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Author Topic: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon  (Read 162236 times)

Archimid

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #700 on: April 21, 2017, 03:21:49 PM »
State of emergency declared for Louisiana coast by Gov. John Bel Edwards

http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2017/04/state_of_emergency_louisiana_coast.html

Gov. John Bel Edwards on Wednesday (April 19) officially declared Louisiana's coastal land loss an emergency, a move he hopes will expedite a host of restoration projects mired in federal permitting. "The Louisiana coast is in a state of crisis that demands immediate and urgent action to avert further damage to one of our most vital resources," he said.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #701 on: April 21, 2017, 03:52:54 PM »
On the left the official Louisiana Coastline; on the right reality.

TerryM

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #702 on: April 21, 2017, 04:51:54 PM »
A Democratic governor asks a Republican President for funds to help with problems due to climate change.
A Rabbi, a Priest, and a Reverend walk into a bar.


Which will elicit more laughs?


Terry

Shared Humanity

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #703 on: April 22, 2017, 03:11:42 PM »
Simple little article making a simple little point....the financial system, the foundation of capitalism, will not be able to withstand the impact of rising sea levels in southeast Florida and this little story will be playing out across the country and world.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-19/the-nightmare-scenario-for-florida-s-coastal-homeowners

The difference between this unavoidable financial catastrophe from the housing crisis that tanked the world economy in 2007 is that there will be no recovery of the housing prices.

And this ignores completely the disastrous effects of other climate destruction of the real economy.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #704 on: May 18, 2017, 07:50:06 PM »
While the linked reference may well err on the side of least drama it is a good first effort to quantify the impacts of potential abrupt sea level rise associated with ice-cliff failure and hydrofracting mechanisms:

Kopp et. al. (2017) "Implications of ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse mechanisms for sea-level projections", arXiv:1704.05597v1

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1704.05597.pdf

Abstract: "Probabilistic sea-level projections have not yet integrated insights from physical ice-sheet models representing mechanisms, such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse, that can rapidly increase ice-sheet discharge. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sealevel projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on projections of global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL) change. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), these physical processes increase median projected 21st century GMSL rise from ~80 cm to ~150 cm. Revised median RSL projections would, without protective measures, by 2100 submerge land currently home to > 79 million people, an increase of ~25 million people. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration, increases sensitivity to forcing: overlap between the central 90% of the frequency distributions for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93–243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26–98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches > 10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by ~900 million people (vs. ~80 million for RCP 2.6). There is little correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond, so current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. These initial explorations indicate the value and challenges of developing truly probabilistic sea-level rise projections incorporating complex ice-sheet physics."
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Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #705 on: May 18, 2017, 11:03:14 PM »
While the linked reference may well err on the side of least drama it is a good first effort to quantify the impacts of potential abrupt sea level rise associated with ice-cliff failure and hydrofracting mechanisms.

Thanks for the reference ASLR. Table 1 below, from Kopp et al 2017, shows the estimates with and without including the results of DC 16 (DeConto & Pollard 2016). RCP4.5 still has a 5% chance of 4.55m in 2200, and RCP2.6 a 5% chance of 2.06m in 2200.

Dry_Land_Is_Not_A_Myth

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #706 on: May 19, 2017, 01:29:40 AM »
What do the column labels mean (50, 17-83, 5-95, 1-99, 99.9)?

oren

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #707 on: May 19, 2017, 07:49:32 AM »
What do the column labels mean (50, 17-83, 5-95, 1-99, 99.9)?
Probability ranges.
Edit: Actually explained at the bottom of the table.