Arctic CH₄ Levels Winter 2014—2015

[viddaloo]

Exciting end of the year.

[Bryantfinlay]

What's up with the volume making a steep decline like that? And is it temporary?

[OldLeatherneck]

This is as good a time as any to end my lengthy hiatus from active blogging.  Although, I did find time to follow 2014's melting season by daily review of  the many valuable charts on Neven's Blog and rarely finding the time or  inclination to make any relevant comments.

However, it was my concern over elevated levels of CH4 in the Artcic regions that led me to further study of Climate Change in general  and led my to find Neven's Blog in specific. So, here I am again.

I find it interesting to see charts that tend to correlate daily increases in CH4 levels with coincident decreases in Sea Ice Extent.  My background in engineering and data analysis tells me that this is an avenue that needs to be pursued further. My experience tells me not to jump on that theory too soon, because correlating CH4 levels and Sea Ice Extent on a  daily basis seems to be a bit of a stretch.

I postulated several years ago that the elevated CH4 levels in the Arctic were a cause of the extreme temperature anomalies during the "dark" months when there was less Hydroxyl (OH) to facilitate the oxidation of CH4, since OH is produced by the interaction of sunlight and water vapor.  A quick look at the DMI temp anomalies during the winter months seems to validate that theory.  However, that alone can not explain a daily causation of Extent Losses due to elevated CH4 levels.

I would recommend trying to look at temperatures, both sea and air, in the affected regions as well as general meteorological conditions.  It is a fascinating topic which warrants further study.  I'm looking forward to following this thread more regularly.

[viddaloo]

This is as good a time as any to end my lengthy hiatus from active blogging.  Although, I did find time to follow 2014's melting season by daily review of  the many valuable charts on Neven's Blog and rarely finding the time or  inclination to make any relevant comments.

However, it was my concern over elevated levels of CH4 in the Artcic regions that led me to further study of Climate Change in general  and led my to find Neven's Blog in specific. So, here I am again.

I find it interesting to see charts that tend to correlate daily increases in CH4 levels with coincident decreases in Sea Ice Extent.  My background in engineering and data analysis tells me that this is an avenue that needs to be pursued further. My experience tells me not to jump on that theory too soon, because correlating CH4 levels and Sea Ice Extent on a  daily basis seems to be a bit of a stretch.

I postulated several years ago that the elevated CH4 levels in the Arctic were a cause of the extreme temperature anomalies during the "dark" months when there was less Hydroxyl (OH) to facilitate the oxidation of CH4, since OH is produced by the interaction of sunlight and water vapor.  A quick look at the DMI temp anomalies during the winter months seems to validate that theory.  However, that alone can not explain a daily causation of Extent Losses due to elevated CH4 levels.

I would recommend trying to look at temperatures, both sea and air, in the affected regions as well as general meteorological conditions.  It is a fascinating topic which warrants further study.  I'm looking forward to following this thread more regularly.

Hi, OldLeatherneck,

have you considered looking at the other possible causation models? Ie a common cause for the drops in extent anomalies and the CH₄ releases, and extent drops causing CH₄ releases?

Till now it's only been fairly short events, but we may se more reinforcing feedback loops in the months to come.

[jdallen]

I've a basic question... What would the change in thermal transfer be for the changes in concentration? I'm thinking watts per meter here, as we can extrapolate that to look at ice changes, and possibly draw a relation (or not...) between that and the implied energy uptake in the volume change.

This time of year, keep in mind the drop in extent/volume represents a failure to freeze rather than a failure to stay frozen.

[crandles]

What's up with the volume making a steep decline like that? And is it temporary?

Here are the anomalies using real PIOMAS data rather than Vidd's estimates:

0.008
-0.008
0.009
0.015
0.024
0.015
0.003
-0.010
-0.008
-0.045
-0.043
-0.030
-0.030
-0.025
-0.003
0.015
0.016
0.005
0.024
0.007
0.021
0.009
-0.005
0.041
0.042
0.016
0.011
0.003
-0.011
-0.050
-0.051

Vidd's estimates follow the pattern quite well but the late decline doesn't start until 29th and the steep decline is on 30th and 31st Dec only. Note these falls of 50 Km^3 mean that PIOMAS volume is increasing by about 65 Km^3 instead of the normal 115km^3 for this time of year.

CT Area had reached a peak before the year end:

2014.9863  -0.4186075  11.5733480 
2014.9890  -0.4714838  11.5652838
2014.9918  -0.5082129  11.5669804
2014.9945  -0.5627278  11.5450277
2014.9973  -0.6914333  11.4627161
2015.0000  -0.7243919  11.4914885

If winds inhibit new ice growth around the edges of the pack and even push back the ice edges so that area goes down, but it is cold enough within the ice pack for ice to thicken, then volume can still be growing when area is going down. Perhaps in such circumstances ice volume isn't growing as fast as when area is increasing?

Anyway two days of an anomaly of 50 and 51 Km^3 do not seem much larger than 45 and 43 or 41 and 42 for two consecutive days earlier in the month. So it doesn't look all that odd.

[viddaloo]

Minor CH₄ peak: 2298 ppb. By Jan11 only 2007 has a bigger anomaly drop than 2015's 240,000 km², both draining ice through the Nares.



I'm thinking at lower mix ratios like today's peak, most of these anomaly drops will be geographically distant from the sources of the CH₄ maximums, as well as results of very different forces (winds, waves, cyclones, Nares "River" flow). However, when we get to the really big ch₄ peaks, 2600 ppb and up, it will be interesting to watch out for any so far unseen and more lasting feedback loops.

[viddaloo]

Major CH₄ peak: 2510 ppb. This is the 2nd highest mix ratio we've seen since this posting series started on November 1st 2014. The record here is 2546 ppb.

By Jan17 this year has now gained so much in sea ice extent during January that we are now just below average among the 2003—2015 IJIS years. Extent anomaly is almost zero, after having been as low as —268,000 km² on the 10th.

In terms of daily extent, we are now 4th lowest, but we have been lowest ever for one day, and also 5th lowest for a single day. The most common position has been 4th lowest, like today.

[viddaloo]

New CH₄ peak: 2440 ppb. This is only the 2nd highest peak in January, and if it was December, it would have been 3rd highest.

[viddaloo]

We have a new record drop in extent anomalies during January, at –156199 km² from the start of the drop on the 23rd.

[viddaloo]

I've seen no discussion of causes for this latest 3–day drop — which is not just a drop in anomalies, but also a drop in extent every day for 3 days:

Code: [Select]

2015/24 (13387581/13385153) 2015/25 (13385153/13365565) 2015/26 (13365565/13330821)

Obviously not CH₄ I'd say, though the lack of discussion might suggest just that.

[viddaloo]

New CH₄ peak: 2428 ppb.

We also have a new record drop in extent anomalies during January, at –191411 km² from the start of the drop on the 23rd.

[lanevn]

Obviously not CH₄ I'd say, though the lack of discussion might suggest just that.

Obviously lack of discussion because lack of interest to ASI. It is not interesting to track if ASI this year will be 5th or 7th low. Low chances for record low => low interest for ASI.

[viddaloo]

lanevn, there are high chances for record low in 2015, see my update this morning.

[viddaloo]

January, full month (preliminary).

[viddaloo]

New CH₄ peak: 2433 ppb.

[viddaloo]

Does anyone know whether it's normal for Mauna Loa to cease its CH₄ reporting for the Winter on February 7th? Or why it has stopped this year?

[AbruptSLR]

Does anyone know whether it's normal for Mauna Loa to cease its CH₄ reporting for the Winter on February 7th? Or why it has stopped this year?

I do not know, but I have observed that NOAA is frequently much slower in posting CH4 concentrations than CO2 concentrations, perhaps because of the use of flasks or perhaps because of the desire to apply corrections to outlier data and/or to smooth-out variability.  I suspect that more data will be posted within at least a few weeks.

[viddaloo]

Thanks, ASLR. Seems strange DoC should be so uptight about just methane; both holding back these Hawaii in situ measurements and deleting sat measurements after only 3 days.

[viddaloo]

Shush! The computers are sleeping!



No update from the MetOp satellite today because of the torment of our Lord!