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Author Topic: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.  (Read 5831 times)

Bob Wallace

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We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« on: October 07, 2014, 08:25:22 AM »
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"So here are some highlights gleaned from the UBS (Swiss global financial services company) discussion with Navigant ( business consulting service):

Navigant estimates the cost of materials going into a battery at the Tesla Gigafactory on a processed chemical basis (not the raw ore) is $69/kWh [this metric is per kW per hour of operation].

The cost of the battery is only ~10-20% higher than the bill of materials – suggesting a potential long-term competitive price for Lithium Ion batteries could approach ~$100 per kWh. although conventional systems still selling for $500-700/kWh. But Navigant says that the broader market place will reach the levels Tesla is paying in the next two to three years."

"As Jaffe noted, the $180/kWh price paid by Tesla compares to about $1500/kWh even five years ago, maybe seven years ago when it was $1200 to $1500 per kilowatt-hour. “So $180 per kWh is the price of those batteries, not the manufacturing cost but the price that they’re paying for them,” he said.."

http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/battery-storage-costs-plunge-below100kwh-19365


Let me repeat - "Tesla currently pays Panasonic $180/kW for their batteries".

The threshold at which EVs sell for the same price as same-model ICEVs is about $250/kWh.  It seems that threshold has already been crossed and we're moving on.

If this is correct then we should see very affordable EVs in showrooms in only a couple of years.  (Likely prices will start high in order to make some extra off the early adopters and then work their way down.)

Manufacturing costs of ~$100/kWh doom the gasmobile.

Then there's this other tasty bit from the article about grid, not EV, storage...

Quote


Citigroup last week cited $230/kWh as the key mark where battery storage wins out over conventional generation and puts the fossil fuel incumbents into terminal decline.

 

Mind if I shout?

Puts the fossil fuel incumbents into terminal decline!

Sigmetnow

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2014, 03:25:08 PM »
Well, I for one am with you!  And several thousand other folks agreed in September, pushing Nissan LEAF and Tesla EVs to record sales. 
http://insideevs.com/tesla-model-s-sets-all-time-sales-record-in-u-s-in-september/

To help cushion the blows I anticipate from EV non-believers, I offer this rather freaky EV commercial.  :)
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1094779_captain-kirk-mr-spock-discuss-vw-electric-cars-in-new-ad-in-german
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jbatteen

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2014, 04:30:30 PM »
Currie now makes some very affordable and quality ebikes.  I've replaced my car with one, and it's pretty much the greatest thing ever.  I wonder if we won't see those catch on more in urban environments where bikes are practical.  It would be nice if people could re-examine the concept of a car entirely to see if it's really necessary.  I think the changes this battery technology brings to grid storage are just as important as the transportation implications.  Great stuff!!!

Bob Wallace

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2014, 01:39:43 AM »
I've personalized the chart that projects when EVs force out hybrids, PHEVs and ICEVs based on battery and gas prices.  I used the $180/kWh price Tesla is apparently paying Panasonic for batteries and the current US mainland gas price range of $3 to $3.60/kWh.



My oval suggests we've reached the end of the internal combustion engine for personal transportation.  It's just a matter of manufacturing switch-over and buyer education.

Musk has said that he expects the cost of batteries to fall another 30%, I think as soon as the new Tesla/Panasonic giga factory is up and running.  That would mean $125/kWh which is off the left side of the chart.  Gas would need to be under $2/gallon to keep ICEVs in the game.

Sigmetnow

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2014, 08:26:56 PM »
Utilities are already working to assure significant amounts of electric car charging won't overload the grid.

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Eight automakers participated in a test to see if utility companies can tell plug-in electric cars to temporarily stop charging to avoid overloading the power grid....

The test was aimed at solving one of the big problems confronting power providers as electric cars creep toward becoming a bigger proportion of cars on the road: how to keep them from overloading the power system, which could lead to local blackouts or brownouts.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/10/22/ford-electric-cars-charging/17705927/
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Shared Humanity

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2014, 09:23:11 PM »
Utilities are already working to assure significant amounts of electric car charging won't overload the grid.

Quote
Eight automakers participated in a test to see if utility companies can tell plug-in electric cars to temporarily stop charging to avoid overloading the power grid....

The test was aimed at solving one of the big problems confronting power providers as electric cars creep toward becoming a bigger proportion of cars on the road: how to keep them from overloading the power system, which could lead to local blackouts or brownouts.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/10/22/ford-electric-cars-charging/17705927/

There will be more charging during the night when electricity demand is typically lower.

Bob Wallace

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2014, 10:14:36 PM »
"There will be more charging during the night when electricity demand is typically lower."

Even  better would be to let utilities determine when EVs are charged.  EVs would then be dispatchable loads which could suck up wind and solar supply peaks, then drop out when demand is high compared to supply.

For the person who charges at night that would mean setting a minimum range for the next day.  Fifty miles for someone who normally drives 25 miles might be reasonable.  The utility could then decide when, between the time of plugging in and "leaving home" time the next morning, to charge.

The utility can pick the hours when they have the best supply:demand ratio.  During windy nights cars can be fully charged and on less windy nights some cars will be able to skip charging.

For those who will need to charge at work/school the process would be the same, but solar would be the main supply.

Sigmetnow

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2014, 01:00:57 AM »
"V2B" charging:  Nissan LEAFs connected to network allow "Vehicle To Building" energy supply/charging, saving money by reducing electricity demand when rate is highest.

https://www.2degreesnetwork.com/groups/2degrees-community/resources/japanese-office-building-uses-power-nissan-leafs-regulate-energy-bills/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2014, 05:10:31 PM »
Startup company in North Carolina is building electric pickup trucks for fleets.
Quote
B. BRADFORD: Other companies have converted conventional gas trucks to electric, but the heavier frames cut down on their range. EV Fleet's Condor has a gleaming blue fiberglass body to keep it light and no grill to cut down on drag, Agnew says.

AGNEW: And it is very quick - I mean, really, quick, like sportscar quick. And it's able to go over 100 miles on a charge and carry weight.
http://www.npr.org/2014/11/01/360719246/with-electric-cars-a-relative-success-electric-trucks-a-likely-next-step
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Sigmetnow

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2014, 01:37:36 AM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2014, 11:59:09 PM »
Audi has announced plans to debut a 300-mile, 5-passenger "family car" EV in January at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit.
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Having signed a battery deal worth billions of dollars with LG Chem and committing to adding plug-in versions of every model in its lineup, it seems the German automaker’s commitment to plug-in cars is a lot more solid than some people give it credit for.

We’ll get a first look at Audi’s electric future at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit this January.
http://gas2.org/2014/11/21/audi-bringing-300-mile-ev-detroit-auto-show/
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Bob Wallace

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2014, 03:35:49 AM »
Price?  When do we see the first break below $50k for a long range EV?

Is Audi going to give a bit more range and just drop in under Tesla?

The sweet spot, IMHO, is a solid 150 mile range (highway speed with AC or heater) for as low under $50k as possible.  Get it under $30k and sell them as fast as the paint dries.

Sigmetnow

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #12 on: December 03, 2014, 12:01:45 AM »
If you have access to the Science Channel:  "How Its Made: Dream Cars" has a 30-minute episode on the Tesla Model S, showing today, and Friday/Saturday 12/5&6.  Lots of interesting tidbits about the assembly process and make-up of the car.

(The show is also available for purchase from Amazon or iTunes.  Season 2, Episode 10.  First aired Nov 29, 2014.)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #13 on: December 03, 2014, 08:44:10 PM »
Bloomberg opinion:  heavy US car sales on Black Friday and today's cheaper gas don't mean overall big car sales are poised to increase.
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Besides, the U.S. auto market doesn't have the bandwidth for a major cheap-oil-fueled truck- and SUV-buying binge because easy auto credit, not low gas prices, has been fueling demand throughout the recovery. With auto-lending volume at a nine-year high, loan terms at an all-time high, delinquencies edging up and a shocking number of trade-ins coming in underwater, the auto credit boom has clearly seen its best days.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-03/cheap-oil-wont-help-detroit-sell-gas-guzzlers
« Last Edit: December 03, 2014, 08:53:25 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #14 on: December 03, 2014, 09:22:06 PM »
@insideclimate: Calif sells its 100,00th plug-in electric vehicle, as it chases goal of 1 million EVs on its roads in 5 years
http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2014/12/golden-state-passes-100000-plugins-threshold/
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Bob Wallace

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #15 on: December 04, 2014, 01:50:18 AM »
Bloomberg opinion:  heavy US car sales on Black Friday and today's cheaper gas don't mean overall big car sales are poised to increase.


If there is a big boom in less efficient vehicle purchases right now while fuel is cheap it puts the car companies in the position of having to increase efficient car sales in order to meet CAFE standards.

They would end up raising the prices of the least efficient models in order to slow sales and drop the prices of their best MPG models, EVs and PHEVs. 

This has happened before.  Demand for inefficient vehicles was high so manufacturers charged a lot more for them and sold their most efficient for very sweet prices.  Some have claimed that they were losing money on efficient vehicle sales and making it up on inefficient vehicle sales.

Of course the nice thing now is that since PBO negotiated new CAFE standards they also apply to light trucks/SUVs.  Before those sales weren't controlled by mileage standards.

Summary: at worst a temporary blip to be evened out during the rest of the model year.  Perhaps by discounting EVs and PHEVs where the most gain is found.

Bob Wallace

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #16 on: December 04, 2014, 11:55:33 PM »
Starting in October of this year China is manufacturing more EVs than the rest of the world combined.   9,728 in November vs. 8,225 for the 'rest of us'.

