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Bob Wallace

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #150 on: December 30, 2014, 07:01:44 AM »
Quote
you propose that we replace a significant majority of our transportation, industrial energy use and power generation infrastructure but neglect to consider that these activities actually demand more energy and hence, more emissions.

A year or so back the world passed the point at which we had enough solar generation on line to produce all the energy annually we need to make solar panels.  We passed this point much earlier with wind.

We are going to have to replace coal plants as they wear out.  That is a baked in cost.  The  overnight cost of a coal plant is $3/watt.  Given the time it takes to construct and bring one on line the installed price is somewhere around $5/watt.  The installed cost of a wind farm is $1.63/watt.  At a CF of 85% for coal and a CF of 40% for wind that works out to $5.88 vs. $4.07 installed/produced watt.

Replacing coal with wind is cheaper, even before allowing for the fuel cost differential. 

Solar works out higher ($9.05) per installed/produced watt but the price of solar should fall by at least 50%.    Other countries are installing for about 40% less than what it currently costs in the US.

Then let's add in the $140 billion to $242 billion per year we spend treating coal-related health problems in the US.  Europe spends up to €42.8 billion a year.

We may spend a little bit retiring coal plants early but we will more than earn that back via pollution related cost savings.

We are already cutting emissions in the US and we're saving money doing so.



We will replace the cars we now drive over the next ~ 20 years.  We know that we'll replace them with more efficient vehicles because we've made the manufacturers produce more efficient vehicles. 

We are likely to see longer range (~200 mile) EVs for around $35k within the next two - three years.  The average new car price in the US is $32k. 

At that point EVs take off.  Economies of scale should bring down the cost of EVs to at least the mid-$20k range in less than 10 years.  ICEVs should have lost considerable market share by then and be basically disappeared from showrooms in less than 20 years.  New technologies generally take over very quickly once they reach the "as good or better and/or as as cheap or cheaper" point.

That's where we say goodbye to most of our oil use.  Public transportation will be going electric at the same time.  We already have electric buses which are cheaper to own and operate than diesel buses for city use. 

We're also likely to see our cars and buses lasting much longer than did our ICEVs.  We send cars to the crusher because it costs too much to replace the engine/transmission.  Industrial electric motors last "forever" and are inexpensive to rebuild.   We're looking at EV batteries that can go 3,000 cycles before they drop to 80% capacity.  That's 600,000 miles in a 200 mile range EV. 

New paint, new seat covers.  Drive that EV 300k. 400k.  We build far fewer new vehicles simply because the market doesn't want more used ones.

It becomes cheaper to travel carbon-free than using fossil fuels.

Each solar panel, each wind turbine, each EV, each electric bus or trolley we bring on line cuts fossil fuel use and more than pays for itself via baked in savings.

This is just the market operating.  As I've said multiple times, the market alone may not get us where we need to be fast enough.  We may have to put a price on carbon in order to speed things up.

werther

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #151 on: December 30, 2014, 11:17:29 AM »
I am interested in all information concerning implementation of renewables. I welcome new developments.
Thanks for sharing that from your expertise, Bob. I can enjoy your enthousiasm, when you say ‘we’re gonna do this…’. To make that enthousiasm work, I suppose it is necessary on a political level not to discourage people. I can understand that. But what I see happening is that, at least in the Netherlands, it also dozes the leadership into a false sense of average priority.

For as much specification as I can produce from my recollection, the Netherlands now has a 4% share of renewables in its’ energy supply and generation. GHG emission-growth has been reduced, merely because of small economic growth since 2008 and outsourcing to low-wages countries.

It is no surprise that the Netherlands come out as the worst country in Western Europe by standards of climate policy in the annual report of ‘German Climate Watch’. I cannot speak for other countries, so I won’t suppose there’s no sincere and meaningful action on energy-efficiency and renewable elsewhere. But the story over here doesn’t help much.

It is when you are engaging in debate over the urgency of the climate threat, when you’re getting annoying instead of enthousiast, Bob. To be able to hold on to your engineering enthousiasm, you dismiss genuine concern. Better avoid to categorize the opposing views as idiosyncrasy.
You are entitled to suggest that AR5 by the IPCC still covers ground for action through which a catastrophe can be bypassed. But risk analysis shows that chances are bad.

GeoffBeacon

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #152 on: December 30, 2014, 02:38:10 PM »
I've just done a piece "We need a green recession and full employment" http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/free-markets-poverty-and-equality-and-climate/

Preface
Quote
This preface is an afterthought. After a week or so of struggling to bring out the argument below, I have realised a few days later a simpler way of expressing where the argument leads: to save the world from climate catastrophe a reduction we need a recession because we have to cut most of that consumption which pollutes.  Green growth is greenwashing. We need a green recession.  Below I suggest one mechanism of creating a green recession with full employment.

I have changed the title from “Poverty, equality, climate and growth” to “We need a green recession and full employment”.
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wili

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #153 on: December 30, 2014, 04:42:38 PM »
Thanks, Geoff.

Another strategy toward reaching full employment is to cut the length of the working week.

If people have secure health coverage and aren't being gouged by their landlord or mortgage bankster or other financial criminals, people should be able to survive on fewer hours worked, or, as you say, be compensated.

On the fine thing--really, what the BP oil spill was goes beyond something that should be fined. It was criminal negligence. There are and need to be more laws against spilling massive quantities of pollution into our waterways and air. So I think a fine, while it may be necessary, is not sufficient.

We must directly regulate the emissions of carbon fuels with the aim to rapidly bring them to zero.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

SATire

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #154 on: December 30, 2014, 05:42:56 PM »
Quote
If you are ideologically opposed to wealth redistribution and heavily regulated industries/markets, you have an almost 100% likelihood to disbelieve the science of climate change.

You could be heavily invested in renewable energy and be opposed wealth redistribution.  Lots of people are greedy.

I would suggest that there are many wealthy people who understand climate change ("believe") but still fight to maintain their profits from dirty energy.  Just because one understands that their behavior harms others does not mean that they automatically change their behavior.

Lots of people are greedy.
Bob - things are not that simple. Not all people making money with renewables want to reduce CO2 - some just want to continue BAU and thus are not aiming for 1 t/CO2/person/year and thus are not working against climate change.

And not all people promoting wealth distribution are greedy. Some people are really angry. E.g. I read about wall-street people getting money just as much as before the crash - and they get the money for doing things I would not spend my money for. OK - that is some kind of robbery and I should not bother. Unfortunately they do not behave like normal criminals: Instead of spending that money for drugs and girls they spend it for flying with private helicopters from their house in the hamptons to work - rendering the CO2-reduction effort of 1,000 serious people useless.

Maybe cap&trade are not enough. We should consider also cap&jail: After being responsible for 100 t CO2 in the air people should go to jail with vegetarian food only... After producing more CO2 than the average person in the world (e.g. 1 t/year ~ 100 t/life) it should be "game over" with emission or personal consumption of anything not 100% sustainable. It is not greediness: Those people eat away the earth of my children! That behaviour is criminal like robbery or maybe even like a suicide terrorist!

GeoffBeacon

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #155 on: December 30, 2014, 05:43:22 PM »
Wili

Thanks.

I won't argue much with that.

I'm not against regulation but a carbon tax/fine would be a quick start.

The flat rate subsidy/rebate on labour in the proposals could be linked to a shorter working week.

But we do need a green recession.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #156 on: December 30, 2014, 06:06:11 PM »
Wili

Thanks.

I won't argue much with that.

I'm not against regulation but a carbon tax/fine would be a quick start.

The flat rate subsidy/rebate on labour in the proposals could be linked to a shorter working week.

But we do need a green recession.

Geoff,

While most people think of a recession as a job killer, the linked website discusses a USA based tax neutral carbon fee & dividend that: (a) redistributes wealth (see the first image), (b) leads to increased employment (see the second & third attached image); and (c) limits domestic consumption associated with fossil fuels.

http://climatecolab.org/web/guest/plans/-/plans/contestId/1300404/planId/2802

Best,
ASLR

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Bob Wallace

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #157 on: December 30, 2014, 08:07:11 PM »
Quote
It is when you are engaging in debate over the urgency of the climate threat, when you’re getting annoying instead of enthousiast, Bob. To be able to hold on to your engineering enthousiasm, you dismiss genuine concern. Better avoid to categorize the opposing views as idiosyncrasy.
You are entitled to suggest that AR5 by the IPCC still covers ground for action through which a catastrophe can be bypassed. But risk analysis shows that chances are bad.

Please give me a list of the scientific organizations and governmental scientific bodies which have stated the IPCC has greatly underestimated climate change.

jai mitchell

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #158 on: December 30, 2014, 08:33:14 PM »
Quote
It is when you are engaging in debate over the urgency of the climate threat, when you’re getting annoying instead of enthousiast, Bob. To be able to hold on to your engineering enthousiasm, you dismiss genuine concern. Better avoid to categorize the opposing views as idiosyncrasy.
You are entitled to suggest that AR5 by the IPCC still covers ground for action through which a catastrophe can be bypassed. But risk analysis shows that chances are bad.

Please give me a list of the scientific organizations and governmental scientific bodies which have stated the IPCC has greatly underestimated climate change.

Whats the matter? your google broke?

here:

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=IPCC+underestimated

Scientific American
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-ipcc-underestimated-climate-change/

Quote
How the IPCC Underestimated Climate Change

Here are just eight examples of where the IPCC missed predictions

Washington post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/10/30/climate-scientists-arent-too-alarmist-theyre-too-conservative/

Quote
The IPCC, one scientific group http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378012001215 charged last year, has a tendency to "err on the side of least drama." And now, in a new study just out in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, another group of researchers echoes that point. In scientific parlance, they charge that the IPCC is focused on avoiding what are called "type 1" errors -- claiming something is happening when it really is not (a "false positive") -- rather than on avoiding "type 2" errors -- not claiming something is happening when it really is (a "false negative").

The Guardian
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/dec/04/experts-ipcc-underestimated-sea-level-rise

Quote
It looks like past IPCC predictions of sea level rise were too conservative; things are worse than we thought. That is the takeaway message from a new study http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379113004381 out in Quaternary Science Reviews and from updates to the IPCC report itself. The new study, which is also discussed in depth on RealClimate, tries to determine what our sea levels will be in the future. What they found isn't pretty.

Climate Progress
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/01/31/1524981/why-climate-scientists-have-consistently-underestimated-key-global-warming-impacts/

Quote
Why Climate Scientists Have Consistently UNDERestimated Key Global Warming Impacts

 by Joe Romm Posted on January 31, 2013 at 6:12 pm

Daily Climate
http://www.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2012/12/ipcc-climate-predictions

Quote
Another example: This summer, NASA climatologist James Hansen co-authored an analysis of recent extreme weather across the globe. Hansen's team arrived at a strikingly different conclusion from an IPCC special assessment on the topic released just months earlier.

The Hansen study, http://www.pnas.org/content/109/37/E2415.abstract?sid=6284a734-3a11-495c-b29a-ac89a5f5b1df  published in August in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, concluded that rapid climate change over the past 30 years has loaded the dice in favor of extreme weather.

Skeptical Science
http://www.skepticalscience.com/ipcc-scientific-consensus.htm

Quote
How the IPCC is more likely to underestimate the climate response

Numerous papers have documented how IPCC predictions are more likely to underestimate the climate response.

The Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatechange/10331898/Lord-Stern-IPCC-report-will-underestimate-climate-change.html

Quote
Lord Stern: IPCC report will underestimate climate change

This week’s IPCC report will underestimate the future threat of climate change because scientific models do not include certain key variables, according to a leading expert

Earth Island Journal
http://www.earthisland.org/journal/index.php/eij/article/paltry_predictions/

Quote
Go Back: Home > Earth Island Journal > Issues > Spring 2009 > Web Exclusive
Web Exclusive
Paltry PredictionsWhy Have Some of the World’s Best and Brightest Minds Underestimated How Quickly We’re Scorching the Atmosphere?

We’re looking at future climate beyond anything we’ve considered,” Chris Field, director of the global ecology department at the Carnegie Institution for Science, told the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) annual meeting in Chicago last month. “Actual emissions are at or above the total range of possibilities considered in the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment.”

The underestimation of greenhouse emissions occurred, Field said, because the IPCC failed to include in its scenarios the rapid increase in carbon dioxide from Asia’s coal-reliant industrial expansion between 2000 and 2007


These are just the top level links to a two-word google search.

are you sure you aren't just trolling?


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Bob Wallace

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #159 on: December 30, 2014, 08:36:31 PM »
Quote
It is when you are engaging in debate over the urgency of the climate threat, when you’re getting annoying

Just to add, IMHO doomers should be annoyed.  As frequently as possible.

We've got a couple people posting here who seem to feel it would be a good thing for us to experience a global crash, billions of people to die horrible deaths.

We've got people who are certain that we will crash.  That there is no chance of us dogging this bullet and that the end is short decades away.

Sites that are legitimately concerned about the climate tend to attract extremists who seem to relish thoughts of a future full of disaster.  I suspect they also imagine that they will emerge as the alpha male leading a pack of buxom female warriors and triumphing over their foes.   A more enjoyable life than toiling in their cubical while being yelled at by their boss.

