2015 El Niño?

[wili]

Since I started the 2014 thread, I guess that makes it my responsibility to start the new one. Thanks though to sleepy for pointing out that the old thread was becoming quickly irrelevant.

Lord D. Vader posted a graph that showed very high predicted values for mid 2015: the mid-range dashed line near +2 with a clutch of models at +3 or above.

What do we think about latest NOAA forecast for NINO3.4-index? Answer: highly interesting!!!

But the current graph on the NOAA PDF (p.26) shows more a moderate upswing over that period. The latter seems to be a corrected version.



 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Can any veteran El Nino watchers tell us whether such corrections are frequent at that site (or just illuminate us as to what is going on with this discrepancy)?

[weatherdude88]

The ENSO forecasting skill of NOAA for the Spring season is almost zero. in addition the IRI/CPC ENSO Consensus forecast which NOAA uses for its ENSO probabilities shows an anomaly of around +0.5 Celsius. I would put zero stock in the non PDF corrected CFSv2 ENSO forecast.

tell us whether such corrections are frequent at that site (or just illuminate us as to what is going on with this discrepancy)?

Meteorologist and the majority of the folks in these forums also do not realize the CFSv2 forecast that they have been posting on forums or on their websites is not the models official forecast. When you model any real world problem you need to map the observed PDF to the forecast PDF to make an accurate forecast. (You need the raw model output to start with before you can correct it.)

The difference is bolded.

[Gray-Wolf]

some more on the changing face of El nino;

http://news.anu.edu.au/2014/11/13/ocean-primed-for-more-el-nino/

Once the Trade wind anom drops back to average what will we have in store?

[crandles]

Can any veteran El Nino watchers tell us whether such corrections are frequent at that site (or just illuminate us as to what is going on with this discrepancy)?

I think there have always been differences between the pdf corrected and non corrected versions in at least the last several months though I can't claim to have religiously checked every week. Sometimes the differences are more noticeable than others. Sorry I can't help with illuminating what is going on or why.

[wili]

Thanks all for contributions to this fledgling thread and for attempts to illuminate the apparent discrepancy. I'm feeling a bit too dim this morning to fully grok all the explanations right now--perhaps after another cuppa?

[deep octopus]

Thanks for opening a new thread wili. I think an annual ENSO discussion would be a great routine to track the ocean developments and keep tabs on the latest research. The 2014 thread has generated a lot of great discussion and I encourage anyone who is just joining the discussion to check out the wealth of scientific studies, datasets, and comments that are presented there.

Levi Cowan has an updated Niño 3.4 regional SST anomaly chart, which shows the latest reading from 06z November 14th at +0.925 C. This is sustaining the chance that winter 2014-2015 will see an El Niño event, but it's not certain.

[wili]

Hear, hear! I have found these discussions very informative indeed. Thanks all for past awesome posts, and thanks ahead of time for the posts yet to come which I'm sure will be illuminating as well!

[bigB]

Provided in the first attachment are the OSCAR plots of equatorial Pacific ocean surface currents centered on Nov 11th, which show that (a) the NECC (North Equatorial Countercurrent) is still flowing anomalously stronger than normal (from west to east) across much of the equatorial Pacific, except in the eastern Pacific where it's near normal, and (b) the eastern Pacific portion of the SEC (South Equatorial Current) has strengthened some since last week with anomalies in that region indicating a stronger than  normal east to west flow. During an El Nino event, relaxed trades and/or westerly winds/anomalies typically cause the NECC to strengthen and the SEC to weaken (El Nino configuration). This allows warm surface water in the western equatorial Pacific to migrate/slosh towards the east and pile up in the eastern Pacific. The opposite is true during La Nina. NOTE: The NECC is usually located just north of the equator and near the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), and flows from west to east. The SEC is usually located pretty much right on the equator to about 20S and flows from east to west. The current configuration is suggestive of mostly a weak El Nino other than whats occurring in the eastern equatorial Pacific.

The second attachment using OSCAR plots from 1997 (top), 2009 (center), and 2006 (bottom) is meant as a rough example only of how equatorial Pacific ocean surface currents might appear during El Nino events of different strengths. All three examples are from early/mid November. The scale showing the strength of means and anomalies for 1997 is slightly different from that of the scale used for 2006 and 2009 (but not enough to make a large difference). There's no way to fix that but in this case I don’t see it mattering all that much. One can still get the general idea.

wili,

If the “2014 El Nino?” thread had never existed, I likely would not have have found the Arctic sea ice forum/community. I came across that thread (and this forum) back in early April while searching for info related to the possibly unfolding El Nino event of 2014. After lurking and just reading the posts for a few weeks, I quickly became hooked, and had to become a member. I've enjoyed being a part of that thread and have learned so much. Becoming a member of the Arctic sea ice forum has opened my eyes up to how serious climate change and global warming really is. I can't be the only viewer out there who has been impacted this way by the Arctic sea ice forum. Thank you wili for both El Nino threads, Neven for this forum, and all the members who have had a profound impact on my life (seriously)!

[Neven]

Thanks for the kind words, bigB. And thanks to all for keeping the close watch on ENSO.

I for one hope there won't be any El Niño for some time to come, just to see how the hiatus-pushers explain record-breaking global SATs without El Niño and solar activity (but with negative AMO/PDO, bad coverage of Arctic temps, and China and India pumping out aerosols like there's no tomorrow).

[Lennart van der Linde]

Thank you, Neven!

[wili]

Thanks bigB. Good to have you on board. And of course none of us can possibly ever thank Neven enough for this great forum--I learn something every day.

[bassman]

Thanks Neven and everyone else.  This forum is a daily read.  Also Neven, you spoke exactly what I have been thinking.   Something else I have been thinking about.  What are the odds of a La Niña happening before another El Niño?  I keep thinking that scenerio is very unlikely under current conditions.

[bigB]

Attached are the latest (Nov 15) TAO plots of equatorial subsurface temps and anomalies, which shows that anomalies embedded in the core of our latest Kelvin wave are starting to pushing into the +5.0 deg C range (near 155W). +4.0 degree anomalies extend from at least 165W to 125W. This is actually a fairly decent size/strength Kelvin wave.

Bassman,

This is only my opinion, but I suspect that we may already be a few years into a period (of about 5-6 years) in which either weak-moderate El Ninos or ENSO-neutral conditions dominate with essentially NO La Ninas. This has been the general pattern over at least the past 30 years (EDIT: I'm referring to the pattern in the 2nd and 3rd attached images. Notice how there's small periods of about 5-6 years where El Nino or ENSO-neutral conditions dominate). Anything is possible though. Notice how in the second attached image of long term equatorial SSTA between 3.5N and 3.5S, there is a clear pattern that can't be missed (see black boxes). When I say anything is possible, I'm suggesting that this pattern could change at any moment, but there are no signs of that happening at this time. All other equatorial SSTA data for the last 30 years shows this pattern as well, but this image shows it very clearly. Also notice how the 86-88, 97-98, and  09-10 El Ninos were all preceded and followed by La Ninas.   

SIDE NOTE: The NCDC PDO index value for the month of October came in at +1.28. The highest NCDC PDO index value since January 2003. I suspect that the JISAO PDO index value for October will be one of the strongest in recent years as well.

EDIT: I've attached a third image (TAO plots of equatorial Pacific SST's and anomalies from 1986 to present) to provide another view of the observed ENSO pattern mentioned above.

[Bruce Steele]

Maybe the PDO will continue in positive numbers for the next five years and maybe not. Although all the forecasts are for something that looks like a double dip , two year El Nino the number of times that has happened in the past are rare. The one occurrence  that sticks for me was 82-83 and 84-85 was a strong La Nina, biologically anyhow. My personal memories for the Southern California region called the Channel Islands stretches back into the early seventies and you can take anecdote however you want but the long periods of neutral to positive El Nino periods were in the middle of the PDO flip that started ~ 78-80 and continued until ~ 2000.  We did see strong La Nina at the start and end of that period and  witnessed  the middle being dominated by the El Nino or neutral events.
 The PDO does play a large role in all of this and I will not be sold on the PDO flip having already occurred until we are a few more years into this. I would really like for someone to explain why they have confidence in where we are in the PDO cycle because the two I have lived thru and remembered are 1978- 2000( 22 years ) and 2000-2014 ( the current era ~ 14 years ) although I don't remember 45- 78 ( 33 years ) or earlier events the current 14 years just seems too dang short.
 I don't want to be a dick , I just want to see the rational for such a short cold water PDO relative to the long warm water PDO's I have lived thru or the sardine /anchovy  proxy that has dominated fishing history in Calif. for the last hundred/thousand years. None of the well documented PDO flips were so short as the potentially most recent one. If the argument is extra heat input into the surface waters will change the  trend line I would like to see more support for that premise .
 For now I will venture that 2016 will be a La Nina and our PDO signal will get weak. Whether we actually have entered the warm water phase of the PDO won't be decided until after that (IMO)2016 La Nina. 
     

