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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1800 on: August 08, 2019, 10:24:06 PM »
A Fossil Fuel Baron Just Bought USA Today

The wonderful "free" press, now even more owned by fossil fuel and military interests ... and I thought their climate change coverage could not get even weaker. If you don't like the new coverage just buy it, seems to be the ethos of the plutocrats that block meaningful policy action on climate change.

Quote
A fossil fuel baron is now an executive at the largest regional newspaper network in the United States.

On August 5, Gannett—the owner of USA Today and regional newspapers in cities such as Detroit, Indianapolis, Nashville, Phoenix and Des Moines—merged with GateHouse Media.

GateHouse, a digital news network with bureaus in cities such as Austin, Eugene, Beach, and Newport, is owned by an investment firm called New Media Investment Group. owned in turn by Wes Edens’ New Fortress Investment Group. The owner of the Milwaukee Bucks and a major donor to the Democratic National Convention, Edens also owns New Fortress Energy, a firm with investments in natural gas infrastructure worldwide.

“Press freedom and democracy decline as gas tycoon Wes Edens increases his media and political power – as his Gatehouse Media acquires Gannett, creating the largest newspaper company in U.S. history,” said Jeff Cohen, founding Director of the Park Center for Independent Media. “With environmental struggles often localized and fought over issues like fracking and pipeline construction, it’s a grave situation when a gas and fracking investor like Edens is the ultimate owner of an ever-increasing number of local dailies and weeklies.”

GateHouse purchased Gannett for $1.34 billion. It will now own 667 newspapers nationwide.

According to the University of North Carolina School of Media and Journalism’s research on media consolidation, Gannett owns nearly a quarter of the newspapers listed among the top 25 largest media companies in the country.

https://therealnews.com/columns/a-fossil-fuel-baron-just-bought-usa-today




TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1801 on: August 09, 2019, 04:43:45 AM »
A Fossil Fuel Baron Just Bought USA Today

The wonderful "free" press, now even more owned by fossil fuel and military interests ... and I thought their climate change coverage could not get even weaker. If you don't like the new coverage just buy it, seems to be the ethos of the plutocrats that block meaningful policy action on climate change.

Quote
A fossil fuel baron is now an executive at the largest regional newspaper network in the United States.

On August 5, Gannett—the owner of USA Today and regional newspapers in cities such as Detroit, Indianapolis, Nashville, Phoenix and Des Moines—merged with GateHouse Media.

GateHouse, a digital news network with bureaus in cities such as Austin, Eugene, Beach, and Newport, is owned by an investment firm called New Media Investment Group. owned in turn by Wes Edens’ New Fortress Investment Group. The owner of the Milwaukee Bucks and a major donor to the Democratic National Convention, Edens also owns New Fortress Energy, a firm with investments in natural gas infrastructure worldwide.

“Press freedom and democracy decline as gas tycoon Wes Edens increases his media and political power – as his Gatehouse Media acquires Gannett, creating the largest newspaper company in U.S. history,” said Jeff Cohen, founding Director of the Park Center for Independent Media. “With environmental struggles often localized and fought over issues like fracking and pipeline construction, it’s a grave situation when a gas and fracking investor like Edens is the ultimate owner of an ever-increasing number of local dailies and weeklies.”

GateHouse purchased Gannett for $1.34 billion. It will now own 667 newspapers nationwide.

According to the University of North Carolina School of Media and Journalism’s research on media consolidation, Gannett owns nearly a quarter of the newspapers listed among the top 25 largest media companies in the country.

https://therealnews.com/columns/a-fossil-fuel-baron-just-bought-usa-today


Sometimes I wonder about capitalism.


Control of everything seems to flow into the hands of the most wealthy, as opposed to the hands of the most able, the kindest, the most caring or even the brightest.


The more you think about it the less sense it makes.


Would you send the richest matador to conquer the bravest bull?
The richest driver to win at at Daytona?
The wealthiest general to lead our forces?
The most prosperous oncologist to cure your cancer?


Having piles of money indicates that you gave piles of money. STOP

It doesn't indicate that you're bright, brave, or even that your breath doesn't stink.
Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1802 on: August 10, 2019, 06:57:41 PM »
Having piles of money indicates that you gave piles of money. STOP

TerryM, I think you meant "have piles of money".
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1803 on: August 11, 2019, 05:14:09 AM »
Having piles of money indicates that you gave piles of money. STOP

TerryM, I think you meant "have piles of money".
oops!


Thanks
Terry

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1804 on: August 18, 2019, 10:53:43 PM »
Where are emissions going in 2019? UP by about 1.6%

Thats the forecast from Carbon Brief given GDP growth and ongoing rates of energy efficiency and decarbonization. The drop in emissions for all those IPCC graphs post 2020 will just have to get even steeper, and they will have to assume even more heroic levels of atmospheric carbon removal.

Quote
This crude estimate for 2019 assumes that GDP will expand by 3.5%, as expected by the International Monetary Fund, and that the carbon intensity of the global economy will improve at the average rate seen over the past 10 years. As monthly energy data starts to become available, this estimate will be superseded with more accurate projections in the second half of the year.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-chinas-co2-emissions-grew-slower-than-expected-in-2018

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1805 on: August 25, 2019, 05:39:27 AM »
California Releases Misleading Greenhouse Emissions Report

A very good take on California's misleading climate change report from the real news netowrk. This very much represents the "soft denial" of the countries that make so many positive statements at the UN meetings then soft-pedals when they get home.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=450&v=YS6JDr7oan8

Human Habitat Index

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1806 on: August 25, 2019, 09:07:52 AM »
California Releases Misleading Greenhouse Emissions Report

A very good take on California's misleading climate change report from the real news netowrk. This very much represents the "soft denial" of the countries that make so many positive statements at the UN meetings then soft-pedals when they get home.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=450&v=YS6JDr7oan8

Comment from the video :-


Dennis Renner

1 day ago

Our whole society is caught in this type of hypocrisy.  Each, and every one of us thinks the quality of our lives is better because of products made, or produced by the polluting industries that are destroying our environment.    The fact we are all using some type of electronic device to watch this news program is proof.  All these electronic devices would not exist with out the use of fossil fuels.  From the mining of basic resources to factories,  The foods the workers eat, the transportation of materials all depends on the fuels that are running us off this cliff.  Even the production of clean renewables are not really clean.  The resins to produce wind generators are an oil product.  Solar panels use about 4 tons of coal to produce each panel.   Every aspect of our lives adds to the problem.  Civilization is a heat engine.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

Juan C. García

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1807 on: September 28, 2019, 03:31:39 AM »
This is a better topic to be posted:
New U.N. climate report: Monumental change already here for world’s oceans and frozen regions
Quote
Climate change is already having staggering effects on oceans and ice-filled regions that encompass 80 percent of the Earth, and future damage from rising seas and melting glaciers is now all but certain, according to a sobering new report from the United Nations.

The warming climate is killing coral reefs, supercharging monster storms, and fueling deadly marine heat waves and record losses of sea ice. And Wednesday’s report on the world’s oceans, glaciers, polar regions and ice sheets finds that such effects foreshadow a more catastrophic future as long as greenhouse gas emissions remain unchecked.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/09/25/new-un-climate-report-massive-change-already-here-worlds-oceans-frozen-regions/?wpisrc=nl_green&wpmm=1

Download IPCC report:
https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/download-report/
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

nanning

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1808 on: September 28, 2019, 06:06:56 AM »
^^
From the Washington Post article:

“As a result of excess greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the ocean today is higher, warmer, more acidic, less productive and holds less oxygen,” said Jane Lubchenco, a former administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). “The conclusion is inescapable: The impacts of climate change on the ocean are well underway. Unless we take very serious action very soon, these impacts will get worse — much, much worse.”
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1809 on: October 01, 2019, 01:22:15 AM »
Russia and the Paris accord:  small steps

"the cost of emissions in Russia is set to rise"

https://www.intellinews.com/the-cost-of-carbon-in-russia-braced-to-implement-the-paris-accord-168633/

sidd

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1810 on: October 01, 2019, 04:51:01 AM »
^^
A very good and inclusive article. :)
Terry

Juan C. García

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1811 on: October 09, 2019, 03:32:42 PM »
It will be good to have this video on this topic.
The first 37 mins don't have information.
The IPCC's recently released "Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate":

https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/home/

Here's a recording of the associated press conference:



The first 37 mins are rather boring!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1812 on: October 09, 2019, 04:35:38 PM »
sigmetnow picked up the latest lunacy from the USA EPA

Here it is & my reply. Also sent this stuff to The Guardian & the UK Extinction Rebellion Press Office
______________________________
Re: Oil and Gas Issues

From: Sigmetnow on Today at 02:19:07 AM

"There Is Not a Climate Crisis': Trump Administration Spouts Brazen Bullshit to Justify Arctic Drilling"

...attorneys with the Sierra Club stumbled upon this tidbit:

“The BLM does not agree that the proposed development is inconsistent with maintaining a livable planet (i.e., there is not a climate crisis). The planet was much warmer within the past 1,000 years, prior to the Little Ice Age, based on extensive archaeological evidence (such as farming in Greenland and vineyards in England). This warmth did not make the planet unlivable; rather, it was a time when societies prospered.”

