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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1600 on: September 11, 2014, 04:43:56 PM »
The attached ECMM - MJO forecast issued Sept 11 2014, indicates that the probability of the MJO triggering an El Nino event during its current cycle is diminishing (but this probability many change one way or the other in the next few days):
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1601 on: September 11, 2014, 08:12:24 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of September 11th, the daily SOI value was up to -5.70, the 30 day avg was up to -9.53, and the 90 day avg was down to –7.02(NOTE: I believe 2010 was the last time I saw the 90 day avg at or below -7). This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies. GFS models are calling for a difference in SLP between Darwin and Tahiti, which should result in negative daily SOI values through the rest of this week and POSSIBLY into early next week. However, since negative daily SOI values entering the 30 day avg are just replacing negative daily SOI values leaving the 30 day avg, I suspect that the 30 day avg will likely just kind of bounce around near its current value. In order to continue dropping, the daily values entering the 30 day avg must be more negative than those that are leaving. The forecast does suggest this is possible, so we'll see. On the other hand, the 90 day avg SOI values are likely to continue dropping for a bit longer as there are still old positive daily SOI values that haven’t left the 90 day avg time period yet. A less favorable SLP pattern may set up for mid-late next week. Too early to say with any accuracy.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1602 on: September 12, 2014, 01:17:59 AM »
Per the following data issued by the BoM on Sept 12 2014 (Sydney time), the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -10.1:

20140812,20140910,-10.1

edit: here is the plot
« Last Edit: September 12, 2014, 02:32:10 AM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1603 on: September 12, 2014, 02:30:13 AM »
The attached NOAA plot of the Equatorial Pacific Subsurface Temperature Anomalies for Sept 5,2014 shows that the current EKW is slowly continuing to develop:
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1604 on: September 12, 2014, 04:17:30 PM »
According to the first attached Ensemble GFS - MJO forecast, the chances of the active phase of the MJO favorably enhancing the chance of an El Nino event on this phase of its oscillation are continuing to diminish.  Unless the atmosphere changes to more favorable conditions soon, we can expect the Eq. Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly (see second attachment) to peak in the next few weeks and then to begin to decay.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1605 on: September 12, 2014, 07:45:58 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of September 12th, the daily SOI value was down to -12.36, the 30 day avg was down slightly to -9.67, and the 90 day avg was down to –7.45. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1606 on: September 13, 2014, 01:24:11 AM »
Per the following data issued by the BoM on Sept 13 2014 (Sydney time), the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -10.8:

20140813,20140911,-10.8

edit: Here is the plot.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2014, 04:25:22 AM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1607 on: September 13, 2014, 04:45:20 PM »
While the ECMM - MJO forecasts have frequently been more bullish than other forecasts, it has also shown considerable skill in the one week forecast window.  The attached ECMM - MJO forecast issued Sept 13 2014 shows a significantly increased chance that over the next week the active phase of the MJO will both strengthen and linger around the International Dateline.  We will soon see what actually develops over the next week.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1608 on: September 13, 2014, 04:55:15 PM »
The two attached plots from the Albany University indicate the possibility that the Walker Cell might change into a pattern more favorable for an El Nino event within the next few days, to the next week, or more.  The first attached plot show a mild westerly surface wind anomaly just east of the International Dateline; while the second attached plot indicates the possibility of a relatively strong easterly wind pattern at 200-hPa just west of the International Dateline.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1609 on: September 13, 2014, 05:08:40 PM »
The information at the following KIWI link (and associated plot of the SPCZ forecast from Sept to November 2014, issued on Sept 4 2014), indicates that the SPCZ is forecast to have stronger than normal activity during this period (in its normal location as indicated in the plot); however, the area of greatest uncertainty (with regard to location of strong convective activity) is east of the International Dateline.  Thus it is conceivable that if the MJO lingers east of the International Dateline long enough, it could develop sufficient local storm activity to shift (or not) the location of the SPCZ towards the International Dateline, this might significantly increase the chances of an El Nino event developing during the boreal Fall (austral Spring):

http://www.niwa.co.nz/island-climate-update-168-september-2014/south-pacific-convergence-zone-forecast-september-to-november-2014

The caption for the image is: "The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eight climate models. The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every five degrees of longitude. The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1610 on: September 13, 2014, 09:42:09 PM »
Provided in the 1st attachment are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of September 13th, the daily SOI value was down to -17.47, the 30 day avg was down slightly to -9.80, and the 90 day avg was down to –7.76. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies. According to the latest runs by GFS models, the current SLP pattern at Darwin and Tahiti is expected to continue for the next several days, with a difference in SLP between the two regions that should result in weak-moderate daily SOI values. The 30 day avg has not changed much over that past few days, but it has been slowly dropping as the daily SOI values entering the 30 day avg have been slightly more negative than those that are leaving. If the forecast holds up, the 30 day avg is likely to either continue slowly dropping or bounce around near what it currently is. As for the the 90 day avg, its about to move through a cluster of weak negative daily SOI values leaving the 90 day avg time period. Therefore, it will likely continue to drop, but at a slightly slower rate than it has been as of late. Regardless, the 30 day avg has now been in negative territory for just under 11 weeks, with values at or below -8 for almost 4 weeks. Also, the 90 day avg has now basically reached -8. That's probably of the most significance here. If this trend continues for even a few more weeks, then it may start to become safe to say that the SOI is starting to indicate at least weak El Nino conditions. Think about it, even the strong back to back active phases of the MJO earlier this year(Jan-Apr) were not enough drop the 90 day avg to at or below -8, which is usually the only other source of prolonged negative daily SOI values(consecutive negative daily SOI values for longer than a few weeks). Normal daily weather patterns certainly could not drop the 90 day avg to at or below -8. Now consider that even with suppressed convection over the Western Pacific late August early September, high pressure passing south of Tahiti multiple times, and periods where the SPCZ was absent or weak, we are still seeing day after day of negative daily SOI values. In the Past 40 days we've only seen 2 positive daily SOI values that were basically near 0.0. You have to start to wonder, if its not the MJO, daily weather patterns, etc... then what is it? Whats lurking in the background helping cause tropical weather patterns favor negative daily SOI values? I believe that it might just possibly be the beginnings of weak El Nino conditions manifesting in the SOI(or not). The fact that the MJO signal is weak, COULD be another sign that ENSO is deepening and beginning to take over and drive tropical weather patterns in the equatorial Pacific. This is just my opinion.

Included in the 2nd attachment are the TAO plots for zonal wind/anomalies(TOP ), the TAO plots for SST/anomalies(CENTER), and the TAO plots for subsurface temps/anomalies(BOTTOM). Data for all plots is valid through Sep 12th. The data shown in the attached plots suggest to me that we are about to see a slight warm up across the Central and Eastern equatorial Pacific in the coming weeks. Currently, there is no cool water of any concern in the equatorial Pacific between 140E and 95W, both at depth or on the surface. This means that the last of the cool water from the upwelling Kelvin wave phase is all but gone and the warm subsurface water from our current downwelling Kelvin wave is free to begin its surfacing process(with no cooler denser water blocking or slowing it down). As mentioned by ASLR, upper ocean heat anomalies appear to have peaked or are near peaking and will likely begin decreasing, which is a sign that warm subsurface water is about to move to the surface. This may actually not be such a bad thing as we need warm water to surface and fill in the Nino 3.4 region. This would likely help push the atmosphere further in the right direction. Once this happens and a positive feedback loop begins to develop, things should start happening more quickly. In the 2 center plots, notice what appears to be warm SSTA already beginning to fill in the Nino 3.4 region, likely due to a mixture of warm water from our new Kelvin wave beginning to seep to the surface and weak westerly wind anomalies. Looking at the very bottom plot, notice that in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, there is a very thin layer of near neutral ocean temp anomalies. If you look at the zonal wind anomalies in the 2nd plot from the top, you will see weak easterly anomalies in that region. This is likely causing some local upwelling, but with weak westerly anomalies forecast to pick up in that region and a Kelvin wave set to surface very soon, we should see that area warm up as well. The NOAA weekly ENSO update issued  tomorrow may not reflect this warm up yet as this is a relatively recent development(last 3-4 days), but I suspect that maybe in the NOAA weekly ENSO update on September 22. I guess we'll see

