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Author Topic: Northern Hemisphere snow cover  (Read 35929 times)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #350 on: August 16, 2018, 10:35:22 PM »
bbr2314,
You actually wrote "Re-glaciation!" and ended "It's happening (?)"
(To the question, I'll sadly reply: I doubt it.)

I am curious whether Climate Reanalyzer's "Global Δ=-1ºC" is in relation to today or to 1850 (or 1700), given that we are currently at +1ºC over pre-industrial.  Do you have a link that says?
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magnamentis

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #351 on: August 16, 2018, 11:19:10 PM »
after two years of one extreme theories following the other and that not in one field of expertise but basically across the board of topics, i clearly see this as trolling and only recommend to stop replying, it's the only means beside a ban that can stop a troll with a healthy mind and
then there are others who pretend not to care. reminds me of POTUS behaviour, uttering
one utter BS after another, not fearing the consequences and not one single time admitting
an error or that it might perhaps be a bit far fetched, instead insisting to the bitter end and once the topic is worn out find another one.

if i only had time i'd start making a list from split CAB to swiss-cheese like greenland to .......

even though i found a way that most of it goes past me i stlll can read the replies and the quotes which at times renders the purpose of some features obsolete.

doubts are a very nice term to express that we know that the opposite is happening and increasingly though. it's best denier's practice to find one or two spots on the globe that behave differently and then claim that everything is the other way around.

last but no least before i wrote this i can claim that i tried with dozens of friendly hints to stop the
nerve-killing provoking posts without any benefit but to stand out from to mass like if opposition would be a virtue that's disconnected from the cause.


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oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #352 on: August 16, 2018, 11:33:06 PM »
Well said Magna. I'm trying to restrain myself and ignore but the speculative fiction is hard on the nerves.

Alexander555

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #353 on: August 17, 2018, 12:10:47 AM »
Maybe he really beliefs it. And if you don't belief him, is there no way to tell he's wrong. Like the places where it was colder this year. Maybe it's just about the condition of the polar vortex. Like we had cameleons falling from trees in Florida. That probably don't happens much, but it did this year. Or like in 2012 when the Bering Sea was much more frozen than normal.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #354 on: August 17, 2018, 12:17:08 AM »
Maybe he really beliefs it. And if you don't belief him, is there no way to tell he's wrong. Like the places where it was colder this year. Maybe it's just about the condition of the polar vortex. Like we had cameleons falling from trees in Florida. That probably don't happens much, but it did this year. Or like in 2012 when the Bering Sea was much more frozen than normal.
I do believe it. There are maps etc verifying these claims. However, ignorance is bliss, so I do not fault others who think I am "trolling" or whatever.

These are usually the same posters who express faith in humanity's ability to resolve AGW / catastrophic climate change as if their own behavior isn't part of the problem (and this is amongst posters at a site where scientific literacy is FAR higher than amongst the general public). I don't know how people think there will be any improvements when the impending changes due to agricultural shortages etc will overwhelm any efforts towards "greening" consumption. And even then, "greening" consumption in and of itself is sufficient to push planetary averages to +2-+2.5C vs. 1900 baseline due to dropping aerosols.

To the posters ranting about myself in the above comments: why has Quebec been colder than ANY OTHER SUMMER in recent times this year? Why did parts of the Midwest experience their coldest April on record, going back to 1895, and under GHGs that are +50% vs 1895? There is a simple explanation (+++precip = +++snow = +++albedo, combined with +++oceanic heat = Gulf Stream shutdown). But if you don't like the explanation we already have historical evidence of in the Younger Dryas, please make up your own theories (and of course the criticism will start with ....BUT LAKE AGASSIZ...!!! when GREENLAND has way more volume).

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #355 on: August 17, 2018, 12:23:31 AM »
bbr2314,
You actually wrote "Re-glaciation!" and ended "It's happening (?)"
(To the question, I'll sadly reply: I doubt it.)

I am curious whether Climate Reanalyzer's "Global Δ=-1ºC" is in relation to today or to 1850 (or 1700), given that we are currently at +1ºC over pre-industrial.  Do you have a link that says?
I believe it is vs. 1979-2000 avgs.



I would also like to note the posters ranting and raving ^^^ were the ones saying I was insane back in the spring. Now, months later and with extant snowcover remaining over Quebec, I have apparently "lost my mind" and am "trolling" when satellites confirm snow has remained extant over the summer.  :o

Alexander555

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #356 on: August 17, 2018, 12:54:05 AM »
To be honestly , i'm not convinced. Why was it the coldest April in the Midwest ? Maybe it was because there was very little ice in the Bering Sea. So the cold was not there, that's for sure. Otherwise it would have been frozen much further. And there was not that much ice near Svalbard. So both on the Pacific and the Atlantic side there was not that much ice . There was some tick ice on the siberian  side and on the side of Canada. But is that not more related to that polar vortex ?

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #357 on: August 17, 2018, 01:13:30 AM »
To be honestly , i'm not convinced. Why was it the coldest April in the Midwest ? Maybe it was because there was very little ice in the Bering Sea. So the cold was not there, that's for sure. Otherwise it would have been frozen much further. And there was not that much ice near Svalbard. So both on the Pacific and the Atlantic side there was not that much ice . There was some tick ice on the siberian  side and on the side of Canada. But is that not more related to that polar vortex ?
I think you are correct re: it also being related to ^^^. But the retreat of the ice in both the far NATL and Bering is also due to the shifting ocean currents / increase in oceanic heat content.

The question is whether we see a repeat this year. With all the insolation sopped up since 2017, I see no reason why we wouldn't, especially as we are likely to see a lower minimum than 2017 (and much less ice in both respective areas at minimum, as well as more accumulated heat).

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #358 on: August 17, 2018, 04:22:43 AM »
...
I am curious whether Climate Reanalyzer's "Global Δ=-1ºC" is in relation to today or to 1850 (or 1700), given that we are currently at +1ºC over pre-industrial.  Do you have a link that says?
I believe it is vs. 1979-2000 avgs.

[image showing Δ=0ºC for 1979-2000]
...
Thanks, bbr.  Were snowfields (or glaciers) growing in northern Quebec in 1700 the last time we were at Global Δ=-1ºC (compared with 'now').  Of course, other things were different then, like CO2 levels were lower.

Another question would be:  how in the world could we get to Global Δ=-1ºC (compared with 'now'), given ACC?  A couple regions in the world, sure, due to seriously changed winds or currents, while every place else broils or bakes, but global average temperature is basically going up.
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #359 on: August 17, 2018, 05:02:22 AM »
...
I am curious whether Climate Reanalyzer's "Global Δ=-1ºC" is in relation to today or to 1850 (or 1700), given that we are currently at +1ºC over pre-industrial.  Do you have a link that says?
I believe it is vs. 1979-2000 avgs.

[image showing Δ=0ºC for 1979-2000]
...
Thanks, bbr.  Were snowfields (or glaciers) growing in northern Quebec in 1700 the last time we were at Global Δ=-1ºC (compared with 'now').  Of course, other things were different then, like CO2 levels were lower.

Another question would be:  how in the world could we get to Global Δ=-1ºC (compared with 'now'), given ACC?  A couple regions in the world, sure, due to seriously changed winds or currents, while every place else broils or bakes, but global average temperature is basically going up.
There is no data I have been able to find re: 1700-1800 far northern glaciation / etc. I think there were basically only fur trappers in the area at the time and they probably didn't even get that far north (outside of Native Americans / Inuits).

And re: point #2 -- we definitely *will not* get to global -1C without major and catastrophic hosing. But I am not talking about global -1C, I am talking regionally in a specific area (NRN Canada). However, this could result in an albedo spiral that DOES result in a major drop in global temps, it will just take several decades for regional impacts to cascade elsewhere.

Alexander555

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #360 on: August 17, 2018, 09:31:49 AM »
If we would go to a global -1 , your theory well have a problem. Because than there will be less evaporation from the oceans. So where will that extra snow come from ?  We have been cutting down as much vegatation as we could. We build the cities as big as we could. It's going to be a cold desert i think , but no glaciers.

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #361 on: August 17, 2018, 12:03:36 PM »
Be afraid, be very afraid!

No matter that ENSO  neutral is due to become El Nino over the next few months,
No matter that it is suggested that natural temperature variation may well pump up AGW in the next few years,

Snow has persisted in some hilly bits of Quebec!!!!!

Glaciation is upon us !!!!!!! (Also imagine a Buddy on font size)

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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #362 on: August 17, 2018, 06:44:17 PM »
Be afraid, be very afraid!

No matter that ENSO  neutral is due to become El Nino over the next few months,
No matter that it is suggested that natural temperature variation may well pump up AGW in the next few years,

Snow has persisted in some hilly bits of Quebec!!!!!

Glaciation is upon us !!!!!!! (Also imagine a Buddy on font size)
You are being petulant and nasty for no reason. Both of those factors are likely to aggravate what is happening in Quebec due to +precip and +melt into the NE NATL. Your cold frozen corpse won't remember how rude you were on weather forums so why don't you try to add something of value instead of responding with attacks laced in bare-bones facts?

14-15 was a weak ENSO and led to the worst conditions we've seen in Eastern North America since the Little Ice Age (until this year, at least from April through summer, when 2018 was far colder across the NRN tier). I suspect +++ENSO actually has something to do with late extant snowcover across Eastern North America, I am not sure what yet, but the major event in 2015 followed the happenings of the previous winter, and I believe 1972 was also a very bad / cold snow year for Quebec (as in, there was a lot).

In any case, the models are now spreading snowfalls farther and farther across the Canadian shield by D10. Another notable development is being discussed in the melting thread, where ATeam seems to have ascertained that there has been a severe shift in the Beaufort Gyre, which could have released 20-30,000KM^3+ of freshwater toward the CAA and NE NATL (it will take months to get there). That amount of freshwater in such a short timeframe could cripple the NATL worse than what happened this year, especially if spring 2019 yields even more accumulated SWE than 2018.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #363 on: August 17, 2018, 08:53:47 PM »
The latest EURO ups the ante once more. Wow. Deep, and increasingly widespread snows now being forecast over the NRN tier of Quebec. It should only be another week or two until we see falls across the lower altitudes + latitudes as well. For August, this is quite remarkable IMO.


Brigantine

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #364 on: August 17, 2018, 09:20:49 PM »
How does the snow on the Barnes Ice Cap compare with the mountain snow patches on the Uganva Peninsula?

Over in Scotland they're doing a survey of mountain snow patches over the next few days. It's relatively touch and go whether any will survive the summer this year.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #365 on: August 17, 2018, 09:44:37 PM »
How does the snow on the Barnes Ice Cap compare with the mountain snow patches on the Uganva Peninsula?

Over in Scotland they're doing a survey of mountain snow patches over the next few days. It's relatively touch and go whether any will survive the summer this year.
Checking EOSDIS, 2018 has a higher albedo than any other recent year. It looks like it is actually growing in elevation in the middle, but overall expansion is not yet occurring. The mountains of Baffin Island are also noticeably whiter / more snow-covered this year vs. any other.

Alexander555

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Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« Reply #366 on: August 17, 2018, 10:34:52 PM »
He Gerontocrat, i know it's a little off topic. But when that El Niño kicks in. Does it also has an impact on that piece of sea between West-Africa and the north of South-America. Because the water there is already colder than normal for the entire year. And that area is a little bit the origine for the rain in Europe. And colder water is less evaporation. And so far we had a pretty dry summer. Or is the impact from El Niño only situated between Asia and South- America ? I think that some kind of US wheater service predicts a less than normal US hurricane season for this year, because that seawater below the equator between West-Africa and South-America is colder than normal.