Author Topic: 2014 sea ice area and extent data (Read 651478 times)

Wipneus · « **Reply #700 on:** July 15, 2014, 07:49:14 AM »

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Wednesday of about -56k.

After some failed attempts a useful data file was uploaded yesterday, too late for a timely report.

In area big contributors where CAA, Kara and CAB. The ESS had a big uptick.

The extent decline is dominated by Kara, all other regions had only small changes.

The details:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data Date: 2014-07-13 12:00 Values in 1000 km^2 Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values Extent (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 4376.4 -6.6 -61.7 883.9 +1.2 +2.4 298.8 -0.5 -338.2 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 601.4 -31.4 -67.5 99.6 -1.3 -128.5 357.9 -1.9 -117.3 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 149.8 -9.8 -313.9 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 304.8 -8.2 -185.9 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 644.8 -1.2 -42.3 282.2 -6.9 -132.9 321.6 -0.7 -54.9 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 1.2 -0.6 -0.1 23.4 -3.7 +23.4 169.0 +14.6 +39.7 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 23.3 -4.2 +23.3 8369.1 -75.8 -1394.0 Area (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 3890.4 -28.1 +126.9 632.7 +44.2 +6.7 134.6 -4.0 -290.2 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 288.4 -31.4 -125.4 41.7 +1.1 -68.7 173.4 +0.3 -61.3 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 62.5 -1.5 -170.1 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 131.4 -3.9 -99.3 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 459.0 -32.2 -35.4 161.5 -8.7 -124.7 177.9 -8.4 -70.4 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 0.2 -0.5 -0.2 7.3 -2.1 +7.3 93.7 +10.6 +35.9 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 5.4 -1.1 +5.4 6166.5 -76.3 -899.5

Jim Pettit · « **Reply #701 on:** July 15, 2014, 12:29:40 PM »

IJIS Extent:

7,825,967 km2 (14 July)

Down 6,622,449 km2 (45.84%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.

4,648,512 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).

Down 73,894 km2 from previous day.

Down 617,883 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -88,269 km2).

Down 1,231,590 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -87,971 km2).

939,851 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

46,804 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

28,272 km2 below 2013 value for this date.

149,314 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest July to-date average.

Fourth lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (5.64% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (7.18%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (28.72%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (41.54%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

CT Area:

6,176,108 km2 (14 July [Day 0.5315])

Down 7,311,229 km2 (54.21%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].

3,942,098 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).

Down 175,672 km2 from previous day.

Down 684,029 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -97,718 km2).

Down 1,363,370 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -97,384 km2).

326,936 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

372,099 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

111,095 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

926,047 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Eighth lowest July to-date average.

Seventh lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (6.15% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

21 days (10.77%) have recorded the second lowest.

17 days (8.72%) have recorded the third lowest.

50 days in total (25.64%) have been among the lowest three on record.

Wipneus · « **Reply #702 on:** July 15, 2014, 05:23:49 PM »

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Thursday of about -150k.

That can be mostly attributed to the CAB (-78k) and the CAA (-41k), small area changes in other
regions.

By extent more than half of the total (-102k) is in Kara (-32k) and Laptev (-28k). Baffin/Hudson and Greenland Sea take care of the rest.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data Date: 2014-07-14 12:00 Values in 1000 km^2 Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values Extent (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 4375.1 -1.3 -62.4 883.9 +0.0 +7.4 271.1 -27.7 -359.3 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 569.6 -31.8 -85.7 105.1 +5.5 -115.5 338.2 -19.7 -128.5 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 137.2 -12.7 -313.9 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 288.2 -16.6 -179.4 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 636.6 -8.1 -48.4 287.3 +5.0 -124.1 319.0 -2.6 -52.4 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 5.4 +4.2 +4.1 23.4 +0.1 +23.4 171.3 +2.3 +42.7 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 26.6 +3.3 +26.6 8266.8 -102.4 -1408.0 Area (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 3812.3 -78.2 +57.6 639.0 +6.4 +23.2 127.7 -6.9 -289.0 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 278.1 -10.3 -126.3 43.0 +1.3 -62.3 172.3 -1.2 -57.6 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 58.4 -4.2 -164.3 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 122.3 -9.0 -94.8 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 418.5 -40.5 -71.9 152.9 -8.6 -127.5 178.4 +0.5 -63.0 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 1.5 +1.3 +1.1 7.5 +0.1 +7.5 90.4 -3.3 +33.1 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 5.5 +0.1 +5.5 6017.4 -149.1 -961.6

crandles · « **Reply #703 on:** July 16, 2014, 01:29:06 AM »

CT area with Wipneus' updates:
6.176 - 0.056 - 0.150 = 5.97

which then compares with
2012.5370 -1.8941033 5.0465446
2007.5370 -1.6148530 5.3959823
2011.5370 -1.4563891 5.5544462
2010.5370 -1.3999220 5.6109133
2013.5370 -1.1054422 5.9053931
2008.5370 -1.0036800 5.9369679
2014
2006.5370 -0.9863998 6.0244355
2009.5370 -1.0075270 6.0033083
2005.5370 -0.7784215 6.2324138

7th lowest. Now 924k above 2012.

Jim Pettit · « **Reply #704 on:** July 16, 2014, 12:45:39 PM »

IJIS Extent:

7,745,907 km2 (15 July)

Down 6,702,509 km2 (46.39%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.

4,568,452 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).

Down 80,060 km2 from previous day.

Down 598,204 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -85,458 km2).

Down 1,311,650 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -87,443 km2).

935,079 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

50,008 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

3,192 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

151,199 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest July to-date average.

Fifth lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (5.61% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (7.14%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (28.57%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (41.33%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

Wipneus · « **Reply #705 on:** July 16, 2014, 04:32:08 PM »

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Friday of about -97k.

A century would have been assured if not for the lake ice that "increased" by +16k. ESS declined in a big way (-40k) followed by the CAB (-25k).

Most of the extent decline is again Hudson/Baffin and Greenland Sea: -91k. The ESS extent also declined substantially.

The details:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data Date: 2014-07-15 12:00 Values in 1000 km^2 Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values Extent (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 4388.8 +13.7 -48.0 851.9 -32.0 -19.3 272.4 +1.3 -350.9 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 557.6 -12.0 -83.7 99.3 -5.8 -113.9 303.1 -35.1 -154.8 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 129.5 -7.7 -308.9 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 240.1 -48.1 -204.5 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 632.2 -4.4 -50.7 303.7 +16.4 -103.7 301.6 -17.4 -64.4 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 3.6 -1.8 +2.3 23.4 -0.0 +23.4 188.5 +17.2 +60.7 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 31.1 +4.5 +31.1 8138.3 -128.5 -1446.0 Area (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 3787.1 -25.1 +38.9 599.0 -40.1 -5.9 115.6 -12.1 -292.7 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 269.6 -8.6 -126.1 38.6 -4.4 -61.6 156.8 -15.4 -68.1 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 54.5 -3.9 -158.3 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 105.9 -16.4 -98.3 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 407.9 -10.6 -77.8 161.9 +9.0 -112.1 185.3 +6.9 -49.0 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 0.7 -0.9 +0.2 8.2 +0.7 +8.2 106.3 +15.9 +49.5 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 6.3 +0.9 +6.3 5897.4 -120.0 -996.1

Jim Pettit · « **Reply #706 on:** July 17, 2014, 12:52:10 PM »

IJIS Extent:

7,656,338 km2 (16 July)

Down 6,792,078 km2 (47.01%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.

4,478,883 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).

Down 89,569 km2 from previous day.

Down 580,091 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -82,870 km2).

Down 1,401,219 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -87,576 km2).

942,986 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

60,973 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

34,418 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

188,148 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest July to-date average.

Fifth lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (5.58% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (7.11%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (28.43%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (41.12%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

CT Area:

5,960,527 km2 (16 July [Day 0.537])

Down 7,526,810 km2 (55.81%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].

3,726,518 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).

Down 148,882 km2 from previous day.

Down 721,205 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -103,029 km2).

Down 1,578,951 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -98,684 km2).

356,184 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

344,962 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

55,134 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

913,983 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Eighth lowest July to-date average.

Seventh lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (6.09% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

21 days (10.66%) have recorded the second lowest.

17 days (8.63%) have recorded the third lowest.

50 days in total (25.38%) have been among the lowest three on record.

Buddy · « **Reply #707 on:** July 17, 2014, 03:00:36 PM »

Over the next 6 weeks we'll see what kind of shape the ice is in. Does it "fall apart" and approach the extent of 2012?

There is soot from the fires in Canada and Russia that should have an impact on helping to melt the ice....and there is the warm water runoff from rivers coming from the north coast of Russia.

Will be interesting to watch as always.....

DavidR · « **Reply #708 on:** July 17, 2014, 03:16:45 PM »

Buddy,
I don't think you will need 6 weeks. In 3 weeks extent will be lower than in 2012. After that weather will determine where the final extent goes. For the next three weeks it's just physics after that it's just guessworks!

Siffy · « **Reply #709 on:** July 17, 2014, 03:31:42 PM »

Quote from: DavidR on July 17, 2014, 03:16:45 PM

Buddy,
I don't think you will need 6 weeks. In 3 weeks extent will be lower than in 2012. After that weather will determine where the final extent goes. For the next three weeks it's just physics after that it's just guessworks!

I don't know how you can be so confident in asserting this, melt ponding is significantly less than in 2012, area is massively higher right now even extent is higher.

How on earth do you project busting the 2012 extent record?

Wipneus · « **Reply #710 on:** July 17, 2014, 04:36:15 PM »

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Saturday of about -116k.

The CAB continues its nosedive (-71k) and is now below the 1981-2010 normal.

By extent the winner is Laptev with a huge -71k. ESS and CAA have an uptick.

The details:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data Date: 2014-07-16 12:00 Values in 1000 km^2 Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values Extent (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 4377.6 -11.2 -58.4 873.1 +21.2 +7.8 201.8 -70.7 -414.1 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 554.0 -3.6 -73.7 105.3 +6.0 -100.5 311.1 +8.0 -138.6 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 123.4 -6.0 -302.0 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 239.5 -0.6 -183.0 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 647.4 +15.2 -33.1 305.0 +1.3 -98.7 278.8 -22.8 -81.9 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 4.2 +0.6 +2.9 29.6 +6.2 +29.6 208.5 +20.0 +81.4 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 22.2 -9.0 +22.2 8072.8 -65.4 -1421.6 Area (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 3716.0 -71.2 -25.6 584.4 -14.6 -9.6 93.6 -22.0 -306.4 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 262.2 -7.4 -124.6 42.7 +4.1 -52.8 148.2 -8.6 -71.9 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 50.2 -4.3 -153.0 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 108.0 +2.1 -84.0 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 419.6 +11.7 -61.0 167.4 +5.5 -101.0 167.9 -17.5 -59.8 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 1.3 +0.6 +0.9 11.1 +3.0 +11.1 103.6 -2.7 +47.2 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 4.7 -1.6 +4.7 5777.2 -120.2 -1033.0

crandles · « **Reply #711 on:** July 17, 2014, 04:54:38 PM »

CT area with Wipneus' updates:
5.961 - 0.097 - 0.116 = 5.748

which then compares with
2012.5425 -1.9339440 4.8619661
2007.5425 -1.7199858 5.1609564
2011.5425 -1.4976548 5.3832874
2010.5425 -1.3953036 5.4856386
2013.5425 -1.3692197 5.5117226
2014
2008.5425 -1.0002406 5.7956696
2009.5425 -1.0623468 5.8185954
2006.5425 -0.9559178 5.9250245
2005.5425 -0.8303298 6.0506125

6th lowest. Now 886k above 2012.

DavidR · « **Reply #712 on:** July 18, 2014, 05:02:34 AM »

Siffy,
re: How on earth do you project busting the 2012 extent record?

see the July SIPN thread at:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,917.msg30637.html#msg30637
for the explanation.

jdallen · « **Reply #713 on:** July 18, 2014, 06:19:23 AM »

Quote from: DavidR on July 18, 2014, 05:02:34 AM

Siffy,
re: How on earth do you project busting the 2012 extent record?

see the July SIPN thread at:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,917.msg30637.html#msg30637
for the explanation.

I expect the answer is... thin ice and a hot August

DavidR · « **Reply #714 on:** July 18, 2014, 10:32:50 AM »

I factored in the thin ice, but not the Hot August Night.

Jim Pettit · « **Reply #715 on:** July 18, 2014, 12:52:20 PM »

IJIS Extent:

7,577,065 km2 (17 July)

Down 6,871,351 km2 (47.56%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.

4,399,610 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).

Down 79,273 km2 from previous day.

Down 558,897 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -79,842 km2).

Down 1,480,492 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -87,088 km2).

941,391 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

66,327 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

43,213 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

203,018 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest July to-date average.

Fifth lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (5.56% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (7.07%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (28.28%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (40.91%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

CT Area:

5,863,870 km2 (17 July [Day 0.5397])

Down 7,623,467 km2 (56.52%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].

3,629,860 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).

Down 96,658 km2 from previous day.

Down 728,103 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -104,015 km2).

Down 1,675,609 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -98,565 km2).

364,439 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

328,162 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

80,333 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

826,937 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Seventh lowest July to-date average.

Seventh lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (6.06% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

21 days (10.61%) have recorded the second lowest.

17 days (8.59%) have recorded the third lowest.

50 days in total (25.25%) have been among the lowest three on record.

Wipneus · « **Reply #716 on:** July 18, 2014, 04:13:37 PM »

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Sunday of about -126k.

That is in large part due to the CAB that is falling faster and faster (-87k). Laptev had a big decline (-30) but the increase in ESS is bigger (+38k).

By extent the decline in Laptev is even more impressive (-57k), folowed by Hudson (-50) and Beaufort (-37). Chukchi has a remarkable uptick (+26k).

The details:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data Date: 2014-07-17 12:00 Values in 1000 km^2 Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values Extent (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 4385.5 +7.8 -49.7 882.0 +8.8 +23.2 144.6 -57.1 -463.4 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 529.7 -24.3 -84.8 94.6 -10.6 -103.7 332.4 +21.3 -109.7 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 118.6 -4.8 -293.5 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 189.4 -50.1 -211.5 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 641.0 -6.4 -36.8 268.5 -36.5 -131.8 304.5 +25.7 -50.7 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 3.6 -0.6 +2.3 28.4 -1.1 +28.4 215.8 +7.3 +89.4 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 22.8 +0.6 +22.8 7945.5 -127.3 -1458.9 Area (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 3628.7 -87.3 -107.2 622.0 +37.6 +39.5 63.8 -29.7 -328.2 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 260.7 -1.5 -117.3 39.4 -3.2 -51.3 143.2 -5.0 -72.4 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 49.4 -0.8 -144.4 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 92.3 -15.7 -88.4 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 428.2 +8.6 -46.4 151.6 -15.8 -112.1 155.6 -12.2 -65.7 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 1.2 -0.1 +0.8 9.9 -1.2 +9.9 103.8 +0.3 +48.0 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 4.9 +0.2 +4.9 5650.9 -126.2 -1078.2

crandles · « **Reply #717 on:** July 18, 2014, 04:38:10 PM »

CT area with Wipneus' updates:
5.864 - 0.116 - 0.126 = 5.622

which then compares with
2012.5452 -1.8992873 4.8000555
2007.5452 -1.6774523 5.1184578
2011.5452 -1.5133703 5.2825398
2013.5452 -1.4445593 5.3513508
2010.5452 -1.3367255 5.4591846
2014
2008.5452 -1.0541264 5.6452165
2009.5452 -1.1255500 5.6703601
2006.5452 -0.9184806 5.8774295
2005.5452 -0.8281829 5.9677272

6th lowest. Down to just 822k above 2012.

Jim Pettit · « **Reply #718 on:** July 19, 2014, 01:00:54 PM »

IJIS Extent:

7,549,262 km2 (18 July)

Down 6,899,154 km2 (47.75%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.

4,371,807 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).

Down 27,803 km2 from previous day.

Down 491,576 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -70,225 km2).

Down 1,508,295 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -83,794 km2).

876,813 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

106,733 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

68,814 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

247,468 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Fourth lowest July to-date average.

Fifth lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (5.53% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (7.04%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (28.14%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (40.7%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

CT Area:

5,734,950 km2 (18 July [Day 0.5425])

Down 7,752,387 km2 (57.48%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].

3,500,941 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).

Down 128,920 km2 from previous day.

Down 813,488 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -116,213 km2).

Down 1,804,528 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -100,252 km2).

373,183 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

339,437 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

223,228 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

872,984 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Seventh lowest July to-date average.

Sixth lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (6.03% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

21 days (10.55%) have recorded the second lowest.

17 days (8.54%) have recorded the third lowest.

50 days in total (25.13%) have been among the lowest three on record.

Wipneus · « **Reply #719 on:** July 19, 2014, 04:12:02 PM »

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Monday of about -94k.

Area drops fastest in ESS, with Kara and CAA following at some distance.

Extent Has some big increases in Hudson (+47k) and Laptev (+36k). Declines in Kara, Chukchi and others cause the total to end up at nearly zero

The details:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data Date: 2014-07-18 12:00 Values in 1000 km^2 Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values Extent (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 4376.3 -9.2 -57.9 876.9 -5.0 +25.2 180.9 +36.3 -418.9 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 496.9 -32.8 -104.4 80.0 -14.7 -110.8 338.9 +6.5 -95.9 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 106.2 -12.3 -292.3 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 236.8 +47.4 -142.8 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 647.5 +6.5 -27.4 267.8 -0.7 -129.1 285.2 -19.3 -64.2 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 4.2 +0.6 +2.9 24.6 -3.8 +24.6 198.5 -17.3 +73.0 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 21.0 -1.8 +21.0 7943.3 -2.3 -1370.1 Area (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 3617.7 -10.9 -114.1 587.3 -34.7 +17.0 74.8 +10.9 -309.5 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 242.2 -18.5 -127.2 36.2 -3.3 -50.1 140.2 -3.0 -71.0 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 45.4 -4.0 -139.1 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 100.1 +7.8 -70.0 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 412.5 -15.7 -55.2 144.0 -7.6 -115.1 146.5 -9.1 -68.7 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 1.7 +0.4 +1.3 8.8 -1.1 +8.8 97.4 -6.5 +42.0 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 4.3 -0.6 +4.3 5561.5 -89.5 -1088.6

crandles · « **Reply #720 on:** July 19, 2014, 05:15:31 PM »

CT area with Wipneus' updates:
5.735 - 0.126 - 0.094 = 5.515

which then compares with
2012.5480 -1.8911663 4.7199569
2011.5480 -1.6159903 5.0833526
2007.5480 -1.6067306 5.0926123
2013.5480 -1.4142262 5.2851167
2014
2010.5480 -1.1557142 5.543628
2008.5480 -1.0355102 5.5756130
2009.5480 -1.0811974 5.6181455
2006.5480 -0.9050370 5.7943058
2005.5480 -0.7365247 5.9628181

5th lowest for day (from 6th lowest). But needs a 152k drop today to keep this position

Down to just 795k above 2012.

Jim Pettit · « **Reply #721 on:** July 20, 2014, 02:12:55 PM »

IJIS Extent:

7,518,544 km2 (19 July)

Down 6,929,872 km2 (47.96%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.

4,341,089 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).

Down 30,718 km2 from previous day.

Down 431,160 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -61,594 km2).

Down 1,539,013 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -81,001 km2).

815,107 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

145,880 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

106,188 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

303,045 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest July to-date average.

Fifth lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (5.5% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (7.%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (28.%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (40.5%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

CT Area:

5,606,236 km2 (19 July [Day 0.5452])

Down 7,881,101 km2 (58.43%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].

3,372,227 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).

Down 128,714 km2 from previous day.

Down 852,276 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -121,754 km2).

Down 1,933,242 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -101,750 km2).

409,597 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

306,363 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

254,885 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

806,181 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Seventh lowest July to-date average.

Sixth lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (6.% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

21 days (10.5%) have recorded the second lowest.

17 days (8.5%) have recorded the third lowest.

50 days in total (25.%) have been among the lowest three on record.

BornFromTheVoid · « **Reply #722 on:** July 20, 2014, 04:14:40 PM »

Update for the week to July 19th

The current 5 day mean is on 8,000,790km2 while the 1 day extent is at 7,903,920km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,392,040km2, a decrease from -1,411,770km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +416,680km2, a change from +280,760km2. We're currently 5th lowest on record, down from 4th last week.
The average daily change over the last 7 days was -85.0k/day, compared to the long term average of -87.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -104.4k/day.

The average long term change over the next week is -88.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -79.3k/day.

The loss so far this July is the 10th largest on record. To achieve an average July loss, a drop of 66.7k/day is required, with the largest loss requiring -137k/day and the smallest requiring -12k/day.

Wipneus · « **Reply #723 on:** July 20, 2014, 04:33:36 PM »

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Tuesday of about -74k.

The CAB contributes most (-42k) to that. Other regions don't change much in area.

In extent Kara keeps declining strongly (-46k) due to the compaction of ice in the eastern corner of this sea. Ice extent in Laptev increased (+20k), while Hudson managed to score a decline (-17k).

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data Date: 2014-07-19 12:00 Values in 1000 km^2 Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values Extent (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 4375.7 -0.6 -57.5 869.4 -7.5 +25.2 200.7 +19.8 -390.5 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 450.8 -46.2 -137.6 86.1 +6.1 -97.4 337.6 -1.3 -90.0 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 111.0 +4.7 -273.9 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 219.4 -17.4 -139.9 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 630.7 -16.8 -41.0 272.8 +5.0 -121.0 294.5 +9.3 -49.2 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 4.8 +0.6 +3.5 24.6 +0.0 +24.6 172.6 -25.9 +47.9 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 25.8 +4.9 +25.8 7903.8 -39.5 -1318.7 Area (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 3575.9 -41.8 -151.9 577.4 -9.9 +19.3 85.1 +10.3 -291.3 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 246.5 +4.3 -114.3 35.3 -0.9 -46.6 136.4 -3.8 -70.4 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 42.1 -3.3 -133.5 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 92.8 -7.3 -67.5 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 403.1 -9.4 -57.4 138.7 -5.3 -116.1 138.4 -8.0 -70.7 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 1.2 -0.4 +0.8 9.2 +0.4 +9.2 96.7 -0.7 +41.8 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 5.8 +1.5 +5.8 5487.8 -73.7 -1084.7

crandles · « **Reply #724 on:** July 20, 2014, 11:25:59 PM »

CT area with Wipneus' updates:
5.606 - 0.094 - 0.074 = 5.438

which then compares with
2012.5507 -1.8871813 4.6578474
2011.5507 -1.6804620 4.930661
2007.5507 -1.5513002 5.0598230
2013.5507 -1.3615118 5.249611
2010.5507 -1.2485458 5.3625774
2014
2009.5507 -1.0722600 5.5388632
2008.5507 -0.9379683 5.607060
2006.5507 -0.8931404 5.717982
2005.5507 -0.5839744 6.0271487

Back to 6th lowest for day.

Down to just 780k above 2012.

Jim Pettit · « **Reply #725 on:** July 21, 2014, 12:31:13 PM »

IJIS Extent:

7,489,716 km2 (20 July)

Down 6,958,700 km2 (48.16%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.

4,312,261 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).

Down 28,828 km2 from previous day.

Down 410,145 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -58,592 km2).

Down 1,567,841 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -78,392 km2).

746,648 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

180,342 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

135,493 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

332,920 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest July to-date average.

Fifth lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (5.47% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (6.97%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (27.86%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (40.3%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

CT Area:

5,534,944 km2 (20 July [Day 0.548])

Down 7,952,394 km2 (58.96%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].

3,300,934 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).

Down 71,292 km2 from previous day.

Down 816,836 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -116,691 km2).

Down 2,004,535 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -100,227 km2).

411,306 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

301,544 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

249,827 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

814,987 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Seventh lowest July to-date average.

Fifth lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (5.97% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

21 days (10.45%) have recorded the second lowest.

17 days (8.46%) have recorded the third lowest.

50 days in total (24.88%) have been among the lowest three on record.

Wipneus · « **Reply #726 on:** July 21, 2014, 04:58:09 PM »

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Wednesday of about -100k.

If it is a century it will be with the help (-13k) of lake "ice", included in the CT number. Other regions that decline substantially are Kara and CAB (again and again). The CAB that had a big positive anomaly just two weeks ago has now substantially under it. It is still the highest of recent years though, about 200k above 2013.

In extent it is just the Greenland Sea region that did a big move (-33k decline), not counting the lake "ice" not included in NSIDC ice index.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data Date: 2014-07-20 12:00 Values in 1000 km^2 Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values Extent (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 4369.2 -6.4 -62.5 875.1 +5.6 +38.8 197.7 -2.9 -384.3 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 446.7 -4.0 -129.0 88.7 +2.6 -88.0 304.4 -33.2 -115.9 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 112.5 +1.6 -258.6 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 216.3 -3.1 -124.3 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 637.2 +6.5 -30.9 277.2 +4.5 -113.7 284.6 -9.9 -53.5 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 2.4 -2.4 +1.1 26.3 +1.7 +26.3 142.8 -29.9 +18.7 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 22.2 -3.7 +22.2 7860.6 -43.2 -1272.3 Area (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 3542.0 -33.9 -180.6 566.3 -11.1 +19.2 79.2 -5.8 -288.9 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 218.2 -28.3 -133.9 33.7 -1.6 -44.3 130.0 -6.3 -72.4 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 42.4 +0.2 -124.6 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 89.9 -2.9 -61.1 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 400.7 -2.4 -52.8 143.7 +5.1 -107.0 135.3 -3.1 -68.0 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 0.5 -0.8 +0.0 10.1 +1.0 +10.1 83.3 -13.4 +28.8 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 5.9 +0.1 +5.9 5398.0 -89.9 -1098.3

Jim Pettit · « **Reply #727 on:** July 22, 2014, 12:45:16 PM »

IJIS Extent:

7,439,164 km2 (21 July)

Down 7,009,252 km2 (48.51%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.

4,261,709 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).

Down 50,552 km2 from previous day.

Down 386,803 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -55,258 km2).

Down 1,618,393 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -77,066 km2).

704,802 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

197,644 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

191,513 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

334,240 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest July to-date average.

Fifth lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (5.45% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (6.93%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (27.72%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (40.1%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

CT Area:

5,449,993 km2 (21 July [Day 0.5507])

Down 8,037,344 km2 (59.59%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].

3,215,983 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).

Down 84,951 km2 from previous day.

Down 726,115 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -103,731 km2).

Down 2,089,486 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -99,499 km2).

457,054 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

319,855 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

200,381 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

792,145 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Seventh lowest July to-date average.

Sixth lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (5.94% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

21 days (10.4%) have recorded the second lowest.

17 days (8.42%) have recorded the third lowest.

50 days in total (24.75%) have been among the lowest three on record.

Wipneus · « **Reply #728 on:** July 22, 2014, 04:09:55 PM »

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Thursday of about -53k.

Included in that number is about -8k for lake "ice". The remainder is taken care of by the ESS (-43k). The CAB interrupts it dive of the last week for a +22k rebound.

No extremes in extent, Kara and Laptev have the biggest declines.

The details:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data Date: 2014-07-21 12:00 Values in 1000 km^2 Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values Extent (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 4383.4 +14.1 -46.8 867.6 -7.5 +39.4 178.6 -19.1 -393.6 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 424.7 -22.1 -138.6 81.9 -6.8 -88.8 295.2 -9.2 -117.6 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 101.4 -11.1 -255.2 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 206.3 -10.0 -116.9 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 625.5 -11.7 -38.4 271.6 -5.7 -117.2 294.5 +9.9 -38.5 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 2.4 +0.0 +1.1 33.9 +7.6 +33.9 126.6 -16.1 +3.0 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 22.3 +0.1 +22.3 7789.1 -71.5 -1255.1 Area (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 3563.7 +21.7 -152.2 522.9 -43.4 -14.3 74.3 -4.9 -285.2 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 213.4 -4.8 -129.4 34.6 +0.9 -40.1 124.8 -5.3 -73.4 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 36.7 -5.6 -121.8 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 86.8 -3.1 -55.6 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 402.3 +1.6 -43.8 140.7 -3.1 -106.8 136.2 +0.9 -61.5 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 1.1 +0.6 +0.7 13.8 +3.7 +13.8 75.1 -8.2 +20.8 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 6.7 +0.8 +6.7 5358.0 -40.0 -1063.0

crandles · « **Reply #729 on:** July 22, 2014, 04:55:15 PM »

CT area with Wipneus' updates:
5.450 - 0.100 -0.053 = 5.297

which then compares with
2012.5562 -1.9031172 4.4972882
2011.5562 -1.7432072 4.7263017
2007.5562 -1.6159670 4.8535419
2013.5562 -1.4380591 5.0314498
2010.5562 -1.3313115 5.1381974
2014
2009.5562 -1.0759447 5.393564
2008.5562 -0.9697346 5.4306707
2005.5562 -0.9189570 5.550551
2006.5562 -0.9115970 5.5579119

Remains as 6th lowest for day.

Up to 800k above 2012.

Losses from day .5562 to minimum:
2012 2.263 2nd highest drop (edited from mistaken 2.623)
2008 2.427
2010 2.066
2009 1.969
2007 1.935
2011 1.821
2013 1.477
2005 1.459
2006 1.296

Further CT losses of 1.3 to ~~2.6~~ 2.4 is quite a range. A drop of 3.423 to become lowest on record seems well out of the range and seems exceedingly unlikely.

correction edit

deep octopus · « **Reply #730 on:** July 22, 2014, 05:30:13 PM »

Median post-2004 loss based on crandles' numbers is 2007 with 1.935 million km². Average loss is 1.897 million km², with a standard deviation of 0.444 million km².

To hit the 2005-2013 median means a minimum area somewhere between 2009 and 2010, at 3.362. Hitting the average gets 2014 a nick below 2009, at 3.400.

Early hints of a changing weather pattern favoring melt on the Pacific side to close out July. This pattern is more reminiscent of 2008 when major losses were observed on the Siberian side during the last weeks of the season, bringing the year very close to 2007. The thicker ice that has migrated to that area is going to be a force to reckon with though.

Frivolousz21 · « **Reply #731 on:** July 22, 2014, 07:58:53 PM »

Quote from: deep octopus on July 22, 2014, 05:30:13 PM

Median post-2004 loss based on crandles' numbers is 2007 with 1.935 million km². Average loss is 1.897 million km², with a standard deviation of 0.444 million km².

To hit the 2005-2013 median means a minimum area somewhere between 2009 and 2010, at 3.362. Hitting the average gets 2014 a nick below 2009, at 3.400.

Early hints of a changing weather pattern favoring melt on the Pacific side to close out July. This pattern is more reminiscent of 2008 when major losses were observed on the Siberian side during the last weeks of the season, bringing the year very close to 2007. The thicker ice that has migrated to that area is going to be a force to reckon with though.

The ESS is thicker this year but the Canadian basin is in shambles.

Jim Pettit · « **Reply #732 on:** July 23, 2014, 12:11:27 PM »

IJIS Extent:

7,360,364 km2 (22 July)

Down 7,088,052 km2 (49.06%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.

4,182,909 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).

Down 78,800 km2 from previous day.

Down 385,543 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -55,078 km2).

Down 1,697,193 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -77,145 km2).

688,990 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

198,241 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

229,533 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

318,347 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest July to-date average.

Fifth lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (5.42% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (6.9%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (27.59%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (39.9%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

CT Area:

5,341,096 km2 (22 July [Day 0.5535])

Down 8,146,241 km2 (60.4%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].

3,107,086 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).

Down 108,897 km2 from previous day.

Down 768,313 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -109,759 km2).

Down 2,198,382 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -99,926 km2).

488,729 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

296,645 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

134,678 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

803,616 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Seventh lowest July to-date average.

Sixth lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (5.91% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

21 days (10.34%) have recorded the second lowest.

17 days (8.37%) have recorded the third lowest.

50 days in total (24.63%) have been among the lowest three on record.

Wipneus · « **Reply #733 on:** July 23, 2014, 04:19:09 PM »

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Friday of about -77k.

No region makes a note worthy change in area.

In extent though, the Greenland Sea makes a huge drop (-71k) no doubt because the southern winds that blow in the Fram Strait

The details:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data Date: 2014-07-22 12:00 Values in 1000 km^2 Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values Extent (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 4386.6 +3.2 -41.8 865.6 -2.0 +45.9 154.9 -23.7 -407.0 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 410.1 -14.5 -140.9 77.4 -4.5 -87.9 224.1 -71.2 -181.3 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 100.0 -1.4 -241.9 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 226.3 +20.0 -80.6 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 620.5 -5.0 -38.9 282.3 +10.7 -104.7 278.2 -16.2 -49.7 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 4.8 +2.4 +3.5 24.1 -9.8 +24.1 140.3 +13.6 +16.9 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 19.8 -2.5 +19.8 7674.5 -114.6 -1281.5 Area (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 3554.4 -9.3 -154.3 522.8 -0.1 -5.2 65.6 -8.7 -285.1 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 202.8 -10.5 -130.5 31.9 -2.6 -39.7 106.7 -18.1 -87.3 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 35.1 -1.6 -115.2 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 86.8 +0.1 -47.6 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 384.9 -17.4 -53.5 135.2 -5.5 -109.5 127.5 -8.7 -65.0 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 1.3 +0.2 +0.8 7.8 -6.0 +7.8 85.9 +10.8 +31.8 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 4.2 -2.5 +4.2 5267.1 -90.9 -1079.9

deep octopus · « **Reply #734 on:** July 23, 2014, 04:32:55 PM »

Looks like area on CT has now fallen below the September minima of 1980, 1983, and 1986. So begins the passage through time, as we slide by year after year. The now regular lapping of these years starting with the high in 1980, two months out, will never cease to give me such haunted perspective.

Jim Pettit · « **Reply #735 on:** July 24, 2014, 12:39:32 PM »

IJIS Extent:

7,331,934 km2 (22 July)

Down 7,116,482 km2 (49.25%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.

4,154,479 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).

Down 28,430 km2 from previous day.

Down 324,404 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -46,343 km2).

Down 1,725,623 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -75,027 km2).

628,929 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

243,442 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

272,858 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

392,796 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest July to-date average.

Fifth lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (5.39% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (6.86%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (27.45%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (39.71%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

CT Area:

5,291,750 km2 (23 July [Day 0.5562])

Down 8,195,588 km2 (60.77%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].

3,057,740 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).

Down 49,346 km2 from previous day.

Down 668,778 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -95,540 km2).

Down 2,247,729 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -97,727 km2).

424,796 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

354,752 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

260,300 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

794,461 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Seventh lowest July to-date average.

Sixth lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (5.88% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

21 days (10.29%) have recorded the second lowest.

17 days (8.33%) have recorded the third lowest.

50 days in total (24.51%) have been among the lowest three on record.

Wipneus · « **Reply #736 on:** July 24, 2014, 04:17:48 PM »

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area increase next Saturday of about +32k.

Half of that uptick is lake "ice". The ice-area in the other regions make only small changes.

In extent the Greenland Sea makes an increase (+73k) that is almost the same as the decline of yesterday, showing how volatile these daily change data are.

The details:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data Date: 2014-07-23 12:00 Values in 1000 km^2 Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values Extent (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 4384.6 -2.0 -41.9 856.8 -8.8 +46.4 144.0 -10.9 -407.6 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 415.3 +5.1 -124.0 82.4 +5.0 -77.3 296.8 +72.8 -101.2 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 107.3 +7.4 -220.4 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 197.3 -29.0 -94.5 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 625.1 +4.6 -29.7 286.1 +3.7 -98.8 280.6 +2.3 -42.0 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 2.4 -2.4 +1.1 23.4 -0.6 +23.4 209.0 +68.7 +85.9 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 18.9 -0.9 +18.9 7721.1 +46.6 -1147.6 Area (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 3538.0 -16.4 -164.0 528.9 +6.1 +10.2 64.6 -1.0 -277.2 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 208.5 +5.6 -115.9 35.6 +3.6 -33.1 117.1 +10.4 -72.7 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 40.0 +4.9 -102.6 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 75.8 -11.1 -51.2 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 396.8 +11.9 -34.2 135.2 -0.0 -106.6 124.6 -2.9 -62.6 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 0.8 -0.5 +0.3 7.5 -0.3 +7.5 102.2 +16.3 +48.2 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 3.7 -0.5 +3.7 5276.9 +9.8 -998.5

crandles · « **Reply #737 on:** July 24, 2014, 06:14:54 PM »

CT area with Wipneus' updates:
5.292 - 0.077 + 0.032 = 5.247

which then compares with
2012.5616 -1.8369485 4.4251924
2011.5616 -1.7875658 4.5535083
2007.5616 -1.6612483 4.6798258
2013.5616 -1.4770833 4.8639908
2010.5616 -1.3216673 5.019406
2008.5616 -1.0237910 5.2383499
2014
2009.5616 -1.0287191 5.3123550
~~2014~~
2005.5616 -0.9411551 5.3999190
2006.5616 -0.9387013 5.4023728

To ~~8th~~ 7th lowest for day (from 6th lowest).
Up to 822k above 2012.

Losses from day .5616 to minimum and where we end if losses from now on are the same
2005   1.308   3.939
2006   1.372   3.875
2007   1.761   3.486
2008   2.234   3.013
2009   1.887   3.36
2010   1.942   3.305
2011   1.649   3.598
2012   2.191   3.056
2013   1.31     3.937

07+Average   1.853   3.394 (6th lowest)

07+Average+sd   2.173   3.074 (5th lowest)
07+Average-sd   1.534   3.713 (8th lowest)

Hope I have got it right this time. Using daily CT area minimums of
2012   2.234
2011   2.905
2007   2.919
2008   3.004
2010   3.0772
2009   3.425
2013   3.554
2006   4.03
2005   4.092

Further CT losses of 1.3 to 2.2 is still quite a range. Typical reductions like years 2007 onwards leads to 5 to 8th lowest area. A drop of 3.013 to become lowest on record seems well out of the range and seems exceedingly unlikely.

Patrick · « **Reply #738 on:** July 24, 2014, 10:26:11 PM »

Quote from: crandles (emphasis mine) on July 24, 2014, 06:14:54 PM

CT area with Wipneus' updates:
5.292 - 0.077 + 0.032 = 5.247

which then compares with
2012.5616 -1.8369485 4.4251924
2011.5616 -1.7875658 4.5535083
2007.5616 -1.6612483 4.6798258
2013.5616 -1.4770833 4.8639908
2010.5616 -1.3216673 5.019406
2008.5616 -1.0237910 5.2383499
2009.5616 -1.0287191 5.3123550
2014
2005.5616 -0.9411551 5.3999190
2006.5616 -0.9387013 5.4023728

To 8th lowest for day (from 6th lowest).
Up to 822k above 2012.
...

crandles, I think you made a little mistake. 2014 shoud be on 7th lowest position ahead of 2009.

crandles · « **Reply #739 on:** July 25, 2014, 01:10:47 AM »

Quote from: Patrick on July 24, 2014, 10:26:11 PM

crandles, I think you made a little mistake. 2014 shoud be on 7th lowest position ahead of 2009.

Quite right thank you.

Jim Pettit · « **Reply #740 on:** July 25, 2014, 01:22:10 PM »

IJIS Extent:

7,297,610 km2 (23 July)

Down 7,150,806 km2 (49.49%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.

4,120,155 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).

Down 34,324 km2 from previous day.

Down 279,455 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -39,922 km2).

Down 1,759,947 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -73,331 km2).

580,047 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

304,373 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

265,936 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

587,116 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest July to-date average.

Sixth lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (5.37% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (6.83%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (27.32%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (39.51%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

CT Area:

5,226,777 km2 (24 July [Day 0.559])

Down 8,260,560 km2 (61.25%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].

2,992,768 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).

Down 64,972 km2 from previous day.

Down 637,093 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -91,013 km2).

Down 2,312,701 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -96,363 km2).

404,544 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

372,310 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

369,680 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

777,370 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Seventh lowest July to-date average.

Sixth lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (5.85% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

21 days (10.24%) have recorded the second lowest.

17 days (8.29%) have recorded the third lowest.

50 days in total (24.39%) have been among the lowest three on record.

Wipneus · « **Reply #741 on:** July 25, 2014, 04:11:16 PM »

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area decline next Sunday of about -149k.

That is almost all caused by the CAB that scored a regional century (-129k).

CAB extent actually increased. Most of the extent decline is the Greenland Sea, which seems not have stopped its yo-yo movement.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data Date: 2014-07-24 12:00 Values in 1000 km^2 Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values Extent (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 4399.1 +14.4 -25.3 851.8 -5.0 +51.9 141.4 -2.5 -399.3 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 394.4 -20.9 -133.8 79.3 -3.1 -75.2 262.4 -34.5 -128.1 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 114.9 +7.6 -199.6 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 196.5 -0.8 -82.0 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 621.9 -3.2 -28.2 289.9 +3.8 -93.1 273.9 -6.6 -43.5 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 4.8 +2.4 +3.4 25.7 +2.3 +25.7 199.2 -9.8 +76.4 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 22.7 +3.8 +22.7 7678.8 -42.3 -1104.2 Area (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 3409.3 -128.7 -286.1 514.4 -14.5 +4.5 67.3 +2.7 -265.2 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 203.5 -5.0 -112.1 28.0 -7.5 -37.8 102.6 -14.5 -82.9 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 50.4 +10.3 -85.3 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 68.6 -7.2 -51.8 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 401.8 +5.0 -22.1 139.9 +4.7 -99.2 122.2 -2.5 -60.0 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 1.7 +0.9 +1.2 9.8 +2.4 +9.8 95.7 -6.5 +41.9 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 5.3 +1.6 +5.3 5124.7 -152.2 -1081.6

crandles · « **Reply #742 on:** July 25, 2014, 04:43:14 PM »

CT area with Wipneus' updates:
5.227 + 0.032 - 0.149 = 5.11

which then compares with
2012.5643 -1.8497235 4.341372
2011.5643 -1.8101107 4.4520302
2007.5643 -1.6556937 4.6064472
2013.5643 -1.4664060 4.7957349
2010.5643 -1.3231403 4.9390006
2014
2008.5643 -0.9735814 5.2175140
2005.5643 -0.9795458 5.2825952
2009.5643 -0.9544722 5.3076687
2006.5643 -0.8365948 5.425546

To 6th lowest for day (from 7th lowest).
Down to 769k above 2012.

Losses from day .5643 to minimum and where we end if losses from now on are the same
2005   1.191   3.919
2006   1.396   3.714
2007   1.687   3.423
2008   2.214   2.896
2009   1.883   3.227
2010   1.867   3.243
2011   1.547   3.563
2012   2.107   3.003
2013   1.241   3.869

07+Average   1.792285714   3.318 (6th lowest)
07+Average+2sd   2.458551641   2.651 (2nd lowest)
07+Average+sd   2.125418678   2.985 (4th lowest)
07+Average-sd   1.459152751   3.651 (8th lowest)
07+Average-2sd   1.126019787   3.984 (8th lowest)

Hope I have got it right this time (again).

Further CT losses of 1.1 to 2.2 is still quite a range. Typical reductions like years 2007 onwards leads to 4th to 8th lowest area. Dropping to become lowest on record is outside 3 standard deviations and therefore seems exceedingly unlikely.

deep octopus · « **Reply #743 on:** July 25, 2014, 04:56:03 PM »

A record low is not going to happen, but finding a spot among the worst years (I'm looking at 2008, 2010, or 2011) looks to be quite likely. Focusing on this, we find that 2014, wherever it lands, is perfectly consistent with the general, long-term downward trend of Arctic sea ice. Given the changing weather conditions, perhaps, the analogous year might be 2008 at this point. Whereas the melt has been pretty brisk week-on-week for the most part, the increased melt rates of other years like 2007 and 2012 around this time has apparently widened the gap. This day forward also marks the point when 2013 began a 10-day long plateau from which it wouldn't recover.

BornFromTheVoid · « **Reply #744 on:** July 25, 2014, 08:46:18 PM »

Using the 5 day trailing average, the daily loss over the last week was the 2nd lowest on record, beaten only by 1999. Shows just how big a slow down we're currently having.

Jim Pettit · « **Reply #745 on:** July 26, 2014, 01:37:12 PM »

IJIS Extent:

7,254,225 km2 (24 July)

Down 7,194,191 km2 (49.79%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.

4,076,770 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).

Down 43,385 km2 from previous day.

Down 295,037 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -42,148 km2).

Down 1,803,332 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -72,133 km2).

544,432 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

318,793 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

258,811 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

636,918 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Fourth lowest July to-date average.

Seventh lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (5.34% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (6.8%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (27.18%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (39.32%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

CT Area:

5,260,618 km2 (25 July [Day 0.5616])

Down 8,226,719 km2 (61.%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].

3,026,608 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).

Up 33,841 km2 from previous day.

Down 474,332 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -67,762 km2).

Down 2,278,861 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -91,154 km2).

292,554 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

436,075 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

396,627 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

835,425 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Seventh lowest July to-date average.

Seventh lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (5.83% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

21 days (10.19%) have recorded the second lowest.

17 days (8.25%) have recorded the third lowest.

50 days in total (24.27%) have been among the lowest three on record.

Jim Pettit · « **Reply #746 on:** July 26, 2014, 01:53:09 PM »

Quote from: BornFromTheVoid on July 25, 2014, 08:46:18 PM

Using the 5 day trailing average, the daily loss over the last week was the 2nd lowest on record, beaten only by 1999. Shows just how big a slow down we're currently having.

Indeed. JAXA extent has dropped just 1.8 million km2 so far this month, one of the lowest July-to-date decreases on record, and well below the 2003-2013 average for the span of 2.234 million km2. Extent is in 7th place now, just the seventh day this year it's been beyond 6th place, and the first time since mid-March. The gap between 2014 extent and 2012 extent is today the largest it's been all year. Ditto 2013. Ditto the 2010s average.

And so on.

Jim Pettit · « **Reply #747 on:** July 26, 2014, 03:20:56 PM »

Meanwhile, CT SIA increased about 39k km2 yesterday. That's the largest one-day increase since the last week of April. Coincidentally, it comes on the same day of the year (0.5616) that began the unprecedented 2013 slowdown (in which area increased by 20k km2 over a ten-day span that, on average, sees a drop of 600k or so).

Regardless of what happens over the next seven weeks or so, there is absolutely no way 2014 will end up with anything close to a record in either area, extent, or volume. SIA may struggle to drop below 4 million; extent might not fall below 5 million; volume may not cross the 6 million barrier.

Strange times indeed...

Wipneus · « **Reply #748 on:** July 26, 2014, 06:54:24 PM »

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area increase next Monday of about +11k.

That is mostly caused by CAB (+54k). The uptick would have been higher if lake "ice" wasn't included (-13k).

By ice extent dropped big in Kara (-39k). The extent over lakes dropped spectacular (-74k) but lake "ice" is not included in the NSIDC ice index.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data Date: 2014-07-25 12:00 Values in 1000 km^2 Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values Extent (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 4392.5 -5.9 -29.5 858.7 +5.6 +69.8 134.5 -11.4 -394.9 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 355.4 -39.0 -162.0 82.4 +3.1 -67.1 270.1 +7.1 -112.8 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 88.0 -0.2 -213.7 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 198.0 +26.0 -68.5 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 614.3 +4.9 -30.9 288.6 +1.3 -92.6 266.9 -5.8 -45.4 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 6.0 +1.2 +4.6 25.1 -3.3 +25.1 151.6 -73.7 +29.1 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 22.2 +1.1 +22.2 7602.5 -15.3 -1095.6 Area (value, one day change, anomaly): Arctic Basin East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea 3464.0 +53.7 -224.9 541.7 +13.3 +40.2 64.8 -3.7 -258.1 Kara Sea Barents Sea Greenland Sea 187.6 -15.9 -119.3 28.6 +0.6 -34.5 109.4 +6.7 -71.9 Baffin/Newfoundland Bay St. Lawrence Hudson Bay 30.5 -2.6 -98.7 0.0 +0.0 +0.0 72.6 +7.8 -41.8 Canadian Archipelago Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea 372.2 -20.4 -44.5 128.2 -9.0 -108.2 129.6 +1.1 -47.6 Bering Sea Sea of Okhotsk Lakes 1.2 -0.1 +0.7 8.4 -0.8 +8.4 90.4 -12.5 +36.6 Other regions Total (ex. lakes) 5.1 +0.8 +5.1 5144.1 +31.5 -995.1

crandles · « **Reply #749 on:** July 26, 2014, 09:37:28 PM »

CT area with Wipneus' updates:
5.261 - 0.149 + 0.011 = 5.123

which then compares with
2012.5671 -1.7546563 4.3680320
2011.5671 -1.7119933 4.479102
2007.5671 -1.6053082 4.5857873
2013.5671 -1.3639790 4.8271165
2010.5671 -1.3578354 4.8332601
2014
2008.5671 -0.9573579 5.1653304
2005.5671 -0.9658095 5.2252860
2009.5671 -0.9559036 5.2351918
2006.5671 -0.8841726 5.3069229

Remains 6th lowest for day.
Down to 755k above 2012.

Losses from day .5671 to minimum and where we end if losses from now on are the same
2005   1.133   3.977
2006   1.277   3.833
2007   1.666   3.444
2008   2.162   2.948
2009   1.811   3.299
2010   1.761   3.349
2011   1.574   3.536
2012   2.134   2.976
2013   1.273   3.837


07+Average   1.769   3.341 (6th lowest)
07+Average+3sd   2.705   2.405 (2nd lowest)
07+Average+2sd   2.393   2.717 (2nd lowest)
07+Average+sd   2.081   3.029 (5th lowest)
07+Average-sd   1.457   3.653 (8th lowest)
07+Average-2sd   1.145   3.965 (8th lowest)

Further CT losses of 1.1 to 2.1 is still quite a range. Typical reductions like years 2007 onwards leads to 5th to 8th lowest area. Dropping to become lowest on record is outside 3 standard deviations and therefore seems exceedingly unlikely.

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Author Topic: 2014 sea ice area and extent data (Read 651478 times)