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Author Topic: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?  (Read 25871 times)

viddaloo

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #50 on: November 06, 2014, 10:26:46 AM »
Another great takeaway quote from that same article:

STEVE RAYNER, Oxford scientist who worked on three IPCC assessment reports but not the latest one:

"A look at the author lists over the years indicates that the working groups operate as self-perpetuating clubs. They are fairly tight networks of individuals who go on from one report to the next and cite each other's work. I decided to discontinue participation in the IPCC as it really only reports incremental changes in knowledge — nothing fundamental. Furthermore, the idea that such knowledge leads to better decision making seems quite unfounded."
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viddaloo

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #51 on: November 06, 2014, 02:41:21 PM »
The methane denialists also rely on really simple models to assert their high confidence, which just smacks me of irresponsibility. Gavin Shmidt's lecture debunking "methane alarmism" was so awful, but the mainstream science community lapping it up like its gospel is even worse in my opinion. A few slanderous jokes on twitter also helped get everyone in line.

Where can this lecture be read/heard, TeaPotty?
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crandles

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #52 on: November 06, 2014, 02:57:11 PM »
Slides used are in this pdf

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/57898304/Schmidt_Arctic_impact_composition.pdf
don't know if there is video of the talk - quite possibly somewhere.


a few slanderous jokes to get people in line isn't my impression from reading about it
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzOmEySKhRVOWjUxU0k4T0ZyYlU/view
and
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzOmEySKhRVOc1prYUNLQXhoa3c/view

seems to me like there was some defense of Wadhams as well as some justified criticism also a joke or two but what stands out most clearly is Wadhams misunderstanding of the situation. In all, some disagreement but not grounds for a complaint.

viddaloo

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #53 on: November 06, 2014, 03:04:37 PM »
Yup, or maybe someone who wasn't there misunderstood the situation, and there were grounds for a complaint. When people disagree strongly, they sometimes even disagree about the level of slander and the grounds for complaint as well. Pretending to be neutral when one is strongly anti–Wadhams is a clever tactic, however, I guess.
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jai mitchell

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #54 on: November 06, 2014, 05:27:35 PM »
Slides used are in this pdf

but what stands out most clearly is Wadhams misunderstanding of the situation.

Crandles,

what is your impression of the misunderstanding?  Is it the concept that a large scale methane emission release could happen in the next 10 years, as opposed to Gavin Schmidt saying that this cannot happen?
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crandles

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #55 on: November 06, 2014, 06:18:23 PM »
The misunderstandings I was referring to was Wadhams understanding of twitter. I think the links I provided show the tweets were justified and in some cases were defending Wadhams.

On methane release, I don't pretend to be well up on the subject. I would dismiss Wadhams but am interested in Shakhova and others observations.

Conclusions like
Arctic sea ice loss will lead to significant changes
in atmospheric composition - locally & globally

Methane changes via wetlands +ve feedback

Many mechanisms still to be explored though

doesn't seem like we should completely rule out a major methane problem.

It does seem likely to be a slow process.

Large methane hydrate impact unlikely in near future

is not the same as saying it cannot happen. If there is disagreement, I want to hear both sides preferably from the relevant scientists. I am no expert on this nor well up on the topic so I doubt anything I say should mean much.


jai mitchell

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #56 on: November 06, 2014, 06:58:10 PM »
I understand, I think that the twitter issue is a clue into the underlying processes going on with this topic.  As you stated, the exclusion of Shakhova and Semilietov from the #RSarctic14 while their research was heavily referenced by Gavin Schmidt as he worked to disprove their work, is extremely telling on the issue and implies a much larger effort to "manage the message" regarding future potential climate impacts.

Shakhova's open letter to the royal society can be found here:  http://envisionation.co.uk/index.php/blogs/99-russian-scientists-excluded-from-presenting-important-research-as-nasa-goddard-director-tries-to-discredit-observational-scientific-research

With regard, to the potential, I have posted here on several occasions how very easy it is even for an untrained analyst to see how Gavin's arguments have more holes than a block of swiss cheese.

No one has, to my knowledge, considered the impacts of the rate of temperature changes that will occur in the arctic once it reaches an ice free state with 24/7 incident solar exposure, likely within the next 30 years.
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viddaloo

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #57 on: November 06, 2014, 07:45:36 PM »
No one has, to my knowledge, considered the impacts of the rate of temperature changes that will occur in the arctic once it reaches an ice free state with 24/7 incident solar exposure, likely within the next 30 years.

Excellent point, Jai. Even though I live in Scandinavia, I forget about the midnight sun. Couple that with the new findings about infrared in open water, and we have another climate bomb waiting to go off. Unlike me, the Arctic Ocean never forgets about the midnight sun.  ;D
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viddaloo

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #58 on: November 07, 2014, 09:58:35 PM »
The IPCC is stern on climate change – but it still underestimates the situation

Bill McKibben in The Guardian, Sunday 2 November 2014

As the Washington Post pointed out this week, past reports have always tried to err on the side of understatement; it’s a particular problem with sea level rise, since the current IPCC document does not even include the finding in May that the great Antarctic ice sheets have begun to melt. (The studies were published after the IPCC’s cutoff date.)

But when you get right down to it, who cares? The scientists have done their job; no sentient person, including Republican Senate candidates, can any longer believe in their heart of hearts that there’s not a problem here. The scientific method has triumphed: over a quarter of a century, researchers have reached astonishing consensus on a basic problem in chemistry and physics.

If you ask me, I don't agree they have done their job. Maybe we disagree on what their assignment was, from 1988 and onwards. In any case I don't agree that the IPCCs job was to suggest very small steps, small enough that very conservative governments could follow them, in a situation where only complete redesign of our societies would suffice. Neither do I agree that the IPCCs job was to hammer in the (dubious) message that the year 2100 is when a few minor particles of fecal matter will slowly start hitting the air circulation appliances. In the dramatic and action–filled world of the early 21st century, no–one cares about a possible 1–2 degree temperature increase 80 years down the road. So if the strategy of the IPCC was to appear measured and conservative and relatively undemanding in terms of political action, I think they failed miserably.

If that was their strategy, then it would be much wiser to just tell the truth. The real scientific truth, warts and all.

The scientific method has triumphed? I don't think so in IPCCs case. The way I see it, politics and power have triumphed over scientific integrity.
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jai mitchell

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #59 on: November 16, 2014, 08:48:03 PM »
This is interesting, I recall Gavin Schmidt stating in his #RSarctic14 presentation that the ice core analysis did not support the possibility of an imminent methane release.  Yet, as I look at this papers reconstruction of the NEEM Greenland Eemian CH4 record, I see a spike of 1500ppbv over the course of a thousand years or so.

the implications are astounding.  I simply don't see how he can justify his assertions, given the several orders of magnitude shorter warming timeframe (as compared to Eemian maximum temp rise)



paper here:  http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v493/n7433/full/nature11789.html

---------------------------
Follow up note:  in reading the associated paper and following up with the author the peak values of CH4 are attributed to folding and surface melt of the NEEM ice core data from this period, the spikes of CH4 do not indicate actual average atmosphere values.  The resolution is close (sub) 200 years for the data points.  so it is still a large timed average (for the non-melt portions).
« Last Edit: December 07, 2014, 04:30:57 AM by jai mitchell »
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Laurent

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #60 on: December 03, 2014, 09:35:34 AM »
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Synthesis Report
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-Hcu3jH8G4&feature=youtu.be

viddaloo

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #61 on: December 05, 2014, 05:18:50 PM »
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Synthesis Report
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-Hcu3jH8G4&feature=youtu.be

Thanks, Laurent. A quote from this vid:

(13:28) As the name already says, goverments are the members of the IPCC. And governments ask experts to do reports. They scope the reports together with experts. And at the end of the assessment process, adopt and approve reports. It signifies that governments agree with the scientific findings.

Well, indeed it does. Problem is the governments are a little bit too involved in the science part of it, which then later makes it easier for them to 'agree with the scientific findings'.

Fox is guarding the hen–house, so to speak.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #62 on: January 13, 2015, 06:34:17 PM »
While I do not normally post in this thread; however, the following Wadham et al 2012 paper cites the potential for large reservoirs of methane beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, WAIS; while the Pollard et al 2015 article indicates that the WAIS could substantially collapse by 2100; which if it were to occur could release large amounts of methane from the WAIS seafloor in an abrupt manner:


J. L. Wadham, S. Arndt, S. Tulaczyk, M. Stibal, M. Tranter, J. Telling, G. P. Lis, E. Lawson, A. Ridgwell, A. Dubnick, M. J. Sharp, A. M. Anesio & C. E. H. Butler (2012), "Potential methane reservoirs beneath Antarctica", Nature, 488, 633–637, doi:10.1038/nature11374

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v488/n7413/full/nature11374.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20120830

Abstract: "Once thought to be devoid of life, the ice-covered parts of Antarctica are now known to be a reservoir of metabolically active microbial cells and organic carbon. The potential for methanogenic archaea to support the degradation of organic carbon to methane beneath the ice, however, has not yet been evaluated. Large sedimentary basins containing marine sequences up to 14 kilometres thick and an estimated 21,000 petagrams (1 Pg equals 1015 g) of organic carbon are buried beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet. No data exist for rates of methanogenesis in sub-Antarctic marine sediments. Here we present experimental data from other subglacial environments that demonstrate the potential for overridden organic matter beneath glacial systems to produce methane. We also numerically simulate the accumulation of methane in Antarctic sedimentary basins using an established one-dimensional hydrate model and show that pressure/temperature conditions favour methane hydrate formation down to sediment depths of about 300 metres in West Antarctica and 700 metres in East Antarctica. Our results demonstrate the potential for methane hydrate accumulation in Antarctic sedimentary basins, where the total inventory depends on rates of organic carbon degradation and conditions at the ice-sheet bed. We calculate that the sub-Antarctic hydrate inventory could be of the same order of magnitude as that of recent estimates made for Arctic permafrost. Our findings suggest that the Antarctic Ice Sheet may be a neglected but important component of the global methane budget, with the potential to act as a positive feedback on climate warming during ice-sheet wastage."


Pollard, DeConto & Alley (2015), indicate the possibility that a possible collapse of the WAIS could substantially collapse by 2100.

Pollard, D., DeConto, R.M. and Alley, R.B., (2015), "Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Volume 412, 15 February 2015, Pages 112–121, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2014.12.035

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X14007961


Abstract: "Geological data indicate that global mean sea level has fluctuated on 103 to 106 yr time scales during the last ∼25 million years, at times reaching 20 m or more above modern. If correct, this implies substantial variations in the size of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS). However, most climate and ice sheet models have not been able to simulate significant EAIS retreat from continental size, given that atmospheric CO2 levels were relatively low throughout this period. Here, we use a continental ice sheet model to show that mechanisms based on recent observations and analysis have the potential to resolve this model–data conflict. In response to atmospheric and ocean temperatures typical of past warm periods, floating ice shelves may be drastically reduced or removed completely by increased oceanic melting, and by hydrofracturing due to surface melt draining into crevasses. Ice at deep grounding lines may be weakened by hydrofracturing and reduced buttressing, and may fail structurally if stresses exceed the ice yield strength, producing rapid retreat. Incorporating these mechanisms in our ice-sheet model accelerates the expected collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to decadal time scales, and also causes retreat into major East Antarctic subglacial basins, producing ∼17 m global sea-level rise within a few thousand years. The mechanisms are highly parameterized and should be tested by further process studies. But if accurate, they offer one explanation for past sea-level high stands, and suggest that Antarctica may be more vulnerable to warm climates than in most previous studies."
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Bruce Steele

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #63 on: January 13, 2015, 07:19:26 PM »
 one gigatonne = one petagram = 10( to the fifteenth power) grams

So if there are comparable amounts of buried organic carbon in the Arctic permafrost and the sub-Antarctic hydrate inventory then the combined inventory is about 42,000 billion tons Carbon. It would only require a very small portion of that inventory in the 1,000 gigatonnes released over the next 100 years to double down on the anthropogenic Carbon emissions  we will likely have emitted by 2050.
1,000 + 1,000 .  The 900 lb gorilla is how much buried Carbon will be released in the thousand year timeframe if BAU extends until 2100.  If we emit the 2500 gigatonnes Carbon that exists in current proven energy reserves how far into the future will the consequent heating extend into the future?
How much buried Carbon will that long term heating liberate?
I don't think the answer to either of those questions is pretty.   

viddaloo

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #64 on: January 23, 2015, 11:33:04 PM »
The political mandate [of the IPCC] was essentially to ignore 90% or more of the response.
  >:(

Dr Thomas Goreau on Radio Ecoshock, January 21st 2015.
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Laurent

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #65 on: February 27, 2015, 09:29:00 PM »
Survivable IPCC projections are based on science fiction - the reality is much worse
http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/2772427/survivable_ipcc_projections_are_based_on_science_fiction_the_reality_is_much_worse.html

The IPCC's 'Representative Concentration Pathways' are based on fantasy technology that must draw massive volumes of CO2 out of the atmosphere late this century, writes Nick Breeze - an unjustified hope that conceals a very bleak future for Earth, and humanity.


"10 billion tonnes a year of carbon sequestration? We don't do anything on this planet on that scale. We don't manufacture food on that scale, we don't mine iron ore on that scale. We don't even produce coal, oil or gas on that scale. Iron ore is below a billion tonnes a year! How are we going to create a technology, from scratch, a highly complicated technology, to the tune of 10 billion tonnes a year in the next 10 years?"


I am tired of saying "wake up people" so have a good night, sleep well !
« Last Edit: February 27, 2015, 09:46:26 PM by Laurent »

viddaloo

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #66 on: February 27, 2015, 10:10:51 PM »
I am tired of saying "wake up people" so have a good night, sleep well !

Thanks, Laurent, I just have!  ;D I also appreciate your variation instead of just repeating this old cliché. Sleep is also grossly underrated, both for your health and as a source of entertainment!

Once again, our worst nightmares are *confirmed*, not falsified, by further research.
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wili

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #67 on: February 27, 2015, 11:21:59 PM »
""10 billion tonnes a year of carbon sequestration? We don't do anything on this planet on that scale. We don't manufacture food on that scale, we don't mine iron ore on that scale.

We don't even produce coal, oil or gas on that scale."

WRT the last statement--perhaps not individually, but by definition we must be extracting at least 10 billion tonnes of those fossil fuels as a whole every year, since that is about the amount (in carbon) that we are spewing into the air every year.

That nit-picky point doesn't really take away from the overall excellent thrust of the argument here, though.

We are so far away from having any type of tech at anything like that level that it might as well be called a pure fantasy. Yet these technologies are just taken for granted. These are points make also in most of Kevin Anderson's recent videos and statements. (And I see they have him on the excellent video included in the piece saying much the same thing.)
« Last Edit: February 28, 2015, 12:20:16 AM by wili »
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sidd

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #68 on: February 28, 2015, 05:42:34 AM »
There is exactly one thing we do on that scale: appropriate natural Net Primary Production

Woorld NPP is on the order of 200 gigaton, humans appropriate about 20% (some say 40), so 40 gigaton.

Foodgrain production is about 2-2.5 gigaton

JMP

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #69 on: February 28, 2015, 05:51:26 AM »
we must be extracting at least 10 billion tonnes of those fossil fuels as a whole every year, since that is about the amount (in carbon) that we are spewing into the air every year.


Someone once pointed out to me that even though burning stuff seems like a destructive process that one carbon of course combines with 2 oxygen and so there is more.  It seems incredible I know but the carbon dioxide produced weighs almost twice the coal they start with.


I think this explains it: http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=82&t=11
« Last Edit: February 28, 2015, 06:03:54 AM by JMP »

wili

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #70 on: February 28, 2015, 06:26:57 AM »
Good point. In the video, though, after looking at it again, I see that he actually seems to be talking about 10 billion tons of CO2 (contrary to what I implied above).
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

JMP

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #71 on: February 28, 2015, 07:03:06 AM »
He seems to be IS  talking about negative sequestration too.    So, if we burn almost 6 tonnes of fossil fuels which produce about 10 tonnes of CO2 we'll somehow be able to not only sequester all that CO2, all that! but an additional significant fraction as well?   

That sounds quite impossible even with geo engineering - against the laws of physics  - even in theory.

[It just adds more on top of what was already alarming.  In the video he's saying the significant fraction is 20 or say 10 billion tonnes of 35 billion tonnes of CO2 per year - while I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt as to the general point - I would really like these numbers all pinned down to some facts - considering.]



« Last Edit: February 28, 2015, 07:25:07 AM by JMP »

silkman

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #72 on: February 28, 2015, 09:55:48 AM »
JMP, if you take an atom of carbon (atomic weight 12)  and oxidise it to carbon dioxide (molecular weight 12 + 16 x 2 = 44) the increase is a factor of  3.666. Or inversely to convert a given mass of CO2 to the mass of its carbon content you multiply by 0.2727.

A kilogram of coal, if we assume it is 100% carbon, therefore generates more than 3.5 times the weight of the greenhouse gas. The factor is somewhat lower for hydrocarbons as the hydrogen component is oxidised to water on combustion.

jai mitchell

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #73 on: March 01, 2015, 02:30:41 AM »
Silk,

Burning coal produces a significant amount of ash, a good rule of thumb is that the weight of carbon dioxide emissions from burning coal is 150% of the original coal weight.
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jai mitchell

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #74 on: March 01, 2015, 02:33:06 AM »
anthropogenic CO2 emissions are currently around 38.5 billion tons.  some 45% of this typically remains in the earths atmosphere after a full year.
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JMP

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #75 on: March 03, 2015, 09:15:31 AM »
JMP, if you take an atom of carbon (atomic weight 12)  and oxidise it to carbon dioxide (molecular weight 12 + 16 x 2 = 44) the increase is a factor of  3.666. Or inversely to convert a given mass of CO2 to the mass of its carbon content you multiply by 0.2727.

A kilogram of coal, if we assume it is 100% carbon, therefore generates more than 3.5 times the weight of the greenhouse gas. The factor is somewhat lower for hydrocarbons as the hydrogen component is oxidised to water on combustion.

Yes.  Of course coal isn't all carbon though, and therefore the sentence from the link I posted:  "The carbon dioxide emissions from burning a short ton of subbituminous coal are approximately 3,740 pounds, or about 3.67 times the weight of the carbon in a short ton of coal, and 1.87 times the weight of a short ton of coal." 

At one point I did what you did and then edited / reduced it for accuracy.   

The main point though is that by weight - burning it makes significantly more not less.  Then...  the energy one gets from the doing, the burning, the combining, would seem to me to be insignificantly grater than what it would take for the undoing, the capture, the sequestration... if greater at all.  Those are the numbers that need to be pinned down.  And, when one piles upon that the idea that there will be negative emissions? 

Lighting a candle while sealed indoors is barely noticeable but if you've ever been indoors when a fireplace was lit and the flu was closed... that is an altogether different animal.  Obviously CO2 doesn't merely weigh more.  The results of combustion seem to me to be the genie released from the bottle although completely unmagical.  And, the law of conservation of energy isn't going to bend to wishful thinking - so I'm extremely doubtful that carbon sequestration can ever be viably significant much less negative.

JMP

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #76 on: March 03, 2015, 09:53:18 AM »
anthropogenic CO2 emissions are currently around 38.5 billion tons.  some 45% of this typically remains in the earths atmosphere after a full year.


Thank you for this figure.   (the rest is more rhetorical and not directed at you - thanks again)

So... Lets say that the IPCC wants all this removed plus an additional 10 billion tons of CO2 each year removed also.  Firstly is the future goal of removing the around 38.5 billion tons or reducing emissions to zero realistic? Is removing an additional amount (say even 10 billion tons) realistic? 

To me this is just crazy-talk, beyond the concept of vapor-ware - it seems against the laws of physics, but what do I know?  Maybe there is an app? or the sheer economic need will result in a solution? If there are some facts to support that these miracles may yet be accomplished somebody please clue me in! 

The stakes here would seem to be too great. 

Stumbled upon this, but it doesn't go far enough - barely supports what I'm saying and I prefer something to refute my questions.  http://www.kurzweilai.net/mit-scientists-question-effectiveness-of-sequestration-of-carbon-dioxide



LRC1962

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #77 on: March 03, 2015, 12:10:49 PM »
Tongue in cheek. Easy low tech solution.Stop all fossil fuel production. Grow (based on 5 ton of dry hemp /arce/growing season (ideal may get you 3 crops/yr.) say 4.4 billion acres bury it in mines and pits for the next 40 yrs. problem solved. Need to combine it with lime to prevent microbes of spoiling all your hard work.
Now of course you need to grow far more to replace all those hydrocarbons you need to keep economy working and growing and burying hemp. Now where are you going to get all that land that can produce at those levels? Oooops forgot all that methane and CO2 that is already going to be released because that train has lllong gone.
BTW never could figure out the sequester idea. If you take out 10 gt/yr of carbon, just to balance the books , you need to bury 10gt of carbon/yr. That does not include all the energy to bury that carbon. Yup someone flunked physics to get that idea and anyone who actually buys into that idea.
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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #78 on: March 05, 2015, 07:43:52 PM »
1) Why is this thread under 'Permafrost'?

2) Joe Fromm was just on MPR talking about climate communication. His takeaway quote was:

"The IPCC is and unmitigated catastrophe." wrt their total inability to communicate important messages effectively.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #79 on: March 05, 2015, 07:50:59 PM »
1) Why is this thread under 'Permafrost'?

The IPCC's capital crime was lying about methane hydrates. We'll never forgive them, always remember.
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jai mitchell

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #80 on: March 06, 2015, 03:00:50 AM »
1) Why is this thread under 'Permafrost'?

The IPCC's capital crime was lying about methane hydrates. We'll never forgive them, always remember.

Refresh our memories? do you mind?
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jai mitchell

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #81 on: March 06, 2015, 03:04:00 AM »
1) Why is this thread under 'Permafrost'?

2) Joe Fromm was just on MPR talking about climate communication. His takeaway quote was:

"The IPCC is and unmitigated catastrophe." wrt their total inability to communicate important messages effectively.

do you mean "npr"?  do you have a link to the interview, this sounds interesting
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wili

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #82 on: March 06, 2015, 04:50:00 PM »
Sorry. No, it's our local affiliate Minnesota Public Radio:

http://www.mprnews.org/topic/mpr-news-presents
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

viddaloo

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #83 on: March 07, 2015, 09:18:09 PM »
2) Joe Fromm was just on MPR talking about climate communication. His takeaway quote was:

"The IPCC is and unmitigated catastrophe." wrt their total inability to communicate important messages effectively.

I'd have to disagree with Mr Fromm. It's not the communication, it's the message. Forests can't burn, methane will be safe for millennia. Message received, loud and clear, but it's a lie, and it's not what we were told the Panel was supposed to do.

IPCC is now the 'Nanny Panel', as I've already mentioned. Singing lullabies and reassuring us that everything is going to be just fine. It isn't, and the lying Panel is an important reason why not.
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viddaloo

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #84 on: March 07, 2015, 09:30:57 PM »
The IPCC is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This means the governments own it. And most governments are owned by corporations. Oil and gas corporations are some of the wealthiest on this planet, and it's therefore reasonable to think that a fair share of the governments that own the IPCC are themselves owned by Big Oil.

The linked Guardian article does not sound too optimistic about the COP21 out-come given the relationship between most governments of the world and the fossil fuel industry.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/10/keep-fossil-fuels-in-the-ground-to-stop-climate-change


Saudi Arabia, for instance, has a veto whenever a Summary for Policy Makers is drafted. They took out loads of unpleasant info and charts from the previous SPM. This affects the official IPCC product, and counter to the popular urban myth, corporate/government meddling with the IPCC reports is not limited to the SPM. Google and read up, for instance in this thread.

A truly scientific climate panel would be nice. For sure, even independent scientists can be conservative, careful etc, but within the IPCC their conservatism is rewarded financially. They may lose their assignment with the IPCC next time around if they stick to the science and tell it like it is.

Even though I'm rooting for a rapid Civ collapse (to save the Biosphere), I hate the though of a 'Statoil Panel on Climate Change' or an 'Exxon IPCC'. It's just wrong :(
« Last Edit: March 10, 2015, 09:51:53 PM by viddaloo »
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Pmt111500

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #85 on: March 10, 2015, 05:03:52 AM »
Robert Scribbler has put up a good read on permafrost and Arctic methane release (recommended at least to those who do not actively follow this issue)

https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2015/03/09/cause-for-appropriate-concern-over-arctic-methane-overburden-plumes-eruptions-and-large-ocean-craters/

(private line of thought connects the concurrent methane release to the apparent movement of polar vortex. This would be a part of the reason why northeastern North America has been as cold during last couple of winters as in the first half of 20th century)
« Last Edit: March 10, 2015, 07:05:45 AM by Pmt111500 »
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jai mitchell

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Re: What if IPCC was proven to be a suicide pact?
« Reply #86 on: March 11, 2015, 04:45:55 AM »
This 2008 TED talk is still completely relevant to the discussion.  It shows how the IPCC models were overly conservative in the AR4 and the same conservatisms are applicable to the new AR5.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjOP3Y_JUX8
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