while anomalies off south America  have decreased. This suggests that our latest downwelling Kelvin wave has continued to increased in strength, while the upwelling phase has continued to decreased in strength and is almost gone. 

The third attached image shows that as of August 31, subsurface temp anomalies have also increased with a very very small pocket of anomalies possibly up to +4 deg c. This is somewhat modeled data, but given the increase in SL height anomalies it seems relatively believable. The higher the SL height anomalies the warmer the subsurface water temps. SL height anomalies are obtained through Jason 2 satellite data which has fairly good aerial coverage. 

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued by the BoM on September 5 2014 the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -11.2.

[JayW]

  I haven't posted in a bit, but rest assured I have been following along.  I stretched myself thin this summer between taking on too many jobs and my wedding that's about a month away. Time sure is a precious commodity.

  As the latest Kelvin wave has been propagating east, the equatorial counter current appears to be beating back the south equatorial current (feel free to correct me if I am in error with the current names).


http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/PACIFIC.html

  The strongest positive current anomalies (heading east) look like the are riding the noise of the EKW.  However, negative anomalies lie in it's wake.  The massive, potent EKW from earlier the year taught me that without atmospheric reinforcement, warm water pools back in Niño region 4, disrupting the temperature gradient necessary for the atmosphere to couple.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/

  So, as encouraging as the current EKW for a potential El Niño,  I'm looking for westerly winds in the west Pacific, which are present, but not wicked impressive.  If I'm not mistaken, this could blunt, or altogether prevent a subsequent upwelling phase and finally couple the ocean and atmosphere, IF they are strong enough to generate another EKW.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml


 

[bigB]

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of September 5th, the daily SOI value was up slightly to 0.36, the 30 day avg was up slightly to -9.06, and the 90 day avg was down to -6.28. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies. According GFS models for SLP and Precipitation, we should see weak negative to near neutral daily SOI values for the next few days. Then by the Sep 8, as low pressure begins to pass south of Tahiti, we should see weak-moderate negative daily SOI values. As of today, we've finally moved through the cluster of strong negative daily SOI values leaving the 30 day time period. Therefore, even if we get weak positive daily SOI values for the next few days it shouldn’t hurt us too much. We'll see. As far as enhanced convection, suppressed convection, and the MJO goes, the Dynamical MJO forecast, suggests weak enhanced convection is currently over the Maritime Continent/Western Pacific, but is to fade over the next week, giving way to suppressed convection. It also suggests that a tiny area of enhanced convection is to pop up over the far Eastern Pacific(likely due to tropical activity in that region). The Statistical MJO forecast, suggests enhanced convection is hold over the Maritime Continent/Western Pacific for the next 2 weeks, while a small area of suppressed convection holds over the far Eastern Pacific. Then the EWP upper level model, suggests weak-moderate enhanced convection is currently over the Maritime Continent/far Western Pacific and is to slowly push east over the next few weeks while fading. Its hard to say which scenario will play out in the long run just yet, but all seem to agree that some sort of weak enhanced convection is currently over the Maritime Continent/Western Pacific.

[AbruptSLR]

I concur that for an El Nino to occur this year conditions need to improve considerably from their current state, as partially illustrated by the attached ECMM - MJO forecast; which indicates the possibility of improvement, but little support for an El Nino as currently forecast:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued by the BoM today the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -10.0:

20140806,20140904,-10.0

[bigB]

CAT 2 Hurricane Norbert, along with the remnants of TS Dolly, are expected to bring heavy tropical moisture up to the southwestern U.S. According to the NWS office based out of San Diego CA, hurricane Norbert is looking likely to be the first TC to bring significant amounts of tropical rainfall to So Cal since hurricane Nora of 1997, which also happened in September. Interesting fact, hurricane Marie also produced the largest tropical swell/surf seen in So Cal since hurricane Linda of 1997. Just another weird similarity between 1997 and 2014. While the similarities between El Ninos(if 2014 even sees an El Nino) stopped a while ago, other similar oceanic and atmospheric events continue to occur and around a very similar time-frame.

