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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #650 on: April 21, 2014, 03:38:45 PM »
To me, what is most important about the attached NOAA SSTA chart for April 21 2014 is that all of the cold water pool off the coast of Ecuador has now been displaced; which to my thinking means that the cold water input to the equatorial zone from the Humboldt Current should be diminishing in the future so that the Nino3.4 should be increasing again shortly.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #651 on: April 21, 2014, 03:52:52 PM »
The first attached image from NOAA of the MJO RMM index plot through April 20 2014 confirms the trend indicated by the 90-day Wheeler & Hendon plot that I provided earlier (but with higher index values) that the MJO is still traveling westward without losing any strength.

The second attached image of the surface (850-hPa) velocity potential history by NOAA, indicates that the CCKW is still weakening near the Equatorial Date Line (180 degrees).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #652 on: April 21, 2014, 04:37:38 PM »
The attached Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat Content Anomaly graph is from the weekly NOAA ENSO summary issued April 21 2014, and shows that this anomaly is weakening slightly (possibly due to the relatively weak WWB activity in the Equatorial Western Pacific for the past several weeks).
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #653 on: April 22, 2014, 03:08:52 AM »
The attached BoM image indicates that for April 22 2014 the 30-day moving average SOI value is +2.2.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #654 on: April 22, 2014, 01:01:52 PM »
Latest from the BOM

The likelihood of El Niño remains high, with all climate models surveyed by the Bureau now indicating El Niño is likely to occur in 2014. Six of the seven models suggest El Niño thresholds may be exceeded as early as July.
The Pacific Ocean has been warming along the equator over recent weeks, with continued warming in the central Pacific likely in coming months. Another burst of westerly winds is presently occurring in the western Pacific, and is likely to cause further warming of the sub-surface.


More here http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #655 on: April 22, 2014, 03:24:18 PM »
We are currently in the third notable WWB since the Kelvin wave that is now warming the Pacific basin first appeared in the western Pacific. Strong WWBs occurred in late January, late February/early March, and the third one began in the last two weeks. Depending on how the MJO responds and as we enter the Pacific tropical typhoon season, the WWB activity could kick up again shortly.


AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #656 on: April 22, 2014, 05:10:06 PM »
Further to deep octopus's post, I would like to note that the 850-hPA (5N-5S) surface wind history plot that he posted, not only shows the recent WWB associated with the CCKW, but as shows the recent weakening of the trade winds.

Also, the first attached chart from NOAA shows that for April 21 2014 the MJO has weakened slightly but remains in the western part of the Equatorial Western Pacific, where it might (or might not) gain strength when it starts to travel eastward again.  Also, in order to explain the differences between the RMM values that NOAA posts versus those posted by the BoM, NOAA provides the following text:
"Below are images displaying the Climate Prediction Center version of the Wheeler and Hendon (2004) (hereafter WH2004) daily MJO index for both the last 40 and 90 days. The methodology followed at CPC is nearly identical to that outlined in the above reference and operationally displayed at the Australia Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC). Slight differences may occur at times due to subtle deviations in input data and methodology and mainly occur during weak MJO periods."

The second BoM plot of the Nino3.4 index to April 20 2014 shows that this index has increased to +0.34 (from +0.32 on April 13 2014), indicating that the EKW is continuing to surface (I also note that this value is appreciably higher than the corresponding NOAA value).

Finally, I note that the Long Paddock station daily SOI value for April 22 2014 is +5.48; which indicates that the 30-day moving average will continue to become more positive, but will remain in the "neutral" zone.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #657 on: April 22, 2014, 05:14:46 PM »
Further to BFTV's report on the BoM's April 22 2014 ENSO update, I provide the BoM's plots for the Nino 1,2,3 and 4 indices for the week ending April 20 2014; which can be found by scrolling though the graphs located at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml?bookmark=nino3.4

