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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #650 on: April 23, 2016, 02:41:40 AM »
Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
Quote
.@CFigueres receives the Legion of Honor, highest French distinction for her crucial work for #COP21 #ParisAgreement
https://twitter.com/franceonu/status/723604984693186560
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #651 on: April 23, 2016, 02:57:10 AM »
Countries signing the Paris Agreement at the United Nations today.

Quote
175 States have signed the #ParisAgreement & 15 States deposited instruments of ratification
https://twitter.com/unfccc/status/723605348909723649
http://newsroom.unfccc.int/paris-agreement/175-states-sign-paris-agreement/

The list:
http://newsroom.unfccc.int/media/632121/list-of-representatives-to-high-level-signature-ceremony.pdf
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #652 on: April 23, 2016, 02:23:15 PM »
Video of the live conversation between UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon at the UN Paris Agreement signing -- and Bertrand Piccard, piloting the Solar Impulse 2 plane over the middle of the Pacific Ocean, "flying, day and night, without fuel."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #653 on: April 23, 2016, 04:21:59 PM »
China and U.S. pledge to ratify Paris climate deal this year
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UNITED NATIONS, April 22 (Reuters) - China and the United States, the world's top producers of greenhouse gas emissions, pledged on Friday to formally adopt by the end of the year a Paris deal to slow global warming, raising the prospects of it being enforced much faster than anticipated.

The United Nations said 175 states took the first step of signing the deal on Friday, the biggest day one endorsement of a global agreement. Of those, 15 states also formally notified the United Nations that they had ratified the deal.

Many countries still need a parliamentary vote to formally approve the agreement, which was reached in December. The deal will enter into force only when ratified by at least 55 nations representing 55 percent of man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

China and the United States together account for 38 percent of global emissions.

"China will finalize domestic legal procedures on its accession before the G20 Hangzhou summit in September this year," China's Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli told the U.N. signing ceremony, attended by some 55 heads of state and government.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who signed the deal with his 2-year-old granddaughter Isabelle on his lap, said the United States "looks forward to formally joining this agreement this year." President Barack Obama will formally adopt the agreement through executive authority.

The deal commits countries to restraining the global rise in temperatures to "well below" 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. But even if the pact is fully implemented, promised greenhouse gas cuts are insufficient to limit warming to an agreed maximum, the United Nations says.

The first three months of 2016 have broken temperature records and 2015 was the planet's warmest year since records began in the 19th century, with heat waves, droughts and rising sea levels.

"The era of consumption without consequences is over," U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said on Friday. "We must intensify efforts to decarbonize our economies. And we must support developing countries in making this transition."

'REASON FOR HOPE'

Many developing nations are pushing to ensure the climate deal comes into force this year, partly to lock in the United States if a Republican opponent of the pact is elected in November to succeed Obama, a Democrat.

Once the accord enters into force, a little-noted Article 28 of the agreement says any nation wanting to withdraw must wait four years, the length of a U.S. presidential term.

The deal also requires rich nations to maintain a $100 billion a year funding pledge beyond 2020, providing greater financial security to developing nations to build their defenses to extreme weather and wean themselves away from coal-fired power.
http://news.trust.org/item/20160422160252-0gki3/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #654 on: April 23, 2016, 08:07:08 PM »
The linked article discusses how the world many not be able to achieve the Paris Pact goals due to a lack of available funding:

http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/apr/22/climate-change-study-poor-countries-4tn-2030-avert-catastrophe-paris-agreement

Extract: "As Paris climate change agreement is signed in New York, developing country negotiators highlight gulf between ambition and funding.
Developing countries must raise more than $4tn (£2,456bn), or roughly the entire annual budget of the US, to implement their climate change pledges by 2030, according to new research.
But much more money will have to be found by the world’s poorest countries to hold global temperatures enough to avoid catastrophic climate change, say British and Australian researchers who have analysed the financial implications of the pledges made to the UN last December and the money so far offered by rich countries.
As 170 countries meet on Friday in New York to sign the Paris agreement and potentially set the world on a low-carbon development path from 2020, developing country negotiators called for a reality check, saying there was a vast financial gap between the world’s climate change ambition and the reality of funding the emissions reductions needed to avoid catastrophic warming."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #655 on: April 23, 2016, 09:09:57 PM »
Scientists compare climate change impacts at 1.5C and 2C

“On current emissions, the carbon budget for 1.5C will effectively be blown in about four and a half years....”

http://www.carbonbrief.org/scientists-compare-climate-change-impacts-at-1-5c-and-2c
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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #656 on: April 23, 2016, 09:23:54 PM »
Does anyone know whether Ukraine is still considered a Developed Country?
I don't mind my taxes supporting the Maldives, Hati or any number of poor (but deserving?) nations, but I might object strongly to providing a neo-nazi failed state with funds that they will certainly spend on military hardware.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #657 on: April 24, 2016, 01:30:07 PM »
Scientists compare climate change impacts at 1.5C and 2C

“On current emissions, the carbon budget for 1.5C will effectively be blown in about four and a half years....”

http://www.carbonbrief.org/scientists-compare-climate-change-impacts-at-1-5c-and-2c



just 40cm SLR by 2100 relative to 2000 under a 1.5C scenario.
average of 4mm per year and 2013 5AR thinks we are currently at 3.2mm per year (2.8 - 3.6)

25% increase in rate maybe a little more because it doesn't happen instantly. That is pretty much negligible acceleration that they think is baked in ?? ???

Perhaps they expect a little more acceleration but then with temperatures steady at 1.5C above pre-industrial the rate starts to level off, despite ice sheet instabilities?

Compared to Hansen's 3m possibly as soon 2050,

(average rate over 35 years is 27 times faster than current rate so 2050 rate may be something like a 100 fold increase over current rate)

the difference seems somewhat stark.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #658 on: April 24, 2016, 04:22:14 PM »
just 40cm SLR by 2100 relative to 2000 under a 1.5C scenario.
average of 4mm per year and 2013 5AR thinks we are currently at 3.2mm per year (2.8 - 3.6)

25% increase in rate maybe a little more because it doesn't happen instantly. That is pretty much negligible acceleration that they think is baked in ?? ???

Perhaps they expect a little more acceleration but then with temperatures steady at 1.5C above pre-industrial the rate starts to level off, despite ice sheet instabilities?

Compared to Hansen's 3m possibly as soon 2050,

(average rate over 35 years is 27 times faster than current rate so 2050 rate may be something like a 100 fold increase over current rate)

the difference seems somewhat stark.

Thanks for pointing-out some of the differences between the AR5 projections (that policymakers seem to be relying on) and reasonable dissenting positions such as those presented by Hansen et al (2016).  However, as the stakes are actually quite high (if Hansen et al 2016 are approximately correct), let me briefly add some hopefully clarifying input on the probability that researchers such as Hansen may be approximately correct:

- First, it is NOAA that indicated that sea level could rise by 3m in the 2050-2060 timeframe due to instabilities in the WAIS, based on new field observations in the austral summer of 2015-16 as indicated in the linked article (I note that historically Hansen has projected 5m of SLR by 2100, but currently he cites a range of possible values and acknowledges that there is some uncertainty in the specifics):

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2016/04/12/405089.htm

- Second, in the first attached image Gavin Schmidt provides a projection for the likely 2016 GMST anomaly (above pre-industrial) which has a mean value of approximately 1.32C, and a high end value of just under 1.5C (so we may well be closer to the limits than some people are thinking).

- Third, the rate of ice sheet meltwater contribution to sea level rise is marked accelerated by the combination of cliff failures and hydrofracting as shown in the second attached image (from Pollard et al 2015, which shows paleo-evidence that under conditions much like our own today the WAIS (alone) has contributed about 5m of sea level rise in about a century); which is driven by both EEI (Earth Energy Imbalance) and GMST (Global Mean Surface Temp) anom.

With such high stakes, it only seems rational to err on the side of precaution.
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #659 on: April 27, 2016, 01:29:03 PM »
Remaining carbon Budgets may be even smaller

Scientists compare climate change impacts at 1.5C and 2C

“On current emissions, the carbon budget for 1.5C will effectively be blown in about four and a half years....”

http://www.carbonbrief.org/scientists-compare-climate-change-impacts-at-1-5c-and-2c
Sigmetnow, I originally missed this article - thanks.

I've just redone some similar calculations (Following the Carbon Brief piece in November 2014) as a postscript to “Is green growth a fantasy?”.

Carbon Brief may have two things missing. Firstly the carbon budget should be reduced to account for greenhouse gasses other than CO2. The World Resources Institute says:

Quote
“one can argue for an even smaller budget and additional emissions constraints because non-CO2 gases are not included in 1 trillion tonne C figure. For example, short-lived greenhouse gases, such as methane, are not included in – nor necessarily appropriate for – the 1 trillion tonne C budget approach because they play a secondary role in influencing long-term warming.

However, when non-CO2 forcings are taken into account, the budget is reduced and that budget may depend on the scenario studied. For example, according to one scenario studied in the IPCC AR5 (RCP 2.6), when non-CO2 greenhouse gases are considered, the budget drops much lower to 790 PgC.”
That means that the effect of other greenhouse gasses reduces the overall budget to 79% of the original. The remaining carbon budgets are measured in terms of CO2 so, as a rough estimate they should be reduced by roughly 21%. This now gives…

The remaining carbon budget for a 66% chance of avoiding 1.5˚C becomes …

21 tonnes CO2 per person: 4 years to 1.5˚C

The remaining carbon budget for a 66% chance of avoiding 2.0˚C becomes…

85 tonnes CO2 per person: 16 years to 2.0˚C

The other issue is the "missing feedbacks" in the CMIP5 climate models, which consequently may have overestimated the budgets. I am waiting for a promised reply from DECC on this.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #660 on: April 27, 2016, 05:04:11 PM »
New York signing marks a new age in climate cooperation
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Fortunately, the Paris Agreement was drafted with increased ambition in mind and with a clear obligation to marshal our efforts to keep warming within 1.5C.

