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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1400 on: May 24, 2017, 07:03:20 PM »
U.S. Bank Becomes First Major Bank to Stop Financing Pipeline Construction
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U.S. Bank has become the first major bank in the U.S. to formally exclude gas and oil pipelines from their project financing. This groundbreaking change to their Environmental Responsibility Policy was publicly announced at the annual shareholders meeting in Nashville in April.

In addition to no longer providing "project financing for the construction of oil or natural gas pipelines," the bank has stated that relationships with their clients in the oil and gas industries will be subject to "enhanced due diligence processes."

As recently as March 2017, U.S. Bank has renewed commitments with Energy Transfer Partners, the company constructing the Dakota Access Pipeline, and with Enbridge Energy, whose pipelines operate within Minnesota. However, advocates are hopeful that the bank's newly released policy will limit other kinds of financing relationships with these industries.
...
A national and international campaign pressuring banks to divest has been highly successful, pulling nearly $4.5 billion from financiers, and a newly launched coalition effort called Mazaska Talks has expanded this effort.
http://www.ecowatch.com/us-bank-divest-pipelines-2408440397.html
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1401 on: May 25, 2017, 05:24:05 PM »
Oil price CONTINUES to be "held captive" by the US frackers.  Nine month agreement to extent the OPEC cutback.....and the market goes "meh".

Frackers keep adding rigs....continuing to put a "cap" on oil price.  Eventually....oil price will fall if demand weakens even a little bit.

Remember.....

1)  Increased efficiencies in both residential and commercial building CONTINUE to negatively effect oil and gas markets.

2)  Inch by inch.....renewables CONTINUE to "nibble away" at the edges of demand....growing larger every day.

3)  Increased technological improvements by the frackers also allow them to make money at a lower price.

4)  Donnie is talking about selling off almost 50% of the US strategic oil reserve.  If THAT were to happen EVENTUALLY.....that would NOT be good for the price of oil. 

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rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1402 on: May 25, 2017, 05:34:30 PM »
Massive Chinese Strategic Petroleum Reserve Build May Be Ending - Removing 1 million barrels per day from global oil demand

If this happens, its a huge issue for the oil market. Falling Chinese short-term demand combined with increased shale output. The U.S. economy also looks very shaky, not good for oil demand.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-Chinas-Oil-Demand-Growth-About-To-Plummet.html

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1403 on: May 25, 2017, 05:43:22 PM »
US oil and gas stocks are hanging by their fingertips.  Again....only a matter of time before the "next leg down" in the oil market.

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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1404 on: May 25, 2017, 07:32:41 PM »
Look for Trump to start selling off US reserves as China's drop in purchasing weakens the price of oil.

Such a winner.  Are we tired of all the winning he's brought us so far?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1405 on: May 27, 2017, 03:33:02 AM »
"The government is cutting imports of food and basic goods at the expense of social unrest to pay its debt."

Venezuela is staying on top of its debts, even with its people going hungry
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/26/why-the-venezuelan-government-is-throwing-its-people-under-the-bus.html
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sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1406 on: May 27, 2017, 06:32:15 AM »
And who owns that debt ?

That is an interesting affair, especially if you look at third world debt over the decades. For example, right now Sri Lanka is paying 95% of revenue in debt sevice.

That is the wealth pump that has enriched the occident at the expense of the orient and the global south for some four centuries.

Unfortunately that wealth pump is faltering, and worse, being diverted to China. As a result the Occident suffers. Hence Trump and Brexit. No money for bread and circuses, the plebes revolt.

I would post this in the Empire thread, except oil and gas have a very large part to play in the debt game.

sidd

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1407 on: May 28, 2017, 12:02:11 AM »
Abiotic gas is a reality, and how we dispose of it could be a game changer.