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #658 on: April 22, 2014, 08:06:09 PM »
The attached NOAA subsurface temperature and temperature anomaly profiles for the Equatorial Pacific for April 18 2014 (which you can compare to the image for April 13 shown in Reply #626), show that: (a) as the EKW slowly continues to surface, it appears to be weakening; and (b) a limited amount of new warm water from the Western Equatorial Pacific is slowly moving eastward to help reinforce the EKW presumably due to the WWBs associated with the recent CCKW.  This all indicates that in order for our current fledgling El Nino event to develop into a Super status, the Walker Cell will need to change into an El Nino configuration; which has not yet happened, but yet which may happen still sometime between early May and the end of July.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #659 on: April 22, 2014, 09:51:37 PM »
I have not been able to find a site with real-time data for either the Kuroshio, or the Humboldt, Currents; however, the first attached figure from the following website, make it appear that a "contracted state" for the Kuroshio Extension appears to reinforce an El Nino condition:

http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/kuroshio.html

The caption for the first attached image: "Standardized Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) over the Kuroshio region.  Blue shaded areas correspond to elongated states periods (1993-94, 2002-04 and 2010-11), while orange shaded areas fit contracted states periods  (1997-2001 and 2009)."

Extract from the site: "The Kuroshio Extension is characterized by a strong variability. This variability results in two rather different states of the Kuroshio Extension: an "elongated state" corresponding to a narrow strong steady jet vs a "contracted state" in which the jet is weaker and more unsteady, spreading on a wider latitudinal band. Between these two main states, the Kuroshio Extension has many neutral states of transition and presents either progressively weakening or strengthening trends. An indicator based on the high-frequency eddy kinetic energy (EKE) well checks these Kuroshio Extension states."

The caption for the second attached image is: "Yearly paths of the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension (paths are plotted every 14 days). 1993-1994, 2002-2004 and 2010-2011 are "stable" years (paths are closer to each others, their lengths is shorter), while 1996-2001 and 2006-2008 show high unstability. The measurements of the length of the paths provides with an indicator of this stability. (Credits University of Hawaii at Manoa)."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #660 on: April 22, 2014, 10:19:04 PM »
I found following interesting article http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059748/abstract where they find a connection between the anomalous ridging in N. America and the many outbreaks of frigid air from Arctic this winter. equal interesting is that this weather pattern in the past have tended to be a precursor to a full fledged El Niño...

I'm also waiting for the new WWB to fuel more heat to the East! Interestingly, an eyelook at TAO/Triton seems to me that this new WWB is farther east compared with the ones in january and february... It may be so that a another WWB is underway in the Central/East Pacific around 145W..

And it's also worth to notify that the small area where there still are no westerlies around the date line is shrinking...

Sadly, there are no indications of a TC to develop in the WPAC.. :( However, there is a small possibility of a TC development southwest of Papua New Guinea at 8-9 deg south of equator. Regardless of development that disturbance may add a small contribution to the recent WWB..

My gut feeling (not very scientific(!)) is that the system is working overtime to prevent an El Niño to form and unleash a big surprise to our world... When that happens I will not be surprised if we are going to see a rapid increase in the global average temperature during the next decade or so...

//LMV

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #661 on: April 23, 2014, 03:28:45 AM »
I am surprised to say that the 30-day moving average SOI for April 23 2014 (per the BoM) has become less positive and is now +1.9 as indicated in the attached plot.  This is surprising to me because the values leaving the moving average are still negative and the Long Paddock station daily SOI for April 22 was positive.  In any event, if the SOI were more negative than -8 then one would expect the trade winds to be weakening, but as has been indicated in earlier posts the trade winds are weakening anyway even though the SOI is technically neutral.  It will be interesting to see what the MJO and the SOI do over the next two to three weeks.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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ChasingIce

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #662 on: April 23, 2014, 05:53:01 AM »
I am surprised to say that the 30-day moving average SOI for April 23 2014 (per the BoM) has become less positive and is now +1.9 as indicated in the attached plot.

