I see it differently, I understand the societal and infrastructure changes that are needed to implement this fundamental transformation of our entire global society. I have a sense of the raw materials and implementation effort needed to achieve even the RCP 4.5 goals we discussed earlier.
Jacobson and Delucchi did what I would consider a decent job of defining the world's need for energy several years out and showed us that there is likely no problem with raw materials. And that the job was feasible in as little as 20 years with a concerted effort.
That paper was published in 2009. Five years later our wind turbines and solar panels produce more electricity "per pound" of raw materials. We have greatly improved our efficiencies so that we will be need less power.
http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/sad1109Jaco5p.indd.pdfWe are not, IMO, sufficiently "fired up" yet to fix things. We seem to get more concerned with each passing year. We now have 82% of US citizens saying that something needs to be done about rising sea levels. Next is for a significant majority to get concerned enough to start pushing hard on the government.
I'm looking at that "peak CO2 by ~2025", a drop in CO2 emissions by 40% to 70% by 2050, and a total phase out of fossil fuels by 2100 as a somewhat safe target. If it isn't safe enough we should understand that over the next few years. If we need to be fossil fuel free by 2050 we could finish the job we've started over the next 35 years.
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I feel it necessary to point out that I am
not advocating going slow.
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I think we have a significant task ahead of us. One in which we have to replace almost all of our coal and most of our natural gas with low carbon generation. We have to replace almost all of our vehicles with low carbon vehicles.
Over the next 35 years.
Over the next 35 years we will replace the majority of our existing coal plants with something. Coal plants wear out. Coal plants have an average lifespan in the US of 40 years.
Over the next 35 years well replace most of the cars on our roads with something. Twice.
If we need to cut CO2 emissions by 70% by 2050 then we need to replace about 2% of our coal and gas plants and about 2% of our vehicles with low carbon alternatives. That is, considering what we will have to do simply because of stuff aging out, a piece of cake.
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I feel it necessary to repeat that I am not advocating for going as slowly as possible.
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Now, here's what I think will happen.
1) Most countries are going to show up for next year's climate get-together with plan that is at least close to adequate.
2) Those with the poorest plans will find people snapping at their heels.
3) We'll continue along the 1% to 2% switch-over per year for a year or three.
4) People will become more concerned. Clean tech prices will drop and technology will improve. Clean tech industries will gain more political power.
5) We will see accelerating growth of clean tech solutions.
The rate of acceleration will be determined by changes in concern and falling prices.
If we get a very clear message from climate science that the "2025/2050/2100" targets are too low then we'll go balls to the wall and do the job in less than 20 years. Be done with fossil fuels in less than 20 years.