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DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1250 on: March 08, 2017, 11:19:16 PM »
And the same way that coca cola makes more money from water, ff companies will emerge as energy companies.  Once upon a time there was Exxon Nuclear and Exxon Solar.
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1251 on: March 09, 2017, 12:58:30 PM »
And the same way that coca cola makes more money from water, ff companies will emerge as energy companies

I have noted several times.....that the only company to make any significant move so far....has been the large French energy company Total, which bought a large chunk of Sun Power about 5 years ago.  Total has a greater than 50% stake in Sun Power....the US PV company.

Exxon and most others have YET to make much of any move.  Just as many...if not MOST....retailers were too late to react to Amazon and the "death of the mall".....just like Kodak didn't react to the change in the camera film market.....most of the oil companies will be too late to react to the changing energy and transportation industries.

Total understood EARLY what was going to happen....and they moved.  Others "inside the oil bubble" have yet to move.  Exxon was a $105 stock in 2014.....it's now at $80 and heading to $60.  Their "currency" to buy companies....is their stock price.  Many of them will wait until it is too late.

Most of them are like Harold Hamm of Continental Resources....and all he knows is oil.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2017/03/09/up-on-trump-down-on-oil-hamm-warns-frackers-not-to-spook-opec/#4fc1e3bcdf75

And Harold now seems to know that greed is going to kill the frackers.

Donnie's deregulation of the oil companies will NOT have the desired effect of making the oil companies more profitable.  What it WILL DO is to continue to put pressure on oil prices.  Ten or twenty years ago that would have been horrible for renewable energy.  Not so any more.  Renewables will keep pushing their own prices down.  It won't be ecology that kills the oil companies.....it will be the continuing improvement of the economics of renewable energy.

Many of the oil companies are STILL OVERLEVERAGED with debt.  That is going to be a problem for many of them....and it will be why they have to cut dividends....in order to service debt.

The world's transportation system AND the worlds use of energy for other applications continues to get more efficient at warp speed.  And many of the oil and gas companies will die a slow death over the next couple of decades.

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wehappyfew

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1252 on: March 09, 2017, 03:44:04 PM »
Dolt 45 may start a little war in the Middle East. That will keep the oil prices high enough to please his masters.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1253 on: March 10, 2017, 06:46:19 PM »
Oil's Plunge Below $50 Sends Options Trading Into a Frenzy
Bloomberg
Oil’s plunge through $50 a barrel set the options market on fire.

A record number of options contracts -- equivalent to more than 800 million barrels of crude oil -- changed hands on Thursday, according to exchange data compiled by Bloomberg. The tally includes trading for Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude in London and New York and shows a surge in bets that the former will reach $70 a barrel by September.

The trading, which allows investors to protect themselves or profit from price swings, takes place as the market emerges from its least volatile period in years. Since Nov. 30, when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to curb output for the first six months of this year, prices have hovered above $50 a barrel. That period of calm ended as WTI fell to its lowest level since the OPEC deal, amid rising U.S. stockpiles that threaten to prolong the global glut.
...
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1254 on: March 10, 2017, 09:14:37 PM »
Race to Bottom on Costs May Cause Oil to Choke on Own Supplies
Bloomberg
...
Although several reasons may explain why oil prices plunged this week, including another build-up in U.S. crude stockpiles, some traders and hedge funds attributed at least part of the drop to the ongoing CERAWeek discussions on break-even prices.
...

Crude price on the right (white) [drops like the current one happen regularly]; oil rig count on the left (blue)
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1255 on: March 10, 2017, 09:23:21 PM »

Race to Bottom on Costs May Cause Oil to Choke on Own Supplies
Bloomberg

Also look for gasoline price declines in the near future.  I expect that we could see regular gasoline close to $2 a gallon or slightly below(we're at about $2.20 here in Georgia).  Both the gasoline inventory numbers AND the oil inventory numbers are very high....and rig count, as you noted has been on the rise.



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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1256 on: March 11, 2017, 02:30:49 AM »
Secretary Tillerson Recused Himself in Keystone XL Decision, State Department Says
"Secretary Tillerson's recent employer, ExxonMobil, is heavily invested in producing crude oil from Canada's tar sands and would directly and predictably benefit from the approval of TransCanada's Presidential Permit," Greenpeace said in the letter.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/secretary-tillerson-recused-himself-keystone-xl-decision-state-department-says-n731556
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1257 on: March 11, 2017, 02:33:24 AM »
With Oil at $50 a Barrel, Is the Keystone XL Pipeline Even Necessary?
On Thursday morning, Royal Dutch Shell PLC (NYSE: RDS-A) announced the sale of all its in-situ and undeveloped oil sands interests in Canada for $7.25 billion. Less than a month ago, Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) wrote down 3.3 billion barrels of oil sands assets because they could no longer be produced profitably at current crude prices. If these energy giants can’t make a profit, why do TransCanada Corp. (NYSE: TRP), the Canadian government and the Trump administration want to revisit former President Obama’s decision to kill the Keystone XL pipeline project?...
http://247wallst.com/energy-business/2017/03/09/with-oil-at-55-a-barrel-is-the-keystone-xl-pipeline-even-necessary/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1258 on: March 11, 2017, 02:35:39 AM »
Saudis to US oil firms: Don’t expect OPEC cuts to offset rising shale output
Senior Saudi energy officials told top independent U.S. oil firms in a closed-door meeting this week that they should not assume OPECwould extend output curbs to offset rising production from U.S. shale fields, two industry sources told Reuters on Thursday.

Oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and top non-OPEC exporter Russiaare in an uneasy truce with U.S. shale firms after a two-year price war that sent many shale producers to the wall. The Saudis and Russia led a deal to curb output in late 2016 to end a global supply glut that pushed oil prices to a 12-year low.

The resulting rise in oil prices has sparked a rush of new output by shale producers, who this week outlined ambitious production growth plans across the United States.

Speaking at an industry conference in the U.S. energy capital of Houston on Tuesday, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that there would be no "free rides" for U.S. shale producers benefiting from the upturn....
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/09/saudis-to-us-oil-firms-dont-expect-opec-cuts-to-offset-rising-shale-output.html
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1259 on: March 11, 2017, 12:12:35 PM »
US Shale producers reckon that even at 40 bucks a barrel some fields, including the huge Perminan basin, are profitable. Shell has got rid of some of its tar sands assets. Can't see any future for Alberta's oil indistry.

Ps : Bloomberg says US Coal production increasing by 15 percent this year (but no net increase in jobs as production in fields highly automated while other mines continue to close).

Looks increasingly like only chance of real reduction in world CO2 emissions is China's promises to reduce coal use and ramp up renewables.

wili

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1260 on: March 11, 2017, 12:49:23 PM »
Permian...

I hadn't thought about that name before...

So we're taking carbon from around the time of the greatest (so far) and resurecting it to contribute to our own...

Ironic doesn't begin to describe it
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1261 on: March 12, 2017, 01:05:00 AM »
Oil prices dropped this week due to increases in supply, despite OPEC actions.

Oil Rig Count Rises by 8, Hedge Funds Now Wary of Massive Long Positions
In the week ended March 10, 2017, the number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States totaled 617, up by eight compared with the prior week and up 231 compared with a total of 609 a year ago....

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for April delivery traded down about 1.8% on Friday to settle at $48.39. Crude prices decreased by 79 cents a barrel (1.5%) week over week.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported last Thursday that crude supplies had increased by 8.2 million barrels in the week ended March 3 and that gasoline supplies had fallen by 6.6 million barrels.

WTI crude oil opened the week well above $50 a barrel and closed the week well short of that level. The world’s largest oil commodity trader, Vitol, sees “a lot more growth” in U.S. exports going forward, and that does not augur well for the attempt by OPEC and its allies to lift prices by cutting production.

John Kemp at Reuters reported that hedge funds have accumulated a record long position of more than 900 million barrels in the futures and options markets, betting that prices will rise to more than $60 a barrel. Even though OPEC compliance with the production cuts has reached nearly 99% of its target, the cartel has also said that it will not reduce output in order to let U.S. shale producers boost theirs. ...
http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2017/03/11/oil-rig-count-rises-by-8-hedge-funds-now-wary-of-massive-long-positions/
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1262 on: March 14, 2017, 03:35:48 PM »
When is S**T going to hit the fan?  I think there are going to be two times it is going to hit over the next 2 - 3 years or so....and one of them is pretty soon:

1)  To bring supply and demand down into intermediate term balance (inventories are still too high for current demand).  I think this is going to happen over the next 6 months or so.

2) Realization that oil is indeed going away
(this....is the "big one")  Likely a combination of things:  (1) heat records become almost an annual event....we are already on 3 in a row....what if we get to 4 or 5 years in a row? (2) Arctic ice sheet dips to all time record lows in 2017 and again in 2018 (3) Antarctic continues to "join the party" and has two more years of near record or new record lows in sea ice.

2017 remains looking bearish for oil and the oil stocks right now.  Exxon "looks destined" to hit its 2005 lows....and 2010 lows of about $56 - $60 a share.  And that could easily happen this year if oil heads to the low $40's from the high $40's now.

https://ca.investing.com/analysis/opec:-oil-stocks-keep-rising-despite-supply-cut-deal-200178764

If weekly oil inventory numbers (released on Wednesday) don't start to show some lower levels soon....it is in big trouble.

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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1263 on: March 14, 2017, 03:52:51 PM »
Bloomberg's reporting of oil prices show they are down today:
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1264 on: March 14, 2017, 03:57:52 PM »
Bloomberg's reporting of oil prices show they are down today:

 Thank you for that resource!

https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1265 on: March 14, 2017, 08:41:29 PM »
"Big oil's list of worries just got bigger"
Energy this month

Crude oil down 12.4 percent
Big Energy (XLE) down 3.4 percent
Oil & Gas E&P (XOP) down 6.3 percent
Oil Services (OIH) down 7.3 percent

These are on top of earlier declines that began in January.

As usual, ExxonMobil is the poster child for a lot of these issues. It hit a 52-week low last week. ...

Big Oil has two other notable problems independent of the price of oil: 1) continuing low natural gas prices, and 2) increasing difficulty in growing oil production. ...
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/14/energy-companies-feeling-pain-from-saudi-arabia-production-and-low-oil-prices.html
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1266 on: March 14, 2017, 10:45:54 PM »
Don't get too excited about current reductions to oil and gas. Boom-bust is what the industry does.

 It just needs a shock to get prices up again. E.g. Libya goes even more pear-shaped, Niger Delta goes bad again, US  / Iran start sabre-rattling again,  unrest in Saudi Arabia etc etc etc.

Or world has another financial shock and hullo $ 25 a barrel.

But it is true to say that there is a hell of a lot of easily retrievable oil and gas around if the world economy and politics remain reasonably stable.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1267 on: March 20, 2017, 01:46:48 PM »
Bullish Bets on Crude Cut by Most Ever as Price Falls Below $50
The exodus of oil-price optimists has begun.

Money managers cut bets on rising West Texas Intermediate crude by a record amount during the week ended March 14, while wagers on a further price drop doubled as oil remained below $50 a barrel.

"It’s sort of a negative feedback loop, where money managers were selling because the price was falling, and the price was falling in part because money managers were selling,” said Tim Evans, an analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York, in a telephone interview.

Bets on rising WTI crude during the report week were reduced by the most on record in data going back to 2006, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced Friday. The cuts came as prices tumbled below $50 a barrel for the first time this year, and anxious executives discussed rising U.S. rig counts at an industry meeting in Houston....
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-19/bullish-bets-on-crude-cut-by-most-ever-as-price-falls-below-50


The output of a group of big U.S. E&P companies fell by 1.8 percent in 2016, having grown by 11 percent annually on average in the prior six years.
...
...margins per barrel plummeted by almost 75 percent between 2014 and 2016:...
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-03-17/u-s-shale-companies-should-thank-saudi-arabia
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1268 on: March 20, 2017, 03:28:34 PM »
Bloomberg shows crude up a little but still below $50.
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martalunde68

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1269 on: March 21, 2017, 03:42:36 PM »
E.U. Passes Arctic Protection Resolution
Members of the European Parliament called for measures to protect the vulnerable Arctic ecosystem, ban oil drilling there and keep it a low-tension and cooperation area.

http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/eu-passes-arctic-protection-resolution

They call for a ban on oil drilling in “icy” Arctic waters of the E.U. and the European Economic Area, as the use of fossil fuels will further accelerate climate change. This does not automatically imply a total ban on oil and gas drilling in the Arctic, as, also on Thursday, the European Parliament rejected a proposal for a total ban of oil and gas exploration in the Arctic.


Looks like another half measure which leads to nothing.

DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1270 on: March 21, 2017, 11:29:06 PM »
E.U. Passes Arctic Protection Resolution
Members of the European Parliament called for measures to protect the vulnerable Arctic ecosystem, ban oil drilling there and keep it a low-tension and cooperation area.

http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/eu-passes-arctic-protection-resolution

They call for a ban on oil drilling in “icy” Arctic waters of the E.U. and the European Economic Area, as the use of fossil fuels will further accelerate climate change. This does not automatically imply a total ban on oil and gas drilling in the Arctic, as, also on Thursday, the European Parliament rejected a proposal for a total ban of oil and gas exploration in the Arctic.


Looks like another half measure which leads to nothing.


Only the 4 nations can do wth, US, Russia, Canada and Norway. The rest if the EU can pass as ma t resolutions as they want.....
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1271 on: March 22, 2017, 04:10:31 PM »
US crude inventories rise by 5 million barrels, EIA says
Oil prices slipped to almost four-month lows on Wednesday after data showed U.S. crude inventories rising faster than expected, piling pressure on OPEC to extend output cuts beyond June.

A deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some non-OPEC producers to reduce output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of 2017 has had little impact on bulging global stockpiles of oil.

OPEC, which sources say is increasingly leaning towards extending cuts, has broadly delivered on pledged reductions so far, but non-OPEC states have yet to cut fully in line with commitments.

"OPEC has used up most of its arsenal of verbal weapons to support the market. One hundred percent compliance by all is the only tool they have left and on that account they are struggling," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Benchmark Brent crude was down 83 cents at $50.13 per barrel at 10:35 a.m. ET (1535 GMT). U.S. light crude was down 89 cents at $47.35 a barrel, slipping towards its lowest in almost four months.

U.S. crude inventories rose by 5 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 2.8 million barrels.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/21/oil-prices-fall-on-bloated-us-crude-storage.html
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martalunde68

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1272 on: March 23, 2017, 10:20:08 PM »

Only the 4 nations can do wth, US, Russia, Canada and Norway. The rest if the EU can pass as ma t resolutions as they want.....
Absolutely agree. Much better solution would be elevating the Arctic Counsil status. It`s perfect  plaform to discuss hot topics from the Arctic agenda. But all they can do now is to issue recomendations for participating countries. I think this is the area which has to be improved.

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1273 on: March 24, 2017, 05:20:21 PM »
Commodities "not looking so hot" right now.  In January/February of 2016 you had an "intermediate term bottom".....and the commodities then "bounced" for about a year until about Jan/Feb of this year.

Now.....companies like Rio Tinto (iron ore) have been lagging badly...and look to be on another intermediate term "leg down".  Long term....I like "hard commodities".....but intermediate term I wouldn't buy them......

And oil looks HORRIBLE.  Fundamentals are bad.....as inventories JUST WON'T DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.  Not good....

Next 6 months or so could get ugly for commodities....

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1274 on: March 24, 2017, 11:05:06 PM »
The President hailed the State Department's approval today of the controversial Keystone XL pipeline as a big win for American workers.  But:

Keystone XL pipeline would only create 35 permanent jobs
http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/24/investing/keystone-pipeline-jobs-trump/

And environmentalists have not given up the fight:

Keystone Foes Prepare to Fight as Trump Readies Pipeline Permit
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-23/keystone-foes-prepare-to-fight-as-trump-readies-pipeline-permit
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1275 on: March 24, 2017, 11:07:38 PM »
Why rust belt states are tackling methane when Trump won't
Nobody raises an eyebrow when California takes steps to rein in air pollution – but what’s going on when conservative-leaning rust belt states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania are doing the same?

At a time when the Trump administration and Congress seek to scale back federal rules targeting methane emissions from energy production, a growing number of states that swung in favor of Trump in 2016 are heading in the opposite direction.

It reminds us that states that recognize good policy still have the power to act, regardless of who controls Washington. Ohio and Pennsylvania, now following in the footsteps of Colorado, Wyoming and California, are the latest examples of this. ...
https://www.edf.org/blog/2017/03/22/why-rust-belt-states-are-tackling-methane-when-trump-wont
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1276 on: March 24, 2017, 11:12:56 PM »
Big Oil Replaces Rigs With Wind Turbines
Big oil is starting to challenge the biggest utilities in the race to erect wind turbines at sea.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Statoil ASA and Eni SpA are moving into multi-billion-dollar offshore wind farms in the North Sea and beyond. They’re starting to score victories against leading power suppliers including Dong Energy A/S and Vattenfall AB in competitive auctions for power purchase contracts, which have developed a specialty in anchoring massive turbines on the seabed.

The oil companies have many reasons to move into the industry. They’ve spent decades building oil projects offshore, and that business is winding down in some areas where older fields have drained. Returns from wind farms are predictable and underpinned by government-regulated electricity prices. And fossil fuel executives want to get a piece of the clean-energy business as forecasts emerge that renewables will eat into their market. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-23/oil-majors-take-a-plunge-in-industry-that-may-hurt-fossil-fuel
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1277 on: March 27, 2017, 04:25:21 PM »
Oil prices have been bouncing around $50 for two years: the current low oil price in 5-year context (from Bloomberg).  (This is for "CL1.COM WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)" [as seen on previous graphs] or 'West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil'.)
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1278 on: March 27, 2017, 04:42:12 PM »
Oil prices have been bouncing around $50 for two years: the current low oil price in 5-year context (from Bloomberg).

The $40 "support level" will be tested or "taken out".  Lately.....more rigs coming back online over the past 10 weeks....and inventories remain at or near record level highs for both oil AND gasoline.

As many of you in the US have likely noticed.....gasoline prices have fallen over the past few weeks.  Here in Georgia....I expect them to go under $2 a gallon.  We are at $2.11 for regular right now....

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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1279 on: March 27, 2017, 07:44:01 PM »
Looks like Chevron (ticker symbol CVX) is starting to "break down" into its next leg down (it topped out in 2014 just like Exxon...ticker XOM).

I would watch oil this week....especially on Wednesday when the next inventory report comes out...  It is likely to break down as well.

I wonder what Saudi Arabia is thinking about now.  "Hmmmmmmm.....maybe we should have started to sell Saudi Aramco a couple years ago."

At some point THIS YEAR OR NEXT......they will need to "shit or get off the pot" regarding their IPO of Saudi Aramco.

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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1280 on: March 27, 2017, 07:53:40 PM »
Dividend risk.....will they or won't they cut their dividends this year?  Inquiring minds want to know:

http://www.simplysafedividends.com/royal-dutch-shell-rds-dividend/

http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2017/03/10/bad-week-for-petrobras-down-9-is-dividend-at-risk/

Ditto for Chevron and Exxon.  At what point are they going to realize...."hey, our oil used in the transportation industry is going to take a significant hit...we better spend more money getting into the renewable sector, rather than pay out so much in dividends."

That day IS COMING.....
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1281 on: March 30, 2017, 01:15:37 PM »
Shale Drillers Face an Uncertain 2018 With Most Hedges Expiring
A surge in hedging contracts is helping U.S. shale drillers ride out the turmoil in global oil markets this year. Next year may not be so easy.

As of March, the biggest explorers had hedged 28 percent of this year’s production, according to Warren Russell and Michael Cohen of Barclays Plc. Those contracts, which lock in future payments, are expected to help U.S. output reach a “multi-decade high by December, within sights of the all-time high reached in 1970," the analysts wrote in a note to clients.

There are no guarantees for 2018, however, when most of the hedges expire. The falling price of crude, which has dropped 10 percent since the start of the year, is taking its toll, according to Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research at Bank of America Corp. in New York.

"There was a lot of hedging when prices were between $50 and $55," Blanch said in a telephone interview on Tuesday. "Now that it’s trading under $50, not many people are rushing to hedge.”
...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-28/shale-drillers-face-uncertain-2018-with-most-hedges-running-out
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1282 on: March 30, 2017, 05:29:41 PM »
Bloomberg shows West Texas Intermediate is now above $50.  (Will it last?)
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1283 on: March 31, 2017, 05:10:44 PM »
Three things are now working in unison to trash fossil fuel prices...and stocks:

1) The Trump implosion.....Donald is heading out of office, and several of his cabinet members are likely heading out with him.

2) Oil and gas inventories at record high levels.....with rig count heading up over last 10 weeks...

3)  Global warming becoming impossible to ignore (unless you work for Ruppert Murdoch OR take money from oil and gas companies like Joe Bastardi).

Those 3 issues are now working hand-in-glove....and I expect oil prices to get trashed in the next 3 - 6 months.....and take oil/gas stocks down with them.



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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1284 on: April 04, 2017, 04:26:10 PM »
Keystone XL: Environmental and Native Groups Sue to Halt Pipeline
Several environmental and Native American advocacy groups have filed two separate lawsuits against the State Department over its approval of the Keystone XL pipeline.

The Sierra Club, Northern Plains Resource Council, Bold Alliance, Center for Biological Diversity, Friends of the Earth and the Natural Resources Defense Council filed a federal lawsuit in Montana on Thursday, challenging the State Department's border-crossing permit and related environmental reviews and approvals.

The suit came on the heels of a related suit against the State Department and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service filed by the Indigenous Environmental Network and North Coast Rivers Alliance in the same court on Monday.

The State Department issued a permit for the project, a pipeline that would carry tar sands crude oil from Canada to Nebraska, on March 24. Regulators in Nebraska must still review the proposed route there.
...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/30032017/keystone-xl-pipeline-lawsuit-trump-state-department
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1285 on: April 04, 2017, 07:39:55 PM »
Bloomberg shows West Texas Intermediate is now above $50.  (Will it last?)
Apparently!
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Mr.Far

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1286 on: April 08, 2017, 09:58:45 AM »
Communities ill-prepared for oil spill in Arctic Ocean, report says
about 5,700 people living in the Beaufort Delta and the 2,800 people in northern Nunavut who could be devastated by a spill, according to a new report from the World Wildlife Fund Canada

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/arctic-ocean-communities-oil-spill-1.4059629

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1287 on: April 13, 2017, 07:06:33 PM »
More deep water wells coming on line off the US shores.

http://www.upi.com/Energy-News/2017/04/13/US-offshore-oil-production-on-the-rise/3951492077619/

Plus......as prices firm....more frackers in the US have been more than happy to up their drilling to take up the slack of the cutbacks from OPEC.

This is setting up to be quite an interesting market over the next year.  Saudi Arabia is chomping at the bit to take Saudi Aramco PUBLIC....but wants to do so at higher prices.  The market is stubbornly fighting higher prices, because the US frackers are taking up the slack....as well as new US deepwater wells driving down their costs, and now with the ability to make money when oil is at $50.  And how much longer will Russia continue to comply with cutbacks....since they are probably the least ethical of the bunch...

Greed......it truly is an interesting animal to watch. 
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1288 on: April 13, 2017, 07:14:57 PM »
It all comes down to a matter of WHO is going to "blink first"?  Which oil company is going to be the first one to cut their dividend?  It's coming.....they can't continue to pay out dividends at the same rate AND try to change their business model by adding renewable energy to their mix.  It's just a matter of time.....and time is running out for most of these folks.

http://royaldutchshellgroup.com/2017/03/30/big-oil-vows-to-keep-dividends-up-as-prices-falter/
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TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1289 on: April 13, 2017, 09:04:40 PM »
IIRC Russia has been budgeting for $40 oil for some years now. Anything over $40 is pure gravy.


Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1290 on: April 17, 2017, 04:02:21 PM »
Drilling experts explain why Trump can’t bring back oilfield jobs
Just as with coal, oil jobs are decreasing due to automation and advanced machinery, not regulations.
Industry experts have some news for the president: Because of automation, a lot of the jobs lost in oil drilling aren’t coming back. And more are going to be lost.

“To me, it’s not just about automating the rig,” Ahmed Hashmi, BP’s head of upstream technology, told Bloomberg recently. “It’s about automating everything upstream of the rig.” The story also noted that “automation means wells need only five workers, down from 20.” ...
https://thinkprogress.org/drilling-experts-explain-why-trump-cant-bring-back-oilfield-jobs-3257c10ffed8
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1291 on: April 17, 2017, 10:30:22 PM »
Big oil is starting to challenge the biggest utilities in the race to erect wind turbines at sea.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Statoil ASA and Eni SpA are moving into multi-billion-dollar offshore wind farms in the North Sea and beyond. They’re starting to score victories against leading power suppliers including Dong Energy A/S and Vattenfall AB in competitive auctions for power purchase contracts, which have developed a specialty in anchoring massive turbines on the seabed.

This, and the apparent large scale sell off of service/gas stations, seems to me to be a major tell.  It suggests that oil companies have decided that it is time for them to start their transition from oil companies to renewable energy companies.  Offshore wind is a great fit for companies that have been involved in offshore oil extraction.  And selling off gas stations means that they can pull out their capital and leave someone else with the expense of shut down and cleanup in a few years.

EVs with 200+ mile range and selling for the same price as (or less than) their ICE twins should happen within five years.  Battery power buses are here and battery powered trucks seem to be arriving.  Petroleum demand could easily fall by 50% over the next 15 years and dive toward zero over the following 10.

(Commercial fleets will move to electricity very rapidly.  Look at the thousands of perfectly usable airliners parked in deserts because they use too much fuel.)

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1292 on: April 18, 2017, 07:16:17 AM »
The substitution of EV's for ICE's will be dependent upon relative full life-cycle price. In the absence of a significant carbon tax, a fall in oil demand could collapse the price to say $10 or less per barrel. This could act as a major hurdle to the purchase of EV's. Would also be way cheaper to fly to Cuba for a weeks vacation, or heat the house with oil ...

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1293 on: April 18, 2017, 08:44:37 AM »
I'm not sure there's enough oil that could be marketed for $10.  Production costs are higher in most countries.  I think only Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia have production costs less than $15.  Only SA can produce for less than $10. 

At $30 the cost of gas (sans tax) is about $1.60.  At $15 gas drops to about $1.20.  A 30 MPG ICEV burning $1.20/gallon fuel costs $0.04/mile.  An EV charging with $0.09/kWh electricity and using 0.3 kWh/mile would cost $0.027 per mile in electricity.  You'd have to drive a 50 MPG ICEV on $1.20/gallon fuel to bring operating costs into parity.   

Legacy ICEVs will probably keep demand high enough to use up the lowest price supply for a decade or more.  I don't see oil dropping below $30 (extended period) until at least half of all cars are EVs.  And at that point most new cars will be EVs which means that there will be no used ICEVs to replace the ones that get crushed.

I think we're short years from manufacturing costs for EVs to drop below that of same-model ICEVs.  Purchase prices may hold a bit higher for a while due to higher demand.  But not much longer than five years out one should be able to purchase a battery powered "Camry" for less than a gasoline powered "Camry".  Purchase price, convenience and quality of ride will sell EVs even if there's little savings in operating costs.
---

I used $0.09/kWh rather than the US average of $0.12/kWh because I think there will be special rates for EVs. 

First, lower post midnight rates when the grid will generally have a lot of cheap wind looking for a market.  If wind farms could sell for a decent price during the late night window that would increase their profits and bring more wind farms online. 

Second, I think that within ten years we'll be seeing EVs given special rates if they allow utilities to use them as dispatchable loads.  Utilities are likely to encourage lots of workplace/school parking lot outlet installation.  And they would be able to control the actual time of charging.  That would mean that large number of EVs would be able to be brought on line when supply is high and could be taken offline when other demand peaks. 

Lots more solar gets installed with the extra morning generation charging EVs and the afternoon generation used for AC.  Having a large dispatchable load would allow utilities to decrease the amount of storage they would need to install.


DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1294 on: April 18, 2017, 01:05:43 PM »
Big oil is starting to challenge the biggest utilities in the race to erect wind turbines at sea.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Statoil ASA and Eni SpA are moving into multi-billion-dollar offshore wind farms in the North Sea and beyond. They’re starting to score victories against leading power suppliers including Dong Energy A/S and Vattenfall AB in competitive auctions for power purchase contracts, which have developed a specialty in anchoring massive turbines on the seabed.

This, and the apparent large scale sell off of service/gas stations, seems to me to be a major tell.  It suggests that oil companies have decided that it is time for them to start their transition from oil companies to renewable energy companies.  Offshore wind is a great fit for companies that have been involved in offshore oil extraction.  And selling off gas stations means that they can pull out their capital and leave someone else with the expense of shut down and cleanup in a few years.

EVs with 200+ mile range and selling for the same price as (or less than) their ICE twins should happen within five years.  Battery power buses are here and battery powered trucks seem to be arriving.  Petroleum demand could easily fall by 50% over the next 15 years and dive toward zero over the following 10.

(Commercial fleets will move to electricity very rapidly.  Look at the thousands of perfectly usable airliners parked in deserts because they use too much fuel.)

Oil companies have been trying to shed cost.  Gas stations are the first to go in situations like that... I don't think it has anything to do with their transition..
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1295 on: April 18, 2017, 06:19:11 PM »
cross post:  I thought this use of battery technology by gas-fired electricity plants interesting:
Edison, GE unveil new battery systems at California gas plants

April 17 (Reuters) - A major California utility and General Electric Co on Monday unveiled a first-of-its-kind battery storage system that will enable instant power output from a natural gas peaking plant to accommodate the state's changing electricity needs while decreasing greenhouse gas emissions.

The system, which was installed at two separate Southern California Edison "peaker" plants this month, will give the utility increased flexibility as the large amounts of renewable wind and solar power required by state mandates have made energy generation cleaner but far less predictable.

Peaker plants are small power plants designed to come online quickly when power demand is high, such as on a hot summer day. But they are also among the least efficient resources available to the utility.

The 10 megawatt batteries, which contain cells made by Samsung SDI, are capable of providing power immediately, eliminating the need for the plant to burn fuel in "standby" mode. Prior to integrating the batteries, the 50 megawatt plant would take about 10 minutes to ramp up to a desired capacity.

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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1296 on: April 18, 2017, 09:38:53 PM »
IIRC Russia has been budgeting for $40 oil for some years now. Anything over $40 is pure gravy.

What do they call it when it goes to $30 - $35?  Sour gravy?
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rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1297 on: April 18, 2017, 10:50:09 PM »
The pain will be felt much more by the North Sea, Tar Sands (more falling house prices in Calgary perhaps?), and Brazil and Africa deep offshore producers. Would also hit the US frackers.

Russia's cost of production is lower, and would probably be buffered by a fall in their exchange rate. Still very hard though, given how much their economy relies on oil and gas exports (there is a global gas glut as well!).

In the longer run the Saudi's rulers wouldn't have enough money to bribe their populations to put up with them.

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1298 on: April 18, 2017, 11:36:40 PM »
The pain will be felt much more by the North Sea, Tar Sands (more falling house prices in Calgary perhaps?), and Brazil and Africa deep offshore producers. Would also hit the US frackers.

Russia's cost of production is lower, and would probably be buffered by a fall in their exchange rate. Still very hard though, given how much their economy relies on oil and gas exports (there is a global gas glut as well!).

In the longer run the Saudi's rulers wouldn't have enough money to bribe their populations to put up with them.


~2 yrs ago Russia was pumping at $4.00/bl. The flexible Ruble works wonders.
They're budget is based on $40.00 oil, so they've been buying bunches of bullion, more than the Chinese - or anyone else. The sanctions allowed them to bring production back home, so plenty of work for the 1.5M immigrants they're housing.
 
Terry

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1299 on: April 19, 2017, 01:44:14 AM »
"If local economic conditions do not improve in terms of employment, then Calgary risks a second consecutive year of out-migration, which could place further downward pressure on housing activity, including a rise in distressed sales"

Sub $40 oil for an extended period would seriously pummel Calgary. The migratory trends have reversed.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/calgary-and-edmonton/calgary-housing-market-faces-another-tough-year-as-economy-slowly-recovers/article33588409/