[jbatteen]

Moisture from Norbert has been trickling into SE AZ for the last 2 days or so.  Set off some spectacular thunderstorms in Tucson on Thursday.  The monsoon has been particularly active this season and the vegetation is lush.  It's the greenest I've ever seen it here.  There is grass going to seed!  If El Nino brings enhanced winter precipitation, it will bring much needed relief from the long-term drought.  It may be the greenest we see the desert for some time.  I watch this thread daily with great interest.  Thanks for all the info.

[AbruptSLR]

The following data issued by the BoM today indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has increased to -9.5:

20140807,20140905,-9.5

edit: Here is the plot:

[JayW]

Decent fetch of westerly winds, not overly strong but they do extend from about 155°E to 175°E.  I feel like this is the furthest east that westerly winds have occurred for some time.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-172.65,0.53,891

[AbruptSLR]

The first attached image shows that Pacific SSTA map for September 4 2014, which shows an ocean condition that could either strengthen, or weaken, over the next several weeks, depending on the atmospheric contribution.

The second attached image of the Equatorial Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Anomalies issued by NOAA circa Sept 7 2014, indicates that the current EKW may be peaking, unless that atmosphere starts to make a contribution to support El Nino conditions.

My general impression of the atmospheric forecasts indicate that the ocean and the atmosphere could not come into any kind of synergy before the beginning of October; but as with all weather forecasts, we will need to wait and see.

[JayW]

  I agree that we seem to be at bit of a precipice, the next few weeks will hopefully bring more clarity.


  bigB normally posts the long paddock preliminary SOI, the daily number was less than yesterday, but only slightly negative.  The 30 and 90 day averages were basically unchanged.  (First attachment)  http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/


  Second attachment is the last 90 day global wind oscillation (GWO), a ~30-60 day cycle, has spent a majority of boreal summer relatively weak, and in the low AAM (atmospheric angular momentum) phases.  It has a similar phase diagram as the MJO, but I believe it only moves counter-clockwise.  Low AAM is associated with easterly components being added to the atmosphere and can indicate La Niña-ish conditions.  Whereas high AAM is associated with westerly components added and can indicate El Niño-ish conditions. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/gsdm.composites.shtml

[bigB]

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of September 7th, the daily SOI value was down to -2.14, the 30 day avg was up slightly to -8.66, and the 90 day avg was up slightly to -5.86. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies. According to GFS models for SLP and precipitation, a much more favorable pattern is expected kick back in tomorrow, with a difference  in SLP between Darwin and Tahiti that could result in moderate negative daily SOI values. We'll have to see what happens as low pressure passes south of Tahiti during the next few days. Also something that bears watching, neutral-weak westerly wind anomalies are forecast to return to much of the Equatorial Pacific with multiple TC's forecast to pop up during this time. It doesn’t look like anything special at this time, but its certainly an improvement from what we've been seeing as of late(See second attachment from UAlbany courtesy Carl Shreck).

EDIT: Just saw your post JayW. I didn't get around to posting the SOI values from the Long Paddock yesterday as i was surfing all day.

[JayW]

no worries bigB, didn't mean to call you a slacker  , as a ski snob who only skis during storm that are progged to drop greater than 10 inches of snow, I can appreciate taking advantage of good conditions when they reveal themselves.

I really posted it in an attempt to illustrate how the atmosphere send to be half-assing it's part of the bargain.

Klaus Wolter has updated the MEI page.

The basics

The updated (July-August) MEI has increased slightly to +0.86. Its current ranking has moved up to the 12th highest value for this time of year, in weak-to-moderate El Niño territory. The long anticipated emergence of El Niño conditions in 2014 is still under way, despite the lack of signal in Niño 3.4 (see below), leading to the next question of how big it will get. Of the 12 nearest-ranked July-August values, eight had come up by at least nine ranks over the previous four months (2014 has come by 19 ranks). In turn, six of these eight cases (1957, '86, '91, '02, '06, and '09) kept El Niño conditions going into the next calendar year, while the 1951 event ended prematurely by November, and 2004 struggled through the remainder of 2004. Three of these events unambiguously reached strong levels for several months: 1957-58, 1986-87, and 1991-92. So, a strong event is still possible (perhaps better than 1 in 3 odds), but is not the most likely outcome, while a crash before the end of 2014 appears to have about 1 in 4 odds.

The whole shebang
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/index.html

[bigB]

The first attachment is from the UAlbany(courtesy Carl Shreck) of the GFS 138 hr forecast for wind and absolute vorticity(TOP), along with the 138 hr forecast for precipitation and zonal wind anomalies(BOTTOM). To provide a full view of the Equatorial Pacific, I spliced together images of  Western and Eastern Pacific. Notice the forecast is calling for TC development in Western, Central, and Eastern Pacific. If this occurs, it should help weaken trade winds and provide at least weak westerly anomalies. We shall see

The second attached image is from Surfline.com's hurricanetrak model, updated Sep 7, which shows the current track and intensity forecast for TC Fengshen(also the swell heights). Notice the large area of high seas near and around the Aleutian Islands(orange colors). That swell was generated by an early season frontal low, which was enhanced by tropical moisture that recurved from the Western Pacific earlier in the week. Currently, TC Fengshen of the West Pacific, is expected to do the same thing over the next several days, and then next week, yet another TC is forecast to recurve and combine with a low pressure system under the Aleutians. This is exactly the type of pattern or behavior we want to see if an El Nino were developing

JayW,

Speaking of snow, I used to snowboard A LOT during my junior and senior year in high school. A few friends and I used to go up every other weekend during the winter(weekends because the nearest ski resorts were 2-3 hours away).  Haven't been in a while, still got my board, bindings, boots, pants, goggles, etc... packed away somewhere at my parents house. I used to spend most my time in the parks, but whenever there was fresh powder id spend most of my time going out of bounds(off the side of the marked trails/back country) carving my own line through the trees and sometimes not paying attention to how far down the side of the mountain i was until it was too late. Then Id spend an hour hiking back up, wishing there was a ski lift. Almost got lost a few times, but i loved it. I miss the snow! Living in Santa Barbara CA, i don't see the snow that often other than every other year when we get a light dusting(less than an inch) across the very tops of our local mountains.

[AbruptSLR]

Attached is the 30-day moving average SOI issued by the BoM on Sept 8 2014 (Sydney time), indicating that this value has drifted down to -9.6:

[bigB]

The attached video is for those who would like to view the latest ENSO/MJO update/forecast video from STORMSURF.COM, by MARK SPONSLER, updated SEPTEMBER 7, 2014. Skip to 13:20 to view ENSO/MJO update/forecast.

[AbruptSLR]

The following data issued by NOAA through the week centered on September 3 2014, indicates that the Nino 3, 3.4 and 4 indices remain unchanged, but that the Nino 1+2 index indicates conditions slightly more favorable for an El Nino event this boreal Fall:

                     Nino1+2       Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 06AUG2014     22.2 1.2     25.6 0.4     27.0 0.0     29.2 0.5
 13AUG2014     21.9 1.2     25.5 0.5     26.9 0.0     29.0 0.4
 20AUG2014     22.1 1.4     25.5 0.5     27.1 0.3     29.1 0.4
 27AUG2014     21.3 0.8     25.4 0.4     27.2 0.4     29.2 0.5
03SEP2014     21.7 1.2    25.3 0.4    27.1 0.4    29.2 0.5

[bigB]

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of September 8th, the daily SOI value was down to -14.08, the 30 day avg was down slightly to -8.98, and the 90 day avg was up slightly to -5.79. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies. As expected, a more favorable SLP pattern has returned to Darwin and Tahiti and according to models, it should hold for the next several days.

[AbruptSLR]

The attached ECMM - MJO forecast issued today (Sept 8 2014) shows that there is little chance that the MJO will serve to simulate an El Nino event during the MJO's current active phase (however, it is possible that this forecast could change by the end of September).

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued today by the BoM the 30-day moving average SOI value has drifted down from -9.6 yesterday to -9.7 today:

20140809,20140907,-9.7

Edit: Here is the plot

[AbruptSLR]

The BoM has updated their ENSO Overview on Sept 9 2014 as follows:

"Despite some warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past month, ENSO remains neutral. However, models continue to suggest an El Niño remains possible in 2014, and hence the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker remains at WATCH status, indicating at least double the normal risk of an El Niño developing by the end of the year.

