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Author Topic: Oil and Gas Issues  (Read 190540 times)

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1300 on: April 19, 2017, 01:58:08 AM »
IIRC Russia has been budgeting for $40 oil for some years now. Anything over $40 is pure gravy.

What do they call it when it goes to $30 - $35?  Sour gravy?

Economic collapse. 

e.g., Venezuela. 

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1301 on: April 19, 2017, 04:44:28 AM »
Looks like oil may have to drop a long way to remove significant shale oil supply - Wall Street is increasing funding to the sector at $50 oil.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Wall-Street-Is-Pouring-Money-Back-Into-Shale.html



Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1302 on: April 19, 2017, 05:35:12 AM »
From that article -

Shale funders look at the economics today and see a lot of projects that work in the $40 to $55 range,

OPEC wants to push oil prices to $60.  At $60 the price of gas would be around $2.35/gallon plus tax.  That would be good for EVs.  Good, not great.  It would make it about half as much per mile for an EV vs. a 40 MPG ICEV (plus oil changes).

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1303 on: April 19, 2017, 05:33:17 PM »
With the rig count ramping up in the US, and still quite a bit of oil supply off the market (e.g. Libya), looks like OPEC will lose. We may very well see sub-$40 well before $60.

US oil production lags the rig count, so we could see record US production a few months from now.
« Last Edit: April 19, 2017, 06:39:09 PM by rboyd »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1304 on: April 19, 2017, 07:02:51 PM »
I don't really understand the graph. I have an understanding of what "rig count" means, but what is "rig count lag", and how do they project values into the future?  Production, it appears, is self explanatory.  (An internet search of "rig count lag" didn't help!)  If there was no "lag", would the green and blue lines be close to each other or would there be no future values, or both?
(Thanks in advance.)
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DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1305 on: April 19, 2017, 07:06:47 PM »
I don't really understand the graph. I have an understanding of what "rig count" means, but what is "rig count lag", and how do they project values into the future?  Production, it appears, is self explanatory.  (An internet search of "rig count lag" didn't help!)  If there was no "lag", would the green and blue lines be close to each other or would there be no future values, or both?
(Thanks in advance.)

Rigs drill, after drilling there is a lag from completion to fracking to production. Some producers drill fast ( to increase drilling rig productivity) and the complete frack and produce when economically favorable or to space out productive wells. Try searching for DUCs... drilled but not completed wells.
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rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1306 on: April 19, 2017, 08:34:14 PM »
Tp Toj Bejnar:

There is a lag between the startup of the rig and actual flow of oil. To show the future effect of the rig count on oil production, they have moved the rig count to the right in time (e.g. moved each new rig count out 3 months), giving an estimate of future oil production.

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1307 on: April 20, 2017, 04:49:46 PM »
I have attached a couple of charts....5 year charts......that show where the price of oil (West Texas Intermediate) has been over the last 5 years.  As well....I have attached a 5 year chart of ExxonMobile (XOM).

For informational purposes only.....Sometimes we forget where things WERE 3 - 5 years ago...
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rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1308 on: April 21, 2017, 03:33:45 AM »
Those charts don't look good, could be another big drop coming for WTI and XOM.

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1309 on: April 21, 2017, 02:03:41 PM »
Exxon and Chevron report their quarterly earnings on April 28th next week.  I expect that they are LIKELY to reduce their dividends by the end of this October (that would be one of the next 3 earnings reports).

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CVX/?p=CVX

So...if it doesn't happen this quarter.....I think it will happen in their quarterly report in July or October.  Clearly....the price of oil/gas over that time WILL have a large impact.....as well as the direction that renewable energy resources take.  I think they are boxing themselves into a corner that they can only get out of by changing/altering their business model......as others are doing in the energy space.

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