surprised as well, since a 30-day average is fairly easy to compute, and the numbers are published daily.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
« Last Edit: April 23, 2014, 05:58:14 AM by ChasingIce »

davidsanger

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #663 on: April 23, 2014, 08:10:02 AM »
For the mathematically minded:
There are a few different methods of how to calculate the SOI. The method used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is the Troup SOI which is the standardised anomaly of the Mean Sea Level Pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. It is calculated as follows:

 

                       [ Pdiff - Pdiffav ]
        SOI = 10 -------------------
                         SD(Pdiff)     
       
where
Pdiff   =   (average Tahiti MSLP for the month) - (average Darwin MSLP for the month),
Pdiffav   =   long term average of Pdiff for the month in question, and
SD(Pdiff)   =   long term standard deviation of Pdiff for the month in question.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml

ChasingIce

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #664 on: April 23, 2014, 08:35:41 AM »
The main difference, as far as I can note, would be that they use a different baseline.
Quote
The dataset the Bureau uses has 1933 to 1992 as the climatology period.

always funny how the BoM has to be such an outlier at times though. 

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #665 on: April 23, 2014, 03:57:35 PM »
Just for the record:

Long Paddock station April 23 2014 daily SOI = 19.54

While this jump may (or may not) be weather related, this large of an increase in the daily Long Paddock station value will certainly make the 30-day moving average more positive later today.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #666 on: April 23, 2014, 04:10:06 PM »
The attached MJO RMM 40-day plot from NOAA, through April 22 2014, indicates that the MJO have moved appreciably moved eastward without changing its strength (which is currently weak).  I note that NOAA's ensemble mean forecast projects that the MJO will stay weak until after it passes east of the equatorial Date Line (180 degrees).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #667 on: April 23, 2014, 05:20:50 PM »
It's been a while since I've reviewed the warm water volume (WWV) data. Current data shows that the WWV for the Pacific basin (120E to 80W; 5S to 5N) is 2.15*1014 m3 for April (thus far.) This remains the largest WWV since June 1997.



Despite NOAA reporting in its weekly updates that the upper ocean heat content has leveled and declined slightly in the eastern central Pacific (180W to 100W), overall Pacific basin upper ocean heat content has steadily grown, to its highest point since October 1997.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/wwv/data/t300.dat


AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #668 on: April 23, 2014, 06:05:38 PM »
Also, as indicated in the attached Nino Indices summary by Kyle MacRitchie, if the current trend holds, then it is likely that the Nino3.4 index may exceed +0.5 next week, just as it did in 1997.
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deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #669 on: April 23, 2014, 08:47:31 PM »
Yes, I believe we'll crack the elusive 0.5 C milestone soon. I'm a bit surprised how long it has taken after a strong finish to March, but I think, again, it may be this game of catch up with the climatology average even as Niño 3.4 continues to (nominally) warm. So the anomalies are still a bit muted. It took until April 23rd for 1997 to get above 0.5 C as well, so 2014 is still moving at a quick pace, all told.

Hat tip to Eric Holthaus for collaborating an interesting and comprehensive list of the possible responses to El Niño in 60 different locales around the world.

http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/04/el_nino_2014_2015_what_the_weather_pattern_means_for_60_plus_places.html

Steven

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #670 on: April 23, 2014, 09:02:40 PM »
Also, as indicated in the attached Nino Indices summary by Kyle MacRitchie, if the current trend holds, then it is likely that the Nino3.4 index may exceed +0.5 next week, just as it did in 1997.

I'm not sure how to interpret MacRitchie's graphs.  The dotted horizontal lines in the graphs correspond to the values 1.0 and 2.0.  So the anomaly values in his graph with title "SST 3.4" have constantly been above the threshold of +0.5 for the last few weeks.  This is obviously not compatible with the weekly Nino 3.4 indices that were reported by NOAA or BOM.

The values in MacRitchie's "SST 3.4" graph appear to deviate from the usual Nino 3.4 index, especially since late February/ early March.  The same seems to hold for his "SST 1+2" graph.  Perhaps it has something to do with the seasonal cycle that MacRitchie subtracts from the data.

wili

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #671 on: April 23, 2014, 09:04:36 PM »
DO, thanks for that link and for the graph above (and really, we all owe a great debt to both you and ASLR for helping us keep on top of this stuff).

Joe Romm now has a post on the developing El Nino:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/04/22/3429380/el-nino-global-warming-temperature-record/

And he promises more:

Quote
Since this El Niño could be the defining climate event for the next few years, Climate Progress will be reporting on it regularly.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #672 on: April 23, 2014, 10:05:49 PM »
Steven,

MacRitchie has the following notice posted at his site: "I updated the algorithm to make these indices on Thursday, April 10th. The new algorithm brings them more in-line to the indices from CPC (although I still use daily data)."

Therefore, you should focus on the information after April 10, and you should consider carefully over what periods that the NOAA and the BoM average their week Nino3.4 values, as the MacRitchie values are only daily.

Best,
ASLR
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Steven

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #673 on: April 23, 2014, 11:42:33 PM »
MacRitchie has the following notice posted at his site: "I updated the algorithm to make these indices on Thursday, April 10th. The new algorithm brings them more in-line to the indices from CPC (although I still use daily data)."

AbruptSLR, I also noticed this.  But it doesn't address what I wrote before.

I had a brief email conversation with Kyle MacRitchie to ask about this issue.  He was kind enough to reply: he agreed that his graphs are on the high side, but he doesn't know why exactly.

The fact that his graphs are on the high side, was also the reason why he updated his algorithm on April 10th.  The new version is "more in-line to the indices from CPC", but there are still substantial differences, even if you take into account that one is daily and the other is weekly.  See also his "SST 1+2" graph.

MacRitchie's update on April 10th was related to the seasonal cycle that is removed from the data, as described on this page.  But this description is unclear to me.  I suspect something may be wrong with it, perhaps a change of baselines from February 28th/ March 1st (which is then "smoothed out" in the graphs), but this is just my own speculation, and it's almost midnight so I'll try to have another look tomorrow...

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #674 on: April 24, 2014, 12:48:25 AM »
Steven,

Thanks for the great legwork, and it sounds like you are on the right track as certainly small differences in the seasonal baseline could account for the index differences that you have pointed-out.

Best,
ASLR
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #675 on: April 24, 2014, 02:50:56 AM »
Attached is today's 30-day moving SOI average for April 24 2014 with the value increasing to +2.2.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #676 on: April 24, 2014, 03:37:34 PM »
The 48-hr April 24 forecast by Cyclocane has identified a tropical disturbance in the Equatorial Western Pacific as follows:

"WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 154.9E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 154.3E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN
ILL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
LIMITED BURSTS OF ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. MSI ALSO SHOWS A
RAPIDLY WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 9.1N 153.0E,
WHICH IS DISPLACED WELL WEST OF THE ACTUAL LLCC. A 232354Z METOP-B
IMAGE DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF
THE POORLY-DEFINED, WEAK LLCC. A 232259Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 10 TO
15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF 15 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY
WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW."

It will be interesting to see whether the eastward directed MJO reinforces this tropical disturbance, or not, as they approach each other in the next day, or so.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #677 on: April 24, 2014, 03:50:22 PM »
The following selected quotes come from "The Great Coral Grief" by Iain McCalman, Scientific American, May 2014 (also see The Reef: A Passionate History, by Iain McCalman, Scientific American Books, 2014):

"The next major spate of mass bleaching, between 1997 and 1998, hammered reefs in more than 50 countries, even among the hot-water corals of the Arabian Sea.  On the Great Barrier Reef, the bleaching coincided with the warmest sea temperatures ever recorded.  In an even worse mass-bleaching event in 2001-2002, the global damage also confirmed a close connection with El Nino weather cycles.  Catastrophic global warming had arrived. Peculiarly susceptible to increases in heat and light, corals were now alerting scientists to climatic changes.

