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Author Topic: Global Forest Watch  (Read 26652 times)

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Forest Watch
« Reply #100 on: January 06, 2017, 04:32:06 PM »
Wilcox, B. P., S. Bruijnzeel, and H. Asbjornsen (2016), The pace of change on tropical landscapes, Eos, 97, doi:10.1029/2016EO063837. Published on 30 December 2016.

https://eos.org/meeting-reports/the-pace-of-change-on-tropical-landscapes?utm_source=eos&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EosBuzz010617

Extract: "… the dual processes of climate change and deforestation are driving rapid changes in tropical landscapes. The effects of these changes on water and biogeochemical processes, at a range of scales, are enormous but poorly understood. Scientists do know, for example, that deforestation leads to changes in evapotranspiration, streamflow, and precipitation on local to regional scales and may even influence global climates. Similarly, climate change will likely lead to large-scale and important changes in cloud and precipitation dynamics, feedbacks between the atmosphere and vegetation, and hydrologic cycles in the tropics."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Forest Watch
« Reply #101 on: January 15, 2017, 06:22:18 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Ecuador has begun drilling for oil in the world's richest rainforest".  Need I say more?

http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/1/14/14265958/ecuador-drilling-oil-rainforest

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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DrTskoul

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Re: Global Forest Watch
« Reply #102 on: January 15, 2017, 06:44:01 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Ecuador has begun drilling for oil in the world's richest rainforest".  Need I say more?

http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/1/14/14265958/ecuador-drilling-oil-rainforest


The world developed countries should be paying countries like Ecuador to keep the rainforests pristine... They don't want to be poor. How else can tthey do ?
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Forest Watch
« Reply #103 on: January 24, 2017, 06:13:48 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "We are destroying rainforests so quickly they may be gone in 100 years".  Will the world allow the current high rate of deforestation to continue, or will it take effective action?

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2017/jan/23/destroying-rainforests-quickly-gone-100-years-deforestation

Extract: "Rich countries pledged at Paris to raise $100bn a year to help poor countries reduce their emissions. Some of that money should go to tropical forest protection.
 
In addition, a new UN-backed mechanism called Redd (reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) has been initiated that involves rich countries paying countries to protect forests and the carbon stored within them. Tropical and sub-tropical countries could receive both public and private funding if they succeed in reducing their emissions from deforestation. But this is deeply controversial as global schemes are prone to corruption, difficult to implement and hard to measure.

If there is money to protect forests, will it go to big companies as subsidy, or lead to evictions of people and human rights abuses?

There must be safeguards, but Germany, Norway and the UK have together promised up to $1bn a year for Redd schemes until 2020. The World Bank plans to contribute a similar amount to work with African countries. A further fund is intended to benefit indigenous and other forest communities which have been the traditional protectors of the forest.

Until Paris, stopping tropical deforestation was at best unlikely and probably impossible. It remains very difficult, but a political and financial mechanism has now been created to incentivise countries, companies and communities to do so at a fraction of the cost of reducing comparable emissions in the US or Europe. Protecting the forests now depends on rich governments not ducking their responsibilities and playing their part."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Forest Watch
« Reply #104 on: February 07, 2017, 11:33:55 PM »
The linked article entitled: "Risk of ‘megafires’ to increase as climate warms", cites peer reviewed research published in 'Nature Ecology & Evolution' that climate change will increase the frequency of extreme wildfires:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/risk-megafires-increase-climate-warms
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Forest Watch
« Reply #105 on: February 23, 2017, 11:46:01 PM »
The linked article is entitle: "Small farmers play big role in felling Peru rainforest - satellite maps".  It is going to be difficult to stop small/poor indigenous farmers from slowly destroying the Peruvian rainforest.

http://news.trust.org/item/20170222172928-jnarz

Extract: "Small producers clearing forests have caused Peru to lose 1,800,000 hectares of Amazon rainforest since 2001.

Deforestation in the Peruvian Amazon has risen this century - destroying an area of rainforest 14 times larger than Los Angeles - with small farmers behind most of the cutting, according to a new analysis of satellite maps.

Small farmers account for about 80 percent of Peru's forest loss, the Monitoring of the Andean Amazon Project (MAAP), a Washington, D.C.-based research group, said on Wednesday."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Forest Watch
« Reply #106 on: February 25, 2017, 08:40:27 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Protected areas found to be ‘significant’ sources of carbon emissions", & is indicates that merely designating tropical rainforests as 'protected' does not stop deforestation and the associated net GHG emissions.

https://news.mongabay.com/2017/02/protected-areas-found-to-be-significant-sources-of-carbon-emissions/

Extract: "•    The researchers found 2,018 protected areas across the tropics store nearly 15 percent of all tropical forest carbon. This is because protected areas tend to have denser, older forest – thus, higher carbon stocks.
•   Their study uncovered that, on average, nearly 0.2 percent of protected area forest cover was razed per year between 2000 and 2012.
•   Less than nine percent of the reserves that the researchers sampled contributed 80 percent of the total carbon emissions between 2000 and 2012, putting this small subset of reserves on par with the UK’s entire transportation sector.
•   The researchers say their findings could help prioritize conservation attention."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Forest Watch
« Reply #107 on: February 25, 2017, 08:51:58 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Amazon Deforestation, Once Tamed, Comes Roaring Back".  Policymakers are taking credit for stopping Amazon deforestation, but reality is much different than their "alternate facts".

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/24/business/energy-environment/deforestation-brazil-bolivia-south-america.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

Extract: "A decade after the “Save the Rainforest” movement captured the world’s imagination, Cargill and other food giants are pushing deeper into the wilderness."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Monty

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Re: Global Forest Watch
« Reply #108 on: April 27, 2017, 08:50:00 AM »

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Forest Watch
« Reply #109 on: May 03, 2017, 04:54:43 PM »
The linked reference indicates that wildfires in Borneo are ten time more larger during droughts than in non-drought years, & that global warming will increase the frequency & severity of such droughts:

Muh Taufik et al. Amplification of wildfire area burnt by hydrological drought in the humid tropics, Nature Climate Change (2017). DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3280

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3280.html

Abstract: "Borneo’s diverse ecosystems, which are typical humid tropical conditions, are deteriorating rapidly, as the area is experiencing recurrent large-scale wildfires, affecting atmospheric composition and influencing regional climate processes. Studies suggest that climate-driven drought regulates wildfires, but these overlook subsurface processes leading to hydrological drought, an important driver. Here, we show that models which include hydrological processes better predict area burnt than those solely based on climate data. We report that the Borneo landscape has experienced a substantial hydrological drying trend since the early twentieth century, leading to progressive tree mortality, more severe than in other tropical regions. This has caused massive wildfires in lowland Borneo during the past two decades, which we show are clustered in years with large areas of hydrological drought coinciding with strong El Niño events. Statistical modelling evidence shows amplifying wildfires and greater area burnt in response to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strength, when hydrology is considered. These results highlight the importance of considering hydrological drought for wildfire prediction, and we recommend that hydrology should be considered in future studies of the impact of projected ENSO strength, including effects on tropical ecosystems, and biodiversity conservation."

See also, the associated linked article entitled: "Hydrological drought amplifies wildfires in Borneo's humid tropics".

https://phys.org/news/2017-05-hydrological-drought-amplifies-wildfires-borneo.html

Extract: "The area of wildfires in Borneo during drought years turns out to be ten times larger than during non-drought years, an international research team reports in Nature Climate Change of this week. The fires recurrently affecting Borneo's humid tropical ecosystems have negative influence on the biodiversity and lead to large CO2 emissions, affecting atmospheric composition and regional climate processes. Future droughts in wet tropical regions will likely increase in frequency and severity, and consequently the fire risk, the team says. "
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Forest Watch
« Reply #110 on: May 03, 2017, 05:17:35 PM »
I think that the following reference errs on the side of least drama, but nevertheless, finds that on average climate change will disrupt forest ecosystems.

Xiang Song, Xiaodong Zeng (2017), "Evaluating the responses of forest ecosystems to climate change and CO2 using dynamic global vegetation models", Ecology and Evolution, 7 (3): 997-1008

Abstract: "The climate has important influences on the distribution and structure of forest ecosystems, which may lead to vital feedback to climate change. However, much of the existing work focuses on the changes in carbon fluxes or water cycles due to climate change and/or atmospheric CO 2, and few studies have considered how and to what extent climate change and CO 2 influence the ecosystem structure (e.g., fractional coverage change) and the changes in the responses of ecosystems with different characteristics. In this work, two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs): IAP-DGVM coupled with CLM3 and CLM4-CNDV, were used to investigate the response of the forest ecosystem structure to changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) and CO 2 concentration. In the temperature sensitivity tests, warming reduced the global area-averaged ecosystem gross primary production in the two models, which decreased global forest area. Furthermore, the changes in tree fractional coverage (ΔFtree; %) from the two models were sensitive to the regional temperature and ecosystem structure, i.e., the mean annual temperature (MAT; °C) largely determined whether ΔFtree was positive or negative, while the tree fractional coverage (Ftree; %) played a decisive role in the amplitude of ΔFtree around the globe, and the dependence was more remarkable in IAP-DGVM. In cases with precipitation change, Ftree had a uniformly positive relationship with precipitation, especially in the transition zones of forests (30% < Ftree < 60%) for IAP-DGVM and in semiarid and arid regions for CLM4-CNDV. Moreover, ΔFtree had a stronger dependence on Ftree than on the mean annual precipitation (MAP; mm/year). It was also demonstrated that both models captured the fertilization effects of the CO 2 concentration."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Forest Watch
« Reply #111 on: June 06, 2017, 03:40:21 PM »
The linked article indicates that fire could transform the Amazon forests this century

Le Page, Y., Morton, D., Corinne, H., Ben, B.-L., Cardoso Pereira, J. M., Hurtt, G., and Asrar, G.: Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-55, in review, 2017.

http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2017-55/

Abstract. Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, common under current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Forest Watch
« Reply #112 on: June 07, 2017, 07:53:39 PM »
The linked reference indicates that coniferous & boreal biome forests are particularly sensitive to future climate change

Rupert Seidl, et. al. (2017), "Forest disturbances under climate change", Nature Climate Change, Volume: 7, Pages: 395–402, doi:10.1038/nclimate3303

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n6/full/nclimate3303.html

Abstract: "Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Forest Watch
« Reply #113 on: June 19, 2017, 04:11:27 PM »
Relying on developing countries to safeguard tropical rainforest for the benefit of the world is not a very good bet:

"Brazil on verge of legitimizing Amazon land theft on a grand scale"

https://news.mongabay.com/2017/06/brazil-on-verge-of-legitimizing-amazon-land-theft-on-a-grand-scale/

Extract: "President Temer, serving the bancada ruralista rural lobby, is poised to turn over 600,000 hectares of federally protected Amazon forest to illegal miners, loggers and land thieves."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Forest Watch
« Reply #114 on: June 19, 2017, 07:11:40 PM »
Logging is a rough business. Back in 1990 I wrote a report on some loging proposals for a Government. I was told that failure to change the recommendations would be fatal. Fortunately some Vietnam Vet drinking buddies showed the bad guys that their illegal weapons were bigger than the bad guy's illegal weapons.

For some time those drinking buddies had a great line of credit at our watering hole. It is as dangerous today as then.