I do like your generally sunny disposition
But as someone pointed out in another thread, to stay within the less-than-2C-above-pre-industrial level (or at least have a 50-50 chance of doing so), we had to keep CO2eq to below 450ppm. We blew past that and are now at about 485ppm.
So, yeah, it would be nice if we didn't get way further off the sustainable climate tracks than we already are, but...I guess today my role is to curb enthusiasm, it seems.
http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/global_warming/emissions-target-report.pdfSee the bolded section on first page of executive summary, and the explanatory text just above. At 500 ppm CO2eq, which we will almost certainly reach within the next very few years, we will have 2/3 chance of exceeding 2C and 50-50 chance of hitting 3C above pre-industrial temps.
At this point we have to not only hope that your perceived plateau materializes, but that it turns into a fairly precipitous drop quite soon...in time to avoid the many and large and fast exacerbating feedbacks that are waiting in the wings, if they have not already started to kick in.
(Or that heretofore unexpected and unknown 'negative' damping feedback of even greater size and speed suddenly kick in from out of nowhere and help save our sorry a$$es in spite of ourselves and beyond what we deserve.)
That's a lot of hopin'!
ETA: Actually, I see that robertscribbler has estimate CO2e levels for 2017 to be at around 493ppm:
Add in methane and other greenhouse gasses and you end up with a heat forcing roughly equivalent to 493 parts per million of CO2 (CO2e) during 2017 at present rates of increase.
This level is very close to the maximum Miocene boundary level of 500 parts per million — a total amount of heat forcing that likely hasn’t been seen in 20-30 million years.
https://robertscribbler.com/2017/04/26/key-heat-trapping-gas-crosses-410-parts-per-million-threshold-highest-level-in-past-5-20-million-years/This article links to NOAA figures that put CO2e levels at 485ppm back in 2015...so I guess I was off by a few years and a few parts per million above...my brain, as usual, is stuck in the past
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-05-02/why-greenhouse-gas-emissions-did-not-really-stabilize-in-the-past-few-years/If others have current reliable figures for these numbers, please do share, with links! Thanks.