Charlie's research told him that during El Nino weather cycles, the surface seawaters in the Great Barrier Reef lagoon, already heated to unusually high levels by greenhouse gas-induced warming, were being pulsed from a mass of ocean water known as the Western Pacific Warm Poll onto the reef's delicate living corals."

The SSTA off the eastern coast of Australia is already anomalously high, and if our current fledgling El Nino gains strength in the coming months, the situation for coral around the world will likely become much worse.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #678 on: April 24, 2014, 03:57:10 PM »
The EKW surfacing off of South America is beginning to deflect north and south of the equator.

Compare the change in the last week...

April 17th


April 24th


April 24th, full Pacific basin. A warm pool is forming off of the coast of the Americas as the EKW surfaces and spreads north and south. Continual movement of warm water to the south will assist in staunching the upwelling of cool, nutrient-rich water in the Humboldt Current. The Humboldt Current will also be further prevented from delivering cool water into the equatorial Pacific, and hasten development of El Niño.

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #679 on: April 24, 2014, 05:17:04 PM »
I'm occasionally still attempting various overlays, this time I think I got one correct, from maps provided by deep octopus, thank you. I think the trick to get changes properly visible is to change color mapping on *one* of the source images, changing the intensities of the colors as well, and *then* seeking values for other image attributes...
 
blues-violets - no big changes
red - switching to positive anomaly
yellow - switching to negative anomaly

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #680 on: April 24, 2014, 05:24:37 PM »
As NOAA is slow this morning to post its 40-day RMM plot, I attach the following 90-day Wheeler & Hendon (by BoM) RMM plot through April 23 2014; indicating that the MJO has slightly gained strength, and has slight slowed its rate of eastward progress, during the past day:
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #681 on: April 24, 2014, 08:26:43 PM »
While the following data shows that the daily SOI value is relatively high, I suspect that this may well be related to the risk of a tropical disturbance forming right near Darwin as indicated by the attached image from the Cyclocane 48-hr tropical storm forecast issued April 24 2014

Long Paddock station April 24 2014 SOI = 20.55
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #682 on: April 24, 2014, 09:47:05 PM »
The attached image from NOAA of the latest Equatorial Eastern Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Content Anomalies indicates that these anomalies are continuing to decrease, confirming that the Walker Cell still needs to transition to an El Nino condition in order resupply the current EKW with more warm water from the Western Pacific, before a strong El Nino can develop:
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #683 on: April 25, 2014, 04:18:51 AM »
Attached is today's 30-day moving average SOI plot with a value of +2.7
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #684 on: April 25, 2014, 04:38:14 PM »
First,  the attached Wheeler & Hendon 90-day RMM plot indicates that on April 24 2014 the MJO moved westward.

Second, the following Cyclocane 48-forecast indicates that the tropical disturbance near 7.9N 145.7E is remaining in about the same location as yesterday, so there is still a chance that it may interact with the MJO (when the MJO starts to move eastward again):

"WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7N
145.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 145.7E, APPROXIMATELY 454 NM EAST
OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ILL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 251013Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
BROADLY WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW."

Finally, as the tropical disturbance near Darwin remains intact, the Long Paddock station daily SOI values remain positive, so I guess that the 30-day moving average SOI value will trend up today.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #685 on: April 25, 2014, 05:44:13 PM »
The attached summary graph of weekly NOAA Nino3.4 index values (see the following link for the source) provides some idea of the timing of the failed 2012 El Nino event; which implies me that we still have at least a couple of months to go to see whether the Walker Cell finally transitions into an El Nino pattern (which would then strengthen the current fledgling El Nino):

