I don't really understand the graph. I have an understanding of what "rig count" means, but what is "rig count lag", and how do they project values into the future? Production, it appears, is self explanatory. (An internet search of "rig count lag" didn't help!) If there was no "lag", would the green and blue lines be close to each other or would there be no future values, or both?
(Thanks in advance.)