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sidd

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Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #451 on: April 25, 2018, 08:18:43 PM »
China install 9.65 GW of solar in Q1 2018.  That's up 22% over Q1 2017.

The grid problems which had left solar curtailed 20% have apparently been addressed which means that previously installed solar will make a larger contribution to the grid going forward.

China installed 52.83 GW of solar in 2017.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/24/china-installs-nearly-10-gigawatts-of-solar-in-first-quarter-up-22/

It is expected that solar will generate more electricity than wind and nuclear in 2018, taking third place behind coal and hydro.  This is an extremely rapid ramp up.

AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #452 on: April 25, 2018, 09:53:19 PM »
China's Belt and Road initiative, BRI, could make their Paris Pact pledges look good, while having a large negative impact of Earth Systems by transfer environmental degradation from China to its neighbors:

Title: "China’s Belt and Road poised to transform the Earth, but at what cost?"

https://news.mongabay.com/2018/04/chinas-belt-and-road-poised-to-transform-the-earth-but-at-what-cost/

Extract: "
•   The BRI is the largest infrastructure initiative in human history, and includes the Silk Road Economic Belt, a land transportation route running from China to Southern Europe via Central Asia and the Middle East, and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, a sea route connecting the port of Shanghai to Venice, Italy, via India and Africa.

•   The potential environmental impacts of the mega-construction program could be severe, warn analysts. China has committed to BRI environmental and sustainability standards, at least on paper, but the sheer size of the initiative, along with China’s past environmental record and its autocratic institutions, are cause for deep concern.

One question of great concern to environmentalists is transparency. History has shown that rigorous environmental protections are most likely to be instituted and enforced in open societies where an independent judicial branch, media, activists and public can freely challenge government and business interests. China has no such history, and its construction projects around the world have long been plagued by a troubling environmental record."
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Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #453 on: April 25, 2018, 10:07:18 PM »
Since China seems to be dedicated to electrifying their transportation and replacing coal generation with low carbon sources I would expect the New Silk Road would mean a significant decrease in carbon emissions.

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #454 on: April 26, 2018, 02:06:09 AM »
Since China seems to be dedicated to electrifying their transportation and replacing coal generation with low carbon sources I would expect the New Silk Road would mean a significant decrease in carbon emissions.


The huge drop in air travel alone will make BRI a huge environmental winner.


Centralized governments have the advantage of being able to pivot rapidly during emergencies. We are facing a number of emergency situations in which the slowly churning wheels of democracy may prove a hinderance.


Compare hurricane response in Cuba to the responses in Puerto Rico, New Orleans, or Florida.
Terry

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #455 on: May 07, 2018, 09:07:25 PM »
China's dependency on imported oil, especially from the Middle East, is a huge security issue for them (just look up "Straits of Malacca"). So electrification plays to both security and environmental issues, as well as helping drive China's thrust into the "next economy".

Will be very interesting to see when electrification gains the scale to cause China's oil imports to fall, that will be a major geopolitical and economic event. With increasing oil and gas imports from Russia, and the US fracking its way to "energy independence", the medium term scenario for the Middle East and North Africa oil and gas producers could be very dark.  If China also decides to favour Iran for oil and gas imports (protecting the BRI), the Saudis could be in real trouble.

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #456 on: May 07, 2018, 09:49:04 PM »
China's dependency on imported oil, especially from the Middle East, is a huge security issue for them (just look up "Straits of Malacca"). So electrification plays to both security and environmental issues, as well as helping drive China's thrust into the "next economy".

Will be very interesting to see when electrification gains the scale to cause China's oil imports to fall, that will be a major geopolitical and economic event. With increasing oil and gas imports from Russia, and the US fracking its way to "energy independence", the medium term scenario for the Middle East and North Africa oil and gas producers could be very dark.  If China also decides to favour Iran for oil and gas imports (protecting the BRI), the Saudis could be in real trouble.

I'm looking for an oil crash within the next five years similar to what has happened to coal.  At least clear signs that the crash has started which will mean a large decrease in oil company values and a major slowdown in new well development.

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #457 on: May 07, 2018, 11:04:27 PM »
Between being one of the epicentres for climate change, the poisoned legacy of great power politics, massively expanded populations grown on the back of the oil boom, and drastically reduced oil revenues the Middle East could be a way more of a shit-show than it is currently. Just imagine the Saudi rulers not being able to afford the bribes and security needed to keep their population from taking them out. Trump may be doing Iran a favour by driving it further into the arms of China and the BRI, it desperately needs to diversify its economy.

Perhaps us "westerners" will not care about the Middle East anymore once we don't need the stuff thats under their lands. If a coup takes place in a country with no MSM reporters or western military is it really important? All those skyscrapers in Abu Dhabi could look like incredible malinvestments.

ivica

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #458 on: June 18, 2018, 07:10:41 PM »
https://gbtimes.com/china-finland-cargo-train-link-extends-to-norway-and-sweden

"The first direct cargo train route linking China and Finland is being extended to Norway and Sweden as part of a Finnish city’s plans to establish itself as a Northern European logistics hub for China-bound rail freight.

The route linking the southeastern Finnish city of Kouvola with Xi’an and Zhengzhou in central China was opened last November and the service has run in both directions every week since April. It takes 10 to 12 days to complete the one-way journey from Finland through Russia and Kazakhstan to China, compared to eight weeks when shipping by sea."

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #459 on: June 18, 2018, 08:57:44 PM »
Quote
It takes 10 to 12 days to complete the one-way journey from Finland through Russia and Kazakhstan to China, compared to eight weeks when shipping by sea."

The time difference is going to take a tremendous amount of freight off the seas and onto land. 

We know how to run trains on very low carbon electricity.

BenB

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #460 on: June 19, 2018, 12:54:28 PM »
I don't know whether this belongs here or in the cars thread, but 97,000 EVs were sold in China in May, including 12,624 of the market-leading BAIC EC-Series:

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2018/06/china-may-2018.html

Several of the cars have recently upgraded batteries, including the BAIC Ex-series crossover with a 48kWh battery and the BYD e5 with a 61 kWh battery.

gerontocrat

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #461 on: June 19, 2018, 01:30:40 PM »
Hullo BenB,

An entry in the cars,more cars.... thread is a good idea. China is really ahead of the game. Even when Tesla gets to 5 6 7 8 9 10 thousand cars a week, it is likely China will have got way ahead.

I don't know whether this belongs here or in the cars thread, but 97,000 EVs were sold in China in May, including 12,624 of the market-leading BAIC EC-Series:

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2018/06/china-may-2018.html

Several of the cars have recently upgraded batteries, including the BAIC Ex-series crossover with a 48kWh battery and the BYD e5 with a 61 kWh battery.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #462 on: June 19, 2018, 04:07:21 PM »
China's impact right now is to cause other car companies to develop good, affordable EVs if they want part of the Chinese market.  That means that those companies will have models and experience that they can use in western markets as demand switches from ICEVs to EVs.

Chinese manufacturers may have all the market they can handle inside China for some time as their growing middle class buys their first cars and the Chinese government pushes buyers away from ICEVs.  We might not see China exporting many EVs or building factories outside China for some years.  But their in country use of EVs may speed up the transition outside China.

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #463 on: June 20, 2018, 08:32:08 PM »
BP's 2018 Statistical Review of Global Energy is now online.  2017 data.  Seems like a good time to see how China is doing since it's a major GHG country.

Overall fossil fuel use increased some from 2016 but it could be mostly noise as China plateaus out.  It will take a few more years or a drastic increase/decrease to determine.  Coal consumption was down a small amount with oil and natural gas increasing.



Fossil fuel use for electricity is declining in terms of the percentage of electricity generated.  Coal is losing market share.



Low carbon (hydro, wind, nuclear, and solar) are taking market share away from fossil fuels.  Over the last six years low carbon generation has taken about eight percent of the market from fossil fuels.



Non-hydro renewables and nuclear have been  growing but not so much hydro in terms of percentage of generation.



Wind caught up and passed nuclear fairly quickly.  It is expected that solar will move higher than nuclear this year or next.



Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #464 on: July 03, 2018, 01:52:48 AM »
China's emissions may have peaked:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-carbon/china-carbon-emissions-in-retreat-after-structural-break-in-economy-study-idUSKBN1JS1Y4

Quote
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell from 2014 to 2016 and might already have peaked, according to a study published on Monday, with structural economic changes allowing Beijing to meet targets earlier than expected.

China vowed before the Paris climate talks in 2015 to bring CO2 emissions to a peak by “around 2030”, and the country’s top climate official, Xie Zhenhua, has already said it could meet the pledge ahead of time.

But the study, published by Nature Geoscience, said “in retrospect, the commitment may have been fulfilled even as it was being made”, with emissions hitting a record 9.53 gigatonnes in 2013 and declining in the following three years, dropping to 9.2 gigatonnes in 2016.

While emissions rose by an average of 9.3 percent per year from 2000 to 2013, China’s economy underwent a “structural break” in 2014, and is shifting to less carbon-intensive high technology sectors, it said.

“Unless there is a significant amount of change - a large government intervention like the stimulus package of 2008 - then China’s emissions will stabilize and gradually go down,” said Dabo Guan, a professor of climate change economics at the University of East Anglia (UEA), one of the authors of the study.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #465 on: August 17, 2019, 08:01:41 PM »
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/15/climate-china-global-translations-1662345
Often considered the bogeyman of global climate diplomacy, China is making greater and faster strides than expected away from fossil fuels — becoming the world’s largest investor in solar and wind technology and boasting more jobs in solar energy than in coal-mining. It’s all part of a longterm economic strategy to dominate in critical technologies.
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rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #466 on: August 18, 2019, 10:40:35 PM »
China's emissions may have peaked:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-carbon/china-carbon-emissions-in-retreat-after-structural-break-in-economy-study-idUSKBN1JS1Y4

Quote
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell from 2014 to 2016 and might already have peaked, according to a study published on Monday, with structural economic changes allowing Beijing to meet targets earlier than expected.

China vowed before the Paris climate talks in 2015 to bring CO2 emissions to a peak by “around 2030”, and the country’s top climate official, Xie Zhenhua, has already said it could meet the pledge ahead of time.

But the study, published by Nature Geoscience, said “in retrospect, the commitment may have been fulfilled even as it was being made”, with emissions hitting a record 9.53 gigatonnes in 2013 and declining in the following three years, dropping to 9.2 gigatonnes in 2016.

While emissions rose by an average of 9.3 percent per year from 2000 to 2013, China’s economy underwent a “structural break” in 2014, and is shifting to less carbon-intensive high technology sectors, it said.

“Unless there is a significant amount of change - a large government intervention like the stimulus package of 2008 - then China’s emissions will stabilize and gradually go down,” said Dabo Guan, a professor of climate change economics at the University of East Anglia (UEA), one of the authors of the study.

China CO2 emissions went up 2.7% in 2018, following 1.7% growth in 2017. Doesn't look like "stabilize and gradually go down" to me. Carbon brief is an excellent source for up to date CO2 emissions data:

Quote
The stronger growth in 2018 indicates that 2017 was not a blip

Quote
Like in 2017, coal consumption grew again, after having gone down from 2014 to 2016. Also like in 2017, the biggest single contribution to coal consumption growth was increased electricity production, which grew at 7.7% in 2018 and accounts for roughly half of coal consumption in China.

From 2014 to 2016, expanded renewable and nuclear power generation was able to cover slow growth in overall electricity consumption. This allowed coal-fired power generation to fall. In 2017 and 2018, however, electricity demand grew so fast that new low-carbon sources could not keep up.

Quote
China’s oil (+6.5%) and gas consumption (+17.7%) grew rapidly in 2018, continuing recent trends. Even though they account for a much smaller share of the country’s CO2 emissions than coal, this rapid growth helped push the growth in total CO2 emissions well above the rate for coal alone.

Due to discrepancies between coal production (higher) and coal consumption (not as much higher) numbers, the actual CO2 increase could be as high as 4% for 2018!

