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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1450 on: May 17, 2018, 07:22:09 AM »
Unfortunately, Kevin Anderson is optimistic. He does not take into account continued increases in CH4 emissions (together with their very high GWP20 number - 100 times greater than CO2), nor reducing Arctic albedo, nor increases in natural emissions, nor a host of other feedbacks. There already is no carbon budget, and Hansen is right about 350ppm.

That he is seen as a "radical realist" by some shows the level of denial that our elites are in. As we get more and more temperature surprises (and perhaps an Arctic BOE) during the next decade or so we will slowly move toward the geo-engineering route, plus grudging acceptances of increased rates of reduction in emissions. The day that I stop seeing natural gas mentioned as a "bridge fuel" I may feel that some level of reality has entered the brains of the elites.
?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1451 on: May 17, 2018, 01:18:07 PM »
Logjam for Paris climate "rule book" as end-2018 deadline looms
Quote
An extra session will be held in Bangkok in September to push forward on guidelines for how the Paris pact will be implemented

* Finance, overshadows climate talks on rules for Paris accord

* New meeting set for Bangkok before end-year deadline

* Graphic at: https://tmsnrt.rs/2fTjA1w

BONN, Germany, May 10 (Reuters) - Governments made slow progress on a "rule book" for a global climate accord after two weeks of talks ending on Thursday and agreed to a new round of negotiations to break a diplomatic logjam before a year-end deadline for a deal.

Disputes among the senior climate officials from about 180 nations in Bonn included how rich nations will raise finance to a pledged $100 billion a year by 2020 to help developing nations cope with rising temperatures and cut their emissions.

"We can't say failure. But overall we've been having slow progress," Gebru Jember Endalew, chair of the group of least developed countries, told Reuters. Poor nations are most vulnerable to more droughts, floods and rising sea levels. ...
http://news.trust.org/item/20180510170429-nbxs8
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1452 on: May 21, 2018, 04:05:20 AM »
The Conversation asks interesting questions about whether the UN Security Council will take climate change seriously soon enough to meet the IPCC's Paris Agreement goals.  In other words, does the UN take the warnings of its own climate scientists seriously?

Title: "Climate change is a security threat – so where is the UN Security Council?"

https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-a-security-threat-so-where-is-the-un-security-council-96658

Extract: "Climate change is one of the great security challenges of the 21st century. As the world warms, conflicts over water, food or energy will become more common and many people will be forced from their homes. Scientists, think-tanks, NGOs, militaries and even the White House (albeit under President Obama) all agree that climate change threatens human safety and well-being. Yet the organisation charged with global security has remained relatively silent."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1454 on: May 30, 2018, 04:23:58 PM »
It looks like underreporting of carbon emissions from global meat and fish production means that the Paris goals are in jeopardy:

Title: "Meat and fish multinationals 'jeopardising Paris climate goals'"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/30/meat-and-fish-protein-multinationals-jeopardising-paris-climate-goals

Extract: "New index finds many of the world’s largest protein producers failing to measure or report emissions, despite accounting for 14.5% of greenhouse gases"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1455 on: May 31, 2018, 05:30:31 PM »
How much fugitive methane gas emissions are we not accounting for?

Title: "Arctic Methane Leaks Go Undetected Because Equipment Can’t Handle the Cold"

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/31052018/arctic-oil-gas-methane-leak-detection-technology-reliability-problems-alaska-climate-change

Extract: "While the Trump administration's attempt to overturn Obama's methane rules is facing legal challenges on several fronts, the EPA issued two narrow amendments to the Fugitive Emissions Requirements of the rules.

One amendment got rid of a requirement that leaks had to be repaired during emergency shutdowns. Instead, they can now be repaired during the next planned shutdown or within two years, whichever is earlier.

And on the North Slope, another amendment gives operators more time to conduct inspections to new or modified wells, so if a well is drilled in winter, instead of having to inspect it within 60 days, operators now have six months.

In the United States, the amendments to the methane rules are raising suspicion among some environmentalists. "Our concern is: What's the real intention behind the rule change?" said David Lyon, a scientist at the Environmental Defense Fund. "Was it a minor technical tweak to address a legitimate issue? Or was it a tactic to start chipping away at the rule, piece by piece?"

He also questioned the knowledge gap on the North Slope and in other cold climates as methane leaks go undetected in the winter. Without functioning cameras, operators are left with audio and visual inspections as the best tool for detection. "They've shown that audio-visual inspections do not work," he said. "That's not a good alternative to finding the leaks.""
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1456 on: June 01, 2018, 07:21:19 AM »
Crosspost.
Compared to the SDG's and the Paris agreement...  ::)
Only 4 out of 38 clean-energy technologies are on track to meet long-term climate goals.
https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/may/iea-releases-new-and-updated-online-resource-to-assess-global-clean-energy-transi.html
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1457 on: June 01, 2018, 12:47:34 PM »
Crosspost.
Compared to the SDG's and the Paris agreement...  ::)
Only 4 out of 38 clean-energy technologies are on track to meet long-term climate goals.


That is 4 more than I expected.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1458 on: June 01, 2018, 01:40:55 PM »
Yeah, it is a positive take on this.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1459 on: June 01, 2018, 04:00:12 PM »
Quote
. In particular, unabated coal electricity generation (meaning generation without Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage, or CCUS), which is responsible for 72% of power sector emissions, rebounded in 2017 after falling over the last three years.

Meanwhile, two technologies, onshore wind and energy storage, were downgraded this year, as their progress slowed.

Rebounded one year.  One should expect noise during transitions.  A colder winter, a spike in gas prices - this sort of stuff can move a single year of coal consumption.  It's impossible to say that coal is or is not on track based on a single data point.  Here's the background on at least some of the uptick -

Quote
BEIJING, Feb 28 (Reuters) - China’s coal consumption last year picked up for the first time since 2013, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday, despite Beijing’s push to promote less-polluting energy sources.

The world’s biggest coal consumer used 0.4 percent more coal in absolute terms in 2017 compared to a year ago, the bureau said in its annual National Social and Economic Development communique, without giving the value of total coal consumption.

However, as a portion of total energy consumption, coal usage fell 1.6 percentage points to 60.4 percent last year, while clean energy, including natural gas and renewables, rose 1.3 percentage points to 20.8 percent from 2016, the communique showed.

That indicates the country remains on track to fulfil its promise to decarbonise its economy and reduce air pollution, as it vowed to cut the coal portion to below 58 percent of total energy consumption by 2020.

Carbon intensity, the level of carbon emissions per unit of economic growth, dropped by 5.1 percent in 2017 compared to a year ago. Total energy consumption rose by 2.9 percent to 4.49 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent which is still below the target of 5 billion tonnes by 2020.

“The slight increase in China’s coal demand thankfully does little to change the overall trend of declining demand in coal’s largest market,” said Harri Lammi, global coal campaigner at environmental group Greenpeace.

“It continues on the path away from reliance on the world’s dirtiest fossil fuel as the energy structure transitions and renewable energy installations soar.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-energy-coal/corrected-chinas-2017-coal-consumption-rose-after-three-year-decline-clean-energy-portion-up-idUSL4N1QI48M

Onshore wind has slowed in some European countries because they are moving their wind turbines offshore. 

There's no general need for energy storage at this point in time.  As far as I know no grid is significantly curtailing wind or solar.  Until that happens there is nothing to store.  However using storage for grid smoothing is taking off like a rocket after the success of Tesla's large battery installation in Australia.

Here's what Source Watch has to say about the IEA -

Quote
The IEA has systematically underestimated the potential of renewable energy sources like wind and solar, "because of its ties to the oil, gas and nuclear sectors," Energy Watch, a group of scientists and politicians, charged in a January 2009 report (pdf). Swiss parliamentarian and Energy Watch member Rudolf Rechsteiner said that IEA was "delaying the change to a renewable world. They continue touting nuclear and carbon-capture-and-storage, classical central solutions, instead of a more neutral approach, which would favour new solutions." [4]

The Energy Watch report documented that IEA has dramatically underestimated wind power capacity over the past decade. IEA's 2008 World Energy Outlook "predicts a fivefold increase in wind energy from 2006-2015, but then assumes a rapid slowdown" without explaining why "the wind sector should suffer such a crisis by 2015 and after." IEA, which refused to comment on the report, draws "senior staff from the fossil-fuel industry." [4]

I wouldn't go running around in circles crying that the sky is falling based on this paper.


AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1460 on: June 01, 2018, 06:11:40 PM »
I provide the link to an article on negative emissions technology, for optimists for the success of Paris (I note that I am not one of the optimists for Paris meeting its goals):

Title: "Guest post: Seven key things to know about ‘negative emissions’"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-seven-key-things-to-know-about-negative-emissions

Extract: "Despite the ambitious long-term climate goals of the Paris Agreement, there remains a distinct lack of success at ushering in immediate and sustained reductions in global CO2 emissions.

This cognitive dissonance has seen the topic of “negative emissions” – also known as “carbon dioxide removal” (CDR) – move into the limelight in climate science and policy discussions."
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1461 on: June 02, 2018, 08:16:40 AM »
Thanks ASLR. Wonderful post, as usual.

Without anything better to add, I'll simply add a couple of screenshots from Dennis Meadows presentation in/from #WeDon'tHaveTime. The common idea & his bathtub analogy.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1462 on: June 04, 2018, 11:41:17 AM »
More with Kevin... Hopefully viewable elsewhere as well:
https://urplay.se/program/205843-ur-samtiden-baltic-sea-future-stabilitet-eller-kaos-vagval-for-klimatet
Also adding four screenshots.
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Human Habitat Index

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1463 on: June 04, 2018, 12:19:09 PM »
Because of inertia the future is baked in.

In any case, the chance for meaningful change seems remote.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1464 on: June 07, 2018, 11:42:23 PM »
The linked reference presents improved methodology for measuring the true climate impacts of short-lived climate pollutants (like methane):

Allen, M. R. et al. (2018), "A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation", Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0026-8

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0026-8

Abstract: "While cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions dominate anthropogenic warming over centuries, temperatures over the coming decades are also strongly affected by short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), complicating the estimation of cumulative emission budgets for ambitious mitigation goals. Using conventional Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to convert SLCPs to “CO2-equivalent” emissions misrepresents their impact on global temperature. Here we show that peak warming under a range of mitigation scenarios is determined by a linear combination of cumulative CO2 emissions to the time of peak warming and non-CO2 radiative forcing immediately prior to that time. This may be understood by expressing aggregate non-CO2 forcing as cumulative CO2 forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions. We show further that contributions to CO2-fe emissions are well approximated by a new usage of GWP, denoted GWP*, which relates cumulative CO2 emissions to date with the current rate of emission of SLCPs. GWP* accurately indicates the impact of emissions of both long-lived and short-lived pollutants on radiative forcing and temperatures over a wide range of timescales, including under ambitious mitigation when conventional GWPs fail. Measured by GWP*, implementing the Paris Agreement would reduce the expected rate of warming in 2030 by 28% relative to a No Policy scenario. Expressing mitigation efforts in terms of their impact on future cumulative emissions aggregated using GWP* would relate them directly to contributions to future warming, better informing both burden-sharing discussions and long-term policies and measures in pursuit of ambitious global temperature goals."
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1465 on: June 08, 2018, 06:43:24 AM »
Our dependency on carbon removal grows
https://blog.mcc-berlin.net/post/article/our-dependency-on-carbon-removal-grows.html
Quote
Meeting the climate goals of the Paris Agreement is going to be nearly impossible without removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Simply reducing emissions from their current level is unlikely to be enough to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius. In fact, we need to remove huge amounts of carbon dioxide — billions of tons per year — to meet these goals because we have repeatedly delayed our decarbonization efforts.

At least a quarter of what we currently emit needs to be stored in trees, soil and under the Earth’s crust. But we are not developing these technologies that we desperately need at the required speed. All the blame is on us: we have simply been too slow to reduce emissions, leaving us in a dire situation where we are going to have to depend on technologies that may not be available in time.
Quote
There is no silver bullet: no single technology is likely to provide all the CO2 removal that is required. All technologies have economic and environmental constrains. They are dependent upon the establishment of policy incentives. We therefore need to explore smart technology portfolios where multiple CO2 removal technologies are deployed at more modest scales. Only diversified portfolios can help us to hedge the risks associated with CO2 removal.

Accompanying text to the image below:
If air capture follows a similar timeline to solar, it won’t be low cost until 2077 or attain widespread adoption until 2100. Credit: William Lamb / MCC

Edit: resized image.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1466 on: June 09, 2018, 02:02:55 AM »
Trump’s abandonment of Paris climate deal to cost U.S. economy trillions, new study reveals
Quote
A new study from Stanford finds that failure to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Accord will cost the U.S. economy several trillion dollars in the coming decades — and cost the world economy tens of trillions of dollars.

The study, “Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets,” was published in the journal Nature last week. It is among the first to analyze the economic benefits of keeping global warming to the levels unanimously agreed to by more than 190 nations at the 2015 Paris climate summit.

President Trump has made the U.S. a rogue nation — the only one in the world to abandon the agreement — under the misguided notion that it will hurt our economy. The reverse is true.

“In fact, we calculate the cumulative savings to the U.S. economy alone of meeting the most ambitious Paris targets could total $6 trillion (in today’s dollars),” the researchers Marshall Burke and Noah Diffenbaugh explained in The Hill on Sunday.

Studies have made clear that this huge economic loss from inaction is vastly larger than the cost of reducing carbon pollution.

Indeed, the Stanford study finds that inaction could cause a stunning 30 percent loss in future global economic output — whereas the world’s scientists and governments have concluded that even the most aggressive climate action costs under 0.1 percent of GDP. ...
https://thinkprogress.org/trump-climate-policies-cost-us-economy-6-trillion-new-study-575120a5870a/
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ivica

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1467 on: June 10, 2018, 11:49:31 PM »
ADDRESS OF HIS HOLINESS POPE FRANCIS TO PARTICIPANTS AT THE MEETING FOR EXECUTIVES OF THE MAIN COMPANIES IN THE OIL AND NATURAL GAS SECTORS, AND OTHER ENERGY RELATED BUSINESSES
Clementine Hall, Saturday, 9 June 2018

Quote
As you know, in December 2015, 196 Nations negotiated and adopted the Paris Agreement, with a firm resolve to limit the growth in global warming to below 2° centigrade, based on preindustrial levels, and, if possible, to below 1.5° centigrade. Some two-and-a-half years later, carbon dioxide emissions and atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases remain very high. This is disturbing and a cause for real concern.

