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Author Topic: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond  (Read 383115 times)

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #400 on: December 07, 2015, 02:10:35 PM »
Fossil of the Day winners, Day 3:  IMO and ICAO
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Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #401 on: December 07, 2015, 06:45:43 PM »
Big move under way for lowering the target to 1.5C (down from 2C).

Under the current INDC layout -- the median temp increase would be 3.5C (with caveats as already listed in this thread). Under the most optimistic scenario, we still won't reach that 1.5C mark. 2C is getting dangerously tenuous as it is.

Political games.....

Laurent

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #402 on: December 07, 2015, 09:29:03 PM »
Am I not calculating correctly or is it our dear scientific community that has a problem ?

2°c ? so we are at 1°c, it does globally increase 0,1°c/year that mean 2°c is in 10 years 2025...
There is absolutely no way we will limit 2°c and even more 1,5°c ...

The real limit is around 0,5°c ... where it seems that the ice start to melt in the Arctic in summer.


Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #403 on: December 07, 2015, 10:07:18 PM »
Kerry signals U.S. support for ambitious 1.5-degree goal in climate deal
Quote
PARIS — The United States is in favor of incorporating an ambitious 1.5-degree Celsius goal into the climate agreement at the ongoing U.N. Climate Summit in Paris, also known as COP21, provided that the language wouldn't replace the previously agreed-upon 2-degree target, Secretary of State John Kerry told Mashable on Monday.
http://mashable.com/2015/12/07/kerry-climate-target-cop21/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #404 on: December 07, 2015, 10:11:41 PM »
Am I not calculating correctly or is it our dear scientific community that has a problem ?

2°c ? so we are at 1°c, it does globally increase 0,1°c/year that mean 2°c is in 10 years 2025...
There is absolutely no way we will limit 2°c and even more 1,5°c ...

The real limit is around 0,5°c ... where it seems that the ice start to melt in the Arctic in summer.

I think they mean they are in favor of a "faster slowing" of emissions, along with increases in carbon-capture research, development, and action.
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Laurent

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #405 on: December 07, 2015, 10:25:10 PM »
I think I understood what you did, except that there is a few billion people that were trusting the scientists (and politicians) to help them, save them. But they won't, even with carbone capture and they will have a hard time to define a physical threshold limit because there is no "safe" threshold limit, the one that does make sense is related to the Arctic but they do not seem to think that way... (yet)

Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #406 on: December 07, 2015, 10:25:39 PM »
If the agreement doesn't have teeth, the headline number is meaningless. Hell, let's slap 1C on there. I mean, we want that too, right?

It's just political posturing and false appeasement to the island nations thusfar.

Laurent

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #407 on: December 07, 2015, 10:30:28 PM »
agree

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #408 on: December 07, 2015, 11:04:34 PM »
Am I not calculating correctly or is it our dear scientific community that has a problem ?

2°c ? so we are at 1°c, it does globally increase 0,1°c/year that mean 2°c is in 10 years 2025...
There is absolutely no way we will limit 2°c and even more 1,5°c ...

The real limit is around 0,5°c ... where it seems that the ice start to melt in the Arctic in summer.

With so many different scales I am not sure what we are reporting sometimes, but in Reply #641 of the "Global Surface Air Temperatures" thread James Lovejoy stated:

"Preliminary results through December 14, (Nick Stokes through Dec 4, and Karsten Haustein for forecasts through December 14), suggest that December will blow the October Anomalies away.   Anomalies over 0.7C, suggesting GISS anomalies of 1.2-1.3C.

That need to be taken with two big cautions however.  (1)  This is just the 1st 1/2 (approx) of December, and (2) most of it is from forecasts, the forecasts can give an idea, but things change.

Even so, I'll add another 9 to the chances of 2015 taking the record for warmest year since global records were kept to 99.99%."

So, if we use the GISS anomalies as a guide maybe we are further down the rabbit hole than most people think.
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crandles

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #409 on: December 07, 2015, 11:32:43 PM »
Am I not calculating correctly or is it our dear scientific community that has a problem ?

