Please support this Forum and Neven's Blog

Author Topic: 2014 sea ice area and extent data  (Read 103071 times)

Neven

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1193
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 01, 2014, 11:22:48 PM »
Recently there was a very short discussion of the question whether it might be better to have a central thread for everything concerning sea ice area and extent data. I think this might be useful because it makes it easier to compare things to one another, instead of 3-4 separate threads that fragments a lot of the info.

Let's just try it out and see how things go. We can always go back to separate threads.

I'll kick off with this Cryosphere Today sea ice area graph:



Things have been slowing down big time in the last couple of days, owing in part to very high Arctic temps. It'll be interesting to see what PIOMAS has to say about it in a couple of days.

The hiatus  ;) in Arctic sea ice area growth has also caused global sea ice anomaly to finally go negative again (after approx. 72 days).
Il faut cultiver notre jardin

crandles

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 660
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1 on: February 02, 2014, 01:04:54 AM »
I make it 5th lowest on NSIDC extent and CT area and 6th lowest on IJIS extent. Not much change recently.

On Jan 12th I wrote

CT area is now down to second lowest.

Area has been in 5th to 9th lowest position for the last couple of months while extent measure have been around 2nd or 3rd lowest. But now area has come down to second lowest for the date. Extent on both NSIDC and Jaxa are 3rd lowest.

The ranks have remained fairly consistent since then rising fairly quickly to about 5th lowest and has pretty much stayed close to that for most of the second half of Jan.

BornFromTheVoid

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 379
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2 on: February 02, 2014, 04:10:18 PM »
Update for the week to February 1st

The current 1 day extent is 14,189,100km2, while the 5 day mean is on 14,152,440km2

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -808,860km2, an increase from -689,540km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +102,593km2 a change from +142,990km2. We're currently 7th lowest on record, up from 6th last week.

The average daily increase over the last 7 days was +17.7k/day, compared to the long term average of +35.9k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +35.0k/day.

The average long term increase over the next week is +22.1k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +31.2k/day.

The increase for January was the 12th largest on record.




Shared Humanity

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 912
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3 on: February 02, 2014, 07:18:58 PM »
Cryosphere Today SIA anomaly is larger today than it was last year at this date. And if you look at the Bering and Chukchi Seas, you'd swear that the melt season has begun.


http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png

crandles

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 660
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2014, 12:58:30 PM »
CT Area:

2006.0876  -1.1139752  12.4449024  13.5588779
2012.0876  -1.0807444  12.4781332  13.5588779
2011.0876  -1.0793139  12.4795637  13.5588779
2014.0876  -1.0545155  12.5043621  13.5588779

4th lowest but less than 60k higher than record low.

Record low for next day:
2012.0905  -1.0874619  12.5213251

Jim Pettit

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 353
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2014, 01:41:54 PM »
IJIS extent:

13,682,1262 (February 03, 2014)  up 101 km2 from previous day.

481,820 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

19,890 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

144,654 km2 above 2012 value for this date.


CT area:

12,504,3622 (February 02, 2014)  up 7,797 km2 from previous day.

530,778 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

77,753 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

26,229 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2014, 02:04:25 PM by Jim Pettit »

jdallen

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 847
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2014, 06:59:52 PM »

4th lowest but less than 60k higher than record low.

There may be something instructive in just how narrow that range is.
This space for Rent.

Jim Pettit

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 353
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2014, 12:44:25 PM »
IJIS extent:

13,681,6852 (February 04, 2014)  down 441 km2 from previous day.

497,993 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

10,494 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

123,559 km2 above 2012 value for this date.


CT area:

12,610,4292 (February 04, 2014)  up 53,659 km2 from previous day.

479,411 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

60,285 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

64,997 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2014, 04:33:33 PM by Jim Pettit »

Jim Pettit

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 353
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2014, 01:22:55 PM »
IJIS extent:

13,682,0252 (February 05, 2014) up 340 km2 from previous day / up 154,8112 over past seven days.

517,343 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

28,935 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

142,250 km2 above 2012 value for this date.


CT area:

12,624,1062 (February 05, 2014)  up 13,678 km2 from previous day / up 77,1372 over past seven days.

494,918 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

57,492 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

84,915 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2014, 01:57:29 PM by Jim Pettit »

Jim Pettit

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 353
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2014, 12:28:35 PM »
IJIS extent:

13,713,9812 (February 06, 2014) up 31,956 km2 from previous day / up 147,1522 over past seven days.