http://weather.ninemsn.com.au/climate/indicator_enso.jsp?c=nino34
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #686 on: April 25, 2014, 05:51:14 PM »
In the attached 40-day record of the RMM for the MJO, NOAA has revised their records to more closely match the Wheeler & Hendon 90-day RMM plot; which indicates both: (a) that the MJO is weaker than NOAA was previously reporting; and (b) on April 24 2014 the MJO moved westward, leaving it in a position to possibly interact with the tropical disturbance currently near 7.9N 145.7E.
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deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #687 on: April 25, 2014, 06:22:12 PM »
The EKW has nearly departed the subsurface, as it continues to rise to the surface far to the east at the Americas. The 155 meter depth chart of ocean temperatures shows that the very warm (up to 7 C) EKW that departed the western Pacific around the very end of last year is closing. A rebounding cool, upwelling Kelvin wave moving east would be the expected retaliation in this tit-for-tat oceanic choreography. Neither the pentad latitude-depth charts nor the time section charts show much yet. That's not to say that the pocket of somewhat cool water around 160E is innocuous. If it shows much development, it will pose a risk to the El Niño months down the road. If it fails, the odds of a protracted El Niño event increase. Either way, this will be worth watching. Interfering westerlies may rush enough warm water to dampen upwelling Kelvin waves.


AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #688 on: April 25, 2014, 06:55:46 PM »
Further to deep octopus's post, I provide the attached 105m and 55m temperature anomaly 2N-2S NOAA charts for April 20 2014, respectively.  These charts to not current show any temperature anomalies above 7 degrees C; but they do show the EKW is slowly surfacing as it interacts with South America.  Possibly as the EKW surfaces it may (or may not) increase the equatorial atmospheric humidity sufficiently in the Eastern Pacific to help suppress the trade winds enough to help transition the Walker Cell into an El Nino pattern (also we should not forget that the Nino 3.4 SSTA measurement zone only extends from 170W to 120W):
« Last Edit: April 25, 2014, 07:02:33 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #689 on: April 25, 2014, 07:14:47 PM »
While weather forecasts are variable, the attached 78-hr forecast by the University of Albany for April 28 2014, indicates that the tropical disturbance near 7.9N and 145.7E may grow into a tropical storm within the next two to three days.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #690 on: April 25, 2014, 09:32:24 PM »
The feeling is that the atmosphere is working 200% to prevent a massiver El Niño event... It should be plausible that the 7 deg anomaly isn't fading but just at a different depth... After all, the wind anomalies according to PMEL/TAO have been positive for a while and finally, at last, they seem to be positive west of 125W.. The area between 165W-135W with positive wind anomalies is also showing no signs to abate which should be no disadvantage.. The fact is that they haven't been that positive the last 2 years..

Neither ECMWF or GFS are showing any real signs of TC activity the next 7-10 days :( I don't give the disturbance near 7,9N any nice odds for development, just 5-10%.. The odds are however increasing for every week now that we'll see a TC developing in WPAC...

The TAO data averaged five days are showing some discernible hints that the OHC is slowly increasing again, both around date line and 110W.. Look at: http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=EQ&P2=uwnd&P3=anom&P4=heat&P5=anom&P6=hf&P7=Year&P8=Month&P9=Year&P10=Month&P11=off&script=jsdisplay/scripts/time-lon-jsd.csh

Cheers, LMV :)

Some questions are interesting: what are the forecasts for MJO and CCKW?

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #691 on: April 25, 2014, 10:17:12 PM »
LMV,

The Tao data that you linked to makes it look like most of the Tao buoys have been repaired.  In response to your questions about MJO & CCKW forecasts:

The first image shows the ensemble mean MJO forecast by NOAA.
The second image shows the GFS forecast (blue line) by NOAA.
The third image by Ventrice indicates to me that the CCKW has either moved well east of the Date Line, and/or has weakened.

If you believe the forecasts then there is little chance that the Walker Cell will transition anytime in the next month.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #692 on: April 25, 2014, 11:41:58 PM »
AbruptSLR, regarding our discussion from a few days ago: Kyle MacRitchie emailed me that he found an error in his algorithm and he has now updated his graph for the Nino 3.4 region:

http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/ensosst-3-4
« Last Edit: April 25, 2014, 11:48:53 PM by Steven »

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #693 on: April 26, 2014, 01:07:56 AM »
Steven,

Thanks for the great coordination with Kyle MacRitchie.  Kyle must have changed is algorithm today because the attached image looks much different than this morning's version.  As it is still hard to read Kyle's graph, I will note that per my Reply #463 we know that on April 2nd at least the daily Nino3.4 was over +0.5 (and then dropped back down).  I guess we will learn on Monday what NOAA's weekly Nino3.4 value was for the week centered on April 23, so that we can get another calibration point to Kyle's plots.

Best,
ASLR
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From Lima(Peru)

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #694 on: April 26, 2014, 02:10:40 AM »
Useful link to IMARPE (Instituto del MAR del PEru)  what is now "ground zero" of ENSO (Peru):

http://www.imarpe.gob.pe/enso/Inicio/Tema1.htm]
[url]http://www.imarpe.gob.pe/enso/Inicio/Tema1.htm
[/url]

Things are begging to warm up here, it could be the warming on the Peruvian SST:



Best regards

From Lima(Peru)

From Lima(Peru)

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #695 on: April 26, 2014, 02:20:59 AM »
For context to my previous image, I show the Eastern Pacific temperatures:



and the anomalies:


AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #696 on: April 26, 2014, 03:18:40 AM »
Attached is the 30-day moving average SOI for April 26 2014 with a value of +3.9.
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #697 on: April 26, 2014, 04:54:27 PM »
.....per my Reply #463 we know that on April 2nd at least the daily Nino3.4 was over +0.5 (and then dropped back down).

AbruptSLR, according to your source in Reply #463, there was a sudden rise of the Nino 3.4 index on April 1st (or April 2nd?), increasing by about 0.45 in a single day.  I would guess that a 1-day rise of that magnitude may suggest an outlier, or perhaps it was partly related to the transition from March to April in one way or another.  But I could be wrong on this. 

Do you know if there is a more recent update from your source in Reply #463?

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #698 on: April 26, 2014, 05:11:29 PM »
First, I note that the Cyclocane 48-hr forecast has increased the risk of a tropical storm in the Western North Pacific from low yesterday to medium today (see forecast below):

"WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N
144.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-ORGANIZING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261158Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 261159Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 10-15 KNOT
CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WIND BARBS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
DUE TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM."

Second, per the attached NOAA MJO 40-day plot on April 25 2014 the RMM value decreased and the MJO moved eastward (to a point close to the tropical disturbance cited above).

Thus, it appears that the current MJO will have little affect on the Walker Cell this time around and we will likely need to wait for another month or two to see if it influence the Walker Cell on its next cycle around the equator
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #699 on: April 26, 2014, 05:23:27 PM »
.....per my Reply #463 we know that on April 2nd at least the daily Nino3.4 was over +0.5 (and then dropped back down).

AbruptSLR, according to your source in Reply #463, there was a sudden rise of the Nino 3.4 index on April 1st (or April 2nd?), increasing by about 0.45 in a single day.  I would guess that a 1-day rise of that magnitude may suggest an outlier, or perhaps it was partly related to the transition from March to April in one way or another.  But I could be wrong on this. 

Do you know if there is a more recent update from your source in Reply #463?

Steven,

Unfortunately, I am too cheap to subscribe to the StormVistaWxModels service, so I do not have access to daily Nino indices values (what I reported in Reply #463 came from a farming investment service report).  In any event the short-term increase in the Nino3.4 near April 1 (or the morning of the 2nd) was of little impact whether it was due to a data reporting error, or possible due to a cold eddy from the Humboldt Current flowing into the equatorial zone between 170W and 120W.  In any event it is interesting that Kyle's forecast shows the Nino3.4 increasing after the first week in May, so we will soon see if the EKW forms any synergy with the atmosphere.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson