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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1500 on: July 19, 2018, 03:58:33 PM »
Do you think Climate "Kevin from Manchester" Anderson has been mentioned too many times in this thread? Starts in 2014 at #6 by wili and then a gazillion times more, especially in the last several pages.

The second quote is Kevin's reply to Caldeira, which might be useful to read as well:
https://twitter.com/KevinClimate/status/1019506619326128128
This is more or less where discussions on this forum has been hovering for years.
My personal take on this hasn't changed at all.
Maybe they are just trying to be positive.
But maintaining a positive attitude, while beeing lazy, will fail. It doesn't matter if you want to be successful in marathon, or be successful in mitigation.

Which was a reply to this:
OrganicSu, I haven't seen that article but it refers to the same study as I posted above, but with a complimentary share in the article, thanks! I'll save that projection...

Considering all of those deniers who only read headlines, that headline is really bad.

Love the non-mention of upward revisions in the previous two years (1.1% to 1.7% in 2013 and 0.0 to 0.6% in 2014) and the massive (13%!) uncertainty in Chinese emissions -- also note massive consumption drop to 2-3%/a over the last year. Decoupling my ass.


Seriously, are people willing to accept this stuff at face value even after multiple massive upward revisions in Chinese emissions over the past few years (including the recent one)?

Slowing I can buy -- after all, there was a period of outright contraction in industrial output earlier this year. But the claims of a huge change in decarbonization and decoupling are extremely premature -- if not outright farcical, just like the 1.5C "target" being thrown around right now. We'll only know a few years from now.

In the meantime, Mauna Loa is a better gauge after ENSO adjustment.

Now we know, which is also why I found these quotes by Kevin Anderson of such moment and I think this is pivotal for our collective mitigation efforts.

Our Seneca ship,


 is sailing into this:
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1501 on: July 19, 2018, 07:56:23 PM »
Too many threads for my tired brain.

So Kevin Anderson knows his stuff, and a deep thinker as well. Trouble is, those who presume to govern us are not listening. I posted this on the renewable energy thread (yesterday I think).

I am a member of the English Green Party - but even they seem to be distracted by social justice issues, the environment lost in all the surrounding media noise.

What to do (while this old man still can) ?

Quote
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2952 on: Today at 10:49:35 AM »
QuoteModifyRemove
Things are going a bit wrong.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/17/iea-warns-of-worrying-trend-as-global-investment-in-renewables-falls


The world’s energy watchdog has sounded the alarm over a “worrying” pause in the shift to clean energy after global investment in  fell 7% to $318bn (£240bn) last year.

The International Energy Agency said the decline is set to continue into 2018, threatening energy security, climate change and air pollution goals.

Fossil fuels increased their share of energy supply investment for the first time since 2014, to $790bn, and will play a significant role for years on current trends, the IEA said.

Investment in coal power dropped sharply but was offset by an uptick in oil and gas spending, the World Energy Investment report found.
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1502 on: July 20, 2018, 08:03:33 AM »
Mornin'. I'll second that, AsiLurker.

My last post above was only from one thread, this one, except the Kevin quotes. Ignore our leaders, forget Trump, forget Elon, forget all of those dinosaur "one man fix it all guys", I don't need them or their money to mitigate, neither does anyone else.

This is about everday people changing their society. Look at the cave rescue, look at small farmers, look at everday people; they are changing. Fast enough? I don''t know but that's why I liked the first quote by Kevin above:
Leadership occurs when the singular becomes collective. It's a system property that cant be understood soley in terms of individual behaviour. You're part of a movement that is catalysing system leadership whilst highlighting the falsehood of those discrediting individual action.

Why will dinosaurs have to change? A few recent snippets.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/17/climate/india-heat-wave-summer.html
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-19/how-fear-fuelled-diy-power-boom/10009872
https://www.nrc.no/news/2018/july/alarming-lack-of-funding-claims-lives/
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05708-7

The following are in Swedish about a farmer here, Adam Arnesson, changing towards more resilient crops and animals. He will be successful with this approach.
http://www.sverigesnatur.org/intervju/ekobonden-som-bryter-ny-mark/
Also adding a recent video although it's in Swedish...

More on the Swedish drought, here's a good one:
https://twitter.com/JKuylenstierna/status/1019709311767994368
Costs of supporting Sweden's farmers ~10 billion. SEB's quarterly profit ~10 billion.
Tada! :)

News around climate related issues are more or less boiling, our leaders must change.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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vigilius

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1503 on: July 20, 2018, 08:43:39 AM »
Going back up a bit to the Solar Radiation Management thing?

Maybe I should stay in stupid questions department, but....
sulfate aerosols? In addition to everything else, isn't that what was causing acid rain? Didn't we just go to a lot of trouble to get rid of sulfate aerosols from coal-fired electrical generating facilities? Now we're going to put them up on purpose? (sighs)

OTOH I really did like the guy in the tape, he may be right for all I know.....

Anyway, someone please tell me if I am right/wrong about this one little point.

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1504 on: July 20, 2018, 09:27:12 AM »
Throw in a hug from me too, Lurk.
When it comes to science in general, one really do want to listen to many, not the individual scientist. What Kevin does so well, is filling the gap between science and people in a harsh but still careful and respectful way.

Re: SRM, the really crazy part is that people are discussing this for real, like Kevin Lister above.

How are you going to mitigate today? Imagine if we (top 10%) all did something? Just a tiny little bit less or different every day, multiply by ~760 million. That is powerful.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1505 on: July 20, 2018, 10:01:39 AM »
Mornin'. I'll second that, AsiLurker.

My last post above was only from one thread, this one, except the Kevin quotes. Ignore our leaders, forget Trump, forget Elon, forget all of those dinosaur "one man fix it all guys", I don't need them or their money to mitigate, neither does anyone else.

This is about everday people changing their society. Look at the cave rescue, look at small farmers, look at everday people; they are changing. Fast enough? I don''t know but that's why I liked the first quote by Kevin above:
Leadership occurs when the singular becomes collective. It's a system property that cant be understood soley in terms of individual behaviour. You're part of a movement that is catalysing system leadership whilst highlighting the falsehood of those discrediting individual action.

