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bigB

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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1401 on: July 29, 2014, 04:38:19 PM »
The following is the BoM ENSO forecast:

"El Niño indicators ease

Issued on Tuesday 29 July 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

Despite the tropical Pacific Ocean being primed for an El Niño during much of the first half of 2014, the atmosphere above has largely failed to respond, and hence the ocean and atmosphere have not reinforced each other. As a result, some cooling has now taken place in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, with most of the key NINO regions returning to neutral values.

While the chance of an El Niño in 2014 has clearly eased, warmer-than-average waters persist in parts of the tropical Pacific, and the (slight) majority of climate models suggest El Niño remains likely for spring. Hence the establishment of El Niño before year's end cannot be ruled out. If an El Niño were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event.

Given the current observations and the climate model outlooks, the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker has shifted to El Niño WATCH status. This means the chance of El Niño developing in 2014 is approximately 50%, which remains significant at double the normal likelihood of an event.

El Niño is often associated with wide scale below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland areas of Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over southern Australia. Similar impacts prior to the event becoming fully established regularly occur.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been below −0.4 °C (the negative IOD threshold) since mid-June, but needs to remain negative into August to be considered an event. Model outlooks suggest this negative IOD is likely to be short lived, and return to neutral by spring. A negative IOD pattern typically brings wetter winter and spring conditions to inland and southern Australia."

The following are the Nino 1,2, 3, and 4 indices, respectively, issued by the BoM for the week ending July 27 2014:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1402 on: July 29, 2014, 04:40:05 PM »
The attached BoM plot of the Nino 3.4 index for the week ending July 27 2014, indicates that this value has dropped to +0.2 (which is neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1403 on: July 29, 2014, 04:48:07 PM »
Both the first attached image of the GFS MJO forecast and the second attached image of the ECMM MJO forecast (both issued on July 29 2014) indicate that while the active phase of the MJO managed to stay relatively strong as it moved slightly eastward yesterday, it is still forecast to weaken rapidly as it approaches the Dateline.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1404 on: July 29, 2014, 08:48:05 PM »
Attached image is of the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of July 29, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was up to +4.06, the 30 day avg was up slightly at -5.11, and the 90 day avg was up slightly at -0.37. This reflects ENSO-neutral. The low pressure system that had been previously passing south of Tahiti, helping lower SLP in that region, is now too far to the south and east. High pressure previously located over Australia, helping elevate SLP at Darwin, has moved out over the South Pacific and is now located just to the northeast of New Zealand. This High Pressure is forecast to build and expand over the next several days, keeping SLP at Tahiti relatively elevated during this time. However, it appears that around Thursday or Friday a new high pressure system will begin building in over Australia, helping elevate SLP at Darwin once again. Then by about Saturday or Sunday, it appears a new low pressure system possibly associated with the SPCZ will build in almost directly over Tahiti, lowering SLP once again in that region. So in short, if one were to believe the models it would appear that daily SOI values will be on the rise through about Friday, then begin dropping again by about Saturday. This would cause the 30 day avg SOI values to continue rising through the end of the work week, then possibly start dropping again by the weekend. This is just a forecast and relies on the accuracy weather forecast models. NOTE: the most recent SOI values are marked in red and increase in font size depending on the value's importance of indicating overall atmospheric conditions/trends. The red and blue arrows show whether that particular value is rising or falling, since daily, 30 day avg, and 90 day avg SOI values don’t always fall or rise in sync. I guess it makes it visually easier to see whats going on.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1405 on: July 30, 2014, 12:07:01 AM »
The attached image is a comparison using TAO plots for Monthly EQ-Depth Temps/Anomalies, which shows the monthly avg of equatorial subsurface temps/anomalies for the month of July during the following years, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, and 2014. I decided I probably should have included July in the images I posted last night. So I’ll provide them now. Every year listed and shown in the image below, except 2014 of course, was officially declared at least a weak-moderate El Nino. Look at 1994 compared to 2014. Interestingly, even though the 94-95 El Nino event was weak, So Cal had an extremely wet winter. Santa Barbara had one of the wettest winters on record. The Jet Stream (Side Note: stronger jet stream almost always means the possibility of stronger pacific storm systems, but whether the storms actually take a favorable track over central or southern CA is a different story.) may have been stronger than one would usually expect during a weak El Nino, due to the “stuck in place” pattern from back to back El Ninos with no La Nina from late 1991 through early1995. Other than early to mid/late 80's (late 88, 89, 90, and part of 91 saw a drought not unlike the current one) those were the glory years, ask any surfer from the West Coast. Nonetheless, its interesting to see that all El Ninos shown below were relatively weak this time of year, especially in August with NOT one of them above +2 deg c for a monthly subsurface temp anomaly avg (see my previous post reply #1405). Then by November, all but 2004 had subsurface temp anomalies ranging in the +4.5 to +6 deg c. After 1 or 2 new downwelling Kelvin wave cycles. This year could fail though, I realize that.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1406 on: July 30, 2014, 02:31:07 AM »
As indicated below the BoM 30-day moving SOI value issued on July 30 2014 (Sydney time) is -5.1 (and is thus both neutral and almost unchanged):

