Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond  (Read 412993 times)

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #750 on: August 03, 2016, 02:34:09 AM »
Massachusetts' Ambitious Clean Energy Bill Jolts Offshore Wind Prospects
Quote
Doubling down on its commitment to renewable energy, the Massachusetts Legislature overwhelmingly passed a new energy measure that would create the nation's most ambitious offshore wind energy target.

The bill, approved in the final hours of the legislative session Sunday night, would require local utilities to get 1,600 megawatts of their combined electricity from wind farms far offshore––roughly equivalent to three average-sized coal-fired power plants. The law requires the utilities to line up contracts for that energy by 2027. They also would have to arrange for even more clean energy from other sources, including hydropower, by 2022. Gov. Charlie Baker, a Republican, is expected to sign it.

There's about 1,800 megawatts of renewable energy (mostly solar) currently installed in Massachusetts.

The bill would contribute to the state's broader effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent by 2050—a target that effectively requires the state to rely almost entirely on renewables for electricity. And it could also have broader implications for the nation's offshore wind industry, which has yet to make its first splash.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02082016/massachusetts-ambitious-clean-energy-bill-jolts-offshore-wind-prospects
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #751 on: August 06, 2016, 10:02:03 PM »
Global climate deal likely to enter into force in 2016
Quote
OSLO, Aug 5 (Reuters) - A global agreement on climate change looks likely to enter into force this year, a study showed on Friday, making it harder for Republican Donald Trump to pull out if he wins the U.S. presidency.

Countries accounting for 54 percent of greenhouse gas emissions have signalled intent to ratify this year, according to the tally of national pledges by the Marshall Islands which is a strong backer of the plan agreed in Paris in December.

That is just a fraction short of the required 55 percent of emissions, and support from at least 55 nations, the Pacific island nation said. The deal formally enters into force 30 days after the twin threshold is crossed.

"What we agreed in Paris at the end of last year will likely now have the force of the law by the end of this year," Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine wrote in a report compiled by her foreign ministry.
http://news.trust.org/item/20160805121707-1inrx/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 242
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #752 on: August 08, 2016, 04:53:48 PM »
Theresa May appears to be trying to bribe UK voters into approving the expanded use of hydrofracking for shale gas production in the UK (leaks from such operations are a significant source of methane gas emissions).  As the UK is existing from the EU they need not comply with the Paris Pact limits if they choose not to:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/06/fracking-local-people-payments-theresa-may

Extract: "The prime minister has intervened to allow people who live near sites used for shale gas exploration to be given cash payments so that they benefit from the developments.
In rewriting George Osborne’s plans, Theresa May has ensured local people can share in proceeds from fracking projects. Previous proposals for the Shale Wealth Fund only included cash for community trusts and councils.

A British Geological Survey study of shale gas across northern England estimated a shale gas resource of 1,300 trillion cubic feet. This compares with the current UK annual gas consumption of around 2.5 trillion cubic feet."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 242
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #753 on: August 08, 2016, 05:13:46 PM »
The linked Carbon Brief article discusses a UN report that highlights the challenges that aviation will have in controlling its CO2 emissions by 2050 (see the attached image):

https://www.carbonbrief.org/aviation-consume-quarter-carbon-budget


Extract: "The aviation industry faces huge challenges if it is to meet its own self-imposed climate change targets, according to a new UN report."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #754 on: August 09, 2016, 08:23:45 PM »
Europe Aims to Close Loophole on Wood Energy
Quote
European officials are moving to close a loophole that promotes the burning of wood for electricity by an industry that’s felling American trees, and a new report they commissioned has laid bare the urgent need for reform.

European Union climate rules treat woody biomass energy as if it’s as clean as solar or wind energy, despite it releasing more heat-trapping carbon dioxide for every megawatt of electricity produced than coal. Producing wood pellets for fuel can also foster climate-changing deforestation.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/europe-aims-to-close-loophole-on-wood-energy-20591
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #755 on: August 11, 2016, 05:23:17 PM »
Social Cost of Carbon upheld in U.S. federal court.

Unprecedented federal court ruling elevates environmental justice over demands of industry
Quote
An unprecedented federal court ruling this week validated the way the Obama administration measures the social cost of carbon (SCC), a decision that could have wide-ranging impacts on the future of the energy industry and the way the United States addresses environmental justice.

On Monday, the Chicago-based 7th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals unanimously rejected an industry-backed request to overturn a 2014 Department of Energy (DOE) regulation that set efficiency standards for refrigerators. In doing so, the court decided that the DOE has the authority to use SCC as part of its overall cost-benefit analysis when considering environmental regulations.
...
In rejecting the industry’s arguments against the DOE’s carbon price, Senior Judge Kenneth Ripple, who was appointed by President Reagan, wrote in the opinion that this “is not a close call.”

“We are convinced that DOE’s engineering analysis, including its use of an analytical model, was neither arbitrary nor capricious,” she wrote.
...
“Just last week a former national security adviser to President George W. Bush acknowledged that climate change was creating refugees and terrorists,” said Doniger. “So the damage from ignoring climate change goes well beyond what we normally think of as ‘environmental’ issues; it’s a core national security issue.”
http://fusion.net/story/335110/federal-court-elevates-social-cost-of-carbon-over-industry-demands/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 242
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #756 on: August 13, 2016, 05:59:16 PM »
The following article includes the statement: "The Paris text is vague about the temperature ceilings and does not say whether 1.5°C or 2°C refers to temperatures in one year, over a decade or longer."  Perhaps to sustain the integrity of our leaders we could all choose to voluntarily define these limits over the coming 10,000 years (otherwise we will collectively need to admit that we were all just kidding ourselves, and overshoot will become the new normal):

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/as-earth-swelters-global-warming-target-in-danger-20597

Extract: "In December, almost 200 nations agreed a radical shift away from fossil fuels with a goal of limiting a rise in average global temperatures to well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times while "pursuing efforts" for 1.5°C (2.7°F).

But 2016 is on track to be the hottest year on record, also buoyed by a natural El Niño event warming the Pacific, according to the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization. The first six months were a sweltering 1.3°C above pre-industrial times.

"It opens a Pandora's box," said Oliver Geden, of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. "The future debate about temperature targets will be about overshoot."
Many climate scientists say the Paris targets are likely to be breached in the coming decades, shifting debate onto whether it will be possible to turn down the global thermostat.

Climate scientists will meet in Geneva from Aug 15-18 to plan a U.N. report about the 1.5°C goal, requested by world leaders in the Paris Agreement for publication in 2018. Overshoot is among the issues in preparatory documents.

Developing nations see overshoot as a betrayal of commitments by the rich and a recipe to worsen heatwaves such as in the Middle East this year or a thaw of Greenland's ice sheet that could swamp island states by raising global sea levels.

"There is a risk that 'overshoot' is a slippery slope towards lower ambition," said Emmanuel de Guzman, secretary of the Climate Commission of the Philippines, which chairs a group of 43 emerging nations in the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF).

The 1.5°C threshold could be in jeopardy within five years on current trends of world greenhouse gas emissions, led by China and the United States, and 2°C within about 25 years, according to U.N. calculations of the amount of carbon that can be emitted into the atmosphere."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 242
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #757 on: August 16, 2016, 05:16:58 PM »
The following links show how the IIASA split-up the EU's Paris Pact commitments between its member states, and with Brexit it will be interesting to see whether the UK honors its prescribed burden:

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/news/160816-EU-effort.html
&
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/news/articles/news_2016072001_en.htm
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #758 on: August 20, 2016, 08:56:48 PM »
Paris climate agreement set to become law this year
> Fifty-seven countries accounting for 57.88% of global emissions have now indicated they will sign agreement before end of 20163
> The Paris climate agreement will become international law by the end of 2016 if countries stick to the promises they have made.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/08/18/paris-climate-agreement-set-to-become-law-this-year/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #759 on: August 24, 2016, 12:57:05 AM »
California climate change law: Extension of greenhouse gas goals OK'd by Assembly
Quote
"Yesterday, big oil bought a full-page ad in the capital city's newspaper of record to halt action on climate," Brown said. "Today, the Assembly Speaker, most Democrats and one brave Republican passed SB 32, rejecting the brazen deception of the oil lobby and their Trump-inspired allies who deny science and fight every reasonable effort to curb global warming."
http://www.mercurynews.com/california/ci_30280954/california-climate-change-assembly-approves-bill-extend-states
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #760 on: August 25, 2016, 07:07:47 PM »
China and the United States are set to jointly announce their ratification of a landmark climate change pact before the G20 summit early next month, the South China Morning Post has learned.
https://www.facebook.com/iHeartClimateScientists/posts/1261599427207815

China and the US account for about 38 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 242
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #761 on: August 29, 2016, 02:11:57 AM »
The linked article promotes Christiana Figueres to be the next UN Secretary General, and I would like to second that position (while the Paris Pact is far from perfect, Figueres delivered what others could not):

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/neil-morisetti-/new-un-s-g-must-realize-that-climate-change-threatens-our-world_b_11746060.html

Extract: "New UN S-G Must Realize That Climate Change Threatens Our World"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #762 on: August 30, 2016, 12:47:45 AM »
California is about to find out what a truly radical climate policy looks like
Quote
The state is already on track to nudge its greenhouse-gas emissions back down to 1990 levels by the year 2020. Then last week, after much fierce debate, the California Assembly and Senate passed a new bill, known as SB 32, that would go much further, mandating an additional 40 percent cut in emissions by 2030....
...
The whole world will be watching California

Up until now, the United States has mostly been tinkering around the edges of climate action. Now the country’s biggest, most populous state is really taking the plunge. Along with the European Union, California has some of the most ambitious climate targets around.

California is essentially offering itself as a guinea pig in the world’s most important policy experiment. Everyone else will be watching and learning from the state’s successes and failures — whether it can develop the needed clean tech, whether it can spur innovation, whether it can control costs and navigate political opposition, whether it can rejigger the grid to accommodate enormous quantities of renewable power. No pressure!
http://www.vox.com/2016/8/29/12650488/california-climate-law-sb-32
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #763 on: August 31, 2016, 03:06:37 AM »
Insurers call on G20 to phase out fossil fuel subsidies by 2020
Quote
Insurers with $1.2 trillion under management called on Tuesday for the Group of 20 to set a timetable to phase out subsidies for fossil fuels by 2020 when they meet at a summit in China this weekend.

Aviva, Aegon NV and MS Amlin said fossil fuel subsidies were at odds with commitments by G20 nations to combat global warming agreed by almost 200 countries last year at a Paris summit.

"Climate change in particular represents the mother of all risks," Aviva CEO Mark Wilson said in a statement.

The companies called on the G20 leaders, who meet in the Chinese city of Hangzhou on Sept. 4-5, to set "a clear timeline for the full and equitable phase-out by all G20 members of all fossil fuel subsidies by 2020".
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-climatechange-idUSKCN1142GN
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #764 on: August 31, 2016, 05:47:19 PM »
China and US set to release review of each other’s fossil fuel subsidies in historic move at G20 summit
https://twitter.com/roadthruparis/status/770950766379008000
(The South China Morning Post article may be readable only by clicking through the above Twitter link.)

So here's a more accessible backgrounder, from May:
US, China to publish fossil fuel subsidy peer reviews
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/05/23/us-china-to-publish-fossil-fuel-subsidy-peer-reviews/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 242
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #765 on: September 02, 2016, 01:20:42 AM »
The linked article on the cost of the USA complying with the Paris Pact is entitled: "Paris deal will cost at least $1.28T — economist"; however, the report indicates that by 2050 the cost could be as high as $5.28 trillion.

http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060042242

Extract: "With signals President Obama is on the verge of formally joining the landmark Paris climate agreement, an environmental economist is investigating whether the United States can actually afford to hold up its end of the deal.

The rough estimate for the cost of hitting the target ranges from $42 billion to $176 billion every year until 2050, according to Columbia University's Geoffrey Heal.

Heal assumes that the goal for cutting greenhouse gas emissions will be reached by extensive use of solar power and wind energy, with the cost of energy storage dictating the overall price tag. His calculations, in a report out this month from the National Bureau of Economic Research, also rely on private-sector investment in energy infrastructure.

Hitting the goal will require government policies. Heal suggests a carbon tax and financial incentives for updates to the electric grid as ways to help the government cut emissions by 50 percent.

However, the pathway to achieve economy-wide reductions of 80 percent or more by 2050 — the ambitious target eyed by the Obama administration and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton — is more of a challenge, Heal notes.

Getting there will require massive investments, between $3.3 trillion and $7.3 trillion, in new energy generating capacity, energy storage and energy transmission, plus a faster transition to battery electric vehicles and "extensive progress" in replacing the residential and commercial uses of fossil fuels.

The total cost of decarbonizing might be as low as $1.28 trillion or as high as $5.28 trillion, Heal predicts.

Heal's research led him to suggest a limited use of renewables and increased use of nuclear power might be a cheaper route to meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

sidd

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4980
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 383
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #766 on: September 02, 2016, 06:42:53 AM »
The nber paper by Heal is very bad. No discussion of savings due to smaller climate impact. High storage costs. Inflated storage capacity requirement. No inclusion of pumped or run of the river hydro. Lowball nuclear costs. Amazing lack of detail in his calculation of estimates. The list goes on.

I can see why it was a "Working Paper". Probably couldnt get it past review into a journal that anyone would read.

I feel stupider for having wasted my time reading it

sidd

sidd

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4980
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 383
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #767 on: September 03, 2016, 09:33:20 AM »
http://en.people.cn/n3/2016/0903/c90000-9109573.html

"Lawmakers voted to adopt "the proposal to review and ratify the Paris Agreement," at the closing meeting of the week-long bimonthly session of the National People's Congress Standing Committee."

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-09/03/c_135656275.htm

"China's top legislature on Saturday ratified the Paris Agreement on climate change, a significant international legal document that outlines post-2020 global climate governance.

Lawmakers voted to adopt "the proposal to review and ratify the Paris Agreement," at the closing meeting of the week-long bimonthly session of the National People's Congress Standing Committee."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-37265541

" ...  into force legally after it is ratified by at least 55 countries, which between them produce 55% of global carbon emissions.
...
When the US - the world's second-largest emitter - follows China's lead, it will bump the tally up to 40%.
Before China made this announcement, the 23 nations that had ratified the agreement accounted for just over 1% of emissions."

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #768 on: September 04, 2016, 02:24:22 AM »
Climate Change Deal: Obama Announces U.S. Joining Landmark Paris Accord
Quote
HANGZHOU, China — President Barack Obama has announced the U.S. will formally join a sweeping global emissions-cutting accord reached last year, boosting efforts to bring the plan into effect by the end of 2016.

The Paris Agreement could well be remembered as "the moment we finally decided to save our planet," Obama said on Saturday in advance of the Group of 20 summit that starts Sunday in the eastern Chinese city of Hangzhou.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/obama-u-s-joins-china-ratifying-paris-climate-accords-n642376
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #769 on: September 04, 2016, 03:45:02 AM »
And... it's signed.  :)

Obama and Chinese President Ratify Landmark Climate Change Agreement 'To Save Our Planet'
Quote
President Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping ratified a sweeping agreement to curb carbon emissions, accelerating the path toward implementation of the 200-nation accord that the world leaders hope to achieve by the end of the year.

After “depositing” their “instruments of acceptance” with United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon -- handing over leather folders with signed documents tucked inside -- Xi and Obama committed to working together to combat climate change.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/obama-chinese-president-xi-ratify-climate-change-agreement/story?id=41842303
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #770 on: September 04, 2016, 07:16:05 PM »
President Obama: The United States Formally Enters the Paris Agreement
Quote
Last December, more than 190 countries adopted the Paris Agreement, the most ambitious climate change agreement in history. In order for the agreement to take effect and enter into force, at least 55 countries representing at least 55 percent of global emissions need to formally join the Agreement.

Today, the United States and China deposited with United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon their respective instruments to join the Paris Agreement, marking a significant contribution towards the early entry into force of the Paris Agreement.

Today’s action by the United States and China to formally join is a significant step towards entry into force this year with countries representing around 40 percent of global emissions having now joined and more than 55 countries having already joined or publicly committed to work towards joining the agreement this year.


Read the President’s remarks:

We are here together because we believe that for all the challenges that we face, the growing threat of climate change could define the contours of this century more dramatically than any other challenge.
...
https://medium.com/@WhiteHouse/president-obama-the-united-states-formally-enters-the-paris-agreement-c02a3853acd9
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1219
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #771 on: September 04, 2016, 07:44:03 PM »
Great news. I imagine it has to be ratified by both houses of Congress. Good luck getting enough republicans to go along.

ghoti

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 766
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #772 on: September 05, 2016, 12:51:28 AM »
Nope! This agreement was carefully crafted specifically so it wouldn't fall into the category of treaty that requires Senate ratification. The entire world knew the US Senate would never ratify a climate change treaty.

sidd

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4980
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 383
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #773 on: September 05, 2016, 01:05:27 AM »
"I imagine it has to be ratified by both houses of Congress."

Oddly, no. The thing was carefully structured to allow the Prez to effectuate via executive order. Not technically a treaty.

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1219
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #774 on: September 05, 2016, 01:47:56 AM »
Thanks for the clarification, its great news indeed!

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #775 on: September 07, 2016, 09:22:24 AM »
The first pic attached is what we (the western wealthy nations) should be agreeing to.
Also adding three more screenshots from a recent lecture by Kevin Andersson.

A Parisian Tale of Triumph and Tragedy.
Kevin Anderson was recently appointed as the Uppsala University's new Zennström visiting Professor of Climate Change Leadership.
http://www.csduppsala.se/ccleadership/
http://www.uu.se/en/media/news/article/?id=7000&area=2,5,7,12,16&typ=artikel&lang=en


If you rather like to use youtube, see the rest here, "Kevin from Manchester" starts at ~30 min:

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2270
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #776 on: September 07, 2016, 09:03:26 PM »
"I imagine it has to be ratified by both houses of Congress."

Oddly, no. The thing was carefully structured to allow the Prez to effectuate via executive order. Not technically a treaty.

Which, of course, means that it is not really binding in any way as all another president has to do to reverse Obama's executive action is to issue another one.  Or even more likely is that we will end up with a status quo president (which is a given as both candidates are just that) and agreement or not it will not be in the interests of either of them to do anything but ignore such agreements - as is standard practice.  But setting aside the fact that this agreement has no legally binding authority of consequence is the fact that the agreement is wholly inadequate to accomplish anything as we are already well on the way to overtaking its goals years before the various countries are going to get around to even implementing it (and it is likely that almost none of them will do even that).

This was a political agreement designed to pacify the public while having minimal effect of the vast industries of civilization, of which many have to be eliminated or undergo vast change in the near term if we were to have any chance of accomplishing meaningful changes in the green house gas numbers.  It is just lipstick on a pig.

We are years away from meaningful efforts - which are increasingly certain to be far to little far to late.  The time for serious change passed long ago and we are well into the period of needing rapid and radical change.  Which transitions soon into the period of it is far too late....

The lack of urgency of even the general type of person who comes to a blog such as this one demonstrates how deep the hole is getting and the problem inherent in giving everyone a shovel.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #777 on: September 17, 2016, 05:50:59 PM »
The officials said it was "remarkable" the agreement could enter into force so soon after being adopted last December - a process that can often take years or decades.

U.N. 'certain' Paris climate deal will enter into force by end-2016
Quote
"When we start to look at the countries that are joining the... agreement and the countries that are going to commit to join before the end of the year, we are absolutely certain that we will have the Paris Agreement on climate change entering into force by the end of 2016," said David Nabarro, Ban Ki-moon's special advisor on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

To take effect, the Paris climate agreement needs ratification by at least 55 parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, representing at least 55 percent of global emissions.

The officials told journalists in New York on Thursday that the United Nations had so far received 27 ratifications covering 39 percent of global emissions, including from the world's top two greenhouse gas emitters, the United States and China.

Among those expected to join formally next week are Mexico and Brazil.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-climatechange-politics-idUSKCN11M10G
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #778 on: September 18, 2016, 07:53:40 AM »
37 years have passed since WCC-1, that is remarkable. There's at least one clear result since then; CFC emissions are dropping and other patented blends by the oligopoly are skyrocketing.

It reminds me of our nuclear history here in Sweden. In the late 40's the state started AB Atomenergi. In the 50's ASEA (founded in 1883) started with nuclear, to make the story extremely short, the state and ASEA made a joint venture with ASEA Atom in the late 60's (Westinghouse), today owned by Toshiba and the remnants of AB Atomenergi (Studsvik) was handed over by the state to Vattenfall, who sold the last pieces in the mid 90's.
Looking at my fellow countrymen, we still maintain the same spirit that was concluded in an official state investigation in 1970: "A high energy consumption can be seen as a sign of high cultural development and high material standards."

In 1973 the state planned to build 24 reactors up until 1990. When the WCC-1 took place, we were more occupied with the upcoming referendum in 1980 when we were about to vote over how we should phase out our nuclear plants. Noteworthy is, that there was NO option to keep commercial nuclear power.

So, where are we now? We will keep our nuclear, even though we have a real alternative today to balance our hydro production.

There was a lawsuit filed against the state on the 15:th of September regarding Vattenfall's dirty lignite business sale to Czech EPH. Let's see if that puts a hold on the sale?
Poor Vattenfall, owned by the state, they wish to be clean and green today. Ah, maybe I'm just an old grumpy man, but I would suppose the lawsuit will have little effect, considering the big picture. We're still running over the same old ground.

Pink Floyd, Wish You Were Here (1975)
"Year after year,
Running over the same old ground.
What have we found?
The same old fears."


AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 242
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #779 on: September 18, 2016, 10:34:27 AM »
The linked article is entitled: "Arctic nations square up as clamour for resources grows":

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/17/arctic-exploitation-battleground

Extract: "With the Danes rebuffing Russia, and Canada laying further claim to the Northwest Passage, rising access to north pole reserves risks flashpoints"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #780 on: September 19, 2016, 05:28:34 AM »
I don't know what Sweden will square up to.

Sweden has been a member of the Arctic Council since it was formed
in 1996. Sweden has chaired the Council during the period 2011– 2013.
The Government has stated that the Arctic Council is the foremost
multilateral forum for issues concerning the Arctic. The Government
has also stated that it will work to strengthen the Arctic Council. The
climate and the environment is one of three main priorities in Sweden’s
strategy for the Arctic region, as well as in the programme for Sweden's
Chairmanship. According to the Government’s Arctic strategy, Sweden
is to work for substantially reduced global emissions of greenhouse gases
and short-lived climate forcers. This is in line with the national objective
of Limited climate impact.


If Sweden really cared and wanted to protect the Arctic we should not sell our lignite business to EPH, we should take the advantage and work to shut them down. It's that simple, even a child will understand the hypocrisy in the above quote.

I wish those who runs that lawsuit against the state all the best. That is the proper thing to do, it's their future.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #781 on: September 20, 2016, 07:57:44 PM »
Most U.S. states on track to meet emissions targets they call burden
Quote
The 27 states challenging Obama’s Clean Power Plan in court say the lower emissions levels it would impose are an undue burden. But most are likely to hit them anyway.

Already, Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma and South Dakota appear to be meeting the CPP's early targets. And changes in the power market, along with policies favoring clean generation, are propelling most of the rest toward timely compliance, according to researchers, power producers and officials, as well as government filings reviewed by Reuters.

“We are seeing reductions earlier than we ever expected,” U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Gina McCarthy said in an interview. “It’s a great sign that the market has already shifted and people are invested in the newer technologies, even while we are in litigation.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climatechange-lawsuit-insight-idUSKCN11O0E1
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #782 on: September 20, 2016, 08:48:39 PM »
Accelerating action on climate change
World watches as Paris Agreement moves closer to ratification in 2016
Quote
Entry into force of the Paris Agreement would send a clear signal to policymakers and industry that the world as a whole is making a move to a low-carbon economy, providing certainty and confidence to investors and governments alike. With news this week that China was the world’s largest investor into low-carbon power generation in 2015, Canada committing to a national price on carbon, and technology giant Apple pledging to run on 100% renewable energy, it is clear that the momentum behind the low-carbon energy transition is growing.
http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2016/september/accelerating-action-on-climate-change.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 242
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #783 on: September 20, 2016, 10:16:54 PM »
Per the linked article the global trade deal "Tisa" could threaten the success of the Paris Pact:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/20/global-trade-deal-threatens-paris-climate-goals-leaked-documents-show

Extract: "Controversial Trade in Services Agreement (Tisa) could make it harder for governments to favour clean energy over fossil fuels as part of efforts to keep temperature rises to 1.5C.

A far-reaching global trade deal being negotiated in secret could threaten the goals of the Paris climate deal by making it harder for governments to favour clean energy over fossil fuels, a leak of the latest negotiating text shows.

The controversial Trade in Services Agreement (Tisa) aims to liberalise trade between the EU and 22 countries across the global services sector, which employs tens of millions in Europe alone.
But a new EU text seen by the Guardian would oblige signatories to work towards “energy neutrality” between renewable energy and fossil fuel power, although amendments proposed by the EU would exempt nuclear power from this rule."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 242
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #784 on: September 21, 2016, 03:04:00 PM »
The linked article indicates that even if/when the Paris Pact is ratified, it would not be "Trump-proof":

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/trump-could-abandon-paris-climate-agreement-20711

Extract: "If enough countries join the U.S., China and Brazil in formally committing to join the pact this year, it’s been reported that the pact would become “Trump-proof.” Legal experts, however, say a Trump administration would have several options for abandoning the agreement during its first term, which would severely jeopardize its potential to succeed.

If elected president, legal precedent and a careful reading of Article 28 in the Paris agreement indicate he would have the power to formally withdraw the U.S. from it as soon as a year after it takes effect by abandoning a 1992 treaty — without any need for lawmaker approval.

A second option, which would be slower but somewhat less confrontational, could see Trump wait until the end of his first term before taking advantage of a provision in the agreement that would let him yank America from the pact.

The third option may be the easiest of all. Even without withdrawing formally, a Trump administration could undermine the agreement by abandoning rules, incentives and programs designed to reduce pollution, preventing the U.S. from living up to its new commitments to the climate. Trump has said he would eliminate the EPA, which oversees many of those rules and programs.

While the Paris pact fails to require the types of aggressive actions needed to safely slow global warming, it is nonetheless considered a landmark political achievement.
If the “U.S. or any large country walks away from the agreement,” said Harjeet Singh, an ActionAid official based in India, where he works on international climate issues, it would represent an “epic failure” to not build on what had been a “huge political feat.”"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #785 on: September 21, 2016, 07:51:45 PM »
Thorough rundown of everything the Obama administration has done on climate change the past 8 years:  https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/page/files/20160921_record_climate_energy_cea.pdf
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 242
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #786 on: September 23, 2016, 03:23:03 AM »
The linked article is entitled: "Experts see few paths to planet-saving climate goal"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/experts-see-few-paths-planet-saving-climate-goal-004414242.html


Extract: "For many scientists, 1.5 C seems virtually impossible -- at least not without "over-shooting" the target.

"We may see the first year of 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels within a decade," cautioned Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the Met Office Hadley Centre in England."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

timallard

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 136
  • designer
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #787 on: September 24, 2016, 03:14:18 PM »

Our global problem is like this, a glacial cycle takes about 100,000-years and CO2 varies from 180-280-ppm, 100-ppm.

So during all those ice-ages the maximum highest ever CO2 was 305±5-ppm, ok, we passed that about 1916 and since then added a full 100-ppm.

The full variation of a glacial cycle in only 100-years and it's all above the highest value ever reached in a million years.

This was humanity's Pandora's Box, there is no "carbon budget" left, what a vile joke to think we can add more.
-tom

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #788 on: September 24, 2016, 08:33:17 PM »
The Paris Climate Agreement Is Now One Step Closer to Reality
Quote
The pledges mean that a total of 60 countries, representing 47.7 percent of global emissions, have now formally joined the Paris agreement. ... A total of 55 nations representing at least 55 percent of global emissions need to sign up for the deal to come into force.

"Climate campaigners have said that the speed of the Paris deal ratification raises hopes that the world is finally swinging behind efforts to reduce emissions and prevent the worst ravages of a warming planet."

Quote
“The global community is rallying behind swift and ambitious action to combat climate change,” said Paula Caballero, global director of the World Resources Institute’s climate program.

“The fact that the Paris agreement will likely enter into force this year took everyone by surprise. This rapid pace reflects a spirit of cooperation rarely seen on a global scale.
https://www.wired.com/2016/09/paris-climate-agreement-one-step-closer-reality/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #789 on: September 24, 2016, 09:46:55 PM »
Bill McKibben:   Recalculating the Climate Math

Quote
The future of humanity depends on math. And the numbers in a new study released Thursday are the most ominous yet.

Those numbers spell out, in simple arithmetic, how much of the fossil fuel in the world’s existing coal mines and oil wells we can burn if we want to prevent global warming from cooking the planet. In other words, if our goal is to keep the Earth’s temperature from rising more than two degrees Celsius—the upper limit identified by the nations of the world—how much more new digging and drilling can we do?

Here’s the answer: zero.


That’s right: If we’re serious about preventing catastrophic warming, the new study shows, we can’t dig any new coal mines, drill any new fields, build any more pipelines. Not a single one. We’re done expanding the fossil fuel frontier. Our only hope is a swift, managed decline in the production of all carbon-based energy from the fields we’ve already put in production.
...

“Absent some incredible breakthrough in mythical carbon-sucking unicorns, the numbers say we’re done with the expansion of the fossil fuel industry,” says Kretzmann. “Living up to the Paris Agreement means we must start a managed decline in the fossil fuel industry immediately—and manage that decline as quickly as possible.”

“Managed decline” means we don’t have to grind everything to a halt tomorrow; we can keep extracting fuel from existing oil wells and gas fields and coal mines. But we can’t go explore for new ones. We can’t even develop the ones we already know about, the ones right next to our current projects.
...
“Keeping it in the ground” does not mean stopping all production of fossil fuels instantly. “If you let current fields begin their natural decline,” says Kretzmann, “you’ll be using 50 percent less oil by 2033.” That gives us 17 years, as the wells we’ve already drilled slowly run dry, to replace all that oil with renewable energy. That’s enough time—maybe—to replace gas guzzlers with electric cars. To retrain pipeline workers and coal miners to build solar panels and wind turbines. To follow the lead of cities like Portland that have barred any new fossil fuel infrastructure, and countries like China that have banned new coal mines. Those are small steps, but they’re important ones.
https://newrepublic.com/article/136987/recalculating-climate-math
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 242
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #790 on: September 24, 2016, 11:34:10 PM »
It is notable that the linked White House white paper on climate changes indicates that during the next 20 years sea level rises will become a disruption to our systemic ways of life:


https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/documents/nic-white-paper-climate-change.pdf

Extract: "We assess that during the next 20 years—in addition to increasingly disruptive extreme weather events—climate change effects will play out in broader, systemic ways, such as more acidic oceans, degraded soil and air-quality, and rising sea levels, resulting in sustained direct and indirect effects on US national security. Weather events of modest severity will be disruptive when their impacts are compounded as part of a rapid sequence or in clusters."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

timallard

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 136
  • designer
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #791 on: September 25, 2016, 01:19:12 AM »

Our global problem is like this, a glacial cycle takes about 100,000-years and CO2 varies from 180-280-ppm, 100-ppm.

So during all those ice-ages the maximum highest ever CO2 was 305±5-ppm, ok, we passed that about 1916 and since then added a full 100-ppm.

The full variation of a glacial cycle in only 100-years and it's all above the highest value ever reached in a million years.

This was humanity's Pandora's Box, fossil fuels.


My solution for the short-term is to dam Bering Straits to create a sea-ice refuge while it's still cold enough: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1545.0.html
-tom

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 242
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #792 on: September 25, 2016, 07:44:13 PM »
If one optimistically assumes that ECS is around 3.2C, and one assumes the best implementation of the Paris Pact then we are on track for at least a 2.7C temperature increase (I note that DeConto 2016 calculate that the WAIS will start an irreversible collapse process long before the GMST Anom reaches 2.7C, see the linked article below).  However, when one assumes, one makes an ass out of u and me.  We have no contingency plans in case ECS is closer to 4.6C; and if power-guided world leaders do not follow the best course for implementing the Paris Pact:


https://cleantechnica.com/2016/09/25/1-decade-left-keep-global-warming-1-5c/

Abstract: "Recently, many experts have concluded that even with most nationally determined contributions to carbon reduction counted, Earth is currently on a path toward at least 2.7 degrees of warming despite the 2 degree pledge."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 242
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #793 on: September 25, 2016, 07:56:23 PM »
Following Libertarian thinking our contingency plan (allowing us to trash the world) is to inhabit other planets.  I wish you all good luck with thinking such as this:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/25/politics/gary-johnson-climate-change/

Extract: "Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson offered an outta this world solution on Sunday to the planet's environmental crises.

"We do have to inhabit other planets. The future of the human race is space exploration," Johnson said on ABC's "This Week.""
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15891
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #794 on: September 25, 2016, 08:54:28 PM »
Following Libertarian thinking our contingency plan (allowing us to trash the world) is to inhabit other planets.  I wish you all good luck with thinking such as this:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/25/politics/gary-johnson-climate-change/

Extract: "Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson offered an outta this world solution on Sunday to the planet's environmental crises.

"We do have to inhabit other planets. The future of the human race is space exploration," Johnson said on ABC's "This Week.""

Well, in a way he's right, because the future for some people will be in space.  ;)

But with comments like, "And I am talking now about the Earth and the fact that we have existed for billions of years," he's definitely not helping us get there! 
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #795 on: September 26, 2016, 05:42:50 AM »
the future for some people will be in space.  ;)
Why wait, Nasa's new SLS will launch payloads of upto 130 tonnes into orbit, that's at least 1300 Trump-sized people you could send right away.  ;)

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 242
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #796 on: September 26, 2016, 04:53:10 PM »
It looks like the USA's compliance with the Paris Pact is under threat by a court case that could hinge on the conservative US Supreme Court's ruling on a 26-year old clerical error in the Clean Air Act:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/26/us/politics/obama-court-clean-power-plan.html?_r=0

Extract: "The pitched battle over President Obama’s signature climate change policy, which is moving to the courts this week, carries considerable political, economic and historical stakes. Yet its legal fate, widely expected to be ultimately decided by the Supreme Court, could rest on a clerical error in an obscure provision of a 26-year-old law."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 242
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #797 on: September 26, 2016, 05:03:40 PM »
Emission limits on aviation is not specifically addressed in the Paris Pact, therefore, per the linked article instead of achieving neutral carbon emissions the aviation industry will use either offsetting or cap-and-trade schemes to compensate for their emissions (good luck to future generations, as cap-and-trade schemes have a horrible track record):

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-aviation-finally-agree-climate-deal

Extract: "However, it is acknowledged in the industry and by scientists that tinkering with aircraft efficiency will not deliver the types of reductions required to allow the industry to grow without adding to emissions. Therefore, ICAO is expected to agree some kind of market-based mechanism that would see it buying savings elsewhere to cover its emissions.

The exact nature of this mechanism has been under discussion since the last ICAO assembly in 2013; offsetting and cap-and-trade schemes were both being considered."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 242
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #798 on: September 26, 2016, 05:20:01 PM »
Will world leader actually get a handle on the global surge for air conditioning and refrigeration?

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/100-countries-phase-out-hfcs-20725

Extract: "CFCs have been routinely replaced by HFCs, which trap thousands of times more heat in the Earth’s atmosphere than carbon dioxide.

Their growing use in developing countries could mean they account for nearly 20 percent of all emissions by 2050. The replacement of HFCs could prove crucial if the world is to avoid dangerous runaway climate change, driven by a temperature rise of 2°C or more.

The new coalition of nations, which will push for an early phase-out of HFCs at a gathering in Rwanda next month, includes the U.S., all 28 European Union nations, all 54 countries in Africa and South American nations including Argentina and Colombia.

The U.S. is proposing that growth in HFC use be “frozen” at 2021 levels and then scaled down so that it is largely eliminated by 2050. China wants a later peaking date, at 2025, but is still considered part of an early drawdown group when compared to other Asian nations. India is the most reluctant, having pushed for a 2031 date.


Worldwide power consumption for air conditioning alone is forecast to surge 33-fold by 2100 as developing world incomes rise and urbanization advances. By mid-century people will use more energy for cooling than heating.

“Most people tend to think of energy in terms of heat and light and transport,” said Toby Peters, visiting professor of power and the cold economy at the University of Birmingham, last October.
“But more and more, it’s going to be about cold. Demand for cold is already huge, it’s growing fast, and we’re meeting it in basically the same way we’ve been doing for a century."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

timallard

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 136
  • designer
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #799 on: September 26, 2016, 06:03:21 PM »
Will world leader actually get a handle on the global surge for air conditioning and refrigeration?

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/100-countries-phase-out-hfcs-20725

Extract: "CFCs have been routinely replaced by HFCs, which trap thousands of times more heat in the Earth’s atmosphere than carbon dioxide.
Their growing use in developing countries could mean they account for nearly 20 percent of all emissions by 2050. The replacement of HFCs could prove crucial if the world is to avoid dangerous runaway climate change, driven by a temperature rise of 2°C or more.
>>snip
Consider architecture is relatively easy to add-on a thermal-mass storage to existing buildings to store HVAC needs from concentrating-collectors, or, as now seen in some panels a thermal built-in.

Doing this removes about 80% of grid demand on hot or freezing days if universal ... my first passive-solar home I helped build 1980 still has zero need for heat-cold externally supplied.

Stupid of AIA to drop that ball when at that time a big move was on to convert to clean energy and thermal systems, millions of homes would be off-grid, the energy companies colluded, connived and bribed their way to stop that they are vile people.

The other little known radical change easy to do is insulate from the outside of walls, it reduces conduction, this is a heat-transfer model run of 6.7-hrs 20C delta-T standard wall shows a ton of heat loss.

With 1-1/2" of insulation board added onto the sheathing with 1/2" ripped plywood furring strips to keep condensation from soaking the siding loses only 1/4-1/3 the heat. Doing this costs about what a mid-range siding job costs for 1-1/2" board.

The time needed to move substations to wind-solar-storage and go off-grid without changing architecture will take less than 5-years it's only batteries, inverters, panels & small Dabiri array windmills, 2-months if a war, ymmv.

"John Dabiri: Opportunities and Challenges for Next-Generation Wind Energy"; 25:13;

-tom