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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1450 on: May 15, 2018, 07:39:19 AM »
Yet another article.

Alternative pathways to the 1.5 °C target reduce the need for negative emission technologies.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0119-8
Quote
Mitigation scenarios that achieve the ambitious targets included in the Paris Agreement typically rely on greenhouse gas emission reductions combined with net carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, mostly accomplished through large-scale application of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, and afforestation. However, CDR strategies face several difficulties such as reliance on underground CO2 storage and competition for land with food production and biodiversity protection. The question arises whether alternative deep mitigation pathways exist. Here, using an integrated assessment model, we explore the impact of alternative pathways that include lifestyle change, additional reduction of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and more rapid electrification of energy demand based on renewable energy. Although these alternatives also face specific difficulties, they are found to significantly reduce the need for CDR, but not fully eliminate it. The alternatives offer a means to diversify transition pathways to meet the Paris Agreement targets, while simultaneously benefiting other sustainability goals.

Adding Table 1 & Fig 1 plus one line from the paper:

A rapid transformation in energy consumption and land use is needed in all scenarios.
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1451 on: May 15, 2018, 10:44:18 AM »
CARBON CLOCK

1.5 Degrees Celsius target,
Medium estimate of carbon (CO2) budget left - less than 13 GT,
Time remaining at current emissions rate - 3 months and 23 days (about the time of the September Arctic Ocean minimum).

https://www.mcc-berlin.net/fileadmin/data/clock/carbon_clock.htm
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Urbanus Simpliticus

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1452 on: May 16, 2018, 03:54:03 AM »
Inception date on the attachment was June 2017.
Prediction for September 2018 for 1.5 C.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1453 on: May 16, 2018, 09:25:58 PM »
Unfortunately, Kevin Anderson is optimistic. He does not take into account continued increases in CH4 emissions (together with their very high GWP20 number - 100 times greater than CO2), nor reducing Arctic albedo, nor increases in natural emissions, nor a host of other feedbacks. There already is no carbon budget, and Hansen is right about 350ppm.

That he is seen as a "radical realist" by some shows the level of denial that our elites are in. As we get more and more temperature surprises (and perhaps an Arctic BOE) during the next decade or so we will slowly move toward the geo-engineering route, plus grudging acceptances of increased rates of reduction in emissions. The day that I stop seeing natural gas mentioned as a "bridge fuel" I may feel that some level of reality has entered the brains of the elites.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1454 on: May 16, 2018, 10:12:05 PM »
Quote
The day that I stop seeing natural gas mentioned as a "bridge fuel" I may feel that some level of reality has entered the brains of the elites.

What's your solution to replacing coal plants with wind and solar without periods of the grid going dark?

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1455 on: May 17, 2018, 07:22:09 AM »
Unfortunately, Kevin Anderson is optimistic. He does not take into account continued increases in CH4 emissions (together with their very high GWP20 number - 100 times greater than CO2), nor reducing Arctic albedo, nor increases in natural emissions, nor a host of other feedbacks. There already is no carbon budget, and Hansen is right about 350ppm.

That he is seen as a "radical realist" by some shows the level of denial that our elites are in. As we get more and more temperature surprises (and perhaps an Arctic BOE) during the next decade or so we will slowly move toward the geo-engineering route, plus grudging acceptances of increased rates of reduction in emissions. The day that I stop seeing natural gas mentioned as a "bridge fuel" I may feel that some level of reality has entered the brains of the elites.
?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1456 on: May 17, 2018, 01:18:07 PM »
Logjam for Paris climate "rule book" as end-2018 deadline looms
Quote
An extra session will be held in Bangkok in September to push forward on guidelines for how the Paris pact will be implemented

* Finance, overshadows climate talks on rules for Paris accord

* New meeting set for Bangkok before end-year deadline

* Graphic at: https://tmsnrt.rs/2fTjA1w

BONN, Germany, May 10 (Reuters) - Governments made slow progress on a "rule book" for a global climate accord after two weeks of talks ending on Thursday and agreed to a new round of negotiations to break a diplomatic logjam before a year-end deadline for a deal.

Disputes among the senior climate officials from about 180 nations in Bonn included how rich nations will raise finance to a pledged $100 billion a year by 2020 to help developing nations cope with rising temperatures and cut their emissions.

"We can't say failure. But overall we've been having slow progress," Gebru Jember Endalew, chair of the group of least developed countries, told Reuters. Poor nations are most vulnerable to more droughts, floods and rising sea levels. ...
http://news.trust.org/item/20180510170429-nbxs8
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1457 on: May 21, 2018, 04:05:20 AM »
The Conversation asks interesting questions about whether the UN Security Council will take climate change seriously soon enough to meet the IPCC's Paris Agreement goals.  In other words, does the UN take the warnings of its own climate scientists seriously?