We don’t doubt the challenges to staying within that limit, but the national pledges made before Paris were never meant to be an end point, merely opening bids. The review process will ensure that governments can respond to more complete climate science, and our ever-improving technological capability to reduce emissions cost-effectively.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/04/25/new-york-signing-marks-a-new-age-in-climate-cooperation/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #661 on: April 29, 2016, 07:16:20 PM »
The linked article cites faster than expected economic growth in the Eurozone; which will almost certainly increase GHG emissions:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/29/eurozone-economy-grows-faster-than-expected-ecb

Extract: "The eurozone economy grew faster than expected in the first three months of 2016, but inflation in the single currency bloc has fallen back into negative territory, putting more pressure on the European Central Bank to keep deflation at bay."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #662 on: May 03, 2016, 05:34:59 PM »
While I concur with Joe Romm (in the linked article) that Bill Gates is wrong to oppose carbon pricing; that does not mean that we can trust Romm's, Climate Interactive's (see the attached image showing what optimistic technical assumptions they made to get to 3.5C by 2100), nor the CoP21 solutions to climate change either.  It is good to be positive, but it is counterproductive to be Pollyannaish about the truth of where we are going (we could very well be at 1.5C by the end of 2016):

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/05/02/3770561/bill-gates-wrong-carbon-tax-2/

Extract: "To paraphrase what I wrote last week, I hope readers see how absurd it is to assert that the rich countries could plausibly expect to zero out CO2 by 2050 using technologies that do not exist today. The reality of the climate challenge is that only technologies that can be deployed at trillion-dollar scale in the next three decades can contribute to such a goal. But the technology development and deployment cycle is simply far too long for a technology that doesn’t exist today to plausibly make a vital contribution to cutting CO2 by mid-century.
Indeed, Climate Interactive has put together a (very optimistic) scenario for new technology that makes this point. If we had breakthrough technology miraculously pop out of the R&D pipeline really fast (by 2020) and then miraculously enter the market at half the price of new coal plants and then miraculously achieve mass penetration decades faster than every other major energy source in history — it still has essentially no impact on emissions reduction by 2050:
BOTTOM LINE: Gates is just wrong about everything here. He is wrong that energy miracles are needed by the industrialized countries to achieve CO2 levels in 2050 consistent with beating the 2°C target. He is wrong that achieving that target requires focusing on R&D rather than deployment. He is wrong that there is some sort of consensus to that effect. He is wrong that a carbon price isn’t important in achieving the rapid reduction the rich countries need. He is wrong to make it seem like boosting energy efficiency is not as vital a strategy as reducing carbon intensity."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #663 on: May 04, 2016, 01:21:32 AM »
Koch Brothers Struggling to Block Climate Action in State Legislatures
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Of the 50 state bills introduced this year to obstruct the CPP, 56% already have died. Another 34% of those bills are languishing and we expect most of them to expire when state legislatures adjourn. Polluter interests lost ground in West Virginia, whose legislature passed a bill that improves its ability to act on the Clean Power Plan. The Koch brothers did score a recent victory in their home state of Kansas to stop the state’s work on the CPP, but it’s not a huge loss because the state had already suspended the process anyway. Additionally, the wind industry in Kansas still plans to expand generation despite Clean Power Plan setbacks, because the state has incredible wind energy resources.

The Clean Power Plan is on a solid legal foundation, and is likely to be upheld. The stay issued by the Supreme Court only hits the pause button on CPP implementation deadlines, and has no bearing on the legal merits of the case. Many governors want to use this extra time wisely to develop the best possible pathway to reduce carbon pollution, so they can hit the ground running when the CPP deadlines are reinstated. Governors generally want to preserve the freedom and flexibility to act in the best interests of their state and these polluter-linked state legislative maneuvers would undermine those best interests. The legislative schemes range from requiring excessive legislative approval for a governor’s plan to EPA, to mandating a work stoppage for CPP planning.
https://www.nrdc.org/experts/aliya-haq/koch-brothers-struggling-block-climate-action-state-legislatures
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #664 on: May 05, 2016, 05:16:40 PM »
The linked article warns that the election of Donald Trump as president of the USA would be a set-back for the CoP21 pact:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/04/donald-trumps-election-will-derail-paris-climate-deal-warns-its-architect

Extract: "Without naming Trump, the former French foreign minister Laurent Fabius told an audience in London: “Think about the impact of the coming US presidential elections. If a climate change denier was to be elected, it would threaten dramatically global action against climate disruption.”

He said: “We must not think that everything is settled.”

In response to a speech by Barack Obama at the opening of the Paris climate summit, Trump said: “I think one of the dumbest statements I’ve ever heard in politics, in the history of politics as I know it, which is pretty good, was Obama’s statement that our No 1 problem is global warming.”"
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #665 on: May 08, 2016, 04:57:25 PM »
The former head of the IPCC says that we should prepare for the worst:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/governments-should-study-worst-case-warming-20325

Extract: "Nations should be considering the potential impact of temperature rises of as much as 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 Fahrenheit), said Robert Watson, former head of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #666 on: May 08, 2016, 07:49:40 PM »
Hillary Clinton Plans To Have A 'Climate Map Room' In The White House, Podesta Says
Quote
If she’s elected president, Hillary Clinton intends to equip the White House with a situation room just for climate change, inspired by the Map Room where Franklin D. Roosevelt managed World War II, her campaign chairman, former White House Chief of Staff John Podesta, said Friday.

Podesta was one of nine veterans of seven previous administrations who spoke Friday at a Stanford University conference on “Setting the Climate Agenda for the Next U.S. President.” He cited a technologically sophisticated Climate Map Room as an example of planning for resilience—the capacity of the country to withstand and adapt to climate-change effects.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2016/05/08/hillary-clinton-plans-a-climate-map-room-in-the-white-house-podesta/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #667 on: May 08, 2016, 09:17:02 PM »
Rich countries have pledged billions in climate aid. Why has progress been so slow?
Quote
When the world’s poor countries demanded action during the failing United Nations–led climate negotiations in Copenhagen in 2009, the US government responded with a promise: It would help raise $100 billion a year by 2020 to assist efforts to cope with climate change in the global south.

Out of that commitment has slowly grown a peculiar but potentially important institution known as the Green Climate Fund. The fund has nowhere near $100 billion to spend, but, if all goes according to plan, it will deliver significant aid to impoverished nations that are threatened by a warming planet.

The idea behind the fund is simple: The world’s rich nations, led by the US and Europe, are responsible for most of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change, but the burdens of a warming planet fall most heavily on poor countries. Consequently, the fund takes from the rich and give to the poor — like Robin Hood, but with the legal and political backing of the UN.

The GCF intends to support clean energy, low-carbon cities, low-emission agriculture, forestry and climate adaptation. Tunisian economist Héla Cheikhrouhou, the fund’s first executive director, has said that its goal is nothing less than to help poor countries overcome "the twin threats of climate change and poverty."

What by no means is clear is whether the GCF can achieve those goals — or even how the fund, with its unwieldy governance structure, will answer a series of fundamental questions about how it intends to do business. That’s where things get complicated — and contentious. Should the fund make grants, low-interest loans, market-rate loans or equity investments? Should the money go to governments, businesses or nonprofits? Should the fund support efforts to clean up fossil fuels, in particular capture and sequester carbon dioxide from coal plants?
http://www.vox.com/2016/5/8/11600940/green-climate-fund
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #668 on: May 09, 2016, 08:23:30 PM »
How would phasing out U.S. federal leases for fossil fuel extraction affect CO2 emissions and 2°C goals?
Quote
This paper examines the implications for U.S. fossil fuel production and global CO2 emissions of ceasing to issue new federal leases for fossil fuel extraction and not renewing existing leases for resources that are not yet producing.

Avoiding dangerous climate change will require a rapid transition away from fossil fuels. By some estimates, a phase out of global fossil fuel consumption and production – particularly coal and oil – will need to be nearly complete within 50 years. Given the scale of such a transition, nations may need to consider a broad suite of policy approaches that aim not only to reduce fossil fuel demand – the current focus – but also constrain fossil fuel supply growth.

This paper examines the potential emissions implications of a supply-side measure under consideration in the U.S.: ceasing to issue new leases for fossil fuel extraction on federal lands and waters, and avoiding renewals of existing leases for resources that are not yet producing. The analysis finds that under such a policy, U.S. coal production would steadily decline, moving closer to a pathway consistent with a global 2°C temperature limit. Oil and gas extraction would drop as well, but more gradually, as federal lands and waters represent a smaller fraction of national production, and these resources take longer to develop.

Phasing out federal leases for fossil fuel extraction could reduce global CO2 emissions by 100 million tonnes per year by 2030, and by greater amounts thereafter. The emissions impact would be comparable to that of other major climate policies under consideration by the Obama administration. These findings suggest that policy-makers should give greater attention to measures that slow the expansion of fossil fuel supplies
https://www.sei-international.org/publications?pid=2937
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #669 on: May 12, 2016, 06:57:45 PM »
What the world needs now for climate action: Specifics, direction and scale
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Climate negotiators will have to give substance to important elements of the new global deal on climate change if they want to deliver on their promise to try to keep warming under 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures. The meeting in Bonn, Germany is the first opportunity for governments to add content to key elements of the climate agreement since its adoption in Paris last year.
 
This first formal meeting after the Paris agreement is where governments must demonstrate they will deliver on the promises made, says Samantha Smith, leader of WWF’s Global Climate and Energy Initiative.
 
“The Paris Agreement commits countries to their best efforts to keep warming under 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial times. 1.5° Celsius of warming is the line in the sand for many vulnerable countries, communities and ecosystems. To fulfil this commitment countries urgently need to increase their national efforts to cut emissions, particularly through scaling up renewable energy, getting rid of dirty fossil fuels, protecting forests and delivering climate finance,” says Smith.
 
Current national commitments put us on a path to a global temperature rise of at least 3°Celsius, unless we increase climate action, including, but not limited to, conserving forests and reducing emissions from land use.
http://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/?267390/What-the-world-needs-now-for-climate-action-Specifics-direction-scale
« Last Edit: May 12, 2016, 07:03:05 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #670 on: May 12, 2016, 08:13:18 PM »
BREAKING: EPA Finalizes Methane Rule For New Oil And Gas Operations
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The Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday issued its final rule for methane emissions from the oil and gas industry.

The rule limits methane emissions from new oil and gas infrastructure and requires operators to submit to semi-annual or quarterly monitoring, depending on the type of operation. In addition, the agency took another step toward drafting a rule that would apply to existing oil and gas operations.

“They will help keep the nation on track to help the us cut emissions from the oil and gas sector,” EPA administrator Gina McCarthy said on a call with reporters Thursday. The new rule will reduce emissions by 11 million tons per year of CO2 equivalent by 2025, she said.

The Obama administration has a goal of reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas sector by 40 to 45 percent from 2012 levels by 2025. Natural gas is 80 percent methane, while oil extraction processes also often release methane trapped underground. In 2012, 30 percent of the country’s methane emissions came from oil and gas operations.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/05/12/3777605/methane-rule-finalized/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #671 on: May 15, 2016, 04:18:20 PM »
The US Energy Information Administration, EIA, recently issued a report that indicates that even with the Paris Pact in place fossil fuels are likely to dominate our energy use through 2040 (see image):

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/global-2040-forecast-slight-fall-fossil-fuels-20340

Extract: "Despite the urgency to cut greenhouse gas emissions as climate change bears down on the globe, fossil fuel use is not likely to change much in the coming decades. Though renewable energy will grow quickly though 2040, gasoline and diesel will still move most of the world’s vehicles, and coal will still be the largest single source of carbon emissions.
Those are the conclusions of a forecast released by the federal government on Wednesday for how the world will use energy and what its carbon dioxide emissions will be over the next 25 years."
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sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #672 on: May 15, 2016, 08:04:37 PM »
the EIA is a great source of historical statistics. Unfortunately EIA forecasts are lousy.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #673 on: May 16, 2016, 04:21:07 AM »
The linked article discusses how satellite observations indicate that both methane and carbon dioxide atmospheric concentrations are continuing to increase despite global efforts to reduce emissions.  Particularly, the upcoming Sentinel -5P observations will be critical to verify whether progress is actually going to be achieved for controlling methane emissions (such as advertised by the Paris Pact):

http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/Methane_and_carbon_dioxide_on_the_rise

Extract: "Satellite readings show that atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide are continuing to increase despite global efforts to reduce emissions.

The upcoming Sentinel-5P mission for Europe’s Copernicus programme is set to continue data collection on methane and other components of atmospheric chemistry by scanning the whole globe every day.
“For the future, Sentinel-5P will be very important, in particular because of its very dense, high-resolution observations of atmospheric methane, which have the potential to detect and quantify the emissions of important methane emission hot spots such as oil and gas fields,” noted Michael Buchwitz, who also leads the Greenhouse Gases project under ESA’s Climate Change Initiative."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #674 on: May 16, 2016, 01:53:38 PM »
the EIA is a great source of historical statistics. Unfortunately Fortunately EIA forecasts are lousy.

Fixed that for you.   ;D
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #675 on: May 16, 2016, 04:50:38 PM »
Per the linked article, Oxfam has reported that the Paris Pact fails to provide adequate financing to poor countries to adequately address climate change:

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/paris-climate-agreement-report-oxfam-a7030446.html
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #676 on: May 16, 2016, 04:51:40 PM »
the EIA is a great source of historical statistics. Unfortunately Fortunately EIA forecasts are lousy.

Fixed that for you.   ;D

I do not know that it is a good idea to count your chickens before they hatch ;)
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #677 on: May 16, 2016, 06:15:20 PM »
The linked article discusses the "negative emissions" game that scientists and policy makers are playing.  This is a very dangerous game to be playing:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/10-ways-neg-emissions-slow-climate-change.html

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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #678 on: May 17, 2016, 04:40:22 PM »
The linked article indicates that (without magic bullets) the need for agriculture to feed an increasing world population will prevent the Paris Pact from achieving its goals:

Wollenberg, E., Richards, M., Smith, P., Havlík, P., Obersteiner, M., Tubiello, F.N., Herold, M., Gerber, P., Carter, S., Reisinger, A., van Vuuren, D., Dickie, A., Neufeldt, H., Sander, B.O., Wassmann, R., Sommer, R., Amonette, J.E., Falcucci, A., Herrero, M., Opio, C., Roman-Cuesta, R., Stehfest, E., Westhoek, H., Ortiz-Monasterio, I., Sapkota, T., Rufino, M.C., Thornton, P.K., Verchot, L., West, P.C., Soussana, J.-F., Baedeker, T., Sadler, M., Vermeulen, S. and Campbell, B.M. (2016), "Reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the 2°C target", Global Change Biology, doi:10.1111/gcb.13340

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13340/abstract

Abstract: "More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Richards et al., 2015a) in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector versus how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO2e/yr by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation co-benefits deliver only 21 to 40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, such as methane inhibitors and finance for new practices. A more comprehensive target for the 2°C limit should be developed to include soil carbon and agriculture-related mitigation options. Excluding agricultural emissions from mitigation targets and plans will increase the cost of mitigation in other sectors or reduce the feasibility of meeting the 2°C limit."
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #679 on: May 17, 2016, 06:52:38 PM »
the EIA is a great source of historical statistics. Unfortunately Fortunately EIA forecasts are lousy.

