2014 El Nino?

[bigB]

JayW,

I believe so, and the warm water gurgling to the surface should then begin advecting back towards the west, filling in the Nino 3.4 region. Hopefully.

[Lord M Vader]

Finally, we should see some stronger westerlies the next 2 weeks ahead and possible even the next 4 weeks. This according to the latest forecast from CFSv2 which suggests strong westerlies east of Philippinia the first 14 days of October. In fact, if one look closely at the attached pic for the first week there seems to be a small area with black color shading which would indicate so strong westerlies out of the bound. Maybe just an artefact or so. However, the westerlies seems to be strong in the area 140-160E the first 14 days and IF the forecast come true they will stretch further east even as far as 120W by week three. This should reinforce our current EKW and possibly put a new, stronger one eastward that will surface later this fall or maybe not..

Note: Latest preliminary data from PMEL/TAO suggests enhanced westerlies in the area 140E-155E. 

[bigB]

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 1st, the daily SOI value was down to -6.90, the 30 day avg was down to -6.68, and the 90 day avg was up to –6.41. This is still indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. According to GFS models, we should continue to see a similar SLP pattern at Darwin and Tahiti for the next several days. During the next 6 days we will be moving through a cluster weak positive to weak negative daily SOI values leaving the 30 day avg(except for one moderate negative daily value leaving the 30 day avg this Friday, Oct 3). During that time, and if GFS model forecasts are mostly correct, we should the 30 day avg SOI values bounce around what they currently are(+ or – a few points). So at the moment, it looks highly likely that the 30 day avg SOI values will stay in negative territory(below ZERO) for another week. GFS models appear to doing much better with forecasts than they were a few weeks ago.   

LMV,

I've noticed that a few different sources of forecast data have begun to suggest that for the next week or so, we will see a decent run of westerly winds or even a minimal WWB associated with TC activity in the Western pacific. This is good. NOTE: As far as Kelvin wave generation goes, any westerly wind above about 5N and below about 5S is too far away from the equator to aid in Kelvin wave activity. However, westerly winds that may be just a bit too far north or south to aid in Kelvin wave generation, can still aid in pushing equatorial ocean surface currents/counter currents in a favorable direction(west to east) for El Nino development.

[bigB]

We currently have a new invest in the Western Pacific. Invest 90W is currently located at 6N and165E, with the southern flank of its wind field right on the equator and in a prime position to aid in westerly wind. See attached image of the latest GOES visible satellite imagery. The red X marks the latest approximate location of 90W's center of circulation.

[AbruptSLR]

The following data issued by the BoM today indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has bounced down to -7.6:

20140901,20140930,-7.6

edit: Here is the plot

[AbruptSLR]

In the following extract, Cyclocane says that the tropical disturbance, that bigB cited, near 5.6N 165.6E, has a good chance of turning into a tropical storm:

 "WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 011200Z, TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE) WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N
141.4E, APPROXIMATELY 348 NM SOUTH OF IWO TO, AND HAD TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 011500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.6N 165.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT A PERSISTENT AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. BOTH NAVGEM AND GFS MODELS DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM BEYOND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW."

[bigB]

Attached is a paneled westerly wind forecast for Oct 2-5, created using Ualbany(courtesy Carl Shreck) maps of 850 hPa winds and absolute vorticity(LEFT COLUMN) and 850 hPa wind anomalies and rainfall rates(RIGHT COLUMN), which suggests we may possibly see at least another 4 days of decent westerly wind in the Western Pacific. According to this model, this has already been going on since Sep 28, and is actually forecast to continue for another 2 days beyond what is shown in the attachment. Other reliable data sources even suggest that these westerly winds have been ongoing since even before Sep 28. This is great news and will definitely generate some form of warm water reinforcement, which is exactly what we needed. Not to get off topic, but this possible warm event has been such a roller coaster this year. We've all been patiently waiting for some sort of clear sign/signal of El Nino development since late Spring/early Summer. Actually monitoring its progress since January(9 months going 10). I guess its kept it fun and interesting to follow though, at least for me. I've learned a lot more than I ever would've thought. ASLR, we've had our differences but I've learned a lot from you. Also, your post's have inspired me to research new ideas and look back into old things that i had almost forgotten about. Deep Octo, JayW, LMV, and many others too. Thank you guys for all that you have contributed to this thread. The Journey continues....   

