When thinking about future GHG emissions from coal it is important to take a holistic viewpoint, and to consider how countries like Indonesia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Pakistan and other Asian countries are trending (especially as China's Belt and Road Initiative shift coal consumption from China to its neighbors):
Title: "The Center of Coal Demand Keeps Shifting"
https://www.csis.org/analysis/center-coal-demand-keeps-shiftingExtract: "Coal accounted for 44 percent of energy-related CO2 emissions in 2016, even though it provided 27 percent of the world’s primary energy. The world needs to either curb coal use or develop technologies that limit carbon emissions from coal to meet its climate goals. In policy circles, this challenge is often framed around specific countries—the need for Germany, China, or the United States, for example, to reduce coal use. But this conversation, while essential, tends to underrate how much of the world’s coal challenge is now an Asian challenge. Unless Asia can find other energy sources to meet its needs, our efforts to curb CO2 emissions from coal will likely fail.
Asian demand is dominated by China, whose consumption has weakened in recent years (down 4 percent relative to the 2013 peak). But demand outside China is growing. In part, this is due to India, although its coal use is still less than a fourth of China’s. Among the countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), demand is falling in Australia, rising in Korea and remaining near all-time highs in Japan. Together with New Zealand, these countries make up 10 percent of regional coal demand—with modest growth.
The most dynamic part, however, is the rest: a group of countries that includes Indonesia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Pakistan, and others (ordered by 2017 demand). Demand in that sub-group rose 45 percent in the last decade. Soon, this region could surpass the European Union, whose demand was 13 percent higher in 2017. Indonesia now consumes more coal than Poland, and in a few years, it might overtake Germany. Indonesia and Vietnam together use more coal than South Africa, and Vietnam’s coal use has more than quadrupled since 2007. Malaysia is a latecomer, but its coal consumption has more than doubled in the last 10 years—it consumes more coal than the Czech Republic, Spain or the United Kingdom. And demand for energy in these countries keeps growing—energy use per capita is low, and electrification rates and electricity consumption are rising.
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This is the challenge in simple terms: while the world beyond Asia might reduce its coal consumption, demand keeps rising in Asia; and this demand growth is not concentrated only in China, or even China and India, but in several other emerging economies that see coal as an answer to their energy needs. The solution to this problem, however, is harder to see. The most common answer, to use more gas, is not quite working, and in several countries in Southeast Asia coal is being used because gas cannot compete or gas is being exported instead. Renewable energy holds great promise, but Southeast Asia needs to do more to scale up its renewable energy potential. China’s Belt and Road Initiative risks entrenching coal further, despite Beijing’s stated desire to maintain the initiative’s green and environmental credentials. Absent a more concerted effort to channel funds that support non-coal energy, the region will keep using more coal, and the world’s success elsewhere might easily be muted by Asia."