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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #600 on: March 02, 2016, 11:48:13 PM »
The linked (open access) reference by Hansen & Sato (2016) analyzes decadal changes-shifts in the PDFs of seasonal and regional temperatures (note the 2 sigma shift in the summertime temperature PDF in the Middle East), and national responsibilities:

Hansen J. and Sato M. (March 2 2016), "Regional climate change and national responsibilities", Environmental Research Letters, Volume 11, Number 3 , doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034009

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034009

Abstract: "Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the 'bell curve' defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies."

Caption for first image: "Figure 1. Frequency of occurrence of local temperature anomalies (relative to 1951–1980 mean) divided by local standard deviation (horizontal axis) for land areas shown on map. Area under each curve is unity. Numbers above the maps are percent of the globe covered by the selected region. 'Shift' and 'width' refer to the dashed curve fit to 2005–2015 data and are relative to the 1951–1980 base period."

Caption for second image: "Figure 2. Shifting bell curves that define the frequency of local temperature anomalies relative to the 1951–1980 base period for four regions, with definitions and nomenclature as in figure 1."

Caption for third image: "Figure 3. Shifting bell curves that define the frequency of local temperature anomalies relative to the 1951–1980 base period for four regions, with definitions and nomenclature as in figure 1."

See also:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-james-hansen/regional-climate-change-a_b_9367312.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #601 on: March 05, 2016, 01:31:43 AM »
Chief Justice Rejects Effort to Block E.P.A. Limit on Power Plants
Quote
WASHINGTON — In a significant victory for the Obama administration, Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. on Thursday refused to block an Environmental Protection Agency regulation limiting emissions of mercury and other toxic pollutants from coal-fired power plants.
Quote
The Obama administration has put forth nearly half a dozen major rules aimed at cutting coal pollution, and critics, who have called them a “war on coal,” have sought to block them in the courts.

But Thursday’s decision is an indication that Justice Scalia’s death has altered the balance of power on the Supreme Court.

The Supreme Court had voted, 5 to 4, on the climate change stay, issued Feb. 9. Justice Scalia was in the majority, and his vote in that case was one of the last he cast before he died.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/04/us/politics/supreme-court-chief-justice-john-roberts-epa-coal.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #602 on: March 07, 2016, 02:05:44 PM »
China's carbon emissions may have peaked already, says Lord Stern
Report co-authored by renowned climate change economist claims Chinese emissions have peaked years earlier than its leaders pledged
Quote
Carbon emissions may have peaked already in China, years earlier than its leaders pledged, according to a study co-authored by the world-renowned economist Lord Stern.

The country’s emissions have fallen, partly as a result of its globally relevant economic slowdown, and partly owing to government policies to pursue a low-carbon path and reduce the rampant air pollution in its major cities.

If this trend continues it would show that the country’s emissions have already peaked, said Fergus Green, lead author of the report from the LSE.

This would be a landmark in international efforts to tackle emissions and fight climate change, formalised in last December’s breakthrough international accord on climate change signed in Paris. At the summit China, the world’s second biggest economy and the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, agreed that its emissions should peak by 2030.

In the new report, Green and Stern argue that if China’s emissions have not already peaked, then they are very likely to do so within the next decade, bringing the world’s biggest emitter to its internationally agreed target years earlier than expected.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/07/chinas-carbon-emissions-may-have-peaked-already-says-lord-stern
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #603 on: March 08, 2016, 01:52:28 AM »
The linked Robert Scribbler article & plot, and the subsequent references on TCRE, illustrate how challenging it will be to stay below 2C even if we start reducing GHG emission immediately, if TCRE is on the high side of its 0.8C to 2.5C ESLD range:


http://robertscribbler.com/2016/03/07/climate-change-why-2016-may-be-the-most-important-election-in-us-history/

Caption for attached image: "Amount of warming this Century expected under differing emissions reduction and climate sensitivity scenarios. In the above graph TCRE stands for transient climate response to emissions. It’s basically how much warming you get short term as a result of accumulated greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. Note that greenhouse gas emissions need to decline by more than 2 percent per year starting now if we are to have much confidence in avoiding 2 C warming this Century. It’s also worth noting that even a slow decline rate from near now likely locks in about 3 C warming this Century. Image source: Impact of Delay in Reducing CO2 Emissions."

See also:

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2015/12/02/sensitivity-to-cumulative-emissions/

Extract: "Something I’ve mentioned here quite regularly is the idea that warming depends roughly linearly on cumulative (total) emissions. This is slightly counter intuitive, in that warming depends logarithmically on atmospheric CO2 concentration. The reason is essentially that it incorporates climate sensitivity (which depends on changing atmospheric concentrations) and carbon cycle feedbacks, into a single quantity. It seems that the airborne fraction is expected to increase so as to compensate for the logarithmic dependence on atmospheric CO2 concentration. In others words, the expectation is that if we double how much we’ve emitted, we’ll more than double the human contribution to the atmospheric CO2 concentration.
There are a number of papers that have considered this and the general result is that it appears to be a reasonable relationship for most realistic future emission pathways, although it might over-estimate the warming from the highest emission pathway. The quantity is called the transient response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) and is thought to have a range of 0.8 to 2.5oC per 1000GtC for real emission pathways, and 1 to 2oC per 1000GtC, for a 1% per year CO2 only emission pathway. The reason for the difference is simply that the real emission pathways include non-CO2 GHGs, while the TCRE is defined in terms of the CO2 emissions only."

&

Andrew H. MacDougall and Pierre Friedlingstein (2015), "The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions", J. Climate, 28, 4217–4230, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00036.1


http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00036.1

Abstract: "The transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) is a useful metric of climate warming that directly relates the cause of climate change (cumulative carbon emissions) to the most used index of climate change (global mean near-surface temperature change). In this paper, analytical reasoning is used to investigate why TCRE is near constant over a range of cumulative emissions up to 2000 Pg of carbon. In addition, a climate model of intermediate complexity, forced with a constant flux of CO2 emissions, is used to explore the effect of terrestrial carbon cycle feedback strength on TCRE. The analysis reveals that TCRE emerges from the diminishing radiative forcing from CO2 per unit mass being compensated for by the diminishing ability of the ocean to take up heat and carbon. The relationship is maintained as long as the ocean uptake of carbon, which is simulated to be a function of the CO2 emissions rate, dominates changes in the airborne fraction of carbon. Strong terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks have a dependence on the rate of carbon emission and, when present, lead to TRCE becoming rate dependent. Despite these feedbacks, TCRE remains roughly constant over the range of the representative concentration pathways and therefore maintains its primary utility as a metric of climate change."