2°c ? so we are at 1°c, it does globally increase 0,1°c/year that mean 2°c is in 10 years 2025...
There is absolutely no way we will limit 2°c and even more 1,5°c ...

The real limit is around 0,5°c ... where it seems that the ice start to melt in the Arctic in summer.

More like 0,1°C to 0.17°C per decade not year. But we are committed to at least 0.5°C, so it it hard to believe we are not already committed to 1.5°C. Actually reaching  1.5°C or 2°C is much further off than your message calculation seems to indicate. Committment probably matters more.


Strictly being committed to 1.5°C does not mean we will reach 1.5°C - if we learn to do substantial negative emissions very soon after we reach the committed to 1.5°C then we wouldn't actually reach 1.5°C. However that also seems such a hopelessly pie in the sky belief that perhaps the meaning of your message is still appropriate. We certainly haven't got until 2115 or even 2065.




Laurent

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #410 on: December 08, 2015, 12:14:44 AM »
0,1°c per decade... really just from memory last year was at 0,85°C ? that mean 0,15°c/year... we have to expect an increase in the speed and acceleration. Ok I know there is El Nino but... well we will see, you understand my point.

If you want to debate the cop, you can try here : http://app.opencop.org/

Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #411 on: December 08, 2015, 12:47:54 AM »
Longer-term trend is 0.2C/decade. There's certainly support for 0.3-0.4C/decade with the way emissions are going and with natural variability now releasing the brakes.

But that might partially miss the point. I mean, nobody lives in the Southern Ocean. I'm personally more interested in N. Hem. temps -- specifically N. Hem. land temps. Those have been going up considerably faster. Those have averaged +1.25C above 1951-1980 temps (>1.75C above preindustrial) so far this year.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #412 on: December 08, 2015, 01:08:11 AM »
If (per the linked article) the CoP21 negotiators are assuming that CO₂ emissions in 2015 declined by 0.6 percent then why is the attached 6-month Keeling Curve well above the BAU scenario?  Either emissions are not actually lower than BAU, or worse, climate sensitivity is higher than the experts expect:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/climate/2015-paris-climate-talks/paris-climate-talks-highlights-from-the-start-of-2nd-week

Extract: "The “high-level segment” of the Paris climate talks began on Monday, and new data was released that puts possible changes in context.
•   The Global Carbon Project, a collaboration that studies emissions of greenhouse gases, released new data on Monday indicating only a slight rise in 2014 and a projected decline in 2015. The decline of 0.6 percent for this year, should it come to pass, would come at a time when the global economy is growing. That’s unusual, reports Justin Gillis and Chris Buckley."

See also:
http://www.npr.org/2015/12/07/458543432/small-surprising-dip-in-worlds-carbon-emissions-traced-to-china
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crandles

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #413 on: December 08, 2015, 01:09:46 AM »
You asked "Am I not calculating correctly"?
Well yes you certainly don't do trend calculations by picking two adjacent years with different El Nino conditions.

I thought your question should be answered but that shouldn't just be by pointing out one major error which might leave impression what you were saying was flawed when I don't think it is. There were two major errors that acted in opposite directions. Sorry if this complicates matters but if you ask a question like "Am I not calculating correctly" perhaps getting an answer shouldn't be a surprise?

What 'we will see', I am not very sure, but a five fold or more increase in the trend rate of warming any time soon and sustained over a decade or more would be a big surprise. A small acceleration in trend seems to have been much anticipated over the last 20? years and hasn't so far arrived. That certainly doesn't guarantee we won't get a small acceleration but I don't see anything arguing for a big acceleration.

crandles

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #414 on: December 08, 2015, 01:13:08 AM »
If (per the linked article) the CoP21 negotiators are assuming that CO₂ emissions in 2015 declined by 0.6 percent then why is the attached 6-month Keeling Curve well above the BAU scenario?  Either emissions are not actually lower than BAU, or worse, climate sensitivity is higher than the experts expect:


Or maybe natural emissions are much higher as a result of El Nino while antho emissions have done as they said?

One years' CO2 data (or even any number of years CO2 data) does not have implications for climate sensitivity estimates. Edit: Maybe several  years CO2 data may have relevance for carbon cycle sensitivity is what you were trying to say there?

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #415 on: December 08, 2015, 01:19:17 AM »
Am I not calculating correctly or is it our dear scientific community that has a problem ?

2°c ? so we are at 1°c, it does globally increase 0,1°c/year that mean 2°c is in 10 years 2025...
There is absolutely no way we will limit 2°c and even more 1,5°c ...

The real limit is around 0,5°c ... where it seems that the ice start to melt in the Arctic in summer.

More like 0,1°C to 0.17°C per decade not year. But we are committed to at least 0.5°C, so it it hard to believe we are not already committed to 1.5°C. Actually reaching  1.5°C or 2°C is much further off than your message calculation seems to indicate. Committment probably matters more.


Strictly being committed to 1.5°C does not mean we will reach 1.5°C - if we learn to do substantial negative emissions very soon after we reach the committed to 1.5°C then we wouldn't actually reach 1.5°C. However that also seems such a hopelessly pie in the sky belief that perhaps the meaning of your message is still appropriate. We certainly haven't got until 2115 or even 2065.

Per the attached NASA data at the end of Oct 2015 the GIS Temp LOTI v3 at 12m was already at 1.063C above pre-industrial and it looks like both November & December 2015 will be well above that value.  So since global warming is non-linear who says that the current rate is increase is following the old trend line?
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crandles

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #416 on: December 08, 2015, 01:59:45 AM »
Longer-term trend is 0.2C/decade. There's certainly support for 0.3-0.4C/decade with the way emissions are going and with natural variability now releasing the brakes.

Wouldn't particularly want to argue between 0.17C/decade I mentioned and your 'longer-term trend is 0.2C/ decade'. I am sure there are projections for 0.3-0.4C/decade on BAU scenarios not far in the future. e.g.
http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/fig9-14.htm
Taking the top of several models all SRES range gives that sort of rate for 2000 to 2020, but that is using the uncertainty range to the max. While the highest possible rate of rise could be as high as 0.4C/decade, over the next couple of decades I don't think our best estimate of the expected rate would be as high as 0.35C/decade.

>"with the way emissions are going"
Well that is a little vague, eg anthro or anthro + natural, also you could be referring to recent announcement that emissions are flat or have fallen for last year. The impression is you are asserting a strong rise. I suppose I have no real complaint as it is only asserting what has actually happened and recent fall is not expected to continue.

>"with natural variability now releasing the brakes"
I certainly wouldn't deny this is a likely future development. However, is there evidence that the airborne fraction has actually started to change upward? Doesn't the way you have expressed this give the impression it has definitely already started rather than a position of being a likely future development?

(Sorry if I am grumpy and complaining. Truth rather than over doing the alarm seems a sensible precaution against alarmism. If we don't challenge what we think we know, how do we know whether we are deluding ourselves in either direction?)

crandles

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #417 on: December 08, 2015, 02:05:34 AM »

Per the attached NASA data at the end of Oct 2015 the GIS Temp LOTI v3 at 12m was already at 1.063C above pre-industrial and it looks like both November & December 2015 will be well above that value.  So since global warming is non-linear who says that the current rate is increase is following the old trend line?

If you are going to look at a short period like a month or two or even a year or two, then I think it essential we adjust out El Nino effects. Do that and the 1.063C is noticeable reduced. With such an adjustment or by using longer term trend to reduce the need for El Nino adjustment, is there any evidence an acceleration has already started?

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #418 on: December 08, 2015, 02:19:55 AM »
Not my intention to argue here the science/physical possibilities ;) , just to say it is heartening for the world's biggest emitters to even discuss a 1.5°C target at Paris, as a means of saying they recognize a much stronger effort is needed.

Paris climate talks: biggest polluters back tougher warming target
US, China, Canada and EU among big carbon emitters at UN summit supporting 1.5C target to protect most vulnerable countries such as small island states.
Quote
The world’s biggest climate polluters rallied around a stronger target for limiting warming on Monday, saying they were open to the 1.5C goal endorsed by the most vulnerable countries.