513,666 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

25,437 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

145,159 km2 above 2012 value for this date.


CT area:

12,570,5502 (February 06, 2014)  down 53,556 km2 from previous day / up 29,1552 over past seven days.

586,203 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

130,987 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

8,531 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2014, 09:34:37 PM by Jim Pettit »

crandles

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 660
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2014, 09:02:14 PM »
CT area
2014.0986  -1.1187170  12.5705500  13.6892672
2012.0986  -1.1272476  12.5620194  13.6892672
2005.0986  -1.1393507  12.5499163  13.6892672


3rd lowest for this day, just 21k higher than lowest ever.

Is lower than 9 days ago but would have to go sideways for another week before it was lowest ever for a particular day.

Biggest anomaly for nearly 3 months, since
2013.8575  -1.1833279   7.6665378   8.8498659

Jim Pettit

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 353
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #11 on: February 08, 2014, 02:47:14 PM »
IJIS extent:

13,666,8432 (February 06, 2014) down 47,138 km2 from previous day / up 50,1412 over past seven days.

588,583 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

46,039 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

3,941 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Jim Pettit

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 353
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #12 on: February 09, 2014, 02:36:12 PM »
IJIS extent:

13,669,8852 (February 07, 2014) up 3,042 km2 from previous day / up 28,5782 over past seven days.

619,461 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

84,317 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

62,078 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Second lowest for the date (2011).

BornFromTheVoid

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 379
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #13 on: February 09, 2014, 04:12:22 PM »
Update for the week to February 8th

The current 1 day extent is 14,155,330km2, while the 5 day mean is on 14,267,840km2

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -997,030km2, an increase from -808,860km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -124,460km2 a change from +102,593km2. We're currently 2nd lowest on record, down from 7th last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -4.9k/day, compared to the long term average of +22.1k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +31.2k/day.

The average long term increase over the next week is +18.2k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +31.3k/day.

The change so far this month is the 2nd most negative on record. To record the largest February gain, an increase of 49.6k/day is required, while the smallest gain requires an increase of 4.1k/day.


Shared Humanity

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 912
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #14 on: February 09, 2014, 04:17:50 PM »
I think the break in the persistent high over the Pacific could result in a dramatic increase in SIE over the next month as the Bering freezes over. This spike would look very much like the spike we saw in 2012. It will not  protect the Arctic from a dramatic melt in the coming melt season as this late freeze and growth in SIE will  be very thin ice, prone to rapid melt.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2014, 08:46:29 PM by Shared Humanity »

Pmt111500

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 348
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #15 on: February 10, 2014, 06:13:05 AM »
I've still to update my CT SIA files to a simpler form.  Winter ice area numbers are not that informative as 10 cm of thickness with 1cm of snow will on calm conditions show up (almost) exactly like thicker ice on older satellite systems. Cryosat-2, I believe will be more accurate in producing area numbers too but I'm too lazy right now to check if the good people producing CT SIA are currently using that. Last year, I did some tables and graphs on the time series (the thread:http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,194.0.html), but not sure if I'll continue on that. Here's my first look on arctic CT SIA numbers (weighted 5-day averages) in 2014. It appears winter numbers have started to decline more rapidly only in the 2000s, and ice gain this winter is some 16 days behind those, whereas winters in 1990s and 1980s are pretty exactly one full long month ahead in the freezing compared to this winter.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2014, 06:53:28 AM by Pmt111500 »
"I think you might want to take a closer look on that, and then, you should take x3/2!"

Neven

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1193
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #16 on: February 10, 2014, 08:39:53 AM »
2014 second lowest for the time being, and not too far from 2012:



I wonder if this will be reflected in next month's PIOMAS numbers.
Il faut cultiver notre jardin

Jim Pettit

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 353
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #17 on: February 10, 2014, 12:20:17 PM »
IJIS extent:

13,688,6192 (February 09, 2014) up 18,734 km2 from previous day / up 6,5942 over past seven days.

629,451 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

96,523 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

68,056 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Second lowest for the date (2011).


CT area:

12,511,7052 (February 09, 2014)  down 31,959 km2 from previous day / up 7,3432 over past seven days.

738,485 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

170,111 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

49,501 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Second lowest for the date (2012).
« Last Edit: February 10, 2014, 05:34:15 PM by Jim Pettit »

crandles

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 660
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #18 on: February 10, 2014, 12:29:31 PM »
So CT area 2nd lowest behind 2012,
IJIS extent 2nd lowest behind 2011, and
NSIDC extent 2nd lowest behind 2005

So an average of these measures ....

jdallen

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 847
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #19 on: February 10, 2014, 06:34:41 PM »
So CT area 2nd lowest behind 2012,
IJIS extent 2nd lowest behind 2011, and
NSIDC extent 2nd lowest behind 2005

So an average of these measures ....

... So on average these measures are lining up with those of years which had dramatic declines in MYI.
This space for Rent.

Pmt111500

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 348
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #20 on: February 11, 2014, 06:14:53 AM »
trivia: 2007-2013 average date for the turnaround from ice growth to ice melt is 16th of March, it's not yet the 'Ides of March' (idus Martiae) but maybe it is after this year. Beware, as the proverb goes. 'naturae secundae nulli secundus', if I got that correctly (nature bats last).
« Last Edit: February 11, 2014, 06:32:42 AM by Pmt111500 »
"I think you might want to take a closer look on that, and then, you should take x3/2!"

jdallen

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 847
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #21 on: February 11, 2014, 08:06:41 AM »
trivia: 2007-2013 average date for the turnaround from ice growth to ice melt is 16th of March, it's not yet the 'Ides of March' (idus Martiae) but maybe it is after this year. Beware, as the proverb goes. 'naturae secundae nulli secundus', if I got that correctly (nature bats last).

That's close, Pmt111500.

Unfortunately, the raw plot looks pretty much just just like chaos.  I'd say we'd need to smooth them using some sort of running average, and then checking against other phenomena, rather than each other.
This space for Rent.

Pmt111500

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 348
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #22 on: February 11, 2014, 10:00:47 AM »
"raw plot looks pretty much just just like chaos.  I'd say we'd need to smooth them using some sort of running average"

true, the apparent linear trend line crosses zero on 16th but the linearity doesn't continue when the melt gets going, the true date of the approximate end of the freezing season is a bit earlier.
"I think you might want to take a closer look on that, and then, you should take x3/2!"

Jim Pettit

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 353
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #23 on: February 11, 2014, 12:19:34 PM »
IJIS extent:

13,678,3912 (February 10, 2014) down 10,228 km2 from previous day / down 3,7352 over past seven days.

663,617 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

113,975 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

107,103 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Second lowest for the date (2011).


CT area:

12,508,6792 (February 10, 2014) down 3,026 km2 from previous day / down 48,0902 over past seven days.

769,330 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

229,616 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

36,165 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest ever for the date.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2014, 07:04:05 PM by Jim Pettit »

Shared Humanity

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 912
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #24 on: February 11, 2014, 04:46:50 PM »
There has to be an upturn in SIA and SIE but both measures have been behaving as if the end of the freeze season is near.

deep octopus

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 313
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #25 on: February 11, 2014, 05:02:21 PM »
Not yet the end, but it's getting to the point when things really slow down by the nature of approaching the equinox. On NSIDC, the 1981-2010 average gain (of the three-day moving average) from February 10th to the peak at March 12th is 331,000 km2. If 2014 wants to beat the lowest maximum set in 2011, it'll have to gain better than average from this point on.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2014, 05:08:58 PM by deep octopus »

lanevn

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 58
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #26 on: February 11, 2014, 05:21:03 PM »
Weather forecast is good for freezing along all ice edges, so chances to beat lowest maximum looks pathetic now.

deep octopus

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 313
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #27 on: February 11, 2014, 05:28:54 PM »
Next few days should be good for freezing, yes. The Beaufort high will strengthen into place and keep things cool on the periphery. Forecasts much further than that lack skill to say the least. There's another huge stratospheric warming event kicking in which could flip the tables over for the rest of winter.

Jim Pettit

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 353
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #28 on: February 11, 2014, 07:16:23 PM »
Weather forecast is good for freezing along all ice edges, so chances to beat lowest maximum looks pathetic now.

Possibly--though historically speaking, the annual maximum will occur somewhere between about one and seven weeks from now, so unless something really bizarre takes place--something that's showing up on none of the models as of yet--any ice created between now and the maximum is going to likely be of the thin and frangible variety, and will therefore not be with us long once the peak has been reached.

FWIW (and as you can see above), both IJIS extent and CT area have actually decreased over the past seven days. Area is the lowest it's ever been on this date--including 2012, the record year--and extent is in second place, just 4,500 square kilometers out of first. As has been stated before, today's low numbers are absolutely no guarantee of a subsequent record melt-out...but they sure do slam the brakes on denialist fantasies that 2013 represented some kind of long-term recovery...

Buddy

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 188
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #29 on: February 11, 2014, 07:56:37 PM »
OK...I'll be the one to say it.  There are likely many people who are looking at the various Arctic ice sheet charts and thinking two things:

1)  "The ice sheet will certainly add some more ice before it peaks this year...........won't it?"

2)  If it DOESN'T add much ice between now and the "normal peak" over the next few weeks......the ice sheet is really "s**t out of luck" this year.

Humans have a tough time with change.  And climate change is no different.  As much as I "think" the ice sheet will grow a LITTLE BIT MORE this year before peaking.....I also look CLOSELY at "the numbers".

And by "numbers"....I'm talking about are  (1) atmospheric temperature in the Arctic overall, and (2) sea surface temperatures in the Arctic (especially around Greenland AND Svalbard.

NOT....a pretty picture.  And the forecast for the next week "temperature wise" is not comforting as well.

As time marches on.....we have to understand that the "unthinkable" will continue to happen. Unlike FOX News......basic physics and basic math don't lie.



 

FOX News....."Where truth and journalism are dead."

Neven

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1193
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #30 on: February 11, 2014, 10:17:46 PM »
Yup, CT lowest as of today:



But it's all about the volume (and the weather, as we saw last year). Interesting, nevertheless. As always.
Il faut cultiver notre jardin

idunno

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 141
  • wonders are many
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #31 on: February 11, 2014, 10:41:30 PM »
It's also heading towards a record winter anomaly.

Note, however, the latest temperature anomaly charts, which show strong positive anomalies all around the margins of the Arctic, but a negative anomaly in the Central Arctic.

So there is currently a major anomaly in the Sea of Okotsckh...

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.14.html

Which may not be very significant come September?

Jim Pettit

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 353
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #32 on: February 11, 2014, 10:53:07 PM »
Yup, CT lowest as of today:



But it's all about the volume (and the weather, as we saw last year). Interesting, nevertheless. As always.

It most definitely is "all about the volume". But given the ice's behavior over the past several weeks, my guess is that, absent a heavy cool-down over the next two weeks or so, February's PIOMAS numbers are going to continue the trend we saw at the end of January. That is, closing  the gap between 2014 and other lower years. And unless I'm mistaken, no large regions of the Arctic have been subject to cold over the past three weeks or so profound enough to cause a thickening of the ice great enough to offset the lack of increase we've seen in both area and extent.

As always, we'll see. But whatever happens, this is shaping up to be yet another exciting season to watch...

davidsanger

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 29
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #33 on: February 12, 2014, 04:35:30 AM »
As of February 11th 2014 the IJIS Arctic Sea Ice Extent is now at an all-time low for the date, 13,633,069 km2.

The previous low for the date was in 2011

Jim Pettit

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 353
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #34 on: February 12, 2014, 12:38:59 PM »
IJIS extent:

13,633,0692 (February 11, 2014) down 45,322 km2 from previous day / down 48,6162 over past seven days.

726,862 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

182,342 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

224,625 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest ever for the date.  Fourth consecutive day in the lowest three years.


CT area:

12,621,0732 (February 11, 2014) up 112,393 km2 from previous day / up 10,6442 over past seven days.

688,473 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

142,196 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

110,054 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Second lowest ever for the date (2012). Ninth consecutive day in the lowest three years.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2014, 02:50:58 PM by Jim Pettit »

deep octopus

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 313
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #35 on: February 12, 2014, 04:46:26 PM »
NSIDC (extent):

14,200,310 km2 (February 11, 2014)

Down 66,670 km2 from previous day.

Lowest on record for the date.

OldLeatherneck

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 361
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #36 on: February 12, 2014, 05:30:45 PM »
Some interesting factoids regarding current IJIS Extent data.

Extent Gain From January 31st to February 11th

2014 - 16,367 km2

2011 - 126,559 km2 (Lowest gain in previous 10 years)

2004 - 585,324 km2 (Highest gain in previous 10 years)

Avg. -  335,855 km2 (Years 2004 - 2013)

Extent Gain From February 11th to annual peak

2014 - TBD

2007 -  250,146 km2, (Lowest gain in previous 10 years) peak occurred on Feb. 24th

2012 -  851,392 km2, (Highest gain in previous 10 years) peak occurred on Mar. 7th

Avg. -  486,539 km2  (Years 2004 - 2013)

Comments

As many of us learned last year, prognosticating the future state, or fate, of Arctic Sea Ice, for the remainder of the year at this early date can be a fool's errand.  However, I think it is safe to say that 2014 is poised to contend for the lowest peak extent values on record.  What will Watts and company say if the extent does not exceed 14,000,000 km2 ???

The next six weeks will be very interesting to watch.









"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

Theta

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 29
  • Optimistic Pessimist
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #37 on: February 12, 2014, 05:40:26 PM »
Some interesting factoids regarding current IJIS Extent data.

Extent Gain From January 31st to February 11th

2014 - 16,367 km2

2011 - 126,559 km2 (Lowest gain in previous 10 years)

2004 - 585,324 km2 (Highest gain in previous 10 years)

Avg. -  335,855 km2 (Years 2004 - 2013)

Extent Gain From February 11th to annual peak

2014 - TBD

2007 -  250,146 km2, (Lowest gain in previous 10 years) peak occurred on Feb. 24th

2012 -  851,392 km2, (Highest gain in previous 10 years) peak occurred on Mar. 7th

Avg. -  486,539 km2  (Years 2004 - 2013)

Comments

As many of us learned last year, prognosticating the future state, or fate, of Arctic Sea Ice, for the remainder of the year at this early date can be a fool's errand.  However, I think it is safe to say that 2014 is poised to contend for the lowest peak extent values on record.  What will Watts and company say if the extent does not exceed 14,000,000 km2 ???

The next six weeks will be very interesting to watch.

With the possibility of an El-nino being quite high, it makes me shudder to think that this year could see the Arctic either crash to record low values or even to an ice free state during late or mid-summer.
Perhaps death is taunting us with misplaced joy, making one think that earth will flourish everlastingly while his gaping maw awaits the river of corpses that will continue to flow and wash away the features of this planet; leaving behind only bare soil.

jdallen

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 847
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #38 on: February 12, 2014, 06:48:18 PM »
@ Theta - it is inevitable, the arguments now mostly revolve around when. ;)

I'm not going to get too excited yet over Max extent.... Yet.

Extent has by nature become highly volatile, I'm more confident in volume as a "canary in the coal mine".  I'm with OldLeatherneck here - April Fools will be the point which will start to determine how much heartburn I will suffer during the melt season.
This space for Rent.

Buddy

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 188
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #39 on: February 12, 2014, 07:45:32 PM »
I have a VERY simple mind.  VERY SIMPLE.  And here is what my simple mind is telling me:

1) The longer we have a warm anomaly in both SST and air temperatures in the Arctic.....the worse it is going to be when melt season starts.

2)  If we go for another month with MOSTLY warm anomaly in SST and air temperatures......then the Arctic becomes VERY VULNERABLE....and it is likely looking at close to a record low or an outright record low.

3)  I know there are "other things" like storms (or lack of storms) that can also have an effect.

But this year is just "short term" stuff.  The DIRECTION of the LONG TERM is easy:  More energy coming into the earth than is leaving the earth.  For anyone other than someone from a Hans Christian Anderson fair tale.......or a couple of meteorologists who likewise have "no clothes".....it is easy to see.  It reminds me how silly the CEO's and physicians looked as they talked about the "safety" of smoking and non-addictive nature of nicotine in these two SHORT video clips:

"Scientists" Shill for Tobacco


1994 - Tobacco Company CEOs Testify Before Congress


So while "we" watch to see with anticipation (and I do too:).... what will happen in the very short term (this year or the next few years).....the longer term (next 30 years +) is already set in stone.









FOX News....."Where truth and journalism are dead."

crandles

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 660
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #40 on: February 12, 2014, 08:13:44 PM »
With the possibility of an El-nino being quite high, it makes me shudder to think that this year could see the Arctic either crash to record low values or even to an ice free state during late or mid-summer.

Nino 3.4 looks negative in Feb 2014. Even if something starts to happen in March, the SH temperature effects lag by 3 or 4 months and the global temperature effects lag by around 5 or 6 months. So I suspect any extra heat entering the arctic will lag by more than 6 months. Extra heat arriving in September is likely too late to affect melt season much. Therefore I suspect we have already run out of time for an El Nino to affect the coming melt season, unless there is some different teleconnection.

Record low looks a possibility. But ice free ? Hmm, where is that coming from when we have more ice volume and more MYI? OK maybe we might get down to similar ice volume at max and a perfect early start to the melt season with a major cracking event in April causing open areas at southern locations that can trap some heat together with ideal dipole patterns for bringing warm winds.... But perfect conditions are unlikely to last a whole melt season.

2007 brought ice volume down to 2.5k km^3 below previous lowest and if that happened again we would be down to 1k Km^3. I am a little sceptical of that being possible. It would be over 4k Km^3 below the previous year to less than 20% of 2013 minimum volume. I think the pattern of declining late season melt is showing that it gets harder to melt the remaining ice as the models seem to anticipate. I am not saying this guarantees a long tail, it could be quite short if the early season melt continues to accelerate faster than the late season slow down. However, a non-existent tail (ie complete melt out this year) does seem very very unlikely.

Theta

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 29
  • Optimistic Pessimist
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #41 on: February 12, 2014, 08:44:03 PM »
With the possibility of an El-nino being quite high, it makes me shudder to think that this year could see the Arctic either crash to record low values or even to an ice free state during late or mid-summer.

Nino 3.4 looks negative in Feb 2014. Even if something starts to happen in March, the SH temperature effects lag by 3 or 4 months and the global temperature effects lag by around 5 or 6 months. So I suspect any extra heat entering the arctic will lag by more than 6 months. Extra heat arriving in September is likely too late to affect melt season much. Therefore I suspect we have already run out of time for an El Nino to affect the coming melt season, unless there is some different teleconnection.

Record low looks a possibility. But ice free ? Hmm, where is that coming from when we have more ice volume and more MYI? OK maybe we might get down to similar ice volume at max and a perfect early start to the melt season with a major cracking event in April causing open areas at southern locations that can trap some heat together with ideal dipole patterns for bringing warm winds.... But perfect conditions are unlikely to last a whole melt season.

2007 brought ice volume down to 2.5k km^3 below previous lowest and if that happened again we would be down to 1k Km^3. I am a little sceptical of that being possible. It would be over 4k Km^3 below the previous year to less than 20% of 2013 minimum volume. I think the pattern of declining late season melt is showing that it gets harder to melt the remaining ice as the models seem to anticipate. I am not saying this guarantees a long tail, it could be quite short if the early season melt continues to accelerate faster than the late season slow down. However, a non-existent tail (ie complete melt out this year) does seem very very unlikely.

I based my opinion purely on the Extent of the Arctic Ice so the chances of me being incorrect are extremely high.

Perhaps death is taunting us with misplaced joy, making one think that earth will flourish everlastingly while his gaping maw awaits the river of corpses that will continue to flow and wash away the features of this planet; leaving behind only bare soil.

jdallen

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 847
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #42 on: February 12, 2014, 09:29:32 PM »
I'd say... Past behavior may be an inadequate predictor of coming change.  Like the stock market, we are trying to hit a moving target, full of chaotic interactions, which frequently do the utterly unpredictable... Like 2007 and 2012... counter to many indices.
This space for Rent.

crandles

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 660
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #43 on: February 13, 2014, 12:51:56 AM »


2009 had similarly high temp but only at about day 30.
2006 had higher but at about day 25.
2000 had higher but only before day 10 and at about day 75.
1994 had similar but about day 75.
1992 had higher but about day 80.
1976 had higher but about day 90.
1974 had higher but at about day 30.
1972 had similar around day 65 and higher at about day 70.

So for between day 30 and day 65, more than just February which appears to be coldest month, this looks like it might be a record high average temperature north of 80N in the last 57 years.

jdallen

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 847
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #44 on: February 13, 2014, 02:12:47 AM »

2009 had similarly high temp but only at about day 30.
2006 had higher but at about day 25.
2000 had higher but only before day 10 and at about day 75.
1994 had similar but about day 75.
1992 had higher but about day 80.
1976 had higher but about day 90.
1974 had higher but at about day 30.
1972 had similar around day 65 and higher at about day 70.

So for between day 30 and day 65, more than just February which appears to be coldest month, this looks like it might be a record high average temperature north of 80N in the last 57 years.

Quite likely true.  However, to my point... At the end of the melt seasons...
 2009 - volume was down slightly
 2006 - volume mostly unchanged (<100 KM3)
 2000 - volume mostly unchanged (<100 KM3)
 1994 - volume went up sharply
 1992 - volume went up sharply
(Care of JimPetit)
I don't have numbers for 74 or 76, but I think this makes my point, short term, as in this melt season, the higher temperatures are not predictive. Short term, the system is both too volatile and chaotic.

That said, we cannot rule out this foreshadowing a crash.
chaos is just that truculent.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2014, 02:20:26 AM by jdallen »
This space for Rent.

OldLeatherneck

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 361
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #45 on: February 13, 2014, 02:49:52 AM »

2009 had similarly high temp but only at about day 30.
2006 had higher but at about day 25.
2000 had higher but only before day 10 and at about day 75.
1994 had similar but about day 75.
1992 had higher but about day 80.
1976 had higher but about day 90.
1974 had higher but at about day 30.
1972 had similar around day 65 and higher at about day 70.

Crandles,

Thanks for bringing up the topic of the DMI Temps at 80o N in relationship to the gain/loss of Arctic Sea Ice.  This is something that has been of interest to me recently.  The other day I made a crude attempt to plot the DMI Temp data for the first 100 days of the year versus the 7 day gain/loss for IJIS Extent.  Since I had no access to the raw DMI data, I had to crop a picture of the DMI plot and elongate it to fit the corresponding Excel plot for the given year.  The results were rather ugly, in terms of professional graphics provided by the likes of Jim Pettit. 

Since this method of analysis is rather labor consuming I only did the years of 2011 and 2012.  Eyeball analysis (opposed to scientific) of the 2012 data implies a strong relationship between the DMI temps and current IJIS Extent gains/losses for the same period of time.  The 2011 results did not show many, if any, indications that there is a causative relationship between the two.

I spent most of my career analyzing raw data, from the days we collected and plotted it by hand, through the days it spit out of line printers, to being able to plot it using first Lotus 1-2-3, to the current day of having Excel and platforms designed for data collection/analysis.  I learned the hard way that forming conclusions from limited data samples is not a career enhancing venture.  That is why I didn't post the two plots I've made to date.

Does anyone know a means of getting the raw DMI Temp data in a raw format that can be plotted versus any of the desired  extent/area/volume data for any given year/date??

I'm willing to share the two plots I've made for 2011 and 2012, with the disclaimer that they do not meet any professional standard for graphics excellence!!

« Last Edit: February 13, 2014, 03:09:23 AM by OldLeatherneck »
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

wili

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 994
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #46 on: February 13, 2014, 03:00:53 AM »
I haven't been following this stuff closely this year, but I have noticed that there have been pretty consistently strong winds pouring south over the Fram Strait during the last few days/weeks.

Does anyone know if this has corresponded to significant transport loss through that route?
« Last Edit: February 13, 2014, 03:20:35 AM by wili »

Wipneus

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1293
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #47 on: February 13, 2014, 07:11:38 AM »
I haven't been following this stuff closely this year, but I have noticed that there have been pretty consistently strong winds pouring south over the Fram Strait during the last few days/weeks.

Does anyone know if this has corresponded to significant transport loss through that route?

Wili, I follow the Fram Strait closely and have been posting animations of the sea ice at irregular intervals in the "home brew" thread.

Since the first week of January or so, winds have been dominantly from the south and transport has been nearly zero or even negative. This unseasonal behavior has caused low sea ice in the Greenland Sea, leading to nearly record low anomaly in the CT graph (near 2003) last week. The open ocean north of Svalbard is also an indication how the winds have blown.

In the last week or so, the transport seems to be starting up again. To early to be sure.

jdallen

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 847
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #48 on: February 13, 2014, 08:17:11 AM »
Does anyone know if this has corresponded to significant transport loss through that route?
In the last week or so, the transport seems to be starting up again. To early to be sure.

I've been keeping something of a "weather eye" on the Fram as well.  Not much export at all, for a while.  As to how free of ice Svalbard and evirons have been... I blame that as much as extraordinarily high SST's from positively "hot" Atlantic water upwelling near the islands or being driven north by the wind.
This space for Rent.

BornFromTheVoid

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 379
    • View Profile
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #49 on: February 13, 2014, 11:54:23 AM »
Looks like the IJIS/JAXA extent is lowest on record for the 12th by just over 109k.