2014 sea ice area and extent data

[Wipneus]

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Sat: -14k (-)
Sun: +10k

No noteworthy regional changes in area.

By extent we see increases in the CAA (+18k) and  the Greenland Sea (+16k).

The regional breakdown is as follows:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-18 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3863.4   +4.8  -378.0    201.8   +5.9  -238.3      9.6   +0.0  -258.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    84.3   +7.6  -125.4     88.8   -3.3   +45.4    176.8  +15.7   -68.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    40.8   +6.9   -29.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     13.4   -1.8   -12.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   422.2  +18.4   +16.3    152.2   -1.2   -94.9      1.8   -1.8  -129.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.2   +0.0    +1.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    243.2   +8.5  +111.5
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5056.3  +51.1 -1272.3

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3011.8   -6.9  -493.1     59.8   +4.4  -237.3      4.6   -0.4  -162.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    32.5   +0.3   -91.7     38.6   -2.2   +20.1     79.8   +5.5   -54.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    20.5   +4.0   -16.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      6.4   -0.9    -3.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   249.3   +7.8    +0.6     91.6   +1.1   -60.2      0.9   -0.4   -76.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.2   -0.0    +0.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    102.8   -2.4   +46.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   3595.9  +12.5 -1173.9

[crandles]

CT area with Wipneus' updates:
3.600 -0.014 + 0.010 = 3.596

Lowest CT published figure so far of 3.483 is 7th lowest year for area even if there is no further decline. Projection of 3.596 is 0.113 above this.

2 of last 25 years 8% do larger subsequent declines than 113k which would mean a later and lower minimum than 2014.6931 3.483

Next target is 3.425 for 6th lowest year for area on record so requires a further drop of 0.171 (1 of last 25 years 4% do larger subsequent declines.

Next target is 3.072 for 5th lowest year for area on record so requires a further drop of 0.524. Largest subsequent loss in last 25 year is 0.324 so, with limited data to assess a low probability, appears to be less than a 4% chance. Requires 62% higher subsequent loss than highest in last 25 years.

compared with same day of year:
2012.7178  -2.4808648   2.3654904
2007.7178  -1.8285471   2.9817195
2008.7178  -1.7760460   3.0703092
2011.7178  -1.5626673   3.2475994
2010.7178  -1.5229741   3.2872925
2014_______________3.596
2009.7178  -1.0589288   3.7513378
2013.7178  -1.0266076   3.7836590
2002.7178  -0.7100412   4.1002254

To 6th lowest for day (from 7th lowest last time I reported).
Down to 1231k above 2012.

Losses from day .7178 to subsequent minimum and where we end if movements this year follow the pattern of that years movements.
2005   0.022   3.574  (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2006   0.127   3.469 (7th Lowest)
2007   0.000   3.596 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2008   0.000   3.596 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2009   0.000   3.596 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2010   0.044   3.552 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2011   0.004   3.592 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2012   0.000   3.596 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)
2013   0.034   3.562 (already had 3.483 is 7th lowest)

Further CT losses for 2007 onwards range is down to 0.0 to 0.065 using just post 2006 years. 1995 managed a subsequent loss of 0.324. The last 20 years for average subsequent decline of 0.032 and standard deviation of 0.075. As the subsequent decline cannot be negative and the standard deviation is larger than average decline, this shows that the distribution is clearly not normally distributed. Therefore I have ceased providing information on 1, 2 and 3 standard deviation ranges.

Edits: changed lots of figures as I got confused with dates.

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS Extent:

4,927,138 km2 (19 September)

Up 29,074 km2 from previous day.

Down 8,709 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -1,244 km2).

Down 291,124 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -15,322 km2).

585,151 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

475,577 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

65,742 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

1,556,924 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

7th lowest September to-date average.

7th lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (4.2% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (5.34%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (21.37%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (30.92%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

CT Area:

3,588,243 km2 (19 September [Day 0.7151])

Down 11,615 km2 from previous day.

Up 30,772 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 4,396 km2).

Down 189,133 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -9,954 km2).

414,720 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

349,204 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

206,165 km2 below 2013 value for this date.

1,285,089 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Sixth lowest September to-date average.

Second lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (4.58% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

21 days (8.02%) have recorded the second lowest.

17 days (6.49%) have recorded the third lowest.

50 days in total (19.08%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[Wipneus]

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Sun: +10k (-)
Mon: +24k

No noteworthy regional changes in area.

By extent we see increases in the CAA (+34k) and  the Greenland Sea (+18k).

The regional breakdown is as follows:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-19 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3862.3   -1.0  -379.9    210.2   +8.4  -232.0      7.6   -1.9  -263.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    76.7   -7.6  -134.6     90.1   +1.3   +45.9    195.0  +18.2   -54.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    21.5  -19.2   -49.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     15.7   +2.3    -9.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   455.7  +33.5   +46.0    152.1   -0.1   -95.8      0.6   -1.2  -131.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   -1.2    -0.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    209.8  -33.4   +77.5
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5087.7  +31.4 -1258.9

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3016.5   +4.7  -496.6     62.8   +3.1  -236.7      3.5   -1.1  -165.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    33.6   +1.1   -91.7     39.7   +1.1   +20.6     92.6  +12.8   -45.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    13.6   -6.8   -23.8      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      6.8   +0.4    -3.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   263.9  +14.6   +12.1     89.1   -2.5   -64.6      0.4   -0.5   -78.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   -0.2    -0.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    101.7   -1.1   +44.7
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   3622.4  +26.5 -1173.2

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS Extent:

4,975,912 km2 (20 September)

Up 48,774 km2 from previous day.

Up 73,221 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 10,460 km2).

Down 242,350 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -12,118 km2).

588,490 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

477,047 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

52,820 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

1,548,836 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

7th lowest September to-date average.

7th lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (4.18% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (5.32%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (21.29%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (30.8%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

CT Area:

3,601,520 km2 (20 September [Day 0.7178])

Up 13,277 km2 from previous day.

Up 45,814 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 6,545 km2).

Down 175,856 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -8,793 km2).

409,168 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

344,408 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

182,139 km2 below 2013 value for this date.

1,236,030 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

7th lowest September to-date average.

6th lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (4.56% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

21 days (7.98%) have recorded the second lowest.

17 days (6.46%) have recorded the third lowest.

50 days in total (19.01%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[Wipneus]

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Mon: +24k (-)
Tue: +25k

Regionally the increase in teh CAB is biggest (+18k).

By extent we see a drop in the CAA (-25k) and  increases in CAB, Kara and the Greenland Sea (+12k, +11k and +18k)

The regional breakdown is as follows:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-20 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3874.2  +11.9  -369.4    212.9   +2.7  -231.9      7.6   +0.0  -267.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    87.5  +10.8  -125.8     89.5   -0.6   +44.4    212.5  +17.5   -40.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    20.3   -1.2   -51.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     13.4   -2.3   -12.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   430.5  -25.2   +16.5    155.3   +3.2   -93.6      0.6   +0.0  -132.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    170.3  -39.6   +37.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5104.3  +16.6 -1263.1

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3034.1  +17.6  -487.7     65.9   +3.0  -236.3      4.1   +0.6  -167.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    37.3   +3.8   -89.2     40.6   +1.0   +21.0    103.8  +11.2   -38.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    12.6   -1.1   -25.6      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      6.1   -0.7    -3.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   258.6   -5.3    +3.4     91.9   +2.9   -63.8      0.4   -0.0   -80.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     96.3   -5.5   +38.9
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   3655.3  +32.9 -1168.4

[jdallen]

I suspect we can call minimum.

That said, scavenged from the blog via Colorado Bob, we have this:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/513544/Arctic-ice-cap-death-spiral

I'm quite keen to see Wadham's numbers about thickness.  If verifiable, even partially, it could toss much of what's been getting said about a volume recovery right over the board.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to September 20th

The current 5 day mean is on 5,053,780km2 while the 1 day extent is at 5,114,980km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,292,730km2, an increase from -1,173,300km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at 959,890km2, a change from 1,082,290km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, down from 7th last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -4.6k/day, compared to the long term average of -5.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -6.7k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +36.9k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +25.5k/day.

The change so far this September is the 4th most negative on record. For September to achieve the largest gain, a daily increase of 129.9k/day is required, while the largest loss requires +12.3k/day, with an averaged September increase requiring +67.9k/day.





The minimum, of 5,015,800km2, appears to have been reached on the 18th of this month. This would make the 2014 minimum the 6th lowest on record.

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS Extent:

5,021,767 km2 (21 September)

Up 45,855 km2 from previous day.

Up 117,708 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 16,815 km2).

Down 196,495 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -9,357 km2).

569,584 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

487,331 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

34,001 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

1,580,564 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

7th lowest September to-date average.

7th lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (4.17% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (5.3%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (21.21%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (30.68%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

CT Area:

3,619,522 km2 (21 September [Day 0.7206])

Down 9,867,815 km2 (73.16%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].

1,385,513 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).

Up 18,002 km2 from previous day.

Up 61,072 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 8,725 km2).

Down 157,854 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -7,517 km2).

433,981 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

362,004 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

149,117 km2 below 2013 value for this date.

1,206,571 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

7th lowest September to-date average.

6th lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (4.55% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

21 days (7.95%) have recorded the second lowest.

17 days (6.44%) have recorded the third lowest.

50 days in total (18.94%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[Wipneus]

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Tue: +25k (-)
Wed: +64k

Regionally the increase in the CAB is biggest (+25k) but what really helps is the jump in "lake ice": +23k.

By extent we see increses in the Greenland Sea and a sizable drop in Kara.

The regional breakdown is as follows:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-21 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3883.9   +9.7  -361.9    206.6   -6.3  -241.6     11.5   +3.8  -267.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    74.1  -13.4  -141.9     91.4   +1.9   +45.3    237.3  +24.8   -19.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    30.1   +9.8   -42.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     14.0   +0.7   -11.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   426.8   -3.7    +7.7    163.0   +7.7   -87.3      0.6   +0.0  -134.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    248.4  +78.2  +114.4
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5139.3  +35.0 -1254.3

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3058.6  +24.5  -473.7     66.5   +0.7  -238.9      5.3   +1.2  -170.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    29.7   -7.7   -98.7     41.3   +0.7   +21.0    117.8  +14.0   -29.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    16.0   +3.4   -22.9      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      6.8   +0.7    -2.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   250.9   -7.7    -8.6     96.8   +4.9   -61.4      0.4   +0.0   -81.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    119.4  +23.2   +61.9
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   3690.0  +34.7 -1167.1

[crandles]

I suspect we can call minimum.

That said, scavenged from the blog via Colorado Bob, we have this:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/513544/Arctic-ice-cap-death-spiral

I'm quite keen to see Wadham's numbers about thickness.  If verifiable, even partially, it could toss much of what's been getting said about a volume recovery right over the board.

I agree we can call the minimum for area and extent (he says after Wipneus' last post).

He said: "On average it was about 0.8 metres thick, compared with five metres when I first went in 1976.

I assume this 0.8m refers to the area visited, so it is not directly comparable to PIOMAS average thickness of about 1.43m at end of August. Do we know where the remote-control mini-submarine was sent under the floes? Likely to have visited thinner areas? So difference not really surprising? If so, I would suggest it is pretty unlikely to overturn idea that 2013 and 2014 volumes were higher than 2012.


Of course, just because  2013 and 2014 volumes were higher than 2012 does not make it a recovery. This is especially so when level of noise about the trend is similar to that previously seen eg 92-95 and we don't know whether we should expect more or less variability.

[crandles]

CT area with Wipneus' updates:
3.620 + 0.025 + 0.064 = 3.709

Lowest CT published figure so far of 3.483 is 7th lowest year for area even if there is no further decline. Projection of 3.709 is 0.226 above this.

0 of last 25 years do larger subsequent declines than 226k which would mean a later and lower minimum than 2014.6931 3.483

Next target is 3.425 for 6th lowest year for area on record so requires a further drop of 0.284 (0 of last 25 years do larger subsequent declines.

Largest subsequent loss in last 25 year is 0.168 Therefore requires 35% higher subsequent loss than highest in last 25 years for there to be a later minimum to 69% higher subsequent loss than highest in last 25 years to reach 6th lowest year for minimum.

This seems exceedingly unlikely so minimum area can be called and I intend to cease reporting unless anything weird happens.

[jdallen]

crandles;

I agree the 0.8 figure is not universal. Neither do I think it likely to overturn the assumption 2013/2014 volumes have increased over 2012.  There are a great many forces and mechanisms in play - higher albedo, ubiquitous fog, lower melt pond fraction, less movement/transport to name a few - which support the conclusion.

What sticks out are the latitude - I presume his measurements are mostly north of 80, and many near or above 85 in the 'bite' - and the implied consistency. Like I said, I'm keen to see his numbers and conclusions, in so far primarily what they may tell us about bottom melt.  The picture we have of it and, with deference to and in spite of the efforts of Icebridge, estimated average thickness still seems to me to have rather high uncertainty.

We are reasonably confident that top melt was restrained this season by negative (energetically) feed backs.  Yet will still passed 2013. Wadhams findings might indicate the inexorable increase in ocean heat content is catching up with us; that even without active convective mechanisms at work, it is starting to reach the ice.

[Wipneus]

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Wed: +64k (-)
Thu: +3k

The CAB keeps refreezing (+34k), the total number is suppressed by a drop in "lake ice" of -17k.

By extent we see increases in the CAA (+18k), but drops in the Barents and Greenland Seas cause a small decline in the total.

The regional breakdown is as follows:


Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-22 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3889.6   +5.8  -359.4    202.8   -3.8  -249.5      9.6   -1.9  -274.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    69.0   -5.1  -150.4     80.3  -11.1   +33.2    225.4  -11.9   -36.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    25.5   -4.6   -47.9      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     16.4   +2.4    -7.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   445.2  +18.4   +19.9    163.7   +0.7   -88.3      3.7   +3.1  -132.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    +0.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.3    216.2  -32.2   +81.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5131.3   -8.0 -1293.5

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3092.9  +34.3  -452.0     68.6   +2.0  -240.3      4.6   -0.8  -174.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    27.8   -1.9  -102.9     36.9   -4.4   +15.8    107.9   -9.9   -44.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    15.8   -0.2   -23.9      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      7.5   +0.7    -2.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   250.8   -0.1   -13.7    101.0   +4.2   -59.8      1.0   +0.5   -83.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.2    102.8  -16.6   +45.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   3714.6  +24.5 -1180.8

[Wipneus]

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Thu: +3k (-)
Fri: +80k

Which can be attributed to the refreezing in the CAB (+81k).

By extent it the CAB as well, but the drop in the Greenland Sea is noteworthy as well: -31k.

The regional breakdown is as follows:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-23 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3941.5  +51.9  -311.6    213.7  +10.9  -243.2      7.6   -1.9  -282.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    67.6   -1.4  -155.8     86.8   +6.5   +38.8    194.9  -30.5   -72.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    33.0   +7.5   -41.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     17.0   +0.5    -6.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   462.0  +16.8   +29.4    152.3  -11.4  -101.7      2.5   -1.2  -134.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    +0.4      0.0   +0.0    +0.9    195.2  -21.0   +59.8
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5179.0  +47.7 -1281.2

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3174.3  +81.4  -384.7     82.8  +14.2  -229.9      3.8   -0.8  -179.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    28.0   +0.3  -105.3     41.0   +4.2   +19.1     89.9  -18.0   -68.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    18.3   +2.5   -22.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      7.4   -0.1    -1.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   261.3  +10.5    -8.9     97.5   -3.5   -66.2      0.9   -0.1   -85.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    +0.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.4     97.7   -5.1   +39.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   3805.1  +90.6 -1132.4

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS Extent:

5,108,363 km2 (24 September)

Up 46,535 km2 from previous day.

Up 224,243 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 32,035 km2).

Down 109,899 km2 for the month of September (daily average: -4,579 km2).

568,687 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

470,928 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

22,268 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

1,587,972 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

7th lowest September to-date average.

7th lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (4.12% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (5.24%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (20.97%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (30.34%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

[Wipneus]

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Fri: +80k (-)
Sat: +53k

Which can be attributed to the refreezing in the CAB (+53k) and the ESS (+16k).

By extent same picture: CAB and ESS are increasing while other regions son't change much.

The regional breakdown is as follows:


Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-24 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3984.8  +43.3  -272.9    229.2  +15.4  -233.1      7.0   -0.6  -289.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    74.1   +6.5  -153.8     85.5   -1.3   +36.2    182.4  -12.5   -91.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    30.5   -2.5   -45.5      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     20.0   +3.1    -2.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   459.8   -2.2   +19.4    155.5   +3.2  -100.9      3.2   +0.6  -135.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    +0.5      0.0   +0.0    +1.2    203.2   +8.0   +67.1
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5232.1  +53.1 -1268.4

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3227.1  +52.8  -347.2     98.5  +15.7  -218.4      3.5   -0.3  -184.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    29.6   +1.6  -106.7     38.6   -2.5   +15.6     86.1   -3.8   -78.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    17.8   -0.5   -23.4      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      8.4   +1.0    -0.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   256.9   -4.4   -19.7     93.6   -3.9   -73.4      1.0   +0.1   -87.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    +0.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.6     97.3   -0.4   +39.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   3861.2  +56.0 -1123.0

[Wipneus]

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Sat: +53k (-)
Sun: +83k

Which can be attributed to the refreezing in the CAB,  CAA and ESS.

By extent same picture: CAB, CAA, ESS and here the Beaufort.

The regional breakdown is as follows:


Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-25 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3999.3  +14.5  -263.2    240.7  +11.6  -227.6      8.9   +1.9  -295.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    80.7   +6.6  -152.2     90.1   +4.5   +38.7    182.3   -0.2   -97.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    22.2   -8.3   -55.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     12.8   -7.2    -9.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   484.8  +25.0   +36.4    168.8  +13.4   -90.6      3.2   +0.0  -137.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    +0.4      0.0   +0.0    +1.0    189.7  -13.5   +53.5
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5293.9  +61.8 -1252.2

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3273.2  +46.1  -317.4    113.8  +15.4  -208.1      4.4   +0.9  -189.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    30.9   +1.2  -108.9     39.4   +0.8   +15.2     86.5   +0.4   -83.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    13.7   -4.2   -28.4      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      6.0   -2.4    -2.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   286.7  +29.8    +3.0     99.5   +5.8   -71.4      1.0   -0.0   -89.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    +0.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.5     92.6   -4.7   +34.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   3955.0  +93.8 -1080.7

[Wipneus]

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Sun: +83k (-)
Mon: +52k

Which can be attributed to the refreezing in the CAB and Beaufort.

By extent same picture: CAB, Beaufort and in this case Baffin (thanks to some import through the Nares Strait).

The regional breakdown is as follows:


Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-26 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4034.1  +34.8  -233.9    236.2   -4.6  -238.5      9.6   +0.6  -303.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    90.0   +9.3  -148.2     86.1   -4.0   +32.2    187.7   +5.4   -97.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    42.4  +20.2   -36.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     15.3   +2.4    -7.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   479.1   -5.7   +22.6    181.5  +12.7   -81.8      4.5   +1.3  -137.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    +0.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.3    183.6   -6.1   +47.9
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5366.4  +72.5 -1229.4

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3301.4  +28.2  -307.9    106.3   -7.6  -220.8      4.7   +0.3  -195.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    36.0   +5.1  -107.4     38.2   -1.2   +12.5     94.1   +7.6   -81.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    21.4   +7.7   -21.5      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      7.3   +1.3    -1.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   292.3   +5.6    +0.8    112.0  +12.5   -63.4      1.3   +0.3   -91.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.1     88.4   -4.2   +30.4
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   4014.9  +59.9 -1077.4

[Wipneus]

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Mon: +52k (-)
Tue: +30k

For a change it is not the CAB (that has small decline), rather the CAA and Beaufort. Also some increase in 'lakeice".

By extent there is even a drop in total: CAB and ESS are the cause.

The regional breakdown is as follows:


Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-27 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4013.1  -21.0  -260.9    220.8  -15.4  -260.9      9.6   +0.0  -312.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    80.4   -9.5  -163.6     79.6   -6.5   +22.6    192.3   +4.5   -99.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    47.6   +5.2   -31.9      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     14.7   -0.6    -7.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   475.6   -3.5   +10.6    190.4   +8.9   -77.3      3.8   -0.6  -140.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.5      0.0   +0.0    -0.8    208.6  +25.0   +73.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5327.9  -38.5 -1322.2

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3288.9  -12.5  -340.5    102.3   -4.0  -230.4      4.8   +0.0  -201.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    36.2   +0.2  -111.3     36.6   -1.6    +9.2    101.2   +7.1   -80.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    26.8   +5.4   -17.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      7.1   -0.1    -1.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   306.7  +14.4    +6.7    125.7  +13.7   -54.7      1.3   -0.0   -93.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.1      0.0   +0.0    -0.4     94.9   +6.5   +37.4
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   4037.5  +22.6 -1116.0

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to September 27th

The current 5 day mean is on 5,283,650km2 while the 1 day extent is at 5,331,970km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,273,140km2, a decrease from -1,292,730km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at 1,041,530km2, a change from 959,890km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +32.8k/day, compared to the long term average of +36.9k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +25.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +68.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +54.1k/day.

The change so far this September is the 9th most negative on record. For September to achieve the largest gain, a daily increase of 313.1k/day is required, while the largest loss requires -39.7k/day, with an averaged September increase requiring +127.0k/day.

[Wipneus]

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Tue: +30k (-)
Wed: +7k

Most of the refreeze is in the CAA, the CAB actually saw a decline.

This is true for extent as well, the CAA dropped a massive +46k.

The regional breakdown is as follows:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-28 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4009.3   -3.8  -270.6    223.3   +2.5  -266.7      8.9   -0.6  -323.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    88.8   +8.4  -161.4     86.2   +6.6   +25.5    198.8   +6.5   -99.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    47.6   +0.0   -33.4      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     14.7   +0.0    -8.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   521.7  +46.1   +47.7    185.3   -5.1   -87.1      4.4   +0.6  -141.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.6   +0.6    -0.6      0.0   +0.0    -2.2    186.3  -22.4   +52.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5389.6  +61.7 -1321.5

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3275.6  -13.3  -373.2    100.4   -1.9  -239.2      4.1   -0.7  -210.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    38.0   +1.8  -113.9     39.6   +3.0   +10.3    112.1  +10.8   -75.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    26.4   -0.5   -18.5      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      7.2   +0.0    -2.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   324.3  +17.6   +15.3    121.1   -4.5   -64.3      1.3   +0.0   -95.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.1   +0.1    -0.3      0.0   +0.0    -1.1     91.2   -3.7   +34.1
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   4050.0  +12.5 -1168.7

[Wipneus]

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Wed: +7k (-)
Thu: +9k

The CAB is actually declining significantly, increases in Greenland Sea and CAA keep the total positive.

This is true for extent as well, the swings in the CAA are rather big.

The regional breakdown is as follows:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-29 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3982.4  -26.9  -303.9    223.4   +0.1  -275.9     13.4   +4.5  -331.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    76.6  -12.3  -180.2     94.0   +7.8   +28.5    240.0  +41.2   -64.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    59.9  +12.3   -23.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     15.8   +1.1    -8.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   561.5  +39.8   +77.6    171.3  -14.0  -106.4      1.2   -3.2  -147.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   -0.6    -2.5      0.0   +0.0    -4.8    211.9  +25.6   +78.9
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5439.5  +49.9 -1341.9

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3230.0  -45.6  -438.6    104.9   +4.6  -242.3      5.4   +1.4  -219.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    33.7   -4.3  -122.8     43.5   +3.9   +11.9    135.5  +23.4   -58.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    30.3   +3.9   -15.9      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      7.0   -0.1    -2.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   346.0  +21.8   +26.8    102.0  -19.1   -88.8      0.6   -0.7   -97.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   -0.1    -0.8      0.0   +0.0    -2.3    104.5  +13.3   +47.9
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   4039.0  -11.0 -1250.6

[jdallen]

That is very striking - a combined 70K drop in the CAB, Kara and Beaufort. 

No doubt a result of the fall systems running north.

If the pattern persists it will have interesting implications for mid winter thickening.

[Wipneus]

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect the following changes of  CT-area:

Thu: +9k (-)
Fri: +58k

That is mostly the Greenland Sea: +36k. CAB did hardly change.

This is true for extent as well, the Greenland Sea increased by a massive +52k.

The regional breakdown is as follows:


Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-09-30 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3996.0  +13.6  -297.0    240.6  +17.3  -268.7     12.1   -1.3  -346.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    76.7   +0.1  -186.9     97.9   +3.9   +26.7    291.7  +51.7   -19.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    56.7   -3.3   -28.5      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     13.4   -2.4   -12.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   577.1  +15.6   +82.6    154.2  -17.2  -129.4      0.6   -0.6  -150.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -4.1      0.0   +0.0    -7.9    229.9  +18.0   +98.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   5517.0  +77.5 -1341.2

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3232.9   +2.9  -456.3    115.4  +10.5  -240.3      5.3   -0.2  -230.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    33.7   -0.0  -127.8     47.2   +3.7   +13.1    171.6  +36.2   -28.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    29.6   -0.7   -18.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      6.5   -0.6    -3.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   358.9  +12.9   +28.6     92.6   -9.4  -104.1      0.5   -0.1   -99.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -1.3      0.0   +0.0    -3.8    107.3   +2.8   +51.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.0   +0.0    +0.0   4094.2  +55.2 -1271.3

[Wipneus]

As the daily reports in the "Home Brew" thread, I am stopping the daily reports based on NSIDC sea ice concentration during the coming season.

The data will still be updated as the NSIDC updates. The files can be found in this directory:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data

A description of the contents of each file is in the header.

The daily regional break down as posted is this one:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data/summary.txt

Regional graphs are these:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/nsidc-nt-regional-area-overview.png

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/nsidc-nt-regional-extent-overview.png

[crandles]

NSIDC monthy data is out:

year mo    data_type region extent   area
2006  9      Goddard      N   5.92   3.97
2007  9      Goddard      N   4.30   2.78
2008  9      Goddard      N   4.73   2.99
2009  9      Goddard      N   5.39   3.47
2010  9      Goddard      N   4.93   3.07
2011  9      Goddard      N   4.63   2.94
2012  9      Goddard      N   3.63   2.15
2013  9      Goddard      N   5.38   3.54
2014  9      NRTSI-G      N   5.28   3.39

The average of the daily NSIDC extent data for 2013 and 2014 are 5.244 and 5.210. The reason for the difference is the daily data looks for over 15% coverage in a grid cell over 48 hours, whereas monthly data looks for over 15% coverage over the whole month. Therefore if there is a lot of movement some ice can counts as extent in more than one cell.

My impression is there has been less mobility of ice this year, therefore 5.38 down to 5.28 is probably overstating the amount by which the extent has declined. I suggest 5.244 down to 5.210 is more like it. Either way it looks like a very small decline that we probably cannot statistically distinguish from no change.

Time for a summary:

Minimum measures________ 2014 ___ 2013
CT area daily minimum_______ 3.483___ 3.554
CT area Sept average________ 3.682___ 3.739 
(30 days .6685-.7479 probably not the right 30 days)

NSIDC extent daily minimum__ 4.983___ 5.077
NSIDC Sept avg of daily extent_ 5.210___ 5.244
NSIDC Monthly Extent________ 5.28____ 5.38
NSIDC monthly area _________ 3.39____ 3.54

IJIS extent daily minimum_____ 4.884___ 4.809 (higher in 2014)
IJIS Sept average Extent______ 5.060___ 4.988 (higher in 2014)

PIOMAS volume daily minimum__ not yet available and delay seems likely
PIOMAS volume Sept average___ not yet available and delay seems likely

Most measures seem to suggest 2014 is lower than 2013 but IJIS disagrees.

[Wipneus]

From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect CT-area to score the first century of the freezing season next Monday, about +147k.

It mostly CAB, but also helped by a massive jump in "lake ice": +33k.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to October 4th

The current 5 day mean is on 5,671,660km2 while the 1 day extent is at 5,792,910km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,361,530km2, an increase from -1,273,140km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at 1,050,900km2, a change from 1,041,530km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +55.4k/day, compared to the long term average of +68.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +54.1k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +89.5k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +70.8k/day.

The change in September was the 8th most negative on record.

The increase so far in October is the 8th lowest on record. For the largest increase the daily average needs to be greater than +129.9k/day, while the lowest requires less than 47.1k/day and the average needs 91.3k/day.

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS Extent:

5,803,542 km2 (07 October)

Up 79,111 km2 from previous day.

Up 477,506 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 68,215 km2).

Up 585,280 km2 for the month of October (daily average: 83,611 km2).

797,229 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

333,192 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

359,363 km2 below 2013 value for this date.

1,579,693 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

5th lowest October to-date average.

5th lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (3.93% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (5.%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (20.%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (28.93%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

CT Area:

4,391,929 km2 (06 October [Day 0.7616])

Up 64,238 km2 from previous day.

Up 387,939 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 55,420 km2).

Up 614,553 km2 for the month of October (daily average: 102,425 km2).

449,133 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

341,313 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

111,978 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

1,174,094 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

7th lowest October to-date average.

8th lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (4.3% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

21 days (7.53%) have recorded the second lowest.

17 days (6.09%) have recorded the third lowest.

50 days in total (17.92%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[crandles]

Summary update:

Minimum measures________ 2014 ___ 2013
CT area daily minimum_______ 3.483___ 3.554
CT area Sept average________ 3.682___ 3.739 
(30 days .6685-.7479 probably not the right 30 days)

NSIDC extent daily minimum__ 4.983___ 5.077
NSIDC Sept avg of daily extent_ 5.210___ 5.244
NSIDC Monthly Extent________ 5.28____ 5.38
NSIDC monthly area _________ 3.39____ 3.54

IJIS extent daily minimum_____ 4.884___ 4.809 (higher in 2014)
IJIS Sept average Extent______ 5.060___ 4.988 (higher in 2014)

PIOMAS volume daily minimum_ 6.81____ 5.392 (higher in 2014)
PIOMAS volume Sept average__ 6.973___ 5.483 (higher in 2014)

[viddaloo]

Piomas volume per Ijis extent (for Sep 30) rose to the highest level since 2008 this year, for some reason. All the years from the start of the Ijis data series in 1999 and to 2008 had higher ratios than 2014, but 2009-2013 had lower (km³ per 1000 km²).

Year Vol/Ext.            Vol.   Ext

2014    1.33664136   7119 5326036
2013    1.042124853   5743    5510856
2012    1.043656518   3967    3801059
2011    0.9881325059 4789 4846516
2010    0.9523177576 5138 5395258
2009    1.265746346   6938    5481351
2008    1.422000594   7234    5087199
2007    1.47674755   6538 4427297
2006    1.551452912   9097    5863536
2005    1.658909622   9367    5646480
2004    1.619873616   10367   6399882
2003    1.653777741   10376   6274120
2002    1.718465061   10967   6381858
2001 2.058397423   12378   6013416
2000 1.585554206   11351   7159011
1999    1.436352693   11230   7818414

It would be simple to explain this by weather (small transport/wind spread), but when there's such a strong trend towards a smaller ratio, it seems more like an integral part of the long-term melting trend?

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS Extent:

6,004,606 km2 (09 October)

Up 112,460 km2 from previous day.

Up 550,913 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 78,702 km2).

Up 786,344 km2 for the month of October (daily average: 87,372 km2).

772,822 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

331,441 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

409,595 km2 below 2013 value for this date.

1,597,897 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

5th lowest October to-date average.

5th lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (3.9% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (4.96%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (19.86%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (28.72%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

CT Area:

4,587,634 km2 (09 October [Day 0.7699])

Up 21,364 km2 from previous day.

Up 501,920 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 71,703 km2).

Up 810,258 km2 for the month of October (daily average: 90,029 km2).

472,170 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

310,097 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

117,497 km2 below 2013 value for this date.

1,168,821 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

7th lowest October to-date average.

7th lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (4.26% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

21 days (7.45%) have recorded the second lowest.

17 days (6.03%) have recorded the third lowest.

50 days in total (17.73%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to October 11th

The current 5 day mean is on 6,202,570km2 while the 1 day extent is at 6,452,380km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,457,330km2, an increase from -1,361,530km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at 1,086,540km2, a change from 1,050,900km2 last week. We're currently 5th lowest on record, up from 6th lowest last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +75.8k/day, compared to the long term average of +89.5.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +70..8k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +98.2k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +108.1k/day.

The increase so far in October is the 13th smallest on record. For the largest increase the daily average needs to be greater than +148.8k/day, while the lowest requires less than 37.1k/day and the average needs 96.7k/day.

[Pmt111500]

Yes, interesting to see how the post 2006 spike in late oct-early nov plays out this year.

[viddaloo]

That's right, I believe you have the same Oct/Nov spike here? This is IJIS extent per PIOMAS volume. For the first time in the 13 year data series, the rate is lower than it was 5 years ago (and has been for 1–2 months).

Apart from that, it seems as though extent/volume is higher as the long–time melt goes on.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to October 18th

The current 5 day mean is on 7,023,750km2 while the 1 day extent is at 7,272,410km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,323,220km2, a decrease from -1,457,330km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +1,151,340km2, a change from +1,086,540km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, down from 5th lowest last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +117.3k/day, compared to the long term average of +98.2k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +108.1k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +89.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +164.0k/day.

The increase so far in October is the 17th largest on record. For the largest monthly increase, the daily average needs to be greater than +165.7k/day, while the lowest requires losing at least 6.1k/day and the average needs +85.5k/day.

[Wipneus]

Perhaps for the thread "records and oddities", NSIDC reports a triple century today: +326k.

CT-area will in two days report an, estimated by the NSIDC concecntration data, an increase of +234k.

Regionally it is Kara that by it self scores an extent century: +115k.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-10-19 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4364.3  +24.2   -24.2    473.4  +27.5  -346.4    271.6  +27.7  -431.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   615.0 +115.3   +87.4    240.9   +3.9   +65.2    429.8  +60.0   +24.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    82.0   +3.2  -121.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     25.8   +6.1   -35.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   659.1  +16.8    +1.9    286.7  +13.9  -141.9    104.0  +13.4  -115.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     4.7   -0.0    -4.7     21.1   +0.4    +4.1    245.2   -1.6  +121.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    19.6  +13.4   +19.6   7598.1 +325.8 -1019.2

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3904.4  +45.8   -79.9    315.6  +26.0  -359.5    138.8  +18.1  -434.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   388.1  +74.5   +16.7    132.2   +2.9   +29.5    299.3  +16.3    +9.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    48.2   +2.4   -71.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     11.6   +3.0   -14.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   515.2  +29.7    +1.9    190.9   +9.6  -130.5     61.1  +10.5   -97.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     2.2   -0.2    -0.9     11.0   +0.5    +2.9    100.0   -2.7   +47.9
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     8.1   +5.2    +8.1   6026.8 +244.4 -1120.1

[viddaloo]

Perhaps for the thread "records and oddities", NSIDC reports a triple century today: +326k.

Will be very interesting to see what happens to my extent/volume plot (above) when the October figures arrive from PIOMAS. Will it go back to "normal" rate, which is a higher rate than in 2009, or will it stay below 2009 for the rest of the year?

I don't have a clue what that would imply, but maybe a new kind of equilibrium?

[jdallen]

Rapid recovery of ice I actually worry is bad news; it will interfere with transfer of heat from ocean to atmosphere significantly, especially if it picks up snow over.

I'd be happier if we got more time for the water to dump heat directly to the atmosphere.

[BornFromTheVoid]

That 326k jump is the biggest single day increase since 2001, and the 3rd largest on record (excluding 1984, which appears to be an error).
Now to see if it's just a 1 day blip or part of a stronger period of growth.

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS Extent:

7,691,505 km2 (21 October)

Up 150,554 km2 from previous day.

Up 1,050,410 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 150,059 km2).

Up 2,473,243 km2 for the month of October (daily average: 117,773 km2).

398,840 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

511,011 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

75,894 km2 below 2013 value for this date.

1,110,734 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

5th lowest October to-date average.

6th lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (3.74% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (4.76%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (19.05%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (27.55%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

CT Area:

5,725,813 km2 (20 October [Day 0.8000])

Up 126,408 km2 from previous day.

Up 769,260 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 109,894 km2).

Up 1,948,438 km2 for the month of October (daily average: 97,422 km2).

421,498 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

327,727 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

405,502 km2 below 2013 value for this date.

931,725 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

7th lowest October to-date average.

   

6th lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (4.1% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

21 days (7.17%) have recorded the second lowest.

17 days (5.8%) have recorded the third lowest.

50 days in total (17.06%) have been among the lowest three on record.

   

[jdallen]

Quick arithmetic suggests we are within about 50K of 2010/2012 area and about 150K 2010/2011 extent.

How close am I?  Drop  2012 (which is looking more and more anomalous) and 2014 may look more like the next entry in a steady decline in metrics, rather than a "rebound".

[viddaloo]

2012 is in fact only 3rd lowest as of OCT21. 2010 is 283k km² below 2014:

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to October 25th

The current 5 day mean is on 8,089,790km2 while the 1 day extent is at 8,381,080km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at 885,800km2, a decrease from -1,323,220km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +1,069,540km2, a change from +1,151,340km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +152.3k/day, compared to the long term average of +89.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +164.0k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +79.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +156.3k/day.

The increase so far in October is the 7th largest on record. For the largest monthly increase, the daily average needs to be greater than +181.3k/day, while the lowest requires losing at least 190.9k/day and the average needs +7.7k/day.

[viddaloo]

And 2012 is again lowest (at IJIS) as of Oct25, as it was until Oct15th.

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS Extent:

8,500,378 km2 (28 October)

Up 101,384 km2 from previous day.

Up 808,873 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 115,553 km2).

Up 3,282,116 km2 for the month of October (daily average: 117,218 km2).

221,911 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

534,189 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

85,524 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

1,250,652 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

6th lowest October to-date average.

7th lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (3.65% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (4.65%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (18.6%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (26.91%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

CT Area:

6,622,091 km2 (28 October [Day 0.8219])

Up 149,304 km2 from previous day.

Up 658,934 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 94,133 km2).

Up 2,844,715 km2 for the month of October (daily average: 101,597 km2).

478,857 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

264,998 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

257,079 km2 below 2013 value for this date.

820,798 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

6th lowest October to-date average.

6th lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (3.99% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

21 days (6.98%) have recorded the second lowest.

17 days (5.65%) have recorded the third lowest.

50 days in total (16.61%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to November 1st

The current 5 day mean is on 8,919,870km2 while the 1 day extent is at 9,200,730km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -609,130km2, a decrease from -885,800km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +805,380km2, a decrease from +1,069,540km2 last week. We're currently 8th lowest on record, compared to 6th last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +119.3k/day, compared to the long term average of +79.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +156.3k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +76.0k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +110.7k/day.

The increase in October was the 7th largest on record.

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS Extent:

9,031,363 km2 (03 November)

Up 102,625 km2 from previous day.

Up 632,369 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 90,338 km2).

Up 216,638 km2 for the month of November (daily average: 72,213 km2).

162,293 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

394,598 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

44,365 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

1,071,876 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

7th lowest November to-date average.

8th lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (3.58% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (4.56%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (18.24%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (26.38%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.

CT Area:

7,606,318 km2 (03 November [Day 0.8384])

Up 193,930 km2 from previous day.

Up 1,133,530 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 161,933 km2).

Up 3,828,942 km2 for the month of November (daily average: 1,276,314 km2).

167,110 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

378,065 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

255,326 km2 below 2013 value for this date.

980,937 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

6th lowest November to-date average.

6th lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (3.91% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

21 days (6.84%) have recorded the second lowest.

17 days (5.54%) have recorded the third lowest.

50 days in total (16.29%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS Extent:

9,164,063 km2 (05 November)

Up 74,675 km2 from previous day.

Up 598,153 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 85,450 km2).

Up 349,338 km2 for the month of November (daily average: 69,868 km2).

155,378 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

402,113 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

177,732 km2 above 2013 value for this date.

978,374 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

8th lowest November to-date average.

8th lowest value for the date.

11 days this year (3.56% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

14 days (4.53%) have recorded the second lowest.

56 days (18.12%) have recorded the third lowest.

81 days (26.21%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.