20140629,20140728,-5.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1407 on: July 30, 2014, 02:36:13 AM »
The attached earth surface wind map indicates that the SPCZ may be starting to shift to the northeast, where (if it does shift) could significantly increase the likelihood of at least a weak El Nino this year.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1408 on: July 30, 2014, 06:50:33 AM »
Attached are the TAO plots for 5-day Zonal Winds and the TAO plots for 5-day EQ-depth temps/anomalies, which possibly shows 3-4 M/S-1 westerly wind anomalies/reduced trades starting around 150E continuing past the dateline to about 160W. If this turns out to be accurate, it would be a good sign. In the earth wind map image(which seems to reflect the westerly wind/reduced trades) previously posted by ASLR, one can see that it appears the many vortices(or “band of brothers” as Sleepy would say) embedded or associated with ITCZ, are helping to reduce trade winds across much of Equatorial Pacific. If these votices/ITCZ were to drop a few degs south and at or around the same time the SPCZ were to shift northeast as mentioned by ASLR, it sure would help out. Also, it appears that the TAO subsurface sensors located on the date line(180 longitude) have come back online, giving a clearer picture of the possibly building EKW(up to +1 or +1.5 deg c) under the Central Pacific. PLEASE NOTE: this data needs to be verified by a few more model updates before one can say for sure whether or not this is the case, but I thought it was interesting enough to share. Also, while the westerly winds on the other hand are very likely accurate. The issue is they need to continue for the next several days to have any significant impact, but hey, we'll take what we can get.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1409 on: July 30, 2014, 04:26:03 PM »
As forecast, the MJO dropped significantly yesterday and as indicated by the attached GFS forecast issued on July 30th, the MJO has essentially no chance of influencing the El Nino probabilities on this cycle; however, if both the ITCZ and the SPCZ continue to suppress the trade winds and to increase atmospheric convection near the Dateline; then on the next MJO cycle in another 30 to 60 days the MJO may, or may not, have more impact on the El Nino probabilities.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1410 on: July 30, 2014, 06:45:23 PM »
Another downwelling wave is absolutely starting to develop. This is consistent with the general sequence of wave activities in the western Pacific. Recent longitudinal ocean heat content (OHC) charts and warm water volume (WWV) charts show as much:



The cool, upwelling wave that has been passing through is much weaker than the warm, downwelling wave that started to progress eastward in January. Present activity at 155m depth shows a pocket of at least 1 C anomalously warm water around the dateline.



I suspect that if the present downwelling activity gathers heat and soon progresses east, we're looking at a late November/early December time frame for when it should surface in the east.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1411 on: July 30, 2014, 09:39:14 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of July 30, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was up to +6.65, the 30 day avg was up slightly at -4.47, and the 90 day avg was up slightly at -0.27. This reflects ENSO-neutral, but is still on the negative side of nuetral. The  reasoning behind the current trend in neutral/positive daily values remains the same(for those interested in viewing the reasoning please see reply #1411). The next two daily SOI values to leave the 30 day avg are relatively strong negative values. If forecast models are even somewhat accurate, I suspect that by Friday, SOI 30 day avg will have risen to at least -3 or -2. Possibly higher. However, it should start dropping again, as negative values are expected to replace weak positive values by about Sunday. This is just a forecast and relies on the accuracy of weather forecast models.

Of Note: Last night, i reported that the TAO subsurface sensors located on the dateline may have come back on line, giving a clear picture of the possibly building EKW. When i stated that this would need to be confirmed by another few model updates. I was referring to the TAO subsurface sensors on the dateline and the data they were suggesting. Nonetheless, the latest subsurface update shows the sensors at 180 longitude are still online. So it's looking likely they have come back online. I keep a close eye on scheduled cruises for TAO buoy repair. According to the NBDC, these TAO buoy repairs were not scheduled to begin taking place until September. I have not said anything about this because in the past(in Feb and Mar 2014), NOAA announced it was scheduled to go down and begin repairs. However, NOAA ended up only fixing 95W and 110W around late March early April(some may remember the large frustrating "white patches" that plagued the TAO subsurface images due to missing data). Then sadly canceled the rest of the cruises to continue fixing the next four rows of buoys(budget cuts). It was a major bummer. Anyways, the NBDC is supposedly going to start fixing the array from September through December of 2014. With the TAO array performance going from the current 40% supposedly up to 80% by December 2014. Maybe they have begun early like last time? It would help out a lot. When the TAO array is 80-90% working order. Nothing beats its real time daily data. 

EDIT: I made a slight adjustment to the legend in the attached SOI chart.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2014, 12:41:12 AM by bigB »

Michael Hauber

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1412 on: July 31, 2014, 12:51:10 AM »
Does the big Kelvin wave from early this year matter any more?  From what I understand hitting the coast of South America is not the end of a Kelvin wave's influence. 

First they part of the wave is then diverted north and south along the American coasts and plays some (minor? major?) role in spreading heat from the tropics to the rest of the globe.  There does seem to be unusual warmth off California which I would expect is related to this effect, whereas the coast of South America is relatively cool.

Second the delayed oscillator theory states that Kelvin waves bounce as slow moving Rossby waves near the equator, which eventually hit the west Pacific and bounce again as upwelling Kelvin waves to help terminate the El Nino about 18 months after the initial Kelvin wave.  All the papers proposing this theory seem to be from the 80s and 90s, so I'm not sure to what extent this theory is still supported.  I can't find anything that seems to directly contradict this theory, although I did find a paper discussing that certain models had this factor far too strong resulting in unrealistic results, and when the factor was weakened more realistic results were obtained.

I've looked for returning Rossby waves and never been certain that I've found them.  I'm not sure if the returning waves would be warm and potentially aid the development of an El Nino in coming months.

Considering that the initial Kelvin wave was extreme, these follow up impacts may be stronger than normal as well?
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1413 on: July 31, 2014, 03:25:59 AM »
Per the attached plot issued July 31 2014, the BoM 30-day moving average SOI remains unchanged from yesterday with a value of -5.1 (and thus is still neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1414 on: July 31, 2014, 04:52:00 PM »
While the MJO did not affect the El Nino probabilities on its recent cycle, according to the attached GFS MJO forecast, in 4 to 5 days it should be half-way across the Indian Ocean, so it will be interesting to see what the MJO does on its current new cycle.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1415 on: July 31, 2014, 04:56:25 PM »
The attached NOAA Subsurface Equatorial Temperature plots for July 27 2014, show both the old EKW almost dissipated in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, and shows that a new EKW appears to be developing near the Dateline and starting to move eastward.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1416 on: July 31, 2014, 05:03:31 PM »
The tendency of the currents is still negative/blue (easterly). As a downwelling Kelvin wave rolls through, we would expect to see positive/red (westerly) current anomalies. However, the easterly tendency is waning, and as the new EKW builds, the currents should reverse direction again.

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1417 on: July 31, 2014, 05:08:12 PM »
Cool water is checkering the remaining warm water anomalies in the central Pacific, whereas above average water continues to pool around South America (though is waning in size). The risk of La Niña is quite low: the upwelling Kelvin wave is rather weak and about to be retaliated by the developing downwelling EKW.


bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1418 on: July 31, 2014, 09:13:35 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of July 31, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was up to +9.48, the 30 day avg was up slightly at -3.40, and the 90 day avg was up slightly at -0.08. This still reflects ENSO-neutral. A more favorable SLP pattern may take back over by this weekend as low pressure is forecast to build in near Tahiti, possibly affecting that region through mid/late next week.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1419 on: August 01, 2014, 02:41:05 AM »
BoM has not updated their plot yet today but the following information indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.7 (and is thus still neutral)

20140701,20140730,-3.7
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1420 on: August 01, 2014, 08:38:29 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 1st, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was up to +12.93, the 30 day avg was up slightly at -1.93, and the 90 day avg was up slightly at +0.11. This is basically dead neutral. However, GFS models suggest we may see a relatively quick turn around starting tomorrow or Sunday. High pressure is forecast to build in over Australia during the next few days, raising SLP at Darwin. At the same time, low pressure is forecast to build in just to the south of Tahiti, lowering SLP in that region. This should then cause the return of negative daily SOI values and a dropping trend in both the 30 and 90 day avg SOI values. 

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1421 on: August 02, 2014, 02:29:42 AM »
The following data indicates that the current BoM's 30-day moving SOI value is now -2.3 (and thus is still neutral):

20140702,20140731,-2.3

edit: and here is the associated plot issued August 2 2014 (Sydney Time)
« Last Edit: August 02, 2014, 05:28:58 AM by AbruptSLR »
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1422 on: August 02, 2014, 08:08:55 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 2nd, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was down to +3.82, the 30 day avg was up slightly at -1.38, and the 90 day avg was up slightly at +0.30. This is basically dead neutral. GFS models continue to suggest high pressure will slowly build in over the southern portion of Australia, eventually extending up towards Darwin where it will cause SLP in that region to rise. Weak low pressure located just just to the south of Tahiti has already begun to lower SLP in that region. This pattern is expected to continue through at least Wednesday or Thursday. Likely causing the SOI 30 day avg to drop some or at least remain negative through the forecast period.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1423 on: August 02, 2014, 09:03:58 PM »
Attached are the dynamical and statistical OLR MJO forecasts from the CPC, issued on August 1st. Both are in relatively good agreement, suggesting a very weak inactive phase of the MJO is building in the Western Pacific and will will be hanging around there through the forecast period(yellow/red anomalies). The dynamic model is a bit more aggressive with strength and coverage, but just slightly and still suggests a weak inactive phase overall. The statistic model is so weak it could actually almost be considered neutral. These models have proven to be hard to trust in recent months and I would only suggest focusing on trends rather than exact numbers. If this scenario were to occur, neutral to weak easterly anomalies would likely come into play over the far Western Pacific and Maritime continents during the next two weeks. 

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1424 on: August 03, 2014, 03:31:40 AM »
Michael Hauber,

OCEANIC Rossby waves are a much more complicated matter than atmospheric Rossby waves. The three following links may help answer your question, which is not an easy one. After reading the first two links(if you haven’t already). The third link may be the most helpful as it allows you to view monthly SLA and SSTA(dating back to 1993) at same time. Hopefully, this helps.

http://www.noc.soton.ac.uk/JRD/SAT/Rossby/Rossbyintro.html

http://www.ess.uci.edu/~yu/class/ess228/lecture.6.adjustment.all.pdf

http://bulletin.aviso.oceanobs.com/html/produits/indic/enso/welcome_uk.php3

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1425 on: August 03, 2014, 06:12:22 AM »
The attached 30-day moving average SOI plot issued by BoM on August 3 2014 indicates a current value of -1.8 (which is neutral):

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1426 on: August 03, 2014, 08:48:35 PM »
The following McGregor et al (2014) linked reference about the recent (since 2002) strengthening of the Pacific trade winds (and the associated Walker Cell circulation) can largely be attributed to the recent trend of warming in the North Atlantic. 

McGregor, S., A. Timmermann, M. F. Stuecker, M. H. England, M. Merrifield, F.-F. Jin and Y. Chikamoto, (2014), "Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming", Nature Climate Change; doi:10.1038/nclimate2330

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2330.html

Abstract: "An unprecedented strengthening of Pacific trade winds since the late 1990s has caused widespread climate perturbations, including rapid sea-level rise in the western tropical Pacific, strengthening of Indo-Pacific ocean currents, and an increased uptake of heat in the equatorial Pacific thermocline. The corresponding intensification of the atmospheric Walker circulation is also associated with sea surface cooling in the eastern Pacific, which has been identified as one of the contributors to the current pause in global surface warming. In spite of recent progress in determining the climatic impacts of the Pacific trade wind acceleration, the cause of this pronounced trend in atmospheric circulation remains unknown. Here we analyse a series of climate model experiments along with observational data to show that the recent warming trend in Atlantic sea surface temperature and the corresponding trans-basin displacements of the main atmospheric pressure centres were key drivers of the observed Walker circulation intensification, eastern Pacific cooling, North American rainfall trends and western Pacific sea-level rise. Our study suggests that global surface warming has been partly offset by the Pacific climate response to enhanced Atlantic warming since the early 1990s."
However, one of the co-authors of the McGregor et al 2014 article, Matthew England, is quoted (in the subsequent extract from the linked Discovery website) as saying: "It will be difficult to predict when the Pacific cooling trend and its contribution to the global hiatus in surface temperatures will come to an end. However, a large El Niño event is one candidate that has the potential to drive the system back to a more synchronized Atlantic/Pacific warming situation."

http://news.discovery.com/earth/global-warming/global-warming-kicks-up-record-pacific-trade-winds-140803.htm

Extract: "It will be difficult to predict when the Pacific cooling trend and its contribution to the global hiatus in surface temperatures will come to an end," co-author Matthew England said. "However, a large El Niño event is one candidate that has the potential to drive the system back to a more synchronized Atlantic/Pacific warming situation."

However, it is important to note that the following linked Praetorius et al (2014) article provides paleo-evidence that the North Pacific and the North Atlantic will likely synchronize with increasing global warming, meaning that the global cooling effect of the recent El Nino hiatus is likely to be short lived

Summer K. Praetorius, Alan C. Mix, (2014), "Synchronization of North Pacific and Greenland climates preceded abrupt deglacial warming", Science 25 July 2014: Vol. 345 no. 6195 pp. 444-448 DOI: 10.1126/science.1252000

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/345/6195/444

Furthermore, the following linked reference indicates that before 2040 CMIP5 models indicate that the amplitude of the ENSO phases will increase, indicating that when the El Nino events return for the next 25-years they are likely to be stronger than previously experienced leading to more abrupt climate change and more abrupt ice mass loss from the WAIS.

Seon Tae Kim, Wenju Cai, Fei-Fei Jin, Agus Santoso, Lixin Wu, Eric Guilyardi & Soon-Il An, (2014), "Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2326


http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2326.html

Abstract: "The destructive environmental and socio-economic impacts of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) demand an improved understanding of how ENSO will change under future greenhouse warming. Robust projected changes in certain aspects of ENSO have been recently established. However, there is as yet no consensus on the change in the magnitude of the associated sea surface temperature (SST) variability, commonly used to represent ENSO amplitude, despite its strong effects on marine ecosystems and rainfall worldwide. Here we show that the response of ENSO SST amplitude is time-varying, with an increasing trend in ENSO amplitude before 2040, followed by a decreasing trend thereafter. We attribute the previous lack of consensus to an expectation that the trend in ENSO amplitude over the entire twenty-first century is unidirectional, and to unrealistic model dynamics of tropical Pacific SST variability. We examine these complex processes across 22 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) database, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The nine most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on the time-varying response and reveal that the non-unidirectional behaviour is linked to a longitudinal difference in the surface warming rate across the Indo-Pacific basin. Our results carry important implications for climate projections and climate adaptation pathways."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1427 on: August 03, 2014, 09:37:31 PM »
First attachment is of the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 1st, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was down to -17.66, the 30 day avg  was down slightly at -2.11, and the 90 day avg was up slightly at +0.39. The 30 and 90 day avg SOI values indicate overall atmospheric conditions reflective of both a neutral phase of the MJO and ENSO-neutral.

Second attachment is of the TAO plots for subsurface temps/anomalies and the TAO plots for ocean heat content/anomalies, updated Aug 3, which show heat content anomalies building on the dateline in association with the building downwelling Kelvin wave. Now confirmed at +2 deg c.

ASLR,

Thanks for the links, i found them interesting!

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1428 on: August 03, 2014, 10:30:07 PM »
Sea level across the Pacific has reverted to a neutral state where waters are piling up in the west and are generally shallower in the east.



Warm water volume (WWV) anomalies in the western Pacific have stabilized after dropping sharply since February (as warm water migrated east) and are now rising again.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/wwv/data/wwv_west.dat

The same goes for ocean heat content in the western Pacific, or the average temperature at 300 meters depth from 120 E to 155 W.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/wwv/data/t300_west.dat

By contrast, the eastern Pacific has seen continued low WWV and heat content anomalies. These indicators suggest a recharge is in effect. The western Pacific OHC and WWV will likely continue rising as a downwelling Kelvin wave forms.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1429 on: August 04, 2014, 05:16:04 AM »
The attached plot issued by the BoM on August 4 2014 indicates a 30-day moving average SOI value of -2.7 (which is still neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1430 on: August 04, 2014, 06:09:30 AM »
Attached is the UAlbany(courtesy Carl Schreck) GFS 30 hr forecast for precipitation and 850 hPa wind anomalies, which suggests that over the next few days we'll see weak westerly winds near the date line. This would be due to weak twin low pressure systems, likely in association with an equatorial Rossby wave(atmospheric).

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1431 on: August 04, 2014, 06:12:30 AM »
The attached video is for those who would like to view the latest ENSO/MJO update/forecast video from STORMSURF.COM, by MARK SPONSLER, updated August 3, 2014. Skip to 9:43 to view ENSO/MJO update/forecast.




Michael Hauber

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1432 on: August 04, 2014, 11:56:12 AM »
There is a lot of heat build up just north and south of the equator.  The current upwelling wave could not destroy the heat that had built up, but rather the upwelling moved the warm water north and south away from the equator (as well as west).  With a downwelling wave apparently in motion some of this warm water will be able to return to the equator.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1433 on: August 04, 2014, 04:13:27 PM »
Niño 3.4 is holding at -0.1 C. Most regions cooled over the last week. The CFSv2 model is still predicting a moderate El Niño to arrive by the northern autumn.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
02JUL2014     23.6 1.4     27.0 1.0     27.8 0.4     29.1 0.3
 09JUL2014     23.0 1.1     26.5 0.6     27.6 0.3     29.1 0.3
 16JUL2014     23.1 1.5     26.2 0.6     27.4 0.2     29.1 0.4
 23JUL2014     22.9 1.6     26.0 0.5     27.1-0.1     28.9 0.2
 30JUL2014     21.8 0.6     25.5 0.2     26.9-0.1     29.0 0.3

NOAA has made commentary on the new downwelling Kelvin wave in their weekly ENSO update:

Page 12 (about subsurface temperatures)
Quote
In early July, above-average subsurface temperatures emerged in the western Pacific at
~100-200m depth.

Positive subsurface anomalies are evident right at the surface (<50m) across the eastern Pacific, while negative anomalies persist in the central and east-central Pacific.

Page 15 (about ocean heat content)
Quote
Since early July, positive anomalies have persisted in the western Pacific.

Page 16 (about zonal winds at the 850 hPa level)
Quote
In the last week, low-level westerly wind anomalies have emerged across most of the Pacific.

Finally, now that July is over, the ONI index has been updated. The MJJ (May June July) period ONI stands at 0.1 C, which shows no change from the previous three-month season ending last month (AMJ).

NOAA is still pegging the odds of El Niño as 70% this summer, and 80% by autumn/winter.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1434 on: August 04, 2014, 09:09:48 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 4th, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was way down to -26.77, the 30 day avg was down slightly at -3.24, and the 90 day avg was up slightly at +0.49. The recent negative daily SOI values are attributable to daily/weekly weather patterns affecting SLP at Darwin and Tahiti, while the 30 and 90 day avg SOI values indicate overall atmospheric conditions reflective of both a neutral phase of the MJO and ENSO-neutral.

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1435 on: August 05, 2014, 02:33:46 AM »
The attached BoM plot issued August 5 2014 indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -3.4 (and thus is still neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1436 on: August 05, 2014, 03:51:47 PM »
The BoM Nino 1, 2, 3, & 4 indices, for the week ending August 3 2014 are attached, respectively, and all values are down (as was indicated by NOAA's values yesterday):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1437 on: August 05, 2014, 03:55:12 PM »
As was the case with the NOAA data yesterday, the first attached BoM plot of the Nino3.4 index,  for the week ending August 3 2014, indicates a value unchanged from late week of +0.2.

The second attached image is of BoM's August 3 2014 weekly value for the IOD which is still negative (a condition that tends to suppress the magnitude of El Nino events):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1438 on: August 05, 2014, 10:31:09 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 5th, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was down to -25.55, the 30 day avg  was down at -4.51, and the 90 day avg was down slightly at +0.42. The recent negative daily SOI values are attributable to daily/weekly weather patterns affecting SLP at Darwin and Tahiti, while the 30 and 90 day avg SOI values indicate overall atmospheric conditions reflective of both a neutral phase of the MJO and ENSO-neutral.

EDIT: changed the arrow next to the daily value for Aug 5. Should've been red rather than green. Corrected.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2014, 10:01:28 PM by bigB »

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1439 on: August 06, 2014, 02:08:12 AM »
The following indicates that the BoM 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -4.2 (and thus is still neutral):

20140706,20140804,-4.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1440 on: August 06, 2014, 03:41:44 PM »
The first attached NOAA image (issued August 6 2014) indicates that not only has the Equatorial Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Anomalies bottomed-out, it is now headed up.