Title: "Climate change is a security threat – so where is the UN Security Council?"

https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-a-security-threat-so-where-is-the-un-security-council-96658

Extract: "Climate change is one of the great security challenges of the 21st century. As the world warms, conflicts over water, food or energy will become more common and many people will be forced from their homes. Scientists, think-tanks, NGOs, militaries and even the White House (albeit under President Obama) all agree that climate change threatens human safety and well-being. Yet the organisation charged with global security has remained relatively silent."
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1458 on: May 24, 2018, 09:14:57 AM »
Posting this here as well. April 30 update via: https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/
Fully documented, there's not one role model country in the World.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1460 on: May 30, 2018, 04:23:58 PM »
It looks like underreporting of carbon emissions from global meat and fish production means that the Paris goals are in jeopardy:

Title: "Meat and fish multinationals 'jeopardising Paris climate goals'"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/30/meat-and-fish-protein-multinationals-jeopardising-paris-climate-goals

Extract: "New index finds many of the world’s largest protein producers failing to measure or report emissions, despite accounting for 14.5% of greenhouse gases"
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1461 on: May 31, 2018, 05:30:31 PM »
How much fugitive methane gas emissions are we not accounting for?

Title: "Arctic Methane Leaks Go Undetected Because Equipment Can’t Handle the Cold"

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/31052018/arctic-oil-gas-methane-leak-detection-technology-reliability-problems-alaska-climate-change

Extract: "While the Trump administration's attempt to overturn Obama's methane rules is facing legal challenges on several fronts, the EPA issued two narrow amendments to the Fugitive Emissions Requirements of the rules.

One amendment got rid of a requirement that leaks had to be repaired during emergency shutdowns. Instead, they can now be repaired during the next planned shutdown or within two years, whichever is earlier.

And on the North Slope, another amendment gives operators more time to conduct inspections to new or modified wells, so if a well is drilled in winter, instead of having to inspect it within 60 days, operators now have six months.

In the United States, the amendments to the methane rules are raising suspicion among some environmentalists. "Our concern is: What's the real intention behind the rule change?" said David Lyon, a scientist at the Environmental Defense Fund. "Was it a minor technical tweak to address a legitimate issue? Or was it a tactic to start chipping away at the rule, piece by piece?"

He also questioned the knowledge gap on the North Slope and in other cold climates as methane leaks go undetected in the winter. Without functioning cameras, operators are left with audio and visual inspections as the best tool for detection. "They've shown that audio-visual inspections do not work," he said. "That's not a good alternative to finding the leaks.""
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1462 on: June 01, 2018, 07:21:19 AM »
Crosspost.
Compared to the SDG's and the Paris agreement...  ::)
Only 4 out of 38 clean-energy technologies are on track to meet long-term climate goals.
https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/may/iea-releases-new-and-updated-online-resource-to-assess-global-clean-energy-transi.html
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1463 on: June 01, 2018, 12:47:34 PM »
Crosspost.
Compared to the SDG's and the Paris agreement...  ::)
Only 4 out of 38 clean-energy technologies are on track to meet long-term climate goals.


That is 4 more than I expected.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1464 on: June 01, 2018, 01:40:55 PM »
Yeah, it is a positive take on this.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1465 on: June 01, 2018, 04:00:12 PM »
Quote
. In particular, unabated coal electricity generation (meaning generation without Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage, or CCUS), which is responsible for 72% of power sector emissions, rebounded in 2017 after falling over the last three years.

Meanwhile, two technologies, onshore wind and energy storage, were downgraded this year, as their progress slowed.

Rebounded one year.  One should expect noise during transitions.  A colder winter, a spike in gas prices - this sort of stuff can move a single year of coal consumption.  It's impossible to say that coal is or is not on track based on a single data point.  Here's the background on at least some of the uptick -

Quote
BEIJING, Feb 28 (Reuters) - China’s coal consumption last year picked up for the first time since 2013, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday, despite Beijing’s push to promote less-polluting energy sources.

The world’s biggest coal consumer used 0.4 percent more coal in absolute terms in 2017 compared to a year ago, the bureau said in its annual National Social and Economic Development communique, without giving the value of total coal consumption.

However, as a portion of total energy consumption, coal usage fell 1.6 percentage points to 60.4 percent last year, while clean energy, including natural gas and renewables, rose 1.3 percentage points to 20.8 percent from 2016, the communique showed.

That indicates the country remains on track to fulfil its promise to decarbonise its economy and reduce air pollution, as it vowed to cut the coal portion to below 58 percent of total energy consumption by 2020.

Carbon intensity, the level of carbon emissions per unit of economic growth, dropped by 5.1 percent in 2017 compared to a year ago. Total energy consumption rose by 2.9 percent to 4.49 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent which is still below the target of 5 billion tonnes by 2020.

“The slight increase in China’s coal demand thankfully does little to change the overall trend of declining demand in coal’s largest market,” said Harri Lammi, global coal campaigner at environmental group Greenpeace.

“It continues on the path away from reliance on the world’s dirtiest fossil fuel as the energy structure transitions and renewable energy installations soar.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-energy-coal/corrected-chinas-2017-coal-consumption-rose-after-three-year-decline-clean-energy-portion-up-idUSL4N1QI48M

Onshore wind has slowed in some European countries because they are moving their wind turbines offshore. 

There's no general need for energy storage at this point in time.  As far as I know no grid is significantly curtailing wind or solar.  Until that happens there is nothing to store.  However using storage for grid smoothing is taking off like a rocket after the success of Tesla's large battery installation in Australia.

Here's what Source Watch has to say about the IEA -

Quote
The IEA has systematically underestimated the potential of renewable energy sources like wind and solar, "because of its ties to the oil, gas and nuclear sectors," Energy Watch, a group of scientists and politicians, charged in a January 2009 report (pdf). Swiss parliamentarian and Energy Watch member Rudolf Rechsteiner said that IEA was "delaying the change to a renewable world. They continue touting nuclear and carbon-capture-and-storage, classical central solutions, instead of a more neutral approach, which would favour new solutions." [4]

The Energy Watch report documented that IEA has dramatically underestimated wind power capacity over the past decade. IEA's 2008 World Energy Outlook "predicts a fivefold increase in wind energy from 2006-2015, but then assumes a rapid slowdown" without explaining why "the wind sector should suffer such a crisis by 2015 and after." IEA, which refused to comment on the report, draws "senior staff from the fossil-fuel industry." [4]

I wouldn't go running around in circles crying that the sky is falling based on this paper.


AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1466 on: June 01, 2018, 06:11:40 PM »
I provide the link to an article on negative emissions technology, for optimists for the success of Paris (I note that I am not one of the optimists for Paris meeting its goals):

Title: "Guest post: Seven key things to know about ‘negative emissions’"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-seven-key-things-to-know-about-negative-emissions

Extract: "Despite the ambitious long-term climate goals of the Paris Agreement, there remains a distinct lack of success at ushering in immediate and sustained reductions in global CO2 emissions.

This cognitive dissonance has seen the topic of “negative emissions” – also known as “carbon dioxide removal” (CDR) – move into the limelight in climate science and policy discussions."
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1467 on: June 02, 2018, 08:16:40 AM »
Thanks ASLR. Wonderful post, as usual.

Without anything better to add, I'll simply add a couple of screenshots from Dennis Meadows presentation in/from #WeDon'tHaveTime. The common idea & his bathtub analogy.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1468 on: June 04, 2018, 11:41:17 AM »
More with Kevin... Hopefully viewable elsewhere as well:
https://urplay.se/program/205843-ur-samtiden-baltic-sea-future-stabilitet-eller-kaos-vagval-for-klimatet
Also adding four screenshots.
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Human Habitat Index

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1469 on: June 04, 2018, 12:19:09 PM »
Because of inertia the future is baked in.

In any case, the chance for meaningful change seems remote.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1470 on: June 04, 2018, 03:02:23 PM »
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1471 on: June 05, 2018, 09:46:12 AM »
Unfortunately he's not passing anywhere near me.

The Swedish Carbon Cycle
http://www.web.cemus.se/the-swedish-carbon-cycle/
Quote
The Swedish Carbon Cycle is a two-wheeled journey around Sweden to help raise awareness and catalyse local climate action in Sweden – from citizen engagement to revising the climate and energy strategies of municipalities. From South to North, climate professor Kevin Anderson will be cycling around the country meeting citizens and local governments to discuss our opportunities and challenges in the face of a changing climate. A key part of the journey will be discussing Kevin’s research on carbon budgets and the role they can play in reaching the Paris agreement’s goal. Kevin will seek to bring out youth perspectives and leadership at different levels throughout the trip as a way to highlight the role all can play in addressing this issue. The journey takes place in the last two weeks of June terminating in Visby on July 2 at the start of the Almedalen week.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1472 on: June 05, 2018, 12:35:35 PM »
It is time we account for carbon in the products we use.
https://energyindemand.com/2018/06/01/it-is-time-we-account-for-carbon-in-the-products-we-use/

Quoting all of it:
Quote
The hidden carbon cost of everyday products

The targets set in the Paris Agreement on climate change are ambitious but necessary. Failure to meet them will lead to widespread drought, disease and desperation in some of the world’s poorest regions. Under such conditions mass migration by stranded climate refugees is almost inevitable.

Yet if richer nations are to be serious in their commitment to the Paris target, then they must begin to account for the carbon emissions contained within products they import.

Heavy industry and the constant demand for consumer goods are key contributors to climate change. In fact, 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions are produced through the process of converting metal ores and fossil fuels into the cars, washing machines and electronic devices that help prop up the economy and make life a little more comfortable.

As one might expect, the wealthier parts of the world with their higher purchasing power do more than their fair share of consuming and polluting. For every item bought or sold there is a rise in GDP, and with each 1% increase in GDP there is a corresponding 0.5 to 0.7% rise in carbon emissions. The growing demand for day-to-day conveniences exacerbates this problem. For metal ores alone, the extraction rate more than doubled between 1980 and 2008, and it shows no sign of slowing.

Every time you buy a new car, for instance, you effectively mine 3-7g of “platinum group metals” to coat the catalytic converter. The six elements in the platinum group have the greatest environmental impact of all metals, and producing just one kilo requires the emission of thousands of kilos of CO₂.

That car also consumes one tonne of steel and you can add to that some aluminium, a whole host of plastics and, in the case of electric cars, rare earth elements.

Often, no one is held accountable for the carbon emissions connected to these materials, because they are produced in countries where “dirty” industry is still politically acceptable or seen as the only way to escape poverty. In fact, of the carbon emissions that European consumers are personally responsible for, around 22% are allocated elsewhere under conventional carbon accounting practices. For consumers in the US, the figure is around 15%.


From mine to dump

Carbon emissions from the exhaust pipe tell only part of the story. To get a full sense of the carbon footprint of a car, you have to consider those emissions that go into producing the raw materials and digging a hole in the ground twice – once to extract the metals contained in the car, once to dump them when they can no longer be recycled.

Buying a new car and dumping the old one might be justifiable if the change was made because the new vehicle is more fuel efficient, but it is certainly not when it’s a question of personal taste or corporate-level planned obsolescence. The same is true for any number of high tech items, including smartphones that run on software that renders them unusable in the medium term. The environmental consequences of replacing a smartphone, in terms of carbon emissions alone, are considerable. Apple found that 83% of the carbon dioxide associated with the iPhone X was directly linked to manufacture, shipping and recycling. With these kinds of figures, it is hard to argue a sustainable case for upgrades – regardless of how many solar panels Apple sticks on the roof of its offices.

Governments of richer countries that import products but not their emissions must stop pointing the finger at China or other manufacturing or mining giants and start taking responsibility. This means going further than they have been willing to go so far, and implementing sustainable material strategies that address a product’s entire lifecycle from mining to manufacturing, use, and eventually to disposal.

On an individual level people must vote with their money. It’s time to leave behind the laggards who hide the cost of the carbon contained within their products and who design them to fail in order to put profits before people and the environment.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1473 on: June 07, 2018, 11:42:23 PM »
The linked reference presents improved methodology for measuring the true climate impacts of short-lived climate pollutants (like methane):

Allen, M. R. et al. (2018), "A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation", Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0026-8

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0026-8

Abstract: "While cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions dominate anthropogenic warming over centuries, temperatures over the coming decades are also strongly affected by short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), complicating the estimation of cumulative emission budgets for ambitious mitigation goals. Using conventional Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to convert SLCPs to “CO2-equivalent” emissions misrepresents their impact on global temperature. Here we show that peak warming under a range of mitigation scenarios is determined by a linear combination of cumulative CO2 emissions to the time of peak warming and non-CO2 radiative forcing immediately prior to that time. This may be understood by expressing aggregate non-CO2 forcing as cumulative CO2 forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions. We show further that contributions to CO2-fe emissions are well approximated by a new usage of GWP, denoted GWP*, which relates cumulative CO2 emissions to date with the current rate of emission of SLCPs. GWP* accurately indicates the impact of emissions of both long-lived and short-lived pollutants on radiative forcing and temperatures over a wide range of timescales, including under ambitious mitigation when conventional GWPs fail. Measured by GWP*, implementing the Paris Agreement would reduce the expected rate of warming in 2030 by 28% relative to a No Policy scenario. Expressing mitigation efforts in terms of their impact on future cumulative emissions aggregated using GWP* would relate them directly to contributions to future warming, better informing both burden-sharing discussions and long-term policies and measures in pursuit of ambitious global temperature goals."
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1474 on: June 08, 2018, 06:43:24 AM »
Our dependency on carbon removal grows
https://blog.mcc-berlin.net/post/article/our-dependency-on-carbon-removal-grows.html
Quote
Meeting the climate goals of the Paris Agreement is going to be nearly impossible without removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Simply reducing emissions from their current level is unlikely to be enough to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius. In fact, we need to remove huge amounts of carbon dioxide — billions of tons per year — to meet these goals because we have repeatedly delayed our decarbonization efforts.

At least a quarter of what we currently emit needs to be stored in trees, soil and under the Earth’s crust. But we are not developing these technologies that we desperately need at the required speed. All the blame is on us: we have simply been too slow to reduce emissions, leaving us in a dire situation where we are going to have to depend on technologies that may not be available in time.
Quote
There is no silver bullet: no single technology is likely to provide all the CO2 removal that is required. All technologies have economic and environmental constrains. They are dependent upon the establishment of policy incentives. We therefore need to explore smart technology portfolios where multiple CO2 removal technologies are deployed at more modest scales. Only diversified portfolios can help us to hedge the risks associated with CO2 removal.

Accompanying text to the image below:
If air capture follows a similar timeline to solar, it won’t be low cost until 2077 or attain widespread adoption until 2100. Credit: William Lamb / MCC

Edit: resized image.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1475 on: June 09, 2018, 02:02:55 AM »
Trump’s abandonment of Paris climate deal to cost U.S. economy trillions, new study reveals
Quote
A new study from Stanford finds that failure to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Accord will cost the U.S. economy several trillion dollars in the coming decades — and cost the world economy tens of trillions of dollars.

The study, “Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets,” was published in the journal Nature last week. It is among the first to analyze the economic benefits of keeping global warming to the levels unanimously agreed to by more than 190 nations at the 2015 Paris climate summit.

President Trump has made the U.S. a rogue nation — the only one in the world to abandon the agreement — under the misguided notion that it will hurt our economy. The reverse is true.

“In fact, we calculate the cumulative savings to the U.S. economy alone of meeting the most ambitious Paris targets could total $6 trillion (in today’s dollars),” the researchers Marshall Burke and Noah Diffenbaugh explained in The Hill on Sunday.

Studies have made clear that this huge economic loss from inaction is vastly larger than the cost of reducing carbon pollution.

Indeed, the Stanford study finds that inaction could cause a stunning 30 percent loss in future global economic output — whereas the world’s scientists and governments have concluded that even the most aggressive climate action costs under 0.1 percent of GDP. ...
https://thinkprogress.org/trump-climate-policies-cost-us-economy-6-trillion-new-study-575120a5870a/
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ivica

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1476 on: June 10, 2018, 11:49:31 PM »
ADDRESS OF HIS HOLINESS POPE FRANCIS TO PARTICIPANTS AT THE MEETING FOR EXECUTIVES OF THE MAIN COMPANIES IN THE OIL AND NATURAL GAS SECTORS, AND OTHER ENERGY RELATED BUSINESSES
Clementine Hall, Saturday, 9 June 2018

Quote
As you know, in December 2015, 196 Nations negotiated and adopted the Paris Agreement, with a firm resolve to limit the growth in global warming to below 2° centigrade, based on preindustrial levels, and, if possible, to below 1.5° centigrade. Some two-and-a-half years later, carbon dioxide emissions and atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases remain very high. This is disturbing and a cause for real concern.

Yet even more worrying is the continued search for new fossil fuel reserves, whereas the Paris Agreement clearly urged keeping most fossil fuels underground. This is why we need to talk together – industry, investors, researchers and consumers – about transition and the search for alternatives. Civilization requires energy, but energy use must not destroy civilization!

His speech. More here.

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1477 on: June 11, 2018, 08:50:06 AM »
Posting this here as well. April 30 update via: https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/
Fully documented, there's not one role model country in the World.
I must correct that because it's wrong.

https://www.ted.com/talks/tshering_tobgay_this_country_isn_t_just_carbon_neutral_it_s_carbon_negative

Quote
The reality is that there are barely 700,000 of us sandwiched between two of the most populated countries on earth, China and India. The reality is that we are a small, underdeveloped country doing our best to survive. But we are doing OK. We are surviving. In fact, we are thriving, and the reason we are thriving is because we've been blessed with extraordinary kings. Our enlightened monarchs have worked tirelessly to develop our country, balancing economic growth carefully with social development, environmental sustainability and cultural preservation, all within the framework of good governance. We call this holistic approach to development "Gross National Happiness," or GNH. Back in the 1970s, our fourth king famously pronounced that for Bhutan, Gross National Happiness is more important than Gross National Product.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1478 on: June 11, 2018, 04:34:26 PM »
Those who think that the climate damage done by Trump's actions are limited to only changes in US policies, need to pull their head out of the sand, as Trump's disruption to (weakening of) international institutions will almost certainly contribute to additional climate damage:

Title: "Weakened international institutions could have climate impact"

https://www.axios.com/equinor-climate-forecast-international-instiutions-g7-028c5efa-475c-4172-b56c-39524bfa3faf.html?utm_source=sidebar

Extract: "Part of Equinor's long-term global energy analysis, released late last week, looks eerily prescient after Trump's tumultuous weekend exit from the G7 summit.

The bottom line: The oil-and-gas giant warned that their "Rivalry" scenario — where geopolitical and trade conflict, weakened multilateral institutions and other forces erode efforts on climate — is looking more likely."
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1479 on: June 11, 2018, 04:42:55 PM »
Those who think that the climate damage done by Trump's actions are limited to only changes in US policies, need to pull their head out of the sand, as Trump's disruption to (weakening of) international institutions will almost certainly contribute to additional climate damage:

Extract: "Part of Equinor's long-term global energy analysis, released late last week, looks eerily prescient after Trump's tumultuous weekend exit from the G7 summit.

The bottom line: The oil-and-gas giant warned that their "Rivalry" scenario — where geopolitical and trade conflict, weakened multilateral institutions and other forces erode efforts on climate — is looking more likely."

On the other hand, if Trump and his merry men provoke a really bad trade war, set Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel at each other's throats in a hot war, CO2 emissions could go down but only as a consequence of a huge upturn in human misery.

I betcha the thinkers in Equinor and the other oil/gas majors have a few sleepness nights about that.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1480 on: June 11, 2018, 04:51:47 PM »
On the other hand, if Trump and his merry men provoke a really bad trade war, set Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel at each other's throats in a hot war, CO2 emissions could go down but only as a consequence of a huge upturn in human misery.

I betcha the thinkers in Equinor and the other oil/gas majors have a few sleepness nights about that.

First, hot wars increase CO2 emissions.

Second, oil/gas majors benefit from international disruption by: a) increasing the price of oil/gas thus increasing their profits and b) majors can take advantage of disruption to squeeze smaller oil companies into selling their oil/gas assets to the majors in exchange for liquidity.  ExxonMobil, implements this behavior on a regular basis to take advantage of political-economic cycles.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1481 on: June 12, 2018, 01:14:28 PM »
America’s best friends ready to take on climate … without Trump
Quote
At the G7 summit in Canada this past weekend, nearly all the leaders of the world’s richest and most powerful countries were united behind a bold proclamation: There can be no global economic progress without climate action. Take it or leave it.

And then Trump left.

It now looks like that move could help usher the United States out of the world’s premier economic alliance. The remaining six countries, call them the “G6,” have put climate action ahead of maintaining normal relations with the United States — an unthinkable development not very long ago. That’s huge.
...
Long-simmering tensions between the U.S. and the other countries simply boiled over. It all started when Donald Trump decided to bail on the Paris climate agreement this time last year — a shock to the global community still coming to terms with the prospect of a United States not playing by the rules as a matter of principle. In the run-up to this weekend’s meeting, Justin Trudeau, Canada’s prime minister and the meeting’s host set the agenda, with climate change scheduled for the last day. The timing of Trump’s departure — skipping out just ahead of time — seems curiously timed to avoid the issue.

Emerging from the the wreckage of the summit is a global community that appears surprisingly OK with moving on from an increasingly childish and untrustworthy leader of the United States. A quick survey of initial reactions from observers around the world are nearly unanimous in assessing how events played out over the weekend. In the U.K., the Guardian called it a “watershed moment.” In Germany, Deutsche Welle said: “It’s probably better this way.”
...
https://grist.org/article/leaders-of-worlds-largest-democracies-ready-to-take-on-climate-without-trump/
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1482 on: June 17, 2018, 11:36:03 AM »
Exclusive: Global warming set to exceed 1.5°C, slow growth - U.N. draft.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-report-exclusive/exclusive-global-warming-set-to-exceed-1-5c-slow-growth-u-n-draft-idUSKBN1JA1HD
Quote
OSLO (Reuters) - Global warming is on course to exceed the most stringent goal set in the Paris agreement by around 2040, threatening economic growth, according to a draft report that is the U.N.’s starkest warning yet of the risks of climate change.

Governments can still cap temperatures below the strict 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit) ceiling agreed in 2015 only with “rapid and far-reaching” transitions in the world economy, according to the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Quote
“Economic growth is projected to be lower at 2°C warming than at 1.5° for many developed and developing countries,” it said, drained by impacts such as floods or droughts that can undermine crop growth or an increase in human deaths from heatwaves.
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1483 on: June 18, 2018, 06:38:21 AM »
LVDL made a post in the cryosphere section last week:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,622.msg158630.html#msg158630
Followed up by a number of posts by sidd.

Since I don't want to pollute that thread further I'll post this one here.



Full Fledged 5 Alarm Climate Emergency In Antarctica
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/16/full-fledged-5-alarm-climate-emergency-in-antarctica/
Just quoting the last part
Quote
Will this new study spark action to stop burning fossil fuels? It didn’t seem to have had much impact on the leaders of the G6 + 1 in Canada last week, who issued a weasel-worded statement about trying really, really hard to meet the goals of the Paris climate accords. And it certainly won’t have any effect on Charles and David Koch or the people who perseverate on Hillary’s emails.

If the history of humanity is any guide, the chances of the world coming to its senses to combat global warming any time soon are somewhere between slim and none. The only thing that will save us from ourselves is if combating climate change becomes profitable. Then and only then will the world as we know it have a chance of surviving.
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1484 on: June 25, 2018, 11:40:49 AM »
Unfortunately he's not passing anywhere near me.

The Swedish Carbon Cycle
http://www.web.cemus.se/the-swedish-carbon-cycle/
Quote
The Swedish Carbon Cycle is a two-wheeled journey around Sweden to help raise awareness and catalyse local climate action in Sweden – from citizen engagement to revising the climate and energy strategies of municipalities. From South to North, climate professor Kevin Anderson will be cycling around the country meeting citizens and local governments to discuss our opportunities and challenges in the face of a changing climate. A key part of the journey will be discussing Kevin’s research on carbon budgets and the role they can play in reaching the Paris agreement’s goal. Kevin will seek to bring out youth perspectives and leadership at different levels throughout the trip as a way to highlight the role all can play in addressing this issue. The journey takes place in the last two weeks of June terminating in Visby on July 2 at the start of the Almedalen week.

Updating with the bunch-o-vids-link with this clear-sighted man:
http://www.web.cemus.se/the-swedish-carbon-cycle-video-archive/

Edit; adding the one from June 20 with that beautiful tile stove in the background. I've got two of those myself, wonderful old tech, still working. How much of today's tech will work in another hundred years?
« Last Edit: June 25, 2018, 11:53:30 AM by Sleepy »
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1485 on: June 25, 2018, 03:26:03 PM »
Yes and it has also made it a lot easier for me to post stuff from my home turf in here, all Swedes are forced to speak English around Kevin! :)
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1486 on: June 29, 2018, 05:17:20 AM »
Since the T thread was locked and I posted this snippet in there I might as well repost it here? From the link above.

Also adding an image posted by ivica in the Café, HMS Seneca.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2018, 05:22:59 AM by Sleepy »
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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1487 on: June 29, 2018, 06:20:33 AM »
The Seneca Tribe today lives close to Niagara Falls, they'd probably appreciate the cartoon.  :)
Terry

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1488 on: June 29, 2018, 09:35:20 PM »
There's a place called Seneca Falls on the finger lakes in upstate New York, a good place for HMS Seneca to take a cruise.

Kevin Anderson is an optimist, once such things as methane emissions, climate feedbacks and too low ECS estimate etc. are taken into account (as covered in other parts of this site). Even the critics of the UN IPCC are relative optimists! There is no carbon budget.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1489 on: June 30, 2018, 06:16:12 AM »
There's a place called Seneca Falls on the finger lakes in upstate New York, a good place for HMS Seneca to take a cruise.

Kevin Anderson is an optimist, once such things as methane emissions, climate feedbacks and too low ECS estimate etc. are taken into account (as covered in other parts of this site). Even the critics of the UN IPCC are relative optimists! There is no carbon budget.
Ramen
 I wish I could see a way to preserve our culture, but I think that train left the station before I was even aware that there was a problem.
We live in interesting times. :(
Terry

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1490 on: June 30, 2018, 06:51:45 AM »
The Seneca Tribe today lives close to Niagara Falls, they'd probably appreciate the cartoon.  :)
There's a place called Seneca Falls on the finger lakes in upstate New York, a good place for HMS Seneca to take a cruise.

Why are Canadians so obsessed with America? :)

Since I brought it here I will quote ivica's entire wonderful post.
Ugo Bardi writes in his blogspot: "About 2,000 years ago, the Roman philosopher Lucius Annaeus Seneca wrote to his friend Licilius noting that "growth is slow, but ruin is rapid". It was an apparently obvious observation, but one of those observations that turns out to be not obvious at all if you just think a little about it."
He wrote book about it, The "Seneca Effect", published this spring.



How fast a house can be built? How fast it can be destroyed?
How much takes to create something? How much takes to destroy it?

< we still lack the culture... we lack leadership... >


Kevin Anderson is an optimist, once such things as methane emissions, climate feedbacks and too low ECS estimate etc. are taken into account (as covered in other parts of this site). Even the critics of the UN IPCC are relative optimists! There is no carbon budget.
What is you point?
Don't you think others are aware of the plentitude of known unknowns and the unknown unknowns? The obvious problem is that science can't confirm those and noone can use them to convice anyone else. Have a go at your neighbours (USofA...).

Adding the last part of an interview with Kevin Anderson made almost five years back.

Edit; uploading that video snippet again since I lost the last part for some reason, it also contains the source in the final frames...
« Last Edit: June 30, 2018, 07:07:04 AM by Sleepy »
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1491 on: June 30, 2018, 01:17:18 PM »
Don't know where to post this but why not here?
Maybe best summarized as the classic scientific approach towards mitigation?

Dr Marcus Carson on climate change.
"Habits are the worlds greatest energy saving device, we just keep on charging forward without having to think about it a lot."

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ivica

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1492 on: July 01, 2018, 12:49:52 PM »
The Global Climate Action Summit
San Francisco: Wed, Sep 12, 2018 — Fri, Sep 14, 2018

I see no specific mention of it (except this, ASLR Feb 2018.: "Our aim for the summit is to move from incremental action to exponential and ...") so:

"People everywhere are encouraged to participate in the hundreds of affiliate events taking place in the San Francisco Bay Area and throughout the world during the week of September 10-14th, including climate action panels, workshops, tours, exhibits and other special events. The full affiliate event schedule will be posted here this summer."

"The Summit will underscore the urgency of the threat of climate change by mobilizing the voices and experience of real people, in real communities already facing real and stark threats. It will challenge and channel the energy and idealism of people everywhere to step up and overcome it."

FAQ: "What are the desired outcomes of the Global Climate Action Summit?
The Summit will help demonstrate how much progress has been made on climate action since 2015 and how more is needed. It will mobilize bold new commitments by non-state actors that will contribute to meeting the Paris Agreement. It will also demonstrate to national governments in the run-up to COP24 that stronger commitments are necessary, desirable and achievable. Summit participants are expected to make substantial climate commitments to support climate action in five key areas: Healthy Energy Systems, Inclusive Economic Growth, Sustainable Communities, Land and Ocean Stewardship and Transformative Climate Investments."


Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1493 on: July 01, 2018, 10:11:44 PM »
These Are the Toughest Emissions to Cut, and a Big Chunk of the Climate Problem
Without improvements in shipping, cement and steel, major sources of greenhouse gas pollution will be locked in for generations, new research shows.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28062018/global-warming-pollution-industrial-sources-cement-steel-trade-solutions-technology-shipping
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1494 on: July 05, 2018, 10:13:59 AM »
Kevin Lister, research fellow at Climate Institute, Washington D.C. argues for the need to lower the global average temperature to +0,5°C above pre.industrial. And the use of SRM.



https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/97_Talanoa%20Submission_climate%20institute.pdf

Quote
1. Situation Overview
 
This response to the UN Talanoa Dialogue has been prepared by a consortium of leading climate change scientists, academics and institutions that are focused on developing and encouraging realistic and practical technical and policy responses to stabilize the climate at a level that will fully meet the stated objective of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
 