Laurent

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #160 on: December 30, 2014, 08:45:21 PM »
By the way, I am using a metasearcher that isn't google...if you are interested in alternatives...
https://searx.laquadrature.net/
 8)

Bob Wallace

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #161 on: December 30, 2014, 08:46:05 PM »
Quote
It is when you are engaging in debate over the urgency of the climate threat, when you’re getting annoying instead of enthousiast, Bob. To be able to hold on to your engineering enthousiasm, you dismiss genuine concern. Better avoid to categorize the opposing views as idiosyncrasy.
You are entitled to suggest that AR5 by the IPCC still covers ground for action through which a catastrophe can be bypassed. But risk analysis shows that chances are bad.

Please give me a list of the scientific organizations and governmental scientific bodies which have stated the IPCC has greatly underestimated climate change.

Whats the matter? your google broke?

here:

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=IPCC+underestimated

Scientific American
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-ipcc-underestimated-climate-change/

Quote
How the IPCC Underestimated Climate Change

Here are just eight examples of where the IPCC missed predictions

Washington post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/10/30/climate-scientists-arent-too-alarmist-theyre-too-conservative/

Quote
The IPCC, one scientific group http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378012001215 charged last year, has a tendency to "err on the side of least drama." And now, in a new study just out in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, another group of researchers echoes that point. In scientific parlance, they charge that the IPCC is focused on avoiding what are called "type 1" errors -- claiming something is happening when it really is not (a "false positive") -- rather than on avoiding "type 2" errors -- not claiming something is happening when it really is (a "false negative").

The Guardian
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/dec/04/experts-ipcc-underestimated-sea-level-rise

Quote
It looks like past IPCC predictions of sea level rise were too conservative; things are worse than we thought. That is the takeaway message from a new study http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379113004381 out in Quaternary Science Reviews and from updates to the IPCC report itself. The new study, which is also discussed in depth on RealClimate, tries to determine what our sea levels will be in the future. What they found isn't pretty.

Climate Progress
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/01/31/1524981/why-climate-scientists-have-consistently-underestimated-key-global-warming-impacts/

Quote
Why Climate Scientists Have Consistently UNDERestimated Key Global Warming Impacts

 by Joe Romm Posted on January 31, 2013 at 6:12 pm

Daily Climate
http://www.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2012/12/ipcc-climate-predictions

Quote
Another example: This summer, NASA climatologist James Hansen co-authored an analysis of recent extreme weather across the globe. Hansen's team arrived at a strikingly different conclusion from an IPCC special assessment on the topic released just months earlier.

The Hansen study, http://www.pnas.org/content/109/37/E2415.abstract?sid=6284a734-3a11-495c-b29a-ac89a5f5b1df  published in August in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, concluded that rapid climate change over the past 30 years has loaded the dice in favor of extreme weather.

Skeptical Science
http://www.skepticalscience.com/ipcc-scientific-consensus.htm

Quote
How the IPCC is more likely to underestimate the climate response

Numerous papers have documented how IPCC predictions are more likely to underestimate the climate response.

The Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatechange/10331898/Lord-Stern-IPCC-report-will-underestimate-climate-change.html

Quote
Lord Stern: IPCC report will underestimate climate change

This week’s IPCC report will underestimate the future threat of climate change because scientific models do not include certain key variables, according to a leading expert

Earth Island Journal
http://www.earthisland.org/journal/index.php/eij/article/paltry_predictions/

Quote
Go Back: Home > Earth Island Journal > Issues > Spring 2009 > Web Exclusive
Web Exclusive
Paltry PredictionsWhy Have Some of the World’s Best and Brightest Minds Underestimated How Quickly We’re Scorching the Atmosphere?

We’re looking at future climate beyond anything we’ve considered,” Chris Field, director of the global ecology department at the Carnegie Institution for Science, told the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) annual meeting in Chicago last month. “Actual emissions are at or above the total range of possibilities considered in the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment.”

The underestimation of greenhouse emissions occurred, Field said, because the IPCC failed to include in its scenarios the rapid increase in carbon dioxide from Asia’s coal-reliant industrial expansion between 2000 and 2007


These are just the top level links to a two-word google search.

are you sure you aren't just trolling?

I will spend some time reading your links.

The first one is one person's opinion.  Not what I requested - major scientific organization official statement.

Glancing at a couple others it looks like more of the same.  Grabbing onto outlier opinion.

Joe writes more of the same.  He's always been something of a scenery chewer.

I'll read.  How about you give some thought as to whether you have taken an extremist's position?

jai mitchell

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #162 on: December 30, 2014, 09:35:45 PM »

I'll read.  How about you give some thought as to whether you have taken an extremist's position?

Bob,

I have also been a bit "annoyed" by those who determined that there is no solution but collapse or there is no solution period.

I see it differently, I understand the societal and infrastructure changes that are needed to implement this fundamental transformation of our entire global society.  I have a sense of the raw materials and implementation effort needed to achieve even the RCP 4.5 goals we discussed earlier.d

to be absolutely frank, I really don't see how we are going to be able to do it all and at the same time deal with the global destabilization and adaption changes that the warming, already locked in at current levels, will bring.

That being said, then the only viable solution is to implement these changes as radically and as swiftly as can possibly be attained, all at the same time as we promote resiliency and deal with destabilization throughout the world.

I am not an extremist, I am an engineer.

p.s. there is a term "precautionary principle" that gets thrown around a lot.  Well, it is time for us to realize that the precautionary principle no longer applies as we have now explicitly observed the early impacts of climate change and by any reasonable comprehension of our circumstances must embrace that these impacts will necessarily grow in severity and frequency for the next 75 years or so.


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Sigmetnow

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #163 on: December 30, 2014, 09:50:52 PM »
Gotta throw this into the mix:  consider the serious projections of renewables adoption that have turned out to be too low, year after year after year.

https://onclimatechangepolicydotorg.wordpress.com/2013/10/08/why-have-the-ieas-projections-of-renewables-growth-been-so-much-lower-than-the-out-turn/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #164 on: December 30, 2014, 11:01:09 PM »
Maybe cap&trade are not enough. We should consider also cap&jail: After being responsible for 100 t CO2 in the air people should go to jail with vegetarian food only... After producing more CO2 than the average person in the world (e.g. 1 t/year ~ 100 t/life) it should be "game over" with emission or personal consumption of anything not 100% sustainable. It is not greediness: Those people eat away the earth of my children! That behaviour is criminal like robbery or maybe even like a suicide terrorist!

I understand your sentiment, but the splendid idea of Cap & Jail (!) should have been implemented in the 1980s — while we were watching Dallas, Dynasty and the Royal Wedding in England — IMO to avoid the collapse that now seems inevitable.
[]

Bob Wallace

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #165 on: December 30, 2014, 11:56:37 PM »
Quote
I see it differently, I understand the societal and infrastructure changes that are needed to implement this fundamental transformation of our entire global society.  I have a sense of the raw materials and implementation effort needed to achieve even the RCP 4.5 goals we discussed earlier.