Although tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are within neutral range, an area of the sub-surface is warmer than average. A late season El Niño remains possible if these warmer waters rise to the surface and then affect atmospheric circulation, or if another sustained westerly wind burst develops in the western Pacific.

The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate central tropical Pacific surface temperatures will remain warmer than average, and may exceed El Niño thresholds by the end of the year. These model outlooks and current observations mean the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker remains at WATCH status, indicating at least a 50% chance (double the normal likelihood) of an El Niño forming in 2014.

El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall over large parts of southern and eastern inland areas of Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over southern Australia. Such impacts can often occur while an event is developing, as experienced in some locations over the past several months.

The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean has shown signs of weakening. Waters to the north of Australia and in the Timor Sea have cooled over the past two weeks. All climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the IOD will continue to weaken, with neutral conditions likely to return during the austral spring."

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As indicated in the Sept 9 2014 BoM ENSO Overview, the biggest change in the ocean's surface conditions, that affect the ENSO, has been in the Indian Ocean Dipole, IOD, which as indicated by the first attached plot (note both attached plots are for the week ending Sept 7 2014) of IOD has rapidly become neutral (and which is forecast to become positive by the austral Spring/boreal Fall; which would indicate possible support, from the Indian Ocean, for a moderate El Nino event by the end of this year).  The second attached image shows that the Nino 3.4 index remains unchanged from last week at +0.38 (and thus indicates neutral conditions):

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The attached Nino 1, 2, 3, & 4 indices (respectively) issued by the BoM are all updated through the week ending Sept 7 2014, and mostly indicate mild/weak support from the ocean for a possible new El Nino event this boreal Fall:

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The first attachment is of the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of September 9th, the daily SOI value was way down to -23.59, the 30 day avg was down to -9.49, and the 90 day avg was down slightly to -6.14. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies.

The second attached image is of the TAO plots for 5 day equatorial subsurface temps and anomalies, which shows that as of Sep 8th, actual sensors(vs. modeled data) at 125W(NOTE: this appears to be the NDBC's latest repair to the TAO buoy array) are now measuring subsurface temp anomalies up to +4 deg c above normal. It also shows a nice open channel of warm water downwelling in the western Pacific and slowly feeding the back side of the building Kelvin wave, which is likely just a few weeks away from surfacing.

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The following data issued by the BoM today indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -10.5 (and appears set-up to drop further):

20140810,20140908,-10.5

Edit: Here is the plot

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According to the attached ECMM-MJO forecast issued today, the MJO could strengthen near the international dateline by mid-September:

[bigB]

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of September 10th, the daily SOI value was up to -12.95, the 30 day avg was down to -9.62, and the 90 day avg was down to –6.60. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies.

[AbruptSLR]

Further to my post in Reply #1615 about the prospects of the active phase of the MJO peaking around the International Dateline around Sept 14, 2014; I attached the Wundermap forecast for Sept 14, 2014 that indicates a reasonably strong SPCZ activity.  Therefore, if by chance some WWB activity were to occur near the International Dateline between Sept 14 to Sept 15, then it is could help to stabilize the SPCZ, which if sustained (say for a week or two), could serve to flip the Walker Cell into an El Nino pattern.  While this scenario does not have a high likelihood of occurring, at least we do not have long to wait to see whether it happens, or not.

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Further to my post in Reply #1617, the two attached images were issued by Albany University on Sept 10 2014 of: (the first image) the past and forecast surface (850-hPa at the bottom of the Walker Cell) wind anomalies showing a mild westerly wind at the International Dateline around Sept 14; and (the second image) the past and forecast wind anomaly at 200-hPa (roughly the top of the Walker Cell) showing an easterly wind anomaly just west of the International Dateline.  Such conditions (if they were to occur) are conducive to flipping the Walker Cell into an El Nino pattern (say a week, or so, after Sept 14).

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According to the following data issued by the BoM today, the 30-day moving average has drifted up to -9.9 (up from -10.5 yesterday):

20140811,20140909,-9.9

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Per the linked data, the final PDO value for August is +0.67, which is a reasonably strong positive value:

http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

YEAR    JAN    FEB   MAR   APR    MAY    JUN    JUL   Aug   
2014   0.30   0.38   0.97   1.13   1.80   0.82   0.70   0.67