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Author Topic: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond  (Read 358421 times)

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1700 on: November 15, 2018, 01:32:05 PM »
MCC has updated their carbon clock according to SR15:
https://www.mcc-berlin.net/en/research/co2-budget.html

What a relief.  ::)
But does one believe the special report when it apparently says (according to the MCC) ?
Quote
The Special Report of October 2018 presents new figures: The atmosphere can absorb no more than 420 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 if we are to stay below the 1.5°C threshold.

So do we have 9 years of BAU left (as MCC say) ?
Quote
However, since around 42 Gt of CO2 is emitted globally every year—the equivalent of 1332 tonnes per second—this budget is expected to be used up in just over nine years.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1701 on: November 15, 2018, 02:14:21 PM »
A face displaying eyes glancing upward, indicating an eye-roll. This is used to show disdain, contempt or boredom about a topic.
https://emojipedia.org/face-with-rolling-eyes/

One can also express it like MCC did in their tweet:
Quote
A few more years left for effective climate protection, but in terms of climate policy, we look back at a lost decade

Every day is a day lost. Not overly optimistic.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2018, 02:20:29 PM by Sleepy »
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1702 on: November 15, 2018, 04:46:14 PM »
A face displaying eyes glancing upward, indicating an eye-roll. This is used to show disdain, contempt or boredom about a topic.
https://emojipedia.org/face-with-rolling-eyes/

One can also express it like MCC did in their tweet:
Quote
A few more years left for effective climate protection, but in terms of climate policy, we look back at a lost decade

Every day is a day lost. Not overly optimistic.

Is there an emoji to tell the reader that one is asking totally pointless questions?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1703 on: November 15, 2018, 05:29:47 PM »
Isn't that typically British?
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Pmt111500

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1704 on: November 15, 2018, 06:19:37 PM »
MCC has updated their carbon clock according to SR15:

So do we have 9 years of BAU left (as MCC say) ?
Rather we're at 9 years overshoot (Copenhagen, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). But that's just me and my skis and ice skates talking
« Last Edit: November 15, 2018, 07:21:00 PM by Pmt111500 »
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1705 on: November 15, 2018, 08:05:58 PM »
MCC has updated their carbon clock according to SR15:

So do we have 9 years of BAU left (as MCC say) ?
Rather we're at 9 years overshoot (Copenhagen, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). But that's just me and my skis and ice skates talking
It just got a few years worse.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/15/brazil-foreign-minister-ernesto-araujo-climate-change-marxist-plot
Quote
Brazil's new foreign minister believes climate change is a Marxist plot
Ernesto Araujo has called climate science ‘dogma’ and bemoaned the ‘criminalisation’ of red meat, oil and heterosexual sex

The 51-year-old diplomat – who has never served as an overseas ambassador – claims unnamed leftist politicians have hijacked environmentalism to serve as a tool for global domination.

“This dogma has been used to justify increasing the regulatory power of states over the economy and the power of international institutions on the nation states and their populations, as well as to stifle economic growth in democratic capitalist countries and to promote the growth of China,” he wrote in a post last month.

His (The President's) pick as agriculture minister is the head of the farming lobby, Tereza Cristina Dias, who conservationists have nicknamed the “Muse of Poison” due to her enthusiastic support for relaxing controls on agro-toxins.

She and her colleagues are said to be gutting the responsibilities of the environment ministry before its new head is appointed. The environment institution is likely to be so subservient that insiders joke there will soon be two agriculture ministries in Brazil.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1706 on: November 15, 2018, 08:27:09 PM »
So do we have 9 years of BAU left (as MCC say) ?
Rather we're at 9 years overshoot (Copenhagen, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). But that's just me and my skis and ice skates talking
Not just yours.
A face displaying eyes glancing upward, indicating an eye-roll. This is used to show disdain, contempt or boredom about a topic.
https://emojipedia.org/face-with-rolling-eyes/

One can also express it like MCC did in their tweet:
Quote
A few more years left for effective climate protection, but in terms of climate policy, we look back at a lost decade

Every day is a day lost. Not overly optimistic.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1707 on: November 16, 2018, 05:06:53 PM »
Whoops.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/16/climate-change-champions-still-pursuing-devastating-policies-new-study-reveals
Quote
Policies of China, Russia and Canada threaten 5C climate change, study finds
China, Russia and Canada’s current climate policies would drive the world above a catastrophic 5 C of warming by the end of the century, according to a study that ranks the climate goals of different countries.

The US and Australia are only slightly behind with both pushing the global temperature rise dangerously over 4C above pre-industrial levels says the paper, while even the EU, which is usually seen as a climate leader, is on course to more than double the 1.5C that scientists say is a moderately safe level of heating.

The study, published on Friday in the journal Nature Communications, assesses the relationship between each nation’s ambition to cut emissions and the temperature rise that would result if the world followed their example.

The aim of the paper is to inform climate negotiators as they begin a two-year process of ratcheting up climate commitments, which currently fall far short of the 1.5-to-2C goal set in France three years ago.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07223-9.pdf
Quote
Warming assessment of the bottom-up
Paris Agreement emissions pledges
Yann Robiou du Pont 1 & Malte Meinshausen 1,2


Under the bottom-up architecture of the Paris Agreement, countries pledge Nationally
Determined Contributions (NDCs). Current NDCs individually align, at best, with divergent
concepts of equity and are collectively inconsistent with the Paris Agreement. We show that
the global 2030-emissions of NDCs match the sum of each country adopting the least stringent
of five effort-sharing allocations of a well-below 2 °C-scenario. Extending such
a self-interested bottom-up aggregation of equity might lead to a median 2100-warming of
2.3 °C. Tightening the warming goal of each country’s effort-sharing approach to aspirational
levels of 1.1 °C and 1.3 °C could achieve the 1.5 °C and well-below 2 °C-thresholds, respectively.
This new hybrid allocation reconciles the bottom-up nature of the Paris Agreement
with its top-down warming thresholds and provides a temperature metric to assess NDCs.
When taken as benchmark by other countries, the NDCs of India, the EU, the USA and China
lead to 2.6 °C, 3.2 °C, 4 °C and over 5.1 °C warmings, respectively
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D-Penguin

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1708 on: November 17, 2018, 02:16:42 AM »
Re: " prefer not to comment on a paper on Climate Change that is 40 years old"

Perhaps you are aware of a calculation which improves or overturns MacIntyre ?

sidd

FluxEngine: A Flexible Processing System for Calculating Atmosphere–Ocean Carbon
Dioxide Gas Fluxes and Climatologies
JAMIE D. SHUTLER , et al... in final form 22 June 2015

A more realistic Model for given parameters and variables.

Why do you ask for scientific references to substantiate logic and commonsense?

Are you of the opinion that any of the IPCC Pathway temperatures are now achievable and sustainable without removal of CO2 from the atmosphere combined with sequestration?

AGW began with CO2 at 280 ppm. What is your reasoning that AGW will stop if tomorrow CO2 emissions cease at 410 ppm?

sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1709 on: November 17, 2018, 05:39:00 AM »
Pacala now claims we can suck CO2 out of atmosphere at 100$/ton or less

https://e360.yale.edu/features/negative-emissions-is-it-feasible-to-remove-co2-from-the-air

sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1710 on: November 17, 2018, 07:42:38 AM »
Why do you ask for scientific references to substantiate logic and commonsense?
Maybe because your commonsense has been corrected since your first post in here, a month ago?

You are too busy finding an enemy (in earlier posts) and therefore you are your own. Finding and fighting enemies is deeply rooted in our culture. We need to step out of that mindset if we ever want to solve these issues. Young children do not have that:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2890461/
Quote
Anthropocentrism is not an initial step in conceptual development, but is instead an acquired perspective, one that emerges between 3 and 5 years of age in children raised in urban environments.

We truly are our own enemies.
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1711 on: November 17, 2018, 11:38:10 AM »
Pacala now claims we can suck CO2 out of atmosphere at 100$/ton or less

https://e360.yale.edu/features/negative-emissions-is-it-feasible-to-remove-co2-from-the-air

sidd
We are currently emitting circa 42 billion tons of CO2 per annum, of which about 20 billion will become part of our atmosphere.

So, if Pacala is right, to suck out just this year's atmospheric CO2 increase out of the atmosphere would cost -
US$ 100 x 20 billion = US$ 2 trillion?

And does $100 per tonne include putting it somewhere?
And where do you put 20 billion tonnes of CO2 (or 5 billion tonnes of carbon) per annum ?

ps:- If my arithmetic is wrong please correct it.
pps: I have read the article and I agree with much of it except the direct capture stuff. "We have the technology, we can rebuild it (the planet) !"
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Archimid

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1712 on: November 17, 2018, 11:48:20 AM »
Quote
And where do you put 20 billion tonnes of CO2 (or 5 billion tonnes of carbon) per annum ?

Back into the ground I guess.

In a my imaginary utopia that CO2 is sent to Mars to start terraforming Mars instead of "venusforming" the Earth.

Imagination is free, might as well deceive myself with it.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

D-Penguin

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1713 on: November 18, 2018, 04:10:40 AM »
Why do you ask for scientific references to substantiate logic and commonsense?
Maybe because your commonsense has been corrected since your first post in here, a month ago?

You are too busy finding an enemy (in earlier posts) and therefore you are your own. Finding and fighting enemies is deeply rooted in our culture. We need to step out of that mindset if we ever want to solve these issues. Young children do not have that:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2890461/
Quote
Anthropocentrism is not an initial step in conceptual development, but is instead an acquired perspective, one that emerges between 3 and 5 years of age in children raised in urban environments.

We truly are our own enemies.

Is it not one of the purposes of this forum to learn from the knowledge of others? You will also note that I acknowledged my mistake and expressed my appreciation for the correction.

The point that I made in my first posting, not withstanding the incorrect inference that I referenced in the IPCC Interim Report, remains unanswered.
viz
The IPCC Pathways determined by the reduction of CO2 emissions to zero over different time scales to stabilize global temperatures is misleading and dangerous. Is it not the  expressed responsibility of the IPCC to advise, on an inter-governmental basis, the options and consequences of policy to avoid  catastrophic global warming?

The point that I made in following postings was that if tomorrow CO2 emissions were reduced to zero, this would not prevent the continuing rise in global temperatures. When invited to substantiate this statement, I replied that the application of logic and commonsense was sufficient.
viz
AGW began with CO2 at 280 ppm. What is your reasoning that AGW will stop if tomorrow CO2 emissions cease at 410 ppm?

To me, it just sounded rather churlish to ask for a scientific justification of the above statement. However, if I am mistaken in my 'commonsense' approach, I would be very happy to be corrected and thereby increase my knowledge of the AGW problem.

Your reference to 'Anthropocentrism' is uncalled for and inflammatory. I am surprised that the Moderators allowed your posting to stand.

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1714 on: November 18, 2018, 04:28:27 AM »
Good bye.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1715 on: November 18, 2018, 07:00:42 AM »
A bit more on why we are our own enemies.
Peter Kalmus:
https://twitter.com/ClimateHuman/status/1063612976639295488
Quote
Over almost 2 decades and with $6 trillion the U.S. could have solved climate breakdown.
Quote
Evil is stupid. And look where we are now. Come on, humans. Burning fossil fuel causes climate breakdown. So let's stop burning the stuff!
Quote
I don't think many people realize the opportunity cost of the oil wars, in terms of time and money wasted and the connection to climate.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1716 on: November 18, 2018, 10:47:16 PM »
Pacala now claims we can suck CO2 out of atmosphere at 100$/ton or less

https://e360.yale.edu/features/negative-emissions-is-it-feasible-to-remove-co2-from-the-air

sidd

The Times They Are A Changin'
Pacala 2004:
Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies
Quote
Humanity already possesses the fundamental scientific, technical, and industrial know-how to solve the carbon and climate problem for the next half-century. A portfolio of technologies now exists to meet the world’s energy needs over the next 50 years and limit atmospheric CO2 to a trajectory that avoids a doubling of the preindustrial concentration. Every element in this portfolio has passed beyond the laboratory bench and demonstration project; many are already implemented somewhere at full industrial scale. Although no element is a credible candidate for doing the entire job (or even half the job) by itself, the portfolio as a whole is large enough that not every element has to be used.
Fig1 is outdated too, we are over those figures.
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oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1717 on: November 19, 2018, 04:11:34 PM »
Quote
The point that I made in following postings was that if tomorrow CO2 emissions were reduced to zero, this would not prevent the continuing rise in global temperatures. When invited to substantiate this statement, I replied that the application of logic and commonsense was sufficient.
viz
AGW began with CO2 at 280 ppm. What is your reasoning that AGW will stop if tomorrow CO2 emissions cease at 410 ppm?
D-Penguin, your common sense approach makes sense, but two counter-effects undermine it:
* The Earth is much warmer than it was at 280 ppm, so part of the warming effect has already been "equalized". 410 ppm does not necessarily mean more warming - it depends whether we have reached a new equilibrium already. (We haven't though).
* Natural sinks will draw down some of the CO2 in the atmosphere each year, so actual zero emissions will result in a slow downtrend of CO2 concentration. (But these sinks are shrinking and natural emissions are rising,, so we should hurry up).