&

Andrew H. MacDougall (2016), "The Transient Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions: a Review", Current Climate Change Reports 2, 39-47, DOI: 10.1007/s40641-015-0030-6


http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs40641-015-0030-6


Abstract: "The transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) is a metric of climate change that directly relates the primary cause of climate change (cumulative CO2 emissions) to global mean temperature change. The metric was developed once researchers noticed that the cumulative CO2 versus temperature change curve was nearly linear for almost all Earth system model output. Here, recent literature on the origin, limits, and value of TCRE is reviewed. TCRE appears to emerge from the diminishing radiative forcing per unit mass of atmospheric CO2 being compensated by diminishing efficiency of ocean heat uptake and the modulation of airborne fraction of carbon by ocean processes. The best estimate of the value of TCRE is between 0.8 to 2.5 K EgC−1. Overall, TCRE has been shown to be a conceptually simple and robust metric of climate warming with many applications in formulating climate policy."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #604 on: March 08, 2016, 01:32:56 PM »
Obama administration pays out $500m to climate change project
Quote
The Obama administration has made a first installment on its $3bn pledge to help poor countries fight climate change – defying Republican opposition to the president’s environmental plan.

The $500m payment to the Green Climate Fund was seen as critical to shoring up international confidence in Barack Obama’s ability to deliver on the pledges made at the United Nations’ climate change conference in Paris in late 2015.

Obama is expected to announce a number of joint climate initiatives when Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau visits Washington this week, sources familiar with the plans said.

The White House is also working with United Nations officials to encourage countries to formally approve the Paris climate agreement ahead of a signing ceremony on 22 April.

At least 55 countries, representing at least 55% of global climate emissions, must ratify the agreement before it formally takes effect.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/07/obama-administration-pays-out-500m-to-climate-change-project?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #605 on: March 08, 2016, 11:27:56 PM »
Obama & Trudeau are promising to work together to fight climate change:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/08/barack-obama-and-justin-trudeau-to-join-forces-on-climate-change

Extract: "Barack Obama and Justin Trudeau will commit to work together to fight climate change and protect an Arctic experiencing the mildest winter ever recorded, sources familiar with the initiatives said.

The two leaders were expected to announce a number of common climate measures at a meeting at the White House this week, from a 45% cut in methane emissions from the oil and gas industry to protections for a rapidly warming Arctic."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #606 on: March 09, 2016, 07:25:57 PM »
More on the upcoming Obama-Trudeau agreement.  This article's focus is on how things have changed from Stephen Harper's term in office.

A Brief History Of Canada’s Stunning About-Face on Climate Change
Quote
Newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President Obama are expected to sign onto a joint climate change strategy during Trudeau’s upcoming visit to Washington. The agreement, to be approved this week, will likely touch on automotive fuel standards and include measures to spur the adoption of electric vehicles.

This is notable for two reasons. First, crude oil is Canada’s largest export, and the United States is Canada’s biggest customer. That Trudeau is working with Obama to cut petroleum consumption on both sides of the border, even as plummeting oil prices spur a downturn in Canada’s economy, is nothing short of remarkable.

Second, a bilateral agreement to cut carbon pollution would almost certainly not have been possible even a year ago. For the last decade, Trudeau’s predecessor, Stephen Harper, undermined climate action seemingly at every turn, genuflecting to Canada’s most powerful and politically influential industry — oil. Since Trudeau’s Liberal Party swept to power in October, Canada has seen a stunning about-face on climate policy.

During his tenure, Harper made no attempts to regulate carbon pollution through cap-and-trade or a carbon tax. He muzzled scientists, cut research funding, targeted environmental groups, and secretly committed government money to advocating for the export of tar sands oil. To environmentalists, Harper was a villain. Climate Action Network Europe ranked Canada among Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia in its 2015 Climate Change Performance Index, a rating of countries’ climate policies.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/03/09/3757245/canada-energy-history/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #607 on: March 09, 2016, 07:33:17 PM »
The linked reference uses empirically informed levels of strategic reasoning to calibrate model simulations of international negotiations on climate change.  First, the research shows that when a tipping point threshold has been clearly identified then it is easier to achieve an international agree such as the Paris Pact; thus using inversion the fact that the Paris Pact was achieved is an indication that clear evidence of an impending tipping point was presented to the negotiators at CoP21.  Second, the research shows that "policy elites" (like those in the EU & the USA) often use higher degrees of strategic reasoning to try to beggar their neighbors when negotiating national emission levels within such agreements; which indicates that it will likely be extremely difficult to ratchet-up additional emission restriction; which increases the probability for climate catastrophe this century:

Vilhelm Verendel, Daniel J. A. Johansson & Kristian Lindgren (2016), "Strategic reasoning and bargaining in catastrophic climate change games", Nature Climate Change, Volume: 6, Pages: 265–268, doi:10.1038/nclimate2849

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n3/full/nclimate2849.html

Abstract: "Two decades of international negotiations show that agreeing on emission levels for climate change mitigation is a hard challenge. However, if early warning signals were to show an upcoming tipping point with catastrophic damage, theory and experiments suggest this could simplify collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the actual threshold, no country would have a free-ride incentive to increase emissions over the tipping point, but it remains for countries to negotiate their emission levels to reach these agreements. We model agents bargaining for emission levels using strategic reasoning to predict emission bids by others and ask how this affects the possibility of reaching agreements that avoid catastrophic damage. It is known that policy elites often use a higher degree of strategic reasoning, and in our model this increases the risk for climate catastrophe. Moreover, some forms of higher strategic reasoning make agreements to reduce greenhouse gases unstable. We use empirically informed levels of strategic reasoning when simulating the model."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #608 on: March 11, 2016, 04:11:12 AM »
Obama and Trudeau Pledge New Climate Action to Protect the Arctic
Quote
In a joint statement, Obama and Trudeau pledged to work together to boost investment in clean energy; establish a pan-Arctic marine protection network and low-impact Arctic shipping corridors; limit greenhouse gas emissions, including methane; and pursue a number of other initiatives designed to slow global warming and speed up protection of the fragile Arctic. As Mashable reports, the emerging North American alliance on climate change comes after decades of rancor between the two countries on the environment—but depending on who wins the White House this November, the partnership may not last long.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/03/10/barack_obama_and_justin_trudeau_announce_new_climate_and_arctic_initiatives.html
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jbg

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #609 on: March 15, 2016, 01:40:56 PM »

I highly doubt that $5 trillion is all that is needed to keep the world safe. I'll have a deeper look and try to find why.
I highly doubt that the $5 trillion would not just wind up in the Swiss bank accounts of Third World autocrats.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #610 on: March 15, 2016, 11:16:40 PM »
Zero carbon emissions target to be enshrined in UK law
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The UK will enshrine in law a long-term goal of reducing its carbon emissions to zero, as called for in last year’s historic Paris climate deal.

Responding to former Labour leader Ed Miliband’s call to put the target into law, energy minister Andrea Leadsom told parliament on Monday: “The government believes that we will need to take the step of enshrining the Paris goal for net zero emissions in UK law. The question is not whether but how we do it.”

The UK is already legally bound by the Climate Change Act to reduce emissions 80% by 2050, but a law mandating a 100% cut would mark a dramatic increase in ambition. The final 20% is seen as the most difficult to cut, as it would have to come from sectors such as farming, which are not as easy to decarbonise as power plants.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/14/zero-carbon-emissions-target-enshrined-uk-law
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #611 on: March 17, 2016, 08:38:23 PM »
Poland Hardens Opposition to Stricter European Climate Policies
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Poland adopted a resolution against stepping up European Union climate ambitions, hardening its opposition to stricter emission policies before negotiations about how the bloc’s 28 member states should share the burden of cutting pollution in the next decade.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-15/poland-hardens-opposition-to-stricter-european-climate-policies
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #612 on: March 19, 2016, 08:08:52 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #613 on: March 23, 2016, 05:10:13 PM »
FlightPath 1.5 Launches 100 Days after COP21
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Leading environmental organizations today launched FlightPath 1.5, an international campaign aimed at solving the defining global climate change issue of 2016: reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the airline industry.

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the United Nations (UN) decision-making body charged with regulating aviation emissions, takes up the issue in September. If it fails to take bold steps, aviation emissions are projected to triple by 2050. Aviation, a top-ten global polluter, was not directly addressed in the landmark COP21 Paris climate agreement agreed to 100 days ago today.

In response to the growing urgency to address aviation emissions, FlightPath 1.5 is focused on ensuring that ICAO and its 191 Member States adopt a meaningful new agreement in 2016. The time window for action is tight: October 7, 2016 is the last day of the two-week ICAO Assembly, and the next Assembly won’t happen again for another three years. Inaction by ICAO threatens to directly undermine efforts to limit planetary warming to no more than 1.5°C. The Paris Agreement set the 1.5°C target to avoid a climatic tipping point of irreversible climate impacts.
http://blueandgreentomorrow.com/2016/03/22/flightpath-1-5-launches-100-days-cop21/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #614 on: March 31, 2016, 05:49:34 PM »
The linked reference indicates that ESLD thinking with regards to methane & nitrous oxide emissions from anthropogenic land use (largely farming), will make achieving the CoP21 target even harder to achieve than a continuous WWII type of effort (which is currently not planned):

Hanqin Tian, Chaoqun Lu, Philippe Ciais, Anna M. Michalak, Josep G. Canadell, Eri Saikawa, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Kevin R. Gurney, Stephen Sitch, Bowen Zhang, Jia Yang, Philippe Bousquet, Lori Bruhwiler, Guangsheng Chen, Edward Dlugokencky, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jerry Melillo, Shufen Pan, Benjamin Poulter, Ronald Prinn, Marielle Saunois, Christopher R. Schwalm & Steven C. Wofsy (10 March 2016), "The terrestrial biosphere as a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere", Nature, Volume: 531, Pages: 225–228, doi:10.1038/nature16946

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v531/n7593/full/nature16946.html

Abstract: "The terrestrial biosphere can release or absorb the greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), and therefore has an important role in regulating atmospheric composition and climate. Anthropogenic activities such as land-use change, agriculture and waste management have altered terrestrial biogenic greenhouse gas fluxes, and the resulting increases in methane and nitrous oxide emissions in particular can contribute to climate change. The terrestrial biogenic fluxes of individual greenhouse gases have been studied extensively, but the net biogenic greenhouse gas balance resulting from anthropogenic activities and its effect on the climate system remains uncertain. Here we use bottom-up (inventory, statistical extrapolation of local flux measurements, and process-based modelling) and top-down (atmospheric inversions) approaches to quantify the global net biogenic greenhouse gas balance between 1981 and 2010 resulting from anthropogenic activities and its effect on the climate system. We find that the cumulative warming capacity of concurrent biogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions is a factor of about two larger than the cooling effect resulting from the global land carbon dioxide uptake from 2001 to 2010. This results in a net positive cumulative impact of the three greenhouse gases on the planetary energy budget, with a best estimate (in petagrams of CO2 equivalent per year) of 3.9 ± 3.8 (top down) and 5.4 ± 4.8 (bottom up) based on the GWP100 metric (global warming potential on a 100-year time horizon). Our findings suggest that a reduction in agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions, particularly in Southern Asia, may help mitigate climate change."


See also:
https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-food-production-overwhelm-efforts-combat-climate-change.html
Extract: "Each year our terrestrial biosphere absorbs about a quarter of all the carbon dioxide emissions that humans produce. This a very good thing; it helps to moderate the warming produced by human activities such as burning fossil fuels and cutting down forests.
But in a paper published in Nature today, we show that emissions from other human activities, particularly food production, are overwhelming this cooling effect. This is a worrying trend, at a time when CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels are slowing down, and is clearly not consistent with efforts to stabilise global warming well below 2℃ as agreed at the Paris climate conference.
To explain why, we need to look at two other greenhouse gases: methane and nitrous oxide."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #615 on: March 31, 2016, 07:12:50 PM »
ASLR,

Would you agree that an increase in vertical farming could reduce food-related greenhouse gas emissions?

Vertical Farming Could Cut 20% off Global Emissions
https://urbanverticalproject.wordpress.com/2015/12/03/vertical-farming-could-cut-20-of-global-emissions/


Quote
The Rise of Vertical Farms

- Farming is ruining the environment, and not enough arable land remains to feed a projected 9.5 billion people by 2050.
- Growing food in glass high-rises could drastically reduce fossil-fuel emissions and recycle city wastewater that now pollutes waterways.
- A one-square-block farm 30 stories high could yield as much food as 2,400 outdoor acres, with less subsequent spoilage.
- Existing hydroponic greenhouses provide a basis for prototype vertical farms now being considered by urban planners in cities worldwide.
http://www.nature.com/scientificamerican/journal/v301/n5/full/scientificamerican1109-80.html

I appreciate your thoughts on this.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #616 on: April 01, 2016, 04:49:20 PM »
ASLR,

Would you agree that an increase in vertical farming could reduce food-related greenhouse gas emissions?

...

I appreciate your thoughts on this.

Sigmetnow,

While I would agree that if contentiously applied vertical farming could be beneficial for relatively rich cities like New York, London, Tokyo, etc. But with rapid population growth concentrated in the developing world (Nigeria, India, etc.) I do not think that these developing countries will have sufficient resources to implement vertical farming on a widespread bases.  Therefore, on average I still believe that food production will push the CoP21 scenarios towards higher radiative forcing than assumed.

Again, I think that limited use of this technology can & should be developed, but it can only be one limited beachhead in a continuous WWII level of effort (currently not planned by CoP21) required to effectively address climate change.

Best,
ASLR

See also:

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/03/us-increase-meat-consumption-europe-less-meat-sustainability

Extract: "The USDA has predicted that 2016 will be the biggest year in a decade in Americans' consumption of beef. We'll eat an estimated 53.4 pounds, nearly half a pound more per person than last year."
« Last Edit: April 01, 2016, 05:19:41 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #617 on: April 01, 2016, 04:55:10 PM »
First we had shale gas developments, then coal to syngas development in China, and now we are likely to have natural gas development from methane hydrates in countries like Japan and New Zealand (within the next few decades).  While often marketed as a bridge to a sustainable energy future, due to leaks methane can have a stronger radiative footprint than coal.  We need to learn to leave fossil fuels in the ground, not to show how clever we are in developing new technology to develop non-conventional fossil fuel energy sources (which also make us richer so we consume more):


http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8422140/Ice-gas-holds-huge-potential

Extract: "Yesterday, in a world first, Japan said it had extracted natural "ice" gas from methane hydrates beneath the sea off its coasts in a technological coup. All the gas hydrates around the coast could meet the country's gas needs for the next century and radically change the world's energy outlook.
Tokyo hoped to bring the gas to market on a commercial scale within five years, with the immediate discovery potentially holding the equivalent of 11 years of gas imports.
New Zealand's potential methane hydrate deposits are similar to those in Japan.

New Zealand has some of the biggest methane hydrate deposits in the world, with the potential to meet all New Zealand's needs and create a gas export for decades.
The largest gas hydrate province is on the Hikurangi Margin east of the North Island, with up 5 to 50 trillion cubic feet, compared with the Maui gasfield's 4 tcf at time of discovery."

Edit: I note that the Hikurangi Margin is current venting significant amounts of methane, as the associated seafloor is moving.
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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #618 on: April 01, 2016, 11:13:04 PM »
ASLR


Do you have a link for the Hikurangi Margin emissions? If depths are as indicated in your link, methane escaping to the atmosphere through that much sea water is quite unusual.


Thanks
Terry

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #619 on: April 02, 2016, 12:14:15 AM »
ASLR


Do you have a link for the Hikurangi Margin emissions? If depths are as indicated in your link, methane escaping to the atmosphere through that much sea water is quite unusual.


Thanks
Terry

Terry,

I believe that the methane emissions are episodic when the local seafloor slides; and the following link, and quote, references just possible methane hydrate emission source of the coast of New Zealand in just 200m of water:


http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/10039610/Methane-field-discovered-off-Gisborne-coast

Quote: "A "huge network" of frozen methane and methane gas has been discovered in ocean sediments 20 kilometres to 50km off Gisborne.
A joint New Zealand-German research team found 99 gas flares in a 50-square kilometre area, venting in columns up to 250 metres high, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) said.
Methane was also found building up beneath a large landslide and being released along the landslide margin, and there were indications of large areas of methane hydrates - ice-like frozen methane - below the sea floor.
The discoveries were made by a 16-member team using state-of-the-art seismic and echosounder technology on board the Niwa research vessel Tangaroa.
The concentration of sea floor gas vents was the densest known off the New Zealand coast, and the vents were in much shallower water than usual.
Venting usually happened around a depth of 800m on large ridges in the middle of the continental slope, Niwa marine geologist and voyage leader Dr Joshu Mountjoy said.
In this case venting was going on along the edge of the shelf in as little as 200m of water.
The work is part of a larger project focused on the interaction between gas hydrates and and slow-moving active landslides. The area surveyed was known to have large active landslides, up to 15km long and 100m thick.
Researchers were also hoping to understand whether some methane was reaching the atmosphere, rather than being mixed up in the water column and consumed by biological processes as normally happened, Mountjoy said.
"Methane is a very effective greenhouse gas and seabed methane release has the potential to dramatically alter the earth's climate," he said.
"As ocean temperatures change the methane hydrate system has the potential to become unstable."
It would be interesting to find out whether global warming was changing the ocean system off Gisborne and causing more methane expulsion than previously. Higher ocean temperatures could change conditions so ice could turn back into a gas.
It remained to be seen whether the area off Gisborne was sensitive to climate change, Mountjoy said.
"We may be entering into a situation where global climate change is influencing the methane hydrate system."
The researchers were also trying to understand what caused the large, slow landslides in the area.
In a recently submitted scientific paper they proposed the landslides might be the sea floor equivalent of glaciers, with frozen methane rather than water ice. Alternatively pressurized gas could be causing landslides to move down slope."

See also the attached image of the methane gas leaks and the information at the following link:

http://www.niwa.co.nz/news/joint-new-zealand-german-3d-survey-reveals-massive-seabed-gas-hydrate-and-methane-system

Also, to state the obvious, if the water depth is about 200-m and the column of methane bubbles in the water are about 250m tall, then a significant about of methane must be reaching the atmosphere.

Also see:
https://eos.org/project-updates/investigations-of-shallow-slow-slip-offshore-of-new-zealand

Extract: "
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #620 on: April 04, 2016, 04:05:31 AM »
UN’s Paris climate deal could enter into force this year
Quote
The Paris Climate Agreement could become operational by the end of 2016.

This would be well before many of the diplomats who negotiated it (and the journalists who covered it) would have expected, but it is the inescapable conclusion of a careful reading of the deal and accompanying documents.

While the official mandate under which countries negotiated the Agreement stated that it was to “come into effect and be implemented from 2020” – and while numerous draft versions contained language that would have delayed entry into force until that date – the final version of the Agreement contains no such restriction.

Instead, as adopted, states agreed simply that it will enter into force thirty days after at least 55 countries, representing at least 55% of global emissions, ratify it.


Taken together, China and the United States account for nearly 40% of global emissions.

If both ratify the Agreement this year – and they announced on Thursday that that they will each take “respective domestic steps” to do just that – entry into force will require only a further 53 countries (out of a remaining 193) representing a further 17% of global emissions.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/04/01/uns-paris-climate-deal-could-enter-into-force-this-year/
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #621 on: April 04, 2016, 05:22:15 AM »
"entry into force will require only a further 53 countries (out of a remaining 193) representing a further 17% of global emissions."

Presumably this is based on averaging all the emissions, but surely it would only take a much smaller number of high emitters to complete that last 17%: the EU (28 nations) would probably do it, with some combination of the top two or three of any of the next five top emitters: India, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, Japan...
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #622 on: April 04, 2016, 10:21:11 AM »
"entry into force will require only a further 53 countries (out of a remaining 193) representing a further 17% of global emissions."

Presumably this is based on averaging all the emissions, but surely it would only take a much smaller number of high emitters to complete that last 17%: the EU (28 nations) would probably do it, with some combination of the top two or three of any of the next five top emitters: India, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, Japan...

First, the pact says you have to have both at least 55 countries adopting and these adopting countries need to represent 55% of global emissions.

Second, it is not clear to me what "enter into force" means for a voluntary pact.

Third, it is not clear to me what constitutes "global emissions"; e.g. are tropical rainforest wildfires counted; and what GWP do they use for methane to calculate CO2-e?
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #623 on: April 04, 2016, 09:40:40 PM »
Major Companies Back Obama’s Climate Regulations In Court
Quote
Four big companies have joined the legal battle in favor of the Obama administration’s signature climate change regulations that would curb emissions from coal-fired power plants.

Software maker Adobe, candy company Mars, furniture giant IKEA, and insurance behemoth Blue Cross Blue Shield filed an amicus brief in the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C., in support of the Clean Power Plan, which aims to reduce climate change-causing pollution.
...

“(We) believe the Clean Power Plan, when fully implemented, would not cause business harm to (our) operations as large energy consumers and purchasers,” the four companies wrote in their submission to the court. “Swift and full implementation of the Clean Power Plan will directly benefit” the companies’ operations.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/companies-climate-regulations_us_56fee2fee4b083f5c607c33d
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #624 on: April 05, 2016, 02:28:18 AM »
@UNFCCC:
Quote
Our new guide to everything u wanted to know about the #ParisAgreement & didn't dare to ask
 https://twitter.com/unfccc/status/717009597794529281
UN Climate Change
Paris Agreement
http://newsroom.unfccc.int/paris-agreement/the-paris-climate-change-agreement-and-associated-decisions-a-guide-to-its-purpose-and-structure/
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #625 on: April 06, 2016, 02:00:18 AM »
Catholic institutions support Clean Power Plan
Quote
Citing a moral obligation to care for the natural world and all inhabitants of the earth, 30 Catholic and faith-based institutions filed an amicus brief with a federal appeals court in support of the Clean Power Plan.

The brief argues that the Environmental Protection Agency has the duty to protect human health from harmful pollution in ways outlined in the plan, which establishes federal limits on carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants.

The brief said evidence of the human cause of climate change is “undeniable.”
http://catholicphilly.com/2016/04/news/national-news/catholic-institutions-join-brief-supporting-clean-power-plan/
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #626 on: April 07, 2016, 02:44:11 AM »
Banks Pledge $7 Billion to Scale Up Clean Energy Investment
Quote
“By providing $8 billion in commitments, we can help to advance new investment opportunities in clean energy, as well as other sustainable development goals and achieve the necessary scale for a positive impact on climate change.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-06/banks-pledge-7-billion-to-scale-up-clean-energy-investment
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #627 on: April 07, 2016, 04:11:49 PM »
US and Canada continue climate alliance with move to curb methane emissions
Meeting represents one of the last chances to grow on climate partnership agreed on by Justin Trudeau and Barack Obama before US president leaves office
Quote
The US and Canadian leaders enjoyed a mind meld on climate change, according to Gina McCarthy, who heads the Environmental Protection Agency.

“We have real kindred spirits in Canada right now, and a tremendous interest on the part of prime minister Trudeau and president Obama to really work together,” McCarthy told a breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor.

Obama and Trudeau agreed last month to cut methane emissions from the oil and gas industry by up to 45% from 2012 levels by 2025. The understanding was a break with the pro-energy policies of Stephen Harper, the former prime minister, who had lobbied heavily for the Keystone XL pipeline.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/06/us-canada-obama-trudeau-climate-change-methane-emissions
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #628 on: April 08, 2016, 12:28:57 AM »
I listened to interviews with both the EPA administrator and the Minister of Environment and Climate Change as well as presentations they made later in the day. My first reaction was frustration because this seemed like so little and they both seemed to put into terms of promoting the oil and gas industry.

Then I finally realized the brilliance of the proposed methane reductions. They get to seem like they are promoting the oil industry while actually ensuring its decline.

Enforcing reduction of fugitive emission of methane is very much like enforcing mercury, SO2 and NO2 reductions from coal power plants. People will see it as the right thing to do. Once the costs of eliminating mercury, SO2 and NO2 are included coal became uneconomical and that's without even adding a price on the carbon. Forcing the oil and gas  industry to cut fugitive emission of methane  by 45% is one way of internalizing the negative costs of methane.

I am convinced this is in effect adding a carbon price on oil without ever calling it that. This additional cost will render more of the unconventional oil plays uneconomical. It will reduce the profitability of existing oil and gas production driving the downstream price up and reducing the amount available for future investment.

As well if they actually manage to get fugitive emission down as planned it is a huge reduction in existing GHG pollution.

Very crafty!

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #629 on: April 09, 2016, 02:18:02 AM »
April 22 Paris Agreement Signing in New York
Quote
The Paris Climate Change Agreement opens for signature on 22 April 2016 during a high-level ceremony convened by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in New York, marking an important international push on the way to the agreement’s timely entry into force.

Over 130 countries have confirmed to United Nations headquarters that they will attend the signing ceremony, including some 60 world leaders, amongst them President Francois Hollande of France
http://newsroom.unfccc.int/paris-agreement/april-22-paris-agreement-signing-ceremony-in-new-york/
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #630 on: April 10, 2016, 10:32:03 PM »
The linked article (& associated peer reviewed paper) indicate that merely investing in renewable and/or nuclear power, without large investments in Negative Emissions Technologies, NET, will be insufficient to achieve the CoP21 goal of staying below a 2C increase (above pre-industrial):

http://phys.org/news/2016-04-renewables-nuclear-substitute-carbon-dioxide.html

Extract: "In a paper published in Nature Climate Change, leading climate physicist Professor Myles Allen, from the Oxford Martin Programme on Resource Stewardship, argues that investment in technologies to capture and dispose of carbon dioxide is vital to stabilise climate, especially at temperatures 'well below 2 degrees Celsius', as called for in Paris, and that 'spare no expense' approaches to cutting emissions in the short term may even be counterproductive. "


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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #631 on: April 10, 2016, 11:11:48 PM »
World Bank to spend 28% of investments on climate change projects
Quote
The World Bank has made a “fundamental shift” in its role of alleviating global poverty, by refocusing its financing efforts towards tackling climate change, the group said on Thursday.

The world’s biggest provider of public finance to developing countries said it would spend 28% of its investments directly on climate change projects, and that all of its future spending would take account of global warming.

At last year’s landmark conference on climate change in Paris, the World Bank and its fellow development banks were made the linchpins of providing financial assistance to the poor world, to enable countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the effects of global warming.
...

John Roome, senior director for climate change at the World Bank, told journalists: “This is a fundamental shift for the World Bank. We are putting climate change into our DNA. Climate change will drive 100 million more people into poverty in the next 15 years [unless action is taken].”

At least $16bn a year, from across the World Bank group, which includes other development and finance institutions, will be directed to climate change projects, including renewable energy and energy efficiency. The group will aim to mobilise $13bn in extra funding from the private sector within four years, for instance through joint funding programmes. By 2020, these efforts should amount to about $29bn a year, nearly a third of the $100bn a year in climate finance promised by rich countries to the poor as part of global climate change agreements.

As part of the institution’s new strategy, it will help to fund the construction of enough renewable energy to power 150m homes in developing countries, and build early warning systems of climate-related disasters – such as storms and floods – for 100 million people.

The bank will also target “smart” agriculture systems, which use less water and energy and retain soil fertility, and will help countries develop their transport and urban infrastructure to produce much less carbon. All projects considered for funding – including health, education and other development priorities – will be screened for their vulnerability to the impacts of climate change.

The World Bank has attracted strong criticism in the past for backing the construction of high-emissions infrastructure, chiefly coal-fired power stations, and had already made moves away from such investments. Roome refused to rule out fossil fuel investments in the future, but said they would be subject to strict criteria, to do with their necessity, ensuring the most efficient technology was used, and investigation of alternatives. For instance, he said, gas could provide a “transition” away from high-carbon fuels for countries struggling to build new renewable energy capacity.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/07/world-bank-investments-climate-change-environment
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #632 on: April 11, 2016, 05:05:46 PM »
The linked article discusses the efforts of a new U.N. panel trying to determine how to limit GMST rise to 1.5C (because the consequences of reaching this limit are high); while other scientists are concerned that it may already be too late to achieve this high ambition goal.

http://www.globalpost.com/article/6758329/2016/04/11/un-panel-study-cap-global-warming-may-be-out-reach
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #633 on: April 11, 2016, 05:44:36 PM »
Germany, Austria call for higher EU 2030 climate ambition
Environment ministers criticise ‘very weak’ European Commission response to Paris climate pact – but other states defend existing target
Quote
Germany, Austria, Portugal and Luxembourg are leading calls for the EU to increase its 2030 climate targets in light of December’s Paris agreement.

At a webcast meeting of environment ministers on Friday, they criticised the European Commission for advising no change was needed.

Several others spoke of the need to fully participate in the 5-yearly reviews of national climate plans set out in the UN text.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/03/04/germany-austria-call-for-higher-eu-2030-climate-ambition/
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #634 on: April 11, 2016, 08:19:45 PM »
How Obama’s fast move to join the Paris climate agreement could tie up the next president
Quote
In late March, when the United States and China jointly declared that they’d be moving to immediately sign and then join the Paris climate agreement “as early as possible this year,” it was seen as the latest show of joint leadership by the two largest emitters.

But there’s another possible implication that went largely unnoticed. If the nations of the world, led by its two biggest contributors to climate change, jump through all the hoops needed to bring this agreement into force before President Obama leaves office, the next U.S. president could have a difficult time — or at least, a long wait — if he or she wanted to get out of it.

The Paris agreement does not state or limit when it can go into effect — it simply depends on when enough countries formally sign and join it. If that occurred while Obama is still in office, “then the next president could not withdraw until sometime in 2019, and the withdrawal would not be effective until sometime in 2020,” said Daniel Bodansky, a scholar of international environmental law at Arizona State University and a former attorney at the State Department focused on climate change.
...
But for the agreement to take effect, two steps must be taken. First, nations must formally sign the agreement — which they can do starting on April 22, when a signing ceremony is being held at the United Nations’ headquarters in New York. The United States and China have pledged to sign immediately then, along with some 130 other countries.

Second, nations must also take further steps to implement the agreement at home, before going back to the U.N. and depositing what are called their “instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.” After signing, “then they each go through their respective domestic processes to formally ratify, or approve, there’s a whole string of alternate verbs that are used depending on one’s process,” says Elliott Diringer, executive vice president of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.

The United States has said that the Paris agreement is not, in its eyes, a formal, legally binding treaty, which means that it doesn’t have to be ratified by the Senate. Thus, the formal process is likely to amount to a presidential order or statement, Diringer said.

When at least 55 countries, who account for at least 55 percent of global emissions, have all moved to join the agreement in this way, the Paris agreement then enters into force after a 30 day wait period. According to data just released by the U.N., the U.S. and China accounted for around 38 percent of emissions, meaning that if the two act swiftly, it will be much easier to meet the emissions threshold. Other big emitters who could then help substantially in getting to 55 percent include Russia (7.5 percent), India (4.1 percent), Japan (3.79 percent), and Brazil (2.48 percent).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/04/11/obamas-fast-move-to-join-the-paris-climate-agreement-could-tie-up-the-next-president/
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #635 on: April 11, 2016, 08:29:47 PM »
Never mind the record high temperatures or sea level rise predictions.  What's scaring the world into quickly ratifying the Paris climate agreement?  A possible U.S. Republican presidency! 
Thanks, Trump!   ;)

Nations seek rapid ratification of Paris climate deal, four-year lock
Quote
Many nations are pushing for swift ratification of a Paris agreement to slow climate change and lock it in place for four years before a change in the White House next year that might bring a weakening of Washington's long-term commitment.

More than 130 nations with 60 leaders including French President Francois Hollande are due to sign December's pact at a U.N. ceremony in New York on April 22, the most ever for a U.N. agreement on an opening day, the United Nations said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-paris-idUSKCN0X70A6
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #636 on: April 14, 2016, 11:32:24 PM »
Ms Figueres thinks that the CoP21 Paris Pack is 10 years too late:

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2016/0414/Paris-climate-deal-on-target-two-years-ahead-of-schedule

Extract: ""We are two minutes to midnight on climate change. If you ask me, the Paris agreement is 10 years too late," said Ms. Figueres, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change."
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #637 on: April 15, 2016, 11:06:40 PM »
The head of the World Bank Group believes that the CoP21 Paris Pact can only be realized if strong carbon pricing plans are implemented worldwide shortly after the pact is put into effect.


http://www.bna.com/world-bank-head-n57982069907/


Extract: "Fulfilling the promise of the Paris Agreement is possible only “if we move forward with carbon pricing [and] take very focused action on reducing the cost of renewables [and] if we pair that with investment opportunities for institutional investors so that they can actually get a higher return out of investing in what they believe in” such as renewable energy, he said."
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #638 on: April 16, 2016, 11:54:18 PM »
The linked CarbonBrief article summarizes the findings of a 3-day IPCC meeting in Nairobi, including the timing & details of AR6 & subsequent reports, and some special reports on the 1.5C goal, oceans and cryosphere and food security:

http://www.carbonbrief.org/the-ipccs-priorities-for-the-next-six-years-1-5c-oceans-cities-and-food-security

Extract: "At a three-day meeting in Nairobi this week, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made a few important decisions, including what the topics for its next “special reports” should be.
Climate impacts at 1.5C, the oceans and cryosphere, and food security will all be getting special treatment in the next few years.

As in previous years, the next big IPCC report – the sixth assessment report (AR6) –  will be released in three stages, the IPCC chair, Dr Hoesung Lee, confirmed today.
The three working groups – broadly covering the physical science, adaptation, and mitigation – will be published between 2020 and 2021. The synthesis report, which is meant to link all three working groups into one concise storyline, will be published in 2022.
Lee told a press conference in Nairobi this morning (see video below) the timing of the synthesis report is deliberate, so that it would be “in good time” for the global stocktake that nations will be undertaking in 2023, as agreed at COP21 in December.
The IPCC will also consider publishing its big reports every five years, rather than every six or seven."
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #639 on: April 18, 2016, 07:59:03 PM »
The linked article entitled: "Does premature Paris climate deal risk a painful birth?", discusses how the early (2018?) ratification of the CoP21 agreement could cause a number of difficulties and misunderstandings:

http://in.reuters.com/article/us-global-climatechange-politics-analysi-idINKCN0XF1IX

Extract: "The Paris accord will enter into force when at least 55 countries representing at least 55 percent of global emissions ratify or formally join it in another way.

But while major emitters, notably China and the United States, have said they will pursue steps to adopt the agreement as early as possible, domestic politics may make that a challenge.

In some countries, including the United States, leaders are expected to use their executive authority to accede to the Paris deal. But in others, it will have to be discussed in parliament or congress and, in some cases, will require new legislation, Abeysinghe noted.
 
"For some of our countries, sensitizing the parliaments and the parliamentarians itself is a big challenge. The concern our countries have is that it will take time for them to ratify," she said."

See also:
http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060035780
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #640 on: April 19, 2016, 02:25:53 AM »
Fossil fuels could be phased out worldwide in a decade, says new study
Quote
The worldwide reliance on burning fossil fuels to create energy could be phased out in a decade, according to an article published by a major energy think tank in the UK.

Professor Benjamin Sovacool, Director of the Sussex Energy Group at the University of Sussex, believes that the next great energy revolution could take place in a fraction of the time of major changes in the past.

But it would take a collaborative, interdisciplinary, multi-scalar effort to get there, he warns. And that effort must learn from the trials and tribulations from previous energy systems and technology transitions.

In a paper published in the peer-reviewed journal Energy Research & Social Science, Professor Sovacool analyses energy transitions throughout history and argues that only looking towards the past can often paint an overly bleak and unnecessary picture.

Moving from wood to coal in Europe, for example, took between 96 and 160 years, whereas electricity took 47 to 69 years to enter into mainstream use.

But this time the future could be different, he says – the scarcity of resources, the threat of climate change and vastly improved technological learning and innovation could greatly accelerate a global shift to a cleaner energy future.

The study highlights numerous examples of speedier transitions that are often overlooked by analysts. For example, Ontario completed a shift away from coal between 2003 and 2014; a major household energy programme in Indonesia took just three years to move two-thirds of the population from kerosene stoves to LPG stoves; and France's nuclear power programme saw supply rocket from four per cent of the electricity supply market in 1970 to 40 per cent in 1982.

Each of these cases has in common strong government intervention coupled with shifts in consumer behaviour, often driven by incentives and pressure from stakeholders.
http://phys.org/news/2016-04-fossil-fuels-phased-worldwide-decade.html
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #641 on: April 19, 2016, 03:30:04 PM »
Quote
@UNFCCC:  Investor groups representing $24 trill in assets urge leaders to fast-track #ParisAgreement bit.ly/1qCHv61
https://twitter.com/unfccc/status/722358187341586433
Global Investor Groups Urge World Leaders to Sign and Accede to the Paris Climate Agreement Rapidly
http://www.ceres.org/press/press-releases/global-investor-groups-urge-world-leaders-to-sign-and-accede-to-the-paris-climate-agreement-rapidly
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #642 on: April 19, 2016, 03:47:35 PM »
Bloomberg:  Paris Climate Pact: Too Little, Too Late?
Global officials gather to sign a treaty that new evidence affirms is already out of date.
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As officials converge this week on the United Nations for the signing ceremony, ominous reports in the four months since the deal have buttressed the doubters: Global warming may hit geological hyperspeed within decades. NASA is projecting that 2016 will break the annual heat record for the third year running; Greenland's ice sheet is experiencing springtime melt weeks earlier than average; and much of West Antarctica is at risk of slipping into the Southern Ocean by 2100, adding a meter to global sea levels. Coastal cities home to millions of people may be underwater during the lifetimes of those born today.

The pact “might not be enough, especially in terms of sea-level rise,” said Rob DeConto, a geoscientist at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst. DeConto co-wrote the Nature study in March warning of Antarctica's fate. “We really need to go to zero emissions as soon as possible.”
...
Luckily, the Paris accord includes a five-year review process, which allows negotiators to tighten their national commitments over time. And there's no way to quantify how the treaty's indirect effects—political capital for activists, changes in consumer energy choices, a renewed push for technological advances—may create opportunities to nudge emissions lower.

The other good news, if you can call it that, is that the gloomy data of 2016 doesn't make things worse. It just affirms what many already suspected: Paris is not enough.
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“No single study is going to cause us to be all, ‘Stop the press! Revise the Paris Agreement!’”
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The latest hot papers may not add much to the big picture, which Nordhaus described in his 2013 book Climate Casino as stunning in its simplicity: “It is that the average temperature of the earth changes with the relative concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-19/paris-climate-pact-too-little-too-late
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #643 on: April 19, 2016, 04:23:40 PM »
While it hurts me to link to articles by climate skeptics; nevertheless, it is worth understanding the up-hill road that even an inadequate Paris Pact must follow.  With thinking like that expressed in these two linked article, it is difficult to see how the world will get off from its current BAU pathway:

http://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-obama-making-promises-he-cant-keep-449148

Extract: "The “optimistic” outlook from the State Department relies on incentivized land-use changes to increase the carbon sink by some 25 percent over the next 10 years. According to EPA numbers, over the past five years the size of the US carbon sink hasn’t changed at all.
All of this —the stayed Clean Power Plan, growing methane emissions, and overly optimistic projections—undermine the viability of Obama’s pledge. Add to the mix energy efficiency measures which don’t work as well as advertised, low gas prices and a growing economy that is still tightly linked to fossil fuels, and you arrive at the unimpeachable conclusion that we are not going to come close to meeting the emissions pledges made by the president."


http://www.wsj.com/articles/notable-quotable-climate-change-and-war-1461021491

Extract: "From April 13 testimony by Robert H. Scales, a retired Army major general, before the U.S. Senate Committee on Environmental and Public Works regarding the Obama administration’s linking of climate change and national security:
The common spark for all wars is jealousy and greed amplified by centuries-long animosities and political ambitions. The catalyst for war is the ignorance of leaders that leads them to misjudge. Humans start wars believing they will be profitable, short, glorious and bloodless. These truths never change. None are affected in the least by air temperature.
But the myth of climate change as an inducement to war continues to curry favor among Washington elites. One source for connecting war to temperature comes from the political closeness between environmentalists and the antiwar movement. Their logic goes like this: “Global warming is bad. Wars are bad. Therefore they must be connected.” Remember, prior to the 1991 Gulf War, environmentalists warned of a decade of global cooling that would come from burning Kuwaiti oil fields. . . .
Because the administration has elevated climate change to the status of a primary threat, the military has become an unwitting agent for propagandizing the dangers of climate change to the American people. . . .
The administration’s contention that climate change is a national-security threat would be just another example of mindlessly applied political correctness if it were not for the potential impact of this silliness on our actual security."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #644 on: April 19, 2016, 04:35:40 PM »
The linked report indicates that the USA GHG emissions increased in 2014 as compared to 2013 (see graph), in a period when sustainable energy sources in the USA were growing rapidly.  Does this mean that as cheap low-cost sustainable energy comes increasingly on-line that we will just use more energy?

https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/usinventoryreport.html

See also:
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/04/19/3770317/greenhouse-emissions-higher/

Extract: "Led globally by China, the United States is the second-largest greenhouse gas emitter in the world, as it accounts for almost 15 percent of all emissions. But over the last decade, there has been a growing momentum in low-carbon alternatives for the energy sector. According to the EPA, the U.S. is generating three times as much wind power, and 30 times as much solar power, as when President Obama took office. However, last year the country invested 20 percent less money in renewable energy than in 2014, according to study put together by the Frankfurt School and United Nations Environment Program."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #645 on: April 20, 2016, 04:30:12 PM »
The linked report "revisits" the 1972 Limits to Growth report by the Club of Rome and finds that since 1972 we have remained on a BAU pathway, and that the most important task at hand is to respond quickly:

Tim Jackson and Robin Webster (April 2016), "Limits Revisited", Creative Commons, CC BYNC-
ND 4.0

http://limits2growth.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Jackson-and-Webster-2016-Limits-Revisited.pdf

Extract: "Four and a half decades after the Club of Rome published its landmark report on Limits to Growth, the study remains critical to our understanding of economic prosperity. This new review of the Limits debate has been written to mark the launch of the UK All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on the Limits to Growth.

There is unsettling evidence that society is still following the ‘standard run’ of the original study – in which overshoot leads to an eventual collapse of production and living standards. Detailed recent studies suggests that production of some key resources may only be decades away.

Certain other limits to growth – less visible in the 1972 report – present equally pressing challenges to modern society. We highlight, in particular, recent work on our proximity to ‘planetary boundaries’ and illustrate this through the challenge of meeting the Paris Agreement on climate change. We also explore the economic challenge of a ‘secular stagnation’."


See also:
https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/parliamentary-group-warns-that-global-fossil-fuels-could-peak-in-less-than-10-years-f0400914ed96#.32i19ayu4

Extract: "A report commissioned on behalf of a cross-party group of British MPs authored by a former UK government advisor, the first of its kind, says that industrial civilisation is currently on track to experience “an eventual collapse of production and living standards” in the next few decades if business-as-usual continues.

“There is unsettling evidence that society is tracking the ‘standard run’ of the original study — which leads ultimately to collapse. Detailed and recent analyses suggest that production peaks for some key resources may only be decades away.”"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #646 on: April 20, 2016, 06:41:43 PM »
The linked article discusses just one of many currently planned conventional oil developments, that if produced would unhinge the Paris Pact agreement:

http://climateanalytics.org/latest/bps-new-planned-oil-venture-is-the-worlds-next-great-carbon-bomb-and-would-annihilate-australias-carbon-budget

Extract: "Climate Analytics was commissioned by The Wilderness Society (Australia) to look at very conservative estimates for the massive new venture off the Great Australian Bight, where BP hold four of the nine prospects in the oilfield.
While BP hasn’t revealed how much oil it estimates is in the resource, a smaller partner in the venture, Bight Petroleum, has estimated there are nine billion barrels of oil in the two prospects it holds. Other companies involved in the venture are Chevron, Santos, and Murphy Oil.
But even then, if burned in Australia, these oil stocks would amount to one third of Australia’s remaining 2˚C carbon budget to 2050, and produce emissions three times that of Australia’s national C02 emissions from fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas) in 2013.
“Our calculations are based on a fraction of what is in this reserve: it could be four times this amount,” said the report’s author and CEO of Climate Analytics, Bill Hare.
“Adding additional oil reserves to the world’s energy system, as proposed by BP, is inconsistent with the global temperature and the emission limits the Australian Government agreed to in Paris last year. It would simply create the pressure for higher emissions – unless the intention is to not meet the warming limits agreed there."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #647 on: April 21, 2016, 01:20:00 AM »
Quote
Eric Holthaus:  This is it, folks. We have btw 4-11yrs to peak global emissions, or risk env/econ collapse.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/722915953231564801
Paris Agreement Pledges Must Be Strengthened in Next Few Years to Limit Warming to 2°C
https://www.climateinteractive.org/analysis/deeper-earlier-emissions-cuts-needed-to-reach-paris-goals/

We Already Know 2016 Will Be the Warmest Year on Record—and It’s Only April
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/04/20/record_temperatures_again_in_march.html
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #648 on: April 22, 2016, 04:26:14 PM »
In my opinion the linked article errs on the side of least drama, but nevertheless it brings into focus the amount of very hard work required before the Paris Pact gains traction:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jan-christoph-minx/paris-climate-accord-politics_b_9749268.html

Extract: "Viewed from a distance, the agreement has left the world with little more than a new institutional setup and some hollow commitments to cap the global temperature rise at “well below” 2 degrees Celsius. Environmentalists claim that far too little climate action is gaining traction on the ground."
« Last Edit: April 22, 2016, 09:56:43 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #649 on: April 22, 2016, 09:20:59 PM »
Corporations Move to Curb Global Warming
CEOs and investors hail the Paris Agreement as the start of a new era to combat climate change
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The deal 195 nations finalized in December in Paris may be the most important climate agreement ever reached, but pockets of corporate leaders, financial regulators and money managers remember it for another reason: a shift in how the business community views global warming.

“For the first time, we’re seeing a genuinely changed landscape for the private sector,” said Edward Cameron, head of policy at We Mean Business, a group of investors and companies urging a shift from fossil fuels. “What we see now is growing momentum out of Paris.”
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/corporations-move-to-curb-global-warming/
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