Assuming we can get to where we're no longer adding man made GHG's to the atmosphere, we may also need to reduce natural CH4 seeps and flares. Even in areas where there are no financial benefits from capturing natural gas there will be environmental imperatives demanding that we burn as much methane as possible.
We've seen CH4 bubbling from ocean seeps, melting permafrost, and from under northern lakes. As AGW sets in we may need to fight not just the anthropomorphic release of greenhouse gas, but also the naturally occurring releases enhanced by the warming that we created. Is it possible that when we've stopped polluting the atmosphere, and have captured and burned all the biotic methane that the warning has produced, the abiotic seeps will still have to be identified and dealt with?
At present many abiotic wells are producing gas fed into pipelines and destined to drive electrical generation or relatively clean residential and industrial heating. We're heading toward more PV and wind sourced electricity, but we need to burn whatever methane we find rather than allowing it to spill into the atmosphere.
It may be that gas fired generators are more environmentally advantageous than the cleanest hydro or PV sources, as long as we're not actively drilling for new gas sources.
If we do nothing CH4 will find it's way into our atmosphere. If we burn it the released CO2 will be bad, but nowhere near as bad as CH4.
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1408 on: May 28, 2017, 12:51:41 AM »
Abiotic gas is a reality, and how we dispose of it could be a game changer.
...
It may be that gas fired generators are more environmentally advantageous than the cleanest hydro or PV sources, as long as we're not actively drilling for new gas sources.
If we do nothing CH4 will find it's way into our atmosphere. If we burn it the released CO2 will be bad, but nowhere near as bad as CH4.
Terry

Another use:  SpaceX and Blue Origin are both developing rocket engines that use methane for fuel.  (In SpaceX's case, because they intend to produce methane fuel on Mars for their return trip.)  :D
You can bet space travel will be on the increase, now that commercial companies are bringing down the cost....

Musk has said space travel is the only mode of transportation that can't be made sustainable at this point.  :)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1409 on: May 28, 2017, 09:05:51 PM »
Trump's strategic oil reserve sale: Some call it 'misguided,' others say it's about time
Quote
The White House's plan to sell off half the country's strategic stockpile of crude oil looks like a hasty decision to some analysts, but to others its an idea whose time has come.

The budget proposal released last Tuesday is projected to reduce the deficit by $16.6 billion over 10 years. It calls for drawing down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve — the world's largest stockpile — over that period.

The reserve, which now totals 687.7 million barrels, was established after the 1970s oil crisis to ensure the U.S. economy would not suffer shocks in times of tight supply. It has only been used three times to counter import cutoffs or for foreign policy purposes.
...
"When the time does come that you really do need the oil that's in this cavern, you can't just snap your fingers and try to pump it from the shale producers, or anywhere else," [John Kilduff, founding partner at energy hedge fund Again Capital] told "Closing Bell" on Tuesday.

"I think it's misguided completely."

He further noted that one would typically want to buy low and sell high. Oil prices have recovered from 12-year lows struck last year, but remain at half the value of their 2014 peaks.
...
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/24/trumps-strategic-oil-reserve-sale-sparks-debate.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1410 on: May 30, 2017, 02:22:09 PM »
"The Dakota Access Pipeline is neither finished nor operational, and it’s already leaking. Yes, really"
https://twitter.com/climatereality/status/869359220734525440

South Dakota looking into Dakota Access oil pipeline leak in Spink County
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A leaky surge pump along the Dakota Access oil pipeline spilled 84 gallons of crude oil in April at the pump station just north of Crandon in Spink County.
...
The pipeline, which will move oil from shale formations in western North Dakota roughly 1,170 miles to Patoka, Ill., is not yet operational. In north-central South Dakota, it cuts through Campbell, McPherson, Edmunds, Faulk and Spink counties.
...
http://www.thepublicopinion.com/news/local_news/s-d-looking-into-dakota-access-oil-pipeline-leak-in/article_d5cc89d6-3589-11e7-8289-bb5fd634f2d1.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1411 on: May 30, 2017, 05:51:44 PM »
I doubt safety is uppermost on their minds. :o

Ensco, Atwood in $839 Million Offshore Driller Merger
Quote
Both companies have struggled with faltering demand for offshore drilling services since oil prices collapsed in the late summer of 2014. Since August of that year, Atwood’s share price has fallen by nearly 80% while Ensco’s has dropped by 88%.

The combined company will own a fleet of 26 floating rigs and 27 jack-up rigs and will have operations in the Gulf of Mexico and offshore of Brazil, West Africa, the Middle East, the North Sea and the Mediterranean.
...
http://247wallst.com/energy-business/2017/05/30/ensco-atwood-in-839-million-offshore-driller-merger/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1412 on: May 30, 2017, 05:59:20 PM »
Barents Sea drilling halted due to technology lawsuit.

Statoil (STO) Halts Drilling in Barents Sea on Court Order
Quote
Integrated energy company Statoil ASASTO recently announced its decision to halt drilling activities in the Barents Sea of the Arctic region. The company was forced to stop the operation subsequent to a court-imposed temporary injunction owing to technology-related battle with Neodrill − provider of drilling technology products in Norway.
...
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/statoil-sto-halts-drilling-in-barents-sea-on-court-order-cm796236
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1413 on: May 31, 2017, 08:24:54 PM »
BREAKING:  Exxon Shareholders Approve Climate Resolution: 62% Vote for Disclosure
107 
The landmark investor vote defied Exxon's management. It requires the oil giant to begin reporting climate-related risks to its business.
Quote
ExxonMobil shareholders voted Wednesday to require the world's largest oil and gas company to report on the impacts of climate change to its business—defying management, and marking a milestone in a 28-year effort by activist investors.

Sixty-two percent of shareholders voted for Exxon to begin producing an annual report that explains how the company will be affected by global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris climate agreement. The analysis should address the financial risks the company faces as nations slash fossil fuel use in an effort to prevent worldwide temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius.

Last year, 38 percent of Exxon shareholders supported essentially the same measure, which at the time was a record.

The vote at Exxon shows the rapid erosion of support for the company's defiant stance on climate disclosure, and it caps a shareholder meeting season that saw unprecedented support for greater corporate disclosure on climate change. In recent weeks, shareholders voted in favor of climate risk analysis at two other major energy companies, Occidental Petroleum and PPL, Pennsylvania's largest utility. Climate-related shareholder resolutions also garnered record support at other big U.S. utilities that rely on fossil fuels: Dominion Resources (47.8%), Duke Energy (46.4%) and DTE Energy (45%).
...
"The average CEO has a tenure of five years, and hedge funds are looking to maybe the next quarter," he said. "Only institutional investors have this longer view. And one of the reasons that support for climate disclosure has been increasing over the years is more and more institutional shareholders are saying, hey, there can be large long-term risk and long-term damage."

Some climate advocacy groups argue that institutional investors should be divesting rather than pushing for disclosure and other changes, which they see as weak responses to the climate crisis. "We don't need Exxon to study how climate change is going to impact its profits; we need them to stop burning fossil fuels. Divest now before it's too late," said Mark Dunlea of PAUSE, an affiliate of the grassroots group 350.org.

New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli has argued active engagement will be more effective in getting companies to change. He called the Exxon shareholder vote an unprecedented victory for investors.

"Climate change is one of the greatest long-term risks we face in our portfolio and has direct impact on the core business of ExxonMobil," DiNapoli said. "The burden is now on ExxonMobil to respond swiftly and demonstrate that it takes shareholder concerns about climate risk seriously."
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/31052017/exxon-shareholder-climate-change-disclosure-resolution-approved
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1414 on: May 31, 2017, 08:49:26 PM »
Tuesday and Wednesday:

Oil prices crushed as traders bet against OPEC, Russia in 'game of chicken'
Quote
The oil market has serious doubts that the production deal between OPEC and Russia is sufficient enough to bring the world oil market back into balance, against a potential wave of new supply.

As a result, traders appeared to be adding to short positions, as crude fell sharply Wednesday morning, analysts said. The decline in oil prices was triggered by news that Libya had increased its production to a three-year high of 827,000 barrels a day.

"The game of chicken between them and the market is back on again," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital.

West Texas Intermediate crude for July settled off 2.7 percent, at $48.32 per barrel after briefly breaking $48. Brent, the international benchmark, dipped temporarily below the psychological $50 for the first time in two weeks, and was down 3 percent at $50.66 in afternoon trading.

Last week, Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC agreed with Russia and other producers to extend their agreement to cut back output by 1.8 million barrels a day for another nine months. But market expectations had been hinging on the idea that producers would take even more barrels off the market because of the overhang of supply. Oil plunged 5 percent last Thursday, after the announcement.

"The meeting was much more of a failure than people realize because of what wasn't achieved. There are no caps on production for Libya, or Nigeria, or Iran," said Kilduff. Libya has shipped an average of 500,000 barrels per day of oil so far this year, up from 300,000 per day last year. Production reached 800,000 barrels per day earlier this month.
...
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/31/oil-prices-crushed-as-traders-bet-against-opec-russia-in-game-of-chicken.html


US crude settles at $48.32, down 2.7%, as rising Libya output stokes supply fears
• Brent crude oil prices fell to a three-week low on Wednesday on news that Libyan output was recovering
• Libya's oil production has risen to 827,000 bpd, climbing above a three-year peak reached earlier this month, the National Oil Corporation said
• U.S. output has climbed to more than 9.3 million bpd, close to top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/30/oil-falls-as-rising-libyan-us-output-undermines-cuts.html
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rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1415 on: May 31, 2017, 08:52:01 PM »
The big institutional investors are between a rock and a hard place with the oil and gas companies. Any major move by them may send a negative signal to the markets that will reduce the value of their remaining fossil fuel holdings. That could cause a lot of "fiduciary responsibility" issues for the fund managers and directors.

Also, oil and gas carry a significant weight in the larger indices. So divestment will cause them to be mismatched against some of the main indices that they are judged against. A lot of personal risk will result. Better to "follow the pack" and be covered by the "no one else saw it coming" excuse.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1416 on: May 31, 2017, 09:13:51 PM »
Seems like the smart move would be to be "the first out".  Grab your capital and flee.

Makes no sense to wait around and let someone else get out before you and cause your investment to crater.

Eighty cents on the dollar is a hell of a lot better than fifteen cents on the dollar.  Got to know when to fold 'em....

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1417 on: May 31, 2017, 09:36:16 PM »
Index funds specifically lack the option active managers can take — to walk away from a stock where they disagree with management. "The index manager can't sell the stock, what can he do? Improve the management. Index funds, including Vanguard, right now are asking for a lot more information."

A big vote against Exxon Mobil, with some heavyweight investors behind it
"Vanguard historically has not supported climate change."
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/31/index-giant-vanguard-does-about-face-on-big-investing-position-report.html
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1418 on: May 31, 2017, 10:35:11 PM »
Index funds, those that  have large holdings (2,000 or more companies) can suffer through losses in one area because the lost business in one area is likely to be taken up by other holdings.

What I'm thinking about are retirement funds and endowment funds.  And private investors.

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1419 on: June 02, 2017, 03:19:14 PM »
Pulling out of the Paris accord may be the final straw for oil prices in the short term over the next several months.  Frackers will continue to drill... and willingly replace OPEC oil.  Now my question turns to just how low will oil price go?  Could we see low $30's?  In the short term that is bad for solar...in the long term it is good for renewables by pushing their costs lower.

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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1420 on: June 02, 2017, 05:31:20 PM »
Oil and solar are not tightly related.  Other than the cost of shipping I can't think of a role that oil plays in solar.

Oil demand is likely to stay about where it is for a few more years.  The cost of oil will likely depend on how much the low cost producers want to sell (and can pump).  The frackers can't undersell most of OPEC suppliers. 

Fracking oil sets the price ceiling because if all cheaper sources are not enough to meet demand fracking can fill any demand gaps.  Fracking oil cuts out more expensive suppliers.

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1421 on: June 02, 2017, 05:51:50 PM »
Once electric vehicles start becoming a significant percentage of the vehicle fleet, requiring more electricity supply, then I can see a more direct competition between oil and renewables in general. A much lower oil price may slow a transition to electric vehicles in the short term by reducing the marginal cost of driving an ICE vehicle.

The frackers, by being able to ramp up quickly in response to higher prices, do set a relatively low ceiling on the oil price (US$50?). If we get any slowdown in economic growth, we could get a pretty quick drop in oil prices before the frackers respond by cutting output. Very hard for OPEC to cut output any more.

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1422 on: June 02, 2017, 05:55:08 PM »
Oil/gas and solar have historically traded in the same direction .  I believe that correlation is now in the process of breaking down.  I expect oil to continue to languish lower....and renewable to continue to slowly rise off their lows.  XOM is now at its 52 week low...and heading lower IMHO.  Oil prices also heading lower.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1423 on: June 02, 2017, 06:40:41 PM »
Solar price has been on an almost constant downslope for the last 30 years.  The only bump-up I can recall was back a few years ago when there was a shortage of processed silicon.  That lasted about two years as a couple new processing plants were brought online.

Oil prices have bounced up and down over a 3x range from low to high.


rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1424 on: June 02, 2017, 06:48:15 PM »
Canada’s Methane Leakage Massively Under-reported, Studies Find

More evidence of the massive underreporting of methane leaks by the industry, putting the lie to the claims that natural gas is a "low-carbon" alternative.

"Our data indicate that the fracking and LNG industry is a much dirtier industry than it is made out to be”

https://thetyee.ca/News/2017/04/27/Canada-Methane-Leakage-Under-Reported/

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1425 on: June 02, 2017, 07:03:45 PM »
Canada’s Methane Leakage Massively Under-reported, Studies Find

More evidence of the massive underreporting of methane leaks by the industry, putting the lie to the claims that natural gas is a "low-carbon" alternative.

"Our data indicate that the fracking and LNG industry is a much dirtier industry than it is made out to be”

https://thetyee.ca/News/2017/04/27/Canada-Methane-Leakage-Under-Reported/


I had read somewhere that ~1/3 of the natural gas was lost to chill the remainder in LNG operations. If true, LNG might be much worse than even coal, particularly considering the GHG effect of CH4 over relatively short periods.


Terry

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1426 on: June 02, 2017, 07:13:20 PM »
I was referring to the price of solar EQUITIES.... not the price of solar panels.  That is why I referenced XOM.  The price of solar equities is now becoming uncorrelated with the price of oil....AND the price of oil equities.
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rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1427 on: June 02, 2017, 07:19:23 PM »
Transporting fracked gas to an LNG terminal, liquefying it and then transporting the LNG across the ocean to the final customer. Then add in the fact that coal produces dimming effects through sulfate aerosols. Yep, LNG probably worse than coal.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1428 on: June 02, 2017, 09:38:01 PM »
Can't turn coal off and on quickly.  Natural gas can be turned off and on quickly.

That's a really basic fact that lots of people don't seem to be able to grasp.  Or, at least, they don't understand why it is important.

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1429 on: June 02, 2017, 10:02:37 PM »
So, you are saying that renewables and natural gas go together like peas in a pod?

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1430 on: June 02, 2017, 10:21:30 PM »
Can't turn coal off and on quickly.  Natural gas can be turned off and on quickly.

That's a really basic fact that lots of people don't seem to be able to grasp.  Or, at least, they don't understand why it is important.


I was specifically targeting LNG. Whatever natural gas we now have needs to be burned before it escapes. There is too much gas now and a moratorium on drilling might keep the price high enough to prevent leaks. LNG adds to the problem.


Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1431 on: June 02, 2017, 10:24:15 PM »
Quote
So, you are saying that renewables and natural gas go together like peas in a pod?


That I am, bucko.

I think I not need to remind you that the Sun doth not shine the clock around, nor doth the wind blow unceasingly.  If you want to shut down a coal plant then you need something to fill out the solar/wind gaps or the grid won't function.

I have some question about NG/methane as a considerable amount of methane is released in coal mining and processing.  A study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimated that surface mined coal releases 1.91 grams of methane per kilogram and underground mined coal releases 4.23 grams of methane per kilogram. 
 
Pamela L. Spath et al, "Life Cycle Analysis of Coal-Fired Power Production," National Renewable Energy Laboratory, June 1999

I see anti-fracking people bringing up the NG leakage problem, which is real.  But I do not see them considering the methane released when coal is mined.  There is also methane released when coal is crushed prior to burning.  Coal might be much, much worse than NG even with NG leaks.


That said, let's assume NG is as bad as coal.  About 50% as bad in terms of CO2 and there's the methane leak problem.   If that assumption is true ( which I question) then a 1:1 coal:NG exchange wouldn't get us anywhere.

But we aren't looking at a 1:1 exchange.  As we add wind and solar we are able to turn off gas plants.  A mix of 40% wind, 30% solar, and 30% NG would mean 0.3x as much atmospheric damage as all coal.  Not perfect, but a lot better than all coal.


Gradually battery prices are dropping so that we can replace gas fill-in with storage.  That's happening on a small scale.  There are several pilot projects where grids are working with battery storage so they can determine the best way to implement.  Battery prices are now low enough to justify their use in a few high priced grids such as Hawaii.

Peas in a pod.  Next generation of pods should have more storage and less NG.  Progress....

crandles

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1432 on: June 02, 2017, 11:27:47 PM »

Peas in a pod.  Next generation of pods should have more storage and less NG.  Progress....

Of course things don't happen a generation at a time. There is a slow steady increasing proportion of solar and wind and slowly decreasing proportion of FF. If the FF is gas nothing much to stop those steady changes from speeding up if the investment is there.


Can it go to 100% renewables even if there are some places with occasional 6 week periods with lots of cloud and no winds to speak of? Sure it can. Batteries are managing daily cycle and that might get to weekly but seems unlikely to get to once a year storage. But there are other methods: If we have 20% nuclear 20% biomass 2% hydro, 29% wind 29% solar. Biomass want to burn when electric prices are high so that 20% is likely to increase assuming some stockpiling of food waste and non edible farm production is possible. Then import a little electric and solar still produces some when cloudy. The placement of renewables like offshore or mountain ridges for wind and desert for solar make them more reliable. The 6 week period may not be at a time of peak annual demand so that might also help.

Basically all these effects may well reduce 6 week period to a shortage of only 2 or 3% of annual demand. What covers those last 2 or 3 percent? We are a long way from 97% ff free yet so there is time to develop and decide between pump up storage or flow batteries or electrolysis/fuel cells or other dispatchable demand like air capture of carbon -> aviation fuel and/or building materials and probably several other choices. 2 or 3 percent should be doable one way or another.

DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1433 on: June 03, 2017, 01:31:55 PM »
Unless your 2-3 % shortage comes in the dead of a cold winter or the peak of a hot summer...

oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1434 on: June 03, 2017, 01:40:45 PM »
Unless your 2-3 % shortage comes in the dead of a cold winter or the peak of a hot summer...
Solutions:
Connecting faraway grids. The probability of having no solar and no wind decreases sharply when you include a large enough area, especially if you include deserts.
Peaker gas plants - only coming online when renewables have low production, and/or when the grid batteries are starting to empty. Kind of like a plug-in hybrid car.

Csnavywx

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1435 on: June 03, 2017, 02:33:16 PM »
I think the issue he's getting at is seasonal storage. Connecting faraway grids in December isn't going to help you all that much. You need seasonal storage to solve that issue permanently. Wind peaks in the shoulder seasons and solar in the summer (generally -- unless you've got monsoon wet/dry type climate). To avoid curtailment, storage (especially seasonal storage) is necessary.

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1436 on: June 03, 2017, 03:06:33 PM »
The issue is when there are multiple days with little or no wind and sun, possible unless there are very long distance (and safe) connections from areas such as deserts. In Northern Europe this possibility has happened, making the need for backup generation/battery capacity in a 100% renewable grid very large.

Biomass+hydro+battery+physical dispersion+demand management, but maybe you will still need some gas plants as well.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1437 on: June 03, 2017, 06:14:16 PM »
We have lots of ways to cover those 2-3 days or extended periods or whatever you want to consider.  The question is "What is the most economical method?".

For Europe it might mean more pump-up hydro storage in the far northern mountains, Switzerland, or underground mines in the 'flatlands'.  Maybe it's transmission to Spain/Portugal/Morocco where the Sun shines in the winter and where offshore wind doesn't follow the same pattern as in the North Sea.  Maybe it's load-shedding.  Maybe it's coal plants converted to biomass or gas plants running on biogas.

Or, probably, it's a combination of all.

We're years, well more than a decade, away from needing to solve this problem.  It's the last one that we'll need to address.  The big job now is to close down fossil fuel plants the "other 99%" of the time. 

If, for now, that means parking coal plants for months and bringing them back up for a few days in the winter and a few in the summer, that's acceptable.  Concentrate on getting them close 95+ of the time and that cuts coal CO2 by 95%.


P-maker

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1438 on: June 04, 2017, 12:53:52 AM »
Bob,

Although I like your optimism, you should also realize that these almost obsolete coal plants staying idle 95 % of the time is no sustainable business case.

Apparently, all wars fought in the Middle East over the past couple of decades have served only one genuine purpose: Keeping the supply of cheap oil low, so that other producers - such as American frackers, North Sea wannabies, Deepwater fools and Arctic terminators could still be in business.  It seems to be a twisted kind of market, if your government - or it’s secret services  - have to start a regional war from time to time in order to keep your oil and gas companies afloat.

Could I suggest that America and China strikes a bilateral deal so that the US does not have to bomb North Korea for no reason and the Chinese do not have to open up for oil production in the South China Sea? That would take a lot of tension out of the regional conflict and it would allow the rest of the world to get on with the switch to efficient renewables and lower energy prices.


Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1439 on: June 04, 2017, 02:06:14 AM »
We currently use gas peakers which have capacity factors of about 5%.  They sit idle for about 95% of the time.  When we do call on them we pay a large MWh price because they have to recover their costs over a short period of operation.

If we want to move completely off fossil fuels we will need some ability to provide power in the rare stretches of low wind/solar input.  At this point we do not know what the most cost efficient method.  And we might find that different grids are best served by different methods. 

Coal plants run on wood waste might be the best for some grids.  The plants are paid off.  We already park some coal plants for months at a time.  And the fuel should be cheap to store (and cheap to obtain).

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1440 on: June 04, 2017, 05:10:51 PM »
I think that even if the dollar costs were slightly higher for gas peakers, the bragging rights for selling only "coal free" electricity might be worth it.
Terry

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1441 on: June 06, 2017, 01:58:25 PM »
Associated with the Saudi-Qatar spat (according to media reports), oil prices dropped yesterday.  Bloomberg reports:
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1442 on: June 08, 2017, 02:17:52 PM »
The slow move south in oil prices towards $40 or below continues.....and the US frackers are providing little upside for the price of oil.

Not good news for Russia or Saudi Arabia.....that is for sure.
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1443 on: June 08, 2017, 02:33:58 PM »
One of the interesting things about the US oil and gasoline inventory numbers yesterday.... was the increase in oil inventory.  I expected the Increase in GASOLINE inventory as refiners prepare for "driving season" which starts in June and people taking their vacations.  But an increase in oil inventories was not expected by the markets....and may lead to more downside pressure on oil prices in the coming month(s).
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1444 on: June 08, 2017, 02:54:03 PM »
For an explanation, try
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-07/crude-oil-s-biggest-tumble-since-march-shown-in-three-charts

The Bloomberg one month WTI chart below shows why short-term movements in oil prices not a good guide to the long-term. The oil states and oil markets are too unstable.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1445 on: June 08, 2017, 03:24:04 PM »
The slow move south in oil prices towards $40 or below continues.....and the US frackers are providing little upside for the price of oil.

Not good news for Russia or Saudi Arabia.....that is for sure.


I think you've got something backwards.  US fracking oil doesn't provide an "upside".  It serves to set the price ceiling.  If the price of oil rises enough then rigs head into the oil fields and bring enough medium priced oil to the market to saturate demand.  No one who has more expensive to produce oil gets an opportunity to sell.

Unless there is a huge supply disruption (say, war between two major oil producers) we might never see oil rise above $50/barrel again.

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1446 on: June 08, 2017, 03:41:27 PM »
No.....I said exactly what I meant to say.  In fact....I intentionally UNDERSTATED it.  US frackers not only provide "little upside"....they provide no upside, and indeed provide downside.  It's called scarcasm..". ;)
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1447 on: June 12, 2017, 02:56:25 PM »
Bloomberg shows West Texas Intermediate has been under $50 for a while:
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1448 on: June 14, 2017, 09:20:15 PM »
Oil below $45 with a lack of drawdown in stocks and increasing supply. The economic data out of the US points to continuing slow growth, if not possible contraction, which will not be good for oil demand. With the Fed continuing to hike interest rates and planning to remove liquidity, not a good outlook going forward.

US Retail Sales Fall In May

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-14/retail-sales-tumble-most-january-2016-gasoline-electronics-prices-slump


Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1449 on: June 15, 2017, 12:36:21 PM »
Just what Russia needs right now.....lower oil prices AND more sanctions.  Merry Christmas Vladimir...
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