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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1600 on: July 23, 2017, 06:50:28 PM »
I know it wasn't for the purpose of reducing future oil production (and I'm not an expert on the matter) but Alaska uses tax receipts from oil and gas production to give Alaskan citizens a 'direct' rebate.  I thought I read somewhere that these revenues are declining, and the dividend shrank, and that the state has functionally lost its cash cow, but my skimming this Wikipedia article suggests (by not mentioning it) this hasn't happened. 

What I've learned from this Alaskan experiment (remember, I'm not an expert!) is that once there is an income source for people, they are loathe for it to disappear.  What happens after 10 or 20 years of luxury tax (i.e., tax on CO2) and dividend to citizens when it all but disappears because almost no one pumps oil and gas any more? (I know: survival, but "I want my free lunch back.")
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1601 on: July 23, 2017, 07:35:59 PM »
U.S.:

Rover Gas Pipeline Builder Faces Investigation by Federal Regulators
Energy Transfer Partners has been accused of destroying a historic home after promising “no adverse effects” and fouling farm fields and wetlands in Ohio.
Quote
Federal regulators will investigate Energy Transfer Partners, the company behind the controversial Dakota Access pipeline in North Dakota, for alleged violations associated with its $4.2 billion Rover natural gas pipeline in Ohio.

The investigation comes as the number of violations and fines against the company over the Rover project continue to grow.
...
"Generally, when the agency is dealing with a company and there are violations and proposed orders, the company will respond in writing and show some degree of contrition and make some sort of a counter offer or alternate proposal," Lee said. "In three rounds of proposed administrative orders, Rover would not do that." 
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19072017/rover-gas-pipeline-ferc-investigation-historic-home-demolished-ohio-farm-fields-wetlands
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1602 on: July 23, 2017, 07:37:48 PM »
Quote
Most people in the country have cars because they need to get to shops, work and entertainment. In general they have large carbon footprints unless they are isolated and poor.

You're assuming that country people drive more than city/suburban people do.  I haven't found any data on that but based on where I live country people drive less.  We tend to schedule our drive days and many of us leave home only one to four times a month. 

We tend to heat with wood rather than using FF generated electricity, oil or propane for heating.  We, I think, consume less.  Most have gardens, many orchards.  Some raise their own meat and don't used trucked in feed.

People living in the country are much more likely to work from home (or be retired) and don't do the daily commute or run out for a pizza type stuff.

Quote
a car driven lifestyle cannot fit within our remaining carbon budget

Let me fix that for you.  A fossil fuel fueled car driven lifestyle cannot fit within our remaining carbon budget.

Quote
And gas may be as bad as coal

Only if you-

1) Assume leaks will not be contained.  (Most NG leakage is residential/commercial distribution.  Not gas wells and shipment to power plants.)

2) Overlook the methane release by coal mining and processing. 

A study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimated that surface mined coal releases 1.91 grams of methane per kilogram and underground mined coal releases 4.23 grams of methane per kilogram.

Pamela L. Spath et al, "Life Cycle Analysis of Coal-Fired Power Production," National Renewable Energy Laboratory, June 1999

3) Assume a 1:1 replacement of coal with NG.  What is happening, since NG is highly dispatchable, is that when solar and wind are available NG plants shut down.  We're working our way toward a (guessing numbers here) 40% solar, 40% wind and 20% NG grid.  Except that wind/solar + storage is starting to eat into the 20% NG.


Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1603 on: July 23, 2017, 07:43:47 PM »
I know it wasn't for the purpose of reducing future oil production (and I'm not an expert on the matter) but Alaska uses tax receipts from oil and gas production to give Alaskan citizens a 'direct' rebate.  I thought I read somewhere that these revenues are declining, and the dividend shrank, and that the state has functionally lost its cash cow, but my skimming this Wikipedia article suggests (by not mentioning it) this hasn't happened. 

What I've learned from this Alaskan experiment (remember, I'm not an expert!) is that once there is an income source for people, they are loathe for it to disappear.  What happens after 10 or 20 years of luxury tax (i.e., tax on CO2) and dividend to citizens when it all but disappears because almost no one pumps oil and gas any more? (I know: survival, but "I want my free lunch back.")

The Alaska Permanent Fund generally runs between $1,000 and $2,000 per year.  As oil use declines so will the Permanent Fund payout.  People will bitch but they probably won't be willing to tax the rich heavily enough to keep the money flowing.

GeoffBeacon

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1604 on: July 23, 2017, 09:04:46 PM »
Bob Wallace

Quote
A fossil fuel fueled car driven lifestyle cannot fit within our remaining carbon budget.

Sadly Bob. Neither can an Electric Car. See A roadmap to climate friendly cars and perhaps  even The carbon cost of achieving low carbon lifestyles:
Quote
a report by Climate Central, Roadmap to Climate-Friendly Cars: 2013, gives carbon emissions from the manufacture of an electric car as 12.3 tonnes CO2e. Two new electric cars to be bought before 2050. That’s embodied carbon equal to 25 tonnes CO2e. (Note: the embodied carbon in s gasoline car is given as 7.4 tonnes CO2e.)

That's just embodied carbon.  How long before EVs will run on zero carbon electricity? In the long run, they might but it's here and now that the emissions are piling up, eating into our remaining carbon budget.

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wili

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1605 on: July 23, 2017, 09:12:07 PM »
oren asked:

"Is anyone here against a carbon tax, with or without dividend? "

I am not exactly against it...it would have been a great way to discourage carbon use starting forty or more years ago. But it seems to me that we now are way beyond that stage.

If, during the bombing of London in WWII, the Brits found out that the bombs being dropped on them were being produced by a British company, do you their strategy for dealing with that would be a carefully constructed tax to gently discourage the company from making quite so many bombs?

We are in the midst of GW war, and we are losing. People are dying.

We need to stop making the 'bombs' as quickly as possible. Direct rationing with rapidly lowering levels of acceptable use, is the only way to get there, as far as I can see. Not that this is what is remotely ever going to happen. But we should be clear about where we actually are and what is actually needed.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1606 on: July 23, 2017, 09:25:15 PM »
Bob Wallace

Quote
A fossil fuel fueled car driven lifestyle cannot fit within our remaining carbon budget.

Sadly Bob. Neither can an Electric Car. See A roadmap to climate friendly cars and perhaps  even The carbon cost of achieving low carbon lifestyles:
Quote
a report by Climate Central, Roadmap to Climate-Friendly Cars: 2013, gives carbon emissions from the manufacture of an electric car as 12.3 tonnes CO2e. Two new electric cars to be bought before 2050. That’s embodied carbon equal to 25 tonnes CO2e. (Note: the embodied carbon in s gasoline car is given as 7.4 tonnes CO2e.)

That's just embodied carbon.  How long before EVs will run on zero carbon electricity? In the long run, they might but it's here and now that the emissions are piling up, eating into our remaining carbon budget.

Embedded carbon in EVs is a misleading statistic.  It is mainly caused by carbon intensive grid electricity and materials transportation.  We can build EVs with 100% RE electricity and mine, process, and transport materials with RE electricity.

EVs can run on 100% carbon free electricity.  Some do now.

The issue is not EVs but how quickly we can rid our grids of fossil fuels.

We're in a transition, Geoff, what we did wrong yesterday and are still doing today does not determine what we have the ability to do in the future.  It's the early days of the transition.  One has to look at what we've managed to do so far and look at how the barriers to increased acceleration are falling.

You think we can solve the problem by implementing a large carbon tax? 

Fine.  Now solve the problem of implementing a large carbon tax.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1607 on: July 23, 2017, 09:33:35 PM »
Quote
Direct rationing with rapidly lowering levels of acceptable use, is the only way to get there, as far as I can see. Not that this is what is remotely ever going to happen. But we should be clear about where we actually are and what is actually needed.

Solutions which can't be reasonably implemented are not solutions. 

We can't force a huge carbon tax on the public.  We can't implement fossil fuel rationing.  We can't force people to quit driving and flying.  We can't kill off two thirds of the human race.

We've moved past the era of monarchs and dictators (for the large part).  Governments that tried to implement harsh measures would in almost all cases fall.  Disrupt people's lifestyles too much and they will revolt, either at the ballot box or they'll take to the streets.


rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1608 on: July 24, 2017, 03:37:06 AM »
Think how much people's lives were disrupted in WW2, my grandfather's business actually had to close because of those changes. If the leadership properly identifies the threat, and gets the people on their side through propaganda etc., people will change their lifestyles.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1609 on: July 24, 2017, 03:42:08 AM »
Think how much people's lives were disrupted in WW2, my grandfather's business actually had to close because of those changes. If the leadership properly identifies the threat, and gets the people on their side through propaganda etc., people will change their lifestyles.

People accepted WWII rationing because the threat was immediate.  We had Japan closing on one side and Germany on the other.

By the time people are concerned enough about climate change it will likely be much too late to restrict warming to 2C.

Lots of us spend time in bubbles like this one where we interact with some of the most concerned people.  Go to your local shopping center, bar, park, other public space and sample the general public's level of concern.

wili

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1610 on: July 24, 2017, 06:40:12 AM »
Bob said: "We can't ...  We can't ...  We can't ...  We can't ..."

Wow. What's with all the negative vibes, man? I thought you were trying to be the optimist in the group!  :D :D

« Last Edit: July 24, 2017, 07:27:53 AM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1611 on: July 24, 2017, 07:28:11 AM »
Some times you just need to change the name of the tax to make it more acceptable. We could call it clean air tax, or oil independence tax, or energy security tax... Luxembourg created a "future fund" to put manage funds for kids.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1612 on: July 24, 2017, 07:59:18 AM »
Foremost, wili, I try to be a realist.

How about giving us a list of all countries which have been able to put a heavy price on carbon and drive their fossil fuel use to zero.

Then a list of all countries which have rationed fossil fuels to the point that their CO2 emissions are now acceptable.

And a list of all countries which have successfully outlawed using cars and airplanes.

While you can list a few countries that have successfully killed off large portions of their own populations I like to see you list the ones who have used that approach to meet the Paris Accords.

You might have a better chance of listing the countries that have eliminated their carbon emissions by issuing their citizens magic flying carpets....

oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1613 on: July 24, 2017, 10:49:20 AM »
As a side note, in Israel there is a very high tax on gasoline, which sells at the pump for $1.5 per litre (is that 4xUS price?). Similar for diesel. Supposedly to pay for transport investments and for pollution.
Many grumble and use cars. Many others use e-bikes and scooters, but the main reasons are congestion and parking. The country's emissions are not particularly low.
Obviously, a "war effort" and a major shift of the government budgets could cut emissions by half. But nobody in goverment gives a hoot, and most voters don't seem to care either. At least here, only an economically-driven transition could work. It's not sufficient, but it's better  than nothing.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1614 on: July 24, 2017, 05:15:13 PM »
Quote
only an economically-driven transition could work. It's not sufficient, but it's better  than nothing.

Why would an economically driven transition not  be sufficient?

etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1615 on: July 24, 2017, 05:54:05 PM »
Quote
only an economically-driven transition could work. It's not sufficient, but it's better  than nothing.

Why would an economically driven transition not  be sufficient?

Because you need people to try the technology, the way of living... before it is economically ok.

For example batteries  with inverter are total nonsense in Luxembourg because the network is almost all the time ok and batteries still cost quite a lot right now and dont have 100% efficiency, but we need people to try it, to do demand response even if we still have the needed peak electrical capacity. This is called a technological developpment, and this is why it is not good for the US economy if RE and storage don't get any state support anymore.


oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1616 on: July 24, 2017, 06:01:09 PM »
Quote
only an economically-driven transition could work. It's not sufficient, but it's better  than nothing.

Why would an economically driven transition not  be sufficient?
In my view it will not happen globally fast enough and thoroughly enough to avoid most of the effects of AGW. Time will tell of course. I'm still happy that it's happening though. Humanity should and could have been doing much more, a "war effort" to avert the risk, but sadly that's not happening, so economically-driven transition is currently the only practicable way forward.

etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1617 on: July 24, 2017, 06:02:28 PM »
Just a little memory of the past. When I was still studying, probably 1993 or 1994, the city of Lausanne (Switzerland) had a green politician who was able to get the city to buy an electrical vehicle. Well, batteries overheated and burned the hangar where it was being loaded.
It costed a lot to buy the vehicle and it was only available for a short time, but we are now lucky that such people were ready at that time to push the technology forward with public money.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1618 on: July 24, 2017, 06:05:46 PM »
Quote
only an economically-driven transition could work. It's not sufficient, but it's better  than nothing.

Why would an economically driven transition not  be sufficient?

Because you need people to try the technology, the way of living... before it is economically ok.

For example batteries  with inverter are total nonsense in Luxembourg because the network is almost all the time ok and batteries still cost quite a lot right now and dont have 100% efficiency, but we need people to try it, to do demand response even if we still have the needed peak electrical capacity. This is called a technological developpment, and this is why it is not good for the US economy if RE and storage don't get any state support anymore.

In home batteries don't make sense in most cases.  It will likely make more economic sense to place storage at the grid level.

I still don't understand your claim that economics won't be enough.  You can't prove that claim by picking something isn't needed.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1619 on: July 24, 2017, 06:09:00 PM »
Quote
only an economically-driven transition could work. It's not sufficient, but it's better  than nothing.

Why would an economically driven transition not  be sufficient?
In my view it will not happen globally fast enough and thoroughly enough to avoid most of the effects of AGW. Time will tell of course. I'm still happy that it's happening though. Humanity should and could have been doing much more, a "war effort" to avert the risk, but sadly that's not happening, so economically-driven transition is currently the only practicable way forward.

"Fast enough" should have started 20 years ago and been over by now.

Clearly economics, alone, wouldn't get us off fossil fuels as fast as adding in a lot of other drivers.  But I want to hear a believable argument why economics, alone, will not move the world off fossil fuels.

etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1620 on: July 24, 2017, 06:43:49 PM »
Until very shortly, PV and Wind was more expensive than FF. So it's not economics that started the transition, educated people, helped get competences. Incentives and CO2 (oil independence) tax are needed to speed the move.
There are many example where it seems to go alone, but it is moslty using technology that was developped with state support.
I agree that many things are now available, but support is still needed. If you buy an oil heater, you are finacially speaking on the safe side for the next few years (the ones used to calculate the ROI), it is a well known "cheap" technology with well known lifespan. If you choose geothermy, air heat pump... there are still many unknowns, mainly on bigger systems, so I think it is needed to have state support for such solutions (or penality for standard FF systems).

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1621 on: July 24, 2017, 07:13:32 PM »
Quote
So it's not economics that started the transition

Correct.  But we've now reached the point at which economics is taking over in the replacement of fossil fuels with renewables.  And we are seemingly within short years of the same thing happening for ground transportation as EVs and electrified buses/trucks replace petroleum fueled vehicles.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1622 on: July 24, 2017, 09:40:09 PM »
“Weak growth in demand for oil in many parts of the world in the first quarter made it tougher to draw down U.S. stockpiles, according to Credit Suisse analysts.”

Oil prices will be stuck below $60 through 2020, Credit Suisse forecasts
Credit Suisse on Monday cut its long-term oil price forecast by $5 to $57.50 in 2020.
Oil markets won't reach the long-awaited balance between supply and demand until 2019, the bank said.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/24/oil-prices-below-60-through-2020.html

WTI for September is currently $46.36.
Brent Crude is $48.63.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1623 on: July 25, 2017, 02:30:15 PM »
At the end of an article in Bloomberg about a drilling company's decision to reduce drilling is this quote ("Shale Boom May Finally Have Succumbed to Oil’s Price Slump"):
Quote
“As long as investors continue to invest in companies with growth, with marginal wellhead economics, you’ll get more growth," Walker said during the June 20 meeting. “You guys can help us help ourselves. It’s kind of like going to AA. We need a partner. We need somebody to sit through that class with us."
Sort of sounds like a Ponzi scheme!
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1624 on: July 25, 2017, 02:59:35 PM »
Exxon continues to trade near its two year low of $79 and change.  Death by a thousand cuts....
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wili

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1625 on: July 25, 2017, 03:20:45 PM »
TB wrote: "...sounds like a Ponzi scheme"

All of industrial civilization is a Ponzi scheme.

The 'rewards' keep accumulating to the top till the whole thing collapses.

We are in the earliest stages of that collapse.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1626 on: July 25, 2017, 04:04:17 PM »
I know that wili, but 'they' don't usually say it so plainly.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1627 on: July 25, 2017, 08:51:10 PM »
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/pacific-northwest-lng-project-in-port-edward-b-c-no-longer-proceeding-1.4220936

Petronas has stopped development of the LNG port in British Columbia, blaming economics. This has been pretty much expected for a while, but finally it's confirmed.

The political situation just got a bit worse for them, what with Weaver's Green party having the provincial government by the balls. But even before that it seemed a stretch.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1628 on: July 26, 2017, 01:33:54 PM »
Saudi Arabia reduces oil exports to U.S. -- but other countries increase their output.

Quote
Data published last week by the U.S. Energy Information Administration show that imports from Saudi Arabia in the week to July 14 fell to their lowest for seven years: just 524,000 barrels a day. For sure, one week's number doesn't mean much on its own, particularly when a single very large crude tanker could raise or lower that figure by half.

But this isn't an isolated figure. The EIA data show a clear drop in deliveries from Saudi Arabia since the start of June. The average rate of U.S. imports from the desert kingdom over the past six weeks has dropped by 450,000 barrels a day, or 34 percent, compared with the first six weeks of the year.

Given that it averages six weeks for a tanker full of crude to travel from the Persian Gulf to the U.S., this drop in imports reflects a slowdown in Saudi shipments that began in mid-April, which shows up in Bloomberg tanker tracking data for the Kingdom. So Saudi Arabia is finally slashing exports to the U.S., even as shipments to other destinations -- with less visible inventories -- have been maintained, or even risen.

This is crucial, because the failure to drain U.S. storage tanks has been a major factor in driving down oil prices. "Exports to the U.S. will drop measurably," Saudi oil minister Khalid Al-Falih said in May. The kingdom is now making good on that promise.
...
Meanwhile, output has soared from the two OPEC members exempted from the cuts, something I warned about in this column. Libyan production this month will probably exceed 1 million barrels a day, almost twice April's level. Nigeria is making slower progress, but output there is rising too. Neither will accept a cut, though both might come under pressure to accept a cap slightly above current production levels -- similar to Iran's compromise last year.

The Saudis have belatedly woken up to how oil traders react to a U.S. that's visibly awash with crude. It will amount to very little unless they deal with their Africa problem.
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/amp/articles/2017-07-23/saudi-arabia-turns-off-the-us-oil-tap
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sidd

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1630 on: July 29, 2017, 01:32:03 AM »
Shell gets religion.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/27/profits-surge-van-beurden-puts-focus-discipline/

sidd

One of them has to be the first to move.  We can only hope the others follow soon.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1631 on: July 29, 2017, 01:43:10 AM »
Statoil has launched itself into the floating wind turbine business.   

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1632 on: July 29, 2017, 05:14:22 AM »
Re: "One of them has to be the first to move."

BP did something like this earlier, petered out.

sidd

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1633 on: July 29, 2017, 05:38:56 AM »
Most of my solar panels carry the BP brand.  BP  took a run at solar early on, got cold feet, and bailed.

That was back when panels were still expensive ($8+/watt) and the market small. 

I don't think anyone anticipated what would happen, the way subsidy programs in Europe and aggressive Chinese panel manufacturing would bring down the cost of panel and create huge demand.

But now I think it's becoming obvious to oil companies and car manufacturers that we are emerging into an era of electricity powered vehicles and that oil demand is short years (~10) from crashing.  If you want your oil/car company to survive then it's time to start evolving.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1634 on: July 29, 2017, 04:59:48 PM »
Developer might not build Keystone XL pipeline
Quote
The company that obtained a permit to build the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline might decide not to build it.

A TransCanada Corp. executive told investors Friday that it is still assessing interest in Keystone among the oil companies that would pay to use the Canada-to-Texas line, as well as seeking remaining regulatory approvals, and it will likely decide in November or December whether to build.

The disclosure means that one of President Trump’s signature energy policy promises — to approve Keystone and get it built — may fall victim to commercial pressures and not get done. ...
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/344383-developer-might-not-build-keystone-xl-pipeline


The longer they delay, I'd say the less likely it is that the pipeline will be built.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1635 on: July 29, 2017, 06:09:16 PM »
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may fall victim to commercial pressures and not get done

Looks like the fossil fuel market is starting to crack apart....

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1636 on: August 07, 2017, 06:10:44 PM »
Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 trillion per year
A new study finds 6.5% of global GDP goes to subsidizing dirty fossil fuels
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/aug/07/fossil-fuel-subsidies-are-a-staggering-5-tn-per-year
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1637 on: August 07, 2017, 07:19:11 PM »
Developer might not build Keystone XL pipeline
Quote
The company that obtained a permit to build the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline might decide not to build it.

A TransCanada Corp. executive told investors Friday that it is still assessing interest in Keystone among the oil companies that would pay to use the Canada-to-Texas line, as well as seeking remaining regulatory approvals, and it will likely decide in November or December whether to build.

The disclosure means that one of President Trump’s signature energy policy promises — to approve Keystone and get it built — may fall victim to commercial pressures and not get done. ...
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/344383-developer-might-not-build-keystone-xl-pipeline


The longer they delay, I'd say the less likely it is that the pipeline will be built.

When Canada hiked its central bank interest rate up (from nearly zero to slightly less nearly zero), the Canadian dollar rose about 10-15%. Labour on the tar sands is paid in CAD, but revenue is in USD, so the profit just fell.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1638 on: August 07, 2017, 09:22:37 PM »
The Tar Sands will end up as the biggest industrial museum, and polluted wasteland, in the world. Between shale oil and electrification its days are numbered. Alberta, and Canada, will be left with the mess.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1639 on: August 08, 2017, 04:46:11 PM »
Energy rhetoric irrelevant in world of $50 oil — analysts
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But analysts say federal regulators can do little in light of the reality that crude prices are now about half what they were at the peak of the U.S. drilling boom.

"If oil prices were as low as they were 18 months ago, the best rhetoric in the world could not change the fact that companies are suffering from low oil prices," said Pavel Molchanov, senior vice president and equity research analyst at Raymond James & Associates Inc. "When oil was $100 a barrel, the fact that the rhetoric out of the Obama White House was not as friendly to oil did not make any difference. The industry was in fantastic shape. It was going gangbusters.
https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060058364

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1640 on: August 11, 2017, 04:46:15 PM »
The bad news for oil companies just won't stop.  There's another PV company......Rayton Solar.....now in its funding stage, that will reduce the price of PV panels by 60% because the have a new technology that allow them to use 90% less silicon.

Between the constant decreases in price and increases in efficiency of BOTH battery's and solar panels......oil stocks are going to get crushed for a while until they find a bottom.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1641 on: August 11, 2017, 05:04:27 PM »
New developments in intermittent electricity generation (e.g. solar panels) help peaking power plants like gas and hydro. They hurt coal and nuclear. Oil doesn't care, except on a local scale. You could replace all the diesel generators in the world and hardly make a dent in oil prices.

Batteries are where oil and gas face a real threat. Oil first, through electric cars. Then gas through utility-scale batteries.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1642 on: August 11, 2017, 07:22:11 PM »
Gas gets hurt as solar and wind prices continue to fall.  With zero fuel prices wind and solar will be used as available causing gas plants to shut down.  As installed prices for wind and solar continue to fall installation rates should accelerate until there is no gas being burned when the wind is blowing or Sun shining.

Then storage starts to eat away at gas usage.

Of course cheaper electricity makes EVs more attractive.  But, you're right, the current problem with EVs is battery cost.  That should no longer be an issue in 2-5 years. 

Then the problem will be supply.  There probably won't be enough EVs being manufactured to meet demand and many people will have to continue driving their ICEV while they wait for manufacturing to increase.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1643 on: August 11, 2017, 08:35:25 PM »
It is expected that EV's will be on price party with ICE's....NEXT YEAR when looking at total cost of ownership.  Fast forward 5 years....and the will likely be the same average sticker price (and LESS than ICE  vehicles.  And equity markets are already starting to price this in.

Saudi Aramco waited 3 - 5 years too long to start the IPO process.  They left a lot of money on the table....IPO to be next year.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1644 on: August 12, 2017, 02:19:44 PM »
The long term chart of Exxon will look a lot like the long term chart of JC Penny's.....and JC Pennys hit an all time low this past week.  You'll see the oil companies in panic mode over the next 12 - 24 months as they look to buy their way into the renewable energy markets by means of acquisition.  For many of them it is too late because they already have too much debt on there balance sheet.  Those with a decent stock valuation can acquire companies with their stock.  You are going to witness a real panic in fossil fuel companies as the small effect from electric vehicles continues to build at high rate.

India, China and Europe are moving quickly into electric transportation....and even though the absolute numbers are still relatively small....they are growing quickly....and oil prices are set with the buyers at THE MARGINAL BUYER.  Oil companies are going to feel a lot of hurt in the next 5 years.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1645 on: August 12, 2017, 07:53:58 PM »
Let's remember that we are talking about the share of new car purchases, not the total stock of cars. So the effect will still be pretty small even 5 years from now, especially if the overall car market keeps growing. There will be no impact on trucking, shipping or the airline industry - which account for more than half of oil demand.

It also depends on the long-term viability of fracking shale oil. If its still in good shape 5 years from now, with new rigs offsetting depletion, then oil prices will still be low. If not, we could have higher prices. Its both incremental demand and supply that counts. Conventional oil is in long term depletion.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1646 on: August 12, 2017, 08:14:50 PM »
Rboyd....

Just to clarify my stance.  Yes....EV's are a SMALL percentage....and will still be relatively small in 5 years.  The average length of ownership in the US is....I believe.....11 years.  And we have two BIG things working against oil companies:

1). Global warming.  Isn't going away....and public support for doing something about it is on the rise.
2). Long term investors are continuing to shy away from fossil fuels.  Sentiment is growing against fossil fuel companies.

Just like chart of JC Pennys...  the chart of Exxon will have "counter rally's up"....but the long term direction is decidedly DOWN.  And for the same reason:  They are slowly being replaced.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1647 on: August 12, 2017, 09:23:47 PM »
With energy, nothing is sure. Back in 2008, I would have never believed that prices would go so low for such a long time like they are now. I even used to think that energy saving investments didn't need a high ROI because increasing prices would insure the return.

I'm pretty sure that the oil price is a rollercoaster, and so probably also for Exxon's chart. The problem is that you never know if the next step is up or down.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1648 on: August 12, 2017, 09:36:24 PM »
Etienne.....

Nothing is "for sure".... I will certainly agree with you on that.  Note that 2008 is far different than 2017 regarding the energy markets.  Renewable energy was in its infancy...and electric cars just barely started.   Battery's have improved drastically.....while the price has plummeted.  And there is a LOT of improvement on the NEAR horizon.

I think the oil companies are just now realizing they are in for a tougher slog...and sooner than they thought 5 years ago.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #1649 on: August 12, 2017, 09:44:19 PM »
Let's remember that we are talking about the share of new car purchases, not the total stock of cars. So the effect will still be pretty small even 5 years from now, especially if the overall car market keeps growing. There will be no impact on trucking, shipping or the airline industry - which account for more than half of oil demand.

It also depends on the long-term viability of fracking shale oil. If its still in good shape 5 years from now, with new rigs offsetting depletion, then oil prices will still be low. If not, we could have higher prices. Its both incremental demand and supply that counts. Conventional oil is in long term depletion.

50% of US driving is done with cars five years old or newer.  Sales of new EVs will have a larger impact than just their sales numbers.  And we could easily see people who do a lot of driving buy a new EV instead of driving their current ICEV just for the fuel savings.  That would load the "most miles" metric higher.

Tesla is supposedly displaying a battery powered long distance freight tractor next month.

"It also depends on the long-term viability of fracking shale oil. If its still in good shape 5 years from now, with new rigs offsetting depletion, then oil prices will still be low."

Apparently the cost of oil fracking has fallen.  If true, this will lower oil's price ceiling.  Odds of expensive oil in the future are very low.  US fracking will set the ceiling (at well under $50/barrel?) and EVs will eat away at demand.

That's kind of bad news.  I was hoping that we'd see another big price spike which would send lots more people looking for EVs and PHEVs.