Please support this Forum and Neven's Blog

Author Topic: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon  (Read 140736 times)

DrTskoul

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 420
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #650 on: January 20, 2017, 03:04:05 AM »
Study of past warming signals major sea level rise ahead

http://science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aai8464

.. The findings in the journal Science show that ocean surface temperatures during the Earth's last warm period, some 125,000 years ago, were remarkably similar to today.

But what concerns scientists is that sea level back then was 20-30 feet (six to nine meters) above what it is today...
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

Lennart van der Linde

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 650
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #651 on: January 20, 2017, 04:52:23 PM »
New worst-case scenario by NOAA for global (and regional) sea level rise:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf

For RCP8.5 they estimate a 0.1% chance of 2.5m in 2100 and 9.7m in 2200, with from 2150 to 2200 an average rise of 84 cm per decade.

longwalks1

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 33
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #652 on: January 21, 2017, 08:28:40 PM »
I can't help but be sarcastic about the "US_final.pdf" part of the url.

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 10784
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #653 on: January 23, 2017, 01:13:48 AM »
Study of past warming signals major sea level rise ahead

http://science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aai8464

.. The findings in the journal Science show that ocean surface temperatures during the Earth's last warm period, some 125,000 years ago, were remarkably similar to today.

But what concerns scientists is that sea level back then was 20-30 feet (six to nine meters) above what it is today...



Here is any image of the submerged lands (in red) 125,000 years ago
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

DrTskoul

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 420
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #654 on: January 23, 2017, 01:41:03 AM »
What is depicted by red?
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 10784
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #655 on: January 23, 2017, 01:59:11 AM »
What is depicted by red?

The land that was submerged 125,000 years ago that are not yet submerged today; but by extension may well be submerged (either just submerged or very substantially submerged) sometime in the future.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2017, 02:12:25 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

magnamentis

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 770
    • View Profile
    • Nexpaq Modular ARA iOS Software Mobile Computing Phones Philosophy Ethics Numerology Mikrocirkulation Vaskular Therapie Gesundheit Blut Gesundheit Schmerzen Multipelsklerose Diabetes Immunsystem Fibromyalgie
Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #656 on: January 23, 2017, 11:55:24 AM »
i think that at same temps there was more land submerged because it took much longer for the temps to rise, hence in the process give more time for the ice to melt.

this time the warming process is significantly faster which leaves the SLR behind but there is no doubt IMO that it will catch up eventually and probably with force, means very quickly (abruptly LOL) as compared to past occurrences.

in short, i think that it's the speed of events that explain the difference of lower sea levels at same temps.
http://magnamentis.com
Knowledge, Understanding & Insight Are Among The Best Sources For Personal Freedom & Vitality !

jai mitchell

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1350
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #657 on: February 10, 2017, 05:35:48 PM »
A new study looks at regional sea level rise impacts in North America, using the projections from the U.S. National Climate assessment they find that some communities in the North East will experience tidal flooding up to 3 times per week by 2040.

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0170949

Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045

    Kristina A. Dah et al

Abstract

Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001–2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years.
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 7228
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #658 on: February 11, 2017, 07:19:12 PM »
Article based on the PLOS ONE study described in comment #657:

Coastal Cities Could Flood Three Times a Week by 2045
The lawns of homes purchased this year in vast swaths of coastal America could regularly be underwater before the mortgage has even been paid off, with new research showing high tide flooding could become nearly incessant in places within 30 years.

Such floods could occur several times a week on average by 2045 along the mid-Atlantic coastline, where seas have been rising faster than nearly anywhere else, and where lands are sagging under the weight of geological changes.

Washington and Annapolis, Md. could see more than 120 high tide floods every year by 2045, or one flood every three days, according to the study, published last week in the journal PLOS ONE. That’s up from once-a-month flooding in mid-Atlantic regions now, which blocks roads and damages homes.

“The flooding would generally cluster around the new and full moons,” said Erika Spanger-Siegfried, a Union of Concerned Scientists analysts who helped produce the new study. “Many tide cycles in a row would bring flooding, this would peter out, and would then be followed by a string of tides without flooding.”

The analysis echoed findings from previous studies, though it stood out in part because of its focus on impacts that are expected within a generation — instead of, say, by the end of the century....
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/coastal-cities-flood-three-times-a-week-2045-21153
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

jai mitchell

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1350
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #659 on: February 16, 2017, 06:34:45 PM »
heinrich events were caused by warming oceans, not air as previously thought and the implications for Thwaites and PIG are devastating.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/02/170215131551.htm

"We're seeing ocean warming in those region and we're seeing these regions start to change. In that area, they're seeing ocean temperature changes of about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit," Bassis said. "That's pretty similar magnitude as we believe occurred in the Laurentide events, and what we saw in our simulations is that just a small amount of ocean warming can destabilize a region if it's in the right configuration, and even in the absence of atmospheric warming."
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 10784
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #660 on: February 22, 2017, 01:06:25 AM »
The linked article is entitled: "Think States Alone Can't Handle Sea Level Rise?  Watch California".

https://www.wired.com/2017/02/think-states-alone-cant-handle-sea-level-rise-watch-california/

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson