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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #350 on: August 16, 2018, 10:35:22 PM »
bbr2314,
You actually wrote "Re-glaciation!" and ended "It's happening (?)"
(To the question, I'll sadly reply: I doubt it.)

I am curious whether Climate Reanalyzer's "Global Δ=-1ºC" is in relation to today or to 1850 (or 1700), given that we are currently at +1ºC over pre-industrial.  Do you have a link that says?
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

magnamentis

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #351 on: August 16, 2018, 11:19:10 PM »
after two years of one extreme theories following the other and that not in one field of expertise but basically across the board of topics, i clearly see this as trolling and only recommend to stop replying, it's the only means beside a ban that can stop a troll with a healthy mind and
then there are others who pretend not to care. reminds me of POTUS behaviour, uttering
one utter BS after another, not fearing the consequences and not one single time admitting
an error or that it might perhaps be a bit far fetched, instead insisting to the bitter end and once the topic is worn out find another one.

if i only had time i'd start making a list from split CAB to swiss-cheese like greenland to .......

even though i found a way that most of it goes past me i stlll can read the replies and the quotes which at times renders the purpose of some features obsolete.

doubts are a very nice term to express that we know that the opposite is happening and increasingly though. it's best denier's practice to find one or two spots on the globe that behave differently and then claim that everything is the other way around.

last but no least before i wrote this i can claim that i tried with dozens of friendly hints to stop the
nerve-killing provoking posts without any benefit but to stand out from to mass like if opposition would be a virtue that's disconnected from the cause.



oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #352 on: August 16, 2018, 11:33:06 PM »
Well said Magna. I'm trying to restrain myself and ignore but the speculative fiction is hard on the nerves.

Alexander555

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #353 on: August 17, 2018, 12:10:47 AM »
Maybe he really beliefs it. And if you don't belief him, is there no way to tell he's wrong. Like the places where it was colder this year. Maybe it's just about the condition of the polar vortex. Like we had cameleons falling from trees in Florida. That probably don't happens much, but it did this year. Or like in 2012 when the Bering Sea was much more frozen than normal.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #354 on: August 17, 2018, 12:17:08 AM »
Maybe he really beliefs it. And if you don't belief him, is there no way to tell he's wrong. Like the places where it was colder this year. Maybe it's just about the condition of the polar vortex. Like we had cameleons falling from trees in Florida. That probably don't happens much, but it did this year. Or like in 2012 when the Bering Sea was much more frozen than normal.
I do believe it. There are maps etc verifying these claims. However, ignorance is bliss, so I do not fault others who think I am "trolling" or whatever.

These are usually the same posters who express faith in humanity's ability to resolve AGW / catastrophic climate change as if their own behavior isn't part of the problem (and this is amongst posters at a site where scientific literacy is FAR higher than amongst the general public). I don't know how people think there will be any improvements when the impending changes due to agricultural shortages etc will overwhelm any efforts towards "greening" consumption. And even then, "greening" consumption in and of itself is sufficient to push planetary averages to +2-+2.5C vs. 1900 baseline due to dropping aerosols.

To the posters ranting about myself in the above comments: why has Quebec been colder than ANY OTHER SUMMER in recent times this year? Why did parts of the Midwest experience their coldest April on record, going back to 1895, and under GHGs that are +50% vs 1895? There is a simple explanation (+++precip = +++snow = +++albedo, combined with +++oceanic heat = Gulf Stream shutdown). But if you don't like the explanation we already have historical evidence of in the Younger Dryas, please make up your own theories (and of course the criticism will start with ....BUT LAKE AGASSIZ...!!! when GREENLAND has way more volume).

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #355 on: August 17, 2018, 12:23:31 AM »
bbr2314,
You actually wrote "Re-glaciation!" and ended "It's happening (?)"
(To the question, I'll sadly reply: I doubt it.)

I am curious whether Climate Reanalyzer's "Global Δ=-1ºC" is in relation to today or to 1850 (or 1700), given that we are currently at +1ºC over pre-industrial.  Do you have a link that says?
I believe it is vs. 1979-2000 avgs.



I would also like to note the posters ranting and raving ^^^ were the ones saying I was insane back in the spring. Now, months later and with extant snowcover remaining over Quebec, I have apparently "lost my mind" and am "trolling" when satellites confirm snow has remained extant over the summer.  :o

Alexander555

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #356 on: August 17, 2018, 12:54:05 AM »
To be honestly , i'm not convinced. Why was it the coldest April in the Midwest ? Maybe it was because there was very little ice in the Bering Sea. So the cold was not there, that's for sure. Otherwise it would have been frozen much further. And there was not that much ice near Svalbard. So both on the Pacific and the Atlantic side there was not that much ice . There was some tick ice on the siberian  side and on the side of Canada. But is that not more related to that polar vortex ?

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #357 on: August 17, 2018, 01:13:30 AM »
To be honestly , i'm not convinced. Why was it the coldest April in the Midwest ? Maybe it was because there was very little ice in the Bering Sea. So the cold was not there, that's for sure. Otherwise it would have been frozen much further. And there was not that much ice near Svalbard. So both on the Pacific and the Atlantic side there was not that much ice . There was some tick ice on the siberian  side and on the side of Canada. But is that not more related to that polar vortex ?
I think you are correct re: it also being related to ^^^. But the retreat of the ice in both the far NATL and Bering is also due to the shifting ocean currents / increase in oceanic heat content.

The question is whether we see a repeat this year. With all the insolation sopped up since 2017, I see no reason why we wouldn't, especially as we are likely to see a lower minimum than 2017 (and much less ice in both respective areas at minimum, as well as more accumulated heat).

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #358 on: August 17, 2018, 04:22:43 AM »
...
I am curious whether Climate Reanalyzer's "Global Δ=-1ºC" is in relation to today or to 1850 (or 1700), given that we are currently at +1ºC over pre-industrial.  Do you have a link that says?
I believe it is vs. 1979-2000 avgs.

[image showing Δ=0ºC for 1979-2000]
...
Thanks, bbr.  Were snowfields (or glaciers) growing in northern Quebec in 1700 the last time we were at Global Δ=-1ºC (compared with 'now').  Of course, other things were different then, like CO2 levels were lower.

Another question would be:  how in the world could we get to Global Δ=-1ºC (compared with 'now'), given ACC?  A couple regions in the world, sure, due to seriously changed winds or currents, while every place else broils or bakes, but global average temperature is basically going up.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #359 on: August 17, 2018, 05:02:22 AM »
...
I am curious whether Climate Reanalyzer's "Global Δ=-1ºC" is in relation to today or to 1850 (or 1700), given that we are currently at +1ºC over pre-industrial.  Do you have a link that says?
I believe it is vs. 1979-2000 avgs.

[image showing Δ=0ºC for 1979-2000]
...
Thanks, bbr.  Were snowfields (or glaciers) growing in northern Quebec in 1700 the last time we were at Global Δ=-1ºC (compared with 'now').  Of course, other things were different then, like CO2 levels were lower.

Another question would be:  how in the world could we get to Global Δ=-1ºC (compared with 'now'), given ACC?  A couple regions in the world, sure, due to seriously changed winds or currents, while every place else broils or bakes, but global average temperature is basically going up.
There is no data I have been able to find re: 1700-1800 far northern glaciation / etc. I think there were basically only fur trappers in the area at the time and they probably didn't even get that far north (outside of Native Americans / Inuits).

And re: point #2 -- we definitely *will not* get to global -1C without major and catastrophic hosing. But I am not talking about global -1C, I am talking regionally in a specific area (NRN Canada). However, this could result in an albedo spiral that DOES result in a major drop in global temps, it will just take several decades for regional impacts to cascade elsewhere.

Alexander555

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #360 on: August 17, 2018, 09:31:49 AM »
If we would go to a global -1 , your theory well have a problem. Because than there will be less evaporation from the oceans. So where will that extra snow come from ?  We have been cutting down as much vegatation as we could. We build the cities as big as we could. It's going to be a cold desert i think , but no glaciers.

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #361 on: August 17, 2018, 12:03:36 PM »
Be afraid, be very afraid!

No matter that ENSO  neutral is due to become El Nino over the next few months,
No matter that it is suggested that natural temperature variation may well pump up AGW in the next few years,

Snow has persisted in some hilly bits of Quebec!!!!!

Glaciation is upon us !!!!!!! (Also imagine a Buddy on font size)

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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #362 on: August 17, 2018, 06:44:17 PM »
Be afraid, be very afraid!

No matter that ENSO  neutral is due to become El Nino over the next few months,
No matter that it is suggested that natural temperature variation may well pump up AGW in the next few years,

Snow has persisted in some hilly bits of Quebec!!!!!

Glaciation is upon us !!!!!!! (Also imagine a Buddy on font size)
You are being petulant and nasty for no reason. Both of those factors are likely to aggravate what is happening in Quebec due to +precip and +melt into the NE NATL. Your cold frozen corpse won't remember how rude you were on weather forums so why don't you try to add something of value instead of responding with attacks laced in bare-bones facts?

14-15 was a weak ENSO and led to the worst conditions we've seen in Eastern North America since the Little Ice Age (until this year, at least from April through summer, when 2018 was far colder across the NRN tier). I suspect +++ENSO actually has something to do with late extant snowcover across Eastern North America, I am not sure what yet, but the major event in 2015 followed the happenings of the previous winter, and I believe 1972 was also a very bad / cold snow year for Quebec (as in, there was a lot).

In any case, the models are now spreading snowfalls farther and farther across the Canadian shield by D10. Another notable development is being discussed in the melting thread, where ATeam seems to have ascertained that there has been a severe shift in the Beaufort Gyre, which could have released 20-30,000KM^3+ of freshwater toward the CAA and NE NATL (it will take months to get there). That amount of freshwater in such a short timeframe could cripple the NATL worse than what happened this year, especially if spring 2019 yields even more accumulated SWE than 2018.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #363 on: August 17, 2018, 08:53:47 PM »
The latest EURO ups the ante once more. Wow. Deep, and increasingly widespread snows now being forecast over the NRN tier of Quebec. It should only be another week or two until we see falls across the lower altitudes + latitudes as well. For August, this is quite remarkable IMO.


Brigantine

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #364 on: August 17, 2018, 09:20:49 PM »
How does the snow on the Barnes Ice Cap compare with the mountain snow patches on the Uganva Peninsula?

Over in Scotland they're doing a survey of mountain snow patches over the next few days. It's relatively touch and go whether any will survive the summer this year.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #365 on: August 17, 2018, 09:44:37 PM »
How does the snow on the Barnes Ice Cap compare with the mountain snow patches on the Uganva Peninsula?

Over in Scotland they're doing a survey of mountain snow patches over the next few days. It's relatively touch and go whether any will survive the summer this year.
Checking EOSDIS, 2018 has a higher albedo than any other recent year. It looks like it is actually growing in elevation in the middle, but overall expansion is not yet occurring. The mountains of Baffin Island are also noticeably whiter / more snow-covered this year vs. any other.

Alexander555

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #366 on: August 17, 2018, 10:34:52 PM »
He Gerontocrat, i know it's a little off topic. But when that El Niño kicks in. Does it also has an impact on that piece of sea between West-Africa and the north of South-America. Because the water there is already colder than normal for the entire year. And that area is a little bit the origine for the rain in Europe. And colder water is less evaporation. And so far we had a pretty dry summer. Or is the impact from El Niño only situated between Asia and South- America ? I think that some kind of US wheater service predicts a less than normal US hurricane season for this year, because that seawater below the equator between West-Africa and South-America is colder than normal.

wdmn

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #367 on: December 27, 2018, 07:27:03 AM »
Snowpack Change From 1982 to 2016 Over Conterminous United States

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL079621

Quote
Abstract
Snow water equivalent (SWE) variability and its drivers over different regions remain uncertain due to lack of representativeness of point measurements and deficiencies of existing coarse‐resolution SWE products. Here, for the first time, we quantify and understand the snowpack change from 1982 to 2016 over conterminous United States at 4‐km pixels. Annual maximum SWE decreased significantly (p < 0.05) by 41% on average for 13% of snowy pixels over western United States. Snow season was shortened significantly by 34 days on average for 9% of snowy pixels over the United States, primarily caused by earlier ending and later arrival of the season over western and eastern United States, respectively. October–March mean temperature and accumulated precipitation largely explain the temporal variability of 1 April SWE over western United States, and considering temperature alone would exaggerate the warming effect on SWE decrease. In contrast, temperature plays the primary role in the 1 April SWE variability over eastern United States.

Plain Language Summary
Snow is one of the most important wintertime land surface characteristics and is crucial for water resources over western United States. However, regional snow mass variability and its drivers remain uncertain. Based on our recently developed high‐quality gridded snow mass product, here, for the first time, we quantify and understand the snowpack change from 1982 to 2016 over conterminous United States (ConUS) at 4‐km pixels. Annual maximum snow mass decreases significantly by 41% on average for 13% of snowy pixels over the western United States (or the size of South Carolina). Over ConUS, snow season was shortened significantly by 34 days on average for 9% of the snowy pixels (or the size of Virginia). October–March mean temperature and accumulated precipitation largely explain the temporal variability of 1 April snow mass over western United States, and considering temperature alone would exaggerate the warming effect on the snow decrease. For the snowpack projection in the next few decades over United States to be reliable, Earth system models need to demonstrate their capability in reproducing historical snowpack variabilities and trends and their different relations with temperature and precipitation over western versus eastern ConUS, as reported here.

Image caption:
The pink-to-red areas on this map of the Four Corners region shows statistically significant decreases in annual snow mass since 1982. Those areas correspond to many of the region’s highest mountain ranges. Darker colors represent larger trends.
(Image: Patrick Broxton, ©2018)

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #368 on: January 06, 2019, 11:31:00 AM »
Snow in the northern hemisphere as at 5th January 2019 from Environment Canada https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

In both North America and Eurasia the story looks about the same:-
- Snow Cover Extent (SCE) about average,
- Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) just over 1 standard deviation above average.

But last year it was Feb / March / April that brought the snow to North America and there is lots of chatter about a sudden stratospheric warming  and polar vortex split happening now and lter this month. We will see (or not see).


________________________________________________________________________
Studies seem to suggest AGW causing a trend to less snow at lower latitudes affecting SCE) and greater snowfall at higher latitudes (wetter air and effecting SWE).
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #369 on: January 10, 2019, 11:49:31 AM »
Snow in the northern hemisphere as at 9th January 2019 from Environment Canada https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

In both North America and Eurasia the story looks about the same but with the difference between SCE and SWE increasing:-
- Snow Cover Extent (SCE) about average,
- Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) over 1 standard deviation above average.

Last year it was Feb / March / April that brought the really heavy snow to North America and there is lots of chatter about a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)  and polar vortex split (PVS) happening now and later this month that could set it up again this year (and in parts of Eurasia). We will see (or not see) . Heavy snow in Europe / Turkey one of the first results ?
________________________________________________________________________
Studies seem to suggest AGW causing a trend to less snow at lower latitudes affecting SCE) and greater snowfall at higher latitudes (wetter air and effecting SWE).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #370 on: January 10, 2019, 07:48:43 PM »
I suspect that we will go AWOL come February 2018, as well (worsening in March -> April). The SSTs in the NATL are a bit colder close to the coast this year, and warmer from Gulf Stream on out, which IMO portends plentiful moisture for large snowfall events into meteorological summer in some spots of Quebec -- past solstice, possibly.

Of course I could be wrong. But it is interesting to note how off the scale 2018 was compared to all other years this October. That kind of deviation re: sea ice would most definitely have been a major feature and topic for discussion (and IMO it is exactly that when happening re: snowcover OR sea ice).

The question is, how quickly does this accelerate? If 2018 is a guide, the transition to "snowy" Quebec is now happening exceedingly rapidly after the snow/loss balance turned around ~2005. After about a decade of slow ramp-umps since then, this year has blown away most others.

I suspect something similar to the period of the mid-1970s is now happening, but with a 2010s background state providing much different impacts depending on region. This was the snowiest year in Greenland since 1972. The ensuing years were marked by increasingly widespread summer Canadian snowcover until 1979.

I wonder if we see something like ^ occur again, except this time the focus will be on Quebec, where snow can accumulate much deeper than the Yukon / Nunavut (where the 70s summertime anomalies were focused).

TerryM

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #371 on: January 11, 2019, 08:08:57 PM »
From a very localized perspective in SW Ontario.


The grass has an unhealthy greenish hue.
The river flows on, not constrained by ice along the banks
No enduring snowdrifts, even where snowplows will soon build deep banks.


All in all it's a chilly fall day - but this is the second week of January!


A Chinese friend noted last night that she's only experienced 2 "white" Xmas's since landing on our shores 5 years ago. She treats our tales of trudging through snowdrifts on Halloween much as we respond to her tales of 800 mile train trips costing <$50, taking <5 hours and available every 5 minutes. ie we understand that it's truthful, but it's so different from our own experiences that it's difficult to grasp.


If we're truly heading into another ice age, it's not likely to begin near here.
Terry

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #372 on: January 11, 2019, 08:23:21 PM »
Snow brings parts of Europe to standstill
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46835677

Quote
Heavy snowfalls brought chaos to parts of Germany and Sweden on Friday, leaving roads blocked, trains halted and schools shut.

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #373 on: August 30, 2019, 03:40:25 PM »
Deep Snow Cover In the Arctic Region Intensifies Heat Waves In Eurasia
https://m.phys.org/news/2019-08-deep-arctic-region-eurasia.html



Variations in the depth of snow cover in the Arctic region from late winter to spring determines the summer temperature pattern in Eurasia, according to Hokkaido University researchers. In particular, deeper-than-usual snow cover in Western Russia enhanced the likelihood of summer heat waves in Europe and Northeast Asia in recent years.

The researchers analyzed 6,000 patterns in the spatial distribution of summer temperatures in Eurasia, and succeeded in dividing past summer temperature variations into two groups—one attributable to global warming and the other attributable to natural changes. The former exhibited the rising temperatures in Eurasia since around 1990, while the latter showed the spatial distribution of low and high temperatures that correspond to the meandering of the westerlies. The distribution shows a wave train-like structure—which demonstrates that when some regions experienced abnormally high temperatures, the surrounding areas were hit by abnormally low temperatures.

The researchers then discovered that when Western Russia had a deeper-than-usual snow cover in late winter and spring, the wave train-like distribution of temperatures appeared. When deeper snow accumulation occurs, more moisture retains in the soil after snowmelt. The soil moisture then prevents the summer temperature from rising, which is a likely cause for making the westerlies meander, thus causing the surrounding regions to experience high temperatures.

Open Access: Tomonori Sato et al. Intensification of hot Eurasian summers by climate change and land–atmosphere interactions, Scientific Reports (2019)
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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #374 on: September 03, 2019, 07:36:33 PM »
Interesting chart on NH snow cover. Haven't evaluated it closely but thought I would put it here.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #375 on: September 04, 2019, 08:39:27 AM »
00z EURO shows 6-12" in parts of New Brunswick. That would be pretty crazy, and the trend colder was strong this past run. There could be a solution in the works that is substantially more significant re: totals (or not).

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #376 on: September 04, 2019, 09:08:06 AM »
It looks like winter may set in very early across parts of Canada, particularly good old Quebec.

By 48 hours 850s are below 0 across most of Quebec.



They stay that way through 240 hours with reinforcing cold arriving 216ish.



Forecasts have trended colder continuously. The EURO shows 12"+ falling across most elevated spots of Quebec by the end of the period, with a dollop of 24" totals in the southernmost elevated part of Quebec adjacent to New Brunswick, btw.

Ensembles for GFS and CMC show warmer temps setting in after the 15th so will be interesting to see if forecasts hold or change for colder as we approach 00z hr (as has seemingly been the case as of recent).

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #377 on: September 04, 2019, 03:32:34 PM »
Shouldn’t these comments be on 2019/2020 thread? Seems this thread should be general info on snow cover.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #378 on: September 04, 2019, 08:03:32 PM »
Shouldn’t these comments be on 2019/2020 thread? Seems this thread should be general info on snow cover.
I thought it was, my mistake!

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #379 on: November 12, 2019, 04:30:57 PM »
Satellite Data Shows Loss of Snow Cover, Not Soot to Blame for Rapid Temperature Rise in Arctic
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-satellite-loss-soot-blame-rapid.html

A team of researchers from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, the University of Washington and the University of Wisconsin-Madison has found evidence that shows the rapid rise of temperatures in the Arctic is caused by the loss of snow and ice cover, and not soot. In their paper published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the group describes studying satellite data for the region over a 32-year period, and what it showed them about surface temperatures

The researchers report that they found a 1.25-to-1.51 percent per decade absolute reduction in mean surface albedo for the Arctic during the spring and summer seasons. They also found that the reduction in snow and ice cover for sea ice, snow cover over the sea and snow covering the ground contributed equally to the reductions in albedo. They conclude by suggesting that surface temperature warming combined with a reduction in snowfall have been the primary reasons for the rapid increase in temperatures in the Arctic.

This finding is in direct contrast to prior studies blaming soot for the decrease in albedo. To back up their claim, the researchers note that soot covering snow in the Arctic has been declining over the past three decades, yet the rise in surface temperatures has continued unabated.


Albedo trend. Area- and energy-weighted average of multimonth (March to September of each year) mean (A) surface albedo over the entire Arctic and (B) planetary albedo over the Arctic oceanic area (north of 60°N).

Rudong Zhang et al. Unraveling driving forces explaining significant reduction in satellite-inferred Arctic surface albedo since the 1980s, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2019).
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #380 on: November 13, 2019, 05:35:08 AM »
LOL

New record-low-maximum of 17F, SMASHING the old record of 28F!


000
SXUS73 KLOT 122302
RERORD

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
502 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2019

...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT CHICAGO-OHARE IL...
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT CHICAGO-OHARE IL...

A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES WAS SET AT CHICAGO-
OHARE IL TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 28 DEGREES SET IN
1995.

IN ADDITION...A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 7 DEGREES (AS OF 4 PM) WAS
SET AT CHICAGO-OHARE IL TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 8 SET
IN 1986.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #381 on: November 14, 2019, 04:02:02 AM »
Live in Chicago...it was damn cold Tuesday morning. Broke out my winter down parka earlier than any recent year.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #382 on: November 14, 2019, 04:16:46 AM »
Live in Chicago...it was damn cold Tuesday morning. Broke out my winter down parka earlier than any recent year.
I'm visiting currently and it is frigid omg

johnm33

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #383 on: November 14, 2019, 09:27:22 AM »
maybe switch to brr?

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #384 on: December 26, 2019, 05:13:55 PM »
I registered with skepticalscience.com and every week they send an email with loads of links to new research.

This week I picked up https://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2019-300/tc-2019-300.pdf which has just been opened for discussion.
Spatiotemporal variation of snow depth in the Northern Hemisphere from 1992 to 2016

It looks at changes in snow depth and concludes
Quote
Although spatial variation pattern of snow depth and snow cover days exhibited slight regional differences, they generally reveal the decreasing trend over the most area of the Northern Hemisphere. Our work provides evidence that rapid changes in snow depth and snow mass are occurring since the beginning of the 21st century, accompanied by dramatic climate warming.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #385 on: May 01, 2020, 06:50:31 PM »
Europe made it from the lower to the upper band by refusing to melt.

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #386 on: May 02, 2020, 02:13:48 PM »
This week I picked up https://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2019-300/tc-2019-300.pdf which has just been opened for discussion.
Spatiotemporal variation of snow depth in the Northern Hemisphere from 1992 to 2016

It looks at changes in snow depth and concludes
Quote
Although spatial variation pattern of snow depth and snow cover days exhibited slight regional differences, they generally reveal the decreasing trend over the most area of the Northern Hemisphere. Our work provides evidence that rapid changes in snow depth and snow mass are occurring since the beginning of the 21st century, accompanied by dramatic climate warming.
So I had a look at the Spring map from their paper & the snow map as at the 1st May.

- There is a lot of missing snow in Central Siberia that corresponds well with the model output,
- There is excess snow in NE Canada, Alaska, Eastern Siberia & Norway that corresponds to model output.

But for 2-3 years there has been a helluva lot of snow on the Tibetan Plateau & the Himalayas.
The model output does not show this - it shows more like the opposite.


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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #387 on: May 02, 2020, 04:19:50 PM »
^^
Reading your analyses (also other threads) gives me a good idea of what's going on. My memory is not that good apart from where I concentrate on. Much appreciated gerontocrat.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #388 on: April 14, 2021, 12:01:15 AM »
Snow Chaos In Europe Caused By Melting Sea-Ice In Arctic
https://phys.org/news/2021-04-chaos-europe-sea-ice-arctic.html



... It is the loss of the Arctic sea-ice due to climate warming that has, somewhat paradoxically, been implicated with severe cold and snowy mid-latitude winters.

Alun Hubbard, from CAGE Center for Arctic Gas Hydrate, Environment and Climate at UiT The Arctic University of Norway, is the co-author of a study in Nature Geoscience examining this counter-intuitive climatic paradox: A 50% reduction in Arctic sea-ice cover has increased open-water and winter evaporation to fuel more extreme snowfall further south across Europe.

The study, led by Dr. Hanna Bailey at the University of Oulu, Finland, has more specifically found that the long-term decline of Arctic sea-ice since the late 1970s had a direct connection to one specific weather event: "Beast from the East"—the February snowfall that brought large parts of the European continent to a halt in 2018, causing £1bn a day in losses.

The study, led by Dr. Hanna Bailey at the University of Oulu, Finland, has more specifically found that the long-term decline of Arctic sea-ice since the late 1970s had a direct connection to one specific weather event: "Beast from the East"—the February snowfall that brought large parts of the European continent to a halt in 2018, causing £1bn a day in losses.

Researchers discovered that atmospheric vapor traveling south from the Arctic carried a unique geochemical fingerprint, revealing that its source was the warm, open-water surface of the Barents Sea, part of the Arctic Ocean between Norway, Russia, and Svalbard. They found that during the "Beast from the East," open-water conditions in the Barents Sea supplied up to 88% of the corresponding fresh snow that fell over Europe.

"What we're finding is that sea-ice is effectively a lid on the ocean. And with its long-term reduction across the Arctic, we're seeing increasing amounts of moisture enter the atmosphere during winter, which directly impacts our weather further south, causing extreme heavy snowfalls. It might seem counter-intuitive, but nature is complex and what happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic." says Bailey.

When analyzing the long-term trends from 1979 onwards, researchers found that for every square meter of winter sea-ice lost from the Barents Sea, there was a corresponding 70 kg increase in the evaporation, moisture, and snow falling over Europe.

Their findings indicate that within the next 60 years, a predicted ice-free Barents Sea will likely become a significant source of increased winter precipitation—be it rain or snow—for Europe.

"This study illustrates that the abrupt changes being witnessed across the Arctic now, really are affecting the entire planet," says professor Hubbard.



Hannah Bailey et al, Arctic sea-ice loss fuels extreme European snowfall, Nature Geoscience (2021).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00719-y
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/350568647_Arctic_sea-ice_loss_fuels_extreme_European_snowfall
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #389 on: April 14, 2021, 08:17:49 PM »


Alun Hubbard, from CAGE Center for Arctic Gas Hydrate, Environment and Climate at UiT The Arctic University of Norway, is the co-author of a study in Nature Geoscience examining this counter-intuitive climatic paradox: A 50% reduction in Arctic sea-ice cover has increased open-water and winter evaporation to fuel more extreme snowfall further south across Europe.


Anyone living on the leeward side of one of the Great Lakes in the U.S. could confirm this. Lake effect snow can be 10 times the snow found in adjacent regions from a winter storm.

HapHazard

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #390 on: April 14, 2021, 09:29:43 PM »
Anyone living on the leeward side of one of the Great Lakes in the U.S. could confirm this. Lake effect snow can be 10 times the snow found in adjacent regions from a winter storm.

As someone who lived through White Death, I can confirm. Although I wouldn't consider that one to be truly lake effect - it just comes to mind. What a storm! The main way I'd experience lake effect snow was via bands of snowstorms blowing off of Lake Huron, while driving north. It could be a clear crisp winter day, then suddenly you'd drive into a veritable blizzard, drifting across the highway, then a km or two later, back to previous conditions. Lather rinse repeat, all the way from St. Thomas to Collingwood.



Anyway, sorry for getting off-topic. So, FWIW, I'll end this post with an observation from where I live - central BC. The snow on our acreage has melted away the quickest it has since we've been here (15 years), and the horse's paddocks are already dry. Normally we still have some patchy snow on the ground here, and dealing with horrible mud until about May.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2021, 09:35:03 PM by HapHazard »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #391 on: April 17, 2021, 10:23:06 AM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

North America Melting surely properly underway.
Recently, even as new snow caused SCE to grow, SWE declined rapidly.

Eurasia SCE is declining rapidly while SWE is declining slowly.
A high pressure stretching from NW Europe to Central Siberia looks like it will strengthen and expend - this could mean dry sunny days (though very cold nights) to hasten melt.

Incidentally this will prevent Atlantic weather systems reaching land in Europe and Siberia and forcing Atlantic lows up into the Barents, Kara and beyond.
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