Yet even more worrying is the continued search for new fossil fuel reserves, whereas the Paris Agreement clearly urged keeping most fossil fuels underground. This is why we need to talk together – industry, investors, researchers and consumers – about transition and the search for alternatives. Civilization requires energy, but energy use must not destroy civilization!

His speech. More here.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1468 on: June 11, 2018, 04:34:26 PM »
Those who think that the climate damage done by Trump's actions are limited to only changes in US policies, need to pull their head out of the sand, as Trump's disruption to (weakening of) international institutions will almost certainly contribute to additional climate damage:

Title: "Weakened international institutions could have climate impact"

https://www.axios.com/equinor-climate-forecast-international-instiutions-g7-028c5efa-475c-4172-b56c-39524bfa3faf.html?utm_source=sidebar

Extract: "Part of Equinor's long-term global energy analysis, released late last week, looks eerily prescient after Trump's tumultuous weekend exit from the G7 summit.

The bottom line: The oil-and-gas giant warned that their "Rivalry" scenario — where geopolitical and trade conflict, weakened multilateral institutions and other forces erode efforts on climate — is looking more likely."
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1469 on: June 11, 2018, 04:42:55 PM »
Those who think that the climate damage done by Trump's actions are limited to only changes in US policies, need to pull their head out of the sand, as Trump's disruption to (weakening of) international institutions will almost certainly contribute to additional climate damage:

Extract: "Part of Equinor's long-term global energy analysis, released late last week, looks eerily prescient after Trump's tumultuous weekend exit from the G7 summit.

The bottom line: The oil-and-gas giant warned that their "Rivalry" scenario — where geopolitical and trade conflict, weakened multilateral institutions and other forces erode efforts on climate — is looking more likely."

On the other hand, if Trump and his merry men provoke a really bad trade war, set Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel at each other's throats in a hot war, CO2 emissions could go down but only as a consequence of a huge upturn in human misery.

I betcha the thinkers in Equinor and the other oil/gas majors have a few sleepness nights about that.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1470 on: June 11, 2018, 04:51:47 PM »
On the other hand, if Trump and his merry men provoke a really bad trade war, set Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel at each other's throats in a hot war, CO2 emissions could go down but only as a consequence of a huge upturn in human misery.

I betcha the thinkers in Equinor and the other oil/gas majors have a few sleepness nights about that.

First, hot wars increase CO2 emissions.

Second, oil/gas majors benefit from international disruption by: a) increasing the price of oil/gas thus increasing their profits and b) majors can take advantage of disruption to squeeze smaller oil companies into selling their oil/gas assets to the majors in exchange for liquidity.  ExxonMobil, implements this behavior on a regular basis to take advantage of political-economic cycles.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1471 on: June 12, 2018, 01:14:28 PM »
America’s best friends ready to take on climate … without Trump
Quote
At the G7 summit in Canada this past weekend, nearly all the leaders of the world’s richest and most powerful countries were united behind a bold proclamation: There can be no global economic progress without climate action. Take it or leave it.

And then Trump left.

It now looks like that move could help usher the United States out of the world’s premier economic alliance. The remaining six countries, call them the “G6,” have put climate action ahead of maintaining normal relations with the United States — an unthinkable development not very long ago. That’s huge.
...
Long-simmering tensions between the U.S. and the other countries simply boiled over. It all started when Donald Trump decided to bail on the Paris climate agreement this time last year — a shock to the global community still coming to terms with the prospect of a United States not playing by the rules as a matter of principle. In the run-up to this weekend’s meeting, Justin Trudeau, Canada’s prime minister and the meeting’s host set the agenda, with climate change scheduled for the last day. The timing of Trump’s departure — skipping out just ahead of time — seems curiously timed to avoid the issue.

Emerging from the the wreckage of the summit is a global community that appears surprisingly OK with moving on from an increasingly childish and untrustworthy leader of the United States. A quick survey of initial reactions from observers around the world are nearly unanimous in assessing how events played out over the weekend. In the U.K., the Guardian called it a “watershed moment.” In Germany, Deutsche Welle said: “It’s probably better this way.”
...
https://grist.org/article/leaders-of-worlds-largest-democracies-ready-to-take-on-climate-without-trump/
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1472 on: June 17, 2018, 11:36:03 AM »
Exclusive: Global warming set to exceed 1.5°C, slow growth - U.N. draft.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-report-exclusive/exclusive-global-warming-set-to-exceed-1-5c-slow-growth-u-n-draft-idUSKBN1JA1HD
Quote
OSLO (Reuters) - Global warming is on course to exceed the most stringent goal set in the Paris agreement by around 2040, threatening economic growth, according to a draft report that is the U.N.’s starkest warning yet of the risks of climate change.

Governments can still cap temperatures below the strict 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit) ceiling agreed in 2015 only with “rapid and far-reaching” transitions in the world economy, according to the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Quote
“Economic growth is projected to be lower at 2°C warming than at 1.5° for many developed and developing countries,” it said, drained by impacts such as floods or droughts that can undermine crop growth or an increase in human deaths from heatwaves.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1473 on: June 29, 2018, 06:20:33 AM »
The Seneca Tribe today lives close to Niagara Falls, they'd probably appreciate the cartoon.  :)
Terry

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1474 on: June 29, 2018, 09:35:20 PM »
There's a place called Seneca Falls on the finger lakes in upstate New York, a good place for HMS Seneca to take a cruise.

Kevin Anderson is an optimist, once such things as methane emissions, climate feedbacks and too low ECS estimate etc. are taken into account (as covered in other parts of this site). Even the critics of the UN IPCC are relative optimists! There is no carbon budget.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1475 on: June 30, 2018, 06:16:12 AM »
There's a place called Seneca Falls on the finger lakes in upstate New York, a good place for HMS Seneca to take a cruise.

Kevin Anderson is an optimist, once such things as methane emissions, climate feedbacks and too low ECS estimate etc. are taken into account (as covered in other parts of this site). Even the critics of the UN IPCC are relative optimists! There is no carbon budget.
Ramen
 I wish I could see a way to preserve our culture, but I think that train left the station before I was even aware that there was a problem.
We live in interesting times. :(
Terry

ivica

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1476 on: July 01, 2018, 12:49:52 PM »
The Global Climate Action Summit
San Francisco: Wed, Sep 12, 2018 — Fri, Sep 14, 2018

I see no specific mention of it (except this, ASLR Feb 2018.: "Our aim for the summit is to move from incremental action to exponential and ...") so:

"People everywhere are encouraged to participate in the hundreds of affiliate events taking place in the San Francisco Bay Area and throughout the world during the week of September 10-14th, including climate action panels, workshops, tours, exhibits and other special events. The full affiliate event schedule will be posted here this summer."

"The Summit will underscore the urgency of the threat of climate change by mobilizing the voices and experience of real people, in real communities already facing real and stark threats. It will challenge and channel the energy and idealism of people everywhere to step up and overcome it."

FAQ: "What are the desired outcomes of the Global Climate Action Summit?
The Summit will help demonstrate how much progress has been made on climate action since 2015 and how more is needed. It will mobilize bold new commitments by non-state actors that will contribute to meeting the Paris Agreement. It will also demonstrate to national governments in the run-up to COP24 that stronger commitments are necessary, desirable and achievable. Summit participants are expected to make substantial climate commitments to support climate action in five key areas: Healthy Energy Systems, Inclusive Economic Growth, Sustainable Communities, Land and Ocean Stewardship and Transformative Climate Investments."


Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1477 on: July 01, 2018, 10:11:44 PM »
These Are the Toughest Emissions to Cut, and a Big Chunk of the Climate Problem
Without improvements in shipping, cement and steel, major sources of greenhouse gas pollution will be locked in for generations, new research shows.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28062018/global-warming-pollution-industrial-sources-cement-steel-trade-solutions-technology-shipping
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1478 on: July 05, 2018, 10:13:59 AM »
Kevin Lister, research fellow at Climate Institute, Washington D.C. argues for the need to lower the global average temperature to +0,5°C above pre.industrial. And the use of SRM.



https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/97_Talanoa%20Submission_climate%20institute.pdf

Quote
1. Situation Overview
 
This response to the UN Talanoa Dialogue has been prepared by a consortium of leading climate change scientists, academics and institutions that are focused on developing and encouraging realistic and practical technical and policy responses to stabilize the climate at a level that will fully meet the stated objective of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
 
Our conclusion is that the risk of very serious environmental and societal impacts, including the potential for a near-term, nonlinear and irreversible step change in the planet’s climate is so great that an aggressive climate restoration program needs to be initiated to return the global average temperature to no more than 0.5ºC above its preindustrial level. This program must be comprehensive, pursuing a multi-pronged approach that includes greatly strengthening efforts based on efficiency and mitigation, building up of efforts to restore carbon levels in the soils and land cover, and researching and then likely needing to initiate climate intervention efforts in the near-term to not only ensure the global average temperature does not exceed 1.5ºC at any time (so no overshoot), but also will put the climate on a pathway to a global average temperature characteristic of the mid- to late 20th century when conditions were generally within the range of natural variability under which society and prevailing ecosystems were not facing severe threats (a global average temperate estimated to be no more than 0.5ºC above its preindustrial level).
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1479 on: July 08, 2018, 12:50:17 PM »
The Netherlands contemplates the world’s toughest climate law
A new Dutch proposal would put climate at the center of national politics.
Quote
Last week, a coalition of seven Dutch political parties unveiled a climate policy proposal that is breathtaking in its ambition. If it becomes law, it will codify the most stringent targets for greenhouse gas reductions of any country in the world.