In the final push to a climate agreement, the US, Canada, China and the European Union declared they were now on board with demands from African countries to adopt an even more ambitious goal to limit warming.
...
In the last few days, the 1.5C target has become short-hand for reaching a more ambitious agreement that would keep pace with real-time changes already underway on the ground.

“We are working with other countries on some formulation that would include 1.5C,” Todd Stern, the State Department envoy, told a press conference.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/07/paris-climate-talks-biggest-polluters-back-tougher-warming-target
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #419 on: December 08, 2015, 02:47:29 AM »

Per the attached NASA data at the end of Oct 2015 the GIS Temp LOTI v3 at 12m was already at 1.063C above pre-industrial and it looks like both November & December 2015 will be well above that value.  So since global warming is non-linear who says that the current rate is increase is following the old trend line?

If you are going to look at a short period like a month or two or even a year or two, then I think it essential we adjust out El Nino effects. Do that and the 1.063C is noticeable reduced. With such an adjustment or by using longer term trend to reduce the need for El Nino adjustment, is there any evidence an acceleration has already started?

First, the 1.063C value is the year to date anomaly value through Oct 2015 (& is not a monthly value).

Second, I concur that there is variability and it is difficult to say in a non-stationary situation what is happening with high certainty; which to me is an argument for erring on the side of greater safety rather than on the side of least drama.

Third, regarding evidence that net positive feedback may currently be accelerating:
(a) See the evidence discussed in the: "2015 -The Year of the Feedback?" at:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1419.0.html
(b) Per the attached MEI index, our current El Nino is significantly weaker than either the 82-83 or the 97-98 El Nino events; which provides some support to the idea that much of the 1.063C value is due to global warming rather than only to a Super El Nino event.
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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #420 on: December 08, 2015, 05:37:42 AM »
Emissions are flat or has fallen? Have I missed something?
The most recent I read was an estimated range between -1,6% to +0,5%.
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2892.html
Paywalled but there are som more info about the uncertainties in the supplementary.
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/extref/nclimate2892-s1.pdf

I'd rather see these drop:


---
I might be ovely focused on my own country, but that's what I see IRL so please bare with me.
People in general doesn't understand averages or anomalies and definately not on the global scale. That won't convince them to do anything.

Beeing able to harvest fresh potatoes in southern Sweden in December might?
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,179.msg66727.html#msg66727
That forecast was right. We are running out of colors in our anomalies. It was the same last "winter".
First picture, the anomalies for Sunday.
Second picture, anomalies for 2015 up to yesterday.
Third picture, mean temperature from 35 stations.
(1961-1990)

OT again, sorry. Let's hope they do really well in Paris.

OrganicSu

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #421 on: December 08, 2015, 06:58:22 AM »
I am terrified - I counted the Guardian as an allay and yesterday's article claiming a fall in emissions is disinformation. It is especially hurtful to be released during COP21. It makes it so much harder to discuss using real/important facts. It negates a sense of urgency by giving the impression that things are going in the right direction.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/07/global-emissions-to-fall-for-first-time-during-a-period-of-economic-growth

Cumulative emissions in the air are increasing as per the Keeling curve.
Yearly emissions even with a slight decrease are still on BAU path.
The carbon sinks cannot keep up with these emissions and emitting this year 99.4% of last years emissions is still suicidal.

Imagine you live in a castle and some mad man has been taking away 1000 stones from the walls every year, but this year only takes 994 stones. Do not celebrate that. Do not give the message that the problem is being fixed.

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #422 on: December 08, 2015, 08:04:34 AM »
OrganicSu, I haven't seen that article but it refers to the same study as I posted above, but with a complimentary share in the article, thanks! I'll save that projection...

Considering all of those deniers who only read headlines, that headline is really bad.

Laurent

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #423 on: December 08, 2015, 10:39:49 AM »
Sir David King ICE ARC COP21 Paris


Chief Scientific Advisor to the UK Government, Sir David King, presents at COP21 as part of the EU funded ICE, Climate, Economics - Arctic Research on Change presentation at the EU Pavilion at COP21 in Paris.

The sea level that is drawn does not mach my graphs like these ones :

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #424 on: December 08, 2015, 12:22:28 PM »
Laurent, I just had a quick browse through that video, but at least the SLR graph in the middle comes from Levermann 2013. It has no timescale, just temperature correlated to SLR.
http://www.pnas.org/content/110/34/13745.full.pdf
Fig 1E attached.
Quote
Paleo-Evidence
To compare the model results with past sea-level anomalies for
the temperature range up to 4 °C, we focus on three previous periods for which the geological record provides reasonable constraints on warmer climates and higher sea levels than preindustrial: the middle Pliocene, marine isotope stage 11, and the LIG (Fig. 1E).

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #425 on: December 08, 2015, 06:16:52 PM »
OrganicSu, I haven't seen that article but it refers to the same study as I posted above, but with a complimentary share in the article, thanks! I'll save that projection...

Considering all of those deniers who only read headlines, that headline is really bad.

Love the non-mention of upward revisions in the previous two years (1.1% to 1.7% in 2013 and 0.0 to 0.6% in 2014) and the massive (13%!) uncertainty in Chinese emissions -- also note massive consumption drop to 2-3%/a over the last year. Decoupling my ass.


Seriously, are people willing to accept this stuff at face value even after multiple massive upward revisions in Chinese emissions over the past few years (including the recent one)?

Slowing I can buy -- after all, there was a period of outright contraction in industrial output earlier this year. But the claims of a huge change in decarbonization and decoupling are extremely premature -- if not outright farcical, just like the 1.5C "target" being thrown around right now. We'll only know a few years from now.

In the meantime, Mauna Loa is a better gauge after ENSO adjustment.

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #426 on: December 08, 2015, 07:47:00 PM »
Maybe they are just trying to be positive.
But maintaining a positive attitude, while beeing lazy, will fail. It doesn't matter if you want to be successful in marathon, or be successful in mitigation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #427 on: December 08, 2015, 08:42:29 PM »
New coal: Is there a market?
Quote
Real-world market conditions make it unlikely that plans to expand the use of coal around the world will come to full fruition, according to several reports presented at the UN climate summit in Paris (COP21).

While the potential of new coal investments to take the world well past 2C of global warming has been noted at the summit, the real world experience of coal’s decreasing viability has been less well discussed.
...
The context for decisions about coal are changing. Two coal plants are shelved or cancelled for every one plant built worldwide, according to a forensic bottom-up analysis by specialists CoalSwarm, which examined every plant around the world planned, permitted, built or cancelled from 2010 to the present day. In India, the figure jumps to six shelved or cancelled for every one built.
http://eciu.net/press-releases/2015/new-coal-is-there-a-market
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #428 on: December 09, 2015, 01:26:17 AM »
Once a fixture, climate sceptics say they are being stifled in Paris
Quote
On Monday night, Morano showed his new film, "Climate Hustle" in a Paris cinema, featuring climate-sceptic scientists. Police cordoned off the road leading to the venue as guests lined up and a demonstrator hung a banner on a nearby gate reading "Welcome Heartland Institute Scum".
http://www.trust.org/item/20151208061756-fz5v9/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #429 on: December 09, 2015, 03:15:52 PM »
Per the linked article, the rich countries (the EU & USA) are still pressuring the developing countries to shoulder equal climate change responsibility, while key developing countries are pushing back (to require developed countries to accept responsibility for their past free emissions upon which they built their wealth):

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/developing-world-spurning-key-us-climate-demand-19780

Extract: "Under the U.S.-backed vision for a new approach to global climate diplomacy, which gained strong traction in the leadup to the Paris talks, all countries would contribute to the fight against climate change, with wealthier countries helping poorer ones reduce their impacts.
China, India, Brazil and South Africa generally agree that they must address climate pollution, but they want clear distinctions between nations based on wealth to remain in any climate agreement, which could limit their accountability."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #430 on: December 09, 2015, 04:17:00 PM »
The following is an update on CoP21.  However, people should realize that if recognizes a goal of 1.5C, this will contribute to more future litigation if/when we blow past this goal:

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/12/09/world/europe/ap-climate-countdown-the-latest.html?_r=0

Extract: "The talks in Paris are scheduled to end in two days. The draft document released by U.N. climate agency Wednesday is 29 pages, down from a 48-page version released Saturday.
It does not resolve the question of the long-term goal of the accord — whether it is to remove carbon emissions from the economy altogether, or just reduce them.
Nor does it resolve whether governments are aiming at reducing overall global temperatures by 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial times or closer to 2 degrees.
There are about 100 places where there are decisions still to be made — either multiple options in brackets, or blank spaces."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #431 on: December 09, 2015, 05:09:05 PM »
Climate coalition breaks cover in Paris to push for binding and ambitious deal
Quote
A coalition representing more than 100 countries, formed in secrecy six months ago, has emerged at key UN talks in Paris to push for a legally binding global and ambitious deal on climate change.

The “high ambition coalition” speaks for the majority of the 195 countries at the crunch conference and consists of 79 African, Caribbean and Pacific countries, the US and all of EU member states. But notable exceptions include major developing countries such as China and India.

The group is focusing on at least four key issues. They want an agreement at Paris to be legally binding; to set a clear long-term goal on global warming that is in line with scientific advice; to introduce a mechanism for reviewing countries’ emissions commitments every five years; and create a unified system for tracking countries’ progress on meeting their carbon goals.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/08/coalition-paris-push-for-binding-ambitious-climate-change-deal
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Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #432 on: December 09, 2015, 06:34:25 PM »
New text:

http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/da01.pdf

Definitely not what I would call "ambitious".

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #433 on: December 09, 2015, 08:06:08 PM »
Saudi Arabia accused of trying to wreck Paris climate deal
One of the world’s largest oil producers is getting in the way of a deal and making implausible objections, say delegates and campaigners.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/08/saudi-arabia-accused-of-trying-to-wreck-the-paris-climate-deal
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werther

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #434 on: December 09, 2015, 08:34:46 PM »
“Peaking soon, max 95% of 2010 emissions level… “    Man, they haven’t got an idea. If this represents what’s politically/socially possible, it will fail. This unimposed commitment won’t even prohibit CO2 levels to pass 450 ppm. Nor will it counter the baked-in lagged temperature response.

Because Werther’s opinion is that we should pay careful attention to ECS in a sense of risk.

Who will gamble with our unprecedented dumping of the fossil energy condensate into the troposphere? Most of us will, our illusionary individuality projects an ‘après moi la déluge’-attitude.

Thus, in the realm of general providence, our fate is quite obvious. Leaving us the personal providence as a haven. May we be strong and generous while weathering the storm.

Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #435 on: December 09, 2015, 09:51:37 PM »
Love this little gem:

Hey guys, let's take a five year holiday before the agreement comes into effect:

This Agreement shall enter into force on the thirtieth day after the date on which at least [50][60]
Parties to the Convention have  deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession [, but not earlier
than 1 January 2020].] 

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #436 on: December 10, 2015, 01:30:44 AM »
India’s New Paris Pledge: We’ll Cut Back On Coal If We Get Help With Renewables Now
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Until now, India’s position at the Paris climate talks had been that it will massively increase coal production and use without limit. As a result, the country has not been willing to embrace a peak in carbon pollution, even though that will ultimately be crucial if India and the world are going to avoid simultaneous, catastrophic impacts.

But now, senior Indian negotiator Ajay Mathur “says his country will cut back its use of coal, if sufficient cash for renewables emerges from a Paris deal,” the BBC has reported.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/12/09/3728782/india-paris-coal-renewables/
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #437 on: December 10, 2015, 04:20:11 AM »
Love this little gem:

Hey guys, let's take a five year holiday before the agreement comes into effect:

This Agreement shall enter into force on the thirtieth day after the date on which at least [50][60]
Parties to the Convention have  deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession [, but not earlier
than 1 January 2020].]

 ::)
Let's rest into shape.

Do I have to read the rest of that pdf? I'm sleepy.

Edit; Did browse through it but this article might be more interesting.
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35051487
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Observers were unsure as to how the parties would react to the new text.

"This is the first time the French fingerprints will be on the process, and that's a risky business," said Dr Diarmuid Torney from Dublin City University, who is an observer at these talks.

"We saw [this] earlier this year at a previous climate meeting in Bonn when the co-chairs tried to come up with a shorter text and the response from parties was to re-insert all their favourite parts back into the text. There could be fireworks."

Mr Fabius said that the remaining difficulties centred on differentiation, finance and the level of ambition.
Isn't it always?

Cop-Outs and Denial: COP21

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we must be smart enough to make a distinction between access to power and influence over power
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you assholes have been here in twenty years saying the same thing
« Last Edit: December 10, 2015, 10:21:43 AM by Sleepy »

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #438 on: December 10, 2015, 03:57:05 PM »
Folks, the Paris document was, from the beginning, to be agreed to in 2015 and implemented starting in 2020.  This is not a new development.  Countries can't change overnight! -- though of course change is happening already.  :)

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/future/index_en.htm
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #439 on: December 10, 2015, 06:06:19 PM »
Sigmentnow, your'e correct. And we do see a course change.
But too late in my opinion, I don't know how many times I've said that we should have started ten years ago, nowadays I must learn to say fifteen years ago.

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #440 on: December 10, 2015, 07:13:10 PM »
It's year 2100. Are there crocodiles in Sweden?

http://sverigesradio.se/sida/avsnitt/647008?programid=2054

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As world leaders meet in Paris to find a way to keep climate change under control, we wind the clock forward...

To help us imagine how the area around Stockholm City Hall - and beyond, might look 85 years from now, we take a stroll with Dr. Henrik Carlsen, a senior research fellow at Stockholm Environment Institute.

Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #441 on: December 10, 2015, 07:21:48 PM »
Folks, the Paris document was, from the beginning, to be agreed to in 2015 and implemented starting in 2020.  This is not a new development.  Countries can't change overnight! -- though of course change is happening already.  :)

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/future/index_en.htm

Agreed to by who? The EU and US? I guarantee none of the developing countries wanted to sign on to something like that. In fact, the vast majority have been arguing against this "5 year holiday" (not my wording).

Fact of the matter is: There is no ambition to meet 2C. Certainly not 1.5C. To even leave it in there and have developed countries "throw in their support" seems more like a repository for feels. We can't get developed countries to even get close to matching their voluntary commitments from 2009 wrt finance. Yet all I hear is "This time it's different."

We've been waiting since 1992 for this approach to deliver meaningful results. It hasn't. It's gotten us 23 years of failure. End of story.

Totally agree with Hansen on this meeting so far.
« Last Edit: December 10, 2015, 07:29:14 PM by Csnavywx »

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #442 on: December 10, 2015, 07:51:17 PM »
Folks, the Paris document was, from the beginning, to be agreed to in 2015 and implemented starting in 2020.  This is not a new development.  Countries can't change overnight! -- though of course change is happening already.  :)

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/future/index_en.htm

Agreed to by who? The EU and US? I guarantee none of the developing countries wanted to sign on to something like that. In fact, the vast majority have been arguing against this "5 year holiday" (not my wording).
...

Agreed to by all countries who signed the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol -- numbering 195 and 192, respectively.

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In 1992, countries joined an international treaty, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, to cooperatively consider what they could do to limit average global temperature increases and the resulting climate change, and to cope with whatever impacts were, by then, inevitable.

By 1995, countries realized that emission reductions provisions in the Convention were inadequate. They launched negotiations to strengthen the global response to climate change, and, two years later, adopted the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol legally binds developed countries to emission reduction targets. The Protocol’s first commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012. The second commitment period began on 1 January 2013 and will end in 2020.
http://unfccc.int/essential_background/items/6031.php

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The United Nations Climate Change Conference, Durban 2011, delivered a breakthrough on the international community's response to climate change. In the second largest meeting of its kind, the negotiations advanced, in a balanced fashion, the implementation of the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, the Bali Action Plan, and the Cancun Agreements. The outcomes included a decision by Parties to adopt a universal legal agreement on climate change as soon as possible, and no later than 2015. The President of COP17/CMP7 Maite Nkoana-Mashabane said: "What we have achieved in Durban will play a central role in saving tomorrow, today."
http://unfccc.int/meetings/durban_nov_2011/meeting/6245.php

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The UN Climate Change Conference in Durban was a turning point in the climate change negotiations. In Durban, governments clearly recognized the need to draw up the blueprint for a fresh universal, legal agreement to deal with climate change beyond 2020, where all will play their part to the best of their ability and all will be able to reap the benefits of success together.
http://unfccc.int/key_steps/durban_outcomes/items/6825.php.
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #443 on: December 10, 2015, 09:19:22 PM »
Draft delayed today.
But this came a minute ago.
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Differentiation, finance and ambition are still in brackets (disagreement), says Fabius, of new text, which we’re expecting when we finishes talking.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #444 on: December 10, 2015, 09:30:00 PM »
Meet The People Trolling The F*** Out Of The Paris Climate Talks
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The awards begin each night with Ilic leading the crowd in the “Fossil of the Day anthem” to the tune of the Jurassic Park theme music.
...
Saudi Arabia has dominated the awards so far, but as of Wednesday, the U.S. was in second place.
...
Hmaidan said the awards aren’t just for jokes — in some cases they are actually an effective push for change. He pointed to Belgium, which won a Fossil award earlier in the talks. The award made headlines in Belgium, and over the following days the country became a more productive negotiator, Hmaidan said.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimdalrympleii/meet-the-people-trolling-the-fuck-out-of-the-paris-climate-t

Fossil of the Day Song Lyrics (in image form)
http://www.climatenetwork.org/image/fossil-day-song-lyrics
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #445 on: December 10, 2015, 09:43:31 PM »
As we have already passed 1,5°C, should we be happy for a political victory in Paris?
Or the positive angle, maybe six years.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #446 on: December 10, 2015, 09:43:49 PM »
Paris Climate Talks Are Starting to Resemble a Game of Civilization
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Here’s why I think this group has formed: Supporting small island states by literally building them new and taller islands would be much cheaper in the long-run than providing support for the increasingly upwardly mobile major developing countries. Though India in particular occupies the moral middle ground in Paris, the emergence of the High Ambition Coalition has pushed it firmly on the defensive. Other players, like Australia, have been shunted to the sidelines.

The Guardian reports that the High Ambition Coalition has been forming in secret for months now, revealing itself publicly for the first time Wednesday. That may be because, in the latest draft of the Paris negotiating text, it will take only 50 or 60 countries to approve the overall deal. The High Ambition Coalition, by various accounts, may already have more than 90, with new members being added in real time.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/12/10/paris_climate_talks_are_like_a_turn_based_strategy_game.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #447 on: December 10, 2015, 09:54:04 PM »
Here is the link to the new Paris draft agreement: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/da02.pdf
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...
Notes with concern that the estimated aggregate greenhouse gas emission levels resulting from the intended nationally determined contributions in 2025 and 2030 do not fall within least-cost 2  ̊C scenarios, and that much greater emission reduction efforts than those associated with the intended nationally determined contributions will be required in the period after 2025 and 2030 in order to hold the temperature rise to below 2  ̊C or 1.5  ̊C above pre-industrial levels;
...
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #448 on: December 10, 2015, 10:03:53 PM »
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In order to achieve the long-term global temperature goal set in Article 2 of this Agreement, Parties aim to reach the peaking of greenhouse house gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country Parties, and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter towards reaching greenhouse gas emissions neutrality in the second half of the century on the basis of equity and guided by science in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication.

Blah, blah, blah.

1,5°C is absolutely at the extreme end. Impossibly extreme considering the above.


Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #449 on: December 11, 2015, 12:34:12 AM »

Okay, thanks for the additional details there, Sigmet. I stand corrected on that point.

Problem I see here is... Kyoto was an near total failure and there were no binding requirements on the developing world. So, it's still quite literally a "5 year holiday" because we're (at a minimum) settling for 5 additional years of largely failed Kyoto policies. The G77 has been very vocal in calling for the removal of that bracketed phrase from the text.