Fixed that for you.   ;D

I do not know that it is a good idea to count your chickens before they hatch ;)

Particularly with human behavior.  Sooooo unpredictable.  :)

How many Model 3 orders did you expect?
Elon Musk: Maybe 1/4 to 1/2 of what happened. No one at Tesla thought it would be this high before part 2 of the unveil.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/716344348107878401

Demand for the company’s new energy storage products is “really crazy,” with firm orders “well in excess of a billion dollars’ worth of Powerpacks and Powerwalls…we are sold out of what we could make in 2016 at this point.”
"And that's with no marketing, no advertising, no sales force to speak of really. Not trying to sell it.....
- Elon Musk, Tesla 2Q 2015 earnings report conference call
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #680 on: May 17, 2016, 09:04:29 PM »
New England scrambles to find clean energy to replace aging nuclear plants.

“Action is needed on existing policies . . . to further diversify our energy portfolio and meet the goals set forth in the Global Warming Solutions Act.”
http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2016/05/15/carbon-emissions-rising-new-england-power-plants/9WfbtQMJEMBszzxPzf2OLO/story.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #681 on: May 18, 2016, 01:48:04 AM »
Court showdown over Obama's Clean Power Plan delayed until the fall
Quote
But by delaying the hearing, the court could also speed up the entire litigation process, since it precludes any parties from appealing a ruling to the court’s full panel of judges.
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/280080-climate-rule-case-postponed-3-months


Everything You Need To Know About Why The DC Circuit Delayed Arguments On Obama’s Climate Plan
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/05/17/3778827/cpp-oral-arguments-punted/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #682 on: May 18, 2016, 03:31:41 AM »

Per the linked article, if elected Donald Trump says that he would renegotiate America's role in the Paris Pact:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-climate-exclusive-idUSKCN0Y82NW

Extract: "Republican presidential contender Donald Trump said on Tuesday he would renegotiate America’s role in the U.N. global climate accord, spelling potential doom for an agreement many view as a last chance to turn the tide on global warming.

A pull-out by the world’s second biggest carbon-emitting country would hobble the deal reached in Paris last December by nearly 200 nations, who for the first time in more than two decades found a common vision for curbing greenhouse gas emissions."
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #683 on: May 18, 2016, 03:48:10 AM »
Negotiators Try to Figure Out What the Paris Climate Agreement Means
Quote
Climate negotiators from around the world met yesterday for the first time since brokering the Paris climate deal to start filling in some of the gaps left in that landmark agreement.

The midyear U.N. meeting in Bonn, Germany, was much lower-profile than the confab on the outskirts of the French capital in December. And the agenda was more mundane.
...
More than 175 countries have endorsed the Paris deal since it opened for signature last month in New York. But its goals rest on more than 60 unmet decisions on issues like emissions reporting, how national and collective progress will be assessed, and other “homework” items Bonn will begin to turn in.
...
Besides working to facilitate early entry into force for the Paris deal—which takes effect when 55 countries totaling at least 55 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions have joined—the presidents called for parties to “respect the balance that was found and to continue working together so as to strengthen action, support and ambition.”
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/negotiators-try-to-figure-out-what-the-paris-climate-agreement-means/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #684 on: May 19, 2016, 12:05:16 AM »
Ignore the latest Trump bluster.  That's what the negotiators in Bonn are doing.   :)

Trump threat falls on deaf ears at UN climate talks
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/05/18/trump-threat-falls-on-deaf-ears-at-un-climate-talks/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #685 on: May 23, 2016, 01:02:32 PM »
Trump cannot derail global climate deal
Quote
Donald Trump’s statement that he would want to renegotiate the Paris Agreement on climate change if he is elected US president is “meaningless”, one seasoned British climate expert says.

“Donald Trump doesn’t appear to know much about anything except headlines”, Tom Burke told the Climate News Network. “He knows less than most of the political leaders I’ve dealt with in the last 40 years. This is meaningless posturing.”
...
“This is a vacuous piece of posturing, a message to his potential supporters on the political right”, he said. “If the media interrogated Trump rigorously, people would recognise him as a soap bubble.

“Who would he renegotiate the Agreement with? He can’t renegotiate on his own, and the rest of the world is moving on.”
http://climatenewsnetwork.net/trump-cannot-derail-global-climate-deal/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #686 on: May 27, 2016, 01:07:43 AM »
This Is Why We Can’t Have Nice Things: U.S. Energy Bill Now Full Of Horrible Environmental Provisions
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/05/26/3782311/enviros-frown-on-house-energy-bill/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #687 on: May 28, 2016, 03:26:08 AM »
Giving themselves almost ten years to beat back the fossil fuels lobby (and re-educate Republicans in the U.S.).   :-\


G7 nations pledge to end fossil fuel subsidies by 2025
Quote
The G7 nations have for the first time set a deadline for the ending most fossil fuel subsidies, saying government support for coal, oil and gas should end by 2025.

The leaders of the UK, US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the European Union encouraged all countries to join them in eliminating “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” within a decade.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/27/g7-nations-pledge-to-end-fossil-fuel-subsidies-by-2025
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ghoti

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #688 on: May 29, 2016, 06:26:37 PM »
Setting a deadline so far in the future is effectively saying we won't cut subsidies. None of these leaders will be in office then so they are clearing showing they have no desire to act. They'll let the next leader deal with it.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #689 on: June 04, 2016, 04:27:51 PM »
The U.S. government should buy coal plants, shut them down and pay to retrain their employees
Quote
There is another alternative — which I’ll call Plan A — that would avoid the considerable litigation risks of the Clean Power Plan and achieve more quickly and with greater certainty a reduction in emissions at least equal to those of the Clean Power initiative. Under Plan A, the federal government would buy or, if necessary, seize under eminent domain all existing U.S. coal plants and close them over 10 years. Such a use of federal authority is well-established and would not be subject to serious legal challenge. (Plant owners could dispute the amount of compensation offered but not the public purpose of federal action intended to protect the environment.) Plan A would include fair, market-based compensation for coal-plant shareholders and generous severance, relocation and job-training programs for employees, who should not be asked to bear the burdens of emissions reductions. Once authorized by Congress, Plan A could be carried out before the legality of the Clean Power Plan was finally adjudicated and long before it could be implemented. Moreover, since Plan A would set a firm deadline for coal plants to close, it would provide a strong incentive for wind, solar and other renewables to replace the lost coal capacity at rates that are already competitive with coal.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-federal-government-should-buy-coal-plants-shut-them-down-and-pay-to-retrain-their-employees/2016/06/03/eb08ebf4-0bdd-11e6-8ab8-9ad050f76d7d_story.html
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #690 on: June 04, 2016, 10:24:41 PM »
The linked reference indicates that what constitutes the best accounting procedure for short-live climate pollutants (like methane and black carbon) depends on what radiative forcing pathway we follow; which depends on how well the Paris Pact is implemented:

Myles R. Allen, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Keith P. Shine, Andy Reisinger, Raymond T. Pierrehumbert & Piers M. Forster (2016), "New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2998

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2998.html

Abstract: "Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of ‘cumulative climate pollutants’ such as carbon dioxide versus ‘short-lived climate pollutants’ (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20–40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century, which may be necessary to limit warming to “well below 2 °C”. The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately."

See also:
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/scientists-seek-new-measure-for-methane-20413


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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #691 on: June 05, 2016, 09:20:21 PM »
(Still needs a companion bill to be passed by the state senate.)

New York Assembly Approves Climate Bill That Would Cut Emissions to Zero
The bill, endorsed by a broad coalition, is also notable for its emphasis on environmental and economic justice, advocates say.
Quote
The New York State Assembly approved the nation's most ambitious climate change bill Wednesday. The vote came hours after a broad coalition of environmental justice, climate activist, conservation and labor groups took to the State Capitol in Albany urging lawmakers to swiftly pass the bill before the legislative session ends on June 16.

The legislation requires the state to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from major sources to zero by 2050. That would demand a near total decarbonization of its economy, and it would put New York among the world's leaders on forceful climate action. To achieve it, the bill gives the state until 2030 to get at least 50 percent of its electricity from clean energy.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/01062016/new-york-climate-change-legislation-zero-emissions-2050
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #692 on: June 06, 2016, 01:48:15 PM »
How Obama Is ‘Trump-Proofing’ His Climate Pact
Quote
“It’s not policy—ultimately it’s about markets,” says Ethan Zindler, an analyst with Bloomberg New Energy Finance. He argues that the United States will achieve the target even without Obama’s Clean Power Plan because gas is cheap and is expected to stay that way, because renewables have gotten much cheaper—and will continue to drop in price—and the renewable energy tax credits that Congress just passed are now on the books for the next five years.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/06/obama-trump-climate-change-213942
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timallard

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #693 on: June 06, 2016, 03:40:54 PM »
Consider emissions matter not right now as a priority, a heresy to state.

It's based on a realization of the geologic context everyone is aware of, that is we're now in a paleontological "excursion" caused by a large carbon "perturbation" the effects of which last 200,000-years start-to-finish.

We obviously need to zero emissions asap yet after we do so nothing happens, this is proof we exited normal climatic controls by storing too much too fast into the oceans and atmosphere, a 10-petagram bomb last year alone.

Try to consider the volcanic equivalent, to heat the planet during the PETM took ~50,000-years before the oceans went anoxic and HS was produced to cause the mass-extinction; we put up more carbon already.

So, CO2 remains the same for a couple of centuries after emissions drop while excess oceanic CO2 out-gasses and the heating, wherever it stopped at most think 4-5C continues at that level for many thousands of years then slowly drops.

That's "where we are", so Paris while nice is meaningless to actually stop anything that's going to happen, legally binding or not it's too little by many orders of magnitude.

My take is that saving what sea-ice is left needs to be the global priority right now, (albedo-loss heat-gain) = (20-years of CO2 heat-gain) = (0.21-watts/m²), it's a direct heating, it's more efficient than trapping LWIR.

Then add in that we're gaining 3-ppm/year and the big jump at the end of the ice-age was 1-ppm/180-years for context.

The rule is if you bomb this planet with enough CO2 it does its own thing, that's called an excursion, we caused one and now must live out the consequences, the rich are insane, they blew a chance we had in the late 70's when passive-solar homes were built & panels mfg began in earnest.

At that time CO2 was ~335-ppm, only 10-ppm above the maximum reached in the Pleistocene so still within "natural variation" and sea-level commitment only 10-15m at 405-ppm we're committed to 25m/82ft of sea-level rise.

Now the dream is to piddle around with the evil eye on cashing out fossil investments, Paris is a trap, a delay, it means nothing to slowing down what's going on, the priority right now should be retaining what sea-ice exists.

The only ships using the Arctic Ocean are shipping fuels, then, aircraft and shipping afaik were NOT regulated in Paris, they are needed to keep moving fossil fuels around, proving the intent of the agreement behind closed doors.

My question is, did Paris include consideration of albedo-loss accelerating, with estimates of this direct heating?
-tom

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #694 on: June 07, 2016, 12:18:00 PM »
Modi’s visit to Washington holds the promise of action against climate change
This is the fourth time India's Modi is coming to the U.S. as prime minister
Quote
India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi hopes to talk about climate-change, a clean-energy partnership, and security and defense cooperation during his short trip to the U.S. He'll also be addressing a joint meeting of Congress on Wednesday.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/06/modis-visit-to-washington-could-set-a-new-tone-on-fighting-global-climate-change/
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #695 on: June 08, 2016, 01:33:55 PM »
The United States and India Are Partnering on a Slate of Clean Energy Initiatives
Quote
[June 7], the White House announced a series of joint initiatives between the United States and India to advance clean energy in the world’s second-most populous country.

- A $20 million initiative to attract private-sector investment to bring clean energy to as many as 1 million Indian homes by 2020.

- A $40 million program that will draw up to $1 billion in private sector funding for small-scale renewable energy projects.

- $30 million for research into smart grids and grid storage.

- In September, the United States and India will launch a program focused on off-grid solar energy.
The two countries will establish a clean-energy hub to spur renewable-energy investment in India.

- The United States and India will increase financial assistance for developing countries to limit emissions of hydrofluorocarbons — highly potent greenhouse gasses used in air conditioners and refrigerators.
https://nexusmedianews.com/u-s-working-with-india-on-mammoth-nuclear-power-plant-a478e8bd32be
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #696 on: June 08, 2016, 05:42:20 PM »
Per the following article the EPA is likely under-reporting methane leakage in the USA.  Will the Paris Pact put a stop to such under-reporting, or just look the other way?

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-methane-leaks-20160607-snap-story.html

Extract: "An environmental organization filed a federal complaint Wednesday, alleging that key reports by a top U.S. Environmental Protection Agency official wrongfully stated the severity of methane leaks across the nation’s natural gas industry.

In its 68-page complaint to the EPA’s Office of Inspector General, NC Warn, a 28-year-old climate and energy justice organization based in North Carolina, alleges that David Allen, a university faculty member who was head of the EPA’s Science Advisory Board at the time of the reports, should have corrected studies about methane leaks after the equipment used for the reports was proved faulty. Allen is on the faculty of the University of Texas at Austin, according to the complaint."
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12Patrick

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #697 on: June 08, 2016, 09:10:01 PM »
ALL climate treaties are to slow thus far to prevent Summertime Arctic Ice melt out... AKA "Blue Ocean Event"...

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #698 on: June 10, 2016, 01:42:24 AM »
U.S.:  Harvard Study Finds $38 Billion Economic Benefit From EPA’s Clean Power Plan
Quote
When the Environmental Protection Agency published a rule to reduce carbon emissions from power plants last year, critics quickly said the plan was too economically costly for businesses and home electricity bills. But now, a new study led by researchers from Harvard University finds that nearly all regions of the U.S. stand to gain economically from a power plant carbon standard like the Clean Power Plan, and do so fairly quickly.

Using a scenario that somewhat resembles the Clean Power Plan (CPP) — a policy moderately stringent and highly flexible — researchers calculated net benefits of some $38 billion a year, according to the study published Wednesday in the online journal PLOS ONE.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/06/09/3786018/power-plant-carbon-standard-brings-economic-benefits/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« Reply #699 on: June 11, 2016, 07:42:09 PM »
Will provisions in the proposed new Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), severely undermine the Paris Pact?


http://www.commondreams.org/news/2016/06/06/free-trade-will-kill-climate-movement-hundreds-groups-warn-congress

Extract: "Warning against dangers to "workers, communities, and our environment," more than 450 environmental advocacy groups called on Congress to reject the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).

Specifically warning against the Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) provisions, which allow multinational corporations sue nations in private, clandestine tribunals for passing laws they don't like, the groups sent a letter on Monday that stated: "We strongly urge you to stand up for healthy communities, clean air and water, Indigenous peoples, property rights, and a stable climate by committing to vote no on the TPP and asking the U.S. Trade Representative to remove from TTIP any provision that empowers corporations to challenge government policies in extrajudicial tribunals.

President Obama is hoping to have the TPP ratified before he leaves office on January 20, 2017, and Reuters reports that Congress is expected to vote on it after the election in November."
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