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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1900 on: March 05, 2021, 03:23:50 PM »
Whoops?

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/03/05/china-makes-no-shift-away-coal-five-year-plan-crawls-carbon-neutrality/
China makes no shift away from coal in five-year plan as it ‘crawls’ to carbon neutrality
Published on 05/03/2021, 1:01pm
Beijing set out incremental increases in climate targets to 2025, allowing for continued expansion of “clean” coal, to the disappointment of climate watchers
Quote
As the Chinese government set out its development objectives for the next five years on Friday, those hoping for a shift away from coal were left disappointed.

At the National People’s Congress session on Friday, as heavy smog settled over Beijing, Chinese premier Li Keqiang presented a summary of the country’s economic plan to 2025.

The document will shape China’s emissions trajectory and gives an insight into how Beijing is planning to get on track to achieve its climate goals of peaking its emissions before 2030 and becoming carbon neutral by 2060.

And for analysts, the answer is with baby steps.

“This is much closer to continuing current trend than getting on track to carbon neutrality,” Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, told Climate Home News. “Clearly there’s no preparedness to put a stop to coal expansion.”

In his address, Li said China will “expedite” its transition to a green development model with “a major push to develop new energy sources” while “promoting the clean and efficient use of coal”.

This reflects ongoing contradictions between expanding the carbon economy and promoting green growth, Myllyvirta said.

Zhang Shuwei, chief economist at the Draworld Environment Research Center, said the plan fell short of expectations on climate, with details on how Beijing is planning to accelerate the economy’s decarbonisation largely missing.

“The international community expected China’s climate policy to jump, but in reality it is still crawling,” he said.

Researchers have said China needs to stop building new coal-fired power plants after 2020 if it is to align its policy with its long-term carbon neutrality goal.

China’s five-year plan is “underwhelming and shows little sign of a concerted switch away from a future coal lock-in,” said Swithin Lui, of NewClimate Institute, and the China lead for Climate Action Tracker. The independent watchdog rates China’s efforts as “highly insufficient” to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

He said more detailed five-year plans for the energy sector and on climate commitments, which are expected in the second half of the year, will need to include a cap on coal use.

The plan ends the practice of setting a five-year GDP target, usually the cornerstone of the document, settling instead for a 6% growth target for 2021.

With economic growth still tightly linked to emissions, the abandonment of a five-year GDP target could help reduce pressure on provinces to pursue aggressive growth measures that tend to favour carbon-intensive investments.

However, this makes projecting CO2 emissions growth over the period to 2025 more difficult. Sustained 5% growth could translate to emissions rising 10% by 2025, estimated Refinitiv analyst Yan Qin.

https://www.dw.com/en/china-coal-emissions-climate-change/a-56644449
Is China's five year plan a decarbonization blueprint?
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Five Year Plan offers hope, yet 'old habits die hard' 
The Chinese government's 14th Five Year Plan (5YP) has been much-anticipated as the moment the country would consolidate its 2060 commitment, and update its promise to achieve peak carbon before 2030. 

Announced on March 5, the plan made only tepid commitments, however. There was hope that a lower GDP target of 5% over the next five years, as opposed to 6.5% in the last 5YP, would signal a "notable slowdown" in emissions, said Li Shuo, Beijing-based policy advisor with Greenpeace East Asia. Instead, the plan only includes a GDP target for 2021, which is 6% but is coming off a low base due to the pandemic-related economic slowdown.   

Shuo also hoped the nationally determined contribution (NDC) target as part of the Paris climate deal would be updated, meaning the "carbon intensity" reduction target would be raised from an expected 18% to 21%. That did not happen, meaning the further hope that China's peak emissions could be reached by 2025 is now unlikely. 

UNEP's Niklas Hagelberg believes that if emissions peak closer to 2030, it will be too late for the world to achieve a 50% cut by 2030, a fundamental target on the road to decarbonization by mid-century. Unless emissions begin falling by 2025, "it won't be sufficient to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 or '60," he said.