So warming will continue only for a relatively short time. How long? That's beyond my pay grade.
OTOH, actual zero emissions is something that is very hard to achieve, so don't hold your breath.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1718 on: November 19, 2018, 05:31:08 PM »
Policies of China, Russia and Canada threaten 5C climate change, study finds

"New study shows China leading world to 5.1C of global warming, US to 4C and EU to 3.2C".

A good read, as is the academic paper it reports on. This is of course based on somewhat conservative estimates of climate sensitivity so things are probably worse than these numbers. The rich country numbers are flattered by being based upon production, rather than consumption, emissions. The EU would be significantly worse based on consumption emissions (e.g. cheap stuff from China etc.).

The next step is the outright acceptance of geo-engineering/ghg removal technologies as the only answer (just like the financiers, fossil fuel lobbies and other elites want).

The only way real action will happen is with a climate emergency that can be utilized for the best outcomes (e.g. disaster capitalism and not wasting a crisis) by those in power - who tend to have the biggest part of their wealth and lifestyles dependent upon ever-lasting growth. As in 2008, they will strive to have everyone else pay the costs and feel the pain of the transition/collapse. It wont work for them in the long-term, but they don't want to believe that.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2018, 05:46:41 PM by rboyd »

Pmt111500

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1719 on: November 19, 2018, 06:31:26 PM »
Policies of China, Russia and Canada threaten 5C climate change, study finds

"New study shows China leading world to 5.1C of global warming, US to 4C and EU to 3.2C".

It's probably best not to estimate the effect of the policys of individual parties would have, on this thread. Commented about this on FB, but won't repeat it here since it could be divisive and such.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1720 on: November 19, 2018, 08:53:36 PM »
Re-post from the ASIF Humo(u)r thread, 20151202. Dangerous road to divisive places.
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1721 on: November 19, 2018, 10:37:28 PM »
Bedtime story: LDC Group chair Gebru Jember Endalew claims 1.5°C is achievable.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1722 on: November 19, 2018, 11:37:58 PM »
 D-Penguin, your common sense approach makes sense, but two counter-effects undermine it:
* The Earth is much warmer than it was at 280 ppm, so part of the warming effect has already been "equalized". 410 ppm does not necessarily mean more warming - it depends whether we have reached a new equilibrium already. (We haven't though).
* Natural sinks will draw down some of the CO2 in the atmosphere each year, so actual zero emissions will result in a slow downtrend of CO2 concentration. (But these sinks are shrinking and natural emissions are rising,, so we should hurry up).

So warming will continue only for a relatively short time. How long? That's beyond my pay grade.
OTOH, actual zero emissions is something that is very hard to achieve, so don't hold your breath.
[/quote]

Thank you very much for your reply to my post and directly addressing the issue that I raised.

However, I still have difficulty in understand the argument.

"The Earth is much warmer than it was at 280 ppm, so part of the warming effect has already been "equalized"..."

The sun continues to shine adding to the net global heat energy balance every day. So, how does the warming become equalized?

"Natural sinks will draw down some of the CO2 in the atmosphere each year..."

Does this mean that the level of atmospheric CO2 must be reduced by sinks to a level that will allow radiation of heat back into space to equate heat gain with heat loss and thereby stabilize the global heat balance?

Any answer(s)/reference(s) my questions would be much appreciated.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1723 on: November 20, 2018, 01:49:54 AM »
The sun continues to shine adding to the net global heat energy balance every day. So, how does the warming become equalized?

As a body heats up it emits more infrared radiation, so as the Earth heats up it emits more infrared radiation (energy) - some of that increase escapes to space, offsetting the greater amount of heat (energy) trapped by the increased levels of greenhouse gases. At each level of greenhouse gases (and albedo) there is a temperature level that balances energy in / energy out.

This explains it quite well:
https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect.html

"The increased amounts of greenhouse gases human activities are adding to the atmosphere have upset the balance that has been in place since the end of the last ice age. Adding more greenhouse gases decreases the amount of infrared radiation energy leaving the atmosphere. To get the energy back in balance, the surface of the Earth has to warm up, so that it will emit more infrared energy, some of which will leave the atmosphere and compensate for the effect of the added greenhouse gases. Thus, the greenhouse effect, which is essential for creating the climate for life on Earth, is also responsible for the Earth getting warmer than it was before we started burning large amounts of fossil fuels."

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1724 on: November 20, 2018, 02:19:09 AM »
Posted by: rboyd
« on: Today at 01:49:54 AM »
"At each level of greenhouse gases (and albedo) there is a temperature level that balances energy in / energy out."


Ok. I get that so far and thanks for your reply.

So, at what CO2 level will the atmosphere allow sufficient  infra red radiation to leave the atmosphere and re-establish a heat exchange balance?
« Last Edit: November 20, 2018, 02:27:33 AM by D-Penguin »

sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1725 on: November 20, 2018, 05:10:40 AM »
Re: "at what CO2 level will the atmosphere allow sufficient  infra red radiation to leave the atmosphere and re-establish a heat exchange balance?"

280 ppm interglacial, 180 glacial.

sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1726 on: November 20, 2018, 07:21:14 AM »
Posted by: rboyd
« on: Today at 01:49:54 AM »
"At each level of greenhouse gases (and albedo) there is a temperature level that balances energy in / energy out."


Ok. I get that so far and thanks for your reply.

So, at what CO2 level will the atmosphere allow sufficient  infra red radiation to leave the atmosphere and re-establish a heat exchange balance?
The question should be at what CO2 level and what temperature.
For the warming already achieved, of around 1 degC, I think the equilibrium CO2 level is around 350ppm, but there are people here that can answer that much better than me.

sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1727 on: November 20, 2018, 08:32:32 AM »
Temperature is roughly Eemian now, CO2 then was 280 ppm

sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1728 on: November 20, 2018, 08:55:34 AM »
Yes, and sea level will follow. Levermann (2013):
It has no timescale, just temperature correlated to SLR.
http://www.pnas.org/content/110/34/13745.full.pdf
Fig 1E attached.
Quote
Paleo-Evidence
To compare the model results with past sea-level anomalies for
the temperature range up to 4 °C, we focus on three previous periods for which the geological record provides reasonable constraints on warmer climates and higher sea levels than preindustrial: the middle Pliocene, marine isotope stage 11, and the LIG (Fig. 1E).



Bedtime story: LDC Group chair Gebru Jember Endalew claims 1.5°C is achievable.

*ttps://youtu.be/wuwvqF14qfc
A whopping 61 views today. Why was this a bedtime story? To reach 1.5°C would require a revised 1.1°C target.
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D-Penguin

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1729 on: November 20, 2018, 12:52:09 PM »
Re: "at what CO2 level will the atmosphere allow sufficient  infra red radiation to leave the atmosphere and re-establish a heat exchange balance?"

280 ppm interglacial, 180 glacial.

sidd

Thank you very much for your precise answer. It is the answer that I expected based on a 'commonsense' and 'logical'  interpretation of the excellent work undertaken by the scientists and referenced by the IPCC to produce their 'CO2 Pathways' to 'stable temperature targets'.

HOWEVER, THE INTERPRETATION OF THE SCIENCE BY THE IPCC CLAIMS THAT ACHIEVING ZERO EMISSIONS WITHIN GIVEN TIME FRAMES WILL STABILIZE TEMPERATURES AT GIVEN TEMPERATURES TARGETS.

So, my 'commonsense' and 'logic' says that the IPCC Pathways are not a correct interpretation of the science.

Indeed, even if CO2 emissions were reduced to zero today at 410 ppm it would not create a heat exchange balance and AGW would continue with temperatures increasing beyond the temperature targets set out in the IPCC Pathways.