« Last Edit: September 14, 2014, 02:30:23 AM by bigB »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1611 on: September 14, 2014, 03:48:27 AM »
The attached plot of the BoM 30-day moving average SOI. issued today, indicates that the index has dropped down wot -10.9
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1612 on: September 14, 2014, 05:00:56 AM »
I figured Lord M Vader would appreciate this excerpt as it reflects exactly what he has been proposing for the last few months. The following is a small excerpt from STORMSURF.COM, of the MJO/ENSO update for September 13, 2014; by MARK SPONSLER:

“...Projections from the monthly CFSv2 model run 9/13 have stabilized and in an interesting way. It suggests water temps building to +0.5 deg C by early Oct peaking at +0.9 deg C in Nov (down from the +1.75 deg C predicted in May and then revised down to +1.55 deg C predicted in early July), but the real interesting part is that water temps are now to hold solid into June 2015. This suggests that perhaps were are moving towards a multi year warm event...

Gray-Wolf

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1613 on: September 14, 2014, 02:48:07 PM »
I have also suggested the 'double whammy ' event taking place. It , in a very 'layman's' way of looking at things is due to the impact of the enhanced Trades and the imbalance that drives them coupled with the tolerances of the system?

The enhanced trades hold the power to hold back the warm pool in the west Pacific at an 'enhanced height but this must have a limit ( strength of the wind equals max height of the warm pool) so any faltering in the trades allows for an uncoupled outflow of the warm pool. Over the recent winter /springs we have seen both forecast any attempts to form of ninos on the strength of this 'backslosh' from the warm pool. I believe that the imbalance between the two tropical ocean basins are at there lowest just after northern winter solstice. Trades fall light and a KW 'sloshes' back East.

Should this pattern hold true then we will see the same again occur in jan/mar of 2015 but this time that event may well be superimposed on top of an existing warm plume/weak Nino across the equatorial waters.

This 'reinforcement' of any existing warmth may , in its turn, prove enough to then bully the atmosphere into further cooperation by keeping any temperature imbalance between the basins to a min.

The worry has to be that this , in its turn, will lessen the trades to the point that the I.P.O. is able to turn positive ( surface warming phase) and that this in its turn swings PDO fully positive.

Nature abhors imbalance and She will do her best to redress any such imbalance. As the planet warms we will see many such expressions of nature trying to keep stable systems that are out of balance until such a point that such efforts become redundant and the system steps up to a higher level. To me the 'hiatus period' has been Natures best shot a riding out a period of temporary warming and keep things stable. She now accepts this is not 'temporary' but permanent and so will flip to the next highest climate state.......until this too becomes unstable and we see her battle to keep things 'stable' again?

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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1614 on: September 14, 2014, 06:02:52 PM »
To add some color commentary to bigB's and Grey-Wolf's posts, the first attached image shows the CFSv2 Sept 14 2014 Nino3.4 forecast, with the newest ensemble of forecast members shown in blue; which indeed show an increasing likelihood of a moderate El Nino event this boreal Fall.

The second attached image show's NOAA's estimate of the Equatorial Pacific Subsurface Temperature Anomalies for Sept 10 2014, indicating that not only is the current EKW (Equatorial Kelvin Wave) continuing to gather strength, but that it is also surfacing relatively quickly, which could indeed push the Nino3.4 over +0.5 by the beginning of October (as indicated in the CFSv2 forecast).

The third image of NOAA's Equatorial Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Anomalies, circa Sept 14 2014, indicates that this index is still growing slowly (and has not peaked yet), but this index indicates that it is important for the atmosphere to begin reinforcing the current EKW.

The fourth image of the ECMM - MJO forecast issued Sept 14 2014, indicates that forecast of the active phase of the MJO is less bullish than yesterday, and furthermore, I do not see any indication in the next week of either a strengthening SPCZ or for any WBB events.

This indicates to me that we are indeed in a critical period, which will determine whether a weak to moderate El Nino event happens this year (or not); however, it appears that the ocean and the atmosphere are not yet in sync, and we will likely need to wait another couple of weeks for the true nature of the situation to reveal itself.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2014, 06:10:04 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1615 on: September 14, 2014, 09:01:48 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of September 14th, the daily SOI value was up at -14.74, the 30 day avg held at -9.80, and the 90 day avg was down slightly at –7.88. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies. I agree with ASLR, there is no clear sign that the atmosphere and ocean are officially linked and that we need a few more weeks to see how things evolve, but it appears that this is beginning to happen. A good analogy of how i see it, would be, the atmosphere and ocean are reaching out to shake hands but are currently not quite close enough to get a solid grip and therefore are just touching fingertips, but a warm up in the Nino 3.4 region would likely push the atmosphere and ocean close enough to finally get a solid grip and shake hands. In surfing, a lot of the time(not always) before we get a big swell, we get whats called a "primer" storm, which roughs up the oceans surface. Then right behind that storm comes another storm, which will actually generate a much larger swell. This is because the wind from the first storm will have roughed up the smooth seas, providing the wind from the next storm with something to grab onto/more traction, transferring more wind energy to the oceans surface, and generating larger surf. I believe the last kelvin wave "primed" conditions for our next kelvin wave. We'll see what happens. You can never really be sure until it happens. On another note, Major hurricane Odile is currently spinning in the Eastern Pacific, threatening life and property for many regions throughout Baja and the the Southwestern U.S. More on that later.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1616 on: September 15, 2014, 03:10:16 AM »
This first Attachment is the EMC high resolution SSTA image for Sep 14, which shows a noticeable warm in the Nino 3.4 region. The approximate location of the Nino 3.4 region has been marked with a black box.(NOTE: I have been closely monitoring data from this site on daily basis and in the past 3 days it has markedly warmed up, increasing slightly each day). The NOAA weekly ENSO update, issued tomorrow, may or may not reflect this yet, but confidence is increasing that next weeks update will.

The Second attachment is the latest GOES satellite imagery from NOAA's SPSD, which shows a very very dangerous CAT 3 Odile just hours from possibly making landfall somewhere in the vicinity of Cabo San Lucas, which is located on the southern tip of the Baja peninsula. The current track guidance forecast issued by the NHC at 2 pm PDT, suggests that the eye of Odile is to pass just west/off shore of Cabo San Lucas. However, since then, Odile's forward motion has been trending more northerly and thus, we may very unfortunately see Odile make landfall around Cabo or at least get very close. The next full advisory issued by the NHC at 8 pm PDT, should provide the answer.

TROPICAL UPDATE: as of 9:30 PM PDT on September 14, CAT 3 Odile appears to be making landfall near or over Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of Baja. see third attached image.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2014, 06:28:55 AM by bigB »

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1617 on: September 15, 2014, 03:39:28 AM »
The attached video is for those who would like to view the latest ENSO/MJO update/forecast video from STORMSURF.COM, by MARK SPONSLER, updated September 14, 2014. Skip to 13:05 to view ENSO/MJO update/forecast.



AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1618 on: September 15, 2014, 04:04:07 AM »
Attached is the BoM 30-day moving average SOI, issued Sept 15 2014, indicating current value of -11:
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1619 on: September 15, 2014, 03:37:59 PM »
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 13AUG2014     21.9 1.2     25.5 0.5     26.9 0.0     29.0 0.4
 20AUG2014     22.1 1.4     25.5 0.5     27.1 0.3     29.1 0.4
 27AUG2014     21.3 0.8     25.4 0.4     27.2 0.4     29.2 0.5
 03SEP2014     21.7 1.2     25.3 0.4     27.1 0.4     29.2 0.5
 10SEP2014     21.1 0.7     25.3 0.4     27.3 0.5     29.4 0.7

Back into weak El Niño conditions for Niño 3.4.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1620 on: September 15, 2014, 08:56:03 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of September 15th, the daily SOI value was up slightly at -13.19, the 30 day avg was down at -10.02, and the 90 day avg was down slightly at –7.95. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1621 on: September 15, 2014, 11:25:29 PM »
The first image is a satellite photo taken today indicating a weak to moderate SPCZ today; while the second, third and fourth attached images are WunderMap forecasts for Sept 16, 17 and 21, respectively, that indicate that the SPCZ will be in the weak to moderate range for at least the next week (which should help with the formation of weak to moderate westerly winds near the International Dateline):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1622 on: September 15, 2014, 11:36:07 PM »
The attached NOAA image of the Equatorial Pacific SSTA for Sept 15 2014, indicates that we can expect that the Nino 3.4 will likely increase next week:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1623 on: September 16, 2014, 01:36:58 AM »
Per the following data issued by the BoM on Sept 16 2014 (Sydney time) the 30-day moving average SOI value has dropped down to -11.2:

20140816,20140914,-11.2

edit: here is the plot
« Last Edit: September 16, 2014, 04:31:11 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1624 on: September 16, 2014, 04:35:16 PM »
The attached Nino3.4 and IOD plots, respectively, issued by the BoM for the week ending Sept 14 2014, are moving in the opposite direction  as the information provide yesterday by NOAA (ie the BoM data is less favorable for an El Nino event), and the first plot indicates that the Nino3.4 has moved down to +0.31:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1625 on: September 16, 2014, 04:38:02 PM »
Attached are the Nino 1, 2, 3, & 4 indices, respectively, issued by the BoM for the week ending Sept 14 2014.  All of these indices (besides the Nino 4 index) are less favorable than last week for the possible development of an El Nino this boreal Fall:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1626 on: September 16, 2014, 04:40:57 PM »
The attached ECMM - MJO forecast indicates that there is little chance that the active phase of the MJO will have any impact on a possible El Nino event, during its current cycle.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1627 on: September 17, 2014, 01:25:34 AM »
Per the following data issued by the BoM on Sept 17 2014, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -11.3:

20140817,20140915,-11.3
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1628 on: September 17, 2014, 08:25:32 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of September 17th, the daily SOI value was up at -0.65, the 30 day avg was up slightly at -10.12, and the 90 day avg was up slightly at –7.88. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies. GFS models for SLP and precipitation are currently exhibiting a large amount of uncertainty in the 7 day forecast. Therefore, until models get a better handle on things its hard to say with any accuracy just how things will play out.

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1629 on: September 18, 2014, 02:10:11 AM »
Per the attached 30-day moving average SOI plot issued by the BoM on Sept 18 2014, the index has drifted up to -10.8:
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1630 on: September 18, 2014, 07:53:51 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of September 18th, the daily SOI value was down at -7.84, the 30 day avg was up slightly at -10.02, and the 90 day avg was down slightly at –7.96. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies. Models have come into better agreement this morning but the 7 day forecast still seems a bit uncertain. Based on current observations and forecasts, I suspect that the SLP pattern at Darwin and Tahiti will remain favorable through early next week, with a difference in SLP between the two regions that should result in weak-moderate negative daily SOI values.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1631 on: September 19, 2014, 02:22:28 AM »
Per the attached plot of the BoM 30-day moving average SOI, issued Sept 19 2014, the index has drifted up to -10.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1632 on: September 19, 2014, 04:38:46 PM »
All of the following data supports the idea that the current EKW is stating to weaken, and that unless that atmosphere provides more support by the beginning of Oct, then the chances of an El Nino event this boreal Fall are significantly reduced.

The first attached image shows that the Equatorial Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Anomalies (issued by NOAA circa Sept 19 2014) has peaked and is now declining.

The second attached image shows that the Equatorial Pacific Subsurface Temperature Anomalies plot (issued by NOAA for Sept 15 2014) are beginning to weaken and that the associated SSTA in the Nino3.4 region are also weakening.

The third attached image by NOAA of the GFS -MJO forecast for Sept 19 2014, indicates that the MJO is of no consequence.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1633 on: September 19, 2014, 08:37:41 PM »
BigB: "I figured Lord M Vader would appreciate this excerpt as it reflects exactly what he has been proposing for the last few months. The following is a small excerpt from STORMSURF.COM, of the MJO/ENSO update for September 13, 2014; by MARK SPONSLER:

“...Projections from the monthly CFSv2 model run 9/13 have stabilized and in an interesting way. It suggests water temps building to +0.5 deg C by early Oct peaking at +0.9 deg C in Nov (down from the +1.75 deg C predicted in May and then revised down to +1.55 deg C predicted in early July), but the real interesting part is that water temps are now to hold solid into June 2015. This suggests that perhaps were are moving towards a multi year warm event...”"

This is very appreciating! 8)



Even more interesting than Nino34-index is that CFSv2 foresees higher values for both Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 by June 2015. This could be indicative that if we're not seeing a true El Niño this fall or a modoki one the odds for a rather strong one by 2015 should be pretty good as the atmosphere sooner or later should respond to the oceans.



Given that CFSv2 is right in its forecast I think this would imply a WWB evolving early next year will have much better chance to put us into a really big El Niño event.

Also, the North Pacific high pressure dome seems to finally have been broken apart pretty well. Though, there is still a huge amount of warm water to be exported east if the west-east temperature gradient is going to be established. Some export have already occurred and the area around Indonesia and Australia are now having SSTs below average. However, there is still SSTs warmer than average in the Northwestern Pacific that has to be transferred eastward. Once that happens I think we'll see a domino effect to take place.

Otherwise, the oceans are behaving as we should expect them to do: high TC activity in EPAC and low in Atlantic basin.

I notice that there is some mildly westerlies in WPAC according to PMEL/TAO. CFSv2 latest forecast shows a possibility for good westerlies to evolve by the end of September and beginning of October. The bad sign is that there also may be some good easterlies too.

In addition, August 2014 was ranked as the warmest on record according to NOAA and GISS NASA preliminary table data. From this we can conclude that there is a reasonable chance that 2014 will end up as the warmest year on record. Given CFSv2 forecast hinting of a solid warm half of 2015 there should be a decent possibility that 2015 will be warmer than 2014. And if a Goliath El Niño develops next year we can be almost 100% sure that 2016 will smash both 2014 and 2015 big time!! After that, 2017 should be a La Niña year being somewhat cooler. But my personal opinion is that we'll soon enter a new regime of global temperatures and I don't see any year from 2020 and onward to be significantly cooler than any of this decades year.

Oh, by the way: Long Paddock shows that 90 day average SOI have now dropped to -8,13. Let's see if this trend continues...

What do you think guys? 8)

TheWeatherMan

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1634 on: September 19, 2014, 09:29:15 PM »
Hey LMV,

Granted ENSO is not my area of expertise, but I would think a 2003-2005 scenario is on the table, which is perhaps a weak nino followed by a moderate one.  Big El Ninos are obviously very difficult to achieve in a -PDO regime.  There is some evidence that we may have flipped +PDO, but I would like to see a few years of degraded trade winds before that is truly declared.


bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1635 on: September 19, 2014, 09:49:21 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of September 19th, the daily SOI value was down at -10.16, the 30 day avg was up slightly at -9.93, and the 90 day avg was down slightly at –8.13. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1636 on: September 20, 2014, 01:14:18 AM »
In Reply #1645 I posted a plot issued by the BoM for the Nino 3.4 index for the week ending Sept 14 2014, which indicated a Nino 3.4 value of +0.31; however, since that time the BoM has revised their Nino 3.4 evaluation for the week ending Sept 14 2014 upward to + 0.48, as indicated in the first attached plot.

Furthermore, the BoM has updated their Nino 3.4 model comparison graphs using projections issued in September for the months of Oct 2014, Dec 2014 and Feb 2015, as indicated in the second, third and fourth attached images, respectively.  These comparison plots show that the BoM is conservative when it comes to projecting possible El Nino events.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1637 on: September 20, 2014, 01:17:44 AM »
The following data issued by the BoM on Sept 20 2014 (Sydney time) indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI value has drifted down to -10.4:

20140820,20140918,-10.4
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Michael Hauber

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1638 on: September 20, 2014, 02:25:32 AM »
Although ocean heat content has temporarily peaked one Kelvin wave is still going and should be surfacing in the far east shortly.

There appears to have been a further patch of westerly winds near Australia - and while not enough to be an official westerly wind burst is probably good for causing another small Kelvin wave to keep things going.  However there is a mix of enhanced easterly wind still happening so current trade winds are not in generally westerly enough to support more than a weak El Nino in my opinion.

Although heat content along the equator is pretty mediocre there is a lot of heat just north and south of the equator.  If a strong Kelvin wave does come along I think this warm water will help the equatorial region to warm more than otherwise expected.

I have been speculating that the switch from a strong westerly regime that started speculation of a super el nino to a mixed regime that put the el nino in 'pause' mode may have been due to favourable conditions in the NH and unfavourable (for El Nino) in the SH.  As the ITCZ switched hemispheres I'm guessing the hemisphere opposite to the ITCZ may have more influence on ENSO development as that is the hemisphere that has the high pressure belt influencing the trade winds over the equator.  I've seen the first signs of tropical activity starting up off NE Australia so we will see if my theory is correct.  If so there is the potential for a strong westerly wind burst to occur in the period when SH activity starts up and NH activity is still going strong, giving the potential for dual tropical systems either side of the equator.

The forecast for this el nino to not weaken early in the new year is interesting.  This is highly unusual as even with multi-year events such as 91-95 and 02-07 el nino has still waned significantly early in the year to revive later in the year, and historically nearly all enso events both warm and cool peak near the new year.  86/87/88 is a notable exception where a weak el nino in 86/87 continued to build all through 87 to make a strong event in 87/88.  Something to watch, but as this forecast is still a way out, and somewhat against historical precedent I would not yet say that it is a likely outcome.

Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1639 on: September 20, 2014, 02:30:33 AM »
Attached are the latest TAO plots of subsurface tepms/anomalies, data valid through Sep 18, which shows a noticeable change in the configuration of subsurface temp anomalies. This is due to the latest addition of subsurface sensors at 140W now providing actual data rather than models having to try and fill in the gaps with modeled data. Recent TAO data suggests that the bulk of warm subsurface water across the Central/Eastern Equatorial Pacific may not be as large as models had previously suggested, but it still appears that a weak trickle of warm water is downwelling in the Western Equatorial Pacific and feeding the tail end of our latest Kelvin wave, which is currently on the verge of beginning to surface in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific. While the current Kelvin wave is only modest in size and strength, it is still enough to warm SSTA above what they currently are, likely just above the Nino threshold(which is above +0.5 deg c in the Nino 3.4 region according to NOAA). Also, something that has recently caught my attention is what appears to be a small pocket of cool subsurface temp anomalies building under the Central Pacific. This is likely due to the lack of stronger westerly winds/anomalies as of late. We'll need to keep a close eye on this over the next several days and see how it evolves. It could be a cause for a very small amount of concern, but its likely too early to know just yet. Without an atmospheric feedback loop or at least moderate westerly wind anomalies in the Kelvin wave generation area within the next 2-3 weeks, this cool subsurface pocket could begin to build and block/cut off the flow of warm subsurface water from west to east(before it itself begins to surface in a few months as the next cool upwelling Kelvin wave). As it stands right now, the current Kelvin wave should provide about 5-7(rough estimate) weeks worth of warm water once it begins to surface and it WILL surface. It seems to me that at the very worst case scenario, 2014 will see El Nino “like” conditions, but at this time, all signs seem to point towards at least a weak El Nino, possibly building into a multi year warm event. This is a possible outcome that a few of us in this thread are really starting to entertain. The TAO subsurface sensors at 140W came back online about 2 days ago. In the past few months, at least some of the subsurface sensors at 180, 140W, and 125W have come back online. As more subsurface sensors come back online, models will begin to provide a much more clear and accurate picture of whats really going on. The NDBC appears to be following through with their claims to have the TAO buoy array back up to 80-90% operational by December 2014. See the progress being made in the second attachment, which shows that TAO data return has recently increased  to at least 65%(up from below 35-40 % earlier this year). This means that TAO data has become much more reliable.


« Last Edit: September 20, 2014, 07:08:18 AM by bigB »

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1640 on: September 20, 2014, 03:10:31 AM »
The attached TAO plots of zonal wind/anomalies from 2011 through mid Sep 2014, shows that over the past 3.5+ years easterly winds/enhanced trades in the Western/Central equatorial Pacific have been getting progressively weaker and shorter in duration, while westerly winds/relaxed trades have been getting progressively stronger and longer in duration. Notice that Westerly winds have also been shifting further and further towards the east over time. At least one thing that this shows is the death of La Nina and a zonal wind pattern that appears to be gradually trending towards conditions that are favorable to the development of El Nino.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1641 on: September 20, 2014, 08:15:29 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of September 20th, the daily SOI value was up to -5.86, the 30 day avg was up slightly to -9.81, and the 90 day avg was down slightly at –8.14. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with weak El Nino like tendencies.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1642 on: September 21, 2014, 03:31:33 AM »
The following plot issued by the BoM on Sept 21 2014 indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -9.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1643 on: September 21, 2014, 09:35:35 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of September 21st, the daily SOI value was down slightly at -6.06, the 30 day avg was up slightly to -9.65, and the 90 day avg was up slightly to –8.08. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are in between neutral and El Nino.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1644 on: September 22, 2014, 01:41:45 AM »
The following data was issued by the BoM on Sept 22 2014, indicating that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -10.0:

20140822,20140920,-10.0


edit: Here is the pllot
« Last Edit: September 22, 2014, 03:40:10 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1645 on: September 22, 2014, 06:50:43 AM »
The attached video is for those who would like to view the latest ENSO/MJO update/forecast video from STORMSURF.COM, by MARK SPONSLER, updated September 21, 2014. Skip to 11:09 to view ENSO/MJO update/forecast.

NOTE: Listen to what he says about the SOI.... EDIT: Actually the whole thing really, especially the CFSv2 Nino 3.4 analysis near the end. 


« Last Edit: September 22, 2014, 07:16:11 AM by bigB »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1646 on: September 22, 2014, 04:19:56 PM »
According to the following NOAA data, the Nino 3.4 has remained at +0.5 for the week centered on Sept 17 2014.  If the Nino 3.4 index remains above +0.5 (on average) for about four or five more months then we may still have an El Nino event this year:


                      Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA     SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA
 11JUN2014     24.6 1.6     27.3 0.8     28.1 0.4     29.5 0.6
 18JUN2014     24.8 2.1     27.4 1.0     28.1 0.5     29.4 0.5
 25JUN2014     24.0 1.6     27.2 1.0     28.0 0.5     29.3 0.5
 02JUL2014     23.6 1.4     27.0 1.0     27.8 0.4     29.1 0.3
 09JUL2014     23.0 1.1     26.5 0.6     27.6 0.3     29.1 0.3
 16JUL2014     23.1 1.5     26.2 0.6     27.4 0.2     29.1 0.4
 23JUL2014     22.9 1.6     26.0 0.5     27.1-0.1     28.9 0.2
 30JUL2014     21.8 0.6     25.5 0.2     26.9-0.1     29.0 0.3
 06AUG2014     22.2 1.2     25.6 0.4     27.0 0.0     29.2 0.5
 13AUG2014     21.9 1.2     25.5 0.5     26.9 0.0     29.0 0.4
 20AUG2014     22.1 1.4     25.5 0.5     27.1 0.3     29.1 0.4
 27AUG2014     21.3 0.8     25.4 0.4     27.2 0.4     29.2 0.5
 03SEP2014     21.7 1.2     25.3 0.4     27.1 0.4     29.2 0.5
 10SEP2014     21.1 0.7     25.3 0.4     27.3 0.5     29.4 0.7
 17SEP2014     21.0 0.7     25.2 0.4     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.8
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1647 on: September 22, 2014, 08:18:37 PM »
As MARK SPONSLER notes in the StormSurf.com link, the MJO is projected to have almost no activity in the coming weeks; which is indicative of El Nino conditions; however, unless the atmosphere comes into sync with the ocean within the next few weeks it is likely that we will depart from our current El Nino conditions; which might end the chances of an El Nino event this year.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1648 on: September 22, 2014, 09:04:03 PM »
ASLR: I've checked the El Niño situations from 1950 and onward by looking at NOAA data. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Since 1950 there have only been a few occasions when the ONI index have been lower or equal this summers value which have ended up in an El Niño event before the calendar year ended. This happened in 1953 when JJA index (june-august 1952) was -0,1. That time ended in a weak El Niño event that lasted from DJF 1953-JFM 1954.

From this I think there is a 50/50 chance we'll see El Niño develop this year. If it doesn't I'm almost 100% sure we'll see one by 2015!

It's worth to notice that a "double-up" El Niño did occur in JAS 1968 lasting into DJF 1970. A "quasi-double-up" El Niño emerged in 1956 and lasted almost the entire year of 1957.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1649 on: September 22, 2014, 09:21:05 PM »
Preliminary TAO/PMEL data indicates good signs of a WWB emerging in the most western part of Western North Pacific around 140-150E... If one looking really close there are maybe even a hint of an anomaly of 6m/s in the left corner (and I REALLY mean corner!!), something that haven't been seen since March..

CFSv2 signaling of a really good wind burst to come in week 2 & 3 (Sep 28-Oct 11) with wind anomalies exceeding 10 m/s..

See for ex:

This should mean that our current EKW will get some support and be feeded..

the question remains if these signs really are true or just artefacts?

//LMV