The second attached NOAA image of the Equatorial Pacific Subsurface Temperature Anomalies for August 1 2014, indicates that a new EKW is clearly moving eastward; which would appear to possibly vindicate NOAA's projections of at least a weak El Nino event by Fall of 2014.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1441 on: August 06, 2014, 10:07:02 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 6th, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was down to -18.15, the 30 day avg  was down at -5.48, and the 90 day avg was down slightly at +0.35. The recent negative daily SOI values are attributable to daily/weekly weather patterns affecting SLP at Darwin and Tahiti, while the 30 and 90 day avg SOI values indicate atmospheric conditions reflective of both a neutral phase of the MJO and ENSO-neutral. According to the latest runs by GFS models, values for the 30 day avg may  continue dropping for the next day or two. Then by August 10-12, strong negative daily SOI values will be leaving the 30 day avg. At the same time, weak positive daily SOI values are expected to be entering the 30 day avg. This should cause the 30 day avg to rise again(become less negative) during that time period. Beyond August 12, the SOI 30 day avg may stabilize, or not. Anything beyond 4-5 days is too far into the future to make an accurate forecast when it comes to the SOI. Almost all short and long range models(MJO phase diagrams, EWP V-potential, OLR maps, SLP/precip charts, 850-hPa wind anomalies/precip, etc..), suggest weak easterly wind/anomalies in association with the inactive/borderline neutral phase of the MJO (Side Note: If daily/weekly weather patterns were not affecting SLP at Darwin or Tahiti, one would expect weak positive/neutral daily SOI values to coincide with a weak inactive/neutral phase of the MJO) will be in control of the Maritime Continent, Western Pacific, and eventually the Central Pacific in the coming weeks. Most models suggest this pattern(basically suppressed convection) is now in the Western Pacific and will remain in control for the next 2 weeks as it crosses the Pacific. This should put a damper on the recent enhanced tropical activity seen as of late, but not snuff it out completely. Just a slow down. OLR and EWP forecasts, suggest a small area of enhanced convection will remain in the far Eastern Pacific through early/mid next week. Overall, it appears this will be another critical time in the evolution of this possibly developing El Nino event. Please Note: This is just a forecast and relies heavily on the accuracy of weather forecast models. Meaning, this is subject to change and not for certain.

Sleepy,

Bad weather and 13-15 ft waves or bigger headed for Hawaii from Iselle. Then possible weather and more waves from Julio. The Islands should cause the TC's to fall apart as they approach(think back to Flossie last year). Hopefully, everything remains as minimal as it looks right now and all ends up ok.

EDIT: Changed the arrow next to the daily value for Aug 6. Should've been red rather than green. Corrected.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2014, 09:59:19 PM by bigB »

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1442 on: August 07, 2014, 03:22:04 AM »
The first attached image, created using images from Surfline.com of the GFS wind forecast for Hawaii, shows Iselle getting shredded as she impacts and passes over the big island of Hawaii(according to reputable models, Iselle is expected to approach the big island of Hawaii as a CAT 1 or a strong tropical storm). Likely reducing her into a weak tropical storm or depression. She could then restrengthen after clearing the islands, but forecast models are not suggesting any serious restrengthening at this time. Also, Julio is shown moving in right behind his big sister Iselle, but Julio is expected to pass north of Hawaii with only the outer wind field projected to impact the islands at this time. HOPEFULLY, Iselle does not continue to restrengthen and Julio does indeed pass to the north. Regardless, Hawaii looks to be in for a rough 4-5 days.

The second attached image from the NHC of the latest visible satellite imagery, shows hurricanes Genevieve, Iselle, Julio, and an area of disturbed weather with a 30% chance of development. Very active east and central pacific!

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1443 on: August 07, 2014, 03:25:06 AM »
Attached is the 30-day moving average SOI plot issued by the BoM on August 7 2014 (Sydney time), with a value that has drifted down to -5.7 (and thus is still neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1444 on: August 07, 2014, 09:37:37 PM »
The first attached image is of the the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 7th, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was up -9.83, the 30 day avg  was down at -5.98, and the 90 day avg was down slightly at +0.19. The recent negative daily SOI values are attributable to daily/weekly weather patterns affecting SLP at Darwin and Tahiti, while the 30 and 90 day avg SOI values indicate atmospheric conditions reflective of both a neutral phase of the MJO and ENSO-neutral.

The Second attached image is the CICS-NC(courtesy Carl Shreck) paneled map of the MJO forecast, which shows a weak inactive phase of the MJO is currently moving through the Western Pacific and is projected to continue pushing east while weakening. Eventually making it to the Eastern Pacific by about August 20. Around that time, a new very weak active phase of the MJO is projected to begin pushing east out of the Indian ocean, over the Maritime continents, and into the Western Pacific. Overall, this MJO pattern appears very weak and can almost be considered borderline neutral.

The third attached image is the UAlbany(courtesy Carl Shreck) 30 day time/longitude plot of zonal wind anomalies between 5N-5S, which suggests that by August 12, weak easterly anomalies are to take over the Western Pacific as the inactive phase of the MJO moves through this region. Neutral anomalies are projected to remain in control over the Central an Eastern Pacific through August 14.

The fourth attached image is from the NHC of the latest visible satellite imagery, which shows hurricanes Genevieve, Iselle, and Julio. Iselle is creeping ever closer to Hawaii. Iselle is still forecast to impact the big island as a CAT 1 or strong tropical storm(still a dangerous scenario nonetheless). Julio is still forecast to pass to the north. Iselle will get torn up as she impacts the big island, likely weakening her significantly. She is expected to become a remnant low a day or two after clearing the islands. Interesting note, Genevieve is now a CAT 5. As of now and for the immediate future(at least through the next 5 days), NO more TC's are expected to form other than what already has.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1445 on: August 07, 2014, 09:53:42 PM »
While all of the storms moving northward from the Eastern Tropical Pacific are too far north to contribute WWBs to contribute to an EKW; still these storm are conveying heat into the Central, and North, Pacific Ocean which will increase the PDO, which will increase the chances of future El Nino events over the coming months, and years (note for the past approximately 15 years, the North Atlantic has been warming faster than the North Pacific, but GCM projections indicate that the North Pacific should catch-up with the North Atlantic over the next 25 years):

See also:
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/hurricane-22-years-aiming-hawaii-24884722
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1446 on: August 08, 2014, 12:33:44 AM »
The attached image from the NHC of the latest visible satellite imagery, suggests hurricane Iselle is weakening as she approaches the Hawaiian islands. Exactly as expected. According to the latest advisory(#31) from the CPHC, issued at 11 am HST on August 7, Iselle is barely hanging on to hurricane status and is very likely to impact the big island of Hawaii as a strong tropical storm. STILL, NOT TO BE TAKEN LIGHTLY. Aside from the storm surge, wind, and rain, Hurricane Iselle has had a captured fetch(constant wind blowing over an area of water in your direction while the source of that fetch is also moving in your direction) aimed at the islands for 3-4 days now. This will provide the east and south facing shores with very large damaging surf. 10-15 ft faces with 18 ft sets not out of the question. Rare for Hawaii to see surf this large, this time of year, and from this direction, especially east facing shores. Provided is a link to the CPHC's latest advisory for those interested. This would appear to be one of the first major consequence tied to the developing conditions associated with the possible 2014 El Nino. Or not, but i think so!

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/ISELLE.php

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1447 on: August 08, 2014, 12:37:13 AM »
Per the following linked announcement, on August 7, 2014, NOAA states that: "The chance of El Nino has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1448 on: August 08, 2014, 02:14:15 AM »
Per the following data, BoM's 30-day moving average SOI value issued August 8 2014 is: -5.8 (and thus is still neutral):

20140708,20140806,-5.8

Here is the plot:
« Last Edit: August 08, 2014, 05:20:04 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1449 on: August 08, 2014, 04:52:26 AM »
ISELLE UPDATE: According to the latest advisory, issued by the CPHC at 5 pm HST, it appears Iselle may indeed make landfall as a (borderline) CAT 1 hurricane with max sustained winds of 75 mph. Whether Iselle is a borderline Cat 1 or a strong tropical storm(difference of only a few mph max sustained winds), the danger level is virtually the same. The biggest issue will be the combination of 12-24 inches of rain, 75 mph wind, and large 10-15 ft occasional 18 ft damaging surf occurring all at the same time. Also, after doing some research, I found that most of the buildings and infrastructure on the big island of Hawaii were not designed to withstand a direct or near direct hit from a TC of this magnitude. I'm hoping for the best.... Link below to latest advisory from the CPHC.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/ISELLE.php