Why will dinosaurs have to change? A few recent snippets.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/17/climate/india-heat-wave-summer.html
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-19/how-fear-fuelled-diy-power-boom/10009872
https://www.nrc.no/news/2018/july/alarming-lack-of-funding-claims-lives/
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05708-7

The following are in Swedish about a farmer here, Adam Arnesson, changing towards more resilient crops and animals. He will be successful with this approach.
http://www.sverigesnatur.org/intervju/ekobonden-som-bryter-ny-mark/
Also adding a recent video although it's in Swedish...

More on the Swedish drought, here's a good one:
https://twitter.com/JKuylenstierna/status/1019709311767994368
Costs of supporting Sweden's farmers ~10 billion. SEB's quarterly profit ~10 billion.
Tada! :)

News around climate related issues are more or less boiling, our leaders must change.
Sweden may be getting a change in leaders ?

The far-right Sweden Democrats are riding high in the polls, they are certainly influencing policy of other parties.
Here is a snippet from their manifesto:-

Quote
energy policy

In order for Sweden to maintain high international competitiveness and living standards, we want to pursue an energy policy that ensures affordable and reliable energy supply for both households and businesses while meeting high demands for environmental friendliness. We need nuclear power to not become addicted to dirty, European coal power or Russian gas. Alternative energy sources such as wind power and solar power can not in the near future constitute more than complement to nuclear and hydroelectric power.

At least they are not doing a Trump on climate.  So one could say that at least one populist party in Europe has got the message on climate, even if their other policies are revolting.

Leaders must change, but will they?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1506 on: July 20, 2018, 10:26:40 AM »
No, they are doing a Trump, cloaked in Swedish manners.
https://www.naturskyddsforeningen.se/val2018/sa-mycket-lovar-partierna-for-miljon
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1507 on: July 20, 2018, 11:00:34 AM »
No, they are doing a Trump, cloaked in Swedish manners.
https://www.naturskyddsforeningen.se/val2018/sa-mycket-lovar-partierna-for-miljon

Translation from your link-

Quote
Prior to the 2018 election we have put together 18 sharp proposals for a more ambitious environmental policy,

The Swedish Democrats  come with a big margin last in the ranking as they only support two of 18 proposals. In our 2014 survey, the party did not support a single proposal. Sweden Democrats are the party in the Riksdag that has the absolute least environmental ambitions. If the party receives increased influence in the Riksdag this autumn, as many studies point out, there is a great risk that the possibilities of pursuing an offensive environmental policy are significantly limited.

Bastards. Or should one say that maths says 2 divided by Zero is infinitely greater.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1508 on: July 20, 2018, 11:33:14 AM »
@gerontocrat; they are lying bastards. Read this if you wish.
https://miljo-utveckling.se/inget-tyder-pa-att-vi-nar-parismalen/

Zero leadership, only advocating passivity and negativity, consider Kevin Andersons quotes above.

@Lurk; thanks, that one looks familiar but I'll have to watch it later, my old lady is getting annoyed about me sitting here typing.  ;D
Gotta go...
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vigilius

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1509 on: July 20, 2018, 06:07:29 PM »
Many thanks and WTF WTF WTF WTF WTF WTF

Not a stupid question .... you just did a double take and said 'WTF?'

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1510 on: July 22, 2018, 04:00:16 PM »
In the first quarter of 2018 China's energy usage jumped, and CO2 emissions increased by 4% y-o-y. They are on track for an even higher increase in CO2 emissions for all of 2018 - so much for the peaking of emissions. Their Paris commitment was to peak by 2030.

https://www.ft.com/content/98839504-6334-11e8-90c2-9563a0613e56

Covered very well on Radio Ecoshock, by the head of the Global Carbon Project.

https://www.ecoshock.org/2018/06/carbon-climate-showdown.html

This is the problem with rapid growth of the Chinese sort (and India, Indonesia etc.), energy efficiency plus new renewables installs just cannot provide all of the incremental new energy required. China is also reducing its support for new renewable projects, which has led to a significant reduction in solar growth forecasts this year. Unless Chinese growth slows significantly this can only mean continued increases in carbon emissions.

https://renewablesnow.com/news/gtm-cuts-by-40-2018-solar-forecast-for-china-615667/

Much more aggressive action is required from the already rich countries, but with the US out of the game (and also the largest province in Canada with the new right wing government), and the rest not pushing very hard, we wont be peaking anytime soon.








Sebastian Jones

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1511 on: July 22, 2018, 07:05:44 PM »
Unless Chinese growth slows significantly this can only mean continued increases in carbon emissions.


Certainly Chinese growth is a problem, but so too are policies in most countries that  have unending economic growth as their main goal. Canada for example has "growth" at the core of its climate strategy....While we persist in the delusion that we can grow our way out of increased impact, emissions and environmental degradation grow in harmony.....

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1512 on: July 22, 2018, 10:17:38 PM »
....While we persist in the delusion that we can grow our way out of increased impact, emissions and environmental degradation grow in harmony.....

And it is an increasingly unpleasant and loud harmony - to which the world seems to be shutting its ears.
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1513 on: July 22, 2018, 10:22:57 PM »
Certainly Chinese growth is a problem, but so too are policies in most countries that  have unending economic growth as their main goal. Canada for example has "growth" at the core of its climate strategy....While we persist in the delusion that we can grow our way out of increased impact, emissions and environmental degradation grow in harmony.....

Could not agree more, the fixation on growth for the already rich countries is ridiculous. With only a slightly fairer sharing of the wealth, countries such as Canada could have everyone living very well. Canada could also stop the ridiculously high rates of immigration, which is removing the country's biophysical surplus while at the same time reducing the quality of life - especially in the Toronto area.

sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1514 on: July 23, 2018, 06:29:09 AM »
"an increasingly unpleasant and loud harmony"

cacophony ?

sidd

silkman

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1515 on: July 23, 2018, 09:32:27 AM »
Quote
Earth Overshoot Day falls on 1 August this year - marking the point at which consumption exceeds the capacity of nature to regenerate

..... and this is the result:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/23/earths-resources-consumed-in-ever-greater-destructive-volumes

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1516 on: July 24, 2018, 06:20:21 PM »
FIXING SEXISM AT THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
A sexist remark at a recent meeting prompted some soul-searching among the world's top climate scientists. How can they prevent women's expertise from being excluded?
Quote
In one instance, Friederike Otto, an associate professor at Oxford University specializing in extreme weather events, was being introduced to a group of men. She'd said her name and where she was from—she was wearing her lead author badge—when one of her interlocutors asked who her supervisor was, implying that she must still be a graduate student. In fact, she's deputy director of Oxford University's Environmental Change Institute.
https://psmag.com/environment/fixing-sexism-at-the-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1517 on: August 02, 2018, 05:31:35 PM »

The linked reference estimates that the 1.5C carbon budget should be reduced by about five years from previous consensus estimates:

Edward Comyn-Platt  et al. (2018), "Carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C targets lowered by natural wetland and permafrost feedbacks", Nature Geoscience, volume 11, pages568–573, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0174-9

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0174-9

Extract: "Global methane emissions from natural wetlands and carbon release from permafrost thaw have a positive feedback on climate, yet are not represented in most state-of-the-art climate models. Furthermore, a fraction of the thawed permafrost carbon is released as methane, enhancing the combined feedback strength."