Again, my 'commonsense' and 'logic' tells me that the only solution to AGW is CO2 removal from the atmosphere with conversion of the CO2 to a 'useful product' and/or sequestration into a 'permanent' carbon sink. How else would it be possible to achieve a heat energy exchange balance until CO2 levels are reduced to 280 ppm ?

Either I am missing something here or the IPCC is misleading the global decision makers.

sid - PLEASE let me know if my 'commonsense' and 'logic' or the IPCC interpretation of the science is correct.

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1730 on: November 20, 2018, 07:14:29 PM »
The IPCC is dealing with a specific date - 2100, and short-term climate sensitivity. If CO2 is not removed from the atmosphere then we will be dependent upon very long-term processes, such as rock weathering, and temperatures could continue to rise past 2100. They may also be using an estimate of climate sensitivity that is too low (see Hansen et. al.)

One possible area of quick action is methane, as it has an average 14 year residency in the atmosphere (and 100 times the effect of CO2 during that 14 years). So if we cut methane levels rapidly it will have a significant impact within a relatively short period. This would require very large changes to agricultural practices and reductions in natural gas fracking and general usage (the methane leaks from the well site and the distribution network).

The IPCC does not take into account "longer-term" processes, such as sea ice and cloud albedo changes, reductions in natural sinks and increases in natural sources, and fresh-water lens issues - there is evidence for all of these already becoming an issue, which can be found in the other sections of this site. Such effects are why climate sensitivity increases with global temperature.

sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1731 on: November 20, 2018, 09:44:31 PM »
1) The IPCC RCP are representative concentration pathways, not emission pathways.

2) for temperature profile after emissions cease a goo graph to look at is RCP 2.6. Briefly, if we stopped emission today, then

a) we are still in radiative imbalace so the earth will warm, decreasing radiative imbalance

b) CO2 drawdown will decrease the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, decreasing radiative imbalance

a) and b) together govern the time when the temperature has risen and atm. CO2 has dropped to the point of radiative balance. This timescale is about a decade or two.

I repeat, look at RCP2.6  Realclimate had a discussion.

sidd

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1732 on: November 21, 2018, 01:47:54 AM »
I'd like to resurrect a post by Cid_Yama from last month entitled:
IPCC Admits End of the World as we know it

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=post;quote=177206;topic=12.550;last_msg=180556

Cid had posted this in the Arctic Methane thread but I thought it might get a little more well deserved attention over here.

Terry
edit/

It's a fairly long read, but filled with lots of meat for discussion.

« Last Edit: November 21, 2018, 01:57:23 AM by TerryM »

D-Penguin

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1733 on: November 21, 2018, 03:54:45 AM »
1) The IPCC RCP are representative concentration pathways, not emission pathways.

2) for temperature profile after emissions cease a goo graph to look at is RCP 2.6. Briefly, if we stopped emission today, then

a) we are still in radiative imbalace so the earth will warm, decreasing radiative imbalance
Sorry, I do not get this. If the earth warms how does the radiative balance decrease?
b) CO2 drawdown will decrease the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, decreasing radiative imbalance
Decreasing carbon sinks?
a) and b) together govern the time when the temperature has risen and atm. CO2 has dropped to the point of radiative balance. This timescale is about a decade or two.
10 to 20 years to reduce CO2 from 410 ppm to the radiative balance point of 280 ppm? An average annual reduction of 7 ppm for 20 years and all the time the radiative imbalance is increasing with all the related feedback mechanisms?
I repeat, look at RCP2.6  Realclimate had a discussion.
Looked at the graphs and read the comments. The graphs and comments do not seem to take radiative imbalance into account. What the dickens am I missing here?
sidd

My comments in red within the above quote from sidd.

sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1734 on: November 21, 2018, 05:28:36 AM »
Re: " If the earth warms how does the radiative balance decrease?"

Let heat coming in from shortwave = Qdot_in, heat going out Qdot_out

right now Qdot_out is less than Qdot_in, 

deltaQdot=Qdot_in - Qdot_out

is greater than zero

a) Qdot_out goes up at T^4

so as earth (actually, top of atmosphere) warms, Qdot_out goes up very quickly and deltaQdot decreases

b)Qdot_out increases as atmospheric CO2 decreases (keeping a bunch of other things the same ...) so again deltaQdot decreases

Re: "Decreasing carbon sinks?"

not considered important over decadal scale

Re: "10 to 20 years to reduce CO2 from 410 ppm to the radiative balance point of 280 ppm? "

No. decadal scale is for peak temperature after emission cease. And then the earth keeps warming for a decade or two, but because of the T^4 factor and CO2 drawdown earth will achieve radiative balance and a peak temperature.. The peak temperature is dictated by cumulative emission. Then temperature will decrease as CO2 leaves the atmosphere.

Earth will remain warmer forawhile until oceanic turnover timescale(1kyr) and continental weathering timescale (10-100Kyr)

I should mention radiative imbalance above preindustrial is about 2.3W/m^2 and because we have already warmed, current imbalance is around 1W/m^2

My guess is that with RCP2.6 we will remain in Eemian for 40Kyr or so ...

sidd
« Last Edit: November 21, 2018, 05:56:31 AM by sidd »

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1735 on: November 21, 2018, 06:49:47 AM »
Re: ∞.
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oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1736 on: November 21, 2018, 07:14:25 AM »
Quote
a) we are still in radiative imbalance so the earth will warm, decreasing radiative imbalance
Sorry, I do not get this. If the earth warms how does the radiative balance decrease?
D-Penguin, if this is not intuitively clear I think you must read about the basics of black body radiation, and how bodies of any size reach heat equilibrium with their surroundings.
You need to be able to answer this simple but analogous question - if I turn on a light bulb in a room, why does the temperature of the room not rise indefinitely?
Otherwise the discussion will go nowhere, IMHO.

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1737 on: November 21, 2018, 07:23:02 AM »
An open letter to Danish universities: Let us show the way towards a more ambitious climate agenda
http://sciencenordic.com/open-letter-danish-universities-let-us-show-way-towards-more-ambitious-climate-agenda
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The universities have a particularly heavy responsibility with regard to the implementation of an ambitious climate agenda, for three main reasons.

Firstly, researchers contribute to a particularly high degree of carbon emissions, especially by using air transport to travel to conferences. High emissions offer an equally large potential for reducing the researchers’ climate footprint.

Secondly, scientific authority is a key topic in the fight against climate skepticism. Researchers cannot expect to be taken seriously in the debate on climate change if they do not themselves implement the measures they propose. We have to put our own house in order first if we want others to listen.

Thirdly, the universities are ideally suited to lead the fight against climate change by developing and testing innovative, interdisciplinary and evidence-based measures for reducing carbon emissions. If new solutions are not developed at the universities, where else should they come from?
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wolfpack513

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1738 on: November 22, 2018, 03:45:09 AM »
The POTUS just mocked global warming because it's going to be cold in the Northeast on Thanksgiving.  Sorry for the fatalism but the leader of the highest GDP country in the world thinks AGW is a joke.  We have what ~10 years in our carbon budget left?  We're so screwed.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1739 on: November 22, 2018, 06:47:20 AM »
When will the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise join? The Confederation of Finnish Industries (EK) just did.

EK joins the CLC climate initiative: Climate policy ambition must be raised to correspond to the 1.5 C target
https://ek.fi/en/current/2018/11/20/ek-joins-the-clc-climate-initiative-climate-policy-ambition-must-be-raised-to-correspond-to-the-1-5-c-target/

https://clc.fi/en/supporters-for-net-zero-greenhouse-gas-emissions-initiative/
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Pmt111500

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1740 on: November 22, 2018, 06:50:43 AM »
The POTUS just mocked global warming because it's going to be cold in the Northeast on Thanksgiving.  Sorry for the fatalism but the leader of the highest GDP country in the world thinks AGW is a joke.  We have what ~10 years in our carbon budget left?  We're so screwed.
I'd say the II iraqi war during King George B "the Stupider" was the the turning point, but yeah, you pretty much got it there.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2018, 08:21:16 AM by Pmt111500 »
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1741 on: November 22, 2018, 06:54:56 AM »
The Climate Emergency Plan 3.00 PM CET 24 November
https://climateemergencyplan.confetti.events/
Quote
If we are to stay below 1,5 °C global warming, emissions have to peak no later than 2020. That is less than 800 days from now. Emissions must also be cut by half by 2030, and to zero by 2050. We need an immediate emergency response by policymakers, businesses and civil society, aimed at an unprecedented transformation of all sectors of society. The Club of Rome’s Climate Emergency Plan, presented by Anders Wijkman, outlines an immediate course of action for policymakers. This will be the point of departure for a solutions-oriented seminar that advances the conversation on how to demand and create real change. We will learn about innovative technical platforms, the transition from conventional growth economics, how to successfully create political change and the growing power of youth movements.

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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1742 on: November 26, 2018, 04:08:10 PM »
THE CLUB OF ROME CLIMATE EMERGENCY PLAN.
Out now, have at it:
http://www.clubofrome.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Climate_Emergency_Plan_Final.pdf
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Juan C. García

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Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1744 on: November 27, 2018, 08:46:23 PM »
Quote
Countries vowed to cut carbon emissions. They aren’t even close to their goals, U.N. report finds
https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/11/27/countries-vowed-cut-carbon-emissions-they-arent-even-close-their-goals-un-report-finds/?utm_term=.572dd797394a&wpisrc=al_environment__alert-hse&wpmk=1

United Nations Environment "Emissions Gap Report 2018":
https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018

I tried to read it.

Still saying +1.5 can be done as long as emissions peak by 2030?

Optimism defying reality?
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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1745 on: November 27, 2018, 08:56:12 PM »

United Nations Environment "Emissions Gap Report 2018":
https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018

I tried to read it.

Still saying +1.5 can be done as long as emissions peak by 2030?

Optimism defying reality?



Possibly to keep all the noses firmly pressed against the grindstone until the grindstone explodes?
Terry :(

Juan C. García

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1746 on: November 28, 2018, 12:01:42 AM »
Still saying +1.5 can be done as long as emissions peak by 2030?

Optimism defying reality?

For sure they are more optimistic than what reality is.
That is what has being happening with "UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond".
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1747 on: November 28, 2018, 07:26:38 PM »
This is not enough, of course.  But it’s significant.  And it shows action can be taken without directive from the very top — in fact, action can be taken in spite of adverse directions from the top.

America's Pledge (@AmericasPledge)
11/28/18, 1:09 PM
“It turns out that even without Trump's support, we will still meet our obligations under the Paris accord.” Thanks to cities, states, and businesses, the U.S. is still on track to meet #AmericasPledge.
https://twitter.com/americaspledge/status/1067842811041472512

Sublinks on the tweet are to several interviews by Dr. Michael Mann.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Niall Dollard

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1748 on: December 03, 2018, 05:58:48 PM »
David Attenborough's powerful speech to World Leaders at COP24.

'Continuation of civilisation is in your hands,'


Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1749 on: December 04, 2018, 07:34:29 PM »
Oh, Poland! ::)

Poland Literally Filled an International Climate Change Conference With Coal
Quote
International climate talks are off to an inauspicious start in Poland.

They began on Sunday in Katowice, a small city in the heart of Polish coal country, and are already a strong contender for the most tone-deaf meeting in 24 iterations of the UN climate change conference known as the conference of the parties (COP). After picking coal companies to sponsor the talks, the Polish government decided to deck the halls of its exhibition center with piles of coal in a move that is beyond parody.

Confounded conference goers have been tweeting images and videos of the coal display as well as coal-related tchotchkes, including coal soap (it’s clean coal, get it?). A coal miner band greeted attendees after they walked in from air thick with coal-fire power plant haze. And in his opening remarks, Polish President Andrzej Duda said that coal “does not contradict the protection of the climate and the progress of climate protection.”

Look, I get it. Poland mines a lot of coal. It gets 78 percent of its power from coal. It has a vested interest in keeping coal alive from an economic and political standpoint, and this conference gives the government a chance to lay that vision out.

But in a world governed by uncompromising physics, burning coal is just not viable any longer. It is among the most carbon-polluting forms of energy. The bombshell Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report released earlier this year shows that to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius without overshooting, coal use will have to fall 97 percent by 2050.

If the world is serious about climate change, coal needs to be treated as a dead man walking. That means focusing on just transitions for miners and coal plant operators, in addition to rapidly phasing out the use of coal. ...
https://earther.gizmodo.com/poland-literally-filled-an-international-climate-change-1830820392/

Cross-posted in Coal thread.
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