[AbruptSLR]

Bruce,

I believe that bigB was talking about a pattern within the ENSO cycle that would be superimposed on top of the PDO cycle.  The University of Washington has the following description of the periodicity of the PDO cycle:

Quote: "Two main characteristics distinguish PDO from El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): first, 20th century PDO "events" persisted for 20-to-30 years, while typical ENSO events persisted for 6 to 18 months; second, the climatic fingerprints of the PDO are most visible in the North Pacific/North American sector, while secondary signatures exist in the tropics - the opposite is true for ENSO. Several independent studies find evidence for just two full PDO cycles in the past century: "cool" PDO regimes prevailed from 1890-1924 and again from 1947-1976, while "warm" PDO regimes dominated from 1925-1946 and from 1977 through (at least) the mid-1990's. Shoshiro Minobe  has shown that 20th century PDO fluctuations were most energetic in two general periodicities, one from 15-to-25 years, and the other from 50-to-70 years.
 
http://ingrid.ldeo.columbia.edu/%28/home/alexeyk/mydata/TSsvd.in%29readfile/.SST/.PDO/
"
Thus while the PDO has two general periodicities (15-25 and 50-70 years) the PDO events typically persist 20-30 years.

Part of the difficulty with projecting ENSO events is the large number of cycles with different periodicities that can influence the initiation of any given ENSO event, including: global warming, the IOD, the IPO, the PDO and ENSO specific cycles such as that discussed in the article: "Why does El Niño always peak around Christmas and end quickly by February to April?"


http://phys.org/news/2013-05-rhythm-el-nino.html


The first attached image is from the article and has the following caption:

"This is a schematic figure for the suggested generation mechanism of the combination tone: The annual cycle (Tone 1), together with the El Niño sea surface temperature anomalies (Tone 2) produce the combination tone. Credit: Malte Stuecker"

Therefore, the cycle that bigB is talking about might (or might not) be a mode function of a variety of different functions.

Best,
ASLR

[bigB]

Bruce,

I was just pointing out that when looking at historical data of equatorial Pacific SST's over the past 30 years or so (especially in the Nino 3.4 region), there seems to be a noticeable pattern/trend regarding ENSO cycles. I made no reference to the PDO in that paragraph. I mentioned the PDO index separately. The only reason I even mentioned the PDO in that post was because I had just learned of the relatively strong NCDC PDO index value that day, and though it to be noteworthy. Instead of stating “side note” before mentioning the PDO index, I should have stated “on a separate note”. Letting the reader know that I was not intending to relate my observations of the ENSO cycle pattern to the PDO. You suggested that in your opinion, we may see our next La Nina by 2016, and that would be pretty much inline with what I was suggesting. Please re-read the following quote taken from my last post.

This is only my opinion, but I suspect that we may already be a few years into a period (of about 5-6 years) in which either weak-moderate El Ninos or ENSO-neutral conditions dominate with essentially NO La Ninas.

Note that I said we may already be a few years into a period of about 5-6 years. That would suggest that we may see our next La Nina around 2016 or 2017. That's just my opinion.

Thanks,
BigB


Separately, the following link leads to a recent article from NOAA's ENSO blog, which briefly explains the difference between raw and corrected CFSv2 data:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/betting-climate-predictions

[Bruce Steele]

BigB, Sometimes it just takes a little help for me to get it. After reading what ASLR had to say and going back over your earlier post I am more on track. Pretty amazing to me that there is as much pattern in the 3.4 region as those charts show. Almost makes one think there might be some  predictability to the El Nino/ La Nina cycles. Might even venture years we might see large events
aka 97-98.   Maybe another four years till we get there?  Sorry to make extra work for you and ASLR.   