This is great news because it means that battery production is moving more than twice as fast as many realized.  More batteries = lower cost.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1095735_china-overtook-u-s-in-monthly-electric-car-sales-two-months-ago

Sigmetnow

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #17 on: December 05, 2014, 09:13:30 PM »
Quote
Why Elon Musk's Batteries Scare the Hell Out of the Electric Company

Yet Musk’s so-called gigafactory may soon become an existential threat to the 100-year-old utility business model. The facility will also churn out stationary battery packs that can be paired with rooftop solar panels to store power. Already, a second company led by Musk, SolarCity Corp. (SCTY), is packaging solar panels and batteries to power California homes and companies including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT)
...
100,000 Plug-ins

In California, where 40 percent of the nation’s plug-in cars have been sold, about half of electric vehicle owners have solar or want to install it, according to a February survey by the Center for Sustainable Energy, a green-energy advocate. More than 100,000 plug-ins have been sold in California, according to data from HybridCars.com and Baum & Associates, though EVs make up less than 1 percent of all U.S. car sales.
...
Tesla sees itself taking on a grand mission -- not just to lower emissions from cars and trucks, but to have a societal impact. “If we only do it on the transportation side, we ignore the utility side, and we are probably ignoring half of our responsibility,” said Mateo Jaramillo, director of powertrain business development at Tesla Motors, at the recent Platts California Power and Gas Conference in San Francisco.

Tesla and Oncor Electric Delivery, owner of the largest power-line network in Texas, have discussed a $2 billion investment in stationary battery storage to solve the problem of fluctuating output from wind and solar. Tesla and SolarCity are separate entities and only share management at the board level.

Smart Home
...
The time when residents can charge their electric cars with excess solar stored in their home batteries is “not decades away, that is years away,” said SunPower CEO Tom Werner.
...
In June, EEI issued a call to action, saying converting people from gasoline cars to electric vehicles is nearly essential for survival. The report concluded: “The bottom line is that the electric utility industry needs the electrification of the transportation sector to remain viable and sustainable in the long run.”

To that point, executives at some of the nation’s largest utilities from New York to California say they are preparing their grids for more plug-in cars, reaching out to automakers and working with regulators to make sure customers as well as the utilities benefit from the trend.
...
Grid Upgrades

There is yet another side to the argument -- can utilities manage the load?

“Electric vehicles can be the best thing to ever happen to our industry or the worst thing to ever happen to our industry,” said James Avery, a senior vice president at San Diego Gas & Electric.

Avery doesn’t foresee most customers leaving the grid, but does see the risk of an influx of electric cars that overtaxes the network. SDG&E, whose territory has the highest penetration of plug-ins in the U.S., plans to spend as much as $3.2 billion to upgrade its grid. It already offers cheaper rates for EV owners to charge overnight when power demand is lowest.

Southern California Edison is planning to spend about $9.2 billion through 2017 to allow the two-way flow of electricity on its system, said Edison International CEO Ted Craver.

“We are certainly big supporters of electric transportation,” Craver said.
...
“Utilities should look at Elon as a brilliant entrepreneur and innovator who is helping create the new electricity industry and betting against him hasn’t worked so well,” Lovins said. “I would look at ways to benefit from what he is bringing to the market.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-05/musk-battery-works-fill-utilities-with-fear-and-promise.html
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Bob Wallace

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #18 on: December 06, 2014, 06:08:23 AM »
OK, SoCal Edison and SDG&E have figured it out.

Make way for EVs.  Grids are going to take care of charging issues because that's replacement market for them.  EV charging will replace market share lost to end-user solar and efficiency.

Wonder how quickly this will spread to other utilities?  I'd predict the rest of CA is on board by the end of the first quarter of 2015.  ConEdison probably will be an early entry. 

Sigmetnow

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #19 on: December 11, 2014, 08:45:58 PM »
China needs more chargers
Quote
In the U.S. and Germany, “range anxiety” -- or a driver’s fear of running out of power before reaching the nearest charging station -- has been an obstacle to electric-car adoption. The lack of unified payment systems is another challenge, with different charging networks using incompatible electronic payment cards.

In China, many car owners, like Wu, don’t have their own garages or parking spaces at home where they can charge their plug-ins overnight.

Yan Xuefei, also a Shanghai resident, wound up striking a deal that lets him charge his Qin at night at a factory near his apartment. The 27-year-old engineer can’t charge the car at his apartment complex because the limited designated parking spots are all taken. Building managers at his office also won’t let him do it there, he said.

Still, the factory’s parking lot is uncovered, and its managers forbid him from charging the car when it rains, saying they fear safety issues like short circuits.

“The government has given generous subsidies for us to buy the cars and publicized the merits of new-energy vehicles,” Yan said. “But so many car owners can’t easily charge their cars as they don’t have designated parking spots.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-10/china-offers-billions-to-subsidize-electric-cars-on-gas.html
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Bob Wallace

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Re: We May Be Plugging In Sooner Than We Expected.
« Reply #20 on: December 11, 2014, 10:37:11 PM »
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In China, many car owners, like Wu, don’t have their own garages or parking spaces at home where they can charge their plug-ins overnight.

Growing pains.

In the early days of automobiles drivers outside of major urban areas had to purchase drums of gasoline and have them shipped to their houses.  If they wanted to take a long trip they had to ship fuel ahead by horse and wagon.