See also:
https://www.skepticalscience.com/permafrost-wetland-emissions-cut-budget-5-years.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1518 on: August 06, 2018, 01:50:03 PM »
Walmart became one of the earliest companies to buy clean energy -- and showed it can save money.

Walmart's Zeal for Green Power Meets a Coal-Loving President
Quote
So far, there’s no sign Trump policies have led companies from Amazon.com Inc. to Alphabet Inc.’s Google to pull back on green energy. Corporate purchases of wind and solar have already topped last year’s record. And Walmart, while not mentioning Trump, said in a statement last week that its “sustainability efforts are going to continue as planned.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-08-06/walmart-s-zeal-for-green-power-meets-a-coal-loving-president
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NeilT

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1519 on: August 07, 2018, 12:16:31 AM »
we wont be peaking anytime soon.

in fact if you check the stats, we are accelerating.

Going through that list, every single accord ever signed resulted in more acceleration in real terms.

So much for accords on climate change....
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NeilT

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1520 on: August 07, 2018, 02:31:25 PM »
Just as a point, did the full report on VAG's reason for rigging the emission tests get reported here?

In short the synopsis was:  "VAG would have had to spend too much money for too long a time to make their engines both compliant and competitive, so they cheated instead".

Not quite the Vorsprung Durch Technik that they put on the TV ads.....

Must be a great comfort to PSA to know that the EU internal market mechanisms work so well...
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1521 on: August 14, 2018, 04:32:57 PM »
The study cited in the linked article finds that extensive use of BECCS technology would lead to an increase in carbon in the atmosphere rather than the decrease assumed by many IPCC projections:

Title: "Guest post: Why BECCS might not produce ‘negative’ emissions after all"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-beccs-might-not-produce-negative-emissions-after-all

Extract: "In our new study, published in Nature Communications, my colleagues and I find that expansion of bioenergy in order to meet the 1.5C limit could cause net losses in carbon from the land surface. Instead, we find that protecting and expanding forests could be more effective options for meeting the Paris Agreement."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1522 on: August 15, 2018, 09:43:48 PM »
Out of the frying pan and into the fire:

Title: "Trump’s E.P.A. Is Just Going to Let “Beautiful, Clean” Coal Plants Regulate Themselves"

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/08/trump-epa-just-going-to-let-beautiful-clean-coal-plants-regulate-themselves#~o

Extract: "The administration is about to unveil a plan allowing planet-destroying plants to opt out of following any rules at all."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1523 on: August 16, 2018, 06:05:35 PM »
Airline carbon emissions are the poster child of why modern society remains on a BAU pathway.  The global socio-economic system primarily responds to price pressures, but politicians/regulators do their best to keep prices low in order to stimulate the economy:

Title: "Why our carbon emission policies don't work on air travel"

https://phys.org/news/2018-07-carbon-emission-policies-dont-air.html

Extract: "The cost of air travel has fallen dramatically over the last 25 years."
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1524 on: August 19, 2018, 06:37:02 PM »
We have:
- airline emissions increasing exponentially
- coal usage increasing in China/India/Indonesia more than offsetting any cuts in USA/Europe
- increasing usage of fracked natural gas that is just as bad or possibly worse than coal (if we use a more relevant gwp20 or less for methane)
- significant cheating through the use of wood pellets to replace coal, when in fact they may be worse than coal
- continued increases in oil usage driven by the new developing countries' middle classes wanting more mobility and truck-delivered goods (to be offset slightly by electrified vehicles in the next few years)

Which is leading to ongoing increases in emissions, showing the "pause" in global emissions to be a one off rather than a trend change. The next official feedback to policy makes will not be until the 2021/2022 timeframe - through the UN IPCC official report. The creativity that they will need to "square the circle" will be quite extraordinary.

I expect to start hearing more and more about geo-engineering as 2020 approaches, unless we have a major financial crisis that reduces emissions in the short term and distracts everyone from CC. Then we may have to wait another 5-7 years for the powers that be to wake up.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1525 on: August 19, 2018, 07:40:20 PM »
”The fashion industry, including the production of all clothes which people wear, contributes to around 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions due to its long supply chains and energy intensive production.  The industry consumes more energy than the aviation and shipping industry combined.”

UN Helps Fashion Industry Shift to Low Carbon
Quote
UN Climate Change News, 6 August 2018 – With the help of the UN, the world’s USD 2.5 trillion USD fashion industry is shifting to more sustainable business models which can help fight climate change and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
https://unfccc.int/news/un-helps-fashion-industry-shift-to-low-carbon
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1526 on: August 20, 2018, 06:25:30 PM »
Australia has pulled out of the Paris emissions agreements.

“In politics you have to focus on what you can deliver,” Mr Turnbull said on Monday, adding the legislation would not pass parliament if it contained an emissions target. “Cheaper power has always been our number one priority when it comes to energy policy.” he told reporters.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/australia-climate-change-malcolm-turnbull-prime-minister-leadership-a8499366.html

I'm not sure this is a formal withdrawal from the Paris accords but that should be next as soon as they can agree on the wording.

Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1527 on: August 28, 2018, 12:45:54 PM »
And now France is found wanting....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/28/french-environment-minister-quits-live-on-radio-with-anti-macron-broadside
French environment minister quits live on radio with anti-Macron broadside
Nicolas Hulot says he is leaving government because president is not doing enough on climate and other environmental goals

Quote
Hulot told French radio that the “mini steps” taken by France and other nations to slow global warming and avert a collapse of biodiversity were totally inadequate. “I don’t want to create the illusion that we’re facing up to it,” he said. “I can’t lie to myself any more,” he added.

When the blah blah has to stop?
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bluesky

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1528 on: August 28, 2018, 04:41:10 PM »
Nicolas Hulot, the former "envoyé spécial" of the French government in view of the organisation of the Cop 21 in Paris 2015, has resigned as a the Environment Minister in Macron's French government:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/28/french-environment-minister-quits-live-on-radio-with-anti-macron-broadside

"Hulot, who was one of the most popular ministers in government, told French radio the “mini steps” taken by France and other nations to slow global warming and avert a collapse of biodiversity were inadequate. “I don’t want to create the illusion that we’re facing up to it,” he said. “I can’t lie to myself any more.”
Hulot announced his departure after the government said it would relax hunting laws, a measure aimed at boosting Macron’s appeal in rural areas, but seen by environmentalists as caving in to the powerful hunting lobby.
Under the changes, hunting licences would be cheaper and more species could be shot, sparking outrage among campaigners for the protection of birds. Hulot said lobbies had too much power over the French government.
Hulot’s differences with the government had been exposed in recent months. He had been disappointed when the government backtracked on a target to reduce reliance on nuclear power to 50% of the country’s energy mix by 2025.
He had also sought a legal ban on the controversial weedkiller glyphosate but was overruled by the agriculture ministry, which preferred negotiating directly with farmers and industry.
The government was taken by surprise by Hulot’s announcement live on radio. Macron, who was beginning a visit to Denmark, was not informed beforehand."

It was quite obvious that the appointment of Nicolas Hulot in Macron's government was a kind of a "greenwashing" as Macron had never shown real interest in climate change and environmental matters during the 2017 French Presidential election.

Full brodcast interview (in French) this morning when Hulot announced his resignation:

https://www.franceinter.fr/emissions/l-invite-de-8h20-le-grand-entretien/l-invite-de-8h20-le-grand-entretien-28-aout-2018



NeilT

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1529 on: August 28, 2018, 06:47:41 PM »
France has the lowest CO2 per KW/h of any major economy in the developed world.  Exclusively due to France's Nuclear power capability.  Something Nicolas Hulot wanted to reduce by 50%.

Hulot is the kind of "environmentalist" who gives Climate Change a bad name.

The French Nuclear capability is absolutely perfect for EV overnight charging as it takes a lot of time to vary Nuclear power station output.

Hulot is a fanatic who self destructed over hunting laws.  By abandoning his post he walked away from actions on the Paris Accord which will ensure the long term survival of this wildlife he claims to love so much.

This is not the message the climate lobby needs.  It needs pragmatic and "grounded" people who can influence and drive solutions to the CO2 issue.  At this level of Government there is no place for crusading when that crusading will increase CO2 emissions. Germany is living this right now.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2018, 07:01:30 PM by NeilT »
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bluesky

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1530 on: August 28, 2018, 07:35:55 PM »
France has the lowest CO2 per KW/h in the developed world.  Exclusively due to France's Nuclear power capability.  Something Nicolas Hulot wanted to reduce by 50%.

Hulot is the kind of "environmentalist" who gives Climate Change a bad name.

The French Nuclear capability is absolutely perfect for EV overnight charging as it takes a lot of time to vary Nuclear power station output.

It seems that you are not aware that French nuclear powerplants are already beyond there expected life expectancy for many of them, as an example Bugey 5000 Megawatt which was built up in the mid 70ies, very close to Lyon a 1.3 million conurbation and even closer to Switzerland who constantly asks for the plant to be closed down (not even talking about Fessenheim built on a seismic fault very near to an historical earthquake of close to magnitude 7 that the plant is not able to sustain, Bugey and Fessenheim are only two examples). Nuclear power is terribly expensive and non economic, dangerous in a warming world, there have been already instances in which some French nuclear powerplant were about to be drown and the cooling inoperant as for Fukushima (e.g. Blayais nuclear power plant in 1999 during the very powerful winter storm on the 27th of December, other plants during recent drought as the flow of the nearby river was not sufficient, or the river water temperature was too elevated). It is also well known that French nuclear powerplants are vulnerable to terrorist attacks. At many occasion, Greenpeace's team managed to get into the security perimeter of several French nuclear powerplants without being noticed before tenth of minutes. There are other risks that were "finally" discovered by the French safety nuclear authority, post Fukushima, leading to 10th of billions of euros of additional safety building works, while a high proportion of the nuclear power plants are quite often not producing any watt of power, as in maintenance due to their lifespan being longer than expected. The cost does not include the decomissioning cost which will be humongous.


The result is that France is lagging behind by a very long length all Western European countries for the renewables (excluding hydro electricity), while France has the second potential for windfarm after the UK and a very strong solar potential. Only targetting the level of renewable already attained in neighbouring countries would allow to decommission 30 to 40% of existing ailing nuclear powerplant. If France has had invested as much research and development to renewables as it has to nuclear, the country would be a leading producer and manufacturer of renewable as for example Danmark or Sweden.

Besides, France imports most of its uranium from poor African countries, mainly Niger, and the French company exploiting uranium is very careless, polluting the environment in Niger, and arming the health of the NIgerian people, while the country has not got the share of the true value of the mineral. We cannot call that sustainable and renewable development. The CO2 of nuclear power is effectively lower than hydrocarbure, but uranium mines emit a lot of CO2 for mining and transporting the minerals, as many mines generally do...

The new nuclear powerplant in building process in Flammanville is already a financial disaster as costing far more than the original budget and the delivery has been delayed by many years... this is the same that the UK is to build in Hinkley point...which is not a very clever idea...


Before judging Nicolas Hulot, I think it would be better to listen to a translated version of the 1 hour interview he gave this morning to a French radio, you will understand that he is not only the man who wanted to reduce nuclear share of electricity by 50%, which is by the way perfectly feasable and in a relatively swift way and has an overwhelming support in the French society (and was already voted by the previous National Assembly). Nicolas Hulot only talked about nuclear for one minute out of a 60 minutes interview. If you hear what he says, you will understand that his ideas resonate with what we can read on the ASIF blog, and I would not say I am personally a great supporter of Nicolas Hulot, even if he is a sincere and honest man with good environmental credentials, I think he should have not embarked in being part of Macron government, which was obviously to use Nicolas Hulot as a marketing tool, therefore doing a "rough" type of greenwashing, now "le roi est nu".
« Last Edit: August 28, 2018, 08:20:44 PM by bluesky »

bluesky

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1531 on: August 28, 2018, 07:50:22 PM »
France has the lowest CO2 per KW/h of any major economy in the developed world.  Exclusively due to France's Nuclear power capability.  Something Nicolas Hulot wanted to reduce by 50%.