[bigB]

Bruce,

It's all good .

[Sleepy]

Bruce, ENSO has actually been less predictable in the last decade. There were recently an international conference in Guayaquil, Ecuador.

http://www.ciifen.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=117&Itemid=172&lang=es

"The past 30 years has seen significant progress in our ability to observe, understand and predict ENSO. Yet, in the past decade, ENSO prediction skill has declined with significant consequences on how to prepare for and cope with the associated climatic impacts. This decline in prediction skill has occurred despite new theoretical approaches, significant advances on physical parameterizations of subgrid-scale processes, and better and more robust computer power. In addition, there are major unsolved questions about the influence of climate change on ENSO both in the current climate and in the future."

[AbruptSLR]

First, I would like to state that I believe that the primary reason that our skill for predicting ENSO events is dropping even while we are using more advanced forecasting tools (as Sleepy points-out) is due to climate change that is rapidly changing the prior PDF corrections applied to current model forecasts.

Second, if what I said above is true then the attached NOAA PDF corrected forecast (issued Nov 17 2014) of an El Nino event extending from 2014 into 2015 may be erring on the side of under-predicting the probability of a coming El Nino event.

[AbruptSLR]

According to the linked Reporting Climate Science article, the attached image (see caption below) and the following extract, indicate that the warming of the North Pacific Ocean may mean the end of the "faux hiatus"; which will likely mean an increasingly positive PDO and increasing probability of El Nino events for some years to come:

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/warming-pacific-drives-global-temperatures.html

Caption: "Figure 1: a) NOAA Sea Surface Temperature anomaly (with respect to period 1854-2013) averaged over global oceans (red) and over North Pacific (0-60oN, 110oE-100oW) (cyan). September 2014 temperatures broke the record for both global and North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures. b) Sea Surface Temperature anomaly of September 2014 from NOAA's ERSST dataset. Courtesy: Axel Timmermann"

Extract: "Timmermann used the phrase “quite remarkable” to describe what has been happening and Trenberth called the events “extraordinary”. Both men told reportingclimatescience.com that they believe this warming may mean the end of the so called pause, or hiatus, in global warming - which, according to some measures, has been going on since the mid-1990s."

[bigB]

I just wanted to state that I don’t believe that the pattern I've pointed out could be used to make any sort of accurate/reliable predictions regarding exact arrival time, strength, or longevity of any one ENSO cycle (if it could, agencies like the BOM, NOAA, etc... would already be using it). Looking at the images I've provided above (and the attached image), notice that the strength, longevity, and spacing between each ENSO cycle is different. Therefore, it would be basically impossible to accurately and reliably predict/forecast the exact arrival time or strength of the next ENSO event using the pattern I've pointed out. However, starting around the mid 1980's, there seems to be alternating periods of about 5-6 years where a moderate-strong El Nino is sandwiched in between two moderate-strong La Ninas. Followed by a period of about 5-6 years where weak-moderate El Ninos or neutral conditions dominate. So, IF the pattern were to continue then we would be able to at least say that right now we may be in a period where El Nino or neutral conditions are likely to dominate (at least until 2016-2017). Some important factors to keep in mind are that this pattern has only been occurring consistently since the mid 80's. Very importantly, there are many other cycles that can influence ENSO (i.e IOD, PDO, climate change, etc...) as was pointed out by ASLR. So in short, I would say that while this pattern may or may not be useful in showing a (possible) trend, it can NOT be used to predict exact arrival time, strength, or longevity of any one ENSO cycle. Attached is the same NOAA ESRL plot of long term (1985-2014) equatorial SSTA between 3.5N and 3.5S, which breaks down the pattern yet another way. Notice that since about the mid 80's, La Nina conditions dominate for 5-6 years, then El Nino or neutral conditions dominate for 5-6 years.

[bigB]

First attachment: TAO plots of monthly equatorial subsurface temperature means/anomalies for November, 2014. NOTE: While these plots are labeled as the “monthly mean” for November, they are actually only the mean of the first 16 days of November 2014.

Second attachment: TAO plots of monthly equatorial subsurface temperature means/anomalies for November of the following El Nino years: 91, 94, 97, 02, 04, 06, and 09. During November of these years, El Nino conditions were well under way. The available TAO data only goes back to 1991.

Third attachment: TAO plots of equatorial subsurface temperature means/anomalies for November of the following years: 93, 95, 96, 99, 01, 08, 11, 12, and  13. During November of these years, either ENSO-neutral or La Nina conditions were under way. El Nino conditions were in play during early 1995, but by November, they had long since peaked.

The plots for November 2014, appear to share the most similarities with the plots from November during developing El Nino years (plots in second attachment). It also appears that during November of 1993 and 2012 (two “almost” El Ninos), subsurface anomalies were either weak or already dissipated. The fact that subsurface anomalies during November 2014 are up at almost +5.0 deg C, suggests to me that this year has a very good chance of going the distance (becoming an official weak El Nino).

[bigB]

JISAO PDO index value for the month of October came in at +1.49.

[icefest]

The Australian BoM now says there is a 70% chance of an el nino happening:

[bigB]

The attached OSCAR plots of equatorial Pacific ocean surface currents means/anomalies, centered on Nov 16, shows that a weak/patchy El Nino configuration is still holding on. Since the last update centered on Nov 11, easterly winds have picked up between 160E and the dateline. As a result, a portion of the SEC (South Equatorial Current) has restrengthened while a portion of the NECC (North Equatorial Countercurrent) has weakened. If easterly winds continue in that region, it will further weaken the El Nino configuration (or flow of equatorial ocean surface currents that support El Nino conditions). Continued easterly winds would also be a threat to the steady flow/trickle of warm water currently downwelling in the western Pacific and heading towards the eastern Pacific. (See the latest subsurface imagery in the posts above and note the continuous flow of warm anomalies flowing from the western Pacific to the eastern Pacific at a subsurface level).

[bigB]

Provided in the first attachment are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of November 19th, the daily SOI value was down to -14.19, the 30 day avg was up to -10.10, and the 90 day avg was down to –8.04. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino.

The second attachment of the CDAS Nino 3.4 index and global SSTA map, updated at 12Z on Nov 19, shows that SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region have been holding at around the +0.8-1.0 deg C range (per this data). It also shows that warm anomalies are continuing to build off the coast of Peru and Chile, but have weakened some off the west coast of mainland Mexico (Puerto vallarta/Acapulco region).

The third attachment of TAO and UAlbany zonal wind anomaly data, shows that easterly winds/anomalies are still play in the western Pacific, and are to continue through about November 25. An easterly wind event such as this does NOT support a building El Nino event (due to the effect on ocean surface currents and warm water downwelling). The fact that this is even happening this late in the game (mid-late November of during a building El Nino event) is almost an anomaly in and of itself. If the walker cell (which ASLR points out quite often and is one of the last pieces of the puzzle that has not yet fallen into place) was flipping or near flipping it's extremely unlikely that this would be happening. It certainly doesn’t support an El Nino walker cell.

[AbruptSLR]

The following link leads to a NOAA article about the interaction of climate change, rainfall and the ENSO until the end of the century.  The attached image (see caption below) indicates that under RCP 8.5 rainfall in the Equatorial Pacific Should increase at least by 50% by 2100:

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/climate-change-and-enso-take-2

Caption: "Rainfall in 2081 - 2100 compared to 1986 - 2005. Changes in mean rainfall under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the period 2081-2100 expressed as anomalies with respect to 1986-2005. Hatching indicates regions where the multi-model mean change is less than the natural variability (computed from 20-year averages taken from pre-industrial control experiments)."

See also:

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/climate-change-may-impact-el-nino-rainfall-patterns.html

[AbruptSLR]

The linked reference discusses research indicating that El Nino events can increase the intensity of Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones (Typhoons):

F.-F. Jin, J. Boucharel and I.-I. Lin, (04 December 2014), "Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones intensified by El Niño delivery of subsurface ocean heat", Nature 516, 82–85,  doi:10.1038/nature13958.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v516/n7529/full/nature13958.html

Abstract: "The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) creates strong variations in sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific, leading to major climatic and societal impacts. In particular, ENSO influences the yearly variations of tropical cyclone (TC) activities in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins through atmospheric dynamical factors such as vertical wind shear and stability. Until recently, however, the direct ocean thermal control of ENSO on TCs has not been taken into consideration because of an apparent mismatch in both timing and location: ENSO peaks in winter and its surface warming occurs mostly along the Equator, a region without TC activity. Here we show that El Niño—the warm phase of an ENSO cycle—effectively discharges heat into the eastern North Pacific basin two to three seasons after its wintertime peak, leading to intensified TCs. This basin is characterized by abundant TC activity and is the second most active TC region in the world. As a result of the time involved in ocean transport, El Niño’s equatorial subsurface ‘heat reservoir’, built up in boreal winter, appears in the eastern North Pacific several months later during peak TC season (boreal summer and autumn). By means of this delayed ocean transport mechanism, ENSO provides an additional heat supply favourable for the formation of strong hurricanes. This thermal control on intense TC variability has significant implications for seasonal predictions and long-term projections of TC activity over the eastern North Pacific."

Also see:

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/el-nino-fuels-intense-hurricanes-says-study.html

[Lord M Vader]

Latest CFS NOAA forecast indicates weakly anomalies to persist in the Pacific basin over Xmas, mainly just east of date line which should push our current EKW eastward. ASLR & BigB: will this be enough to make the EKW to surface? (See attached image no 1). By New Year and the first week of January the trade winds seems to be rebuilding with negative anomalies encompassing most of the basin with one exception. That exception is found just east of Philippinia where some beneficial westerlies will build up (See attached image no. 2).

The big question now is if this means that our current EKW will surface, then followed by a reactivated trade winds and a new WWB by the beginning of next year? And given the picture of image no. 2 the MJO may travel east and be responsible for the forecast?

//LMV

[AbruptSLR]

LMV,

Per the attached NOAA image of the Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for Dec 9 2014, the current EKW is already starting to surface in the Eastern Eq. Pac..  Certainly, the atmospheric conditions that you discuss may contribute to sustaining our weak El Nino-like conditions (which have been degrading recently).  However, I reiterate my previously stated opinion that our weak El Nino-like conditions (in my opinion we cannot have a real El Nino event until the Walker Cell flips) until summertime when a strong El Nino will likely occur.  Also, I believe that the MJO will not contribute to any potential flipping of the Walker Cell for at least 1 to 2 months from now (at the earliest).

Best,
ASLR

[Lord M Vader]

ASLR: thank you for this info!

The picture you have attached is clearly interesting with regar of the large warm pocket of warm water (1-2 deg warmer than normal) just east of Philippinia at 100-300 m depth. A strong WWB sometimes next year should push all that warm water eastward..

I also don't think we'll see a full blown El Niño until early summer. The main question is what the unpredictable spring barrier will show us..

//LMV

[Gray-Wolf]

Don't we think we are seeing the first rumblings of the 'flip' in the walker cell?

 The past couple of years have seen the trades falter in late winter/early spring and promising Nino conditions begin only for resurgent Trades to squish things back to near Nina conditions by June/July? This time the trades appeared weaker than of late with near threshold Nino conditions continuing through summer and into autumn? Should this weakening of recent trends continue then this later winter/early spring would see another ramp up of Nino conditions but instead of resurgent Trades flattening things in June/July we should see atmospheric cooperation further intensifying the low grade Nino?

Its my tendency to take a very wide view of things that leads me to this conclusion but to me a see a blending of natural variation and Mother Natures attempts to fend off warming? The increased trades has enabled heat to be sequestered into the deeper ocean and not linger in contact with the atmosphere ( and so warm it) this ocean subduction also leads to cooler waters flushing to the surface and further impacting atmospheric temps. this was never a 'long term fix' but merely a period that would allow past collaborations of warming naturals not to force global temps up to the next stable 'warm climate'

As it is the forcing that promoted this behaviour was not just natural but had our warming included in it ( through the 80's and 90's) and so Nature will accept defeat and allow climate to step up to the next 'stable' climate setting as her naturals begin to flip positive? The Trades appear key here? They have driven the IPO negative ( deep ocean warming) and driven Nina after Nina whilst piling up the warm pool in the west Pacific. Once they falter ( as the basins reach parity and the walker cell returns to normal) we might expect both the warm pool to relax back into the ocean (Modoki Nino?) and the IPO to flip to positive ( ocean surface warming and so heat exchanges into the atmosphere?) . With Nino in control the PDO will also keep posting positive values and so two of the 'naturals' will have flipped positive and we will be in Nino conditions.

But just how much of the anomalous warm pool should we expect to relax back into the ENSO regions? There is an awful lot ( and depth) of water in that 'pile' that will be left with no visible means of support as the trades drop back?

[AbruptSLR]

Gray-Wolf,

While I may agree with your logic in the long-run, in the short-run the two attached University of Albany projected wind anomaly plots from 5N to 5S in the Pacific show no indication that the Walker Cell is in the process of, or will likely, flip in the near future.  Who knows what will happen in the late Winter or Spring of 2015, but I am still expecting a slow build-up to a strong El Nino (with a flipped Walker Cell) in the Summer of 2015.

Best,
ASLR

[Lord M Vader]

Westerly Wind Burst to emerge in the beginning of the year?! In addition, it seems reasonable to believe that our current EKW will surface by late December as positive wind anomales seems to be evolvong around the Date line and until New Year. If one compare the data with my second last post, the anomalies seems to be bigger and the easterlies also doesn't seems too big by the beginning of the next year.

So, we are clearly going to get more warming up of the Pacific basin. I don't see any reason for why neutral conditions would take place in 2015. No, as ASLR and many other of us here at the forum, there is a good chance for a strong El Niño next year. Given that nothing spectacular happens, lik a volcano eruption, I don't see any reason for why not only 2015 but also 2016 will be hotter than 2014.

There is also very reasonable to believe that the 2015 hurricane season in the Atlantic will be just as inactive as 2014 with the reversal being true for the North Pacific basin and especially the Eastern North Pacific.

The hiatus seems to be dead, long live the hiatus!

//LMV

[Gray-Wolf]

Bump!

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot was issued by the BoM on New Years Day (with data through Dec 30th Sydney Time) in Australia indicating that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.5 (and thus is still neutral):

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that for the second day in a row the 30-day moving average SOI is -5.5:

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot issued by the BoM today indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -5.6:

[AbruptSLR]

First, for those whose want to have a brief (4 minute) overview of the ENSO phenomena you can what the video provided by the BoM (from Dec 2014) at the following link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzat16LMtQk&feature=youtu.be&html5=1

Second, the attached plot issued by the BoM yesterday shows that the 30-day moving average SOI moved down to -5.8 (and thus is still neutral):

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued by the BoM today, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -6.0:

20141205,20150103,-6.0

[AbruptSLR]

The linked article discusses the influence of global warming on El Nino-like oceanic response:

Yiyong Luo, Jian Lu, Fukai Liu, Wei Liu, (2014), "Understanding the El Niño-like oceanic response in the tropical Pacific to global warming", Climate Dynamics

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-014-2448-2

Abstract: "The enhanced central and eastern Pacific SST warming and the associated ocean processes under global warming are investigated using the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2). The tropical SST warming pattern in the coupled CESM can be faithfully reproduced by the POP2 forced with surface fluxes computed using the aerodynamic bulk formula. By prescribing the wind stress and/or wind speed through the bulk formula, the effects of wind stress change and/or the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback are isolated and their linearity is evaluated in this ocean-alone setting. Result shows that, although the weakening of the equatorial easterlies contributes positively to the El Niño-like SST warming, 80 % of which can be simulated by the POP2 without considering the effects of wind change in both mechanical and thermodynamic fluxes. This result points to the importance of the air–sea thermal interaction and the relative feebleness of the ocean dynamical process in the El Niño-like equatorial Pacific SST response to global warming. On the other hand, the wind stress change is found to play a dominant role in the oceanic response in the tropical Pacific, accounting for most of the changes in the equatorial ocean current system and thermal structures, including the weakening of the surface westward currents, the enhancement of the near-surface stratification and the shoaling of the equatorial thermocline. Interestingly, greenhouse gas warming in the absence of wind stress change and WES feedback also contributes substantially to the changes at the subsurface equatorial Pacific. Further, this warming impact can be largely replicated by an idealized ocean experiment forced by a uniform surface heat flux, whereby, arguably, a purest form of oceanic dynamical thermostat is revealed."

[bigB]

The attached image is from Stormsurf.com and shows the GFS 90 hr forecast of surface level wind and SLP in western equatorial Pacific. Per the GFS model, a strong WWB is to begin developing in the far western Pacific within the next day or so, and is projected to persist through through at least Jan 12th. It appears that the active phase of the MJO is beginning to move into the far western Pacific where it may constructively interfere with other types of atmospheric tropical waves (i.e. convectively coupled Kelvin and equatorial Rossby waves). This would set up an extremely favorable environment (of enhanced convection and low level vorticity) for TC development in that region. Note the projected twin cyclones north and south of the equator in the attached image. If this were to develop as forecast, it would likely initiate a new Kelvin wave (of the oceanic variety). Even if a new Kelvin wave were to form right now, it would NOT be of any benefit to the currently fading borderline El Nino conditions (due to the time it would take to reach the eastern Pacific). However, it would certainly be of benefit to El Nino conditions if they were to rebuild later this year as projected by a few of the ENSO models. Something to monitor.

[deep octopus]

Happy New Year to all on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum!

The tropical Pacific has been cooling for the last several weeks. From a peak of 1.0 C in November, the central equatorial Pacific region (Niño 3.4)--commonly cited as a sweet spot for defining El Niño and La Niña states due to its adjacency to the western Pacific warm pool and the central of convective activity--has cooled to 0.5 C in the last week according to NOAA. The Niño 3.4 region has remained at a level of warming equal to or greater than 0.5 C for the 12th week in a row.

            Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 26NOV2014     22.4 0.4     25.9 0.9     27.6 1.0     29.5 0.9
 03DEC2014     22.3 0.0     25.8 0.7     27.4 0.8     29.4 0.9
 10DEC2014     22.8 0.2     26.0 0.9     27.5 0.9     29.4 0.9
 17DEC2014     22.9 0.1     26.0 0.8     27.4 0.8     29.4 1.0
 24DEC2014     23.1-0.2     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.3 0.9
 31DEC2014     23.6 0.0     25.9 0.6     27.1 0.5     29.2 0.8

[wili]

" The Niño 3.4 region has remained at a level of warming equal to or greater than 0.5 C for the 12th week in a row."

Shouldn't that mean that we are on the verge of being able to call it an official El Nino event? Isn't it 3 months with +0.5 temps in that region? I know that the Japanese have already called it, but should we shortly expect similar such pronouncements now by BoM and NOAA?

[deep octopus]

On the verge in one sense. The way NOAA defines an El Niño event, we would need to maintain this level (on average anyway) for five consecutive overlapping seasons. Should an event be declared, it will have begun during the SON season and would need to be maintained through at least JFM (essentially through the end of March). Getting to the 12th week is important, but the atmosphere has still had trouble properly syncing with the ocean, which jeopardizes the chance that this warmth can continue.

[wili]

Thanks for the clarification, deep octopus. I had thought it was only three overlapping seasons.

[deep octopus]

I actually started to say three (out of conventional intuition), before I reread NOAA's definition and edited my comment. But just so there's no further confusion, the definition of a season (for the sake of argument regarding climate) is any consecutive three-month period. You're right in that if an El Niño were to officially span from September through March, that would cover three seasons as we know them conventionally (fall, winter, spring.) Evidently, that amounts to five seasons under the climate/meteorological definition. In this case, a season would entail SON, the next season would then be OND, etc.

[AbruptSLR]

I actually started to say three (out of conventional intuition), before I reread NOAA's definition and edited my comment. But just so there's no further confusion, the definition of a season (for the sake of argument regarding climate) is any consecutive three-month period. You're right in that if an El Niño were to officially span from September through March, that would cover three seasons as we know them conventionally (fall, winter, spring.) Evidently, that amounts to five seasons under the climate/meteorological definition. In this case, a season would entail SON, the next season would then be OND, etc.

As far as I know, a "season" is any three consecutive months.  So an example of five consecutive overlapping seasons starting on Sept 1 2014 is: SON, OND, NDJ, DJF, JFM.  Thus, to get an El Nino event, the average Nino 3.4 must exceed +0.5 in each of those consecutive overlapping seasons, and if the average Nino 3.4 in any one of those consecutive overlapping seasons falls below +0.5 then you start counting over again.

[deep octopus]

All, speaking of which, NOAA has updated its ONI index for the OND season with a value of 0.7 C. So we have achieved the second out of five consecutive seasons that would be required for an official El Niño event to be declared.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml