Definitions. That's the problem. Over at Neven's blog Wayne said every year has a cliff, not so in my opinion.
In terms of CT Area residuals there has been no cliff this year. ... That is the June cliff, it is a new feature of the seasonal cycle - I can post past periods of anomalies.
What we have in NSIDC extent (attached) is large drop typical of recent years, but taking the whole summer, recent years show more of a summer slide with the June drop being more the start of that downwards slide rather than a 'June Cliff'.
So Michael is correct, there has been no June cliff in 2014 because this is a feature of CT Area. What we see is the start of a 'summer slide' in NSIDC Extent, as in 2007 and 2013, 2014 shows a large drop. But if people start calling every large drop a 'cliff' then the new behaviour of CT Area is devalued and confusion is the result.
Only CT area matters? A large drop is not a cliff? You are right about one thing: definitions are important to communication. IMHO, "cliff" is exactly the right word to use:
cliff /klif/
noun
1. a steep rock face, especially at the edge of the sea
2. a critical point or situation beyond which something bad or undesirable may occur
The risk of misunderstanding is greatest if you constantly redefine your expectations in terms of the worst years. That is the type of thinking behind the "2013 recovery" meme.
What we have had is a drop, you can call it a cliff if you like, but the June Cliff is the term I've used to refer to the drop in CT Area anomalies. I've attached a plot of CT Area anomalies for June (baseline 1980 to 1999) - voila! - no cliff.
In my first blog post on the subject I called it a
June crash, that was a mistake, whenever I use the word crash blog posts 'go viral' it is an emotive word. So I started calling the CT Area anomaly drop a cliff, because in key years it has been so steep.
Now if you want to call every drop a cliff, I'm not stopping you. But if we all start calling things by different names then people will rapidly lose track of what the hell is going on.
Obviously, coming as it does from the blogger who produces detailed breakdowns of PIOMAS and uses ASCAT, NSIDC Extent, and NCEP/NCAR data regularly in blog posts I do not think CT Area is the only index. I have redefined my expectations in terms of the 2007 volume loss event and the 2010 volume loss event, what the 'worst years' redefine is the range of possibilities for ice state following those volume loss events. You might find it interesting to read my take on the so-called recovery of 2013.
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/the-2013-sea-ice-rebound-that-never-was.htmlIt's a blog post that starts with a definition, which seems apt.
I can only second what Peter and Neven have explained - sorry but I don't have the ability to post at work, hence the delayed response.