This text was included five times in this section of the final environmental impact statement in response to public comments legal group Trustees for Alaska submitted. All the All group’s comments revolved around the role drilling in the Alaskan refuge could have in making climate change worse.

This is the first time that the Sierra Club and its partners have identified the use of such blatant climate-denying language in an official federal environmental analysis. Government officials, including Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Andrew Wheeler and even President Donald Trump, have said such things before, but an environmental impact statement is more than words. It’s the legal support for a project. ...
https://earther.gizmodo.com/there-is-not-a-climate-crisis-trump-administration-spo-1838444325/
___________________________________________
gerontocrat

That might be what is required for a court to set aside the Government's impact statement by accepting the fact of climate change and its impact. There is precedent for such a judgement.

The reality or not of climate change might end up in the US Supreme Court.
____________________________________________________
E-Mail Sent
<gerontocrat@gmail.com>
13:57 (1 hour ago)
to press (Extinction Rebellion)

If you don't want to believe that there is a war going on between the people and the powerful, don't read on...

...... " Listen To The Scientists"

This is the latest from Trump's Environment Protection Agency in their final Environmental Impact Statement justifying resuming drilling in The Arctic , and I quote...

“The BLM does not agree that the proposed development is inconsistent with maintaining a livable planet (i.e., there is not a climate crisis). The planet was much warmer within the past 1,000 years, prior to the Little Ice Age, based on extensive archaeological evidence (such as farming in Greenland and vineyards in England). This warmth did not make the planet unlivable; rather, it was a time when societies prospered.”
As the Sierra Club stated...

This is the first time that the Sierra Club and its partners have identified the use of such blatant climate-denying language in an official federal environmental analysis. Government officials, including Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Andrew Wheeler and even President Donald Trump, have said such things before, but an environmental impact statement is more than words. It’s the legal support for a project. ...
Sources:-

Arctic Sea Ice Forum...

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,861.msg232459.html#msg232459

https://earther.gizmodo.com/there-is-not-a-climate-crisis-trump-administration-spo-1838444325

I think the Extinction Rebellion people need to know how really bad it really is.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

kassy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1813 on: October 09, 2019, 07:02:18 PM »
You are the kind of guy i would elect as Emperor.  ;)
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1814 on: October 09, 2019, 07:24:49 PM »
You are the kind of guy i would elect as Emperor.  ;)

“Elon for elon”

and

“gerontocrat for gerontocrat“!

 ;)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1815 on: October 09, 2019, 10:14:54 PM »
You are the kind of guy i would elect as Emperor.  ;)

“Elon for elon”

and

“gerontocrat for gerontocrat“!
 ;)
Note the new Avatar - getting ready to become "The Great Dictator". Does the plot thicken - or thin?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1816 on: October 11, 2019, 12:44:41 AM »
Quote
The world needs a massive carbon tax in just 10 years to limit climate change, IMF says

The international organization suggests a cost of $75 per ton by 2030.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/10/10/world-needs-massive-carbon-tax-just-years-limit-climate-change-imf-says/?wpisrc=nl_green&wpmm=1

And if we start with a cost of $40 per ton by January 2020? ???
I would like a commitment now, not in ten years! ;)

Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1817 on: November 21, 2019, 01:59:04 PM »
Going backwards. Of the reports that have come out this year this UNEP report is perhaps the worse.

The contrast between what could be done to reduce Global Heating and what seems will be done to accelerate Global Heating is profound and certainly more than confirmed my most pessimistic thoughts and feelings.

Quote
Governments are planning to produce about 50% more fossil fuels by 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 2°C and 120% more than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

To estimate the production gap, this report puts forward a method analogous to that used in the Emissions Gap Report. It uses publicly available data to estimate the difference between what countries are planning and what would be consistent with 1.5°C and 2°C pathways, based on scenarios from the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C. In aggregate, countries’ planned fossil fuel production by 2030 will lead to the emission of 39 billion tonnes (gigatonnes) of carbon dioxide (GtCO2). That is 13 GtCO2, or 53%, more than would be consistent with a 2°C pathway, and 21 GtCO2 (120%) more than would be consistent with a 1.5°C pathway. This gap widens significantly by 2040.

Many countries appear to be banking on export markets to justify major increases in production (e.g., the United States, Russia, and Canada) while others are seeking to limit or largely end imports through scaled-up production (e.g., India and China). The net result could be significant over-investment, increasing the risk of stranded assets, workers, and communities, as well as locking in a higher emissions trajectory.
Links.........
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/20/fossil-fuel-production-on-track-for-double-the-safe-climate-limit

UNEP Reports
https://productiongap.org/2019report/
http://productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Production-Gap-Report-2019-Executive-Summary.pdf
http://productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Production-Gap-Report-2019-Executive-Summary.pdf
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1818 on: November 22, 2019, 09:41:35 AM »
Interesting data Gerontocrat!
Norway seems to be wearing the white hat, with Kazakhstan a close second. I remember Putin pledging quite recently that Russia would stand by her IPCC pledges, and even though the chart shows him missing by small amounts in 2 if the 3 categories I can't imagine him being caught in a trap so easily avoided.


Would adding additional columns showing the bolded country's combined CO2 output compared with the combined CO2 output the IEA allows be difficult?


I have difficulties visualizing the difference in say Australia's 140 ton coal & 20 Bil. cube gas, to China's 100 ton coal, 0.9 mm bls oil & 40 Bil. cube gas, or Canada's 0.5 mm Bls oil & 10 Bil cube gas.
The figures as given are important, but two additional columns might make it clearer for some of us.


BTW I haven't thanked you recently for the charts you have compiled and shared. Is there a website where these could be accessed? I much prefer using data compiled by friends that I trust to information I've picked up in my own ventures out into the wildes of the interweb!


FWIW I think we blew through 1,5 & 2 degrees some time ago.


Stay Healthy - we need you
Terry

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1819 on: November 22, 2019, 12:32:30 PM »
Interesting data Gerontocrat!

Would adding additional columns showing the bolded country's combined CO2 output compared with the combined CO2 output the IEA allows be difficult?

The figures as given are important, but two additional columns might make it clearer for some of us.


BTW I haven't thanked you recently for the charts you have compiled and shared. Is there a website where these could be accessed? I much prefer using data compiled by friends that I trust to information I've picked up in my own ventures out into the wildes of the interweb!


FWIW I think we blew through 1,5 & 2 degrees some time ago.


Stay Healthy - we need you
Terry
The graphs in the above post are not mine - they are straight from the UNEP reports, and I have no access to the data they used.

I am dithering about making a website - its not the making of it, it is the time maintaining it.
e.g. in 40 days time I have to tell my maze of spreadsheets that we are in 2020, and there are lots of little algorithms that manipulate data from a baseline date buried in them.

Then not much later I have to tell my spreadsheets that 2020 is a leap year. Groan.

What I do (when I remember) is take what I like or need of the attachments to ASIF postings (or the posting itself) by downloading them and saving them to my hard disc.

Keep on trucking, Terry.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

kassy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1820 on: November 25, 2019, 03:02:05 PM »
Our 2018 ´hindcast´:

Climate change: Greenhouse gas concentrations again break records

 in 2018 concentrations of CO2 reached 407.8 parts per million (ppm), up from 405.5ppm a year previously.

This increase was above the average for the last 10 years and is 147% of the "pre-industrial" level in 1750.

Methane is now at 259% of the pre-industrial level and the increase seen over the past year was higher than both the previous annual rate and the average over the past 10 years.

Nitrous oxide is emitted from natural and human sources, including from the oceans and from fertiliser-use in farming. According to the WMO, it is now at 123% of the levels that existed in 1750.

Last year's increase in concentrations of the gas, which can also harm the ozone layer, was bigger than the previous 12 months and higher than the average of the past decade.

What concerns scientists is the overall warming impact of all these increasing concentrations. Known as total radiative forcing, this effect has increased by 43% since 1990, and is not showing any indication of stopping.

...

"It is worth recalling that the last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was three to five million years ago. Back then, the temperature was 2-3C warmer, sea level was 10-20m higher than now," said Mr Taalas.

For details see:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-50504131
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1821 on: November 25, 2019, 04:02:24 PM »
Quote
Nitrous oxide is emitted from natural and human sources, including from the oceans and from fertiliser-use in farming. According to the WMO, it is now at 123% of the levels that existed in 1750.
Nitrous oxide AKA laughing gas.
At least we'll die laughing.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

kassy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1822 on: November 25, 2019, 04:36:58 PM »
Over here it is also a bit of a street drug problem. So they sit in the car taking this snorting it via balloons (plastic pollution) then leaving the metal canisters on the road (the stuff is used for whipped cream machines) which also takes quite some energy to manufacture and transport. 

Then they probably vent out some of the laughing gas directly.

This pisses me off every time i see it although i mostly see the canisters.

Oh and ofc they also drive after...
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nanning

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1823 on: November 25, 2019, 05:56:50 PM »
^^
I think I have picked up more than 1000 of those small aluminium canisters in Amsterdam.
Doing it is not a problem but it seems highly addictive to part of the users. And they get seriously ill.
Of course because of the scale it is not influencing AGW. And it is mainly done by young people who deserve some slack from the grown-ups. There are more important culprits such as ICE car emissions.

Thanks for your great post #1820 kassy!
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

kassy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1824 on: November 25, 2019, 06:16:43 PM »
They do not deserve some slack. Because actually that is lack of attention. You can also ask why are you trying to numb yourself? What are you running from?

That has no direct cost benefits in the models we use so no one is doing that but it actually erodes society.

If they just smoked some dutch herbals we could cut them some slack (although arguably it would push the CO2 limit over 0).  ;)
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nanning

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1825 on: November 25, 2019, 06:55:01 PM »
^^
I'm not sure if I understand this sentence:
"That has no direct cost benefits in the models we use so no one is doing that but it actually erodes society."

Sorry, but, excuse me? That behaviour doesn't erode our society. It is no more than part of recreative drugs and its high usage is mainly a symptom, an effect of the already eroded society by consecutive neo-liberalistic governments. Please have a heart, some empathy for the young people. How did your future look when you were a teenager kassy?

I smoke joints every day because of insights, pleasure and perhaps numbness. To me and all of living nature this civilisation world is a hell. There is nothing anymore to run to. To escape to. I don't think my behaviour erodes society.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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NeilT

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1826 on: November 26, 2019, 02:16:46 PM »
I smoke joints every day because of insights, pleasure and perhaps numbness. To me and all of living nature this civilisation world is a hell. There is nothing anymore to run to. To escape to. I don't think my behaviour erodes society.

And there is the problem.  There is no running away from life or the consequences of life.  You have to live it, it is rarely pretty and you just have to get down to doing it.

Children are a wonderful teacher for that.  There is no running away from them when life is bad, whey they are a nightmare, you just have to knuckle down and get on with it.

As my nephew found out, after 20 years of running away into joints, smoking mind altering substances solve nothing and help nothing.  They just make life more difficult.

Once he finally worked that out he went back to university and won every award they have.  Drug free!
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1827 on: November 26, 2019, 02:36:34 PM »
UNEP have issued their 2019 emissions gap report.

Executive Summary - https://newclimate.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/EGR19ESEN.pdf
Full Report - https://newclimate.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/EGR2019.pdf

Press release - https://newclimate.org/2019/11/26/emissions-gap-report-2019/
Quote
Geneva, 26 November 2019 – unless global greenhouse gas emissions fall by 7.6 per cent each year between 2020 and 2030, the world will miss the opportunity to get on track towards the 1.5°C temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.

UNEP’s annual Emissions Gap Report says that even if all current unconditional commitments under the Paris Agreement are implemented, temperatures are expected to rise by 3.2°C, bringing even wider-ranging and more destructive climate impacts. Collective ambition must increase more than fivefold over current levels to deliver the cuts needed over the next decade for the 1.5°C goal.

Quote
“For ten years, the Emissions Gap Report has been sounding the alarm – and for ten years, the world has only increased its emissions,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
“There has never been a more important time to listen to the science. Failure to heed these warnings and take drastic action to reverse emissions means we will continue to witness deadly and catastrophic heatwaves, storms and pollution.”[/size]

I think we are well and truly screwed.


"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

kassy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1828 on: November 26, 2019, 03:19:33 PM »
At least we tried...oh wait.  :(

Quote
Fifteen of the 20 wealthiest nations have no timeline for a net zero target.

The report says that emissions have gone up by 1.5% per year in the last decade. In 2018, the total reached 55 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent. This is putting the Earth on course to experience a temperature rise of 3.2C by the end of this century.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-50547073

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NeilT

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1829 on: November 26, 2019, 03:34:51 PM »
It was clear we were well and truly screwed at Copenhagen.  The only question was when and by just how much.

We still don't have an answer to those two questions but we do have an indicative trend.  Sooner than we think and more than we want to accept.

But I'm British so I can say "Hey we did our part we have a net Zero timeline".  Then I go an look at where 75% of my goods/clothes I buy come from and it is from China and India.  Then I don't feel so good again.

It is not so much how screwed we are.  It is whether or not that will motivate our governments to do something about it.

In the UK that is highly unlikely. We have an election going on right now, vote on Dec 12th.  We have a choice between, "if the press is to believed", a person who believes the truth lies second to the goals of getting stuff done; an Anti Semitic, terrorist supporting, communist, blow hard who is going to trash our economy to buy votes; several non-entities who are not going to impact this election too much (with the probably exception of Farage).

Climate?  5th also ran on the issues.  Not much help there then.  Although the UK has reduced direct CO2 emissions by some 40% compared to 1990 levels and has a net 0 target of 2050.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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nanning

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1830 on: November 26, 2019, 04:14:16 PM »
Thanks for that gerontocrat.

Neil, this is not a passing phenomenon. It will acceleratingly worsen for centuries (catchup and feedbacks).

Politics is not important because politicians won't govern and lead. They want only to pleasure the voters and businesses and have no long term view. The voters don't want to radically change.
We have a by mass media censored Democracy Lobbycracy.

"It is not so much how screwed we are. "
Not so much? 'Screwed' is beginning to take the form of human extinction.

"Our house is on fire" => "The whole house is going to burn down"
Without something to live in, there is no life.

P.S. The U.K. hasn't reduced zilch. Just exported their emissions.
(and what about your past emissions; UK's accumulated carbon footprint; your contribution!)
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1831 on: November 26, 2019, 04:35:17 PM »
Climate?  5th also ran on the issues.  Not much help there then.  Although the UK has reduced direct CO2 emissions by some 40% compared to 1990 levels and has a net 0 target of 2050.
The UK was doing well on reducing CO2 emissions and then....

- onshore wind power banned,
- solar power subsidies scrapped and zero payment for excess energy going back into the grid.

Lots of policy announcements but the Government committee says CO2 emissions reductions are stalling (apart from completing the death of coal).
Fossil fuel subsidies continue - Government determined to keep oil & gas exploration going in the North Sea.

Expect a load more blah blah up to the 2020 Glalgow conference & then....?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

NeilT

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1832 on: November 26, 2019, 04:37:01 PM »
nanning, the house is not burning down.  It will just house less people.  That is the problem.  AGW is not quite like an E.L.E asteroid, it is more a rolling disaster where the home becomes more and more inhospitable until the population can no longer be supported.

It is like the inverse of an ice age.

I'm not diminishing the UK's past emissions.  I also pointed out that I'm forced to buy products which are produced in high emissions countries.  So you don't need to reiterate that for me.

However it is about what happens going forward that matters.  How we reduce our emissions to net zero then start pulling the carbon back out of the atmosphere which we have already emitted.

That will require government level focus and, right now, that focus is anywhere but on climate.

The UK has 300 years worth of coal under the ground at 1970's consumption figures.  We have chosen not to use it.  That is a start.  It is where that start leads us that is important and constantly bleating on about how bad we are for having emitted so much in the past is _NOT_ going to get you any further than we already are.
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NeilT

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1833 on: November 26, 2019, 04:43:46 PM »
The UK was doing well on reducing CO2 emissions and then....

We ran out of money because Gordon Brown was obsessed with borrowing to invest....

In giving it away.

10 years later and little has changed.  Mainly because we fudged the financial crisis and are still walking around in the wilderness.

The problem is that climate change is too slow moving to fit into a 5 or 10 year economic model.  Something that evolves over half centuries simply can't get the focus until it is too late.

Of course we could vote for change but nobody serious is really offering much else.

One thing I learned from reading realclimate was that small % changes applied on an annual basis for decades will move climate mountains.  Demanding that we make large % changes year on year is akin to jumping off a mountain.

Climate change will not be solved by flash in the pan marches and knee jerk policy changes.  It will be solved by grim, determined, year on year, compound changes which add up to far more than is being promised today.

See anything like that?  I only see the EU commission on that track and they are unelected!  There is a message there somewhere.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1834 on: November 26, 2019, 06:12:37 PM »
Has anyone published anything indicating that Gerontocrat's forecast 3.2C increase is:


Manageable?
Sustainable?
Survivable?


As has been mentioned this requires massive immediate action by the worlds governing body's.
Is there any hope at all of massive immediate action by the worlds governing body's?
.............
What's the best path forward:


Hospice care for all beginning now?
Massive mitigation to save the elites so that they can survive for ~ a generation longer than the deplorables?


Swift action to eliminate the proletariat as soon as possible?
Swift action to eliminate the elite as soon as possible?


Build our national wealth at a frenzied pace so that we can afford some of the mitigation needed?
Kill all trade so that no one can afford to emit GHGs?


Outlaw geoengineering projects because of unknowable side effects?
Mandate immediate geoengineering projects because otherwise the outcome is known?
...................


We won't of course do any of the above. We'll ride BAU until that horse dies in the traces, then we'll disperse into smaller, ungovernable groups.


And that's only if we're lucky enough to avoid the nuclear powers rallying for one last show of strength.


It's been a wonderful ride, but it's time to pay the piper.
Terry

Ken Feldman

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1835 on: November 26, 2019, 09:28:59 PM »
The UNEP emissions gap report includes projections for fossil fuel production based on IEA and other projections (for the US, EIA) that are very friendly to the fossil fuel industry and not based in reality.

The chart for oil shows US oil production growing from the current record rate of 12.8 million barrels per day to almost double, 22 million barrels per day in 2030.  Meanwhile, frackers are going bankrupt as quickly as they can get to a courthouse to file papers.  Natural gas has such a huge supply glut that suppliers are talking about cutting production.

And less than a week after the doom and gloom report was published, we see a record drop in coal use for the year.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-coal-power-set-for-record-fall-in-2019

Quote
Global electricity production from coal is on track to fall by around 3% in 2019, the largest drop on record.

The UNEP Emissions Gap report assumes that electricity demand will continue to increase as much as it has in the past few years.  Meanwhile, China and India are seeing drops in electricity demand, in part because much of their investment in the past decade has been in coal plants, which are increasingly sitting idle.

Quote
In China, electricity demand growth has slowed to 3% this year, down from 6.7% over the past two years. Non-fossil energy sources have met almost all this demand growth.

Quote
However, 2019 has so far seen strong nuclear, wind and hydro power generation and relatively weak overall electricity demand growth, with coal use in electricity flatlining.

At the same time, Chinese power firms have been continuing to add new coal-fired power plants to the grid at a rate of one large plant every two weeks. This has driven coal-fired power plant utilisation rates – the share of hours in the year when they are running – back down to record lows of 48.6%. This is the fourth year in a row that the Chinese national average has been below 50% – and also below the global average, which stands at 54%.

Quote
Electricity demand growth in India has continued to slow dramatically across the first ten months of 2019. In October, electricity demand actually fell by 13.2% against the same month last year.

Quote
The average thermal power plant utilisation rate in India is below 58%, meaning substantial idle coal capacity.

Note that the UNEP Emissions Gap report assumes that once a fossil fuel plant is built, it will be used.  As China and India have shown, they instead sit idle while the electricity is generated from lower cost suppliers, like hydropower, solar and wind plants.


Lewis

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1836 on: November 27, 2019, 04:11:10 AM »
MSN news also reporting on the Emission Gap report, pretty much a repeat of what everyone has said already.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/earth-set-to-warm-32-c-by-2100-unless-efforts-are-tripled-new-un-report-finds/ar-BBXldEa

nanning

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1837 on: November 27, 2019, 08:22:00 AM »
"Ecoterrorism? Maybe we should start with ringing the doorbell of a mining magnate’s house"
  by First Dog on the Moon
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1838 on: November 27, 2019, 10:21:30 AM »
Flaming guano on the porch gets my vote - we can still vote can't we?
Terry

kassy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1839 on: November 27, 2019, 01:24:59 PM »

ps: Ken, how do you rate the chances of reducing CO2 emissions in 2030 by 55% (7.5% p.a.) for +1.5 celsius, 25% for +2 celsius ?

With solar and wind now cheaper than fossil fuels in about three quarters of the world (already cheaper in the developed countries and now at grid parity in China), pretty good.

Given that we're already seeing drops in global coal consumption (down 3% in 2019) and softening of demand for oil and a huge glut in natural gas, the major wildcard is how quickly battery electric vehicles take over the transportation market.  The forecast year for cost parity between BEVs and ICEs is now 2022.  So we should see peak oil demand within the decade.

I doubt we'll see a new coal power plant built after 2025 or a new natural gas power plant after 2035.  Sales of new ICE vehicles will probably be banned in most countries in the 2030s.

I suspect that we wont hit the 7.5% annual decreases needed for the 1.5 degree C target until the 2030s, but we should be able to hit the 2.0 target for emissions reductions in the 2020s and exceed them in the 2030s and 2040s.  With global temperatures increasing at around 0.18 degrees per decade and the five-year average increase around 0.9 C, we'd hit 1.5 degrees in the 2050s. So we'll end up somewhere by 1.5C and 2.0C temperature increase before looking at options for carbon dioxide removal (CDR).


Quote above is#560 from the but,but China thread and i edited out parts because i am mainly interested in the time line. Original here:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,956.msg238587.html#new

Meanwhile:
1) Coal power is falling which is good but this means we get added warming from the fall out. Effects are mainly local and current sources are mainly in Asia but any extra warming there will move somewhere over time.

2) The Amazon might die in the early 20ies. It might not if we are lucky but it is rather close. If this happens we have a huge extra source of carbon and since the trees provide a lot of droplets for cloud seeding this will also lead extra drought and soil carbon loss in S-America.

3) Arctic permafrost is a source not a sink since at least 2003 due to wintertime carbon loss.

4) The global greening might turn to global browning. This is an annoying one because the actual paper is linked somewhere on ASIF but i have not been able to find it. Examples are in stories of the death of trees in Germany.

5) Continued infringement on old growth forests. We just keep chopping bits down.

6) Plenty of metrics point to the loss of Arctic ice in that time frame.

So we are chasing a 1,5 or 2 C target while all this damage is accruing.

In the meantime there will be all kind of social effects eating money and creating unrest but that does not directly effect the carbon budget so lets skip those.

And beyond just global warming there is widespread aquifer depletion and top soil loss.

So basically there is this disjoint between our abstract goals and all kind of bad stuff happening.

AFAIC the whole plan was to prevent the arctic ice from failing (which is iffy by this timeline) and preventing arctic permafrost from failing was another important point which we already failed.

When the ozone hole was detected we acted on it. Less money there i guess.
This was different with FF interests and basically the damage had been done when the goal was moved beyond 1C max global warming because that gets us to where we are now.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1840 on: November 27, 2019, 04:04:03 PM »
Carbon Brief on Twitter:  @UNEP: 1.5C climate target ‘slipping out of reach’
https://mobile.twitter.com/carbonbrief/status/1199359013768646657
Image below.  30-second vid at the link animates the yearly changing path.

Article:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/unep-1-5c-climate-target-slipping-out-of-reach/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

nanning

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1841 on: November 27, 2019, 05:31:03 PM »
Thank you for that sobering list and for your view kassy.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

vox_mundi

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1842 on: November 27, 2019, 08:06:03 PM »
Nine Climate Tipping Points Now 'Active,' Warn Scientists
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-climate-scientists.html

"A decade ago we identified a suite of potential tipping points in the Earth system, now we see evidence that over half of them have been activated," said lead author Professor Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter.



This threatens the loss of the Amazon rainforest and the great ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland, which are currently undergoing measurable and unprecedented changes much earlier than expected.

This "cascade" of changes sparked by global warming could threaten the existence of human civilisations.

Evidence is mounting that these events are more likely and more interconnected than was previously thought, leading to a possible domino effect.


... we must admit that we have underestimated the risks of unleashing irreversible changes, where the planet self-amplifies global warming.

"This is what we now start seeing, already at 1°C global warming.

"The growing threat of rapid, irreversible changes means it is no longer responsible to wait and see. The situation is urgent and we need an emergency response."



Exiting the fossil fuel economy is unlikely before 2050, but with temperature already at 1.1°C above pre-industrial temperature, it is likely Earth will cross the 1.5°C guardrail by 2040. The authors conclude this alone defines an emergency.

Quote
... "The situation is an emergency if both risk and urgency are high. If reaction time is longer than the intervention time left (τ / T > 1), we have lost control."

Open Access: Timothy M. Lenton, et.al. Comment: Climate tipping points—too risky to bet against, Nature (2019)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

KiwiGriff

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1843 on: November 27, 2019, 08:44:23 PM »
Nasty feeling liking that comment Vox.

AAAS THE REALITY, RISKS, AND RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
https://whatweknow.aaas.org/get-the-facts/
 
Quote
2.  We are at risk of pushing our climate system toward abrupt, unpredictable, and potentially irreversible changes with highly damaging impacts. Earth’s climate is on a path to warm beyond the range of what has been experienced over the past millions of years.[ii] The range of uncertainty for the warming along the current emissions path is wide enough to encompass massively disruptive consequences to societies and ecosystems: as global temperatures rise, there is a real risk, however small, that one or more critical parts of the Earth’s climate system will experience abrupt, unpredictable and potentially irreversible changes. Disturbingly, scientists do not know how much warming is required to trigger such changes to the climate system.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2019, 11:03:26 PM by KiwiGriff »

vox_mundi

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1844 on: November 27, 2019, 09:05:16 PM »
Indeed!

As you might say in NZ ... 'Well and truly stuffed!'

And tommorrow I will sit down for Thanksgiving with some relatives who think our 'orange-haired shit gibbon' is on the 'right track' and would be seriously challenged to tell the difference between climate and weather.

They have a couple of kids in their 20s. Alas.

I think I will be drinking a lot of wine, tommorrow.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

nanning

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1845 on: November 27, 2019, 09:55:44 PM »
I wish you strenght vox. My relatives are as you described. Enjoy your wine ;D.
Love, nanning
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1846 on: November 27, 2019, 10:41:04 PM »
My family believes in AGW. Even my cousin/guardian believes in it, but like me he votes Republican for other issues (unlike me, he still belongs to the party).
It is that Furry forum that are rabid deniers. I invited them here, but warned their attitude would probably get them banned. They declined to come. Just as well, it will save Neven the aggravation.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS