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Pmt111500

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1700 on: November 19, 2018, 06:31:26 PM »
Policies of China, Russia and Canada threaten 5C climate change, study finds

"New study shows China leading world to 5.1C of global warming, US to 4C and EU to 3.2C".

It's probably best not to estimate the effect of the policys of individual parties would have, on this thread. Commented about this on FB, but won't repeat it here since it could be divisive and such.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1701 on: November 19, 2018, 08:53:36 PM »
Re-post from the ASIF Humo(u)r thread, 20151202. Dangerous road to divisive places.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1702 on: November 19, 2018, 10:37:28 PM »
Bedtime story: LDC Group chair Gebru Jember Endalew claims 1.5°C is achievable.

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D-Penguin

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1703 on: November 19, 2018, 11:37:58 PM »
 D-Penguin, your common sense approach makes sense, but two counter-effects undermine it:
* The Earth is much warmer than it was at 280 ppm, so part of the warming effect has already been "equalized". 410 ppm does not necessarily mean more warming - it depends whether we have reached a new equilibrium already. (We haven't though).
* Natural sinks will draw down some of the CO2 in the atmosphere each year, so actual zero emissions will result in a slow downtrend of CO2 concentration. (But these sinks are shrinking and natural emissions are rising,, so we should hurry up).

So warming will continue only for a relatively short time. How long? That's beyond my pay grade.
OTOH, actual zero emissions is something that is very hard to achieve, so don't hold your breath.
[/quote]

Thank you very much for your reply to my post and directly addressing the issue that I raised.

However, I still have difficulty in understand the argument.

"The Earth is much warmer than it was at 280 ppm, so part of the warming effect has already been "equalized"..."

The sun continues to shine adding to the net global heat energy balance every day. So, how does the warming become equalized?

"Natural sinks will draw down some of the CO2 in the atmosphere each year..."

Does this mean that the level of atmospheric CO2 must be reduced by sinks to a level that will allow radiation of heat back into space to equate heat gain with heat loss and thereby stabilize the global heat balance?

Any answer(s)/reference(s) my questions would be much appreciated.

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1704 on: November 20, 2018, 01:49:54 AM »
The sun continues to shine adding to the net global heat energy balance every day. So, how does the warming become equalized?

As a body heats up it emits more infrared radiation, so as the Earth heats up it emits more infrared radiation (energy) - some of that increase escapes to space, offsetting the greater amount of heat (energy) trapped by the increased levels of greenhouse gases. At each level of greenhouse gases (and albedo) there is a temperature level that balances energy in / energy out.

This explains it quite well:
https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect.html

"The increased amounts of greenhouse gases human activities are adding to the atmosphere have upset the balance that has been in place since the end of the last ice age. Adding more greenhouse gases decreases the amount of infrared radiation energy leaving the atmosphere. To get the energy back in balance, the surface of the Earth has to warm up, so that it will emit more infrared energy, some of which will leave the atmosphere and compensate for the effect of the added greenhouse gases. Thus, the greenhouse effect, which is essential for creating the climate for life on Earth, is also responsible for the Earth getting warmer than it was before we started burning large amounts of fossil fuels."

D-Penguin

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1705 on: November 20, 2018, 02:19:09 AM »
Posted by: rboyd
« on: Today at 01:49:54 AM »
"At each level of greenhouse gases (and albedo) there is a temperature level that balances energy in / energy out."


Ok. I get that so far and thanks for your reply.

So, at what CO2 level will the atmosphere allow sufficient  infra red radiation to leave the atmosphere and re-establish a heat exchange balance?
« Last Edit: November 20, 2018, 02:27:33 AM by D-Penguin »

sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1706 on: November 20, 2018, 05:10:40 AM »
Re: "at what CO2 level will the atmosphere allow sufficient  infra red radiation to leave the atmosphere and re-establish a heat exchange balance?"

280 ppm interglacial, 180 glacial.

sidd

oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1707 on: November 20, 2018, 07:21:14 AM »
Posted by: rboyd
« on: Today at 01:49:54 AM »
"At each level of greenhouse gases (and albedo) there is a temperature level that balances energy in / energy out."


Ok. I get that so far and thanks for your reply.

So, at what CO2 level will the atmosphere allow sufficient  infra red radiation to leave the atmosphere and re-establish a heat exchange balance?
The question should be at what CO2 level and what temperature.
For the warming already achieved, of around 1 degC, I think the equilibrium CO2 level is around 350ppm, but there are people here that can answer that much better than me.

sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1708 on: November 20, 2018, 08:32:32 AM »
Temperature is roughly Eemian now, CO2 then was 280 ppm

sidd

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1709 on: November 20, 2018, 08:55:34 AM »
Yes, and sea level will follow. Levermann (2013):
It has no timescale, just temperature correlated to SLR.
http://www.pnas.org/content/110/34/13745.full.pdf
Fig 1E attached.
Quote
Paleo-Evidence
To compare the model results with past sea-level anomalies for
the temperature range up to 4 °C, we focus on three previous periods for which the geological record provides reasonable constraints on warmer climates and higher sea levels than preindustrial: the middle Pliocene, marine isotope stage 11, and the LIG (Fig. 1E).



Bedtime story: LDC Group chair Gebru Jember Endalew claims 1.5°C is achievable.

*ttps://youtu.be/wuwvqF14qfc
A whopping 61 views today. Why was this a bedtime story? To reach 1.5°C would require a revised 1.1°C target.
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D-Penguin

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1710 on: November 20, 2018, 12:52:09 PM »
Re: "at what CO2 level will the atmosphere allow sufficient  infra red radiation to leave the atmosphere and re-establish a heat exchange balance?"

280 ppm interglacial, 180 glacial.

sidd

Thank you very much for your precise answer. It is the answer that I expected based on a 'commonsense' and 'logical'  interpretation of the excellent work undertaken by the scientists and referenced by the IPCC to produce their 'CO2 Pathways' to 'stable temperature targets'.

HOWEVER, THE INTERPRETATION OF THE SCIENCE BY THE IPCC CLAIMS THAT ACHIEVING ZERO EMISSIONS WITHIN GIVEN TIME FRAMES WILL STABILIZE TEMPERATURES AT GIVEN TEMPERATURES TARGETS.

So, my 'commonsense' and 'logic' says that the IPCC Pathways are not a correct interpretation of the science.

Indeed, even if CO2 emissions were reduced to zero today at 410 ppm it would not create a heat exchange balance and AGW would continue with temperatures increasing beyond the temperature targets set out in the IPCC Pathways.

Again, my 'commonsense' and 'logic' tells me that the only solution to AGW is CO2 removal from the atmosphere with conversion of the CO2 to a 'useful product' and/or sequestration into a 'permanent' carbon sink. How else would it be possible to achieve a heat energy exchange balance until CO2 levels are reduced to 280 ppm ?

Either I am missing something here or the IPCC is misleading the global decision makers.

sid - PLEASE let me know if my 'commonsense' and 'logic' or the IPCC interpretation of the science is correct.

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1711 on: November 20, 2018, 07:14:29 PM »
The IPCC is dealing with a specific date - 2100, and short-term climate sensitivity. If CO2 is not removed from the atmosphere then we will be dependent upon very long-term processes, such as rock weathering, and temperatures could continue to rise past 2100. They may also be using an estimate of climate sensitivity that is too low (see Hansen et. al.)

One possible area of quick action is methane, as it has an average 14 year residency in the atmosphere (and 100 times the effect of CO2 during that 14 years). So if we cut methane levels rapidly it will have a significant impact within a relatively short period. This would require very large changes to agricultural practices and reductions in natural gas fracking and general usage (the methane leaks from the well site and the distribution network).

The IPCC does not take into account "longer-term" processes, such as sea ice and cloud albedo changes, reductions in natural sinks and increases in natural sources, and fresh-water lens issues - there is evidence for all of these already becoming an issue, which can be found in the other sections of this site. Such effects are why climate sensitivity increases with global temperature.

sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1712 on: November 20, 2018, 09:44:31 PM »
1) The IPCC RCP are representative concentration pathways, not emission pathways.

2) for temperature profile after emissions cease a goo graph to look at is RCP 2.6. Briefly, if we stopped emission today, then

a) we are still in radiative imbalace so the earth will warm, decreasing radiative imbalance

b) CO2 drawdown will decrease the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, decreasing radiative imbalance

a) and b) together govern the time when the temperature has risen and atm. CO2 has dropped to the point of radiative balance. This timescale is about a decade or two.

