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Author Topic: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond  (Read 349193 times)

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1800 on: January 23, 2019, 06:28:42 PM »
The world can meet the Paris climate targets at about a quarter of the cost of current subsidies for fossil fuels, according to a new climate study
Quote
The study, entitled Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement, is the culmination of a two-year scientific collaboration with 17 leading scientists at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS), two institutes at the German Aerospace Center (DLR), and the University of Melbourne’s Climate & Energy College.

It was funded by the Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation and released by the scientific publisher Springer Nature. The model produced by the authors, called One Earth, offers a roadmap for surpassing the targets set by the 2016 Paris Climate Agreement,

According to Karl Burkart, Director of Innovation at the Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation, the One Earth climate model “is groundbreaking in that it shows the 1.5°C can be achieved through a rapid transition to 100% renewables by 2050, alongside land restoration efforts on every continent that increase the resilience of natural ecosystems and help to ensure greater food security.” ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/22/dicaprio-study-achieving-paris-targets-possible-cheap/
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1801 on: February 01, 2019, 08:56:29 PM »
Decarbonizing electricity alone cannot provide the required emissions reductions

In the renewables segment of the forum it has been noted that Australia does seem to be accelerating its implementation of renewable energy, which should help reduce emissions in that sector. Unfortunately, electricity is only part of the mix and the other parts are more than offsetting any electricity emission reductions "while electricity emissions are projected to dip, other sectors are on the rise". Given the probable highly questionable nature of Australia's reporting on LULCF (land use, land change and forestry) statistics, plus fugitive methane, the reality is probably significantly worse.

Same issue for Germany, and Brazil has deregulated Amazon forest clearing so that should ramp up soon in favour of soybean plantations and cattle ranches. Same for the US if fugitive methane emissions are properly included (up in in 2018 even without that).

Three things are needed: increased renewables + increased efficiency + demand-side energy use reductions. We are currently lukewarm on the first two and the third one is not even on the table given the focus on continued economic growth. The rich world should be reducing emissions at 10%+ a year to more than offset the poorer nations such as Indonesia and India (the latter is getting close to the EU28 level of emissions).

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-21/australia-to-fall-well-short-of-emissions-targets/10646522

http://world.350.org/canberra/australias-emissions-related-to-land-use-and-land-clearing/

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-climate-targets

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/co2-emissions-reached-an-all-time-high-in-2018/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/01/brazil-amazon-protection-laws-invite-deforestation-ngo


Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1802 on: February 09, 2019, 05:51:35 PM »
Australia is on track to meet its Paris climate commitments five years earlier than expected — in 2025 — according to new research from the Australian National University.
Quote
Per capita, the country is installing renewable energy faster than China, Japan, the United States, and the European Union.

"The electricity sector is on track to deliver Australia's entire Paris emissions reduction targets five years early, in 2025, without the need for any creative accounting," lead researcher Professor Andrew Blakers said.

"We have excellent wind, excellent sun, a very vigorous rooftop solar industry and very experienced ground-mounted solar farm and wind farm industry."

Co-researcher Matthew Stocks said cheaper renewable energy was replacing expensive coal-fired power, meaning the cost of achieving the 2030 carbon emission targets in the Paris Agreement would be zero.

"Nearly all of the new power stations are either PV [photovoltaic solar] or wind. We anticipate that this will continue into the future," Dr Stocks said. ...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-08/australia-ahead-of-paris-agreement-target-by-five-years/10789810

Cross-posted from Renewables thread.
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Lurk

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1803 on: February 10, 2019, 01:24:00 AM »
Australia is on track to meet its Paris climate commitments five years earlier than expected — in 2025 — according to new research from the Australian National University.
Quote
Per capita, the country is installing renewable energy faster than China, Japan, the United States, and the European Union.

"The electricity sector is on track to deliver Australia's entire Paris emissions reduction targets five years early, in 2025, without the need for any creative accounting," lead researcher Professor Andrew Blakers said.

"We have excellent wind, excellent sun, a very vigorous rooftop solar industry and very experienced ground-mounted solar farm and wind farm industry."

Co-researcher Matthew Stocks said cheaper renewable energy was replacing expensive coal-fired power, meaning the cost of achieving the 2030 carbon emission targets in the Paris Agreement would be zero.

"Nearly all of the new power stations are either PV [photovoltaic solar] or wind. We anticipate that this will continue into the future," Dr Stocks said. ...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-08/australia-ahead-of-paris-agreement-target-by-five-years/10789810

Cross-posted from Renewables thread.

Australia's Paris climate commitments are weak, maybe the weakest, and bordering on criminal negligence.

Australia not on track to hit Paris emissions goals, as UN warns global efforts must increase ABC Science
By environment reporter Nick Kilvert
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-11-28/climate-un-environment-report-australia-not-on-track-paris/10554058

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/28/australia-isnt-on-track-to-meet-its-2030-emissions-target-un-report-says

https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/dec/04/there-is-no-way-we-will-meet-our-paris-targets-and-the-coalition-couldnt-care-less

https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/04/23/paris-climate-change-_n_9755614.html

https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/australia/

http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/publications/factsheet-australias-2030-climate-change-target

Australia Is Effectively Abandoning Its Commitment To The Paris Agreement
https://www.iflscience.com/environment/australia-is-effectively-abandoning-its-commitment-to-the-paris-agreement/

Australia energy plan may breach Paris climate commitments
Published on 25/07/2018
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/07/25/australia-energy-plan-may-breach-paris-climate-commitments/

And that is before one takes into consideration +90% of the Coal Mined in Australia is exported - and that Australia is the largest Coal Exporter on this Planet and those exports are increasing not decreasing. Context matters. The whole story matters more.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2019, 09:25:25 AM by Lurk »
Solving Climate Change means changing 'The System' because nothing changes when nothing changes.
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1804 on: February 11, 2019, 10:46:36 PM »
Australia Court Rules it is the ‘Wrong Time’ for Coal

At least the Australian courts seem be doing their bit, by ruling against new coal plants.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/02/10/australia-court-rules-it-wrong-time-coal

Australia does "cook the books" on its emissions by counting (questionable) reductions in previously massively increased land use change, and ignoring the true level of fugitive methane emissions. Then of course there is the issue of the country being a massive exporter of fossil fuels.

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1805 on: February 12, 2019, 11:44:13 AM »
Some of us have been rabbiting on about how it is not just AGW that is likely to do the biosphere, including us, a lot of damage, and probably well before the IPCC horizon of 2100.

This study is by a left-wing thinktank, but is not much comfort to the left wing, as one obvious conclusion is that existing social and economic policies of the left are about as much use as those on the right in dealing with what could be an existential crisis if we continue to stay with right-wing or left-wing BAU.

Note from the second image that climate is not yet the most out-of-control planetary system.

The full report:-  https://www.ippr.org/files/2019-02/risk-and-environmentfeb19.pdf

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/climate-and-economic-risks-threaten-2008-style-systemic-collapse
Climate and economic risks 'threaten 2008-style systemic collapse'
Environmental and social problems could interact in global breakdown, report says

Quote
The study says the combination of global warming, soil infertility, pollinator loss, chemical leaching and ocean acidification is creating a “new domain of risk”, which is hugely underestimated by policymakers even though it may pose the greatest threat in human history.

“A new, highly complex and destabilised ‘domain of risk’ is emerging – which includes the risk of the collapse of key social and economic systems, at local and potentially even global levels,” warns the paper from the Institute for Public Policy Research. “This new risk domain affects virtually all areas of policy and politics, and it is doubtful that societies around the world are adequately prepared to manage this risk.”

Until recently, most studies of environmental risk tended to examine threats in isolation: climate scientists examined disruption to weather systems, biologists focused on ecosystem loss and economists calculated potential damages from intensifying storms and droughts. But a growing body of research is assessing how the interplay of these factors can create a cascade of tipping points in human society as well as the natural world.

The new paper – This is a Crisis: Facing up to the Age of Environmental Breakdown – is a meta-study of dozens of academic papers, government documents and NGO reports compiled by IPPR, a leftwing thinktank that is considered an influence on Labour policy.

The authors examine how the deterioration of natural infrastructure, such as a stable climate and fertile land, have a knock-on effect on health, wealth, inequality and migration, which in turn heightens the possibility of political tension and conflict.

The paper stresses the human impacts go beyond climate change and are occurring at speeds unprecedented in recorded history. Evidence on the deterioration of natural systems is presented with a series of grim global statistics: since 2005, the number of floods has increased by a factor of 15, extreme temperature events by a factor of 20, and wildfires sevenfold; topsoil is now being lost 10 to 40 times faster than it is being replenished by natural processes; the 20 warmest years since records began in 1850 have been in the past 22 years; vertebrate populations have fallen by an average of 60% since the 1970s, and insect numbers – vital for pollination – have declined even faster in some countries.

