Buddy I must say these blue and red straight "trend" lines sure look like cherry-picking. I too fear that there has been some acceleration in SLR in the last few years, but this chart does not show a doubling. The 2010 low was not representative of the previous trend, but its biggest negative anomaly instead. The data points since around 2014/2015 that are above the black trend line are interesting and disturbing but not long enough to form a certain signal.Yes
....I can certainly accept that critique. Changes in TREND
are a tricky thing.....because you never know until AFTER
they happen. And differentiating between (1) short term
, and (2) intermediate term
is fraught with pot holes.
But think about 2 things:(1)
I was ONLY
pointing WHAT ALREADY HAS HAPPENED
....and what MIGHT HAPPEN
over the coming decade or so. Yes....it is DEFINITELY
short term. Could it just be a short term "blip"....and then head back DOWN
to the LONGER TERM TREND LINE?
I happen to think that many if not MOST
climate scientists have underestimated many things within the climate change realm because they have a CONSERVATIVE BIAS. I think we have begun to see that OVER CONSERVATIVE BIAS come to light over the past few years.....and I think it will continue to "unwind" as accelerating physics play out.
I have is that I am NOT
a "trained scientist".....let alone a trained CLIMATE SCIENTIST
. So that is a disadvantage.
I have is that I am NOT
a "trained scientist".....let along a trained CLIMATE SCIENTIST
Yes....it cuts BOTH WAYS.
I am NOT
"weighed down" by looking too closely at every twig and leaf....but instead am looking CLOSELY AT THE BIGGER PICTURE
and then "drilling down" to see why "things are happening" on a larger scale (yes....drilling down into what CLIMATE SCIENTSTS are finding).
I have but two simple goals: (1)
Look to see WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING
, and then (2)
Look ahead to see where we are likely headed over the next decade
....and communicate that to others.
We'll see how the sea level plays out over the next 5 years or more....but I DO
believe we are in an "accelerating pattern" that will play out over time..... In the case of sea level rise....within the new "channel" that has been established.NOTE:
I have input a zig-zag "black line" which shows the SHORT TERM
"legs" within the LONGER INTERMEDIATE TERM CHANNEL UP.
Fundamentally.....I believe there will be MORE
to come at HIGHER LEVELS
of melt in future decades.