[AbruptSLR]

As the topic of this folder is whether an El Nino event will occur in 2014, I point out that per NOAA's definition of and El Nino event (see link and extract below) the declaration of an El Nino event would require a 3 month running (ie consecutive months) mean of SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region above +0.5, and as it is now Oct 2 2014 (with less than three months to January 1 2015) and the Nino 3.4 index is now below +0.5, it is safe to conclude that an official El Nino event will not be declared for 2014.  That said, it is still possible for the Nino 3.4 index to move above +0.5 for the rest of this year if the current EKW surfaces fast enough (see the first attached NOAA SSTA plot for Oct 2 2014) and the atmosphere and the ocean get into sync. to support a change of the Walker Cell into an El Nino pattern (see the second attached image).

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/ElNinoDef.htm

Extract: "The index is defined as a three-month average of sea surface temperature departures from normal for a critical region of the equatorial Pacific (Niño 3.4 region; 120W-170W, 5N-5S). This region of the tropical Pacific contains what scientists call the "equatorial cold tongue," a band of cool water that extends along the equator from the coast of South America to the central Pacific Ocean. Departures from average sea surface temperatures in this region are critically important in determining major shifts in the pattern of tropical rainfall, which influence the jet streams and patterns of temperature and precipitation around the world.
North America's operational definitions for El Niño and La Niña, based on the index, are:
El Niño: A phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a positive sea surface temperature departure from normal (for the 1971-2000 base period) in the Niño 3.4 region greater than or equal in magnitude to 0.5 degrees C (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit), averaged over three consecutive months."

[bigB]

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 2nd, the daily SOI value was up to -4.45, the 30 day avg remained unchanged at -6.68, and the 90 day avg was down to –6.51. This is still indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are neutral, bordering on weak El Nino.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued by the BoM today, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -7.0 (and thus remains in the neutral range):

20140902,20141001,-7.0

[AbruptSLR]

Per Cyclocane, today:

Extract: " AT 030000Z, TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
8.0N 159.5E, APPROXIMATELY 102 NM NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, AND HAD
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45."

TS 19W is responsible for the brief WWB (currently near 160E) shown in the attached U.Albany surface wind forecast; however, this plot indicates that this WWB will be relatively weak and brief.

[bigB]

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 3nd, the daily SOI value was up to -0.84, the 30 day avg was up to -6.25, and the 90 day avg was down to –6.60. This is still indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are neutral, bordering on weak El Nino.

[AbruptSLR]

The following data released today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -7.2:

20140903,20141002,-7.2

[bigB]

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 4th, the daily SOI value was up to +7.67, the 30 day avg was up to -5.77, and the 90 day avg was down to –6.65. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino.

NOTE: Hurricane Simon of the Eastern Pacific is currently undergoing a rapid intensification cycle and is expected to soon(if not already) achieve Cat 3 status/major hurricane status. If Simon does indeed achieve major hurricane status, it would be only the 2nd time since 1971 that an Eastern Pacific(east of 140W) hurricane season has featured 8 major hurricanes, tying the record 8 set back 1992.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued by the BoM today, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.5 (and thus is neutral):

20140904,20141003,-5.5

edit: Here is the plot

[bigB]

We currently have a yet another new invest in the far Western Pacific. Invest 91W is currently located at 11N and133E. See attached image of the latest GOES visible satellite imagery. IMPORTANT NOTE: None of the track guidance or intensity forecast models have picked up on this invest yet as it does not quite meet the model criteria at this time. 

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot issued by the BoM today indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -5.6:

[bigB]

The attached video is for those who would like to view the latest ENSO/MJO update/forecast video from STORMSURF.COM, by MARK SPONSLER, updated October 5, 2014. Skip to 8:59 to view ENSO/MJO update/forecast.

[AbruptSLR]

The following NOAA Nino indices data, including the week centered on Oct 1 2014, indicates that the current EKW is weakening and that the Nino3.4 index has dropped to +0.3 (and thus is neutral):

                      Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week            SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA
 13AUG2014    21.9 1.2     25.5 0.5     26.9 0.0     29.0 0.4
 20AUG2014    22.1 1.4     25.5 0.5     27.1 0.3     29.1 0.4
 27AUG2014    21.3 0.8     25.4 0.4     27.2 0.4     29.2 0.5
 03SEP2014     21.7 1.2     25.3 0.4     27.1 0.4     29.2 0.5
 10SEP2014     21.1 0.7     25.3 0.4     27.3 0.5     29.4 0.7
 17SEP2014     21.0 0.7     25.2 0.4     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.8
 24SEP2014     21.2 0.8     25.4 0.5     27.1 0.4     29.3 0.6
 01OCT2014     21.7 1.1     25.4 0.5     27.1 0.3     29.2 0.5

The fact that the current EKW is weakening is confirmed by the attached image from NOAA of the Eq. Pac. Upper Ocean Heat Anom. circa Oct 6 2014:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued by the BoM today, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.3:

20140906,20141005,-6.3

edit: Here is the plot

[deep octopus]

Here is the BOM's update for October 7th:

Neutral, but El Niño WATCH remains

Tropical Pacific Ocean ENSO indicators remain within the neutral range, having failed to maintain sustained values typical of El Niño. However, given the persistent warmth in the tropical Pacific Ocean, models continue to suggest an El Niño remains possible during the last quarter of 2014.

Atmospheric indicators of El Niño have remained neutral over recent months. Tropical cloud patterns and trade winds have only had brief periods with El Niño-like values since May. Despite a recent drop into El Niño territory, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has returned to neutral values over the past fortnight.

Model outlooks and current observations mean the Bureau’s El Niño WATCH remains in place, indicating double the normal chance (50%) of an El Niño over the coming months.

While still falling short of El Niño thresholds, the tropical Pacific Ocean remains warmer than average. When combined with recent cool water to the north of Australia, conditions favour below-average rainfall over much of Australia for the remainder of 2014.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[bigB]

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 7th, the daily SOI value was down to -3.81, the 30 day avg was down to -5.60, and the 90 day avg was down to –6.80. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. According to GFS models, Tahiti should continue to see relatively favorable SLP conditions for the next several days, while the SLP conditions at Darwin remain pretty much the same. This should result in dead neutral to weak negative daily SOI values during this time. However, we are about to move through a few moderate-strong negative daily SOI values leaving the 30 day avg, and without moderate-strong negative daily SOI values to replace those that are leaving, the 30 day avg will rise.  Its worth noting that some of the more recent GFS model runs are now suggesting that we may see an area of low pressure begin to affect Tahiti later on this week. If that were to occur, it would likely result in moderate negative daily SOI values. It's still too early to be believable just yet, but it's something to monitor.

[icefest]

Thanks for synthesizing all this information BigB.

I mainly lurk, but appreciate your work.

[AbruptSLR]

The two attached plots were issued by the BoM today for the week ending Oct 5 2014, and indicates that the IOD (first image) is now positive and the Nino3.4 index (second image) is +0.44:

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plots of the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices respectively were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Oct 5 2014:

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot issued by the BoM today indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -5.9 (and thus is still neutral):

[bigB]

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 8th, the daily SOI value was up to +6.51, the 30 day avg was up to -4.92, and the 90 day avg was up to –6.67. This is still indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. GFS models continue to suggest that an area of low pressure will begin to affect SLP conditions at Tahiti as we move into the weekend, possibly lowering SLP in that region to as low as 1010-1012 mb. If indeed this were to occur, the difference in SLP between Darwin and Tahiti would likely result in moderate negative daily SOI values. A strong negative daily SOI value is set to leave the 30 day avg tomorrow and it looks highly unlikely that we'll see a new negative daily SOI value of equal or greater strength replace it. Therefore, the 30 day avg is likely to rise again tomorrow.

Also, attached is the latest UAlbany(courtesy Carl Shreck) hovmoller plot of the last 30 days/7 day forecast for zonal wind anomalies between 5N-5S, which suggests that over the next several days, neutral wind anomalies will slowly return across much of the Equatorial Pacific. If this were to occur, it would likely allow SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region to warm some. Just get those easterly trade winds outta here.     

icefest,

No problem, thank you!

[AbruptSLR]

Attached is the 30-day moving average SOI issued by the BoM showing that the index has moved up to -5.3:

[viddaloo]

Synopsis: El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

During September 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The weekly Niño indices were relatively unchanged from the beginning of the month, with values ranging from +0.3oC (Niño-3.4) to +1.1oC (Niño-1+2) at the end of the month (Fig. 2). The change in subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180o-100oW) was also minimal (Fig. 3) due to the persistence of above-average temperatures at depth across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Equatorial low-level winds were largely near average for the month, though brief periods of westerly wind anomalies continue to arise. Upper-level winds were also close to average for the month. The Southern Oscillation Index has remained negative, and rainfall was near average around the Date Line, with a mix of positive and negative anomalies over Indonesia and Papua New Guinea (Fig. 5). The lack of coherent atmospheric and oceanic features indicates the continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Niño during the November 2014 - January 2015 season. This El Niño will likely remain weak (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5oC and 0.9oC) throughout its duration. In summary, El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 6 November 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

[bigB]

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 9th, the daily SOI value was down to +4.12, the 30 day avg was up to -3.99, and the 90 day avg was up to –6.39. This is still indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. According to GFS models, current SLP conditions at Tahiti are to rapidly change over the next 24 hours, as an area of low pressure quickly builds in just to the southeast of the region. This should result in the return of weak-moderate negative daily SOI values by tomorrow or Saturday. These conditions are expected to hold through at least the beginning of next week.

[AbruptSLR]

In line with the data that bigB just posted, the following data issued by the BoM today shows that the 30-day moving average SOI value has moved up to -4.2 (and thus is still neutral):

20140909,20141008,-4.2

edit: Here is the plot

[bigB]

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 10th, the daily SOI value was up to +5.22, the 30 day avg was up to -3.39, and the 90 day avg was up to –5.96. This is still indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino(but is starting to slip back to just neutral). An area of low pressure has built in to the southeast of Tahiti as expected. HOWEVER, another area of low pressure has also built in to the southwest of Tahiti, and is diving further south than originally projected. These two areas of low pressure are now pushing down in unison on a broader area of high pressure located to the south of Tahiti. Unfortunately, this has caused a kink/ridge to develop and extend north over Tahiti, keeping SLP in that region elevated. This scenario has actually been in the forecast for a few days now, but the kink/ridge of high pressure was not projected to extend nearly as far north. Weather is weather though, it can be tricky to predict even a day or two out from time to time. This weather pattern is currently snuffing out any chances of negative daily SOI values. Although there is still a chance at weak-moderate negative daily SOI values, but that heavily depends on what these high and low pressure systems do over the next few days. Something to monitor. For visual reference, see the second attached image of the GFS 24 hour forecast for SLP and precip, which suggests the same pattern will be in play tomorrow. The model is likely being a bit bullish with the SLP forecast for tomorrow.

[AbruptSLR]

The following data issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -4.4:

20140910,20141009,-4.4

edit: Here is the plot

[bigB]

The attached hovmoller plot from the UAlbany (courtesy Carl Schreck), updated Oct 11th (top plot), suggests that neutral-weak westerly wind anomalies are to develop across most of the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific, with a modest pocket developing from about 180-150W. Most of the projected westerly wind anomalies would be too far to the east to aid in any significant warm water downwelling/Kelvin wave activity. Although westerly anomalies near the dateline may help some, but in reality, anything east of about 170W is outside the Kelvin wave generation area. (SIDE NOTE: westerly winds that occurred in the W PAC from Sep 27th-Oct 8th, were however, able to provide at least modest warm water downwelling/Kelvin wave reinforcement). The projected westerly winds, IF they were to occur, would likely help promote a warming of SSTA across the Central/Eastern Equatorial Pacific, as they would help slow down/push back on cool water flowing from the east to the west. Equatorial ocean surface currents still have not yet flipped into an El Nino configuration (but are close) so there is still a pronounced flow of cool water from east to west. It's just that warm water from the currently surfacing Kelvin wave is mixing in and making this process less noticeable. In the attached image, I have also included the Oct 10th, TAO plot of actual SST's and wind speeds in the Equatorial Pacific (bottom plot). This shows the flow of cool water from east to west mentioned above. When looking at actual SSTs, one can really see this process. I have marked the TAO plot with a box and arrows, which shows the approximate location of the projected westerly wind anomalies. We'll see what happens.

EDIT: the black box in the TAO plot shows the general area in which the projected westerly wind anomalies would have the greatest effect. The arrows represent the direction in which those westerly wind anomalies would be pushing. With westerly wind anomalies pushing back on the cooler surface water flowing from the east to the west, SSTA would warm noticeably. This would be due to warmer water near the dateline being forced east and cooler water in the far Eastern Pacific not being allowed to flow as far west. 2 very large contributing factors to warming SSTA are, downwelling Kelvin waves, and direction/strength of the flow of equatorial ocean surface currents. Both are heavily influenced or a direct result of the strength and direction of equatorial surface level winds/anomalies.   

[AbruptSLR]

Attached is the 30-day moving SOI plot issued by the BoM today, indicating that this index has drifted down to -4.5 (and remains neutral):

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot of the 30-day moving average SOI, issued by the BoM today, the index has drifted up to -4.0:

[AbruptSLR]

According to the following NOAA data the Nino 3.4 index for the week center on Oct. 8 2014 has bounced back up to +0.4 (which while neutral, indicates that the current EKW is/was still surfacing):

                      Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week             SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA
 03SEP2014     21.7 1.2     25.3 0.4     27.1 0.4     29.2 0.5
 10SEP2014     21.1 0.7     25.3 0.4     27.3 0.5     29.4 0.7
 17SEP2014     21.0 0.7     25.2 0.4     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.8
 24SEP2014     21.2 0.8     25.4 0.5     27.1 0.4     29.3 0.6
 01OCT2014     21.7 1.1     25.4 0.5     27.1 0.3     29.2 0.5
 08OCT2014     21.3 0.6     25.5 0.6     27.1 0.4     29.1 0.5

[AbruptSLR]

The attached NOAA image of the Equatorial Pacific Subsurface Temperature Anomalies for Oct 5 2014, reinforces the point that while the current EKW is not particularly strong, it is continuing to surface; which could possibly trigger a weak El Nino event:

[bigB]

The attached hovmoller plot from the UAlbany (courtesy Carl Schreck), updated Oct 13th, shows that weak westerly anomalies have already begun to develop near the dateline and are only forecast to strengthen. The latest forecast, which is actually more favorable than a few days ago, suggests that slightly more moderate westerly anomalies are to develop near and just west of the dateline. This would be inside the Kelvin wave generation area and support warm water downwelling of what appears to be another new Kelvin wave developing near the dateline. This new possible Kelvin wave appears to have been initiated by the modest westerly winds we had from Sep 27th-Oct 8th. If the current westerly anomalies develop as forecast then within the next week or so a more pronounced Kelvin wave signature should become evident in subsurface data. This would be good because as noted by ASLR, the latest Kelvin wave is not particularly strong. Also, as mentioned before, the moderate westerly wind anomalies should help promote further warming of SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region.   

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued by the BoM today, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.5 (and thus is neutral):

20140913,20141012,-3.5

edit: here is the plot

[bigB]

The attached GOES visible satellite imagery from earlier today (Oct 13th), shows newly formed tropical storm Ana, which is currently projected to strengthen into a CAT 1 hurricane while taking an unfortunate track towards Hawaii. It's too early to say whether or not Ana will have any impact on Hawaii other than elevated surf heights, but its something to keep an eye on!

[AbruptSLR]

The two attached plots were issued today by the BoM with data through the week ending Oct 12 2014.
The first image shows that the Nino 3.4 have moved into the El Nino range at +0.51, due to the current EKW continuing to surface, which may or may not, support synergistic conditions to work with the atmosphere to create El Nino conditions later this year (without the synergy the current EKW will degrade and an El Nino will not develop this year).

The second image shows that the IOD is becoming increasingly positive, which supports the idea that El Nino conditions may develop by the end of this year.

[AbruptSLR]

The following four plots of the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices (respectively), were issued by the BoM today for the week ending Oct 12 2014.  These plots support the position that there is close to a 50-50% chance that El Nino supporting conditions may (or may not) develop before the end of this year:

[AbruptSLR]

The following data issued by the BoM today indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.0 (and thus is neutral):

20140914,20141013,-3.0

edit: here is the plot

[bigB]

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 15th, the daily SOI value was down to -18.76, the 30 day avg was down to -3.51, and the 90 day avg was down to –6.87. This is still indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. Now that SOI values issued by the Long Paddock site have been updated, we can see that moderate negative daily SOI values have indeed returned, just a day or two behind what was originally being suggested by GFS models. The only reason that the 30 day avg has not been dropping is because negative daily SOI values entering the 30 day avg have been almost equally as negative as those that are leaving, thus, canceling each other out. However, that is likely about to change. According to GFS models, the current SLP pattern at Tahiti is to continue for the next several days. At the same time, we're about to move through a cluster of weak negative daily SOI leaving the 30 day avg, and if moderate negative daily SOI values continue then we'll see the 30 day avg drop noticeably. 

[AbruptSLR]

In keeping with the Long Paddock Station data cited by bigB, the BoM issued the following data today indicating that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -3.1:

20140915,20141014,-3.1

edit: here is the plot

[bigB]

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 16th, the daily SOI value was up to -14.44, the 30 day avg was down to -3.61, and the 90 day avg was down to –7.10. This is still indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino.   

[AbruptSLR]

The following data issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has continued to move down to a valued of -3.2 (and thus implies neutral conditions):

20140916,20141015,-3.2

edit: here is the plot

[bigB]

Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of October 17th, the daily SOI value was up to -11.86, the 30 day avg was down to -3.99, and the 90 day avg was down to –7.24. This is still indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. GFS models continue to suggest that SLP conditions at both Darwin and Tahiti will likely support moderate negative daily SOI values through the next several days. If this forecast holds true, then the 30 and 90 day avg SOI values should continue to fall.

Also attached are the TAO plots of equatorial subsurface temps (top) and anomalies (bottom) from Oct 16th, which shows that: (a) warm water is currently downwelling in the Western Pacific and near the Dateline, feeding into what appears to be a new building Kelvin wave, (b) the Kelvin in the Eastern Pacific is continuing to surface, and (c) warm surface water near the Dateline region is moving towards the east. All the points listed above are attributable to past and present westerly winds/anomalies. I suspect that the weekly ENSO update issued by NOAA on Monday Oct 20th, will show that SSTA in Nino 3.4 region have warmed some.

TAO DATA RETURN UPDATE: subsurface sensors at 170W have been returned to working order (NOTE: subsurface sensors at 170W came back online 24 hrs after this image was originally posted and therefore are not shown in the image below). The TAO buoy array is now up to 80% operational (up from 35% operational earlier this year). There are now NO significant gaps between about 145E-95W. It's safe to say that the TAO array is no longer compromised. For now....

[AbruptSLR]

The following PDO from the University of Washington indicates that in September 2014 the index jumped up to +1.08 (supporting the idea that the PDO is currently in its positive/warming phase):

YEAR     JAN    FEB    MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC

2012  -1.38  -0.85  -1.05  -0.27  -1.26  -0.87  -1.52  -1.93  -2.21  -0.79  -0.59  -0.48
2013  -0.13  -0.43  -0.63  -0.16   0.08  -0.78  -1.25  -1.04  -0.48  -0.87  -0.11  -0.41
2014    0.30   0.38   0.97   1.13   1.80   0.82   0.70    0.67   1.08