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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1450 on: June 15, 2017, 09:43:24 PM »
The Standing Rock Sioux Claim ‘Victory and Vindication’ in Court
A federal judge rules that the Dakota Access pipeline did not receive an adequate environmental vetting.
Quote
A federal judge ruled in favor of the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe on Wednesday, handing the tribe its first legal victory in its year-long battle against the Dakota Access pipeline.

James Boasberg, who sits on D.C. district court, said that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers failed to perform an adequate study of the pipeline’s environmental consequences when it first approved its construction. In a 91-page decision, the judge cited the Corps’ study of “the impacts of an oil spill on fishing rights, hunting rights, or environmental justice” as particularly deficient, and he ordered it to prepare a new report on its risks.

The court did not, however, order the pipeline to be shut off until a new environmental study is completed—a common remedy when a federal permit is found lacking. Instead, Boasberg asked attorneys to appear before him again and make a new set of arguments about whether the pipeline should operate.
...
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/06/dakota-access-standing-rock-sioux-victory-court/530427/
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rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1451 on: June 15, 2017, 10:05:39 PM »
Oil From OPEC's Rivals to Exceed Demand Growth in 2018

The news seems to be going from bad to worse for OPEC and their attempt to keep prices up. If GDP growth isn't as expected, possible with the US raising interest rates into a soft economy, things will get really bad.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-14/oil-from-opec-s-rivals-to-exceed-demand-growth-in-2018-iea-says

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1452 on: June 16, 2017, 07:05:40 PM »
Bloomberg reports:
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1453 on: June 20, 2017, 05:00:19 PM »
US crude oil enters bear market after tumbling 3% below $43 a barrel
• Oil prices are trading below $43 a barrel, striking the lowest levels since mid-November.
• The fresh leg lower came on signs of rising output from Nigeria and Libya, two OPEC members exempt from cutting supply.
• Oil prices will likely dip below $40 a barrel, said Again Capital's John Kilduff.
Quote
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures were down $1.21, or 3 percent, at $42.85 on Tuesday morning. The U.S. benchmark fell to the weakest intraday prices since Nov. 14, when the contract hit $42.20 a barrel.

WTI is now down more than 22 percent from its 52-week intraday high of 55.24 struck on Jan. 3, putting the commodity in bear market territory....
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/20/oil-prices-are-tumbling-more-than-2-percent-toward-43-a-barrel-right-now.html
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1454 on: June 22, 2017, 12:49:14 PM »
Tick....tick.....tick....  Oil getting ready to head further south.  Could we see oil push to the low 30's?  Certainly possible....

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1455 on: June 22, 2017, 09:46:21 PM »
Oil Nears $40: Will US Drillers Halt Production Growth?
Quote
Crude is spiraling down again, this time it is close to $40-per-barrel psychological mark. In fact, Paul Ciana – a technical strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch – recently said that "Oil is in a downtrend and risks trending into the $30's”.I

n the wake of such a scenario where markets are expecting oil exploration and production businesses to run into losses, U.S. shale players have been flocking to crude resources. Crude has lost over 20% on a year-to-date basis but that hasn’t stopped U.S. drillers from pumping out more oil, adding to the woes of an oversupplied market.
...
It is to be noted that analysts at UBS Group AG in Zurich predict that most of the shale drillers in the U.S. will suffer at $45-per-barrel oil. If crude touches $40, there will unlikely be any rise in production for all the exploration and production companies in all the U.S. prolific oil plays. Even the Permian Basin, where cost of production is low and infrastructure is readily available, will see a halt in production growth when oil tanks to $40....
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/265275/oil-nears-40-will-us-drillers-halt-production-growth
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1456 on: June 27, 2017, 09:20:42 PM »
Oil prices may have finally hit bottom now that bullish hedge funds have thrown in the towel
Quote
Speculative bets that U.S. crude prices will rise surged earlier this year, creating a crowded trade that was eventually undercut by higher-than-expected output growth from U.S. oil fields and a slower-than-anticipated drop in global stockpiles. ...
...
Hedge funds and other money managers have cut their long positions, or bets that crude prices will rise, to the lowest level since November, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission covering the week through June 20. At the same time, short positions, or bets that prices will fall, have risen toward record highs.
...
The current number of short positions is unsustainable, and traders will eventually have to cover those positions, which should push up oil prices, said Tamar Essner, director of energy and utilities at Nasdaq Corporate Solutions.

"We are not yet at the highest level of short positions on record, but nearing it, which means we could start to move higher in the back half of the year," she told CNBC.

Benchmark oil prices rose more than 2 percent Tuesday as traders covered short positions.
...
The potential gains from shorting oil looked good when it was trading above $50, but consensus is forming around the notion that oil prices will bottom out in the upper $30 range, Kilduff said. With oil trading around $44 a barrel, potential rewards are getting slimmer, while a geopolitical shock that sends oil significantly higher would make a new short position costly.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/27/oil-prices-may-have-finally-hit-bottom-as-hedge-funds-thrown-in-towel.html

Image: U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (year to date), source: Factset
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rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1457 on: June 27, 2017, 11:11:00 PM »
Oil prices fall as sources say API data show an unexpected rise in U.S. crude supply

"The American Petroleum Institute reported Tuesday a climb of 851,000 barrels in U.S. crude supplies for the week ended June 23, according to sources. The market was generally expecting a decline in weekly crude inventories as Tropical Storm Cindy disrupted production in the Gulf of Mexico last week. The API data also showed a rise of 1.4 million barrels in gasoline supplies, while inventories of distillates were up 678,000 barrels, sources said. Supply data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday morning. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts expect the EIA to report a decline of 3.25 million barrels in crude inventories. August crude CLQ7, +0.78% was at $43.76 a barrel in electronic trading, down from the contract’s settlement of $44.24 on the New York Mercantile Exchange."

Next for the EIA data, if it shows anything like the same the rally could be over for now.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-fall-as-sources-say-api-data-show-an-unexpected-rise-in-us-crude-supply-2017-06-27

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1458 on: June 28, 2017, 02:45:58 PM »
From the Paris Agreement thread: the French government says “no new exploration licences for hydrocarbons”.

Macron meets Schwarzenegger and vows to stop oil and gas licences
Quote
The new French government has sought to further burnish its green credentials with the announcement it is to stop granting licences for new oil and gas exploration.

In his first major intervention since Emmanuel Macron’s election victory, the ecological transition minister, Nicolas Hulot, told the broadcaster BFMTV there would be “no new exploration licences for hydrocarbons”.

Hulot said the government would extend Macron’s promised moratorium on fracking projects to cover all oil and gas exploration. He also hinted that the government would increase taxes on diesel and look to streamline decision-making on environmental issues so they could be made “faster”.
...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/26/macron-meets-schwarzenegger-vows-stop-oil-gas-licences
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1459 on: July 01, 2017, 06:51:13 PM »
Gasoline price for regular in Atlanta is down to $2.04 a gallon today.  That's a 4 cent drop over a week.  I expect to see gasoline under $2.  The lowest "inflation adjusted" gasoline over the past 40 years in the US was in 1998 when it was about $1.50.  A drop of 25%....and we would be there.  I'm not calling for that now....but within 5 years we could indeed see that again.

Every day...I see more and more electrification of the entire transportation industry taking place at a faster and faster pace.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1460 on: July 01, 2017, 08:52:03 PM »
Gasoline price for regular in Atlanta is down to $2.04 a gallon today.  That's a 4 cent drop over a week.  I expect to see gasoline under $2.  The lowest "inflation adjusted" gasoline over the past 40 years in the US was in 1998 when it was about $1.50.  A drop of 25%....and we would be there.  I'm not calling for that now....but within 5 years we could indeed see that again.

Every day...I see more and more electrification of the entire transportation industry taking place at a faster and faster pace.

I suspect we'll see gas below $1.50/gallon a few years from now as EVs take away a lot of demand.  We might see the price held up above $1/gallon by taxes as a way to keep ICEVs non-competitive with EVs in operating costs. 
 

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1461 on: July 01, 2017, 10:16:12 PM »
We do need a way to make EV's pay their fair share for road use. No one likes tolls, but perhaps GPS tracking could be used to compute a flexible licencing fee based on road usage?

ghoti

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1462 on: July 01, 2017, 10:47:19 PM »
We do need a way to make EV's pay their fair share for road use. No one likes tolls, but perhaps GPS tracking could be used to compute a flexible licencing fee based on road usage?
It is already being done based on annual mileage in some places.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1463 on: July 02, 2017, 01:17:49 AM »
Many U.S. states are charging disproportionate EV fees in their attempt at "equality."

Yearly “EV fees” to replace lost gas tax revenue are less reasonable than they seem; Indiana the latest to scapegoat EVs
Quote
...Since average electricity prices in Indiana are 10.53¢/kWh, the average i3 driver can expect to spend $331 on electricity for their car annually (not counting cheaper off-peak electricity pricing which many EVs can take advantage of).  This means that a $150 fee represents a tax of 45.3% on the energy cost of fueling the vehicle.  Conversely, at a current average gas price of $2.35/gallon, Indiana’s 28 cent gas tax would represent only an 11.9% tax – which means the i3 is paying 3.8x as much tax as a gas vehicle, by this measurement.  No matter which way you look at it, this is a disproportionately high tax, seemingly designed to punish the EV.
...
https://electrek.co/2017/01/17/yearly-ev-fees-to-replace-lost-gas-tax-revenue-are-less-reasonable-than-they-seem-indiana-the-latest-to-scapegoat-evs/


State fees, penalties on electric cars proliferate this year
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1108973_state-fees-penalties-on-electric-cars-proliferate-this-year
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sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1464 on: July 02, 2017, 03:35:28 AM »
"We do need a way to make EV's pay their fair share for road use. "

Wait, what ? Road wear goes as fourth power of axle load. Make the truckers pay hugely more than they do. You can pretty much exempt the cars.

Freight trucks are getting a free ride. I say this as someone who moves buncha tonnage.

sidd

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1465 on: July 02, 2017, 06:35:04 AM »
Good point sidd. I was at a presentation on the impact on fracking on local communities and the biggest cost tended to be the roads destroyed by the thousands of truck journeys needed for each well. The impact of a truck is factors of 10 greater than a car on the road. The truckers are being subsidized by the car drivers and the general tax payer.

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1466 on: July 02, 2017, 07:47:35 AM »
sidd
I know nothing about the relative costs of road maintenance, but surely there are fixed costs that are little affected by usage. Bridges wash out or are damaged by floods or earthquakes (or most recently by mudslides). Roadways need to be plowed in the winter and policed all year.
Even if freight isn't presently paying it's fair share, transitioning to EV's without them paying anything won't alleviate that problem. IIRC trucks are usually charged by the mile for instate road usage so EV trucks won't be make a difference, but gas taxes in many states do bring in a lot of money. and that will need to be replaced.
Terry

etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1467 on: July 02, 2017, 03:07:29 PM »
Hello,
Taxes on EV are a complicated story.
- cost are still higher, so there is no way for a fast development for EV with similar taxes per km.
- electricity is available almost everywhere and is easy to transform, so cheating could be quite easy but could create fire hazards.
- car batteries could be used for network balancing, as power for different appliances when on the road (laptop, refrigerator, coffee machine...), and even as UPS when at home. So loading electricity in the battery doesn’t mean that it will be used on the road.
- cheating on kilometers is quite easy

And, if Sidd is right, availability of the road costs more than its use by the cars.  So I guess I would make a low km tax (making cheating not so interesting) and another tax that is proportional to the « luxury level » of the car. You can’t ask the same amount of taxes for a Nissan Leaf and for a Tesla. The problem of a high fixed cost and a low variable cost is that extra km are cheap, so there is no reason not to do them.

Maybe we should create a new topic if this discussion is to be continued.
Best regards,

Etienne

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1468 on: July 02, 2017, 05:18:05 PM »
Off-topic comment. Wear and tear of the road surface is proportional to the cube of the axle load.
An island in the pacific banned all trucks with gross laden weight greater than 3.5 tonnes.
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Theta

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1469 on: July 02, 2017, 05:38:16 PM »
Thought I'd put this here because of its relevance to energy. According to Gail Tverberg, we're due an economic collapse in the next few months. This could have a major effect on oil consumption and may stop all oil from being consumed altogether.

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2017/07/02/the-next-financial-crisis-is-not-far-away/
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1470 on: July 02, 2017, 05:49:27 PM »
Off-topic comment. Wear and tear of the road surface is proportional to the cube of the axle load.
An island in the pacific banned all trucks with gross laden weight greater than 3.5 tonnes.

I don't see it as offtopic.  Wear and tear of road surface is worse with heavier vehicles.  Heavier vehicles should pay more per mile of use. 

In the US heavy trucks are undercharged for their road use.  People who drive cars and light trucks pay more than then should. 

Heavier cars were somewhat charged for their weight in that there is a rough relationship between car/pickup/van weight and fuel use.  Fuel taxes are set 'per gallon'.  Use more, pay more.

We're (almost certainly) moving away from fuel and using fuel sales to collect road taxes.  What makes sense to me is to charge vehicles per mile.  Make it part of the annual license renewal. (If necessary let people spread the payments over 12 months.)

Work out road maintenance costs based on costs which are not impacted by miles weight.  Bridges rust.  Split those types of costs over all vehicles based on miles driven.

Work out road maintenance costs based on costs which are impacted by vehicle weight.  Roads with lots of large truck use have to be more frequently resurfaced.  Include a 'weight multiplier' to the milage fee.  The lightest vehicles would have a multiplier of 1.  Large trucks a larger number.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1471 on: July 02, 2017, 06:06:56 PM »
Thought I'd put this here because of its relevance to energy. According to Gail Tverberg, we're due an economic collapse in the next few months. This could have a major effect on oil consumption and may stop all oil from being consumed altogether.

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2017/07/02/the-next-financial-crisis-is-not-far-away/

Tverberg is someone in whom I put zero faith.  That's based on reading her stuff over many years.

We're probably not too far from a recession in the US, our current expansion has been underway for a very long time.  But we don't seem to have created 'bubbles' such as wildly overpriced housing or tech stock.  The Fed seems to be doing a good job of monitoring inflation. 

But at some point business will probably realize that the US will not continue to do as well under Trump as we did under Obama.  When that happens we'll drop into a (likely mild) recession.  It's not likely we'll see large job losses, just slower job creation and slower wage growth.  Fuel prices should continue to be low.  I don't see much potential for large decreases in fuel use.

Best to ignore Gail.  Even in the massive Bush recession we didn't stop using oil.  Use in 2009 was about 9% lower than in 2007 (the recession hit late in 2008).


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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1472 on: July 02, 2017, 09:34:30 PM »
I've come to the same conclusion, Bob.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1473 on: July 03, 2017, 12:05:55 AM »
Interesting perspective. I would have thought that given the amount of crises that Gail describes, it is likely that economic downfall (quite rapid) would lead to a complete loss of oil production.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1474 on: July 03, 2017, 12:38:25 AM »
Interesting perspective. I would have thought that given the amount of crises that Gail describes, it is likely that economic downfall (quite rapid) would lead to a complete loss of oil production.

Let's take a closer look at her 'stuff'.

First she talks about individual countries going through a rough time.  Yes, the Soviet Union did break apart but the world did not collapse.  The world also did not collapse when Venezuela couldn't sell its oil and went very sour.

A few years back China separated fossil fuel use and economic growth.  China is installing a lot of low carbon generation and moving to a service economy which does not require as much energy.  That has not and will not cause the world to collapse.  China continues to grow its economy while using less and less fossil fuel.

"Wind and solar are assumed to replace only the fuel that creates high quality electricity. The amount of backup generating capacity required is virtually unchanged."

So what?  We install a lot of wind and solar.  Burn less fossil fuel.  Worst case, a country that doesn't have FF to turn off can install hydro, storage, CCNG, or biofuel fill-in.  Any new additions to a grid have to be backed up if there isn't already more backup capacity than the grid needs.  At this point the US is burning about 6% less coal and natural gas than it did in 2010 in order to generate the same amount of electricity. 

"More long distance transmission is needed."

Well, yes.  Part of creating the least cost grid is to harvest RE over a larger area.  Or install locally along with adequate storage.  When transmission is the least expensive option we'll install transmission.

"Shrinking coal consumption is bringing down world energy consumption"

Exactly as one would expect.  About 60% of the energy we get from coal is wasted.  We blow it out the smokestack and out the cooling vents for the steam plant.  If we replace a MWh of coal electricity we need only install 0.4 MWh of wind or solar electricity.

It even gets better with oil.  Internal combustion engine cars waste about 80% of the energy in each gallon of fuel we pump in.  EVs waste about 10% of the electricity we use to operate them when we charge the batteries and another 10% driving the car.  We'll have to replace only 20% of the energy we now get from oil.  As we move to EVs we'll see a huge decrease in world energy consumption.

Gail is correct when she talks about oil producing countries being in for a rough stretch as oil consumption (likely) rapidly falls.  Look at Venezuela.  Some countries will not have prepared to lose a major part of their income.  Others are preparing. 

I will not be surprised to see some Middle Eastern country governments fall.  (Of course things are pretty bad there now.)  But at the same time the economies of other countries will get a huge boost as hundreds of thousands of jobs are created in RE industries and countries no longer ship hundreds of billions of dollars to other countries in exchange for fossil fuel.

Not to mention the hundreds of billions of dollars in health care and lost labor that will be saved.

Gail is a long term doomer.  For years she predicted an end to affordable oil and an end of civilization as we know it.  When it became clear that there is a lot more oil (we discovered shale oil) she found a new basis for predicting collapse.  She seems to be blind to potential solutions.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1475 on: July 03, 2017, 02:26:43 AM »
After $3 billion spent, Keystone XL can't get oil companies to sign on
Quote
Keystone XL is facing a new challenge: The oil producers and refiners the pipeline was originally meant to serve aren't interested in it anymore.

Delayed for nearly a decade by protests and regulatory roadblocks, Keystone XL got the green light from President Donald Trump in March. But the pipeline's operator, TransCanada Corp., is struggling to line up customers to ship crude from Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast, say people familiar with the matter.
Quote
But much has changed in the oil markets since TransCanada first filed an application with the State Department in 2008 for a cross-border permit.

Back then, the price of oil had surpassed $130 a barrel, producers were rushing to pump as much as possible and refiners were itching to secure steady supplies. Today, oil is trading around $45 amid a global supply glut caused in part by the emergence of American shale drillers.

Refiners want the flexibility of being able to buy oil from wherever it is cheapest. In a world awash in low-price oil, Canadian crude doesn't look as attractive as it once did. Many refiners thus far are unwilling to commit to long-term deals for Canadian crude, say people familiar with the matter.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/06/29/after-3-billion-spent-keystone-xl-cant-get-oil-companies-to-sign-on.html
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1476 on: July 03, 2017, 02:28:33 AM »
According to Tverberg's theory, Iqaluit has the most thriving economy in Canada. Indeed, I'm helping it thrive more by opening the window while the apartment heat is on (we don't control the heater).

My best attempt at being fair notes that energy use is indeed a proxy for economic growth. But like any proxy, it's imperfect. Efficiency gains through technology or business process improvements change the relation between energy use and economic activity. That's clearly what we're seeing in China: it takes lots of energy to make glass, steel, and chips. It takes much less to glue then all together into an iPhone. When your economy takes on higher levels in the supply chain, you'll get a lot more economic activity per unit of energy.

As for the analysis that the crisis in Greece and Spain was caused by high energy prices, that's a new one. It's not connected to the facts: Spain is not principally a tourist economy, and even as energy prices climbed, tourism climbed as well. The "analysis" ignores the whole global economic crisis that happened then, fueled by changes in business process in the preceding years (banking deregulation).

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1477 on: July 03, 2017, 02:42:08 AM »
Speaking of tar sands pipelines, the government of BC fell this past week. The outgoing provincial Liberal government was in favor of every energy project. The incoming NDP/Green government opposes the Kinder-Morgan pipeline. That'll slow down its development. The usual suspects declare the delay to be simultaneously an economic disaster and completely irrelevant in the grand scheme because the pipeline is inevitable.

It also wants to "review" the environmentally devastating Site C hydro project -- the NDP favors that one (jobs jobs jobs) while the Greens oppose it (salmon and First Nations and farmers).

The new Premier, John Horgan, is my inlaws' MLA. From meetings in the riding, they've surmised he seems to personally hate the Green Party head, Andrew Weaver. The coalition hold 44 seats out of 87 in the legislature. It'll be interesting to see what happens...

But as with KXL, even *if* the government were in favour, it might not get built.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1478 on: July 03, 2017, 02:58:11 AM »
Anyone advocating for new pipelines to carry Canadian crude should be required to put a significant portion of their net worth at risk if the pipe is built.

Barring a very significant event in the Middle East it's hard to see what could cause the price of oil to rise over ~$50, the point where rigs head back into US shale oil country. 

OPEC seems unable to control production enough to jack up the price of oil to reach $50.  And I can't see OPEC getting the US to sign on an take the price up to Canadian levels.

At this point I think what will happen is that the <$30/barrel producers will pump as much as they can in order to grab as much cash as they can.  They'll take that money and invest it for future income to replace their lost oil income (or at least some of it). 

If those of us most optimistic about EVs are right we're about five years away from the beginning of a rapid downturn in oil demand.  Now's the time to move as much merchandise as possible before demand goes down and today's prices can't be held.

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1479 on: July 03, 2017, 03:21:37 PM »
The owners of crude oil in the ground are getting more and more clarity as to what the transportation world will look like in the future....and it continues to move away from them at an accelerating pace. 

Oil for transportation is going the way of the dodo bird.  EV's continue to chip away at the fringes of oil demand....and slowly those "chips" are getting larger.  And the price of oil is set at the margin.





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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1480 on: July 03, 2017, 05:55:24 PM »
The end is nigh.

The CBC's Kyle Bakx and sidekick Tracy Johnson just wrote about environmental policies.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/alberta-carbon-plans-difficult-to-unwind-1.4184699

Still almost no mention of environmental consequences of fossil fuel extraction ("methane gases more potent than other emissions" is the only mention in the entire article -- and it doesn't even mention what "potent" means!). They're really quite remarkable writers in that way.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1481 on: July 03, 2017, 08:28:46 PM »
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is slowly coming out of it hole.  (Of course, it might see its shadow and go back down for six more weeks.)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1482 on: July 04, 2017, 03:22:43 AM »
Court rejects EPA's attempt to halt Obama-era methane rule
Quote
The Environmental Protection Agency cannot freeze the implementation of a rule requiring oil and gas companies to fix methane leaks in their equipment, a federal appeals court ruled on Monday in a setback for Donald Trump’s push to cut environmental regulations....
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/03/epa-methane-rule-trump-scott-pruitt
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1483 on: July 04, 2017, 09:34:09 PM »
Qatar announces huge rise in gas production amid diplomatic crisis
• Qatar Petroleum plans to boost gas production from its giant North Field, which it shares with Iran, despite diplomatic tensions between the Gulf Arab state and its neighbors.
• Qatar in April lifted a self-imposed ban on development of the North Field, the world's biggest natural gas field.
• That new project will raise Qatar's total liquefied natural gas production capacity by 30 percent to 100 million tons per year.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/04/qatar-ratchets-up-gas-production-30-percent-despite-sanctions.html
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TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1484 on: July 05, 2017, 01:01:52 AM »
Qatar announces huge rise in gas production amid diplomatic crisis
• Qatar Petroleum plans to boost gas production from its giant North Field, which it shares with Iran, despite diplomatic tensions between the Gulf Arab state and its neighbors.
• Qatar in April lifted a self-imposed ban on development of the North Field, the world's biggest natural gas field.
• That new project will raise Qatar's total liquefied natural gas production capacity by 30 percent to 100 million tons per year.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/04/qatar-ratchets-up-gas-production-30-percent-despite-sanctions.html
Just as the US begins exporting LNG. What a shame.
Terry

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1485 on: July 05, 2017, 04:51:53 PM »
Bloomberg: Oil Tumbles After Russia Said to Oppose Deeper Production Curbs
Quote
Crude oil fell, snapping the longest winning streak this year, as Russia was said to oppose any proposal to deepen OPEC-led production cuts.

Futures dropped 1.3 percent in New York after eight straight sessions of gains.
...

[I guess it saw its shadow!]
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1486 on: July 05, 2017, 05:03:44 PM »
Too many sellers.....and not enough buyers in the mid $40's..... This may take severel/many months to wash the buyers out.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1487 on: July 05, 2017, 07:12:02 PM »
Bill McKibben:  By 97% majority, United Church of Christ instructs members to oppose all new fossil fuel infrastructure!  http://www.macucc.org/earthislords

https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/882314824591527936
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1488 on: July 06, 2017, 03:39:51 AM »
 Why Poland is stoked about President Trump's visit. And it's not about coal!  But it is about Russia -- and Trump will be meeting with Putin afterward....

Poland Sees Trump Visit Catalyst to Cut Russian Gas Reliance
Quote
Polish leaders are betting Donald Trump’s visit to Warsaw starting on Wednesday, two days before the U.S. president meets his Russian counterpart, will bolster their efforts to reduce the nation’s dependence on natural gas from its eastern neighbor.

Less than a month after Poland’s Baltic Sea terminal received its first shipment of U.S. liquefied natural gas, a spot cargo from Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana, authorities in Warsaw are mooting ambitious plans. The ideas range from a long-term gas deal with U.S. producers to infrastructure projects linking east European nations reliant on supplies from Moscow-based Gazprom PJSC....
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-04/poland-seeks-trump-visit-catalyst-to-cut-reliance-on-russian-gas
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1489 on: July 06, 2017, 04:08:18 AM »
Qatar might be poking a stick in Donnie's tricycle wheel...

Quote
Qatar Petroleum plans to boost gas production from its giant North Field, which it shares with Iran, by 20 percent after new gas development, QP's chief executive said on Tuesday, despite diplomatic tensions between the Gulf Arab state and its neighbors.

Qatar in April lifted a self-imposed ban on development of the North Field, the world's biggest natural gas field, and announced a new project to develop its southern section, increasing output in five to seven years.