Hulot is the kind of "environmentalist" who gives Climate Change a bad name.

The French Nuclear capability is absolutely perfect for EV overnight charging as it takes a lot of time to vary Nuclear power station output.

Hulot is a fanatic who self destructed over hunting laws.  By abandoning his post he walked away from actions on the Paris Accord which will ensure the long term survival of this wildlife he claims to love so much.

This is not the message the climate lobby needs.  It needs pragmatic and "grounded" people who can influence and drive solutions to the CO2 issue.  At this level of Government there is no place for crusading when that crusading will increase CO2 emissions. Germany is living this right now.

It seems really surreal that someone on ASIF could label Nicolas Hulot as a "fanatic".... and I will not add to the polemic further, please listen to a translated version of his interview this morning, it resonates to the common view on the ASIF blog, so saying that Nicolas Hulot is a fanatic is like saying that the mainstream ideas developed and supported on the ASIF are fanatic ideas…

Hulot did not resign on the hunting law, he already advised in June that he would make a decision by the end of the summer whether he would stay in the government or not. In his interview this morning he talked for a long time about his disagreement with the agricultural minister and the missed opportunity of re engineering agriculture from a highly intensive with high use of pesticides (one of the highest in the world, and pesticides consumption in France continues to increase year after years) to a sustainable agriculture in accordance with food security, health of the consumers and the farmers, (we could feel the arm of Monsanto/ Bayer behind), and with higher carbon intake, better biodiversity, less energy use and lower greenhouse gas emission, he explained that at length.
 I am not surprised he has resigned, I am surprised that he stayed more than a year in a government which lists sustainability, climate change, renewable energy, sustainable farming, and governing independently without the lobbyist pressure at the bottom of its actual but unofficial agenda...
« Last Edit: August 28, 2018, 08:19:23 PM by bluesky »

NeilT

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1532 on: August 28, 2018, 10:51:50 PM »
It seems really surreal that someone on ASIF could label Nicolas Hulot as a "fanatic"....

OK let me put it another way.

A marked lack of pragmatism.

Anyone who believes that you can remove 50% of your nuclear power and replace it with wind and solar (even with the sun that France has), when that Nuclear power delivers 76% of the power in the country without emitting CO2; has a marked lack of pragmatism.  Or has taken leave of his senses.

I know people don't like Nuclear power.  Personally I don't like the body count for failing to remove CO2 emissions.

Anyone who can lead the Paris Accord and then have a strong agenda to remove CO2 neutral power generation, is not thinking.  Forget correctly.

That, to me, is fanaticism.  It is the environmental fanaticism which leads to 100 million tonnes of CO2 being emitted by the UK for recycling glass.  Compared to just chucking it in landfill and making new glass.  Because it is "environmentally incorrect" not to recycle it.

Humans, as a race, really are digging their own grave.

So let us be polite.  A marked lack of pragmatism.
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bluesky

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1533 on: August 29, 2018, 12:19:13 AM »
It seems really surreal that someone on ASIF could label Nicolas Hulot as a "fanatic"....

OK let me put it another way.

A marked lack of pragmatism.

Anyone who believes that you can remove 50% of your nuclear power and replace it with wind and solar (even with the sun that France has), when that Nuclear power delivers 76% of the power in the country without emitting CO2; has a marked lack of pragmatism.  Or has taken leave of his senses.

I know people don't like Nuclear power.  Personally I don't like the body count for failing to remove CO2 emissions.

Anyone who can lead the Paris Accord and then have a strong agenda to remove CO2 neutral power generation, is not thinking.  Forget correctly.

That, to me, is fanaticism.  It is the environmental fanaticism which leads to 100 million tonnes of CO2 being emitted by the UK for recycling glass.  Compared to just chucking it in landfill and making new glass.  Because it is "environmentally incorrect" not to recycle it.

Humans, as a race, really are digging their own grave.

So let us be polite.  A marked lack of pragmatism.

It seems
1/ you have not read my Reply #1561, where I address some (not all, quite a few books were written) of the flaws of French nuclear power plants
2/ you still have not investigated further who is Nicolas Hulot, what he  is standing for and the fundamental reasons of his resignation, it requires to go beyond the very short summary of some of the international media (not all) and to delve a little bit into French politics
3/ You forget that nuclear is  not CO2 neutral considering the high emission of uranium mining and transportation, which is generally forgotten in the emission count.

I would advise you to acquire a translation of the book of the very well respected former French environmental minister (in a conservative government) Corine Lepage "la vérité sur le nucléaire"
And once you have read it, it will be time to start the discussion again… You will see that: 1/ French nuclear energy is extremely costly as many expenses have not been taken into account 2/replacing progressively most of it by renewable will save substantial amount of money and can be implemented quickly and smoothly, turning to real sustainable energy and reducing further French CO2 emission while eliminating the safety/environmental risk in case of large nuclear power plant accident, that even the official, state sponsored French nuclear safety authority, recognised that the risk still prevails. That is a lack of pragmatism no to recognise this undeniable fact.
3/you would be so kind as to read about French companies extraction of Uranium in Niger and other third world countries, how the uranium extraction is highly armful for  health of  the population and the environment
4/ Besides nuclear energy is very centralised and rely on a few 10th of power plant sites, which are more vulnerable to strong sun flare storm (like the one in Canada in March 1989), than intelligent micro grid with many renewable energy producers scattered over the country

Also, some issues currently in August with the heatwave, a testimony that climate change is not compatible with nuclear, you cannot cool down a reactor when the river is too hot, this is happening with higher frequency as heat waves in France have substantially increase in frequency and intensity during the past 15 years:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/france-nuclear-reactors-shut-down-edf-europe-heat-wave-a8477776.html
You cannot cool down a reactor also when there is a prolonged draught, of which frequency is to increase with climate change