I repeat, look at RCP2.6  Realclimate had a discussion.

sidd

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1713 on: November 21, 2018, 01:47:54 AM »
I'd like to resurrect a post by Cid_Yama from last month entitled:
IPCC Admits End of the World as we know it

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=post;quote=177206;topic=12.550;last_msg=180556

Cid had posted this in the Arctic Methane thread but I thought it might get a little more well deserved attention over here.

Terry
edit/

It's a fairly long read, but filled with lots of meat for discussion.

« Last Edit: November 21, 2018, 01:57:23 AM by TerryM »

D-Penguin

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1714 on: November 21, 2018, 03:54:45 AM »
1) The IPCC RCP are representative concentration pathways, not emission pathways.

2) for temperature profile after emissions cease a goo graph to look at is RCP 2.6. Briefly, if we stopped emission today, then

a) we are still in radiative imbalace so the earth will warm, decreasing radiative imbalance
Sorry, I do not get this. If the earth warms how does the radiative balance decrease?
b) CO2 drawdown will decrease the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, decreasing radiative imbalance
Decreasing carbon sinks?
a) and b) together govern the time when the temperature has risen and atm. CO2 has dropped to the point of radiative balance. This timescale is about a decade or two.
10 to 20 years to reduce CO2 from 410 ppm to the radiative balance point of 280 ppm? An average annual reduction of 7 ppm for 20 years and all the time the radiative imbalance is increasing with all the related feedback mechanisms?
I repeat, look at RCP2.6  Realclimate had a discussion.
Looked at the graphs and read the comments. The graphs and comments do not seem to take radiative imbalance into account. What the dickens am I missing here?
sidd

My comments in red within the above quote from sidd.

sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1715 on: November 21, 2018, 05:28:36 AM »
Re: " If the earth warms how does the radiative balance decrease?"

Let heat coming in from shortwave = Qdot_in, heat going out Qdot_out

right now Qdot_out is less than Qdot_in, 

deltaQdot=Qdot_in - Qdot_out

is greater than zero

a) Qdot_out goes up at T^4

so as earth (actually, top of atmosphere) warms, Qdot_out goes up very quickly and deltaQdot decreases

b)Qdot_out increases as atmospheric CO2 decreases (keeping a bunch of other things the same ...) so again deltaQdot decreases

Re: "Decreasing carbon sinks?"

not considered important over decadal scale

Re: "10 to 20 years to reduce CO2 from 410 ppm to the radiative balance point of 280 ppm? "

No. decadal scale is for peak temperature after emission cease. And then the earth keeps warming for a decade or two, but because of the T^4 factor and CO2 drawdown earth will achieve radiative balance and a peak temperature.. The peak temperature is dictated by cumulative emission. Then temperature will decrease as CO2 leaves the atmosphere.

Earth will remain warmer forawhile until oceanic turnover timescale(1kyr) and continental weathering timescale (10-100Kyr)

I should mention radiative imbalance above preindustrial is about 2.3W/m^2 and because we have already warmed, current imbalance is around 1W/m^2

My guess is that with RCP2.6 we will remain in Eemian for 40Kyr or so ...

sidd
« Last Edit: November 21, 2018, 05:56:31 AM by sidd »

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1716 on: November 21, 2018, 06:49:47 AM »
Re: ∞.
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oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1717 on: November 21, 2018, 07:14:25 AM »
Quote
a) we are still in radiative imbalance so the earth will warm, decreasing radiative imbalance
Sorry, I do not get this. If the earth warms how does the radiative balance decrease?
D-Penguin, if this is not intuitively clear I think you must read about the basics of black body radiation, and how bodies of any size reach heat equilibrium with their surroundings.
You need to be able to answer this simple but analogous question - if I turn on a light bulb in a room, why does the temperature of the room not rise indefinitely?
Otherwise the discussion will go nowhere, IMHO.