« Last Edit: February 12, 2019, 12:34:20 PM by gerontocrat »
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vox_mundi

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1806 on: February 12, 2019, 02:17:03 PM »
Interesting read

The report link points to a 404 - they seem to have changed the reports address. Updated address ...

Updated link: https://www.ippr.org/files/2019-02/risk-and-environment-february19.pdf
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1807 on: February 13, 2019, 01:01:29 PM »
Australia is on track to meet its Paris climate commitments five years earlier than expected — in 2025 — according to new research from the Australian National University.

Perhaps not....
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/13/australia-wont-meet-the-paris-targets-despite-what-recent-research-claims
Australia won’t meet the Paris targets despite what recent research claims
Bill Hare
There’s no way we’ll achieve the targets five years early without major policy changes, which are unlikely under the current government
Quote
The Australian National University has been making headlines for its analysis that, with the current rate of renewable energy growth, Australia will achieve its Paris agreement targets five years early – by 2025. Unfortunately, after a careful review, we find their analysis doesn’t stack up.

Numerous international and national efforts to examine Australia’s climate and energy policy have all concluded that the government will not reach, on present policy settings, the 26-28% reduction from 2005 levels by 2030 it has put forward under the Paris agreement.
To achieve a 26% reduction below 2005 levels in national emissions – the lower end of Australia’s Paris agreement target – would require about a 75% penetration of renewables in the power sector by 2024, whereas the ANU scenario projects 50%, which is not enough to reach the Paris target.

The ANU briefing, possibly inadvertently, creates the impression that all that would be required is a continuation of the recent rate of renewable energy deployment. That is simply not the case, not without major policy interventions, which are unlikely – at least under the current government. The rapid and continued rollout of renewable energy into the power sector assumed in the ANU briefing paper is something that the Australian government actually opposes.

The government’s policies are aimed at slowing the renewable energy rollout, and in particular maintaining coal in the power sector at any scale, which essentially contradicts the premises of the ANU paper.

The present large and increasing rollout in the utility sector is driven by the renewable energy target. Given that this expires in 2020, that specific economic incentive will disappear.

While the penetration of 50% renewables by 2025 may be plausible in the absence of further policy developments, it is not considered plausible that close to 90% penetration could be achieved by 2030 without substantial policy action.

Such reductions would also require phasing out coal almost completely from the power sector by 2030, which is clearly not supported by a federal government that is currently trying to promote more coal power, not less.

While the low cost of new renewable supply is also a clear driver, market barriers are already in evidence, along with grid connection issues that require active intervention.
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1808 on: February 15, 2019, 02:52:50 PM »
BP Energy Outlook 2019 is out.  attach a graph  made from one of their tables. Which do you believe?

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/14/renewable-energy-world-power-source-bp
Quote
Renewable energy sources will be the world’s main source of power within two decades and are establishing a foothold in the global energy system faster than any fuel in history, according to BP.

The UK-based oil company said wind, solar and other renewables will account for about 30% of the world’s electricity supplies by 2040, up from 25% in BP’s 2040 estimates last year, and about 10% today.

In regions such as Europe, the figure will be as high as 50% by 2040. The speed of growth was without parallel, the company said in its annual energy outlook. While oil took almost 45 years to go from 1% of global energy to 10%, and gas took more than 50 years, renewables are expected to do so within 25 years in the report’s central scenario.

In the event of a faster switch to a low carbon economy, that period comes down to just 15 years, which BP said would be “literally off the charts” relative to historical shifts.

But the company, as in previous editions of its report, does not see oil going away any time soon. The outlook’s core scenario envisages that oil demand does not peak until the 2030s, though under its greener scenario that milestone could be reached between now and the early 2020s.

Regardless, BP sees a “major role” for hydrocarbons until 2040, which it says will require substantial investment. It expects global demand for oil and gas to be 80-130 million barrels per day by then, up from around 100mb/d today.

The company has ambitious plans to grow its oil and gas production 16% by 2025, according to figures compiled by the Norway-based consultants Rystad Energy.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1809 on: Today at 12:12:19 AM »
Anything but "Rapid Transition" in that BP graph equals societal suicide! Amazing that such craziness can still pass as mainstream analysis.