While the flooding of Blayais' nuclear plant in 1999 will be worse and potentially very damageable during the next intense winter storm with sea level rise due to speed up, other plants on coast will face the same risk (Paluel, Gravelines and others…)
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inondation_de_la_centrale_nucléaire_du_Blayais_en_1999

French nuclear power plant are notoriously not safe against terrorist attacks:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/greenpeace-activists-crash-drone-french-nuclear-plant-134507827.html

Parliament enquiry on nuclear plants find great security and safety flaws:
https://www.dw.com/en/french-nuclear-power-plants-pose-a-grave-security-risk-lawmakers/a-44546734


« Last Edit: August 29, 2018, 11:46:30 AM by bluesky »

magnamentis

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1534 on: August 29, 2018, 03:48:09 AM »
@bluesky

thanks for the input but generally to "respect" anyone who reached the upper echelon of politics, especially but not only in france, this is considering the system and what it takes to get there, is something i have difficulties with.

if anyone is mentioned as respected who is part of the system and/or financially dependent on said system, this includes a major part of scientist in state services, immediately is raising the question:

respected by whom ?

mostly by their fellow conformists carrier hungry pals ?

even looking back in history, really new and worthy input often if not mostly came from those
who were not respected at all during their lifetime, only later when they were long dead (no further thread to the establishment)

this is a bit short, i know but then TLTR is also not welcome, hence this is for everyone who wants to consider and thing to the end themselves.

bluesky

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1535 on: August 29, 2018, 09:44:14 AM »
@bluesky

thanks for the input but generally to "respect" anyone who reached the upper echelon of politics, especially but not only in france, this is considering the system and what it takes to get there, is something i have difficulties with.

if anyone is mentioned as respected who is part of the system and/or financially dependent on said system, this includes a major part of scientist in state services, immediately is raising the question:

respected by whom ?

mostly by their fellow conformists carrier hungry pals ?

even looking back in history, really new and worthy input often if not mostly came from those
who were not respected at all during their lifetime, only later when they were long dead (no further thread to the establishment)

this is a bit short, i know but then TLTR is also not welcome, hence this is for everyone who wants to consider and thing to the end themselves.

Thank you for your reply, I do somewhat agree with your comment that being part of the "system", may stained "respectability", barely for some rare exception.
I am not supporting Lepage and I am not part of her political spectrum.
Corinne Lepage, was environment minister back in the mid 90ies, and since then she has turned down any ministerial and official political office, apart from beeing very temporarilly the vice president of a political party from which she quickly resigned and distance herself, and an MEP, where I think she had been quite diligent.
When she was an environment minister , an impossible job in France, she fought  hardly and (almost)successfully against the very powerfull nuclear lobby in order to decommission the surgenerator  SuperPhenix, refusing to sign off "imposed" law by her colleague ministers, SuperPhenix was one of the most dangerous typer of nuclear plant, that revealed to be a technological and  financial disaster and was finally decommissioned for ever one or two years after. I am not supporting her politically, but she wrote very informative books on nuclear energy, environment, and other subject, worth reading. You can respect someone with which you don't share all the views… She recently declared, in a polite way that the current Macron government was doing green washing, and had no intention at all to change the system the right way, and she considers more useful being outside of any governmental office trying to make thing evolve in accordance with the current environmental and climate change challenge, welcoming that Hulot finally resigned from a job that was giving fake environmental credential to the French government.
Before becoming an environment minister, she was already well known as a lawyer defending high profile environmental cases, e.g. she successfully  defended the Britany councils affected by the very extensive and damaging 1978's Amoco Cadiz oil spill, at a time it was not easy to win this kind of court case.
Lepage would agree with most of what is on this forum, that we should profoundly change our way of life, way to run economy, reduce our consumption and footprint to face the current challenge, as Hulot said yesterday very vocally during his resignation interview.
 This is not a bad thing to get  more known and somewhat respected people (again does not mean that I personally support them) onboard and vocal on this side, maybe this will help to narrow down the knowledge gap with the wider society, maybe more citizen would make the walk to change their way of life and the society at the same time... let's hope despite the huge challenge ahead.

Apologies, if I write TLTR, but I'd rather write long and argumentative article with rational basis, than short affirmation with no rational (not talking about you)
« Last Edit: August 29, 2018, 11:45:21 AM by bluesky »

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1536 on: September 02, 2018, 08:34:32 PM »
It's official (sort of) -  1.5 degrees is toast. To me it looks like 2 degrees is toast as well - given the need to increase the share of renewables in the energy mix by 2% a year while the average annual increase in the last twenty years was less than 0.2%.

A lot in the study about -ve emissions (BECCS and all that stuff). Even with that the Point of No Return is merely delayed.

Two sources:-

http://uk.businessinsider.com/global-warming-point-of-no-return-temperature-2018-8

Scientists calculated a 'point of no return' for dealing with climate change — and time is running out
Quote
The new study calculates that if the world's governments don't initiate a transition to clean energy sources by 2035 — meaning that the share of renewables starts to grow by at least 2% each year — we'll almost certainly pass that point of no return. ......
........Based on that model, the new study's authors figured out a potential "point of no return": the year 2035, unless the share of renewables were to start growing by 2% a year before then. That's an ambitious number, considering that from the late 1990s to 2017 (in about 20 years), the percentage of energy from renewables only grew a total of 3.6%.

and from the study itself at
https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/1085/2018/esd-9-1085-2018.pdf

Table 3. Safe Carbon Budget (in GtC since 2015) as a function of
threshold and safety probability β.
β                      0.5  0.67   0.9   0.95  Noise-free
Tmax = 1.5 K    247  198   107   69     233
Tmax = 2 K       492  424   298  245    469

(Note by me: The Carbon Countdown clock gives a carbon budget (high estimate) for 1.5 degrees of 108GT)

Quote
We have shown the constraints put on future emissions by
restricting GMST increase below 1.5 or 2 K, and the crucial
importance of the safety probability. Further (scientific and
political) debate is essential on what are the right values for
both temperature threshold and probability. Our findings are
sobering in light of the bold ambition in the Paris Agreement,
and add to the sense of urgency to act quickly before the PNR
has been crossed
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

magnamentis

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1537 on: September 02, 2018, 09:25:46 PM »
@bluesky

thanks for the input but generally to "respect" anyone who reached the upper echelon of politics, especially but not only in france, this is considering the system and what it takes to get there, is something i have difficulties with.

if anyone is mentioned as respected who is part of the system and/or financially dependent on said system, this includes a major part of scientist in state services, immediately is raising the question:

respected by whom ?

mostly by their fellow conformists carrier hungry pals ?

even looking back in history, really new and worthy input often if not mostly came from those
who were not respected at all during their lifetime, only later when they were long dead (no further thread to the establishment)

this is a bit short, i know but then TLTR is also not welcome, hence this is for everyone who wants to consider and thing to the end themselves.

Thank you for your reply, I do somewhat agree with your comment that being part of the "system", may stained "respectability", barely for some rare exception.
I am not supporting Lepage and I am not part of her political spectrum.
Corinne Lepage, was environment minister back in the mid 90ies, and since then she has turned down any ministerial and official political office, apart from beeing very temporarilly the vice president of a political party from which she quickly resigned and distance herself, and an MEP, where I think she had been quite diligent.
When she was an environment minister , an impossible job in France, she fought  hardly and (almost)successfully against the very powerfull nuclear lobby in order to decommission the surgenerator  SuperPhenix, refusing to sign off "imposed" law by her colleague ministers, SuperPhenix was one of the most dangerous typer of nuclear plant, that revealed to be a technological and  financial disaster and was finally decommissioned for ever one or two years after. I am not supporting her politically, but she wrote very informative books on nuclear energy, environment, and other subject, worth reading. You can respect someone with which you don't share all the views… She recently declared, in a polite way that the current Macron government was doing green washing, and had no intention at all to change the system the right way, and she considers more useful being outside of any governmental office trying to make thing evolve in accordance with the current environmental and climate change challenge, welcoming that Hulot finally resigned from a job that was giving fake environmental credential to the French government.
Before becoming an environment minister, she was already well known as a lawyer defending high profile environmental cases, e.g. she successfully  defended the Britany councils affected by the very extensive and damaging 1978's Amoco Cadiz oil spill, at a time it was not easy to win this kind of court case.
Lepage would agree with most of what is on this forum, that we should profoundly change our way of life, way to run economy, reduce our consumption and footprint to face the current challenge, as Hulot said yesterday very vocally during his resignation interview.
 This is not a bad thing to get  more known and somewhat respected people (again does not mean that I personally support them) onboard and vocal on this side, maybe this will help to narrow down the knowledge gap with the wider society, maybe more citizen would make the walk to change their way of life and the society at the same time... let's hope despite the huge challenge ahead.

Apologies, if I write TLTR, but I'd rather write long and argumentative article with rational basis, than short affirmation with no rational (not talking about you)

i myself have not problems with detailed posts which are a bit longer, it's just that at times i as well try to cover as many aspects as possible and the more one writes the higher the chance to get into petty bickering over wording, examples used or such.

that said i thank you for your detailed feedback and i hope i was able to point out that i have nothing agains a specific person, including the person you are talking about.

a general suspicion does not always have to be confirmed, i just know very well what exactly it takes to survive in the sharks basin of politics and related institutions and while some folks may simply got the drill how to manage all that without prostituting themselves (not (only) physically)
while it's really rare.

on the person in question i have nothing more to contribute than your feedback is duly noted and
respected as you obviously know the person well or better, thanks again.

NeilT

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1538 on: September 04, 2018, 12:25:30 AM »
Lepage would agree with most of what is on this forum, that we should profoundly change our way of life, way to run economy, reduce our consumption and footprint to face the current challenge, as Hulot said yesterday very vocally during his resignation interview.

You see there I am in total disagreement.  I believe we need to generate MORE power, twice as much or even 4 times as much, with CO2 neutral or negative production and USE that power to dig ourselves out of the mess we have got ourselves into.

Society, today, is such that telling us to revert to an earlier phase in our lives is going to get the speaker exactly nowhere but consigned to the margin of history.

We use fossil fuels in so many ways that the only possible way out of that is to transition, wholesale to a massive increase in CO2 neutral power.

Failing to understand that and continuing to promote 20th century failed environmental policies, which limit our ability to transition to a CO2 neutral or negative infrastructure, is going to be catastrophic for the liveable biosphere of this planet and is going to take a large chunk of the animal kingdom down with the Humans it impacts.

A person with good intentions, doing totally the wrong thing, is not a good thing.  It is a bad thing.

Telling people to reduce their energy footprint lets the governments off the hook.  We vote for these governments and we give them the power to do the things for us that we cannot do ourselves.  Namely produce a CO2 neutral power infrastructure with enough power for our needs.

So we vote for them, we pay for them and then we're supposed to let them tell us to fix the problem they are paid to fix by reducing our own consumption?

For good or ill we live in a consumer society.  The only way to get us out of this mess is to give us something clean to consume.  Even if it costs us a bit more.  Obama, finally, understood that.  It is not hard to understand.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1539 on: September 04, 2018, 03:24:35 PM »
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus)
9/4/18, 8:57 AM
Quote
Every nation in the world is meeting today in Bangkok to decide on the rulebook that will govern the Paris climate agreement—the main global effort to fight the biggest problem in history.

It's baffling to me why this process doesn't even make the news -- and hasn't for decades. https://mobile.twitter.com/unfccc/status/1036876560731529217
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1036961392258179072
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

bluesky

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1540 on: September 06, 2018, 01:40:41 AM »
Lepage would agree with most of what is on this forum, that we should profoundly change our way of life, way to run economy, reduce our consumption and footprint to face the current challenge, as Hulot said yesterday very vocally during his resignation interview.

You see there I am in total disagreement.  I believe we need to generate MORE power, twice as much or even 4 times as much, with CO2 neutral or negative production and USE that power to dig ourselves out of the mess we have got ourselves into.

Society, today, is such that telling us to revert to an earlier phase in our lives is going to get the speaker exactly nowhere but consigned to the margin of history.

We use fossil fuels in so many ways that the only possible way out of that is to transition, wholesale to a massive increase in CO2 neutral power.

Failing to understand that and continuing to promote 20th century failed environmental policies, which limit our ability to transition to a CO2 neutral or negative infrastructure, is going to be catastrophic for the liveable biosphere of this planet and is going to take a large chunk of the animal kingdom down with the Humans it impacts.

A person with good intentions, doing totally the wrong thing, is not a good thing.  It is a bad thing.

Telling people to reduce their energy footprint lets the governments off the hook.  We vote for these governments and we give them the power to do the things for us that we cannot do ourselves.  Namely produce a CO2 neutral power infrastructure with enough power for our needs.

So we vote for them, we pay for them and then we're supposed to let them tell us to fix the problem they are paid to fix by reducing our own consumption?

For good or ill we live in a consumer society.  The only way to get us out of this mess is to give us something clean to consume.  Even if it costs us a bit more.  Obama, finally, understood that.  It is not hard to understand.

Producing far more energy simply means indirectly consuming far more, this year the overshooting day was on the 1st of August, versus end of the year in early 70ies, overshooting the Western world with even more energy will back the overshooting day even earlier in the year, this is not sustainable… only the developing countries should be allowed to increase their energy output and consumption to get people out of poverty, while we should reduce significantly ours. But this is probably debated on other thread.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1541 on: September 06, 2018, 03:55:17 AM »
"EIA has great data this morning:
1) 2017 carbon emissions down 0.9%;
2) 2017 emissions 14% below 2005 levels;
3) Total carbon emissions from gas higher than coal;
4) Petroleum top emitter, responsible for 46% of total emissions.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/johnrhanger/status/1037323456226967552

U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions fell slightly in 2017 - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36953

(Cross-posted from Cars thread)
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jacksmith4tx

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1542 on: September 06, 2018, 05:23:21 AM »
U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions fell slightly in 2017 - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Two questions.
1) Now that the Trump admin. has completed their takeover of the DoE, EIA and EPA is there any reason to trust their numbers? I don't really trust the indivudal states to have the technical ability or the legal mandate to objectively report on their own. Do we have any confirming statistics from a international body?
2) It seems counter intuitive but how can a country keep setting fossil fuel production records, currently over 10.6 mbd, and at the same time reduce CO2 emissions? Did we divert this extra production to chemical and plastic production and therefore cap our emissions to less than the absolute numbers would indicate?
Guess we will have to wait a few years and see if the numbers check out. If it's anything like economic numbers (GDP,CPI) there are always revisions.

Update from another source (Houston Chronicle) adds this:
Quote
Less demand for electricity is also playing a role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions, the government reported.

Electricity sales last year were the lowest they've been since the economic recession in 2009. The government attributed last year's lower sales to milder weather. Cooler summers don't require as much energy for air conditioning and warmer winters lowers the need for heating.
Really? Was this last year exceptionally mild in the continental US? Wildfires, drought, floods, algae blooms and lots of record high temps seems like alternative facts eh?

Observation: I would think the electric utilities would be running ads offering 'EV' discounts to pump up the demand. There are lots of worries about EVs overloading the grid but that must be way off in the future. I noticed General Electric had their power generation division downgraded again today.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2018, 06:19:00 AM by jacksmith4tx »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1543 on: September 06, 2018, 06:45:07 PM »
Quote
2) It seems counter intuitive but how can a country keep setting fossil fuel production records, currently over 10.6 mbd, and at the same time reduce CO2 emissions?

Less coal, more natural gas, judging by the graph.
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SteveMDFP

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1544 on: September 06, 2018, 07:27:44 PM »
Quote
2) It seems counter intuitive but how can a country keep setting fossil fuel production records, currently over 10.6 mbd, and at the same time reduce CO2 emissions?

Less coal, more natural gas, judging by the graph.

Plus, the US is importing less crude as fracking production increases.

NeilT

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1545 on: September 06, 2018, 10:22:20 PM »
Quote
2) It seems counter intuitive but how can a country keep setting fossil fuel production records, currently over 10.6 mbd, and at the same time reduce CO2 emissions?

Less coal, more natural gas, judging by the graph.

This is a factor too.  I've known about it for a while but not looked it up any time recently.
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1546 on: September 07, 2018, 12:14:25 AM »
"EIA has great data this morning:
1) 2017 carbon emissions down 0.9%;
2) 2017 emissions 14% below 2005 levels;
3) Total carbon emissions from gas higher than coal;
4) Petroleum top emitter, responsible for 46% of total emissions.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/johnrhanger/status/1037323456226967552

Are methane leaks properly estimated and counted ?
"Methane emissions of this magnitude, per unit of natural gas consumed, produce radiative forcing over a 20-year time horizon comparable to the CO2 from natural gas combustion" So not really much progress in the power sector. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2018/06/20/science.aar7204

Are "imported" emissions counted?
"One-quarter of all global greenhouse gas emissions are caused by the manufacture of products destined for export – and are not accounted for in most nations’ climate policies." https://buyclean.org/media/2016/12/buyclean-execsummary-082718.pdf

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NevB

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1547 on: September 08, 2018, 02:54:19 AM »
There is news this morning (so far only on a Murdoch publication which I refuse to read or link) that Australia's new PM plans to renege on our pathetically weak Paris agreement.

The present PM is a dim witted Hillsong member that has asked us to pray for the present drought to end and was installed by far right Christians and the coal lobby.

In a practical sense this will make little difference as we will most likely meet our shamefully week target from the renewable projects already being constructed. This government is also highly likely to be annihilated in the election due early next year.

Australia's influence once was remarkably strong for such a small population but now we are nothing but outcasts and obstructionists I suspect one day a price will be paid.     

What this does do to our great shame is help legitimise Trump's action. I hope this won't encourage other nations to follow.

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1548 on: September 08, 2018, 01:12:51 PM »
https://www.mcc-berlin.net/fileadmin/data/clock/carbon_clock.htm

That Carbon Clock tells us that another deadline for 1.5 Degrees Celsius is passing us by today (just as Antarctic Sea Ice tests new record low extents).

The Carbon Clock also tells us that the most optimistic carbon budget for 1.5 degrees temperature rise gives us 32 months of BAU emissions.
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1549 on: September 08, 2018, 08:26:47 PM »
"EIA has great data this morning:
1) 2017 carbon emissions down 0.9%;
2) 2017 emissions 14% below 2005 levels;
3) Total carbon emissions from gas higher than coal;
4) Petroleum top emitter, responsible for 46% of total emissions.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/johnrhanger/status/1037323456226967552

Meaningless without a proper accounting for fugitive methane emissions from natural gas production, transportation and usage. That would destroy the case for natural gas as a bridge fuel, and the "pretty picture" that .gov in the US is trying to sell.