Jacobson and Delucchi did what I would consider a decent job of defining the world's need for energy several years out and showed us that there is likely no problem with raw materials.  And that the job was feasible in as little as 20 years with a concerted effort.

That paper was published in 2009.  Five years later our wind turbines and solar panels produce more electricity "per pound" of raw materials.  We have greatly improved our efficiencies so that we will be need less power.

http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/sad1109Jaco5p.indd.pdf

We are not, IMO, sufficiently "fired up" yet to fix things.  We seem to get more concerned with each passing year.  We now have 82% of US citizens saying that something needs to be done about rising sea levels.  Next is for a significant majority to get concerned enough to start pushing hard on the government.

I'm looking at that "peak CO2 by ~2025", a drop in CO2 emissions by 40% to 70% by 2050, and a total phase out of fossil fuels by 2100 as a somewhat safe target.  If it isn't safe enough we should understand that over the next few years.  If we need to be fossil fuel free by 2050 we could finish the job we've started over the next 35 years.

----------------
I feel it necessary to point out that I am not advocating going slow.
----------------

I think we have a significant task ahead of us.  One in which we have to replace almost all of our coal and most of our natural gas with low carbon generation.  We have to replace almost all of our vehicles with low carbon vehicles.

Over the next 35 years.

Over the next 35 years we will replace the majority of our existing coal plants with something.  Coal plants wear out.  Coal plants have an average lifespan in the US of 40 years.

Over the next 35 years well replace most of the cars on our roads with something.  Twice.

If we need to cut CO2 emissions by 70% by 2050 then we need to replace about 2% of our coal and gas plants and about 2% of our vehicles with low carbon alternatives.  That is, considering what we will have to do simply because of stuff aging out, a piece of cake.

-----------------------------
I feel it necessary to repeat that I am not advocating for going as slowly as possible.
-----------------------------

Now, here's what I think will happen.

1) Most countries are going to show up for next year's climate get-together with plan that is at least close to adequate.

2) Those with the poorest plans will find people snapping at their heels.

3) We'll continue along the 1% to 2% switch-over per year for a year or three.

4) People will become more concerned.  Clean tech prices will drop and technology will improve.  Clean tech industries will gain more political power. 
 
5) We will see accelerating growth of clean tech solutions.

The rate of acceleration will be determined by changes in concern and falling prices.

If we get a very clear message from climate science that the "2025/2050/2100" targets are too low then we'll go balls to the wall and do the job in less than 20 years.  Be done with fossil fuels in less than 20 years.

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #166 on: December 31, 2014, 12:30:39 AM »
I think we have a significant task ahead of us.  One in which we have to replace almost all of our coal and most of our natural gas with low carbon generation.  We have to replace almost all of our vehicles with low carbon vehicles.

Over the next 35 years.

Over the next 35 years we will replace the majority of our existing coal plants with something.  Coal plants wear out.  Coal plants have an average lifespan in the US of 40 years.

Over the next 35 years well replace most of the cars on our roads with something.  Twice.

We need to replace consumer culture, and the thing that is driving it and other negative stuff.
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SATire

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #167 on: December 31, 2014, 12:38:30 AM »
I understand your sentiment, but the splendid idea of Cap & Jail (!) should have been implemented in the 1980s — while we were watching Dallas, Dynasty and the Royal Wedding in England — IMO to avoid the collapse that now seems inevitable.
viddaloo, in the eighties our favourite collapse & doom scenario was nuclear war - fighting the Pershings the doom felt like less than a decade away those days. Furthermore, we concentrated on acid rain (with very familiar discussions like denial of scientific background / doom scenarios for our cars industry vs. our nature) and later very successful fighting FCKW. Our parents did quite a good job since they won both fights. Now it is our time to win this fight.

And please remember: Technological solutions were not the bottle neck those times. As today it was very clear what to do and what to do not. We do not need any future technology or scaling or market miracles. All it needs is to ban CO2 fast enough - with the velocity determined by sciences. We may or may not have economic loss due to that transition - that does not matter much. So it is our job today to decrease CO2 emission by all means. Everything else is not of comparable importance. Let the people whine about austerity or de-growth or deflation or other effects of reduced consumption, we have to do it now. Help the poor people / the poor countries if you think the suffering is to large. But in our developed countries e.g. in Europe/USA/Japan such whining is just a bad joke and we all know that.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #168 on: December 31, 2014, 12:39:16 AM »
Quote
As Niels Bohr is reported to have said: "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future."
...
That's [how] I take forecasts that say that electric vehicles will be X% of total vehicles sold in 2040 or whatever. How good were we at projecting this stuff 25 years ago? Sometimes single events can make big changes. GM's decision to kill the EV1 and not pursue electric cars had a big impact. That Tesla didn't go bankrupt (they came very close) in 2009 and succeeded in launching the Model S also had a big impact. If they can get to the mass-market Model 3, that'll change things too. Add or remove any single thing and it's the butterfly effect, and in 25 years you might end up in a very different place. And I'm not even talking about things like oil prices, carbon taxes, etc. That's why forecasting is so hard.
http://www.treehugger.com/renewable-energy/solar-power-forecasts-too-pessimistic-analysts-missed-59-past-4-years.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #169 on: December 31, 2014, 12:48:44 AM »
I'm reading -

Quote
Lord Stern: IPCC report will underestimate climate change

This week’s IPCC report will underestimate the future threat of climate change because scientific models do not include certain key variables, according to a leading expert


The Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatechange/10331898/Lord-Stern-IPCC-report-will-underestimate-climate-change.html

Your link says that the IPCC will underestimate permafrost melting.

"mportant factors like the melting of frozen Arctic soil, which are expected to contribute significantly to global warming, have been left out of scientists’ calculations because the size of their impact remains unclear.
It means that models which will be used to inform the latest international assessment of climate science, to be revealed on Friday, “substantially underestimate” the scale of the problem, Lord Stern of Brentford claimed."

Here's the page where the 2014 IPCC report discusses the literature on permafrost melting.

http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=607

Apparently permafrost emissions are not yet included in models because the amounts of methane/CO2 are unknown.  Gotta have some numbers in a mathematical model.

Rohn says

Quote
While we have recently shown that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) temperature projections have been exceptionally accurate, several other projections in the IPCC reports have been far too conservative.


Then he says

Quote
For example, Rahmstorf (2007) and more recently Rahmstorf et al. (2012) showed that sea level is rising at a rate inconsistent with all but the highest IPCC scenarios

OK, sea levels have risen at the highest IPCC model predictions.

Then -

Quote
In 2012, Arctic sea ice melt shattered the previous record low, to levels unseen in millennia, increasing the margin by which IPCC projections have been too conservative.

Do we consider 2012 to be the "true" measure of Arctic sea ice or an exceptional year?  We now have two years of extent that's pretty much in the IPCC range.

Then -

Quote
The Copenhagen Diagnosis similarly found that in addition to underestimating sea level rise, human CO2 emissions have tracked towards the highest IPCC scenarios.

What I'm seeing is that the IPCC presents a range of possibilities  and that the data is closest to their most extreme predictions. 

Out of these two papers I see some valid criticism but not a message of abject failure on the part of the IPCC. 

Bob Wallace

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #170 on: December 31, 2014, 12:51:08 AM »
I think we have a significant task ahead of us.  One in which we have to replace almost all of our coal and most of our natural gas with low carbon generation.  We have to replace almost all of our vehicles with low carbon vehicles.

Over the next 35 years.

Over the next 35 years we will replace the majority of our existing coal plants with something.  Coal plants wear out.  Coal plants have an average lifespan in the US of 40 years.

Over the next 35 years well replace most of the cars on our roads with something.  Twice.

We need to replace consumer culture, and the thing that is driving it and other negative stuff.

Could you please fine tune your statement?

We need to replace our "consumer culture" with sustainable consumption.  It's not that we are consuming, but it's what we're consuming.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #171 on: December 31, 2014, 12:56:05 AM »
Quote
As Niels Bohr is reported to have said: "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future."
...
That's [how] I take forecasts that say that electric vehicles will be X% of total vehicles sold in 2040 or whatever. How good were we at projecting this stuff 25 years ago? Sometimes single events can make big changes. GM's decision to kill the EV1 and not pursue electric cars had a big impact. That Tesla didn't go bankrupt (they came very close) in 2009 and succeeded in launching the Model S also had a big impact. If they can get to the mass-market Model 3, that'll change things too. Add or remove any single thing and it's the butterfly effect, and in 25 years you might end up in a very different place. And I'm not even talking about things like oil prices, carbon taxes, etc. That's why forecasting is so hard.
http://www.treehugger.com/renewable-energy/solar-power-forecasts-too-pessimistic-analysts-missed-59-past-4-years.html

If we were adequately concerned about climate change we could get almost totally off fossil fuels for personal transportation in ten years.  With the technology we have in hand.  We need to invent nothing.

We are not concerned enough to make that switch.  We do not have any scientific bodies telling us that it is panic time.

---------------
I fell it necessary to point out that I am not advocating slow movement off fossil fuels.
----------------


Neven

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #172 on: December 31, 2014, 01:08:06 AM »
Could you please fine tune your statement?

We need to replace our "consumer culture" with sustainable consumption.  It's not that we are consuming, but it's what we're consuming.

It's the quantities we are consuming, and the (generally bad) quality of these quantities, it's the constant ads, the invisible addictions, the needless travelling. I don't believe it is possible to greenify all of this. We need to make do with less, our (western) culture needs to change. For more reasons than just AGW.

I was in church for Christmas (my daughter sang in the choir for the occasion). They had heaters under the seats. My bum was hot. And then the priest asked for donations to pay for the heating. I almost committed blasphemy. Later I walked past a restaurant where they had this big heaters outside. They were on, but no one was sitting there.

Do we want to erect extra wind turbines for that? Or do we want to do the smart thing?

Yet another depressing Christmas has passed.
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viddaloo

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #173 on: December 31, 2014, 01:24:35 AM »
I understand your sentiment, but the splendid idea of Cap & Jail (!) should have been implemented in the 1980s — while we were watching Dallas, Dynasty and the Royal Wedding in England — IMO to avoid the collapse that now seems inevitable.
viddaloo, in the eighties our favourite collapse & doom scenario was nuclear war - fighting the Pershings the doom felt like less than a decade away those days. Furthermore, we concentrated on acid rain (with very familiar discussions like denial of scientific background / doom scenarios for our cars industry vs. our nature) and later very successful fighting FCKW. Our parents did quite a good job since they won both fights. Now it is our time to win this fight.

Sounds really cozy and traditional: Each generation their fight! The plan has only one flaw: The timescale for avoiding civ & Biosphere collapse doesn't wait for a new generation to free itself from reality TV and computer games and then slowly realizing it probably should start doing something about the GHG situation. That timescale is pretty harsh and stubborn in that way. If it was on Facebook, it wouldn't get many likes. But as I said, those changes would have had to be made at the latest in the eighties. Not a half–century later, which is too late. Do I make myself clear?
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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #174 on: December 31, 2014, 01:39:09 AM »
But as I said, those changes would have had to be made at the latest in the eighties. Not a half–century later, which is too late. Do I make myself clear?
Would have been nice if the necessary changes would have been done in the Eighties. They weren't. So they have to be done now. The effort is larger now, sure. But it is now the time for my generation to fix it or we are lost. Do I make myself clear, too?

That is strange, that so many people explain me here, that the problem should be solved some decades from now - you say some decades prior today and Bob tells me, that we have some decades left so we may sit back and let the market do some magic things. No - the time is now and the people to do it are we. Not our parents and not our children. Sorry.

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #175 on: December 31, 2014, 01:49:57 AM »
I hear you, but I think we are talking past each other. I am of the opinion that neither you or I can choose what decade would be the latest possible for turning this ship around to avoid disaster. It's not up for vote. And even if we did have a vote, which would be real silly, the 'world wouldn't listen', to quote the Smiths, meaning physical world climate systems wouldn't even care. I'm not making a moral judgement here, while you seem to say it's our moral 'responsibility'.
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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #176 on: December 31, 2014, 03:06:12 AM »
Could you please fine tune your statement?

We need to replace our "consumer culture" with sustainable consumption.  It's not that we are consuming, but it's what we're consuming.

It's the quantities we are consuming, and the (generally bad) quality of these quantities, it's the constant ads, the invisible addictions, the needless travelling. I don't believe it is possible to greenify all of this. We need to make do with less, our (western) culture needs to change. For more reasons than just AGW.

I was in church for Christmas (my daughter sang in the choir for the occasion). They had heaters under the seats. My bum was hot. And then the priest asked for donations to pay for the heating. I almost committed blasphemy. Later I walked past a restaurant where they had this big heaters outside. They were on, but no one was sitting there.

Do we want to erect extra wind turbines for that? Or do we want to do the smart thing?

Yet another depressing Christmas has passed.

Yes, Nevin.

If we keep consuming large amounts of goods created from non-sustainable inputs we will run out of non-sustainable inputs.

Now.  Do we want to erect extra wind turbines so that we overheat your bum or allow people to sit out on the sidewalk on a cold day?

I'd say that after we've replaced fossil fuels with clean tech then if we want to expend some more energy, use sustainable inputs, and overheat our bums - so what?

Bob Wallace

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #177 on: December 31, 2014, 03:10:57 AM »
Quote
Bob tells me, that we have some decades left so we may sit back and let the market do some magic things.

Holy friggin' bullsh!t

I have never said anything even slightly resembling that. 

I have consistently said that there's a chance that we can hit our targets with market forces alone.  But I've consistently said that the wise course it to hit the marks early and press onward.

Please do not make up stuff an attribute it to me.

wili

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #178 on: December 31, 2014, 05:33:27 AM »
These threads are being overcome by trolls. Please join me in not feeding the same. Thank you, and happy new year.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #179 on: December 31, 2014, 07:03:02 AM »
Happy New Year to you, too, wili — and thank you for the last!

The Washington—Beijing Climate Axis

In the past, the US and China used each other’s intransigence as an excuse to avoid making cuts in their carbon emissions.  The world was becoming weary of this game, forcing the two to drop their pretense of opposing each other in favor of a show of cooperation.  With their climate agreement and the Lima Declaration that they played a central role in crafting, the two biggest emitters have set the parameters of global climate action.  These are parameters that all but ensure that the world will be on way to the 4 to 6 degrees centigrade plus world that will be our generation’s catastrophic legacy to our descendants.
[]

Neven

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #180 on: December 31, 2014, 08:49:18 AM »
Quote
I'd say that after we've replaced fossil fuels with clean tech then if we want to expend some more energy, use sustainable inputs, and overheat our bums - so what?

But now, Bob, now. What is the smart thing to do now? Keep going with these wasteful lifestyles and making them green, or change the lifestyles and the culture that promotes them to make it easier to greenify them (never mind the discussion whether that's possible).

I know this is a rhetorical question. But part of the answer is that money and politics won't allow it to happen, as it is bad for GDP.

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Bob Wallace

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #181 on: December 31, 2014, 09:44:01 AM »
Quote
I'd say that after we've replaced fossil fuels with clean tech then if we want to expend some more energy, use sustainable inputs, and overheat our bums - so what?

But now, Bob, now. What is the smart thing to do now? Keep going with these wasteful lifestyles and making them green, or change the lifestyles and the culture that promotes them to make it easier to greenify them (never mind the discussion whether that's possible).

I know this is a rhetorical question. But part of the answer is that money and politics won't allow it to happen, as it is bad for GDP.



Neven, the quickest way for us to get climate change under control is to build dorms close to the places we work, hot bunk on 8 hour shifts, eat our meals out of a community kitchen with stoves run from methane from the sewage system.

We'd read books owned by the company library by daylight and sit and talk or play acoustical music in the dark after sundown if it wasn't our work or bed shift.

Now, try to talk people into living that sort of lifestyle.  I think you know you'd meet with a huge pile of fail.

We are most likely to succeed if we develop ways for people to continue their present lifestyles as much as possible in sustainable ways.

People will not have to change their TV watching or video game playing if we keep the functions/quality the same as we increase efficiency and power their devices with wind and solar.

People will not have to change their driving to work, the store, their friend's houses if we move them into EVs and power those EVs with wind and solar.

People can still have closets full of the latest fashions as long as we make those clothes out of sustainable materials (bamboo makes a wonderful cloth, BTW).

Yes, it would be easier to transition off fossil fuels if people would minimize their energy use, but surely you know that message falls on many deaf ears. 

Those of us who reduce, reuse, and recycle are doing our part but we aren't going to get everyone to join in. 

Pick a route that's likely to be successful. 

GeoffBeacon

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #182 on: December 31, 2014, 11:01:50 AM »
ASLR

Thanks for the earlier reply. I hadn't seen that linked page before. It's very succinct. I like the quote from George P Shultz 
Quote
It's not a tax if the government doesn't keep the money.
I am aware of Carbon Fee with Dividend from the Citizens Climate Lobby and mention it in the section "Taxes, fines, employment and growth" in the piece  "We need a green recession and full employment" http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/free-markets-poverty-and-equality-and-climate/

Since fininshing the piece a few days ago, I have come to the provisional conclusion (OK, it's a bit of a guess) that piling on a carbon tax at the required rate will initially cause a contraction in total consumption because green consumption (plus green capital investment) cannot replace the necessary loss of polluting consumption quickly enough.  This means GWP (Gross World Product) would fall and cause unemployment.

I propose combining a carbon tax with VAT (a tax on consumption) and a tax rebate (to the employer) to make low-paid labour less expensive to employ. This supports employment in the low-paid section of the community.

However, if a carbon tax/fee/fine could succeed by itself that would be fine. The Citizens' Climate Lobby do make some of these points (e.g. pricing people into jobs) but they do not go as far as saying that we must actually reduce consumption.

As Neven earlier said "We need to replace consumer culture". It's best to do that without creating mass unemployment.

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SATire

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #183 on: December 31, 2014, 01:40:04 PM »
I hear you, but I think we are talking past each other. I am of the opinion that neither you or I can choose what decade would be the latest possible for turning this ship around to avoid disaster. It's not up for vote. And even if we did have a vote, which would be real silly, the 'world wouldn't listen', to quote the Smiths, meaning physical world climate systems wouldn't even care. I'm not making a moral judgement here, while you seem to say it's our moral 'responsibility'.
Viddaloo, maybe we are talking past each other - I do similar things with Bob on a regular basis, too. So please ignore my comment about his opinion and replace that words by his own (however, for me those feel quite similar, however less black&white - that was my fault).

To come back to the obvious points - maybe those are so trivial that it is easy to assume something more behind it. No, it is that simple and trivial:

"physical world climate systems" care about what we do. We all know, that the systems care about each ton of CO2 we dump in the atmosphere. So the systems care if we proceed doing so and maybe would "forgive" a bit after we stop doing so.

Probably you are right assuming "you seem to say it's our moral 'responsibility'". But that is a very simple "moral" and not worth any meaningful philosophical discussion. What I was talking about is the same kind of "moral" even animals do perform: The same kind of responsibility mama bear would show if you are approaching her children. That is just the basic responsibility to survive. I can not see how anybody would not keep such basic "moral" responsibility seriously.

To get a bit more black&white again discussing the "fault" of our ancestors in the Eighties: They fought a problem, which seemed way more serious than global warming those days. And I think they would be right even today. To put it cynical: If we consider global warming to big a threat we can easily go back to the Eighties threat any time. It is just a push of a few buttons to substitute the warming by nuclear winter.

My simple conclusion is, that we have to fight the CO2 emission now. Just because our ancestors were fighting other threats and our children will also fight other threats (in case we are successful). I am tired of the ideological discussions how we can do that so I would leave that "how" to the different societies out there: Some rate liberty/freedom over justice/equity and others vice-versa. So I would suggest to ask for 1t/person/year "in average per society". If some societies like some of its individuals to go to work by private helicopters they will have to convince the others maybe to live in "dorms next to work" - just as they like. The only important thing is, that it will be done. The way - by forcing with money or jail or by education and effort may be the free choice. It is just my personal opinion that we could do it together with the 80% of people via our politics, producing the laws to limit CO2 emission and forcing the typical 20% of the stubborn people the hard way. In some kleptocracy it might be vice-versa - that is their free choice, if they accept that.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2014, 01:45:10 PM by SATire »

viddaloo

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #184 on: December 31, 2014, 02:00:41 PM »
My simple conclusion is, that we have to fight the CO2 emission now. Just because our ancestors were fighting other threats and our children will also fight other threats (in case we are successful).

SATire, with the risk of sounding like a sentimental partykiller on New Year's Eve, let me quote my all–time favourite poet — who to my knowledge is not an expert on climate change:

Quote from: Robert Smith
But it's too late, but it's too late

Apart from that, I admire your spirit, and I shared that and was just like you until I started researching this book for real. Believe me, I had no [tsk tsk] idea. But it's too late.
[]

SATire

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #185 on: December 31, 2014, 03:14:06 PM »
The Cure wrote a book about climate change ???

Bob Wallace

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #186 on: December 31, 2014, 06:00:03 PM »
Quote
green consumption (plus green capital investment) cannot replace the necessary loss of polluting consumption quickly enough

Really?  We install large solar arrays on commercial buildings in a few days, large solar farms in less than a year.  Wind farms are built in less than two years, sometimes less than one.  Both solar and wind farms can be brought on line in "pieces", there's no need until the entire project is finished.  A wind turbine can be stood and brought on line in three days once the site work is completed.

If we institute a carbon price it won't go into effect overnight.  The energy industry will see it coming and start to adjust. 

We most likely wouldn't roll out a harsh price on carbon on day one, but phase it in over a few years.  Basing the rate on how fast the grid could adjust. 

Jobs would be created.  The money earned would slosh around the local economy and boost the overall economy.

Quote
As Neven earlier said "We need to replace consumer culture". It's best to do that without creating mass unemployment.

How about showing us how to accomplish that?

Bob Wallace

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #187 on: December 31, 2014, 06:05:51 PM »
My simple conclusion is, that we have to fight the CO2 emission now. Just because our ancestors were fighting other threats and our children will also fight other threats (in case we are successful).

SATire, with the risk of sounding like a sentimental partykiller on New Year's Eve, let me quote my all–time favourite poet — who to my knowledge is not an expert on climate change:

Quote from: Robert Smith
But it's too late, but it's too late

Apart from that, I admire your spirit, and I shared that and was just like you until I started researching this book for real. Believe me, I had no [tsk tsk] idea. But it's too late.

-
-
-

Quote
With optimism, you look upon the sunny side of things. People say, 'Studs, you're an optimist.' I never said I was an optimist. I have hope because what's the alternative to hope? Despair? If you have despair, you might as well put your head in the oven.
Studs Terkel


Sigmetnow

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #188 on: December 31, 2014, 08:12:52 PM »
Happy New Year to you, too, wili — and thank you for the last!

The Washington—Beijing Climate Axis

In the past, the US and China used each other’s intransigence as an excuse to avoid making cuts in their carbon emissions.  The world was becoming weary of this game, forcing the two to drop their pretense of opposing each other in favor of a show of cooperation.  With their climate agreement and the Lima Declaration that they played a central role in crafting, the two biggest emitters have set the parameters of global climate action.  These are parameters that all but ensure that the world will be on way to the 4 to 6 degrees centigrade plus world that will be our generation’s catastrophic legacy to our descendants.
Wrong.

8 December 2014:
Quote
These new, post-2020 announcements by the EU, USA, and China are more ambitious than their previous (2020) commitments. The effect of these new announcements is between 0.2 and 0.4 degrees lower warming than in earlier assessments of global ambition, reducing the projected warming to 2.9-3.1°C....
http://climateactiontracker.org/news/178/China-US-and-EU-post-2020-plans-reduce-projected-warming.html


(Sorry.  Food for the troll was too close at hand not to throw.)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #189 on: December 31, 2014, 08:20:31 PM »
Now, some more positive news:
Voices and Votes Against Fracking Rang Out and Racked Up in 2014
Quote
Hundreds of cities, towns and counties in 25 states have passed measures regulating or banning fracking, according to data collected by Food & Water Watch, a watchdog organization based in Washington, D.C.

New York authorities announced a statewide fracking ban earlier this month, saying the controversial process could contaminate the state's air and water and pose public-health risks.
...
Bills are pending to reclassify oilfield waste as hazardous and to ban fracking on federally owned public land—a longshot in the face of a Republican takeover of Congress in January.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20141231/voices-and-votes-against-fracking-rang-out-and-racked-2014
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #190 on: December 31, 2014, 08:29:34 PM »
2014 had some of the most destructive weather yet -- and some of the biggest climate action ever.  Both will increase in 2015.
http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/climate_desk/2014/12/climate_desk_video_the_year_in_climate_change_news_reviewed.html
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #191 on: December 31, 2014, 08:43:34 PM »
However, if a carbon tax/fee/fine could succeed by itself that would be fine. The Citizens' Climate Lobby do make some of these points (e.g. pricing people into jobs) but they do not go as far as saying that we must actually reduce consumption.

As Neven earlier said "We need to replace consumer culture". It's best to do that without creating mass unemployment.

Geoff,

As the Carbon Fee & Dividend program is progressive (that is the fees keep increasing until the problem is solved), even without regulating people to consume less fossil fuel supported commodities, the high fees would encourage then to spend their dividends on sustainable commodities.
Best,
ASLR
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Neven

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #192 on: January 01, 2015, 10:43:40 PM »
How about showing us how to accomplish that?

It only works if enough people are willing to do something new that goes against the way they have been conditioned. I know plenty of people who'd be willing to do such a thing in principle, but they're afraid to alienate themselves by not doing the same as the herd. Or they're basically a prisoner of the system, due to things like debt and (hidden) addictions.

So how do you get enough people to take the step? Perhaps by showing them there is such a thing as limits to growth, that we are bumping into these limits, and that every bumping into every limit is a systemic thing. That you can't respect the limits if you don't change the system. You show the limits, you show the bumping, you show that how the system is set up, is causing all of that.

And then you show the alternative. By living it.

I find it extremely difficult because it takes a lifetime (of hard work and alienation) and might be completely useless in the grand scheme of things, but it is what I'm trying to do.

Happy New Year to all.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #193 on: January 01, 2015, 11:07:59 PM »
How about showing us how to accomplish that?

It only works if enough people are willing to do something new that goes against the way they have been conditioned. I know plenty of people who'd be willing to do such a thing in principle, but they're afraid to alienate themselves by not doing the same as the herd. Or they're basically a prisoner of the system, due to things like debt and (hidden) addictions.

So how do you get enough people to take the step? Perhaps by showing them there is such a thing as limits to growth, that we are bumping into these limits, and that every bumping into every limit is a systemic thing. That you can't respect the limits if you don't change the system. You show the limits, you show the bumping, you show that how the system is set up, is causing all of that.

And then you show the alternative. By living it.

I find it extremely difficult because it takes a lifetime (of hard work and alienation) and might be completely useless in the grand scheme of things, but it is what I'm trying to do.

Happy New Year to all.

We have been explaining that to people for decades.

Some of us have been living the lifestyle for decades.

That is not sufficient.  If it hasn't worked over the last half century why might one expect it would suddenly start working?

We must get pretty much everyone on board.  How do we do that, in your opinion? 

Neven

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #194 on: January 01, 2015, 11:24:00 PM »
We have been explaining that to people for decades.

Some of us have been living the lifestyle for decades.

That is not sufficient.  If it hasn't worked over the last half century why might one expect it would suddenly start working?

We must get pretty much everyone on board.  How do we do that, in your opinion?

Well, the theory is that it becomes clearer and clearer that we are bumping into limits. The theory of the last half century is becoming practice. But you're right, how to make people conscious of that and the underlying process causing the bumping?

On the other hand, I don't think that fighting symptoms will stop the bumping. Which is why I understand that some people believe it is all hopeless. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #195 on: January 01, 2015, 11:38:41 PM »
We will be damned if we don't do something other than preaching and complaining.  We'd be taking a huge chance were we to wait until climate change becomes extremely obvious to all.  Not just climate change, but climate change pain.

How about we accept the fact that a very large portion of humankind will continue to live for the near gain and do little to nothing to avoid the big pain further off?  Do we need to look further than cigarette/other drug addiction and obesity?

I'm now going to repeat myself.

Our best chance of avoiding severe climate change is to find ways to let people continue their present lifestyles pretty much as they are while getting GHG emissions under control.

We replace fossil fuels with renewable energy and notice no change on our grids.  Prices will likely fall a bit.

We replace the internal combustion engine with electric motors.  The cost of driving a mile will drop considerably and people won't have to stand around outside filling their tanks.  Or go to the car shop for maintenance/repairs as often.

We replace fossil fuel heating with more efficient buildings, heat pumps, and geothermal heating.  House become more comfortable and cheaper to heat.



wili

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #196 on: January 02, 2015, 12:29:15 AM »
Neven wrote:
Quote
...And then you show the alternative. By living it.

I find it extremely difficult because it takes a lifetime (of hard work and alienation) and might be completely useless in the grand scheme of things, but it is what I'm trying to do.

Happy New Year to all.

Thanks, neven, for this and for all you do here. I join you in wishing all good New Year.

I think we have to get a bit out of our comfort zones and go beyond "living it" to inviting others to start moving toward living it, too. Anderson and others have said that we need to reduce our impact by about 10 percent per year, every year for the foreseeable future.

This year, my daughter and I are going to move passed our current (mostly for me) vegetarianism to becoming (mostly) vegan. I plan to share this with relatives and friends (yes, partly through face book), in hopes to get them to share things they might do that would significantly decrease their impact and/or move the political process along.

I invite those who wish to to do the same. (Neven, if you think I should dedicate a separate thread to do this, please let me know.)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #197 on: January 03, 2015, 02:44:46 PM »
How do you fight back against Big Industry?  In the courts.
Quote
By caving to industry pressures, environmental regulatory agencies are failing to uphold their obligation to future generations, declared Mary Christina Wood, the author pushing a new legal framework to fight global warming, on the final episode of Moyers & Company.

Wood, a University of Oregon law professor who wrote Nature's Trust: Environmental Law for a New Ecological Age (2013; Cambridge University Press), advocates an idea called "atmospheric trust litigation," which takes the fate of the Earth into the courts, arguing that the planet’s atmosphere—its air, water, land, plants, and animals—are the responsibility of government, held in its trust to insure the survival of all generations to come.

"The heart of the approach is the public trust doctrine," she told her host, longtime journalist and political commentator Bill Moyers. "And it says that government is a trustee of the resources that support our public welfare and survival. And so a trust means that one entity or person manages a certain wealth, an endowment, so to speak, for the benefit of others. And in the case of the public trust, the beneficiaries are the present and future generations of citizens."

The theory underpins lawsuits filed by Our Children's Trust, which ask for the courts to order state and local governments and agencies to act more aggressively to bring down carbon emissions.

"If this nation relies on a stable climate system, and the very habitability of this nation and all of the liberties of young people and their survival interests are at stake the courts need to force the agencies and the legislatures to simply do their job," Wood explained.

Environmental laws passed in the 1970s "held a lot of promise" decades ago, she said but they've lost what little power they once possessed. Wood continued:

Americans thought they had solved the problem by getting these laws passed. What they didn't realize was that industries got inside the agencies through various means, through campaign contributions, through pressure on the system over and over again. And so one thing we have to keep in mind is we're nearing the end of our resources. And there are laws of nature that we have to comply with.

And those laws are supreme. And they determine whether we will survive on this planet. And they will determine the future conditions for our children. And so right now, our environmental laws are out of whack with the laws of nature. They are allowing destruction, whereas they should be structuring society to create a balance with the natural systems that support our lives.

And Wood disagreed with those who argue that climate change is a political issue to be dealt with outside the courts.

"Climate is not just an environmental issue," she said. "This is a civilizational issue. This is the biggest case that courts will get in terms of the potential harm in front of them, the population affected by that harm, and in terms of the urgency. Climate is mind-blowing. It can't be categorized any longer as an environmental issue."
http://www.commondreams.org/news/2015/01/02/citing-next-generations-lawsuits-demand-courts-recognize-mind-blowing-climate
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #198 on: January 03, 2015, 07:16:36 PM »
India's Modi raises solar investment target to $100 billion by 2022
Quote
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi... now wants companies from China, Japan, Germany and the United States to lead investments of $100 billion over seven years to boost India's solar energy capacity by 33 times to 100,000 megawatts (MW)....
...
Solar energy in India costs up to 50 percent more than power from sources like coal. But the government expects the rising efficiency and falling cost of solar panels, cheaper capital and increasing thermal tariffs to close the gap within three years.
http://www.trust.org/item/20150102093115-7z2da/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Money and Politics: The Drive for Climate Change Action
« Reply #199 on: January 05, 2015, 05:17:32 PM »
Cross-posted from Oil and Gas Issues thread:

Starting the global fuel-subsidy dump!

Indonesia slashes $18 billion from its fuel subsidy system, doubles spending on transportation, agriculture and public works.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-05/indonesia-doubling-transport-budget-with-10-billion-fuel-saving.html
« Last Edit: January 05, 2015, 05:22:57 PM by Sigmetnow »
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