That new project will raise Qatar's total liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity by 30 percent to 100 million tons from 77 million tons per year, Qatar Petroleum's CEO Saad al-Kaabi told a news conference in Doha.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/04/qatar-ratchets-up-gas-production-30-percent-despite-sanctions.html


Qatar is likely a lower cost producer and it's closer to the European market.  The US might get a short term contract but only short term

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1490 on: July 06, 2017, 04:11:37 AM »
Why Poland is stoked about President Trump's visit. And it's not about coal!  But it is about Russia -- and Trump will be meeting with Putin afterward....

Poland Sees Trump Visit Catalyst to Cut Russian Gas Reliance
Quote
Polish leaders are betting Donald Trump’s visit to Warsaw starting on Wednesday, two days before the U.S. president meets his Russian counterpart, will bolster their efforts to reduce the nation’s dependence on natural gas from its eastern neighbor.

Less than a month after Poland’s Baltic Sea terminal received its first shipment of U.S. liquefied natural gas, a spot cargo from Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana, authorities in Warsaw are mooting ambitious plans. The ideas range from a long-term gas deal with U.S. producers to infrastructure projects linking east European nations reliant on supplies from Moscow-based Gazprom PJSC....
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-04/poland-seeks-trump-visit-catalyst-to-cut-reliance-on-russian-gas


As long as Poland wishes to pay at least a 20% premium for LNG supplied, they are well within their rights. Trying to force the rest of Europe to also pay this premium may not go over quite as well.
My understanding is that they expected their neighbors to take much of the high priced gas off their hands, and were shocked when none of the neighbors opted for the much higher priced alternative they offered.
Cutting Nord Stream 2 doesn't increase Europe's energy options, it decreases them. Europe seems well aware of this as evidenced by her reaction to the American Senate's proposed sanctions bill.


Terry

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1491 on: July 06, 2017, 01:53:54 PM »
As long as Poland wishes to pay at least a 20% premium for LNG supplied, they are well within their rights. Trying to force the rest of Europe to also pay this premium may not go over quite as well.

Terry

Hello,
Where do you get that 20% from ? Poland has right now a not too democratic government, I don't know the details, but there are regularely massive protests.  In my former work, I had Polish partners and sometime when I called, people where on training and in the evening news, they talked of massive protests in the country. So it might be that the government takes decisions that are inefficient but politically correct.
Regards,
Etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1492 on: July 06, 2017, 02:36:23 PM »
As long as Poland wishes to pay at least a 20% premium for LNG supplied, they are well within their rights. Trying to force the rest of Europe to also pay this premium may not go over quite as well.

Terry

Hello,
Where do you get that 20% from ? Poland has right now a not too democratic government, I don't know the details, but there are regularely massive protests.  In my former work, I had Polish partners and sometime when I called, people where on training and in the evening news, they talked of massive protests in the country. So it might be that the government takes decisions that are inefficient but politically correct.
Regards,
Etienne
The article I'd replied to quoted $5.00 for NG and $5.9? for LNG. From other articles I'd determined that LNG typically uses at least 20% of the NG to refrigerate the gas as well as transportation costs and costs to regassify. I considered an addition of 20% to be a minimal cost difference between LNG and piped in NG.
The Polish government appears eager to pay a large premium for energy if they get to stick it to Russia, neighboring countries seem to prefer the less expensive Russian gas.
From what you say it seems as though the populace may not be entirely in agreement with the Polish government's position.


Terry

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1493 on: July 06, 2017, 07:54:41 PM »
Well, Poland and Russia have a long history of hate, a little bit like Germany and France used to have before the European integration (3 wars in 1870, 1914 and 1939, but before there was Napoleon and many others), but for Poland, the independence from USSR was in 1989, which is not very long ago. There is probably a part of the population that is ready to pay more for non Russian gas.

In Europe, many people see the sanctions against Russian NG as a way to support jobs in the US  more than a sanction against Russia. When tweets go in all directions, there is a big loss of credibility, this is also true with the Qatar issue which also produces LNG.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1494 on: July 06, 2017, 11:19:48 PM »
As someone who is unaffected in any way by the outcome, I feel that Poland is well within her rights to refuse the inexpensive Russian gas. I do think that her manufacturing will move to more business friendly countries where energy is cheap and reliable, that Polish coal fired generators will remain financially viable for longer, and that residential consumers will pay a price, before they follow their jobs to cleaner locals.


At some point most electricity will be generated by renewables, but in the interim Poland may only be able to meet it's Paris commitments through loss of GDP. Gas can't compare with wind or solar of course, but, properly handled it is the cleanest of the fossil fuels.


I don't think European's are far from the mark when they see future sales of American LNG as a driving force WRT Russian gas sanctions, although the recently announced expansion of Qatar's LNG may have put an end to those dreams. 