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1718 on: November 21, 2018, 07:23:02 AM »
An open letter to Danish universities: Let us show the way towards a more ambitious climate agenda
http://sciencenordic.com/open-letter-danish-universities-let-us-show-way-towards-more-ambitious-climate-agenda
Quote
The universities have a particularly heavy responsibility with regard to the implementation of an ambitious climate agenda, for three main reasons.

Firstly, researchers contribute to a particularly high degree of carbon emissions, especially by using air transport to travel to conferences. High emissions offer an equally large potential for reducing the researchers’ climate footprint.

Secondly, scientific authority is a key topic in the fight against climate skepticism. Researchers cannot expect to be taken seriously in the debate on climate change if they do not themselves implement the measures they propose. We have to put our own house in order first if we want others to listen.

Thirdly, the universities are ideally suited to lead the fight against climate change by developing and testing innovative, interdisciplinary and evidence-based measures for reducing carbon emissions. If new solutions are not developed at the universities, where else should they come from?
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wolfpack513

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1719 on: November 22, 2018, 03:45:09 AM »
The POTUS just mocked global warming because it's going to be cold in the Northeast on Thanksgiving.  Sorry for the fatalism but the leader of the highest GDP country in the world thinks AGW is a joke.  We have what ~10 years in our carbon budget left?  We're so screwed.

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1720 on: November 22, 2018, 06:47:20 AM »
When will the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise join? The Confederation of Finnish Industries (EK) just did.

EK joins the CLC climate initiative: Climate policy ambition must be raised to correspond to the 1.5 C target
https://ek.fi/en/current/2018/11/20/ek-joins-the-clc-climate-initiative-climate-policy-ambition-must-be-raised-to-correspond-to-the-1-5-c-target/

https://clc.fi/en/supporters-for-net-zero-greenhouse-gas-emissions-initiative/
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Pmt111500

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1721 on: November 22, 2018, 06:50:43 AM »
The POTUS just mocked global warming because it's going to be cold in the Northeast on Thanksgiving.  Sorry for the fatalism but the leader of the highest GDP country in the world thinks AGW is a joke.  We have what ~10 years in our carbon budget left?  We're so screwed.
I'd say the II iraqi war during King George B "the Stupider" was the the turning point, but yeah, you pretty much got it there.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2018, 08:21:16 AM by Pmt111500 »
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1722 on: November 22, 2018, 06:54:56 AM »
The Climate Emergency Plan 3.00 PM CET 24 November
https://climateemergencyplan.confetti.events/
Quote
If we are to stay below 1,5 °C global warming, emissions have to peak no later than 2020. That is less than 800 days from now. Emissions must also be cut by half by 2030, and to zero by 2050. We need an immediate emergency response by policymakers, businesses and civil society, aimed at an unprecedented transformation of all sectors of society. The Club of Rome’s Climate Emergency Plan, presented by Anders Wijkman, outlines an immediate course of action for policymakers. This will be the point of departure for a solutions-oriented seminar that advances the conversation on how to demand and create real change. We will learn about innovative technical platforms, the transition from conventional growth economics, how to successfully create political change and the growing power of youth movements.

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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1723 on: November 26, 2018, 04:08:10 PM »
THE CLUB OF ROME CLIMATE EMERGENCY PLAN.
Out now, have at it:
http://www.clubofrome.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Climate_Emergency_Plan_Final.pdf
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Juan C. García

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Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1725 on: November 27, 2018, 08:46:23 PM »
Quote
Countries vowed to cut carbon emissions. They aren’t even close to their goals, U.N. report finds
https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/11/27/countries-vowed-cut-carbon-emissions-they-arent-even-close-their-goals-un-report-finds/?utm_term=.572dd797394a&wpisrc=al_environment__alert-hse&wpmk=1

United Nations Environment "Emissions Gap Report 2018":
https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018

I tried to read it.

Still saying +1.5 can be done as long as emissions peak by 2030?

Optimism defying reality?
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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1726 on: November 27, 2018, 08:56:12 PM »

United Nations Environment "Emissions Gap Report 2018":
https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018

I tried to read it.

Still saying +1.5 can be done as long as emissions peak by 2030?

Optimism defying reality?



Possibly to keep all the noses firmly pressed against the grindstone until the grindstone explodes?
Terry :(

Juan C. García

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1727 on: November 28, 2018, 12:01:42 AM »
Still saying +1.5 can be done as long as emissions peak by 2030?

Optimism defying reality?

For sure they are more optimistic than what reality is.
That is what has being happening with "UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond".
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1728 on: November 28, 2018, 07:26:38 PM »
This is not enough, of course.  But it’s significant.  And it shows action can be taken without directive from the very top — in fact, action can be taken in spite of adverse directions from the top.

America's Pledge (@AmericasPledge)
11/28/18, 1:09 PM
“It turns out that even without Trump's support, we will still meet our obligations under the Paris accord.” Thanks to cities, states, and businesses, the U.S. is still on track to meet #AmericasPledge.
https://twitter.com/americaspledge/status/1067842811041472512

Sublinks on the tweet are to several interviews by Dr. Michael Mann.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Niall Dollard

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1729 on: December 03, 2018, 05:58:48 PM »
David Attenborough's powerful speech to World Leaders at COP24.

'Continuation of civilisation is in your hands,'


Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1730 on: December 04, 2018, 07:34:29 PM »
Oh, Poland! ::)

Poland Literally Filled an International Climate Change Conference With Coal
Quote
International climate talks are off to an inauspicious start in Poland.

They began on Sunday in Katowice, a small city in the heart of Polish coal country, and are already a strong contender for the most tone-deaf meeting in 24 iterations of the UN climate change conference known as the conference of the parties (COP). After picking coal companies to sponsor the talks, the Polish government decided to deck the halls of its exhibition center with piles of coal in a move that is beyond parody.

Confounded conference goers have been tweeting images and videos of the coal display as well as coal-related tchotchkes, including coal soap (it’s clean coal, get it?). A coal miner band greeted attendees after they walked in from air thick with coal-fire power plant haze. And in his opening remarks, Polish President Andrzej Duda said that coal “does not contradict the protection of the climate and the progress of climate protection.”

Look, I get it. Poland mines a lot of coal. It gets 78 percent of its power from coal. It has a vested interest in keeping coal alive from an economic and political standpoint, and this conference gives the government a chance to lay that vision out.

But in a world governed by uncompromising physics, burning coal is just not viable any longer. It is among the most carbon-polluting forms of energy. The bombshell Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report released earlier this year shows that to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius without overshooting, coal use will have to fall 97 percent by 2050.

If the world is serious about climate change, coal needs to be treated as a dead man walking. That means focusing on just transitions for miners and coal plant operators, in addition to rapidly phasing out the use of coal. ...
https://earther.gizmodo.com/poland-literally-filled-an-international-climate-change-1830820392/

Cross-posted in Coal thread.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1731 on: December 04, 2018, 07:53:50 PM »
Sorry! :( 
(The good news is: Democrats will be in control of the House come January, which will help rein in the prez.)

Climate change: 'Trump effect' threatens Paris pact
Quote
But this new report. from the Institute of International and European Affairs, suggests that President Trump's words and deeds are causing "very real damage" to the Paris agreement.  The author outlines three key areas where the Trump effect is having an impact.

Under the President, US federal environmental regulations on oil, gas and coal have been rolled back and, as a result, some of the dirtiest fossil fuel projects have become more attractive to investors.

Goodwill damaged

The author says that the US withdrawal from Paris has created the "moral and political cover for others to follow suit", citing the examples of Russia and Turkey - which have both declined to ratify the Paris deal.  The US pull-out has also "severely damaged goodwill at international negotiations", something that's crucial to progress in these talks here in Poland.

When it comes to fossil fuels, the author cites the example of investments in the coal sector by 36 US banks, which saw a decline of 38% in 2016 after the Paris agreement was signed, but which rose by 6% in 2017 after President Trump was sworn in.

"This is not a coincidence, there is something underpinning these trends and that's political signals," said Joseph Curtin, a senior fellow at the IIEA.  "The Paris agreement sent a shiver down the spine of institutional investors globally and made them question if they were exposed to stranded assets and whether these political leaders were really serious about climate change."

"There's absolutely no doubt that the Trump effect has created a sense of uncertainty in terms of the political commitment to achieve anything close to a two degree C target."
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46384828
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1732 on: December 04, 2018, 08:16:41 PM »
World Bank Commits $200 Billion Over Five Years For Climate Action
Quote
The World Bank Group announced on Monday a new set of climate targets for 2021-25 and that it was doubling its current five-year investments to around $200 billion in support of countries taking ambitious climate action.

One of the world’s largest sources of funding for developing countries, the World Bank Group announced on Monday that it would increase its current five-year investments to around $200 billion, with a particular focus on projects for climate adaptation and resilience.

“Climate change is an existential threat to the world’s poorest and most vulnerable. These new targets demonstrate how seriously we are taking this issue, investing and mobilizing $200 billion over five years to combat climate change,” said World Bank Group President, Jim Yong Kim. “We are pushing ourselves to do more and to go faster on climate and we call on the global community to do the same. This is about putting countries and communities in charge of building a safer, more climate-resilient future.” ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/03/world-bank-commits-200-billion-over-five-years-for-climate-action/
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1733 on: December 05, 2018, 07:24:19 PM »
The UN is trying to get climate risks built into Government and Private Sector financial institutions. Here is a report on how each G20 country is getting along.

In theory, such a system would tend to block investments with high climate risks, and encourage investments with environmental benefits, i.e. bend capital resource allocation..

I give extracts from 2 countries, where the Federal Government is actively trying to go backwards while just about everybody else is trying to go forwards (even if at a snail's pace), namely Australia and the USA. Written in May 2018, it was before the new President of Brazil started to put a Mack Truck through everything.

When the shit really hits the fan, we will have the comfort of having known how to stop.

https://www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/resources/publication-pdfs/cisl-tcfd-report-2018.pdf
Sailing from different harbours
G20 approaches to implementing the
recommendations of the Task Force on
Climate-related Financial Disclosures


AUSTRALIA
Quote
Political and regulatory engagement
On 17 February 2017, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority
(APRA) warned that climate change carries a material risk to the
financial system, and urged companies to start adapting. At the
Insurance Council of Australia’s Annual Forum, the Authority’s
executive board member Geoff Summerhayes said that: “While
climate risks have been broadly recognised, they have often been
seen as a future problem or a non-financial problem. […] This is no
longer the case. Some climate risks are distinctly ‘financial’ in nature.
Many of these risks are foreseeable, material and actionable now”
(Summerhayes, 2017).
In July 2017, the APRA, in a statement of the Sustainable Insurance
Forum, defined climate change as one of the most serious challenges
for the insurance sector and the wider financial system, and called for
the implementation of TCFD recommendations (SIF, 2017).
In November 2017, the Council of Financial Regulators (CFR), which
comprises the Treasury, Reserve Bank of Australia, the Australian
Prudential Regulation Authority and the Australian Securities and
Investments Commission, set up a Climate Change Working Group
to consider and co-ordinate actions to address the financial risks of
changing climate, and society’s response to such changes, for the
Australian financial system.
NOTE - As of today the Aussie Govt is trying to railroad through Parliament taxpayer subsidies for new cola-fired power stations

THE USA
Quote
Although as of 2010 the US Securities Act and Regulation S-K –
Commission Guidance Regarding Disclosure Related to Climate
specifies how climate change should be considered and disclosed
in the context of securities disclosure, we have been unable to find
engagement with the TCFD at the federal level. However, there has
been regulatory discourse on the TCFD recommendations at the
state level.


Political and regulatory engagement
In July 2017, the California Department of Insurance (CDI) and
Washington State Office of the Insurance Commissioner (OIC), in
a statement of the Sustainable Insurance Forum, defined climate
change as one of the most serious challenges for the insurance
sector and the wider financial system, and welcomed the TCFD
recommendations, calling for their implementation (SIF, 2017).
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1734 on: December 07, 2018, 07:10:00 PM »
World Bank Commits $200 Billion Over Five Years For Climate Action

Sorry but $40 Billion per year amounts to next to nothing in a $80,000 Billion Economy.

0.05% in fact

$17 trillion+ to bail out the bankers, a couple of hundred billion for climate change. Shows what the real priorities are. Also tiny compared to the US "defence" budget.

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1735 on: December 07, 2018, 07:14:07 PM »
Global carbon dioxide emissions rose almost 3% in 2018

Global emissions estimated to be up 2.7% in 2018 (after up 1.7% in 2017).
- China up 4.6% (27% of emissions)
- US up 2.5% (13% of emissions)
- EU28 down 0.7% (9% of emissions)
- India up 6.3% (6.3% of emissions)
- Rest of the world up 1.8% (44.7% of emissions)

India's coal and oil usage growing at 5% per year, at the stage of economic development that all previous countries heavily utilized coal to drive growth. At current trends, India's emissions with be greater than the EU28 by the mid-2020s at the latest.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/carbon-pollution-increase-1.4934096

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/18/files/GCP_CarbonBudget_2018.pdf
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 10:19:42 PM by rboyd »

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1736 on: December 08, 2018, 07:51:14 AM »
Maybe better placed here?
I think Sasja Beslik is wrong about limiting warming to 1.5°C but close to reality on sustainable finance.

The quick fix for climate change.
https://twitter.com/SasjaBeslik/status/1069717425279643648


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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1737 on: December 08, 2018, 07:52:48 AM »
Greta Thunberg at the COP24 Action Hub

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1738 on: December 08, 2018, 09:36:09 AM »
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/12/07/global-alignment-climate-plans-pushed-2041-un-draft/

Nothing new then. "FU future generations", says the intergovernmental body of officials. "You're just an expense, and we wish half of you would be dead already," says the body and continues, "we want to see you fight against each other for the sports aren't good enough entertainment"
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1739 on: December 08, 2018, 07:00:31 PM »
And some more "nothing new"

http://www.ipsnews.net/2018/12/poor-progress-no-finance-commitments-cop24-katowice/
Poor Progress and No Finance Commitments at COP24 in Katowice
Quote
KATOWICE, Poland, Dec 8 2018 (IPS) - Implementation of the Paris Agreement on climate change is in limbo as developed countries remain noncommittal to financial obligations at the ongoing negotiations in Katowice, Poland.
Professor Seth Osafo, the Advisor to the Africa Group of Negotiators (AGN), said today, Dec. 8, that his colleagues from the developed world were shifting goals to put the burden of financing the implementation of the Paris Agreement on the private sector............

.....Augustine Njamshi, the executive director of the Bioresources Development and Conservation Programme in Cameroon, said: “We have no option, but to use all available means to make things happen.”  “A man who is drowning has no luxury of a choice. Africa is drowning and we have no choice, other than using all means to salvage the continent,” he told IPS.

Nasr said that the African negotiators have been forced to send messages through informal discussions with colleagues from the developed world to salvage the situation.“We are just telling them that if we do not have the components that we have asked for, the package will not be for Africa, and Africa will not be part of it,” he said.
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1740 on: December 08, 2018, 07:48:55 PM »
Meanwhile tomorrow at COP 24 there will be a session on finance. Will the moolah be forthcoming to do something real? It feels very much like this conference is being held in the Last Chance Saloon.

Quote
INFORMATION NOTE
High-Level Mandated Events
United Nations Climate Change Conference
Katowice Poland, 2 – 14 December 2018
III. 3rd Biennial Ministerial High-Level Dialogue on Climate Finance - Translating climate finance needs into action
The 3rd biennial ministerial high-level dialogue on climate finance will be convened in the afternoon of Monday, 10 December from 15:00 to 18:00 hrs.
The dialogue on climate finance aims to provide a clear vision on how to ensure further progress on the mobilization of climate finance and will focus on concrete efforts and initiatives on mobilizing finance and investments to translate climate finance needs into action and on enhancing developing countries’ access to climate finance. Against this background, initiatives that have successfully mobilized climate finance and enhanced cooperation on this issue, are expected to be presented. In line with the invitation of the COP, the dialogue will pay particular attention to the issue of enhancing access to climate finance. High-level multi-stakeholder panel discussions will take place in two distinct sessions followed by a last session consisting of an open discussion in plenary where Ministers will be invited to provide their views on the various topics to be addressed. During the dialogue the Standing Committee on Finance (SCF) will present the findings of the 2018 biennial assessment and overview of climate finance flows.


__________________________________________________________________________
Quote
The word "Moolah" might have an Indian origin. Moolah, in Hindi, is the root cause of something and it is quite possible that it represents money (the root cause for the troubles of many people and a cog that drives the entire system).
_________________________________________________________________________
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wdmn

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1741 on: December 09, 2018, 01:25:56 AM »
3 years since Paris

9 years since Copenhagan

21 years since Kyoto

29 years since Noordwijk

30 years since James Hansen presented his models to congress

50 years since the American Petroleum Institute acknowledged there would be "serious worldwide environmental changes" as a result of increased industrial scale use of fossil fuels

53 years since the President's Science Advisory Committee wrote an executive report on the
consequences of increasing atmospheric CO2

122 years since Svante Arrhenius, Swedish chemist and future nobel laureate predicted that industrial scale use of fossil fuels would warm the climate

2018: Highest global GHG emissions ever
100 billion barrels of oil per day reached for the first time
China now has higher per capita emissions than the EU
India is now increasing its use of gas and oil by 5% per year

What's going on here?
 :-\

graph courtesy of Bob Kopp @bobkopp
« Last Edit: December 09, 2018, 02:40:57 AM by wdmn »

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1742 on: December 09, 2018, 06:49:54 AM »
Minor adjustments while anticipating another decade of rising emissions.

http://www.climatechangeleadership.se/poland-cop-coal-climate/
Quote
However to the dedicated few intimately engaged in the process, Katowice is where the fine words of Paris are translated into something more concrete. Without a rule book, or something similar, Paris remains as little more than a rhetorical aspiration. More worrying still, an anaemic rule book risks sustaining a political appetite for ongoing delay and only minor adjustments to business as usual. If the international community is to respond with purpose to the unequivocal evidence linking ongoing fossil fuel use with climate impacts, it needs a rule book informed by the science and aligned with our explicit Paris commitments.

https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/1071362251381063682
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wdmn

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1743 on: December 09, 2018, 08:19:11 AM »
How can scientists and policy makers still pretend like we could avoid 1.5 or 2C with a straight face?

graph source: https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/1070962799550062592

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1744 on: December 09, 2018, 08:52:39 AM »
Hope fades.......

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46496967
Climate change: COP24 fails to adopt key scientific report
Quote
Attempts to incorporate a key scientific study into global climate talks in Poland have failed.

The IPCC report on the impacts of a temperature rise of 1.5C, had a significant impact when it was launched last October.

Scientists and many delegates in Poland were shocked as the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Kuwait objected to this meeting "welcoming" the report.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1745 on: December 10, 2018, 11:25:55 AM »
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1746 on: December 10, 2018, 11:57:17 AM »
Michael Mann on that.

Makes all the stuff on the politics threads seem sort of irrelevant and immaterial?
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1747 on: December 10, 2018, 12:09:36 PM »
I wouldn't know.
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1748 on: December 10, 2018, 01:45:07 PM »
Even the money-men are starting to run scared. The statements below are very stark for people of that ilk.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/10/tackle-climate-or-face-financial-crash-say-worlds-biggest-investors

Tackle climate or face financial crash, say world's biggest investors
UN summit urged to end all coal burning and introduce substantial taxes on emissions

Quote
Global investors managing $32tn issued a stark warning to governments at the UN climate summit on Monday, demanding urgent cuts in carbon emissions and the phasing out of all coal burning. Without these, the world faces a financial crash several times worse than the 2008 crisis, they said.

The investors include some of the world’s biggest pension funds, insurers and asset managers and marks the largest such intervention to date. They say fossil fuel subsidies must end and substantial taxes on carbon be introduced.

Ministers arrive at the UN climate summit in Katowice, Poland, on Monday for its crucial second week, when the negotiations on turning the vision of the Paris agreement into reality reach a critical point, with finance for fighting global warming a key area of dispute.

“The long-term nature of the challenge has, in our view, met a zombie-like response by many,” said Chris Newton, of IFM Investors which manages $80bn and is one of the 415 groups that has signed the Global Investor Statement. “This is a recipe for disaster as the impacts of climate change can be sudden, severe and catastrophic.”

Investment firm Schroders said there could be $23tn of global economic losses a year in the long term without rapid action. This permanent economic damage would be almost four times the scale of the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis. Standard and Poor’s rating agency also warned leaders: “Climate change has already started to alter the functioning of our world.”
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1749 on: December 10, 2018, 02:45:58 PM »
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.