There are still several steps between the proposal and passage, including debate in both houses of Parliament, and lawmakers may make changes. But given the broad political support — the parties involved control 113 of 150 seats in Parliament — it is widely expected to pass in something like its current form by late next summer.

It would be the world’s eighth national climate law (after the UK, Mexico, Denmark, Finland, France, Norway, and Sweden), but it boasts a few features that make it particularly notable.

It’s bipartisan! Or rather, heptapartisan.

Here in the US, we’ve grown depressingly accustomed to climate battles breaking down along partisan lines: Democrats push (inadequate) solutions; Republicans deny that the problem exists or that anything needs to be done about it.

In contrast, the Dutch proposal is supported by a coalition of parties ranging from the far left to the center-right, together representing a large majority of seats in the Dutch Parliament. (One notable absence: the right-wing populist party, Party for Freedom, led by notorious Islamophobe Geert Wilders.) The current prime minister, Mark Rutte, leads the center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), which is one of the bill’s primary supporters.
...
If passed as proposed, the Dutch law would be the world’s most stringent, putting into statute the following targets:

• 49 percent reduction in greenhouse gases (relative to 1990 levels) by 2030
• 95 percent reduction by 2050
• 100 percent carbon-neutral electricity by 2050
...
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/7/6/17535720/netherlands-dutch-climate-law-paris-targets
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1480 on: July 08, 2018, 02:27:30 PM »
I am writing a submission to th City Of York's Local Plan. I can't quite believe what I've just written.

Quote
As I write this (8th July 2018), the Guardian's Carbon countdown clock gives the remaining catbon budget for staying below 2C as 736.5 billion tonnes of CO2e (CO2- equivalent) considerably less than in the diagram. That's just over 100 tones CO2e for every person on Earth. For a temperature rise of  1.5C the remaining CO2e budget is under 2.2 billion tonnes CO2e or 0.3 tonnes for every person on Earth.

Is this sensible?
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1481 on: July 08, 2018, 04:31:32 PM »
I am writing a submission to th City Of York's Local Plan. I can't quite believe what I've just written.

Quote
As I write this (8th July 2018), the Guardian's Carbon countdown clock gives the remaining catbon budget for staying below 2C as 736.5 billion tonnes of CO2e (CO2- equivalent) considerably less than in the diagram. That's just over 100 tones CO2e for every person on Earth. For a temperature rise of  1.5C the remaining CO2e budget is under 2.2 billion tonnes CO2e or 0.3 tonnes for every person on Earth.

Is this sensible?

1) Spellchecker!

2) People are now poorly educated about the physical world they live in. (Gotta learn their IT and social media skills). Most people find it hard to relate physical quantities to their lives. When I used to write stuff for general use as opposed to fellow professionals I put all the technical stuff in appendices - and in a very short summary tried to shove the messages (maximum 3) down the throats of my target audience in terms that related to their personal lives (for you that means in York).

So quoting tonnes probably won't have much impact, nor will tonnes per person on earth. So I guess I would shove the technical stuff in the appendix (to show you know your stuff) and in the front:-
- show the probability that 1.5 degrees is toast - no time left,
- show that 2 degrees might well be toast - not a lot of time left,
- show that we are talking this half-century.
What will the effects on York likely to be ?
Water supply?
Floods?
Droughts?
What can York do to play its part and also mitigate effects of climate change?
Water supply?
Stop building on flood plains?
Parks and forests?
Renewable energy?
Public Transport - EV's, cycle networks.

You gotta sell a story - that makes people want to continue where you have stopped. Propaganda rules.
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1482 on: July 08, 2018, 05:22:25 PM »
gerontocrat.   Thanks. That's helpful.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1483 on: July 10, 2018, 10:50:58 AM »
I'm still fiddling with figures for a submission to the York Local Plan. Note for writing up in English:

Quote
Carbon Clock (Guardian) says remaining carbon budget in CO2e for 2°C is 736 Gt CO2e

World population is 7.6 billion

So that's nearly 100 tonnes CO2e each

Global Carbon Project says CO2 emissions in 2016 were 40+ Gt (including land use change)

Increase by 25% to get 50 Gt CO2e /year

That's 7 tonnes per person which will last 14 years.

A bit longer if reductions happen soon.

Anything seriously wrong?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1484 on: July 11, 2018, 07:45:04 PM »
At least half of products and services to be low carbon in ten years, say majority of businesses with Paris-aligned climate commitments
- 1 in 5 executives with science-based emissions reduction goals expect 100% of their company’s products and services to be low carbon by 2028;
- Environment seen as the second biggest factor influencing business growth in the next five years;
- Bottom line savings for nearly a third of companies as a result of ambitious emissions cutting goals.
Quote
(10 July 2018): A new YouGov survey of global corporations in the Science Based Targets initiative has found that more than half of executives (52%) expect at least 50% of their products and services to be low carbon by 2028.[1] Of these, nearly 1 in 5 (19%) predict close to 100% will be low carbon in ten years’ time.

The companies surveyed have already set, or committed to set, science-based targets to cut their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in line with the rates required to keep global warming below 2°C. ...
https://sciencebasedtargets.org/2018/07/10/at-least-half-of-products-and-services-to-be-low-carbon-in-ten-years-say-majority-of-businesses-with-paris-aligned-climate-commitments/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1485 on: July 11, 2018, 08:53:52 PM »
Big Breaking News: California reports it's greenhouse gas emissions target of 2020 was reached by the end of 2016, four years early.

Quote
In a major win for California’s fight against global warming, the state appears to have hit its first target for cutting greenhouse gases — and it reached the goal four years early.

Data released by the California Air Resource Board on Wednesday show that the state’s greenhouse gas emissions dropped 2.7 percent in 2016 — the latest year available — to 429.4 million metric tonnes.

That’s slightly better than the 431 million metric tonnes the state produced in 1990. And California law requires that the state’s emissions, which peaked in 2004, return to 1990 levels by 2020.

Since the peak, emissions have dropped 13 percent. And they have continued falling in recent years even as the state’s economy surged.

California is not done. State law also mandates that emissions drop another 40 percent by 2030. And while analysts were confident the state would hit its 2020 target, they aren’t as certain about 2030.

“In California we see the impacts of climate change all around us, but our efforts to curb its worst impacts are on track,” said Mary Nichols, chairwoman of the Air Resources Board.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/amp/California-hits-2020-greenhouse-gas-reduction-13066821.php
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1486 on: July 12, 2018, 01:47:14 PM »
Californian Emissions

At 429 million tonnes CO2e, that's 10.86 tonnes per Californian. I would have assumed much worse.

Is there a catch? Are these just production emissions not consumption emissions?

I'm pleased to report the UK Committee on Climate Change is getting more open about this issue.



Where was the steel made for all those cars in California?
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1487 on: July 12, 2018, 03:37:30 PM »
HADCRUT4 and the Paris agreement

There is an interesting article on Carbon Brief  Permafrost and wetland emissions could cut 1.5C carbon budget ‘by five years' describing a paper in Nature Geoscience

This work is, of course, very welcome. Getting a better grip of the size of some of the feedbacks missing from the CMIP5 models will (or should) be important to policy makers.

However, I note they use the HadCRUT4 temperature measure, which ignores the Arctic with its faster rising temperatures. HADCRUT4 is also a mix of sea surface temperature and temperatures measured a metre or so above the land surface. Land temperatures are rising significantly faster.

HADCRUT4 does not include the temperature of the oceans below the surface. This is the main driver for sea level rise.

So this paper does not easily translate to an estimate of the full nasty effects of raised temperatures on land or - something that was important in the Paris agreement- the drowning of the Maldives.
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Bruce Steele

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1488 on: July 12, 2018, 06:06:38 PM »
Geoff,  I think the Calif Air Resourses Board is proud of their new report , where we are as a measure of where we need to go.
I haven't gone into the report but the first two circle charts are interesting. We have good hydro resources and there are thousands
of acres of solar already installed. The report does include the CO2 emissions of imported electricity. Metal for imported cars? I don't know.


https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/data.htm

jacksmith4tx

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1489 on: July 12, 2018, 07:21:02 PM »
As Americans Experienced the Warmest May on Record Their Acceptance of Global Warming Reaches a New High
http://closup.umich.edu/files/ieep-nsee-2018-spring-climate-belief.pdf
Key Findings:
1. More Americans think that there is solid evidence of global warming than at anytime since 2008 with 73% maintaining this view in the latest version of the NSEE conducted in late April and May of 2018.
2. A record 60% of Americans now think that global warming is happening and that humans are at least partially responsible for the rising temperatures.
3. While half of Republicans think that there is solid evidence of global warming, the divide between the 90% of Democrats that hold this view and the 50% of Republicans that maintain this position is as large as anytime since 2008.
4. The divide between Democrats and Republicans on the existence of anthropogenic induced global warming is also at record levels with 78% of Democrats now holding the view that humans are at least partially responsible for warming on the planet compared to only 35% of Republicans.

It seems to me the litmus test of if you are a Republican is if you reject global warming, full stop. As a corollary, the more you heat the brains of right wingers the less they believe the science.
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1490 on: July 15, 2018, 07:49:33 AM »
Californian Emissions

At 429 million tonnes CO2e, that's 10.86 tonnes per Californian. I would have assumed much worse.

Is there a catch? Are these just production emissions not consumption emissions?

...

Where was the steel made for all those cars in California?
Via Sig's link(s):

A Consumption-Based Greenhouse Gas Inventory of San Francisco Bay Area Neighborhoods.
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2sn7m83z
Fig1 attached.

A recent study; Carbon footprints of 13 000 cities:
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aac72a/meta
http://citycarbonfootprints.info/
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1491 on: July 15, 2018, 09:43:16 PM »
Sleepy

Just found your very helpful answer

Thanks


A Consumption-Based Greenhouse Gas Inventory of San Francisco Bay Area Neighborhoods has

Quote
The carbon footprint of the average S.F. Bay Area household (Figure 1) is 44.3 metric tons of CO2  equivalent gases per year (16.3 tons tCO2e per person). This compares to about 50 metric tons for the average U.S. household.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1492 on: July 16, 2018, 10:05:51 AM »
Just trying to connect the dots GB. Speaking of which:
Anyone who has access to the article mentioned here in LAtimes by Leah Stokes?
https://twitter.com/leahstokes/status/1018509457058344961
I just got this:
Quote
Unfortunately, our website is currently unavailable in most European countries. We are engaged on the issue and committed to looking at options that support our full range of digital offerings to the EU market. We continue to identify technical compliance solutions that will provide all readers with our award-winning journalism.
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1493 on: July 17, 2018, 04:39:29 PM »
Article by Oliver Geden, in German.
https://www.klimafakten.de/meldung/15-grad-limit-der-machbarkeits-pokal-gehoert-die-vitrine

Open the link with chrome, highlight the text, and it will ask you if you want to translate. Not bad.

Quote
1.5 degree limit: The "Feasibility Cup" belongs in the showcase
Climate policy likes to set lofty goals, but does not act accordingly. Climatologists and policy advisers should therefore present the facts in a way that makes it harder for politicians to avoid the practical consequences of the climate change that they accept. A guest post by Oliver Geden

Climate policy likes to set lofty goals, but does not act accordingly. beginning, middle, and end of story.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1494 on: July 18, 2018, 09:18:39 PM »
Palau is in the middle of a new experiment: Over the next year and a half, the country will shift to 100% renewable energy, at no cost to the government, in what is likely to be the fastest national transition to renewable energy ever to occur.

This island nation is making the fastest-ever shift to renewables
The island nation of Palau plans to stop buying diesel and go 100% solar by the end of 2019–and offer a blueprint for other island nations to do the same.
https://amp.fastcompany.com/90203041/this-island-nation-is-making-the-fastest-ever-shift-to-renewables

Cross post from Renewables thread.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1495 on: July 19, 2018, 03:39:15 AM »
Palau: population 21,503

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1496 on: July 19, 2018, 09:36:38 AM »
Palau? What about the average American Tanker Truck?
It must be empty, this is from 2012.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1497 on: July 19, 2018, 10:02:00 AM »
Kevin-Quotes of the day:

Leadership occurs when the singular becomes collective. It's a system property that cant be understood soley in terms of individual behaviour. You're part of a movement that is catalysing system leadership whilst highlighting the falsehood of those discrediting individual action.

Many dangerous religions hide behind a veil of Empiricism; Cost-benefit analysis & Integrated Assessment models are two religions regularly held up as 'objective'. We cannot escape 'morality' & believing we can is itself a religion. Better that we open up our morals for critique.

Edit; since I do not wish to contribute to fake news on this forum I should point out that both are Kevin Anderson tweets and that the first quote is from the 16th and the second from yesterday.  :)
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1498 on: July 19, 2018, 12:59:53 PM »

Edit; since I do not wish to contribute to fake news on this forum I should point out that both are Kevin Anderson tweets and that the first quote is from the 16th and the second from yesterday.  :)

So which Kevin Andersen is tweeting this stuff?
Presumably not this one:-
Quote
Kevin Andersen | Parsons Accounting & Tax Services
www.parsonsaccounting.com/team/kevin-t-andersen
Kevin enjoys providing personalized tax and accounting services to individuals and small businesses. He currently runs his own CPA firm located in Half Moon ...

or this one ?:-

Quote
Kevin Andersen wins $100,000 August grand prize - ESPN Streak
streak.espn.com/en/story?pageName=streak\augustwinner10
Andersen's W25 was good for $100k in August '10. Kevin Andersen of Memphis, Tenn., recorded a 25-game win streak to capture the $100,000 Streak for the ...

or this one?:-

Quote
WIMBLEDON 2018: Roger Federer knocked out by Kevin Andersen in ...
https://www.republicworld.com/.../wimbledon-2018-roger-federer-knocked-out-by-k...
11 Jul 2018 - Roger Federer will have to wait to win his 21st Grand Slam and ninth Wimbledon title after he was defeated.

And why are the tweets of such moment ?
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oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1499 on: July 19, 2018, 03:03:33 PM »
So which Kevin Andersen is tweeting this stuff?
And why are the tweets of such moment ?
I can only answer your first question, but it's Kevin AndersOn as Sleepy mentioned, and I believe it's this guy https://twitter.com/KevinClimate
Quote
Professor of energy and climate change - interested in translating the science of climate change into carbon budgets, policy goals and mitigation options.