Please support this Forum and Neven's Blog

Author Topic: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout  (Read 37017 times)

wili

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1872
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #50 on: February 24, 2015, 02:05:27 AM »
Good catch. I started another thread on it, but if the mods want to merge, that would be cool. More here, too: http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2015/02/new-sinkholes-appear-yamal-12-02
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Gray-Wolf

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 569
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #51 on: February 24, 2015, 11:03:54 AM »
We are heading toward 20 years of ice free conditions over summer in the region so have we begun to cross a threshold as the heat penetrates further into the permafrost?

More of a concern to me are the same reserves offshore? If land temps are now becoming critical ( for this process) then what are we to find off shore? I remember the 2010 expedition finding that features plotted the year previous had grown ten fold over the year. With 2012 part of the scene post 2010 just how corrupted by warm sea water have the permafrosts become? Could the land craters be being driven by gas migrating from the ocean sediments and are they just the 'cracks in the dam' that we are seeing prior to a major 'burp' from the destabilised permafrost off shore?
« Last Edit: February 25, 2015, 10:38:22 AM by Gray-Wolf »
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Neven

  • Administrator
  • ASIF Governor
  • *****
  • Posts: 3598
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #52 on: February 24, 2015, 01:04:13 PM »
Good catch. I started another thread on it, but if the mods want to merge, that would be cool.

Yes, a merge seemed to be in order, don't want two separate topics in two different categories. Keep the links concentrated, especially with an intriguing subject as this.   :)

Thanks for keeping an eye on this, everyone.
Il faut cultiver notre jardin

johnm33

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 673
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #53 on: February 24, 2015, 01:24:52 PM »
Slightly ot but looking at these holes makes me wonder just how extensive this deep ice is. I can't find any map that differentiates between what is clearly dirty ice and other examples of permafrost. Has anyone seen radar images that map out the bedrock in any of the extensive areas of permafrost cover?

wili

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1872
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #54 on: February 24, 2015, 02:59:52 PM »
Good questions on bedrock. I've heard that at places the permafrost is about a mile deep. So there is variation and presumably someone has done some research on this.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

johnm33

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 673
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #55 on: February 25, 2015, 01:08:55 AM »
I wonder if this helps to explain them? http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14577882

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1856
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #56 on: March 25, 2015, 09:58:17 PM »
So anyone care to speculate how many new sinkholes are discovered by the end of this melt season? My guess is this is merely the beginning evidence of a new process underway on the Yamal peninsula and that, over the next several years, the incidence of sinkholes will grow exponentially.

viddaloo

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1302
  • Hardanger Sometimes
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #57 on: March 25, 2015, 10:37:35 PM »
If related to global warming, it no doubt will. In addition, there's oil & gas activities in the area, as well as military installations and a tense situation with existential threats from Mr Obama and our own Mr Stoltenberg.

If these explosions are all natural — which I believe they are — the threat of war from NATO could become more of a side–show to these natural events unfolding both on land and out on the continental shelf.

Personally, I think it is a shame good people and friendly neighbours can't cooperate in working against this enormous threat instead of playing their old geopolitical games, sucking up huge parts of their annual budgets.
[]

Gray-Wolf

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 569
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #58 on: March 26, 2015, 10:55:22 AM »
I too have concerns that we may just be seeing the start of a process that could leave Yamal looking like the Somme by 1916?

To me I worry that the record warm years they have been seeing, since the Sea ice retreated, have begun to destabilise the deposits and, if Shakhova is correct and we do have ice 'capped' pockets of pre formed Methane across the permafrost, then these 'burps' , now beginning ,will increase in number as the process reaches down to the 'critical' depth? What we need to know is how this is process is progressing under the warmer conditions off shore. Were the 'chimneys' that we heard of back in 2012 the sea bed version of what we are now seeing on land? The disruptions to the strata that these chimneys made over one year of study ( ten fold increase in size across the chimney) does show a similar explosive process at play.
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1856
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #59 on: March 26, 2015, 04:14:29 PM »
I too have concerns that we may just be seeing the start of a process that could leave Yamal looking like the Somme by 1916?