I understand that Poland has already spent considerable sums on the regasification facilities, and it seems unlikely that this will ever pay for itself. The business plan was that Poland would finance the regasification plant, then build pipelines to neighboring countries and turn a profit in providing piped gas to these countries. Unfortunately pricing quickly became an issue an the neighbors opted for the cheap, reliable, Russian gas that they were accustomed to. The plant hasn't been abandoned, but it's hugely underutilized, and will probably remain in limbo if Germany, France, Austria and the rest prevail.
Building such an expensive facility without contracts in place was a bold, perhaps foolish, undertaking. Europe appears to finally be taking a stand against further US interference in her energy markets & this doesn't bode well for the venture. LNG is not competitive with piped NG, and probably never will be. Also even if all other costs were equal, the much shorter sea routes from Qatar would still undercut American LNG in Europe.


It's going to be difficult for Poland to compete in the European market when they pay considerably more for energy than the competition does. If Poland can't kill Nord Stream 2, or opt into it themselves, they face a difficult future, and I'm not convinced that Washington gives a tinker's damn.


Terry

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1495 on: July 07, 2017, 07:13:58 AM »
Poland’s choice might also be not so good because NG is probably a declining business. All new houses are now built with heat pumps because high insulation makes heat pump the best choice regarding needed space and costs. For electricity production, on the European market, costs are too high (this is why Europe still has so much coal) excepted for heat/electricity combined production. It is mainly on the industrial level that there still is a future need for NG, but industry is not the main growing energy user right now. Decline should be much slower than for petrol because cars are replaced more often than heaters and industrial machines, but NG has the problem of an expensive infrastructure which means that new market are difficult to open.
The  new pipelines that are built like the north stream are more important for political reason, costs reduction and as infrastructure renewal than for new capacity.
If Europe bought NG from the Soviet Union, we will also buy it from Russia. Somehow it is a good thing because it makes cooperation a need, creates interdependence and reduces the risk of wars. A minimum of independence is needed to be able to negociate the price, but independence can also be achieved with renewable and other alternative energies.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1496 on: July 07, 2017, 07:55:29 PM »
Oil prices extend losses as Baker Hughes reports rise in U.S. oil-rig count

The US oil rig count, and oil production, still going in the wrong direction to help oil prices.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-extend-losses-as-baker-hughes-reports-rise-in-us-oil-rig-count-2017-07-07

U.S. Rig Count Must Drop 150 For Oil Markets To Balance

"If OPEC doesn’t balance the market, the oil price will have to force it somewhere else, most likely in U.S. shale. For a chance of a balanced market in 2018, the U.S. rig count can no longer grow and possibly needs to contract ~150 rigs"

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/US-Rig-Count-Must-Drop-150-For-Oil-Markets-To-Balance.html



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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1497 on: July 07, 2017, 11:35:03 PM »
My preference would be for the highest ff costs that world economies can bear.


High prices of coal, oil, and gas make renewables easier to implement, while depressed economies offer fewer opportunities for industrial expansion. In my perfect world we'd have plenty of cash to rebuild and repair, but little left over for new projects that gobble resources and pollute the environment.


I'd love to have high speed rail available, but there's a village not far from here that uses horse drawn buses to ferry tourists and locals about. Very quiet, and a shovel takes care of the intermittent pollution. If those were the only two options available I'm afraid I might just opt for the bus.


Could it be that Ned Ludd was right all those years ago?


Terry


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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1498 on: July 08, 2017, 03:18:45 AM »
Low low prices with very high carbon taxes are way better.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1499 on: July 10, 2017, 05:20:10 PM »
Near Lancaster, Pennsylvania:

Nuns to dedicate outdoor chapel built in the path of proposed pipeline
Quote
An open-air chapel set up by Catholic nuns to block construction of a natural gas pipeline in Pennsylvania will be dedicated Sunday on a spot directly in the pipeline's proposed path.

The ceremony, hosted by grass-roots opposition group Lancaster Against Pipelines, is called "Stand With the Sisters" and is in support of the Adorers of the Blood of Christ, a Catholic order of women in opposition to the pipeline.

The Adorers own the land that the Atlantic Sunrise pipeline would cross.

"It's not about money, it's about principle. And the nuns have a land ethic that says this Earth is a sanctuary and we regard it as sacred, and we're going to work to protect it," Mark Clatterbuck of the Lancaster Against Pipelines group told CNN affiliate WGAL-TV. ...
http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/08/us/nuns-protest-pipeline-trnd/index.html
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