Our conclusion is that the risk of very serious environmental and societal impacts, including the potential for a near-term, nonlinear and irreversible step change in the planet’s climate is so great that an aggressive climate restoration program needs to be initiated to return the global average temperature to no more than 0.5ºC above its preindustrial level. This program must be comprehensive, pursuing a multi-pronged approach that includes greatly strengthening efforts based on efficiency and mitigation, building up of efforts to restore carbon levels in the soils and land cover, and researching and then likely needing to initiate climate intervention efforts in the near-term to not only ensure the global average temperature does not exceed 1.5ºC at any time (so no overshoot), but also will put the climate on a pathway to a global average temperature characteristic of the mid- to late 20th century when conditions were generally within the range of natural variability under which society and prevailing ecosystems were not facing severe threats (a global average temperate estimated to be no more than 0.5ºC above its preindustrial level).
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1495 on: July 08, 2018, 12:50:17 PM »
The Netherlands contemplates the world’s toughest climate law
A new Dutch proposal would put climate at the center of national politics.
Quote
Last week, a coalition of seven Dutch political parties unveiled a climate policy proposal that is breathtaking in its ambition. If it becomes law, it will codify the most stringent targets for greenhouse gas reductions of any country in the world.

There are still several steps between the proposal and passage, including debate in both houses of Parliament, and lawmakers may make changes. But given the broad political support — the parties involved control 113 of 150 seats in Parliament — it is widely expected to pass in something like its current form by late next summer.

It would be the world’s eighth national climate law (after the UK, Mexico, Denmark, Finland, France, Norway, and Sweden), but it boasts a few features that make it particularly notable.

It’s bipartisan! Or rather, heptapartisan.

Here in the US, we’ve grown depressingly accustomed to climate battles breaking down along partisan lines: Democrats push (inadequate) solutions; Republicans deny that the problem exists or that anything needs to be done about it.

In contrast, the Dutch proposal is supported by a coalition of parties ranging from the far left to the center-right, together representing a large majority of seats in the Dutch Parliament. (One notable absence: the right-wing populist party, Party for Freedom, led by notorious Islamophobe Geert Wilders.) The current prime minister, Mark Rutte, leads the center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), which is one of the bill’s primary supporters.
...
If passed as proposed, the Dutch law would be the world’s most stringent, putting into statute the following targets:

• 49 percent reduction in greenhouse gases (relative to 1990 levels) by 2030
• 95 percent reduction by 2050
• 100 percent carbon-neutral electricity by 2050
...
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/7/6/17535720/netherlands-dutch-climate-law-paris-targets
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1496 on: July 08, 2018, 02:27:30 PM »
I am writing a submission to th City Of York's Local Plan. I can't quite believe what I've just written.

Quote
As I write this (8th July 2018), the Guardian's Carbon countdown clock gives the remaining catbon budget for staying below 2C as 736.5 billion tonnes of CO2e (CO2- equivalent) considerably less than in the diagram. That's just over 100 tones CO2e for every person on Earth. For a temperature rise of  1.5C the remaining CO2e budget is under 2.2 billion tonnes CO2e or 0.3 tonnes for every person on Earth.

Is this sensible?
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1497 on: July 08, 2018, 04:31:32 PM »
I am writing a submission to th City Of York's Local Plan. I can't quite believe what I've just written.

Quote
As I write this (8th July 2018), the Guardian's Carbon countdown clock gives the remaining catbon budget for staying below 2C as 736.5 billion tonnes of CO2e (CO2- equivalent) considerably less than in the diagram. That's just over 100 tones CO2e for every person on Earth. For a temperature rise of  1.5C the remaining CO2e budget is under 2.2 billion tonnes CO2e or 0.3 tonnes for every person on Earth.

Is this sensible?

1) Spellchecker!

2) People are now poorly educated about the physical world they live in. (Gotta learn their IT and social media skills). Most people find it hard to relate physical quantities to their lives. When I used to write stuff for general use as opposed to fellow professionals I put all the technical stuff in appendices - and in a very short summary tried to shove the messages (maximum 3) down the throats of my target audience in terms that related to their personal lives (for you that means in York).

So quoting tonnes probably won't have much impact, nor will tonnes per person on earth. So I guess I would shove the technical stuff in the appendix (to show you know your stuff) and in the front:-
- show the probability that 1.5 degrees is toast - no time left,
- show that 2 degrees might well be toast - not a lot of time left,
- show that we are talking this half-century.
What will the effects on York likely to be ?
Water supply?
Floods?
Droughts?
What can York do to play its part and also mitigate effects of climate change?
Water supply?
Stop building on flood plains?
Parks and forests?
Renewable energy?
Public Transport - EV's, cycle networks.

You gotta sell a story - that makes people want to continue where you have stopped. Propaganda rules.
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1498 on: July 08, 2018, 05:22:25 PM »
gerontocrat.   Thanks. That's helpful.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1499 on: July 10, 2018, 10:50:58 AM »
I'm still fiddling with figures for a submission to the York Local Plan. Note for writing up in English:

Quote
Carbon Clock (Guardian) says remaining carbon budget in CO2e for 2°C is 736 Gt CO2e

World population is 7.6 billion

So that's nearly 100 tonnes CO2e each

Global Carbon Project says CO2 emissions in 2016 were 40+ Gt (including land use change)

Increase by 25% to get 50 Gt CO2e /year

That's 7 tonnes per person which will last 14 years.

A bit longer if reductions happen soon.

Anything seriously wrong?
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