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dlen

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #100 on: November 15, 2014, 10:28:38 PM »
...
What happens then? The price of fossil fuels should drop precipitously, given that a lot of demand will disappear. Imagine oil back at $30 a barrel. All those third world countries that today are limited in their growth by high energy prices will soak all that oil and use it dirtily, based on market forces.
...


There is an argument, that this will not happen , at least not so drastically, and this is more or less given by Hugo Bardi. (http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.de/2014/11/the-crash-of-oil-prices-and-european.html) Look at the image:

The new oil resources are more and more expensive. They act as a price buffer, because when oil price falls, also a part of the production ceases on grounds of profitability.

Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #101 on: November 19, 2014, 06:44:04 PM »
China just made a huge announcement:
The Chinese government announced Wednesday it would cap coal use by 2020. The Chinese State Council, or cabinet, said the peak would be 4.2 billion tonnes, a one-sixth increase over current consumption.

This is a staggering reversal of Chinese energy policy, which for two decades has been centered around building a coal plant or more a week. Now they’ll be building the equivalent in carbon-free power every week for decades, while the construction rate of new coal plants decelerates like a crash-test dummy.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/11/19/3593567/china-climate-target-peak-coal-2020/
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wili

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #102 on: November 19, 2014, 06:59:14 PM »
Great minds...

I just posted this on the 'Coal' thread, but it's probably more appropriate here.

I would think that achieving this goal would make it easier to reach the over-all CO2 emissions peak well before the 2030 goal they pledged themselves to recently.

If China really becomes something of a leader on this, perhaps they can apply pressure on others, such as India, Canada and Australia...??
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #103 on: November 19, 2014, 08:02:31 PM »
...think alike.  :-)

I am heartened that it seems much has been happening, "in secret", to reach new agreements.  The situation may not be quite as dire as it appears, politically.

Canada is breaking ranks with Australia over the Green Climate Fund:
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/17/canada-breaks-with-australia-contribute-green-climate-fund?CMP=share_btn_tw

If the climate conversation shrugs at China, now, and focusses more of its ire on Australia, I'd say something's gotta give Down Under.

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viddaloo

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #104 on: November 20, 2014, 02:03:24 AM »
China just made a huge announcement:
The Chinese government announced Wednesday it would cap coal use by 2020. The Chinese State Council, or cabinet, said the peak would be 4.2 billion tonnes, a one-sixth increase over current consumption.

This is a staggering reversal of Chinese energy policy, which for two decades has been centered around building a coal plant or more a week. Now they’ll be building the equivalent in carbon-free power every week for decades, while the construction rate of new coal plants decelerates like a crash-test dummy.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/11/19/3593567/china-climate-target-peak-coal-2020/


Heartening. Bit like a heavy smoker who really needs to quit *yesterday*, but who wows to start smoking more and more until 2030, when his smoking will be reduced (probably due to his early death). The irony is that in the real–world allegory, everyone seems to think that this smoker is doing a *GREAT* job to quit the habit. Gotta love the Wise Ape :)
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sidd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #105 on: November 20, 2014, 05:19:23 AM »
The Chinese announcements are significant. Standing Committee announced the deal with USA. This new announcement was made by the State Council, (these guys are the bureaucracy, of course very tightly interlocked with the Standing Committee.) This tells me that both the Standing Committee and the State Council have the unity and confidence to set markers on both peak coal use and, more important, timing of peak coal use.

The People's Daily has this to say:

" Installed nuclear power capacity will reach 58 gigawatts and that under construction will top 30 gigawatts by 2020.

Installed capacity of hydro-, wind and solar power is expected to stand at 350 gigawatts, 200 gigawatts and 100 gigawatts, respectively."

Bear in mind that China has repeatedly smashed wind and solar targets in the past.

The got smart people. They will go after load management next, turn up a hundred million thermostats at a time by half a degree in summer peaking load, and they can do it too. Too juicy a target not to.

sidd

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #106 on: November 20, 2014, 09:11:23 AM »
And I have a feeling they will start to make a big move in EVs.  They're already building small scale. Autos are both something they need domestically and a lucrative business throughout Asia and the rest of the world.

China has the cash to build massive battery factories along the lines of Tesla, but more of them and bring battery prices down very rapidly.  For China that would mean new sources of income, cuts in oil imports, and progress on climate change.

China understands electric personal transportation.  China has around 200 million electric bikes on its road.  EVs are just a scale up to four wheels and a roof over your head. 

I wouldn't be surprised it China takes the <$25k EV market away from traditional car makers.  They'll start out on their own roads, work out the design details, and then under price others with very large economies of scale.



jbatteen

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #107 on: November 20, 2014, 10:13:22 PM »
Wow!  200 million electric bikes!  I'm off to go Googling, but if you have any particular links you'd like to share about China and electric bikes I'd love to read them.  I ditched the car and have been riding a Chinese electric bicycle, made by Currie, and it's pretty much the greatest thing ever.  Very much unlike many other garbage Chinese engineered products, this thing works fantastic.  I wish they would catch on in America like they have in China.  In terms of watt-hours per mile, I don't think there's any more efficient form of powered transportation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #108 on: November 21, 2014, 05:21:21 PM »
Bloomberg article on the huge energy investment China needs to make, and the environmental considerations spurring it on.

Protests over pollution at least three times this summer turned violent in Chinese cities. In Hangzhou, in the eastern part of the country, rioters overturned cars and set fire to police vehicles in May because of plans to build a waste incinerator near a residential neighborhood.

In the weeks leading up to last week’s APEC summit, China closed factories and limited traffic in Beijing so the air wouldn’t be offensive to visiting dignitaries. In the capital, 141 enterprises were asked to cut production from Nov. 3 to Nov. 11, according to the Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau. Xinhua News Agency said limits were placed on 3,900 plants in Hebei province and 1,953 firms in Tianjin city.

A government previously focused on growth at all costs has suddenly become sensitive to its environmental challenges, activists say.

‘Social Discontent’

Smog in Beijing and Shanghai made the authorities “realize that it has to take measures to rein in pollution, otherwise it will cause social discontent,” said Li Shuo, a climate policy researcher at Greenpeace East Asia. “Health is of immediate concern to everyone.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-21/latest-china-revolution-seeks-great-leap-for-clean-energy.html
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Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #109 on: November 22, 2014, 12:06:54 AM »
A government previously focused on growth at all costs has suddenly become sensitive to its environmental challenges, activists say.

This is a forcing factor unrecognized by many who predict the rate of coal replacement by renewables.  Once people understand that they could be living with clear air without paying more for electricity they are going to demand an end to coal.


sofouuk

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #110 on: November 23, 2014, 01:52:31 PM »
Wow!  200 million electric bikes!  I'm off to go Googling
motorcycles are banned in many chinese cities, cars are too expensive for most urban residents, cycling is uncomfortable in hot and humid summers, and public transport is 'crowded'. so ...

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #111 on: November 25, 2014, 06:44:01 PM »
Another sign China is becoming more health-conscious.  About breathing, anyway.

After signing, in 2003, the World Health Organization’s framework convention on tobacco control, which requires a “comprehensive ban on all tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship,” China may now be ready to act.

Draft legislation has been published on the State Council’s website, presumably for public comment. A proposed ban would prohibit smoking in indoor public places and “outdoor living spaces” in schools, colleges, women’s and children’s hospitals, and fitness venues. Smoking outdoors would be allowed only in designated areas. The proposed legislation also bans the sale of cigarettes to minors through vending machines and would eliminate some smoking scenes from movies and TV shows.

One reason for China’s delay in adopting stricter prohibitions on tobacco advertising and smoking is that the government raked in nearly $132 billion from tobacco sales last year.

http://247wallst.com/consumer-products/2014/11/25/china-moves-to-cut-smoking-cigarette-advertising/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #112 on: November 26, 2014, 03:34:11 AM »
China plans to start a nationwide carbon market in the next two years following a pledge to cap emissions by 2030.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-25/china-plans-national-carbon-market-by-2016-amid-emission-pledge.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #113 on: December 10, 2014, 03:26:13 AM »
Chinese smartphone maker unveils home air purifier.
Today, Lei responded by unveiling a home air purifier that sends pollution readings to mobile phones and alerts users when its filter’s dirty.
...
Air purifiers are a must-have home appliance in Beijing and elsewhere in northern China, where smog levels have rebounded after a government-ordered break in factory production during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum early last month. Chinese President Xi Jinping said the country was making an unprecedented effort to clean up pollution.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-09/xiaomi-unveils-air-purifier-amid-worries-about-china-s-pollution.html
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Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #114 on: December 10, 2014, 03:59:51 AM »
Air pollution is going to be an additional driver in China and India.  People in those countries have suffered from coal and oil fumes for decades.  Once citizens fully realize that they don't need to live with crappy air they will put a lot of pressure on their governments to fix the problems.

There are plenty of Indians who experienced Agra before and after they moved most of the polluting plants away from the city in order to protect the Taj and the tourist business.  That air clean up meant that some other part of the state was made worse, which is a bit harder to justify.  Many people will have a strong 'clean it up' attitude when it can be done without harming others.

Neven

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #115 on: December 10, 2014, 09:38:27 AM »
Many people will have a strong 'clean it up' attitude when it can be done without harming others.

Many people also have a strong 'clean it up' attitude, even when it harms others. They just don't want to know about it.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #116 on: December 10, 2014, 07:09:13 PM »
That's true.  But when I talked with people living in Agra who were enjoying their cleaner air they were very aware that they had only taken their problem and shoved it off on others.

Now that we have the technology to eliminate coal (and petroleum for personal transportation) India and China can actually clean their air rather than exporting the pollution.

Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #117 on: December 11, 2014, 09:54:15 PM »
For life!
China’s Former Energy Chief Gets Life in Prison for Bribery

The former head of China’s energy agency was sentenced to life imprisonment for taking 36 million yuan ($5.8 million) in bribes to approve projects, a Chinese court said.
...
One case involved the son receiving a Nissan Teana as a gift after his father approved a heavy-polluting chemical plant in the eastern Chinese city of Ningbo.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-10/china-s-former-energy-chief-jailed-for-life-for-decade-of-bribes.html
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wili

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #118 on: December 23, 2014, 07:22:01 PM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vvr8AjT0aD0

Oh, I guess that's "to life" not "for life"  ;D

Back to China:

China Coal Use Can Peak this Decade: What Did the IEA Miss?

   
The International Energy Agency (IEA) published its annual Medium-Term Coal Market Report yesterday, with a lot of attention devoted to proffering the notion that China’s coal consumption will continue to grow until the end of this decade, despite a dramatic slowdown this year, and ambitious new energy and climate targets. A thorough analysis of Chinese energy trends and targets suggests that coal peak requires action but is much more achievable than the IEA made it seem.
    An analysis of the IEA’s calculations suggests they may be a very bullish outlook for the world’s most polluting form of energy based on data from the world’s largest coal companies.

    In its annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) the IEA has now adjusted its central forecast for China’s coal use downwards twice; driven by significant growth in renewable energy installation targets, the rapid acceleration of gas imports and a materially lower assumption for China’s gross domestic product growth.

    The latest edition (from November) anticipates 1.3% annual growth from 2012 to 2020 but even this scenario does not achieve a CO2 peak by 2030, a target that China recently committed to – so it will probably need to be adjusted again.

    But when it looks at the coal market in particular the IEA comes up with different figures. The Coal Market Report suggested growth in China’s coal use would be twice as fast as that predicted in the World Energy Outlook – just a month earlier.

    The IEA predicts that coal consumption will grow from 2013 to 2019 at 2.5% a year. Taking into account the probable fall in coal consumption this year that means coal use would have to grow at over 3% per year from 2015 – almost three times the rate predicted in the IEA’s own World Energy Outlook.

    This rate of growth would make it impossible to contain global warming, as rapid China CO2 emission growth would make peaking global CO2 emissions impossible.



    In summary: The four energy trends driving down China's coal demand

    Recent changes in China’s energy landscape are nothing short of a revolution, with 2014 set to mark the first annual drop in China’s coal consumption and possibly CO2 emissions this century.

    China has committed to a set of ambitious targets and actions that significantly diversify the Chinese electricity sector, building energy security and curbing both coal use and CO2 emissions much more than the IEA’s forecasts and China’s own proposed coal target for 2020 would imply. There are four very important trends underlying the slowdown and eventual peak:

    1) Consumption outside the power sector is likely to continue to decline after 2014, due to structural shift in the economy, and substitution by electricity and gas

    2) Non-fossil energy targets imply very significant expansion of CO2-free power generation, currently dominated by hydropower but with new renewable sources set to gain importance

    3) Efficiency of both thermal power plants and industrial processes continues to improve at a significant rate

    4) Coal to gas, coal to oil and other coal chemical conversion projects will not be realized at anywhere near the scale that the coal industry hoped and environmentalists feared, eliminating the largest potential source of new demand

    For the Chinese government, setting targets for coal use and CO2 emissions that consolidate China’s actual level of ambition would be important for coordinating domestic and global efforts. In the meanwhile, it is important for the rest of the world to pay attention to the totality of the market trends and government actions in China.


http://theenergycollective.com/lauri-myllyvirta/2174746/china-coal-use-can-peak-decade-what-did-iea-miss?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=The+Energy+Collective+%28all+posts%29

Of course, wrt point #3 above, efficiency does not always lead to decreased total use of energy, and has often perversely lead to higher use--Jevons Paradox and all that. Real reductions in energy use will depend on well thought out and implemented policies, not just industrial efficiency.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #119 on: December 23, 2014, 07:51:05 PM »
Jevons Paradox is often misapplied.

First, is there any indication that electricity is being unused due to cost?  In most cases, no.  There may be a few cases of people turning off the lights when they leave a room but that does not mean that if the price of electricity goes down 10% they will start leaving them on. 

There may be a few people who will heat/cool their houses a bit more if electricity becomes more affordable.  But people aren't going to buy a few more TVs and turn them on all at the same time.  Or put two or three refrigerators in their kitchens.

Efficiency has a ratcheting effect.  Once you install LEDs, get a more efficient heat pump, put a occupation sensor on your kid's room, etc. you aren't likely to walk those actions back due to cheaper electricity.

Neven

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #120 on: December 23, 2014, 11:27:24 PM »
But what to do with the money saved? Buy an extra iPad, or go to Bangkok for a week?Choices, choices...  ;D
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Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #121 on: December 24, 2014, 02:09:34 AM »
Invest it for retirement?  Use it to help others?

SATire

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #122 on: December 24, 2014, 02:01:53 PM »
Mary Christmess ;-)

Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #123 on: December 30, 2014, 02:48:31 AM »
Amidst a slowing economy, competition and supply gluts, and pollution concerns, China plans to move 11% of its steel manufacturing to South Africa.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-29/welcome-to-the-era-of-chinese-outsourcing
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JimD

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #124 on: January 02, 2015, 05:36:04 PM »
Amidst a slowing economy, competition and supply gluts, and pollution concerns, China plans to move 11% of its steel manufacturing to South Africa.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-29/welcome-to-the-era-of-chinese-outsourcing


To reinforce a bit of what is happening that is described in the above article.  Some have pointed out the positive aspect of China starting to rein in pollution just like the US and the Europeans did some time ago.  This is marked as a sign of progress.  But there is another way to look at this situation.  When the US instituted much stronger environmental regulations on US companies that event was one of the factors used in the justification of globalization.  The end result was not lessor global pollution just less pollution in the US.  Now that China has started to reach the tolerance or its citizens to intense pollution their companies are following the US model and off shoring a part of their production to a place desperate for economic development and which will ignore pollution concerns for some time.  Thus we might see less pollution in China but there is not likely to be less pollution on a global basis. 
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Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #125 on: January 02, 2015, 08:00:12 PM »
Amidst a slowing economy, competition and supply gluts, and pollution concerns, China plans to move 11% of its steel manufacturing to South Africa.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-29/welcome-to-the-era-of-chinese-outsourcing


To reinforce a bit of what is happening that is described in the above article.  Some have pointed out the positive aspect of China starting to rein in pollution just like the US and the Europeans did some time ago.  This is marked as a sign of progress.  But there is another way to look at this situation.  When the US instituted much stronger environmental regulations on US companies that event was one of the factors used in the justification of globalization.  The end result was not lessor global pollution just less pollution in the US.  Now that China has started to reach the tolerance or its citizens to intense pollution their companies are following the US model and off shoring a part of their production to a place desperate for economic development and which will ignore pollution concerns for some time.  Thus we might see less pollution in China but there is not likely to be less pollution on a global basis.


It seems like you're predicting industry will flee China in search of places where they can burn cheap fossil fuels. 

Cheap wind and solar did not exist when the US started cracking down on pollution.  These are different times.  Wind and solar are cheaper than new the coal that someone would have to build in a different country.  China has lots of hydro to fill in around wind and solar.


Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #126 on: January 07, 2015, 04:09:05 PM »
This article is primarily about how lower commodity prices are driving South American countries to destroy more and more of their land as income dries up.  But China's loans and purchases play a big role.
“Price declines and slower growth make nations more desperate, and they can be more apt to weakening environmental standards in order to grab at any investment,” said Gallagher, who is the co-author of The Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin American Industrialisation.

When prices fall, “countries and investors seeking bargain-basement prices swoop into the Amazon”, he said. “We can expect to see a surge in Chinese investment in the Amazon in this manner in years to come.”

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/06/commodities-latin-america-amazon-deforestation
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Laurent

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #127 on: January 13, 2015, 09:44:23 AM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #128 on: January 14, 2015, 04:08:46 PM »
China relaxes its one-child policy. Less than 10 % of potential parents want to take advantage of it.

Two kids? Thanks but no say some Chinese
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/01/13/china/china-one-child-policy/index.html
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #129 on: January 16, 2015, 04:49:42 PM »
The linked article (and associated image) indicates that no matter how hard the Chinese Technocrats work to fight air pollution, the air quality index, AQI, in Beijing remains off the chart:

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2015/01/beijing-airpocolypse-beyond-index-hazardous-smog
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #130 on: January 20, 2015, 03:34:10 PM »
China's economy is slowing, with increasing emphasis on services and less on manufacturing.
President Xi Jinping is pushing pro-market policies to boost new economic drivers as China enters a “new normal,” a phrase he has adopted to reflect slower, more-sustainable expansion.
...
A commentary by state-run Xinhua News Agency said it was unsurprising that China’s “miraculous, break-neck growth is over” and that people should “get over it.” Much of the pain was self-inflicted by a government pushing ahead with market-driven change on all fronts, it said.

Secondary industry -- made up of activities including manufacturing and construction -- contributed 3 percentage point to growth, compared with 3.8 percentage point from services, “reflecting an undergoing structural change,” said Liu Li-Gang, head of Greater China economics at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-19/china-gdp-beats-estimates-leaving-2014-expansion-close-to-target.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #131 on: January 20, 2015, 07:36:17 PM »
BEIJING, Jan 20 (Reuters) - China beat a key energy efficiency target in 2014, cutting its energy intensity by 4.8 percent from a year earlier, the State Council said on Tuesday, as it tries to reduce pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.

The government had aimed for a 3.9 percent cut in energy intensity after a 3.7 percent drop in 2013 in order to meet its target of cutting energy intensity to 16 percent below 2010 levels by 2015.

Energy intensity is a measure of the amount of energy needed to increase GDP, and high levels of energy intensity indicate a high cost of converting energy into GDP.

China aims to lower the efficiency measure by relying less on energy-intensive manufacturing, mostly powered by coal, which is causing massive health problems and has made China the world's biggest emitter of climate-changing greenhouse gases.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL4N0UZ1QJ20150120
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #132 on: January 22, 2015, 04:59:55 PM »
The linked article provides new evidence of China's interest in exploiting Antarctica's minerals despite an international agreement preventing it:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-20/chinas-desire-for-antarctic-mining-despite-international-ban/6029414

Furthermore, I would like to note that China is currently exporting some of its manufacturing capital to open new factories in less developed countries with lower labor costs; while stimulating domestic consumption by a policy of quantitative easing.

These trends will serve to help keep the world on a BAU pathway for decades to come.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #133 on: January 24, 2015, 04:23:00 PM »
I am a fan of the phrase, "It is perfectly acceptable to use fossil fuels to help wean yourself off of fossil fuels."

Is it possible to make an argument that moving manufacturing to less developed countries will, in the long run, provide the resources rich and poor countries alike need if we are to move the entire world to a greener way of life?

Just asking.   :)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #134 on: January 24, 2015, 05:58:23 PM »
I am a fan of the phrase, "It is perfectly acceptable to use fossil fuels to help wean yourself off of fossil fuels."

Is it possible to make an argument that moving manufacturing to less developed countries will, in the long run, provide the resources rich and poor countries alike need if we are to move the entire world to a greener way of life?

Just asking.   :)

Sigmetnow,

I believe that it would be much easier to concur with your hypothesis if it was implemented beginning in the 70's, 80's, or even in the 90's; however, now as the Brookings Institute has projected that from 2010 to 2030 the worldwide population of middle-class will increase from 1.9 Billion to 4.7 Billion, I believe that using fossil fuel to make this great leap forward of the middle-class population will push the world so far beyond the 2 C temperature increase threshold that we will be activating/simulating so many positive feedback mechanisms that even if we wean society largely off fossil fuels by 2050 (which does not sound realistic to me) then the increase in effective climate sensitivity will off-set any anthropogenic reductions in GHG emissions, leaving the world moving (possibly more slowly) towards a climate change crisis.

I may concur that the best why to control future population growth is by spreading education and providing for basic human needs (particularly for women), but the world is likely already committed (possibly because the 1st world did not adequately engage the 3rd world early enough) to a world population of around 10 Billion by 2050; so even if we stabilize the world population around that level (say by using fossil fuel to stimulate economic growth in developing countries) we need to realize that there is only one Earth* and its carrying capacity is limited.

Best,
ASLR

*: Even if China wants to develop the last untouched continent of Antarctica and Elon Musk wants to develop Mars, and both China and the USA are actively planning to develop the Moon; in my eyes these are all acts of desperate minds, and that the resources required to implement such desperate plans will put an even greater burden on Earth's biosphere.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2015, 06:04:41 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #135 on: January 24, 2015, 06:19:15 PM »
Sorry, I should have decoupled "fossil fuels" from "manufacturing" more clearly in my comment.  ;-)

Why I think remote manufacturing could be part of a solution is: businesses would need to build new facilities in those poor countries.  They will need to build new infrastructure, and they would be crazy to build-in a dependence on fossil fuels, today.  A new factory, powered by renewables, could improve the living standards of the local area (and the country), and make them more able to afford other green improvements.  Meanwhile, the country that "farmed out" the factory would make a profit that they could use to better their own people.  I think it could be a win-win, if done right.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #136 on: January 24, 2015, 06:49:31 PM »
Sigmetnow,

While I concur that your logic has some merit, my problems with it include:

1. The climate change crisis is actually a crisis of a lack of human willpower.  We have known about the potential threats of climate change since at least the 1960s (when told about this threat LBJ decided that it could easily be addressed by the geoengineering means of introducing sulfates into the atmosphere so why bother helping the developing countries), and when we could have addressed the threats of climate change in the 60s for a one hundredth of the effort that it will take now, it was still too much bother for human willpower to face back then.

2.  You seem to wishfully believe that you can control the fossil fuel industry on a whim, when actually this industry dominates politics worldwide, and private industry is too disorganized to mount an effective effort without something like a carbon fee & dividend plan to steer the invisible hand of the market place in the right direction.

3. I believe that such wishful plans give decision makers an excuse to do nothing as your plan would magically work by itself and would require no effort (willpower) on their parts.  Thus we can all happily rely on the RCP 2.6 scenario to protect society because some scientists say that it is still a physical possibility, when in reality without more willpower it is just wishful thinking that will encourage decision makers to stay on a BAU pathway because they can rely on your plan to make their lives easy.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #137 on: January 24, 2015, 09:26:02 PM »
Let say China invests in manufacturing industry in India, per the linked article (see extract & attached image), this will lead to an increase in GHG emissions through at least 2040.  The climate (or doomsday) clock is ticking, and time is running out for us all to take serious (not wishful thinking) action:

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/01/briefing-india-energy-and-climate-change-challenge/

Extract: "But, despite the expected renewables boom, they are expected to only provide for about 16 per cent of India's projected energy demand in 2040 overall. Fossil fuels are projected to account for 75 per cent.

So India is planning ways to boost the low-carbon energy sector, it's just going to do it while also trying to expand its fossil fuel base. Modi's government is unabashedly technology neutral when it comes to upgrading India's archaic energy infrastructure. If a technology drives economic growth and can provide citizens with an improved standard of living, Modi is willing to exploit it, regardless of its carbon intensity.
As a consequence, India's energy-related emissions are set to more than double by 2040, the IEA suggests"
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #138 on: January 24, 2015, 10:20:16 PM »
AbruptSLR,

And yet 62%, $224 billion, of clean energy and low carbon development in 2012 was paid for by private funds, not public. (Source: World Bank).  Figures from Bloomberg New Energy Finance show that total new funds for wind, solar and other low-carbon energy technologies grew 16% to $310 billion last year.

While I completely agree that more needs to be done to encourage the transition of existing fossil fuel emitters and not simply let them "wait for someone else to do it", I also believe the plummeting cost of renewables will quickly make investing in the alternatives, going forward, as unthinkable as, say, investing in land-line telephony rather than cell phones.  Those businesses still stuck with inefficient and volatile FF sources will find it hard to compete with the newer, cheaper, cleaner model.

"Those denouncing renewable energy sources as too expensive will also have to get off their soapboxes in 2015 with Deutsche Bank predicting that solar will be at grid parity in most of the world by the end of 2017."
http://tcktcktck.org/2015/01/global-energy-transition-surges-renewables-funding-grows/65976

India does indeed look like "a tough nut to crack."  But some significant announcements are expected when President Obama visits there next week.  I feel certain it will improve the clean energy numbers projected for that country up to now!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #139 on: January 25, 2015, 04:05:30 PM »
Right direction!

Coal production in China drops for the first time in 14 years.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/coal-production-drops-china-1st-time-14-years-28445890
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #140 on: January 25, 2015, 05:01:54 PM »
India does indeed look like "a tough nut to crack."  But some significant announcements are expected when President Obama visits there next week.  I feel certain it will improve the clean energy numbers projected for that country up to now!


According to the linked article, you should not expect India to commit to a peak year for carbon emissions anytime soon (see extract below).

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/01/25/india-obama-climatechange-idINKBN0KY0F920150125

Extract: "India, the world's third largest carbon emitter, is reluctant to follow the United States and China in committing to a peak year for emissions on the grounds it needs economic growth to alleviate poverty."

Furthermore as I have pointed-out before, economists understand that it will take many decades before renewables can replace fossil fuels in developing countries like India, Indonesia and the Philippines (see attached graph); and in the meantime the world's carbon budget is going bankrupt:

Michael Jakob, Jan Christoph Steckel, Stephan Klasen, Jann Lay, Nicole Grunewald, Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, Sebastian Renner & Ottmar Edenhofer , (2014), "Feasible mitigation actions in developing countries", Nature Climate Change, Volume: 4, Pages: 961–968, doi:10.1038/nclimate2370

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n11/full/nclimate2370.html

Abstract: "Energy use is not only crucial for economic development, but is also the main driver of greenhouse-gas emissions. Developing countries can reduce emissions and thrive only if economic growth is disentangled from energy-related emissions. Although possible in theory, the required energy-system transformation would impose considerable costs on developing nations. Developed countries could bear those costs fully, but policy design should avoid a possible 'climate rent curse', that is, a negative impact of financial inflows on recipients' economies. Mitigation measures could meet further resistance because of adverse distributional impacts as well as political economy reasons. Hence, drastically re-orienting development paths towards low-carbon growth in developing countries is not very realistic. Efforts should rather focus on 'feasible mitigation actions' such as fossil-fuel subsidy reform, decentralized modern energy and fuel switching in the power sector."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #141 on: January 27, 2015, 07:05:27 PM »
Per the linked article Obama feels that India needs to do more to control emissions than it is currently willing to agree to do:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/28/world/asia/obama-ends-visit-with-challenge-to-india-on-climate-change.html?_r=0
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Laurent

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #142 on: January 27, 2015, 11:16:48 PM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #143 on: January 29, 2015, 04:16:33 PM »
Why India Will Keep Growing Faster Than China
China's authoritarian government has some advantages — for now
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-28/why-india-will-keep-growing-faster-than-china
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #144 on: February 03, 2015, 02:03:28 PM »
China’s new wind power installations reached 23.35GW in 2014, with an increase of 45.1% from 2013
http://www.evwind.es/2015/02/02/chinas-new-wind-power-installations-reached-23-35gw-in-2014-with-an-increase-of-45-1-from-2013/50281
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mati

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #145 on: February 03, 2015, 05:43:06 PM »
China's plans for nuclear has also had some changes...

By around 2040, PWRs are expected to level off at 200 GWe and fast reactors progressively increase from 2020 to at least 200 GWe by 2050 and 1400 GWe by 2100.

http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-A-F/China--Nuclear-Power/

they are planning an interesting strategy to marry different nuclear technologies in order to
recycle the fuel from PWR in Candu reactors.  with the Candu's also being able to use Thorium
in the fuel mix.

http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-A-F/China--Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/

and so it goes

Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #146 on: February 04, 2015, 05:46:27 PM »
China To Create Carbon Market And Cap Emissions
Ever since China started launching regional markets in 2013 there has been discussion about a national market, which could eventually dominate the international scene and act to both limit China’s dirty fossil fuel emissions as well as strengthen global efforts to put a price on carbon. The approach of the United Nations’ climate talks in Paris at the end of 2015, where leaders hope to reach a new global treaty, amplifies the significance of any actions toward mitigating GHGs that China takes this year.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/04/3619026/china-gets-ready-for-national-carbon-market/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #147 on: February 04, 2015, 07:57:08 PM »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #148 on: February 05, 2015, 01:15:49 AM »
The linked article indicates that China's policies are making their stressed water supply problem even worse:

http://www.rtcc.org/2015/01/14/chinas-efforts-to-ease-water-stress-failing-say-researchers/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #149 on: February 28, 2015, 01:11:55 AM »
Air pollution turned this Chinese manufacturing city into a ghost town.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-02-26/air-pollution-turned-this-chinese-city-into-a-ghost-town
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