To me I worry that the record warm years they have been seeing, since the Sea ice retreated, have begun to destabilise the deposits and, if Shakhova is correct and we do have ice 'capped' pockets of pre formed Methane across the permafrost, then these 'burps' , now beginning ,will increase in number as the process reaches down to the 'critical' depth? What we need to know is how this is process is progressing under the warmer conditions off shore. Were the 'chimneys' that we heard of back in 2012 the sea bed version of what we are now seeing on land? The disruptions to the strata that these chimneys made over one year of study ( ten fold increase in size across the chimney) does show a similar explosive process at play.

I think the sea bed chimneys may be absolutely the same phenomena, merely exhibiting differently underwater. The warm water over the frozen seabed would have the effect of melting the surface ground, allowing the methane to seep out. On land, we could be seeing subsurface melt while the land based cap holds the methane in until it fails in spectacular fashion.

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1856
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #60 on: March 29, 2015, 04:48:49 PM »
If there is subsurface melt  on the Yamal forming underground pockets that will also fail, is there some way to see these using satellites?

Gray-Wolf

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 569
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #61 on: March 30, 2015, 11:17:00 AM »
This year should prove to be very informative with regards to these features? We have not seen any great departure from the warm up over the region in the past decade or so ( at least since it became common for the Sea ice to fully retreat/disappear off shore over summer) so any 'new' behaviours that this warming has instigated must surely continue and grow?

I would imagine that by Aug quite a few eyes will be checking modis for signs of new cratering in the region?

As for the off shore deposits? well if the chimneys are the sub sea equivalent of the blow outs then how far into the progression of destabilisation of the strata are we? every 'chimney' must be allowing more sea water into the deposits exposing more and more of the submerged permafrost to high temps and so further destabilisation ?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

LRC1962

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 400
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #62 on: March 30, 2015, 01:34:20 PM »
As for the off shore deposits? well if the chimneys are the sub sea equivalent of the blow outs then how far into the progression of destabilisation of the strata are we? every 'chimney' must be allowing more sea water into the deposits exposing more and more of the submerged permafrost to high temps and so further destabilisation ?
If I understand the Russia theory right under sea blow holes very unlikely. The Russian theory is that it is methane gas release that was trapped under the permafrost layer. Under the sea that does not exist as that is basically just clathrates which release methane much more slowly.
You are right though in that if the warm summers continue there will be many more blowholes. Finding them will be the challenge unless a lot of hobby followers get involved and find them for the scientists working on it.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
       - Arthur Schopenhauer

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1856
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #63 on: March 30, 2015, 05:33:10 PM »
As for the off shore deposits? well if the chimneys are the sub sea equivalent of the blow outs then how far into the progression of destabilisation of the strata are we? every 'chimney' must be allowing more sea water into the deposits exposing more and more of the submerged permafrost to high temps and so further destabilisation ?
If I understand the Russia theory right under sea blow holes very unlikely. The Russian theory is that it is methane gas release that was trapped under the permafrost layer. Under the sea that does not exist as that is basically just clathrates which release methane much more slowly.
You are right though in that if the warm summers continue there will be many more blowholes. Finding them will be the challenge unless a lot of hobby followers get involved and find them for the scientists working on it.

I agree with Gray-Wolf. I believe we are seeing similar behaviors wherever the permafrost is failing. In areas further south in Siberia, thermokarsts form as the permafrost melts. Once a thermokarst forms, it will expand and form marshy lakes that grow, sometimes quite rapidly, as the surrounding permafrost is exposed to the warm waters and air. From reports, the subsea methane vents are exhibiting the same basic behavior. Russian research vessels have discovered that individual vents are increasing in size 10 fold, year over year. Once a vent forms due to the permafrost melting, the  surrounding permafrost melts more rapidly as it is now exposed to the warm sea water. While there is less evidence with the blow holes on Yamal, didn't smaller blow holes appear that surround one of the earlier blow holes? These smaller blow holes, I think, will eventually merge with the blow hole in the center, forming a much larger one.

We are seeing exponential trends wherever detailed research is being carried out, glacier speeds, Antarctic ice shelf melt etc. It would surprise me if these phenomena, which I believe are linked, would not exhibit similar behavior and early research suggests they do.

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1856
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #64 on: March 30, 2015, 05:40:41 PM »
In each of these distinct processes, warm water is the driver. With subsea methane vents, it is the sea water. I imagine the marshy lake water, collecting in thermokarsts in Siberia, can get quite warm in the ridiculously warm summers they are experiencing. Similarly, the blowholes are described as having icy lakes, 70 meters below ground.

Is this process really any different than what is occurring in the Arctic Ocean? The newly exposed sea water is warming quite rapidly which accelerates the melt and degradation (rotten ice?) of the surrounding, remaining ice. Even if the sea ice does not melt out completely during a particular melt season, exposure to the stored heat in the warm sea water degrades it. Even if the permafrost in these three distinct phenomena does not melt completely during a particular melt season, the stored heat in the water degrades the adjacent permafrost, making it far more  likely to melt in the next season.

jai mitchell

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1555
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #65 on: March 30, 2015, 08:46:06 PM »
These 'blowholes' are pingos  a simple observation proves it.

notice the smooth sides of the opening, just below the surface crust:



it is obvious that the original formation was formed by ice which has subsequently melted.

Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Anne

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 514
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #66 on: April 05, 2015, 06:42:48 PM »
I don't think anyone's actually posted a link to the Leibman paper:
NEW PERMAFROST FEATURE – DEEP CRATER IN CENTRAL YAMAL
(WEST SIBERIA, RUSSIA) AS A RESPONSE TO LOCAL CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS

Marina O. Leibman, Alexander I. Kizyakov, Andrei V. Plekhanov,
Irina D. Streletskaya

ABSTRACT. This paper is based on field data obtained during short visits to a newly formed permafrost feature in a form of relatively narrow, deep crater. Excluding impossible and improbable versions of the crater’s development, the authors conclude that it originated from warmer ground temperatures and an increase in unfrozen water content, leading to an increase in pressure from gas emissions from permafrost and ground ice. This conclusion is also supported by known processes in the palaeo-geography of Yamal lakes and recent studies of gas-hydrate behavior and subsea processes in gas-bearing provinces.

CONCLUSIONS (1) An exciting permafrost feature, a gas emission crater surrounded by a parapet no more than 30 m in diameter is observed;

(2) As water accumulates at the bottom of the hole, the feature has no access to deeper layers and the assumption that deep-seated gas deposits caused the crater is implausible;

(3) No traces of human activity in the vicinity of the crater were found, so this phenomenon is of a purely natural origin;

(4) The date of the crater’s formation is estimated to have been in the late fall of 2013;

(5) The high concentration of methane in the hole, which decreases in the vicinity of the hole and is negligible far from the hole, indicates the role of methane in the formation of the crater;

(6) No high background radiation and no traces of extremely high temperatures, which would point to a gas explosion or an extraterrestrial object such as a meteorite were observed.


RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES No.04[v.07] 2014, GEOGRAPHY  ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINABILITY  pp 68 - 80

http://www.rgo.ru/sites/default/files/gi214_sverka.pdf
(H/T Alexander Ač on Robert Scribbler's blog)

Anne

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 514
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #67 on: July 12, 2015, 12:43:30 AM »
There has been another expedition to the first discovered blowhole, which is filling with water. And it is believed to be a pingo, but not formed in quite the usual way.
Professor Vasily Bogoyavlensky, who led the latest expedition, told The Siberian Times: 'I think that next year it will be full of water and it will turn completely into a lake; in 10-20 years it will be difficult to say what happened here. The parapet will be washed away with rains and melting snow, the banks will be covered with water.

'This large crater fills with water rather fast - in just two years, so we need to examine such objects quickly.'

The professor, deputy director of the Moscow-based Oil and Gas Research Institute, part of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said: 'We can now say more confidently about the process that led to the formation of the famous Yamal crater B-1. It was combination of a thermokarst (a form of pre-glacial topography) process and the migration of gases from the depth'.

It was also created from a pingo, he believes, something that experts initially doubted.

'It was a pingo or bulgunnyakh (mounds with an ice core common for Arctic and sub-Arctic regions), and then, due to the Earth’s heat flow this pingo starts to thaw and its half melted ice core is filled with gas that originates from the depth through cracks and faults in the ground.

'We know for sure that there is a fissure in the ground under this spot, probably even two intersecting faults - gullies around the spot confirm this. Through the cracks, natural gas got into the melting ice core, filled it and the pingo erupted. It was also heated by a stream of warmth coming from the bowels of the earth through the cracks.'

It is believed methane gas was largely responsible, though readings taken by the latest expedition showed no abnormal gas levels at the site.

The process is different than usual, because 'normally pingos thaw and collapse, forming the craters and then lakes which is quite a normal process.

'Here we see that the pingo erupts due to the gas which fills its core. It's a very interesting process, which we have never observed before'.


Much more, and pictures, in The Siberian Times
Link
(H/T Colorado Bob)

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3031
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #68 on: July 12, 2015, 10:37:00 AM »
Thanks for the heads up Anne. Here's the associated video:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

johnm33

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 673
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #69 on: July 12, 2015, 12:08:47 PM »
Anyone else intrigued by the frozen wave appearence of the permafrost 'strata' 32sec and opposite side at about 1:16 in the video, thanks Jim and Anne.
add on The hole is about 60m deep iirc nothing on the peninsular is much more than 45m above sea level, anyone know of a bedrock map?
« Last Edit: July 12, 2015, 12:38:58 PM by johnm33 »

TerryM

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1505
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #70 on: July 12, 2015, 06:26:00 PM »
Not sure that this is the correct thread - but the CH-4 outgassing captured below would probably have gone unnoticed if it hadn't occurred at a rural golf course. If it had erupted a little north of where it did, in a permafrost pocket, would it have created a similar feature?


http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/watch-golfer-discovers-natural-gas-blast-in-pond-/52963


Terry

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1856
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #71 on: July 14, 2015, 02:36:38 AM »
When the first hole was discovered on the Yamal Peninsula, I speculated up-thread wildly as to the cause. There was one thing I was sure of. This was a new phenomena, related to climate change and we were going to see a lot more of these.

Courtesy of Robert Scribbler.....

https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2015/02/24/arctic-methane-monster-shows-growing-eruption-number-of-global-warming-induced-craters-now-estimated-at-20-30/

Add this to the list of phenomena related to climate change that are poorly understood and will be growing exponentially from this point forward.

We are......so very.......screwed.

bryman

  • Guest
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #72 on: July 15, 2015, 04:13:12 AM »
Not really. Those craters are the results of pingos, not hydrates,
<snip>

Edit Neven: Last warning, for both forum and blog. I'm getting tired of the concern trolling. Not because of your disagreeing with people, but because your tone is belligerent, condescending and spoiling the atmosphere.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2015, 08:25:14 AM by Neven »

anotheramethyst

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 137
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #73 on: July 15, 2015, 06:13:58 AM »
i appreciate your opinion, bryman, but was that level of hostility really necessary?

wili

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1872
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #74 on: July 15, 2015, 07:16:31 AM »
"was that level of hostility really necessary?"

Look back at his earlier posts--hostility seems to be about his only mode of discourse around here.

Here's the latest on the craters:

http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0302-startling-changes-revealed-in-mystery-craters-in-northern-siberia/

"the formation is something 'never observed' before, linked to warm weather in recent years"

"here the gas went not from the depth via the cracks in the ground, but it was gas hydrate located close to the surface."

Still some mysteries, but climate change and hydrates are about as likely to be involved as anything.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

anotheramethyst

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 137
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #75 on: July 15, 2015, 07:43:24 AM »
thanks wili :)

nice article, it's good they aren't detecting unusual methane there anymore.  here's an older article that mentions the methane found at the bottom of the first hole right after it erupted.  methane in concentrations of 9.6%.  correct me if i'm wrong, that would be 96,000,000 ppb right?  obviously that gets diluted quite a bit when it reaches the atmosphere. 

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1856
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #76 on: July 15, 2015, 03:23:00 PM »
Not really. Those craters are the results of pingos, not hydrates,
<snip>

Edit Neven: Last warning, for both forum and blog. I'm getting tired of the concern trolling. Not because of your disagreeing with people, but because your tone is belligerent, condescending and spoiling the atmosphere.

I assume I was insulted here. I didn't get a chance to read it unfortunately. At any rate, I fully expect to be disagreed with as I have very little real understanding of the science. I am more of a fascinated spectator.

I do think my useful role here is in exploring the things that are not well understood and suggesting possibilities. Playing this role, I welcome more informed opinions explaining to me why I am not correct. This helps me learn and might inform others who visit what is really going on.

If I take it too far, somebody grab me and gently shake me to snap me out of it.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • ASIF Governor
  • *****
  • Posts: 3598
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #77 on: July 15, 2015, 04:47:59 PM »
Not to worry, SH. I had forgotten I had already given a last warning to Bryman (and the other names he posts under, here and on the blog) a couple of months ago, and so I banned him. I'm a bit lenient when it comes to banning people, so again, sorry for the delay.
Il faut cultiver notre jardin

wili

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1872
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #78 on: July 15, 2015, 05:34:50 PM »
I don't actually mind a bit of anger once in a while, especially if it's focused in the right direction (away from me ;D ;D ;D).

And I don't mind people parading their ignorance / not supporting their claims with links...(guilty as charged).

It's the combination of being extremely belligerent while making demonstrably faulty claims unsupported by any link or reference that gets...annoying after a while.

(Uh oh, now I have to avoid doing this myself! D'oh!  :-[  ;D))
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

anotheramethyst

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 137
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #79 on: July 16, 2015, 06:06:23 AM »
i mostly agree with wili and go further to say even a certain amount of rudeness and belligerence is understandable, especially when its 3 pages into a fascinating discussion that started out polite.  everyone feels strongly about their own ideas.  but to be vicious from the start when completely unprovoked is unacceptable.  but the real reason i said anything is that particular tone just reminded me of some atheist self-described trolls i know on facebook.  i personally like the fact that healthy debate is allowed here, and everyone is given a chance to improve their behavior.  and if you miss a few idiots, it's ok, we all know you're busy.   we are all here for the cutting edge observations of the sea ice, a few idiots aren't going to scare anyone away.  and it doesn't take long to figure out who here really knows the arctic (i don't have to tell anyone that short list does not include me!!) there are some real experts here.  and i don't want to distract from this discussion anymore :) so thanks!!

johnm33

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 673
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #80 on: September 24, 2015, 01:58:13 PM »
New report on the hole which connects it to global warming http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0415-danger-of-methane-explosions-on-yamal-peninsula-scientists-warn/ I have a different view which if I can write something coherent I'll add later.

johnm33

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 673
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #81 on: November 20, 2015, 07:45:38 PM »
I can't see this as a pingo it just doesn't fit the bill. My uneducated take on this phenomenon is this. Some water percolated through the ground from the nearby lake, at depth, and defrosted a few methantrophic bacteria. Contained in the water was some methane which was metabolised releasing CO2, this was at about 65m depth so the pressure from the nearby lake would give about 6bar. The CO2 remained in the water and a little at a time more methane rose up through it and a small pocket of [CH4/CO2] gas sat above the water. Due to the pressure the gas was always above 0c and a constant slow melt occurred supplying a trickle of nutrients. If there were more than two,[the 'cave']  these cylindrical columns of water grew in circumference and merged as they moved towards the surface. Whether the gas pocket grew to the full circumference or not the pressure in it was always kept close to 6bar, any excess would cause the lake to overflow,which may have had the effect of consolidating the permafrost capping. Eventually the dome was sufficiently close to the surface, perhaps in the spring melt, to burst through. Some of the capping was thrown aside some went up and came straight down, the equivalent of shaking a bottle of champagne after opening. The bulk of the water was blasted into the air, immediately freezing, [looked like smoke from a distance] and was carried away on the breeze. Thereafter the hole began to be filled from the bottom up by the lake.
edit added link, http://www.pnas.org/content/112/45/13946.full
« Last Edit: December 01, 2015, 07:51:44 PM by johnm33 »

jai mitchell

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1555
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #82 on: November 21, 2015, 02:06:25 AM »
they are pingos, the smooth sides of the inner walls show how the expansion of ice through the permafrost produced the classic pingo.
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11500
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #83 on: November 24, 2015, 04:12:56 PM »
The pingos appear to be extending offshore into the South Kara Sea, per the linked article:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/11/23/mysterious-siberian-craters-may-have-an-underwater-analogue-scientists-say/

Extract: "A recent scientific paper may have just cast new light on mysterious happenings on the Yamal Peninsula in Siberia, where the appearance of numerous large craters in the permafrost has been attributed, at least by some, to the venting of large pockets of methane gas, possibly in a dramatic or sudden way."

See also:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JF003467/full

Abstract: "The Holocene marine transgression starting at ~19 ka flooded the Arctic shelves driving extensive thawing of terrestrial permafrost. It thereby promoted methanogenesis within sediments, the dissociation of gas hydrates, and the release of formerly trapped gas, with the accumulation in pressure of released methane eventually triggering blowouts through weakened zones in the overlying and thinned permafrost. Here we present a range of geophysical and chemical scenarios for the formation of pingo-like formations (PLFs) leading to potential blowouts. Specifically, we report on methane anomalies from the South Kara Sea shelf focusing on two PLFs imaged from high-resolution seismic records. A variety of geochemical methods are applied to study concentrations and types of gas, its character, and genesis. PLF 1 demonstrates ubiquitously low-methane concentrations (14.2–55.3 ppm) that are likely due to partly unfrozen sediments with an ice-saturated internal core reaching close to the seafloor. In contrast, PLF 2 reveals anomalously high-methane concentrations of >120,000 ppm where frozen sediments are completely absent. The methane in all recovered samples is of microbial and not of thermogenic origin from deep hydrocarbon sources. However, the relatively low organic matter content (0.52–1.69%) of seafloor sediments restricts extensive in situ methane production. As a consequence, we hypothesize that the high-methane concentrations at PLF 2 are due to microbial methane production and migration from a deeper source."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 7708
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #84 on: June 11, 2016, 04:46:59 PM »
Appearance of crater dubbed ‘the Gateway to the Underworld’ in Siberia is a warning to our warming planet
Such slumps have been ‘increasing in extent and intensity’ in the frozen north, scientists say
The Batagaika crater is thought to have begun after local people cut down some trees in the 1980s or early 1990s.

“Once you disturb the vegetation or soil above permafrost that can often set in train events that lead to the melting of ice within the permafrost,” he said.

“Cutting down of vegetation … removes some of the insulation that keeps the ground cool and that allows the summer heat to penetrate deeper into the ground.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/gateway-to-the-underworld-siberia-batagaika-siberia-russia-permafrost-melting-a7063936.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Laurent

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2519
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #85 on: June 11, 2016, 05:35:03 PM »
In this article :
Professor Julian Murton, a geologist at the University of Sussex, has just returned from a trip to the crater to study its cliffs, which provide a new source of geological information that potentially dates back some 200,000 years.
This includes the last time that the Earth was warmer than it is now, when hippopotamuses and elephants wandered around the future Trafalgar Square.

I have been watching a movie about Mongolia recently and they were casually showing carving on rocks with hippopotamus on them, that was 10.000 years ago (~0,4°c) !!!?

TerryM

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1505
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #86 on: June 11, 2016, 11:57:00 PM »
I have been watching a movie about Mongolia recently and they were casually showing carving on rocks with hippopotamus on them, that was 10.000 years ago (~0,4°c) !!!?


Wow, just WOW!


Do you recall the name of the movie, the location of the petroglyphs, or any url where more could be learned?
A friend discovered walls of petroglyphs in Nevada, but the most exciting one only showed a mammoth. A hippo at that latitude is HUGE!!


Thanks
Terry

Laurent

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2519
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #87 on: June 12, 2016, 10:40:20 AM »
Sorry Terry, it was a few months ago, I think it was on arte.tv. I have been trying to find some image today but I see nothing alike, there is plenty of carvings like this ones http://flickrhivemind.net/Tags/bichigtkhad/Interesting showing gazelles, elephants, leopards but I can't find the same.

TerryM

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1505
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #88 on: June 12, 2016, 04:16:55 PM »
Laurent
Thanks for the effort & the url.
I've found ancient art depicting conditions far different from what is now normal to be fascinating. Mammoths in the Mojave desert, crocodiles & hippos in the middle of the Sahara.
What will people thousands of years from now make of representations of musk ox, polar bears and arctic foxes?
Terry

Milret2

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 27
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #89 on: June 12, 2016, 09:29:59 PM »
Terry, this pessimist wonders "WHATpeople thousands of years from now".

TerryM

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1505
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #90 on: June 13, 2016, 01:47:13 AM »
Terry, this pessimist wonders "WHATpeople thousands of years from now".
Who knows? The Polynesians have a history of long distance travels on very short notice, a few of them might make the cut, & some Dene people walked from sub arctic Canada to Arizona - and thrived in desert conditions.
Some come from very hardy stock!
Terry

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11500
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #91 on: June 13, 2016, 11:15:22 AM »
Some come from very hardy stock!


Terry,
While personally I very much agree with you that some hardy types will likely survive; nevertheless, the linked article discusses possible updates to the Drake Equation; and indicates that one of the reasons that we have not yet detected any SETI signals is because advanced civilizations (around the universe) are susceptible to annihilation from catastrophic climate change: 

http://www.space.com/32711-searching-for-alien-life-are-we-alone.html

Extract: "Drake's equation, for example includes the variable L, which stands for "the length of time such [technologically advanced] civilizations release detectable signals into space," according to the SETI Institute. When Drake wrote his equation in the 1960s, the value for L was thought of as the time between when a civilization discovered atomic energy and when that society managed to destroy itself through nuclear annihilation, Stanley said. "That's a totally reasonable way to think about the length of time of a civilization at the height of the Cold War," he said. "But there's been recent work … arguing that we shouldn't think about 'L' in terms of nuclear war. We should think about it in terms of environmental destruction. … That is, it's the time between the discovery of a steam engine and catastrophic climate change." "

Best,
ASLR ;)
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1856
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #92 on: June 13, 2016, 02:56:02 PM »
But it wouldn't be necessary for that catastrophic climate change to drive intelligent species to extinction. It only needs to put them back into the stone age. Our advanced civilization is not going to withstand the multiple catastrophes hurtling towards us. I still believe humanity will survive although 7 billion of us will be winnowed away.

be cause

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 150
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #93 on: June 13, 2016, 03:04:09 PM »
I would suggest the evidence is growing that we are not an intelligent species nor is this an advanced civilization .
                 B.C.
be the cause of only good
and love all beings as you should
and the 'God' of all Creation
will .. through you .. transform all nations :)


Tor Bejnar

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1207
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #95 on: July 21, 2016, 02:47:57 PM »
That is a cool little video, philiponfire!  Just a brainstorm, but if lightening struck the ground right there, there could be a tremendous boom.  (Well, a tremendous secondary boom!)  How deep would the explosion go?  Lightening strikes on beach sand certainly go down a ways (sometimes creating fulgurites).

Edit: the above image is a fake.  The following is real.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2016, 03:22:12 PM by Tor Bejnar »
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Buddy

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1687
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #96 on: July 21, 2016, 03:00:33 PM »
I would suggest the evidence is growing that we are not an intelligent species nor is this an advanced civilization .
                 B.C.

Boy.....you've got that right....FOR SURE.

Pretty amazing.  Watching some of the Republican National Convention in the United States leaves a person pretty "empty".  Not that the Democratic NC will be much better.  But....just the sight of Newt Gingrich on TV makes my skin crawl.  EGO....EGO.....EGO.  He wreaks of it.

Mankind has a LONG WAY to go.  Sure hope we make more advances in our thought processes before we destroy ourselves.....



FOX (TASS) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Ajpope85

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 14
    • View Profile
Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #97 on: May 09, 2017, 04:41:41 PM »
http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0905-7000-underground-gas-bubbles-poised-to-explode-in-arctic/

20 March 2017

Bulging bumps in the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas believed to be caused by thawing permafrost releasing methane.

Scientists have discovered as many as 7,000 gas-filled 'bubbles' expected to explode in Actic regions of Siberia after an exercise involving field expeditions and satellite surveillance, TASS reported.



The article itself is kind of light on details but has several images.