The 5YP "sends an indecisive climate signal," Shuo said. However, a "habit of under-committing and over-delivering five year plans" means that "these targets will hopefully hedge against a surge in further emission growth." 

One positive signal in the plan was the raising of the proportion of non-fossil fuel sources in China's energy mix from 15% in the last 5YP to around 20% for 2021-25, according to Shuo.

There was also a commitment to build 1200 GW of wind and solar capacity by 2025 — higher than the coal-fired power capacity of 1100 GW set in 2016. 

The plan states a commitment to "make a major push to develop new energy sources," yet also wants to promote "the clean and efficient use of coal." Yan Qin, carbon analyst at Refinitiv Carbon, which analyses carbon markets, tweeted that this "looks contradictory to me."

As attested by the acceleration in the construction of coal-fired power plants in the last two years, Li Shuo said that "old economic habits die hard."
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kassy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1901 on: March 05, 2021, 03:45:45 PM »
Global warming has been talked about in the scientific community for a long, long time. But it wasn't until 2015 that representatives from 195 countries signed the Paris Agreement, which calls for keeping global warming to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial times. According to scientists, this is the only way to prevent climate catastrophe.

However, in late 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a report stating that tackling climate change cannot be delayed. The main conclusion is that irreparable damage to the planet could be done as early as 2030. The participants in the Paris Agreement promised not to let the atmosphere warm by more than 2°C by 2100, but mankind is now moving towards the 3°C mark. Experts believe people have reached a tipping point in their influence on the planet, so immediate global changes are needed in all spheres of society.

Welcome mr. Webb.
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Sciguy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1902 on: March 05, 2021, 08:37:12 PM »
On Chinese coal, keep in mind that coal is now more expensive than renewables and will die out anyway.  Governments can essentially play it both ways, placating miners and coal industries by not specifically banning them while the renewables replace them anyway.  Even though China isn't a market economy, economics still apply there.  Renewables are replacing coal, even though the government isn't mandating it.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/non-coal-plants-make-up-half-of-china-power-capacity-for-first-time-18-02-2021

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Non-Coal Plants Make Up Half of China's Power Capacity for First Time

Thu 18 Feb, 2021

Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong/Shanghai-18 February 2021: Non-coal generation plants accounted for half of China's total power capacity share for the first time in 2020, while the power output of non-fossil fuels made up one-third of the nation's power output, says Fitch Ratings in its quarterly China Power Watch.

The share of coal-fired power capacity in China's fuel mix dropped to below 50% for the first time in 2020, given strong renewable installations. We expect the share to fall by at least 3pp yoy in 2021, as China pushes towards carbon neutrality and renewables addition stay strong. Collectively, non-fossil fuels produced 34% of China's power output over the year, which was 1% higher than in 2019.

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1903 on: March 11, 2021, 04:16:35 PM »
BAU rules, OK?

https://time.com/5945354/covid-19-recovery-climate-change/
U.N. Study*** Finds Just 2.5% of Pandemic Response Funds Committed So Far Will Help Fix the Climate and Environment
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In 2020, the colliding crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and increasingly visible climate change led many governments, politicians and campaigners to adopt the slogan “build back better,” promising to use economic recovery funds to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and create societies that are more resilient to extreme weather and other climate-related shocks.

But that hasn’t happened yet. A study published March 10 by the U.N. Environment Program, in partnership with the University of Oxford, found that of the $14.6 trillion committed by governments of the world’s 50 largest economies in 2020, just 2.5% was on programs likely to decrease greenhouse-gas emissions, lower pollution or restoring degraded natural systems.

The figures do not include the $2 trillion in climate spending promised by U.S. President Joe Biden, the details of which are still being hammered out. Nor does it include the European Commission funds of those E.U. member states that have not yet announced how they will allocate their budgets. Those un-declared funds are worth more than $2 trillion, according to the report, and with the E.U. leaders driving the green recovery agenda, they are likely to increase the proportion of global recovery spending that is directed towards reducing emissions.

Still, the report “clearly shows that we are not yet building back better when it comes to recovery spending,” writes UNEP executive director Inger Andersen. “On the whole, so far global green spending does not match the severity of the three planetary crises of climate change, nature loss, and pollution, leaving significant social and long-term economic benefits off the table.”

Of the total amount analyzed in the UNEP report, $1.9 trillion was classified as “long term recovery” spending; green recovery initiatives made up 18% of that. Brian O’Callaghan, head of the Oxford University Economic Recovery Project, said much of the remaining 82% represented missed opportunities for governments to speed up the fight against climate change. “Governments in many cases are just trying to return to the old normal,” he told a launch event for the report. “It seems like the world is trying to put out a house fire with a garden hose when a perfectly good fire hydrant is available just next door.”

Green investment commitments in 2020 were not equally distributed among countries, with most of it driven by “a small set of high-income nations.” Based on proportion of GDP, Spain, South Korea, and the U.K. led on green spending during the pandemic—though that is partly because these countries have announced the allocations of greater shares of their recovery plans than most countries so far. But when considering green spending as a proportion of recovery funds so far announced, Denmark, Finland, Germany, France, Norway, and Poland led.

The analysis doesn’t mean there will be no further pandemic-related green spending. The report argues that the window for green recovery investment is “only now opening” and urges governments to prioritize five areas for investment in 2021: green energy, green transport, green building upgrades & energy efficiency, green research and development, and restoring and protecting natural eco-systems and the services they provide.

***
Are We Building Back Better? Evidence from 2020 and Pathways for Inclusive Green Recovery Spending
Summary...
https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/35282/AWBBB_ES.pdf
Full report
https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/35281/AWBBB.pdf
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1904 on: March 12, 2021, 06:53:46 PM »
Fuck-a-duck. Of all the people in the world, they had to choose HIM.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/12/climate-experts-in-dismay-at-choice-of-mathias-cormann-as-oecd-chief
Climate experts in dismay at choice of Mathias Cormann as OECD chief

Critics say election of Australian finance minister with ‘atrocious record’ sends a dangerous signal

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Climate experts have expressed dismay at the choice of Mathias Cormann, a former finance minister in an Australian government with a record of strong hostility to climate action, as secretary general of the OECD, an international institution that advises rich countries on policy and poor countries on how to become wealthier.

Jennifer Morgan, the executive director of Greenpeace International, said: “We have little confidence in Cormann’s ability to ensure the OECD is a leader in tackling the climate crisis, when he has an atrocious record on the issue. If the OECD is to fulfil its mandate, it must confront the climate emergency, arguably the biggest social justice issue of our time.”

Nick Mabey, the chief executive of the E3G thinktank, said: “OECD countries have just sent a dangerous signal by appointing someone with a track record of dismantling climate policy to run their main advisory body. This appointment will lower pressure on the leaders of other international institutions to undertake radical reforms to tackle the climate crisis.”

Developing countries were particularly concerned. Saleem Huq, the director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development in Bangladesh, said: “The appointment of a climate sceptic from Australia to head the OECD is very disappointing and will reduce the credibility of the OECD as an institution in the eyes of developing countries.”

The UK government was also sharply criticised for its role in backing Cormann’s election as it prepares to host UN climate talks in Glasgow this November.

Mohamed Adow, the director of the Power Shift Africa thinktank, said: “It’s terrible to see a politician with such a poor record on climate action getting the job of leading the OECD. What makes it worse is that apparently his appointment was backed by the UK, despite them [being] about to host the crucial Cop26 summit.”

Cormann opposed climate action on many occasions while a government minister between 2013 and 2020. He voted down motions to declare a climate emergency, called net zero targets “extremist”, “reckless” and “irresponsible”, spoke in favour of the coal industry and against wind energy, and was criticised for telling young climate strikers to “stick to school”.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

kassy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1905 on: March 12, 2021, 06:59:15 PM »
I guess they like his previous work...  ::)
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.