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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1200 on: January 31, 2017, 08:17:24 PM »
Next floor down.  Rig count picks up....and oil prices drop.  As well.....if you have been watching gasoline prices over the past few months....they hit a wall.

http://www.swtimes.com/news/20170131/us-oil-rig-count-on-rise-gas-prices-drop-3-cents

Too much oil...and not enough buying.  Plus...with each passing day, you more and more efficient cars and buildings.......and you have more and more renewable energy.

Prices are set AT THE MARGIN.   And it is being "nibbled at" by renewables.

My intermediate term call on Exxon remains $60.....and its at $83 right now.

Wait till you hear all the screaming and hollering in Trumpland when Exxon gets down to $60.....
Those poor oil companies....how can the Trump cabinet help them out?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1201 on: February 01, 2017, 01:56:43 AM »
This Is Who Will Pay for Shutting Down North Sea Oil Rigs
• Decommissioning costs shared by buyer and seller in asset sale
• North Sea companies face billions of dollars of liabilities
Quote
Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s $3.8 billion sale of North Sea oil and gas fields creates a model for further transactions in a region where the question of who pays to remove decades-old offshore platforms has been an obstacle for other deals.

Shell’s agreement with Chrysaor Holdings Ltd. included the condition that Europe’s largest oil company covers $1 billion in decommissioning costs, leaving the private-equity-backed explorer with an estimated $2.9 billion of liabilities. Sharing end-of-life costs between buyers and sellers is likely to remain the trend in the North Sea, where the billions of dollars of spending required to remove aging platforms and pipelines over the coming years presents a “real challenge” to deal-making, according to consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd....
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-31/shell-shows-how-to-remove-obstacles-to-north-sea-oil-deals
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1202 on: February 01, 2017, 01:08:20 PM »
Exxon reported UNDERWHELMING earnings the other day.  They had a $2 billion dollar write down of assets from the purchase of properties under Rex Tillerson's watch.

As well....Exxon has been slow to MARK DOWN their assets "in the ground" (oil and gas reserves) as the prices of oil and gas moved lower.  The SEC is doing an investigation into Exxon's reporting....and THAT basically has forced Exxon to write down assets.  I expect MORE write downs in the future.

Tillerson....like many crooked CEO's....often do NOT want to face up to write downs.  For instance......GE's former CEO Jack Welsh left the incoming CEO Jeff Imelt with a BOATOAD of writedowns when he left office back in the early 2000's.

It's a LACK OF ETHICS.  So Tillson will fit in PERFECTLY in the almost ethics free zone of Trump's cabinet.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/31/the-associated-press-exxon-reports-big-drop-in-4q-profit-takes-gas-write-down.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1203 on: February 01, 2017, 02:34:48 PM »
Good news!  And, fewer stations in all will be needed, because most drivers will use chargers in their garage.  Regular trips to "fill up" will be gone; only longer-distance travelers will need to stop in.  Unless their coffee is really, really good!  ;D

Shell says it will start installing electric vehicle chargers at its gas stations this year
Quote
In a future where the world’s car fleet is rapidly transitioning to electric vehicles, gas stations will be forcefully downgraded to simple convenience stores and consequently, they will lose a significant revenue stream brought in by people stopping for gas but buying something at the convenience store.

Some oil companies have accepted that the transition is happening and started installing electric vehicle chargers at their gas stations. Shell is the latest major company to jump on board.

The company says that they will start deploying the charging stations in Britain and the Netherlands later this year.
...
Total, the major French multinational oil and gas company, announced last year a $300 million investment to install about 200 MW of solar capacity at 5,000 gas stations around the world. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/02/01/shell-electric-vehicle-chargers-gas-stations/
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1204 on: February 01, 2017, 04:06:54 PM »
Quote
Total, the major French multinational oil and gas company, announced last year a $300 million investment to install about 200 MW of solar capacity at 5,000 gas stations around the world. ...

Total also owns more than 50% of US solar manufacturing company Sun Power.

They....."get it".  They are a BROAD energy company....and have seen for many years where the energy field is heading.



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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1205 on: February 02, 2017, 08:28:53 PM »
U.S.:  House votes to repeal anti-corruption law for oil companies abroad
House Republicans have pushed to roll back a rule that forces oil and gas companies to disclose payments to foreign governments.
Quote
...
Bipartisan-authored and far-sighted in its foreign-policy aims, the [original] rule was spearheaded largely by Richard Lugar, a former Republican senator from Indiana who was a major voice on foreign-policy issues for nearly four decades before being swept out of office by the 2012 tea party insurgency.

By improving transparency in countries beset by the “resource curse” – in which oil and other natural resources end up pitching local societies into conflict rather than prosperity and democracy – the amendment sought to encourage stability and economic self-sufficiency.
...
http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2017/0201/House-votes-to-repeal-anti-corruption-law-for-oil-companies-abroad
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1206 on: February 03, 2017, 10:20:07 PM »
Maryland’s moratorium on fracking has expired, but lawmakers are seeking to make it permanent.
Quote
No one is fracking in Maryland right now — and lawmakers there just introduced a bill to ensure the practice is permanently banned.

With 23 co-sponsors, the fracking ban introduced this week already has the support of nearly half of the state senate. An assembly version of the bill is expected to be introduced next week.

Lawmakers are rushing to enact a ban before a two-year moratorium expires in May. ...
https://thinkprogress.org/another-state-legislature-just-introduced-a-ban-on-fracking-d6b073286cec
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1207 on: February 04, 2017, 02:52:20 PM »
“You faced down attack dogs, blizzards and rubber bullets,” legislation co-sponsor and Councilmember Kshama Sawant told the crowd Wednesday in the council chambers, referring to protest camps in North Dakota that drew thousands of demonstrators, including many from Washington tribes. “If we do not fight we will not win.”

‘Divestment is our goal’: Seattle City Council to vote on pulling $3 billion from Wells Fargo over Dakota Access Pipeline
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/environment/protesters-call-for-seattles-billions-to-be-pulled-from-wells-fargo-over-dakota-access-pipeline/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1208 on: February 08, 2017, 01:28:40 AM »
"On Jan. 24, President Trump signed a memorandum encouraging the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to expedite the review and approval process, and last week the Army said that it had been directed to expedite its review of the route."

Army Approves Dakota Access Pipeline Route, Paving Way For The Project's Completion
Quote
In a letter to Congress announcing the decision, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army Paul Cramer cited the president's memorandum, saying that "consistent with the direction" in the memo, his agency would "waive its policy to wait 14 days after Congressional notification before granting an easement."

He wrote that the Army would officially grant the easement as soon as Wednesday afternoon, at which point the company building the pipeline, Energy Transfer Partners, would be able to begin construction.
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/02/07/513951600/army-approves-dakota-access-pipeline-route-paving-way-for-the-projects-completio
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1209 on: February 08, 2017, 01:40:19 AM »
Bill McKibben: Just a reminder that building Dakota pipeline is carbon equivalent of building 30 coal-fired power plants
http://priceofoil.org/2016/09/12/the-dakota-access-pipeline-will-lock-in-the-emissions-of-30-coal-plants/ #nodapl

https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/829094747612598273
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1210 on: February 14, 2017, 08:55:13 PM »
Bill McKibben:  Who'd a thunk it? The guy making much of the steel for KXL pipeline is a Russian oligarch who gave Putin a yacht.

How a Russian Steel Oligarch and Putin Ally Is Profiting from the Keystone XL Pipeline
Quote
... In fact, a DeSmog investigation reveals that much of the steel for Keystone XL has already been manufactured and is sitting in a field in rural North Dakota.

DeSmog has uncovered that 40 percent of the steel created so far was manufactured in Canada by a subsidiary of Evraz, a company partly owned by Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, who is a close ally of Putin and a Trump family friend. Evraz has also actively lobbied against provisions which would mandate that Keystone XL's steel be made in the U.S....
https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/02/13/abramovitch-putin-keystone-xl-steel
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DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1211 on: February 14, 2017, 10:55:31 PM »
Bill McKibben: Just a reminder that building Dakota pipeline is carbon equivalent of building 30 coal-fired power plants
http://priceofoil.org/2016/09/12/the-dakota-access-pipeline-will-lock-in-the-emissions-of-30-coal-plants/ #nodapl

https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/829094747612598273

You do know that the oil to be carried by XL is coming down  anyway with trains and such....

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1212 on: February 15, 2017, 01:52:56 AM »
Bill McKibben: Just a reminder that building Dakota pipeline is carbon equivalent of building 30 coal-fired power plants
http://priceofoil.org/2016/09/12/the-dakota-access-pipeline-will-lock-in-the-emissions-of-30-coal-plants/ #nodapl

https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/829094747612598273

You do know that the oil to be carried by XL is coming down  anyway with trains and such....
But we don't have to make it easier, and destroy more of the environment doing it!
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DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1213 on: February 15, 2017, 03:24:19 AM »
Bill McKibben: Just a reminder that building Dakota pipeline is carbon equivalent of building 30 coal-fired power plants
http://priceofoil.org/2016/09/12/the-dakota-access-pipeline-will-lock-in-the-emissions-of-30-coal-plants/ #nodapl

https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/829094747612598273

You do know that the oil to be carried by XL is coming down  anyway with trains and such....
But we don't have to make it easier, and destroy more of the environment doing it!

Still safer than trains as we have seen the last few years.

And energy will flow where energy will flow.if it does not come from the north it will come from Mexico or Venezuela or Middle East. Demand carbon tax on fuels to reduce ff demand.

The extra 30 coal plant equivalent is a false claim if the oil will come down anyway....

It will be far more effective to focus on converting all coal plants to natural gas or renewables than trying to stop a single pipeline...

AbruptSLR

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1214 on: February 15, 2017, 03:26:10 PM »
The first linked article is entitled: "What Oil Crisis? Arctic Drilling Off Norway Set for Record"; and together with the second article indicates that there is plenty of fossil fuels planned to be developed even with today's relatively low market prices.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-14/what-oil-crisis-arctic-exploration-off-norway-set-for-record

Extract: "Explorers look set to drill a record number of wells in Norway’s Arctic waters this year, undeterred by oil prices apparently stuck below $60 a barrel."

The second linked article is entitled: "The United States of oil and gas", and the associated image shows how unconventional fossil fuels in the US have keep production rates relatively high in recent years.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/united-states-of-oil/

Extract: "Since 2010, the United States has been in an oil-and-gas boom. In 2015, domestic production was at near-record levels, and we now produce more petroleum products than any other country in the world. President Trump said he plans to double down on the oil and gas industry, lifting regulations and drilling on federal land."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1215 on: February 15, 2017, 10:52:07 PM »
Update on oil and gasoline production.

Crude Oil Price Dips on Record Inventory Levels
Quote
... Now that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has confirmed that the promised crude oil production cuts met 90% of their reductions in January, investors and traders are beginning to look ahead to a possible extension of the cuts beyond the agreed six-month period ending in June.

By most estimates, global inventories already have begun to decline slightly and will continue to be drained if producers continue to observe their promised reductions. There are a couple of things to consider. First, if prices continue to rise as the producers maintain compliance with their production levels, the historical evidence indicates that compliance becomes a little less important and some cheating occurs.

Second, if the cuts are not extended beyond June, production could jump back up by a million barrels a day virtually overnight.
The July to September quarter typically sees U.S. demand for crude rise by 840,000 barrels a day compared with demand in the January to March quarter. Demand also rises sharply in the Middle East as the summer heat drives up demand for electricity for air conditioning. The third quarter is also the time of year when producers in the North Sea reduce production in order to perform maintenance. ...
http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2017/02/15/crude-oil-price-dips-on-record-inventory-levels/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1216 on: February 15, 2017, 11:00:13 PM »
Trump and GOP killed an energy anti-corruption rule for no good reason, advocates say
Quote
... Overturning the rule could actually make things more difficult for energy companies listed on both U.S. and foreign exchanges, said Zorka Milin, senior legal adviser for Global Witness, an anti-corruption and environmental group.

Under the Congressional Review Act, a new rule cannot be substantially similar to the original one. Since the first disclosure rule was "substantially similar" to European and Canadian regulations, it will be difficult to create a new rule that dovetails with those foreign regulations and meets the requirements of the Congressional Review Act.

That would likely lead to the creation of two different rules with which dually listed companies would need to comply, Milin said. ...
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/14/trump-and-gop-killed-energy-corruption-rule-for-no-good-reason-advocates-say.html
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DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1217 on: February 15, 2017, 11:30:37 PM »
This is stupid.....

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1218 on: February 21, 2017, 01:51:26 AM »
Saudi Arabia Breaks Records on Oil Exports and Output for Year
Saudi Arabia boosted oil exports and production last year to the highest monthly averages on record as the global crude market endured oversupply.
Quote
Saudi Arabia led the push by global producers to end a crude glut by cutting output as of Jan. 1. JODI data indicate that the kingdom’s exports surged to more than 8 million barrels a day in November and December right before the cuts were due to start. Shipments in November were the highest since May 2003, JODI data show.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-20/saudi-arabia-breaks-records-on-oil-exports-and-output-for-year-izel5r0c
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1219 on: February 21, 2017, 03:30:29 AM »
Facebook’s Market Value Passes Exxon’s
Quote
In Exxon’s case, the company has already said it is going to have to write down the carrying value of its assets — the only question is by how much. Last week Exxon indicated that up to 3.6 billion barrels of its Canadian oil sands reserves are no longer profitable to extract.

Diminishing value for Exxon’s proved reserves could be temporary and the recent production cuts undertaken by OPEC and a few other large producers may boost prices for crude back to where the unprofitable barrels of reserves once again become profitable.

Alternatively, there is also the possibility that the world has reached (or is about to reach) “peak demand” for oil and barrels in the ground will stay there indefinitely....
http://247wallst.com/investing/2017/02/19/facebooks-market-value-passes-exxons/
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1220 on: February 21, 2017, 02:41:34 PM »
Will be interesting to see what the price of oil and gasoline do in coming weeks.  Gasoline inventories in the US are at record highs....even for February (usually a high month).

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGTSTUS1&f=W

Looking for oil to spend a LOT of time in the $40 - $60 dollar range in coming months and maybe the next couple of years.  When oil gets near $60....frackers come in and supply more oil....no matter what the Mideast does.

And again...we're just near the beginning.....but electric/hybrid cars are "nibbling at the edges" of the demand side for oil.  And that nibble will continually get larger.....slowly at first.....



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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1221 on: February 21, 2017, 03:07:27 PM »
The "markets" are now getting near the point where fossil fuels and renewables will be "diverging."  Historically....they trade "roughly" together:  When one goes up...the others TYPICALLY tend to go up.

But it "looks" like we're getting near the point where oil may be caught in the "doldrums" of a trading range between $40 - $60....and renewables look ready to "take off."

Even though renewables are still only a small portion of the energy market....that "small portion" is becoming larger and larger.  When numbers are small....a 30% annual increase may not mean much....but as those base numbers grow larger and larger, then all of the sudden a 30% on a LARGER BASE means more and more with each succeeding year that goes by.  THAT.....is where I believe we are at NOW.  That NEXT inflection point....

Outside of an international "incident"/war.....oil is becoming captive to the demand side, and renewables are continuing to eat away at that demand side.  In the next 2 - 3 years, the impact is only going to grow larger.....

The large oil players are in big trouble......and Goldman Sachs and the other lying investment banks are going to have to be on their lying best to push the Saudi Aramco IPO to market this year.  That is one of the reasons that OPEC cut back on production....specifically Saudi Arabia.....to support the oil price so they can bring Saudi Aramco to market in the IPO.

Interesting times........
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1222 on: February 22, 2017, 04:38:45 PM »
New York Mayor Warns Wells Fargo over Dakota Access Pipeline
Quote
New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio warned Wells Fargo & Company over its funding for the Dakota Access pipeline, saying he has the power to pull the plug on the bank’s contract for operating accounts.

“I am writing to express my deep concern about your involvement, and the involvement of other banks, in financing the Dakota Access Pipeline,” de Blasio wrote in a Feb. 17 letter to Wells Fargo CEO Timothy Sloan.

He said his concern stemmed from the fact that he is the mayor of a “coastal city threatened by climate change" and that such a structure carrying half a million of barrels a day “would violate human and tribal rights of the Standing Rock Indian Reservation” as well as the “global environment.”

“A handful of millionaires and billionaires in the fossil fuel industry might benefit, but this pipeline is a disaster for the rest of us,” he added.

The mayor stated that he has the last say over US$165 billion in contracts with several banks related to the benefits and payrolls of more than 700,000 New York City employees adding that he takes his “fiduciary duties seriously,” in a veiled warning to Wells Fargo....
http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/New-York-Mayor-Warns-Wells-Fargo-over-Dakota-Access-Pipeline-20170220-0002.html
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1223 on: February 24, 2017, 04:04:06 PM »
Saudi Aramco about to get "reality check":

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-23/saudi-arabia-2-trillion-aramco-vision-runs-into-market-reality

The Saudi's were trying to get a valuation of about 2 Trillion (with a T) for Saudi Aramco as they go public.  As I noted over the past weeks....I think the Saudi's were "late to the party" in trying to IPO Saudi Aramco.  They are NOT going to get the valuation they want....and that is AFTER Saudi Arabia has cut back oil production to support the price of oil.

In coming weeks and months...I expect oil stocks to SUFFER in the market.  I believe the next 8 months or so will not be kind to oil stocks.  We'll see if I am right or not.  I have long felt Exxon is headed to the low $60's level....  It peaked in 2014.

The lying investment banks have a LOT riding on the IPO of Saudi Aramco....so they will be doing their best to talk up oil stocks.  I think their attempts will be fruitless. 
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1224 on: February 24, 2017, 05:02:08 PM »
The combination of.....

1)  Saudi Aramco IPO coming to market, and likely coming to market WAY UNDER what was expected...

2)  Possible (I believe) continued weakness in other oil companies in the market

3)  A warm spring/summer in the US and Canada (and elsewhere)

4)  Oil Barons embedded in the Trump white house.....

5)  April 22nd March for science....and growing awareness that "hey....this shit is real"....

Those 5 things are coming together in a very interesting.....and perhaps a VERY BIG AND POWERFUL WAY.

When does the game of "musical chairs" for the oil companies continue in earnest?
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1225 on: February 24, 2017, 05:19:33 PM »
And when do people finally figure out this isn't anything to do with a "Trump rally" in the stock market.....

It is about an ENERGY RALLY.  More specifically......a rally in renewable energy AND all other companies that USE ENERGY.  Because.....

1)  Energy costs for EVERYONE will continue to go down in coming years....which is like a tax break for EVERYONE IN THE WORLD.  Both individuals AND businesses.

2)  Costs of FUTURE HEALTH ISSUES comes down because of LESS POLLUTION.  Difficult to quantify...but VERY...VERY....REAL.

This is an energy rally....not a Trump rally.  And more specifically a CLEAN ENERGY RALLY. 

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1226 on: February 26, 2017, 04:16:18 PM »
Unplugged Natural Gas Leak Threatens Alaska's Endangered Cook Inlet Belugas
A natural gas pipeline has been leaking since at least Feb. 7 and the company says it can't safely stop the flow of gas.
Quote
Natural gas from a 52-year-old underwater pipeline has been leaking for at least two weeks into Cook Inlet in Alaska, home to a number of endangered species, including beluga whales.

The company that owns the pipeline, Hilcorp, has said that the pipeline cannot be shut down without posing additional risk to the environment or employee safety because stopping the flow could trigger a crude oil leak. The 8-inch pipeline, which carries natural gas from shore to four offshore oil platforms, is leaking an estimated 210,000 to 310,000 cubic feet of natural gas each day, according to the company.

"It's a fairly decent sized ongoing leak of methane, especially when it's unclear when they'll actually get it shut down," said Carl Weimer, the executive director of the nonprofit Pipeline Safety Trust. "Lots of methane going in the air is a concern as well as how it might be messing with the habitat."
...
Hilcorp said in a statement that some amount of gas needs to flow through the pipeline. "If a minimum pressure is not maintained in the pipeline it could fill with water which would allow for the escape of residual crude oil, as this line was previously used as a crude oil pipeline," the statement said. Hilcorp did not respond to a request for comment.

Bob Shavelson, of the nonprofit Cook Inletkeeper, questions the company's insistence that the pipeline cannot be shut down. "They're continuing to allow this gas to leak," he said. "They don't want to shut down the platforms that are producing their profits."

Hilcorp was established in 1989 and has a strategy called "acquire and exploit," meaning it buys oil and gas operations that are already producing in hopes of earning any remaining profits. Hilcorp has become the primary producer in Cook Inlet using this strategy, thanks to acquisitions it has made in recent years from ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Marathon Oil and XTO, a subsidiary of ExxonMobil. One of its acquisitions—Platform A, which is powered by the leaking pipeline—is among the oldest in the inlet, having been built by Shell in 1964....
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/24022017/cook-inlet-gas-leak-alaska-hilcorp-beluga-whales
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oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1227 on: February 26, 2017, 04:44:35 PM »
Buddy, do you have any data actually showing a slowdown in oil consumption? As I understand it oil price crashed not because of lower demand but because of a sharp rise in supply due to fracking.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1228 on: February 26, 2017, 06:47:18 PM »
Quote
Buddy, do you have any data actually showing a slowdown in oil consumption? As I understand it oil price crashed not because of lower demand but because of a sharp rise in supply due to fracking.

No I don't.....because consumption has still been rising slightly.  As you note....it was the SUPPLY SIDE that killed the oil market.  By the way....that is USUALLY the way most markets "top".....suppliers get greedy and EVERYONE wants to supply more.  Then there is way too much supply, and the markets tank.  Whether you are talking oil, houses, computer chips, etc.....the human psyche never changes.

And right now....the frackers, who got killed at $30 oil.....many of them are doing just fine at $50 - $55 oil.  And those that wanted to "wait and see if oil prices hold up"....have been cautiously wading back into the waters (and land ;)) by adding more rigs.

http://www.businessinsider.com/baker-hughes-rig-count-february-24-2017-2017-2

The thing that we JUST DON'T KNOW is how fast will the uptick in electric vehicles take place.  I think it is going to START TO EXPLODE IN ABOUT 2 YEARS TIME FROM NOW.  That is when people will look around and say:  "Why would I buy a car that will be worthless in 3 years" (which is 5 years from NOW).

THAT....is when oil has a REAL PROBLEM.

Here is an article from the Rocky Mtn Research Institute re peak oil:

http://energypost.eu/peak-car-will-accelerate-peak-oil/

I am NOT an expert in oil markets.  The folks at Rocky Mtn Institute are experts in ENERGY issues...  They provide some very thoughtful information..

 


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DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1229 on: February 26, 2017, 07:50:18 PM »

Quote
Buddy, do you have any data actually showing a slowdown in oil consumption? As I understand it oil price crashed not because of lower demand but because of a sharp rise in supply due to fracking.

Wrong ( almost ). Oil prices crushed because the increase in demand was less than anticipated and the knob to reduce oil flow was not there due to fracking and independent US producers and the need of oil producers to keep producing for free cash flow.  Oil demand was less due to economic slowdown, reduction in gasoline demand ( increased efficiency, electric and hybrid cars, etc), increase in renewable electric energy, increase in energy efficiency, etc.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1230 on: February 26, 2017, 09:20:46 PM »
The Chinese economy reached the point a while ago where increased incomes drive much greater levels of personal mobility - i.e. cars powered by oil, rather than coal for electricity. The Chinese car market is now at an annual sales level of 27 million units/year versus 17.5 million in the U.S. A big chunk of Chinese sales were SUV's, less than 500,000 were electric or hybrid (less than the overall growth in vehicle sales). The latter did grow about 60% y-o-y due to subsidies, which will be removed by 2020.

In the U.S. there a lot of older cars being scrapped, offsetting new sales, which is not the case in China and India. So the relative increase in actual cars on the road is even greater. As the article says "All of this points more crude oil demand coming out of East Asia in the coming years". After very rapid growth, the Indian car market topped out for the past few years, although seems to be growing again though. Still under 3 million cars per year.

Its the China+India trends (2.6 billion people) trends in personal transport, and air flight, that will be driving oil demand. Much more than US + Europe (about 14 million units/year), with the latter now growing again and above its previous peak in 2010. If China+India maintain significant growth, could be quite a bit of extra oil demand by the end of the decade.

http://www.realclearenergy.org/charticles/2017/02/13/httpwwwrealclearenergyorgcharticles20170213the_jaw-dropping_growth_in_chinese_car_sales_110186.html

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/news/industry-news/how-more-electric-cars-are-sold-in-china-than-the-rest-of-the-world-combined/article33615077/

http://www.acea.be/press-releases/article/passenger-car-registrations-9.3-in-2015-16.6-in-december

oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1231 on: February 27, 2017, 05:46:29 PM »
I think this chart says clearly that demand growth was steady while production growth was too fast. I really hope for the day that oil demand slows down, but I believe it hasn't come yet.
Source: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.cfm


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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1232 on: February 27, 2017, 06:01:24 PM »
Quote
I think this chart says clearly that demand growth was steady while production growth was too fast.

Agreed......


Quote
I really hope for the day that oil demand slows down, but I believe it hasn't come yet.

It's coming.....give it 2 - 4 years.  It will get here..... Economics is going to kill ICE vehicles along with functionality. 



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TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1233 on: February 27, 2017, 11:59:25 PM »

It's coming.....give it 2 - 4 years.  It will get here..... Economics is going to kill ICE vehicles along with functionality.


But will it be American economics, European economics, or the inscrutable economics of China?


From rboyd's post it appears that even as China leads the world in production of EVs, their subsidies are being cut and will end in 2020. Chinese growth in ICVs is what will determine the near future's dependency on fossil fuels for personal transportation, with American and European influence waning.


Recent treaties with Russia assure huge flows of cheap oil into China, and the agreements have large minimum purchase requirements. China will pay for a certain inflow whether they have use for it or not.
This may influence Chinese economics in such a way as to favor ICE vehicles even at times when in the rest of the world EVs are a less expensive alternative.


I believe Lithuania is in a similar predicament with regard to LNG shipments at it's new regasification terminal as they try to compete with Russian pipeline gas. This is complicated by the noncompetitive price of LPG. Gas from the pipe is selling for 17-18 Eu/MWH while Lithuanian LNG is at 32.82Eu/MWH. So few customers are eager to face such a jump in prices that Lithuania is now toying with the idea of bunkering her ships with LNG and is attempting to renegotiate minimum purchases with Statoil.


http://www.lrt.lt/en/news_in_english/29/119304/klaipeda_lng_terminal_one_year_on_independence_or_responsibility


http://www.lngworldnews.com/lithuania-looking-to-alter-lng-supply-deal-with-statoil/


These take or play contracts, written to protect both buyer and seller, can be large enough, and so long lasting that they alter economic realities. As long as producers are locked into delivering large amounts of fossil fuel, and consuming nations are legally bound to receive these amounts, BAU continues.


Terry

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1234 on: February 28, 2017, 01:13:26 AM »
Quote
I think this chart says clearly that demand growth was steady while production growth was too fast.

Agreed......


Quote
I really hope for the day that oil demand slows down, but I believe it hasn't come yet.

It's coming.....give it 2 - 4 years.  It will get here..... Economics is going to kill ICE vehicles along with functionality.

It takes about 15 in a good economy to replace the US car fleet... elsewhere takes longer..

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1235 on: February 28, 2017, 01:13:41 AM »
Yet another article -- this one for investors -- noting Exxon's worthless oil assets; peak oil demand approaching faster than Exxon admits; and the faster than expected adoption of electric cars.  These are no longer considered to be outlandish ideas!

"Clean energy could be nearing an inflection point, with dire implications for oil companies like ExxonMobil."

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Should Keep an Eye on Tesla Inc (TSLA)
XOM stock is being threatened by electric vehicle makers -- namely TSLA
Quote
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) stock is down 9.65% year to date; the company has had a rough start to 2017. First, a $2 billion asset impairment charge on gas assets in the Rocky Mountains clouded XOM’s fourth-quarter earnings call on Jan. 31.

Then, on Feb. 22, XOM announced that it had to write off 3.3 billion barrels of oil in reserves at the end of 2016. With oil prices in the mid $50s, getting oil from some of XOM’s Canadian oil sands is no longer profitable.

This represents a massive destruction of value for holders of Exxon stock. A decade ago, XOM invested approximately $20 billion in these Canadian oil sands amid concern over peak oil. Unless oil prices rise, those billions will have been wasted.

There could be more such downside surprises in store for Exxon as well. Further developments in clean energy could wipe billions more off the balance sheets of oil companies like XOM.

XOM’s Rosy View of Oil’s Future

Unlike Royal Dutch Shell plc (ADR) (NYSE:RDS.A), whose CFO said that oil demand could peak as soon as 2020, XOM expects oil to dominate past the year 2040.

McKinsey & Co. expects oil demand to peak by 2030, with electric vehicles representing 30% of new vehicles sold that year. XOM, on the other hand, doesn’t see electric vehicles passing 10% of new vehicles sold in the U.S. until 2040. ...
http://investorplace.com/2017/02/exxon-mobil-corporation-xom-should-keep-eye-tesla-tsla/
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1236 on: March 02, 2017, 02:42:25 PM »
Not only is Donnie's "swamp" not draining ;)......neither is the level of oil inventory:

=========================================================
Oil prices fell on Thursday after U.S. crude stocks hit an all-time high and official data showed Russian oil production unchanged in February, with no further cuts to tighten the market and drain global oversupply.

Benchmark Brent crude oil was down 75 cents a barrel at $55.61 by 1310 GMT. U.S. light crude was 75 cents lower at $53.08.

Crude inventories in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, rose by 1.5 million barrels last week to a record 520.2 million barrels, official figures showed.
=========================================================

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN1690B3
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1237 on: March 02, 2017, 04:09:26 PM »
Not only is Donnie's "swamp" not draining ;)......neither is the level of oil inventory:

=========================================================
Oil prices fell on Thursday after U.S. crude stocks hit an all-time high and official data showed Russian oil production unchanged in February, with no further cuts to tighten the market and drain global oversupply.

Benchmark Brent crude oil was down 75 cents a barrel at $55.61 by 1310 GMT. U.S. light crude was 75 cents lower at $53.08.

Crude inventories in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, rose by 1.5 million barrels last week to a record 520.2 million barrels, official figures showed.
=========================================================

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN1690B3

The oil glut in the US is likely to keep growing due to the fact that the tight oil has a limited market.
The site below is a bit of a doomer site in that they figure the end of FF is the end of civilization period. We can't possibly live without it! However they you can find good global market analysis at the site.
"[ Below are some interesting observations of Bedford Hill from the peakoil.com ETP Q&A forum. This is not a discussion of his ETP model, but a discussion of why light tight oil can’t replace conventional oil.  It is too light, with the API “density” or gravity not useful for transportation fuels. And he makes the case that the current “oil glut” is partly due to too much light tight oil, which contains 2.8 times less energy than conventional oil, and is mostly used to make plastics and other products."
http://energyskeptic.com/2017/shale-light-tight-oil-from-the-etp-model-qa/

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1238 on: March 02, 2017, 04:39:13 PM »
Quote
The site below is a bit of a doomer site in that they figure the end of FF is the end of civilization period. We can't possibly live without it!

Boy....they are REALLY going to be disappointed when the world EXCELS without FF instead of heading towards an apocalypse. ;)

What WILL be fascinating....is to see the equity markets around the globe CONTINUE TO GRIND HIGHER OVER COMING YEARS.....even as the value of fossil fuel companies grinds LOWER.  That "value" that will continue to come OUT of FF companies......is going to EVERYONE ELSE around the globe.  Everyone's cost of (1) transportation (2) heating (3) other energy uses......those will continue to DECLINE over time....and those $$$$ will be going into EVERYBODY'S POCKETS (except for FF companies).

This will be a HUGE shift in fortune WITHIN the stock market.  Exxon, Chevron, Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, etc.....going to be BIG LOSERS......while the overall stock market GRINDS HIGHER.

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DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1239 on: March 02, 2017, 07:06:04 PM »
Quote
The site below is a bit of a doomer site in that they figure the end of FF is the end of civilization period. We can't possibly live without it!

Boy....they are REALLY going to be disappointed when the world EXCELS without FF instead of heading towards an apocalypse. ;)

What WILL be fascinating....is to see the equity markets around the globe CONTINUE TO GRIND HIGHER OVER COMING YEARS.....even as the value of fossil fuel companies grinds LOWER.  That "value" that will continue to come OUT of FF companies......is going to EVERYONE ELSE around the globe.  Everyone's cost of (1) transportation (2) heating (3) other energy uses......those will continue to DECLINE over time....and those $$$$ will be going into EVERYBODY'S POCKETS (except for FF companies).

This will be a HUGE shift in fortune WITHIN the stock market.  Exxon, Chevron, Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, etc.....going to be BIG LOSERS......while the overall stock market GRINDS HIGHER.

All good and dandy.  No need to talk about losers or winners. The transition from FF energy to renewables cannot be disruptive. You don't want to lose energy capacity faster than the build up. Otherwise there is going to be suffering somewhere.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1240 on: March 02, 2017, 07:17:42 PM »
Quote
All good and dandy.  No need to talk about losers or winners. The transition from FF energy to renewables cannot be disruptive. You don't want to lose energy capacity faster than the build up. Otherwise there is going to be suffering somewhere.

It depends what you mean by "disruptive."  I'm sure the folks in the FF companies will certainly feel "disrupted."  So did the folks that made mainframe computers......or large bulky TV's.....etc.

Disruptive changes do NOT mean disruptive to the WORLD CONSUMERS....only to those that get displaced (or disrupted ;)).

Supply and demand is at work.  It would have been a lot better for EVERYONE if other forces could have stepped in MUCH EARLIER (like fee and dividend on FF).  But market forces are now prevailing....and will continue to do so.

I also don't MIND that an industry segment that has been HELL BENT ON LYING.....get's slapped down by the market. 





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DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1241 on: March 02, 2017, 09:59:52 PM »
Quote
All good and dandy.  No need to talk about losers or winners. The transition from FF energy to renewables cannot be disruptive. You don't want to lose energy capacity faster than the build up. Otherwise there is going to be suffering somewhere.

It depends what you mean by "disruptive."  I'm sure the folks in the FF companies will certainly feel "disrupted."  So did the folks that made mainframe computers......or large bulky TV's.....etc.

Disruptive changes do NOT mean disruptive to the WORLD CONSUMERS....only to those that get displaced (or disrupted ;)).

Supply and demand is at work.  It would have been a lot better for EVERYONE if other forces could have stepped in MUCH EARLIER (like fee and dividend on FF).  But market forces are now prevailing....and will continue to do so.

I also don't MIND that an industry segment that has been HELL BENT ON LYING.....get's slapped down by the market.

Disruptive to consumers!! If in the middle of a bad winter a few lpg suppliers go bust or the LPG supply tanks some people will be in deep shit. Equally if in the middle of a long summer there is a brown out because a few plants shutdown, that can be serious.

The system is not as elastic as it seems. Kill FF before there is capacity from renewables and there is a world of hurt.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1242 on: March 03, 2017, 04:45:45 PM »
Quote
The system is not as elastic as it seems. Kill FF before there is capacity from renewables and there is a world of hurt.

The current problem isn't that there ISN'T enough capacity/supply (capacity for gasoline refining)...it's that there is (1) too much supply/capacity, and (2) a NEAR FUTURE DROP IN DEMAND for supply.

This is an issue that won't be resolved OVERNIGHT.....the fossil fuel companies are going to die "by a thousand cuts"......year after year....slowly.  And you need to note that we're going from a period of TOO MUCH SUPPLY.....AND....TECHNOLOGY is going to keep working to LOWER the demand side.  So the LONG TERM trends are clear.

Again....there won't be any "significant disruption" on the CONSUMER SIDE.....there WILL BE DIRSUPUPTION on the supply side as the weaker suppliers slowly get whacked.  Same thing happened in computer software.....computer chips.....airlines....etc.  Survival of the fittest.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1243 on: March 05, 2017, 04:18:42 PM »
U..:  Millions Now at Risk From Oil and Gas-Related Earthquakes, Scientists Say
Quote
A new earthquake hazard map for the central and eastern United States shows about 3.5 million people, primarily in Oklahoma and southern Kansas, are at high risk of experiencing a damaging man-made earthquake from oil and gas-related activities this year.

Researchers at the United States Geological Survey have produced a one-year seismic outlook that takes into account both natural and human-caused earthquakes, mainly those generated by the underground disposal of oil and gas wastewater and, to a lesser extent, by fracking itself.

In recent years, there has been a surge in quakes linked to oil and gas activity, including a massive 5.8 event last September in Pawnee, Okla. Some have caused damage to homes, buildings and roads across Oklahoma and elsewhere, sparking public concern and prompting regulators to begin restricting local energy company activities.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/03032017/fracking-earthquakes-natural-gas-oil-oklahoma-kansas-texas
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1244 on: March 07, 2017, 10:39:38 PM »
The author of this excellent letter is a retired EPA toxicologist who explains why we don't need crude oil:   http://www.peer.org/assets/docs/epa/Mimi_Karlsson.pdf

https://twitter.com/peerorg/status/839156837916291076
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1245 on: March 08, 2017, 01:38:37 PM »
Trump, Putin and the Pipelines to Nowhere
You can’t understand what Trump’s doing to America without understanding the “Carbon Bubble”
Quote
...People whose job it is to measure risk in financial markets are extremely concerned about the magnitude of the Carbon Bubble and the damage it will do as it bursts. Because when it bursts, trillions of dollars of imaginary assets will simply vanish in a very short time.

Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England and chair of the Financial Stability Board — the global institution designed to try to prevent market panics and crashes — gave a bombshell talk at Lloyds last year, saying he thought letting the Carbon Bubble continue to grow exposed global markets to a risk on the level of the 2007 subprime crisis.

In other words, one of the most knowledgeable financial authorities on the planet has come to think that the difference between what the high-carbon part of the economy is priced at and what it’s worth is so enormous that letting it grow and then suddenly pop could crash financial markets worldwide.

And he’s far from alone. Scores of experts warn that the Carbon Bubble is one of the biggest threats to the global economy. The way to increase the resilience of global markets, they say, is to act on climate, but to do so with bold-yet-predictable pacing. If we do that — they say — we will still see the Carbon Bubble deflate, but markets should be able to adjust, and panic can be avoided. Climate action will stave off financial disaster as well ecological catastrophe.

This is a win-win for everyone, except those heavily invested in those Carbon Bubble assets now. For these investors, the Carbon Bubble is a good thing: the longer it lasts, the more they reap the benefit of high valuations and large dividends. For them, the larger the Carbon Bubble swells, the more money they make....
https://thenearlynow.com/trump-putin-and-the-pipelines-to-nowhere-742d745ce8fd
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1246 on: March 08, 2017, 04:23:50 PM »
US gasoline inventory near an all time high....as well as US petroleum inventory near an all time high.  NOT GOOD if you are long petroleum.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGTSTUS1&f=W


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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1247 on: March 08, 2017, 05:20:29 PM »
Saudi Arabia has been the "big dog" taking most of the cutbacks in oil production in order to support the price of oil.  And well they should.....because THEY are one's who will most benefit by a higher or stable oil price.....as they bring Saudi Aramco public in an IPO either this year or next.

It will be fascinating to see all the investment banks out lying for Saudi Aramco before and after they do their "road show" sometime over the next year or so.

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanly, and other investment banks will be "talking up" the oil companies in general....and Saudi Aramco specifically.

I hope the rate of technology change keeps going at warp speed on the renewable front......that will continue to weaken the fossil fuel story.

And right now....with all the oil and gasoline in inventory.....I wonder how much longer OPEC can continue to keep oil and gasoline prices inflated.  They may HAVE to do a further cutback if possible....

You just have to wonder at what point are they chasing a rabit down a hole.....they will never catch up to?  Of course.....it is the point at which the "demand curve" breaks down.  We're not there yet....but we're getting there.  With the help of technology continuing to work on efficiency.....we are doing much more, with less oil.  Whether you talk about less demand or more supply.....the effect is the same:  Lower oil prices.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1248 on: March 08, 2017, 09:21:03 PM »
U.S. oil stockpiles are up.  And oil price is going down -- approaching the psychological barrier of $50 a barrel.

Market alert: US oil price plunges toward $50 as a perfect storm brews
Quote
Oil is on track to break through the key psychological level of $50 a barrel after a ninth straight rise in U.S. crude stockpiles came at exactly the wrong moment, analysts said Wednesday.

The amount of crude oil in U.S. storage rose to another record high on Wednesday, jumping 8.2 million barrels from the previous week, the Energy Information Administration reported. The increase was more than four times what analysts expected.

Weekly figures also showed U.S. oil production continuing to tick up toward 9.1 million barrels a day, the highest level in more than a year. That provided further evidence that rising American output is confounding efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and 10 other exporters to reduce global oil inventories by curbing their own output. ...
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/08/market-alert-us-oil-price-plunges-to-50-as-a-perfect-storm-brews.html
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1249 on: March 08, 2017, 09:45:57 PM »
At some point.....the big oil companies are going to have to cut back on their dividend payouts....and THAT is going to "whack" their stock price.

I think Exxon is especially vulnerable to a possible cut in dividends sometime over the coming year.  Eventually they are going to be forced to "see the writing on the wall."

Just as the new CEO of Coca Cola has said publicly that carbonated drinks are NOT the future of the Coke company........fossil fuel companies are going to have to face the music of a new energy and transportation paradigm.  One without the burning of fossil fuels.

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