Quote
Whatever the case, the discrepancy over coal means that overall CO2 growth could be as high as around 4% – compared to 2.3% reported in the communique – even before accounting for other sources of uncertainty that we usually include in our analyses. Those factors push the uncertainty range even wider, to -0.4% to +6.7%.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-chinas-co2-emissions-grew-slower-than-expected-in-2018

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #467 on: September 04, 2019, 06:16:59 PM »
Chinese Belt and Road plan ‘may result in 2.7C warming’
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/09/02/chinese-belt-road-plan-may-result-2-7c-warming/
Quote
China’s multi-trillion dollar global investment plans could blow the 2C warming limit set by the Paris Agreement without curbs on pollution, a new study said on Monday.

The 126 countries in the Belt and Road region now account for 28% of global emissions, but on their current trajectory, that could rise to 66% by 2050, researchers, led by Ma Jun, a special advisor to China’s central bank, said.

That could mean global carbon levels would rise to nearly double the level needed to keep temperature increases to below 2C, a major goal of the Paris Agreement.

“If B&RCs (Belt and Road countries) follow historical carbon-intense growth patterns… it may be enough to result in a 2.7 degree path, even if the rest of the world adheres to 2 degree levels of emissions,” the report said.
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blumenkraft

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #468 on: September 04, 2019, 06:52:33 PM »
That strikes me as very pessimistic. In 30 years, oil and gas will be so expensive compared to renewables, China wouldn't be competitive anymore if they still relied on fossils.

So it's either less CO2 emissions because they switched to renewables or less CO2 emissions due to a broken down economy.
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rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #469 on: September 05, 2019, 03:17:51 AM »
That strikes me as very pessimistic. In 30 years, oil and gas will be so expensive compared to renewables, China wouldn't be competitive anymore if they still relied on fossils.

So it's either less CO2 emissions because they switched to renewables or less CO2 emissions due to a broken down economy.

The developing countries are in a great position as they will be adding net new electricity generating plants (no sunk costs) and increasing motorcycles/trains/buses/trams/cars with all the advances being made by China etc. available to them. It may take a few more years, but new new fossil fuel plants/transport will become a thing of the past, so the CO2 emissions growth curve may flatten.

Shame is that we need to have it pointing downwards big time and the UN IPCC math that the report relies upon massively understates the probable temperature response.That needs to rich nations to step up to the plate.


blumenkraft

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #470 on: September 05, 2019, 07:17:36 AM »
Agreed, Rboyd.

Long term the math doesn't work out for fossils anymore (30 years). Hard to say what happens short term though (within 10 years). I guess in this timeframe we do see higher growth year by year and a sharp cut after that.

Implications are known to the considerate reader. We really should have started to phase out 30 years ago...
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TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #471 on: September 06, 2019, 09:41:37 AM »
Agreed, Rboyd.

Long term the math doesn't work out for fossils anymore (30 years). Hard to say what happens short term though (within 10 years). I guess in this timeframe we do see higher growth year by year and a sharp cut after that.

Implications are known to the considerate reader. We really should have started to phased out 30 years ago...


If we had ended ff use 30 years ago we'd be faced with a difficult, but solvable problem today.


I don't believe "winning" is possible for most of the world's population. We might still be able to mitigate the very worst, if we were all willing to sacrifice today for the benefit of generations yet unborn. We won't make these sacrifices so ...


Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #472 on: September 06, 2019, 10:54:45 PM »
China’s Industrial Heartland Fears Impact of Tougher Emissions Policies
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/04092019/china-climate-change-policy-economic-slowdown-impact-industrial-heartland-factory-shutdown
Quote
Chinese regulators have come down hard on polluting industries in recent years. Around Hebei province, the impact of Beijing's industrial reorganization is profound. Small towns like Dazhang village are now surrounded by shuttered and partially dismantled factories. Chained gates and idle yards line the streets.

The tension between China's slowdown and its climate ambitions has global implications, as world leaders prepare for a 2020 deadline for new international targets to reduce emissions that contribute to global warming.

But after two decades of near double-digit expansion, gross domestic product has slowed to 6.2 percent growth in the second quarter — the weakest official pace since the early 1990s.

If China, the world's second-largest economy, does not get tough on its emissions, other countries might not be willing to either.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #473 on: September 13, 2019, 09:49:39 PM »
UN ‘very confident’ China plans to raise climate ambition
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/09/11/un-confident-china-plans-raise-climate-ambition/
Quote
Speaking ahead of the high-level meeting convened by UN secretary general in New York on 23 September, UN special envoy on climate change Luis Alfonso de Alba said he was “very confident that China will come to the summit with a clear commitment on a number of areas… with a much higher level of ambition”.

Referring to a statement signed by China, France and UN chief António Guterres on the margins of the G20 summit in July, De Alba said the communique had “made some important announcements”.

“One of them is a commitment of China to enhance their [national climate plan] and to come in September with a proposal on that,” he said.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #474 on: September 24, 2019, 10:26:02 PM »
Jerry Brown partners with China to fight climate change
https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/09/23/jerry-brown-uc-berkeley-china-climate-institute/
Quote
Jerry Brown isn’t finished fighting climate change just yet.

The former California governor is launching a new partnership with China and UC Berkeley — the California-China Climate Institute — to research new solutions for cutting carbon emissions and averting the disastrous impact of global warming, he announced Monday.

“We want to provide a forum and an open line of communication between Americans and Chinese on one of the most important challenges we face,” Brown said in an earlier interview. The plan is to “do everything we can not only to contribute to China and California carbon reduction, but being a force for the rest of the world to emulate.”
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Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #475 on: September 26, 2019, 06:46:42 PM »
The linked article states that China has phased out subsidies for renewable energy products and increased investment in fossil fuel projects.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/why-chinas-renewable-energy-transition-is-losing-momentum

Quote
In addition, as renewable energy prices have fallen and the central government has grown increasingly concerned about the impact of the U.S.-China trade war on China’s economy, renewable subsidies are being phased out. Wind and solar facilities must now compete directly at auction with other forms of power generation. China’s green energy sector seems increasingly capable of winning that competition, but solar energy installations are nevertheless expected to drop by about half this year, from a peak of 53 gigawatts in 2017.

And while curtailing subsidies for wind and solar power, the central government has sharply increased financial support for what it calls “new energy” extraction, which includes fracking of shale gas and separating methane from coal. Those subsidies are an important reason behind China’s rising CO2 emissions.

Quote
To reduce the country’s CO2 emissions, experts say it is crucial that power produced in provinces like Qinghai be transmitted seamlessly to the industrial and population centers along China’s coast. Many larger renewable projects are located in remote landlocked provinces like Qinghai, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia. Until more transmission lines are built and government reforms are enacted that better enable power to be transferred to other provinces, far-western “battery provinces” like Qinghai will mainly end up generating power for themselves.

What’s needed, Tu says, is for the central government to eliminate barriers of inter-provincial power trading and to simultaneously give renewables priority in the transfer and dispatching of electricity.

Alvin Lin, an energy and climate expert with the Natural Resources Defense Council who has worked in China for more than a decade, says that an important near-term element in the climate battle is to sustain the momentum of China’s renewable energy drive so that the country’s CO2 emissions peak before 2030. Many experts increasingly argue that the 2030 target date is insufficient.

“We and others would like to push for an earlier carbon peaking around 2025,” Lin says. “China would need to stop building new coal plants now and bring coal power capacity and generation down rapidly.”


rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #476 on: September 28, 2019, 02:04:25 AM »
The linked article states that China has phased out subsidies for renewable energy products and increased investment in fossil fuel projects.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/why-chinas-renewable-energy-transition-is-losing-momentum

Sad, but makes sense from a short term energy security point of view. China's natural gas demand is exploding, so they want to produce as much domestically as possible rather than importing from the Middle East and Australia etc.

They have cut the EV subsidies and now also the wind and pv subsidies, very sad. They should be going full throttle on these things.

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #477 on: September 28, 2019, 06:28:36 AM »
^^
The "Power of Siberia" pipeline was charged up at the end of August and will begin pumping gas this December.
This turns China's energy situation on it's head. Cheap Russian gas as opposed to expensive LNG, no US dollars required, and a big expansion project already on the drawing boards.


The new low priced energy will make renewables a hard sell & will alleviate the need to subsidize projects that no longer make sense financially, even if they do lessen the need for imported energy.
A China with an abundance of low cost energy will be hard for anyone to compete with. If Europe follows Trump's dictates and shuts down Nord Stream 2 European manufacturing will pay a very heavy price.
Terry


Hefaistos

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #478 on: September 28, 2019, 06:50:00 AM »
... If Europe follows Trump's dictates and shuts down Nord Stream 2 ...

Won't happen! Trump just uses some russiaphobic political arguments to promote US business interests, as the USA hopes to be able to export its expensive LNG instead of the cheap Russian one.

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #479 on: September 28, 2019, 07:03:21 AM »
... If Europe follows Trump's dictates and shuts down Nord Stream 2 ...

Won't happen! Trump just uses some russiaphobic political arguments to promote US business interests, as the USA hopes to be able to export its expensive LNG instead of the cheap Russian one.
I hope you're right.
Terry

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #480 on: September 28, 2019, 09:01:54 AM »
I find interesting how posters here see increasing dependence on Russian fossil fuels as a good thing.

Both China and Europe also have the possibility to develop local zero carbon energy sources.
In PIOMAS we trust

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #481 on: September 28, 2019, 06:14:29 PM »
From a geopolitical point of view it is very intelligent for China to reorient their natural gas and oil imports to friendly nations with over-land transportation. Same as attempting to ramp up domestic natural gas production. This helps remove their oil and gas imports as a weakness that the USA can utilize in a conflict (just like with Japan just before Pearl Harbour). They have also built up a very large strategic oil reserve.

They should also be going full speed with EV's as they replace imported oil with domestic electricity production (coal, natural gas, nuclear and renewables). Their removal of subsidies to EV's and the renewable sector is very short sighted geopolitically and really bad for the climate. Even at 80% coal share in electricity production EV's generate less CO2 due to the efficiency of the electrical engine (and power generating stations).

Wildcatter

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #482 on: September 28, 2019, 06:57:42 PM »
From a geopolitical point of view it is very intelligent for China to reorient their natural gas and oil imports to friendly nations with over-land transportation. Same as attempting to ramp up domestic natural gas production. This helps remove their oil and gas imports as a weakness that the USA can utilize in a conflict (just like with Japan just before Pearl Harbour). They have also built up a very large strategic oil reserve.

They should also be going full speed with EV's as they replace imported oil with domestic electricity production (coal, natural gas, nuclear and renewables). Their removal of subsidies to EV's and the renewable sector is very short sighted geopolitically and really bad for the climate. Even at 80% coal share in electricity production EV's generate less CO2 due to the efficiency of the electrical engine (and power generating stations).

Removing subsidies actually makes perfect sense for China, although it does suck for climate. Although, it could potentially even out.

They "plant 1000 seeds", scale up, start to corner markets, and then they drop subsidies to encourage further cost efficiency, separating the wheat from the chaffe, and monopolize global markets. That's how they do it, and it's very efficient. They did it with solar, EVs, and will do it with batteries (probably). And they've cornered silicon, solar, and will outpace everyone in battery production by multiple times, while having the biggest EV market that will dominate exports to SE Asia, and anyone who imports them, as well as having a huge presence in global electric buses.

It's actually very effective, in a cutthroat kinda way. They are very good at it. I say it may even out, because they drop costs so significantly through scale, and then optimization + innovation and iteration in manufacturing. They're basically the reason why solar is as cheap as it is, and why batteries will drop in costs as well, at economies of scale. So, it's a catch 22.

What we can expect is that they'll do a "tick, tock" type installation with renewables. They're also going to scale up offshore wind with all their coastal population. By tick tock, I mean they installed a large amount, now they're letting domestic suppliers scale up massively and corner markets, also dropping costs, and when this new expansion has optimized processes and cost efficiency with a whole bunch more supply, they'll do another series of large installs, so it doesn't hamper their global supply too much and they maximize value domestically.

It also has the effect of letting them catch up on grid utilization. As can be expected, they had a good amount of grid problems adding all those renewables, lot of curtailment, bottleneck issues, transmission/distribution. A period of slower growth means they can alleviate some of these issues, while letting them plan better for the future. In the near term, they'll likely be adding grid storage while building their grid, to try and get the most effective options, to aid in transmission/distribution and ancillary services for example.

I guess the positive with China is knowing that they actually want energy independence. Besides the global markets, their rate of oil consumption was projected to be astronomical, which has pushed them towards EVs more. Removing subsidies was actually to reduce costs as fast as possible. No one should be too surprised if they renew some EV subsidies in the future, when their markets stabilize a bit and EVs are even more cost efficient and producing more at scale.

It's no surprise about natural gas, it allows them to flex their muscles in Central Asia as well as strategic agreements in the Middle East, part of the Belt n Road. It also allows them to get plentiful of cheap supply, and to them it's less damaging than coal, so it's a win/win for them as it also helps influence + good faith with all those countries as well as pipelines and $$.

I don't really agree with their methods, but removing subsidies has been an effective way to reduce costs. They'll probably renew some of them at a later date. They know their current rates of consumption are basically unsustainable, so that's a silver lining I guess. There is a method to their madness though, so we'll see. If the world goes into a recession, it will probably hurt renewables + EVs, but I imagine we'll see efforts pick up again in the near future. Hopefully, anyway.

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #483 on: September 28, 2019, 09:55:09 PM »
Thanks Wildcatter!
Well written & logical.
Terry

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #484 on: September 29, 2019, 09:36:29 PM »
A extremely rational analysis - welcome Wildcatter!

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #485 on: October 01, 2019, 06:13:35 AM »
Guest post: Why China’s CO2 emissions grew 4% during first half of 2019

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Estimates based on preliminary data for the first half of 2019, compared to the same period last year, indicate that:

China’s coal demand increased by 3%;
Oil demand was up 6%;
Gas demand rose by 12%; and
Cement production increased by 7%.

Quote
At the same time, the debate about energy targets for the 14th five-year plan, to run from 2021 to 2025, and a longer-term plan until 2035, has taken off in earnest.

The five-year plans for different sectors will be published in 2021-22 and will include detailed targets for different energy sources, power generating capacity, share of coal in total energy and so on. This plan will be immensely important in charting the country’s future energy policy, as almost all detailed targets are currently for 2020. One of the proposals being discussed is adopting a CO2 emission cap for 2025.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-chinas-co2-emissions-grew-4-during-first-half-of-2019

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #486 on: October 01, 2019, 10:13:28 PM »
The Global Rise of China: Alvin Y So and Yin-wah Chu

Read this really good book on the development of the Chinese economy over the past few decades, the author refers to the policies as "State Neoliberalism" with neoliberalism (deregulation, privatization, market orientation) being used to maintain the state (and the Party) in power instead of handing power over to the corporations.

Seems they still believe in the mixed economy, where natural monopolies and state-subsidized businesses (e.g. banking, energy supply, railways, arms manufacturers, aerospace etc.) should be owned by the state and the basic costs should be somewhat protected from rentier corporations. Also that anti-competitive behaviour should be punished and restrained - the new business social credit system is an interesting move in that direction.

An authoritarian bureaucracy overseeing what used to be called "embedded capitalism" prior to the 1970's, with oversight to make sure that the market actually functions more for the benefit of society. Still lots of problems though, especially with local corruption and exploitation which is permitted as a cost of rapid development, especially outside the major cities.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-28/china-s-social-credit-for-companies-sparks-alarm-eucham-warns

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #487 on: October 10, 2019, 01:14:44 AM »
China is on track to meet its [so2 and no and particulate] emissions goals for 2020

The good news - the local air pollution from coal plants in China has been cleaned up a lot.
The bad news - the climate cooling levels of SO2 from Chinese coal plants have been reduced a lot

Quote
The team found that between 2014 and 2017, China's annual power plant emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and particulate matter dropped by 65%, 60% and 72% each year respectively from 2.21, 3.11 and 0.52 million tonnes in 2014 to 0.77, 1.26 and 0.14 million tonnes in 2017, which is in compliance with ULE standards.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/10/191007113327.htm.